Election Talk: The Campaign and The Races in the Senate

States of Play

To paraphrase Saturday Night Live’s classic 1970s sketch on General Francisco Franco, “The McCain-Palin campaign is stubbornly clinging to death.”

There are no significant shifts in likely state outcomes from Monday. RealClearPolitics has only two changes. New Hampshire is back in play, i.e., “leaning” rather than “solid” Democratics, primarily on the basis of two polls that have Obama only 4-5 points up vs. previous readings of 7-15 points. The problem here is that, in such a small state, polling samples can be quite volatile. Even if New Hampshire is now up for grabs, with 4 electoral votes, it’s not a key player despite all the “as New Hampshire goes, so goes the United States” clichés.

Much more fun is Arizona --- that’s right, Big John’s home patch --- moving into “leaning” rather than “solid” Republican. It’s a mirror image of New Hampshire , with a 21-point poll gap suddenly coming down to 5-8. Again, I don’t think the state will shift on 4 November although, as FiveThirtyEight shrewdly notes, the spillover effect from Obama’s rally in Arizona is that it bolsters his position in neighbouring New Mexico .

No changes on FiveThirtyEight, which keeps both Arizona and New Hampshire safe for the respective favourites. Reading the state polls, however, they now have McCain down to a 3% chance of triumphing on Election Day.

Just for Comparison

In case you’re suspicious of a pro-Obama bias here, Watching America is a bit more cautious on his prospects than either FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics. Our 338-200 prediction matches up with 351-187 on FiveThirtyEight and an Obama landslide of 375-163 on RCP.

Turning to Congress

We’ll try and do a full run-down on both the Senate and House before next Tuesday, particularly as they have been largely overlooked by the British media (Anne Applebaum’s column in the Daily Telegraph is today’s exception).

Here’s a snapshot of a quite interesting year for Senate contests, which features a convicted felon (Republican Ted Stevens of Alaska, found guilty yesterday on seven counts of violating Federal ethics laws), a comedian/best-selling writer (Democrat Al Franken of Minnesota), former Cabinet member (Republican Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina), and several long-serving Republicans in the fights of their electoral lives.

The current Senate is balanced at 49-49 between the two parties, although the Independents Joseph Lieberman and Bernie Sanders are with the Democratic Caucus (in the case of Lieberman, very “technically” with the Democratic Caucus). However, with the “Bush effect” kicking in big-time, an Election Day bonanza for the Democrats is possible.

There are 35 races this year (because of the six-year term of Senators, only one-third come back to the voters in every two-year electoral cycle). The 2002 success of the Republicans now turns against them, as only 12 of the seats are held by Democrats. More importantly, all of those Democratic seats are safe.

In contrast, no less than eleven of the Republican seats are now vulnerable, including --- in a late turnaround at the polls --- that of the Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. In a country where an incumbent Senator used to be only at risk if he is found naked in a park, is outed by his mistress, or “does a Stevens” and gets jail time, this level of vulnerability is extraordinary.

This, however, is no ordinary year. In three of the Republican seats, the incumbent is not standing. Those can be handed to the Democrats (Mark Warner in Virginia, Mark Udall in Colorado , Tom Udall in New Mexico ) right now. In New Hampshire, incumbent Republican John Sununu has been trailing former Governor Jeanne Shaheen by about nine points In Oregon, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith is trying to claw back a four-point deficit to Jeff Merkley with a clever tactic: he’s claiming common ground with Barack Obama in the hope that Oregonians, who lead the nation in their disapproval of George W. Bush, will see him as a bridge-builder with the next President.

Three other seats should have been safe Republican holds but, in the last few weeks, have suddenly turned into real electoral races. Roger Wicker is down to a 1-2 point lead in some polls in Mississippi . Saxby Chambliss in Georgia , who got into the Senate in 2002 thanks to an atrocious smear campaign by Bush’s political spinners against the Vietnam veteran Max Cleland, is only two points up. And Republican Senate leader McConnell now finds he is only a couple of points ahead in Kentucky . It makes for interesting viewing (and, for partisan Democrats, hopes of a night comparable to the 1997 Labour thrashing of the Tories in Britain ), but all three races should stay with the Republicans.

That leaves three Senate races in the balance. In a race which, for politicos with no other life, has been fascinating train-wreck viewing, Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina has been tumbling against Kay Hagan --- she’s now two points down and can be marked as the underdog. In Alaska, Felon Ted Stevens is now one point behind Mark Begich --- FiveThirtyEight is confident that the Democrats will take the seat but Stevens now only has the look and morals but also the rising-from-the-dead quality of a vampire.

Last but definitely not least, in the race which may capture the essence of the last seven Bush years, Al Franken --- Saturday Night Live member and author of books such “Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot” and “Lies and the Liars Who Tell Them” --- has come from way back to a realistic shot of unseating Republican Norm Coleman, best known for getting his political backside handed to him when he questioned George Galloway over Iraq. This seat was held by the Democrat Paul Wellstone, one of the finest persons ever to serve in Congress, until he died just before the 2002 election, so it has a special resonance for activists.

How do the numbers work out? At a maximum, the Democrats will be up 60-38 (with two Independents) in the new Senate but a more realistic “high hope” is a 57-41 split (if Hagan, Begich, and Franken triumph).

In practical terms, that isn’t an overwhelming turn of fortunes in the Congress. The media’s one grasp of this is that the Democrats get a “lock” on the Senate if they have 60 seats, as they can prevent another Republican filibuster to block legislation. That, however, is a relatively minor consideration, testimony less to political reality than to the fact that Jimmy Stewart and the movie Mr Smith Goes to Washington still defines the Congress for some onlookers. What is clear, however, is that the Democrats don’t need Joe Lieberman anymore to ensure a majority. So they solidify their hold on Committee chairmanships and key posts.

More importantly, a gain of eight seats for the Democrats will be a powerful symbol in its own right, complementing that of an Obama Change. After close to a generation of supposed defining of American values by the Republicans --- from Ronald Reagan to little Bush --- the other party has the chance to take responsibility. Whether it does, in a meaningful rather than rhetorical way, will do a lot to answer the question of “What is America ?” for those of us outside the United States .