Tales From The Presidential Campaign

Election Talk: The Republican Alamo

Some Republicans were talking up a slight bump in the polls this weekend for McCain-Palin --- translation: instead of being 5-6 points down in national surveys, they were "only" 4-5 points down.

FiveThirtyEight.com, excellent as always, put this in perspective by noting that to overhaul Obama, McCain would have to keep picking up a half-point each day, every day to the election. There's a more important point, however: at this point, it's not a question of the national poll but the numbers in each "swing" state.

So, to get to the nitty-gritty, McCain's limited national gain plays out at state level with a movement back to him in places like West Virginia and Indiana, which now lean back to the Republicans. These states, however, should never have been in question --- at least in any scenario where the GOP has a chance of winning --- they should have been "safe". So, to be blunt, McCain is only clawing back a bit of his lost territory.

Contrast this with the important "swing" areas. McCain-Palin - in my humble opinion - have no hope of taking any state that went Democratic in 2004. In three states which were seen as possible Republican gains only a month ago --- Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota -- Obama is up 10-12 points in polling.

That means McCain has to hold all but two (and possibly all but one) states that Bush took four years ago. But in eight of these, McCain is trailing by a clear margin in three (Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico) and down 2-4 points in five (Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, and Ohio). And this doesn't even include Indiana and, bizarrely, North Dakota which could still be in play.

The media line over the last 48 hours is that the Republicans may make a last grandstand effort by throwing resources into Pennsylvania to pray that state away from the Democrats. If true, this is either desperation or mad genius, as Obama is up 11 points in latest polling.

More likely is the scenario that the Republicans are going to the Alamo - a last, frantic defense to keep the eight states listed above. But there are tales that they have given up on Colorado, which means it comes down to clinging onto the other seven.

Possible? In a politics of "never say never", sure. But you do know what happened to the defenders of the Alamo.

Election Talk: The Backfire of the Culture Wars

The immediate furour over Colin Powell's weekend endorsement of Barack Obama missed a key dimension of the reasons for his decision. The issue was not just Obama's "proving himself" or, conversely, the inexperience and weaknesses of Sarah Palin but the Republican strategy of pitting "good Americans" against others:

Now, I understand what politics is all about.  I know how you can go after one another, and that's good.  But I think this goes too far....I'm also troubled by, not what Senator McCain says, but what members of the party say. And it is permitted to be said such things as, "Well, you know that Mr. Obama is a Muslim." Well, the correct answer is, he is not a Muslim, he's a Christian.  He's always been a Christian.  But the really right answer is, what if he is?  Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America.  Is there something wrong with some seven-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president?  Yet, I have heard senior members of my own party drop the suggestion, "He's a Muslim and he might be associated terrorists." This is not the way we should be doing it in America.

I feel strongly about this particular point because of a picture I saw in a magazine.  It was a photo essay about troops who are serving in Iraq and Afghanistan.  And one picture at the tail end of this photo essay was of a mother in Arlington Cemetery, and she had her head on the headstone of her son's grave.  And as the picture focused in, you could see the writing on the headstone.  And it gave his awards--Purple Heart, Bronze Star--showed that he died in Iraq, gave his date of birth, date of death.  He was 20 years old. And then, at the very top of the headstone, it didn't have a Christian cross, it didn't have the Star of David, it had crescent and a star of the Islamic faith.  And his name was Kareem Rashad Sultan Khan, and he was an American. He was born in New Jersey.  He was 14 years old at the time of 9/11, and he waited until he can go serve his country, and he gave his life.

I still Powell has a lot to answer for, notably his failure to stand up to others in the Bush Administration and stop the mad quest for executive power and a war in Iraq, but I think his words should be a prominent reply to the political poison of "us" v. "them", a poison which has not only threatened electoral politics but wreaked havoc in the name of US foreign policy.

And there are other encouraging signs. Sarah Palin has finally apologised -- well, kind of - for her  praise of "pro-American" parts of the United States (presumably those favouring the Republicans) and implication that other areas were just a bit suspect. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann's call for her colleagues to be investigated and classifed by the media as "pro-American" and "anti-American" has given a boost to her opponent both in finances and polling.

American fingers crossed that this continues.

Election Talk: McCain's Fightback- An Unexpected Endorsement

"Al-Qaeda will have to support McCain in the coming election," said a commentary posted Monday on the extremist Web site al-Hesbah, which is closely linked to the terrorist group. It said the Arizona Republican would continue the "failing march of his predecessor," President Bush.