The Latest from Iran (2 October): Back to the Homefront

NEW Iran Video: Football & “Ya Hossein! Mir Hossein!”
Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Big Win for Tehran at Geneva Talks
Latest Iran Video: Nuclear Official Jalili on CNN (1 October)
Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Obama Remarks on Geneva Talks
The Latest from Iran (1 October): From Geneva to “Unity”?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

1525 GMT: The student group Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat has called for the freeing of 15 of their members, saying their arrests will not help the volatile atmosphere at universities: "Failure to release the students immediately is like putting a match to a warehouse of dynamite".

1410 GMT: Report that 15 members of the student group Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat have been arrested at Jamshidiyeh Park.

1340 GMT: Little Politics, Big (Football) Politics. As the match ended 1-1, Esteglhal and Persepolis fans were chanting, "We don't want football full with politics!" Seems that there are suspicions, after the 7th draw in a row, that matches are being fixed to avoid conflict.

We've posted a short video of crowd chanting during the match.

1310 GMT: Protest and Football. Despite the heavy security presence at the Esteglhal-Persepolis match, the crowd broke out into chants of "Ya Hossein! Mir Hossein!" and flashed victory signs.

Latest score: 1-1.

1220 GMT: From the Esteghlal-Persepolis football match: "Impossible to chant during game. Security forces everywhere. Plainclothes mixed with ordinary supporters." There are reports of 15-20 arrests.

At halftime, the score was 0-0.

1135 GMT: Nothing but Defense Here. The line at today's Friday Prayers has been political and unsubtle: Iran's weapons are for its defense against evil enemies, and Iran will "never ignore its nuclear rights".

1125 GMT: Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party detained since June, has been hospitalised with complications from hernia and undergone surgery; he is now in intensive care.

1110 GMT: On the Iranian weekend, the news is slow. Arguably, the most important event today is not Friday Prayers but Iranian's biggest football match, the derby between Esteglhal and Persepolis. Hundreds of security personnel are reported to have been mobilised in Azadi Stadium.

0930 GMT: The Shouts from the Peanut Gallery. And now President Obama's biggest test --- bigger than his manoeuvres with/against Iran --- begins. The Wall Street Journal screeches, "Springtime for Mullahs".

Unlike our own concern over the effect of the talks on the internal situation in Iran, there is no substance behind the Journal's polemic, "This supposed fresh start in Geneva only gives them new legitimacy, and new hope that they can have their bomb and enhanced global standing too."

0840 GMT: Now This is Interesting. It is reported that, after he met with Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi to discuss the post-election situation,  Ayatollah Safi-Golpaygani has had separate meetings with the Mayor of Tehran, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, and Iran's Prosecutor-General, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie.

0740 GMT: After the days of built-up drama surrounding the Geneva talks (we've posted a special analysis, President Obama's statement, and last night's TV appearance by chief Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili), attention may return to Iran's internal situation today, although so far it has been a quiet morning for Friday prayers.

There is another move on the clerical front, with Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani announcing his telephone conversation with Ayatollah Dastgheib, another prominent critic of the Government. This follows a face-to-face discussion, reported yesterday, between Grand Ayatollahs Safi-Golpaygani and Makarem-Shirazi.

It also appears that the Revolutionary Guard is in a spot of bother over its economic plans. It is reported that the consortium linked to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has not been able to put up the first payment for its purchase of 51% of Iran's state telecommunications company.

Comments

[Afshin]

@ 0840 -

Now I dont know if I had also seen this on EA but I have heard many a rumour that there is a plan to replace A.N with the mayor of Tehran "Baqer Qalibaf". This would be an Interim goverment till new elections. The rumour says that Mousavi has demanded this. He doen not want to take office without an Interim Goverment in between and without new elections.

"Baqer Qalibaf" is a technocrat and considered a very capable man, He was once elected the 7th best Mayor of the world if I am not mistaken. He also reorganised the Police force and did what is thought to be a great job at it. He was originaly from the S.L camp and thought by many to be the main contender for the presidencay 4 years ago. He did a so so campaign and positioned himself not as a conservative but as a technocrat and relied also on his military background being a pilot of the airforce and an ex-Revolutionary Guard. However to everyones surprise at the time S.L betrayed him and went for A.N instead. Since the betrayel he has openly taken more distance from the S.L and is now mostly a pragmatic centrist then a Principlist/ conservative with rumours of close ties with Hashemi.

