Wednesday
Oct292008
Election Update: Keeping the Horse Race Alive
Wednesday, October 29, 2008 at 22:57
It appears some hearts are a-flutterin' today at the prospect that the Presidential race on November 4 may not be over by bedtime on the East Coast of the US, let alone here in Britain. Four of the eight new national polls (Rasmussen, Gallup Traditional, IBD/TIPP, and GWU/Battleground), including two of the three with the largest samples, have Obama only up three points on McCain.
This quicker heartbeat isn't just the symptom of a broadcast media hoping for more drama (and ratings) approching that of 2000 and 2004. Some colleagues, both in Britain and the US, are thinking that the Democrats --- for all their spending and push for voter registration --- haven't solidified their voting base.
All the same, I have to be a bit of a party pooper. The issue is not that those "other" polls (including the Gallup Expanded, which is more likely than the Traditional to be relevant in a year of high voter turnout) have Obama with a steady 5-7 point lead. Let's even set aside that FiveThirtyEight.com, comprehensive and by far the shrewdest assessor of what polls can and can't indicate, has the gap still holding at just under 6 percent.
To paraphrase Brother Bill Clinton's folks, it's the states, stupid. And there is little movement towards McCain in the nine battleground states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada) that will decide this contest. Yes, he has closed to level-pegging with Obama in Missouri and he's only 1 1/2 points out in Indiana. It's a minor yes --- even with Missouri and Indiana in his column, which we projected on Monday, the Republicans are more than 130 electoral votes adrift.
If anything, the unexpected shifts today are away from the Republicans. RealClearPolitics, for example, has excitedly moved Georgia --- yep, the red-state Georgia where my relatives live --- into the toss-up column. I hasten to add that the other top sites, including FiveThirtyEight, still have the Peach State firmly Republican --- it appears that RCP has made its move because of one poll that has Obama down only a point and on the basis of strong early voting returns in Georgia in favour of the Democrats.
That last point is important, however, not necessarily for Georgia but for other states. FiveThirtyEight has noted an unprecedented early turnout. In the states of Louisiana, Georgia, and North Carolina, the early returns already exceed 2004 totals. And, just as important, that surge is favouring Obama.
The trend isn't just at state level. In key counties in Ohio, the pivot state of 2004, early returns are two to three times the entire 2004 turnout. If Obama is performing as well in those returns as in the state, his lead would be more than enough to wipe out the narrow deficit that defeated John Kerry in Ohio in 2004.
That's a big if, of course, as it assumes that all other things will be equal on Election Day. Of course, McCain could surprise me with an unexpected surge. Of course, there may be some truth to the legend of the "Bradley effect", with declared Democratic voters suddenly turning Republican as they enter the voting booth.
But "may" doesn't translate into likely. A friend sounded off earlier this evening that pollsters don't seem to be mentioning "margin of error" in their reporting of samples --- given that the margin for even a medium-sized poll is 3 percent either way, it could more than wipe out Obama's putative lead in key states. It's a fair point, but when you match up an accumulation of polls with readings of other factors from organisation to high voter registration for the Democrats to the early voting patterns, the case for an Obama victory --- and an early victory --- on 4 November continues to be close to open-and-shut.
This quicker heartbeat isn't just the symptom of a broadcast media hoping for more drama (and ratings) approching that of 2000 and 2004. Some colleagues, both in Britain and the US, are thinking that the Democrats --- for all their spending and push for voter registration --- haven't solidified their voting base.
All the same, I have to be a bit of a party pooper. The issue is not that those "other" polls (including the Gallup Expanded, which is more likely than the Traditional to be relevant in a year of high voter turnout) have Obama with a steady 5-7 point lead. Let's even set aside that FiveThirtyEight.com, comprehensive and by far the shrewdest assessor of what polls can and can't indicate, has the gap still holding at just under 6 percent.
To paraphrase Brother Bill Clinton's folks, it's the states, stupid. And there is little movement towards McCain in the nine battleground states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada) that will decide this contest. Yes, he has closed to level-pegging with Obama in Missouri and he's only 1 1/2 points out in Indiana. It's a minor yes --- even with Missouri and Indiana in his column, which we projected on Monday, the Republicans are more than 130 electoral votes adrift.
If anything, the unexpected shifts today are away from the Republicans. RealClearPolitics, for example, has excitedly moved Georgia --- yep, the red-state Georgia where my relatives live --- into the toss-up column. I hasten to add that the other top sites, including FiveThirtyEight, still have the Peach State firmly Republican --- it appears that RCP has made its move because of one poll that has Obama down only a point and on the basis of strong early voting returns in Georgia in favour of the Democrats.