[Scott Lucas]

Afshin,

Qalibaf as the replacement for Ahmadinejad is the theory of a high-profile activist on Twitter and on his blog. I haven't seen the evidence for this yet, but Ayatollah Safi-Golpaygani's meeting with Qalibaf may indicate that the Mayor has some role in the attempt at political reconciliation.

S.

[MD]

A more insightful article in WSJ than the one you mentioned
in your post today ( I think ) : http://tiny.cc/LxRtS

[Afshin]

@Scott

Its all talk I guess so far, but the meeting today is the first sign of involvement from Qualibaf, he has managed to keep him self away from the spotlight during this whole situation, which if this was to be true, makes alot of sense.

[MD]

"he has managed to keep him self away from the spotlight"

Except for an audio that was leaked , or was "let" to be leaked about two months ago where Ghalibaf criticizes A.N severely . Also emphasizing that he has no ambition for a presidential position , Ghalibaf further explains that his discord with A.N is not because he is envious of his position.

Well, maybe if he is given the responsibility of carrying
the interim government ,
the audio could serve as proof that there is
no personal revenge involved ,
rather he is doing his duty to save and preserve the system ?

[whereismyvote]

@ all thinking of "Ghalibaf"
Folks;
Mr. Ghalibaf is a bit more competent than AN, and is from a different faction of the Pasdaran. He was even a pilot for a while, but let me assure you that he is a Pasdaran man non the less. He may be different in his management style, his delivery and his poise and polish. Other than that he is very much the same. Since taking office, as Mayor of Tehran, he has been very busy, using the City of Tehran to borrow heavily in Switzerland and China. In return he has been shoveling this money in the form of civil projects to Pasdaran fronted companies to do reconstruction of the city infrastructure. If we have to sit here and discuss the pro and con of the two, then I rather go with Ghalibaf.. As I said, I only voted to get anyone but AN. So I will be happy with anyone in government but AN. However lets be clear about one thing. Ghalibaf is no angle. He is also a corrupt Pasdaran man but he is a far more competent manager than AN, he has a military style of management, but is more results oriented, his cronyism is limited to Rafsanjani clan and the Pasdaran clan and he does know how to dress... He is known to love Hakoupian (Iranian mens cloth designer... the equivalent of Saks or Armani in Iran, with suits ranging in the $1000 plus) suits and Armani sunglasses.
Mr. Ghalibaf made one appearance during the post election protests before. When we had the whole Mashai affair and AN was under fire from the SL. He made a very public complaint that Mashai is only where he is because he is related to AN. He further used extremely rude language to refere to anyone who does not follow the instructions of the SL .

Now this plan has only one problem. Mr. Ghalibaf is extremely ambitious, and if he takes the realm of a government, interim or not, I doubt he will resign unless by virtue of force. Also the other way to intrepid this would be to see it as the Pasdaran saying, no we are not going to give up power, but are willing to change leadership and put a different manager in charge.

[MD]

Quoting from this blog : http://tiny.cc/8XBVx

" what is most plausible in Shahbazi's article (and recent work) is this: That Iran is run by several Mafia that are operating under the umbrella of the ministry of Intelligence. And that once one gang goes down, it turns into activist journalism exposing the other! And vice versa! This very well applies to Shahbazi himself!"

As whereismyvote says , any change is positive - even within the system. It'll create a gap within the groups and the power struggle will eventually wear them down.

[Alex]

You are sure that the chant regarding politics and football didn't relate to the opposition chanting or the security forces? Just checking..

[Hamid]

@whereismyvote: right on re Ghalibaf. I'm very skeptical that we can be saved by any typical politician like him or Raf, but anything that weakens AN & Khamenei is good. However, it's essential that some dissent starts within the IRGC if we're goin to avoid a military dictatorship.

[Somebody]

Two points:

First, about Ghalibaf: do you recall the video of Rafsanjani entering the Eid-e-Fetr prayers and refusing to stand next Ahmadinejad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNd4y6kn-Dk

In the second row behind where 'The Hash' places himself are Ghalibaf and IRGC commander Aziz Jafari chatting and smiling at each other. Okay, I know this doesn't mean much but I thought it might add to the discussion. Also possibly of note is the cold greeting Jafari offers Raf as he takes is place.

Second, regarding the seven draws in a row: According to this site:

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/topics/anatomy_of_soccer_match_myths.htm

there's a %30 percent chance of draw in your average football match. That means that there is only a %2 (0.3^7) chance of seven legitimate draws in a row at the start of the season. Not very likely..