That last point is important, however, not necessarily for Georgia but for other states. FiveThirtyEight has noted an unprecedented early turnout. In the states of Louisiana, Georgia, and North Carolina, the early returns already exceed 2004 totals. And, just as important, that surge is favouring Obama.
The trend isn't just at state level. In key counties in Ohio, the pivot state of 2004, early returns are two to three times the entire 2004 turnout. If Obama is performing as well in those returns as in the state, his lead would be more than enough to wipe out the narrow deficit that defeated John Kerry in Ohio in 2004.
That's a big if, of course, as it assumes that all other things will be equal on Election Day. Of course, McCain could surprise me with an unexpected surge. Of course, there may be some truth to the legend of the "Bradley effect", with declared Democratic voters suddenly turning Republican as they enter the voting booth.
But "may" doesn't translate into likely. A friend sounded off earlier this evening that pollsters don't seem to be mentioning "margin of error" in their reporting of samples --- given that the margin for even a medium-sized poll is 3 percent either way, it could more than wipe out Obama's putative lead in key states. It's a fair point, but when you match up an accumulation of polls with readings of other factors from organisation to high voter registration for the Democrats to the early voting patterns, the case for an Obama victory --- and an early victory --- on 4 November continues to be close to open-and-shut.
Reader Comments (6)
I'm trying to ignore the national polls from here on in: thus far they've been a useful temperature-taker for the nation, but as the day itself approaches I doubt their relevance. There was another piece on polling in one of the US papers (Times or Post, I forget which) yesterday which suggests that a key variable in different poll groups has been sampling. If you accept the Obama campaign's view - backed up by turnout in the primaries - that blacks and first-time voters will be unusually numerous this year, then his lead is strong. If you stick with 2004 turnout demographics, McCain does a lot better. That, as far as I know, is the difference between the Gallup and Gallup (expanded) polls, which show big differences in the Obama lead. Personally, I'm disposed to accept the Obama view that this year's voters will be different from 2004's, and consequently to accept the 'expanded' version as closer to the truth. And also to focus on the key states: still looking good in Ohio and Florida - lots of early voting in the latter, aided by Crist's 'stab in the back' decision to extend the polling hours during which Obama can rack up his early votes. (In all seriousness, he seems like quite a good guy as Republicans go: one to watch for 2012).
Finally, and lest we forget: should it come to it, winning by three points is still winning. It may be the margin of error, but if every poll says the same guy is up then that's error discounted, I reckon.
I'd like to think I'm not just being complacent, but I'm prepared to go out on a limb and have egg on my face if this turns around. I think the present situation is as close to an Obama lock as one could have asked for at this stage.
Yes-winning by three points is still winning! Obama is more than the margin of error ahead in Ohio and way more than the margin of error ahead in other key battleground states (Pennsylvania +9.5!) Granted we are in unchartered territory re: race but how likely is it that there are sufficient vote switchers to overcome the kinds of leads Obama has racked up in places like Minnesota (+10.8) and NH (+12.4)?
And expect a large conservative turnout in Arizona: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/us/politics/30marriage.html?oref=login Is this a ploy to guarantee McCain wins his home state?!?
And expect a large conservative turnout in Arizona: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/us/politics/30marriage.html?oref=login Is this a ploy to make sure McCain doesn't lose his home state?!?
@Maria- sorry, your last comment got marked as spam and I only just noticed! Sorry about that, still learning...
Yes I agree the national polls are not the big story (and Rasmussen have got Obama's lead back to 5 today), it's all about the electoral college and the battleground states.
With that in mind, hot off the press, this is one of the latest polls out from Pennsylvania, showing Obama's lead down to just four (they've all pretty much been double-digit so far).
http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/30/pennsylvania-hope-for-mccain/
Maybe an outlier, but seems to hint there may be some mileage in the McCain's campaign's claim that Obama's vote is soft in Pennsylvania. Obama wouldn't be spending so much time there if he wasn't worried as well. If McCain can pull off a miracle flip in PA and hang on to FL and OH, Obama will need a tricky clean sweep of Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia (I think probably Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina are harder for Obama to win).
Exit polling from Nevada early voting also suggests that minorities and young voters have not been especially active so far. I am inclined to respectfully disagree Adam. I think it is quite possible that the pollsters have overestimated the turnout of young voters and minorities, and underestimated the ability of McCain to energise social conservatives (especially with Palin on board), and basically pull off a repeat of Bush's 2004 'coalition'. I also seem to recollect that the Kerry campaign in 2004 kept going on about these mythical hordes of energised young and minority voters, but when it came to the crunch they didn't turn up to the vote. I'm willing to be proved wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it...
Considering the position of McCain, given his woeful campaign management, inept performance by Palin, and hostile electoral environment, to still be in with an outside shot of the White House is pretty remarkable.
Crist 2012 seems like a good bet to me too...