[ange paris]

Hello everybody
Firstable I apologize for my broken english, my first langage is french; I would like to share in your comments and say that I participated to a lecture in senate in paris, 2 or 3 years ago, given by a famous french researcher called Mr Hourcade; he's a friend of Galibaf and has travelled to iran many times and he said that he's very nationalist and brave and during the iran irak war he took back Khorramshahr in one day and he was called Napoléon at that time and why noy if he will stay; he 's young , good manager, clever, pilot of airforce and well educated and presentable, especially if he's well dressed ,said by wherismyvote ; so if he takes the place of AN why not, I will be happy !! sorry if you need translation !!

[Hamid]

@Ange Paris - Between "Pont d'Arcole" and "Waterloo", Napoleon's cost to France was horrific. We need solid democratic institutions that support a thriving middle class that can count on the rule of law. No authoritarian "hero" leader will give us that.

[ange paris]

hamid,
he was called Napoléon because of his bravery and efficiency; I don't think you have to be authoritarian absolutely !! anyway he is very successful in france, very popular among the french people(the intellectuals)

[whereismyvote]

Interesting speech given by Ghalibaf... It is clear that him and his wing of the IRG majorly find flaw w AN. More interesting that he says he was brought to run the city on orders of SL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0PEHnSeW2c

[MD]

@Hamid,

Well said .

[Yseut]

@ Hamid, oui absolutely, well said

[Yseut]

About Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat student group and leaders arrested
(see 15.25 )

http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2009/10/15-student-leaders-arrest.html

[Yseut]

Who Is in Control of the Islamic Republic? by Jerry Guo
"....can the Revolutionary Guard and its allies sustain their tightening grip on
the Islamic Republic?" Interesting piece by a former analyst in 'investment
bank in Tehran', good summary (for outsiders ;- ) )

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/features/letters-from/letter-from-tehran-irans-new-hard-liners

[Megan]

Since you are all busy dividing the land before the battle is won, let me please throw my hat in by saying there we go again contemplating replacement of one mafia family with another. Trading one corrupt guard backed by mullah regime with another corrupt one will not demolish Evin prison and all secret and not so secret variations of it and it certainly will not bring constitutional protection for Iranians. I do not want to know what kind of designer underwear these thugs put on; I want to know if they respect freedom of self expression for the rest of the country. I want to know if they even comprehend the meaning of inalienable rights of every man, woman, and child to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

I know some of you will(at least one person would because he always must have the last word) call me “idealistic”, “unrealistic”, ” uncompromising”, or other variations of it. Other may say; we need to first learn to walk before running the 100 meter dash or may say in politics you have to be pragmatic. Please spare me the lecture, I do not need one. But if still some cannot overcome their impulse; my answer to such comments will be how many more generations need to be sacrificed as we tinker with this mess of an outdated system of government. Three decade is not enough? Or better yet fourteen centuries of enslaving people and force-feeding them nonsense and keeping them hostage for the promised paradise isn’t enough? Yeah, I let you read my hand. I am 100% for separation of state and religion and I want that NOW and not in the near future. Why wait for the future that will never come. The Iron is hot today.

Yes, I have a dream that one day I can say Iran Constitutional Republic. Yes, I have a dream that one day I see Iranians call themselves First an Irani and Second their religious affiliations or beliefs. I know my dreams may not be realized in my life time because not all Iranians share my dreams. I am yearning to know how many do.

[ange paris]

dear Megan
I think everybody , here in EA , who shares and gives his or her idea thinks like you; from begining of this unrest, followed by murders ,rapes and emprisonnements, my country has become my obssession; at first I have cryed everyday it was the folklore of each day, but what can I say it's that what you want, it's is too soon for this country as said Afshin, step by step we have to go
Hugs

[Hamid]

@ Megan – I fully agree, but strategically we may want to take it step by step. In late 1978 a Jebheh Melli ("National Front", a remnant from Mossadegh's coalition) senior leader told me that they were using Khomeiny “just” as a "bulldozer" to get rid of the Shah. Another (a close aid to Sandjabi) told me that although the Jebheh Melli had no grass root organization or mass volume publication, the day after the shah left they'd "buy or confiscate either Kayhan or Etelaat" and use it to support and promote the drive to democracy. Well, we all know what happened next. The lesson is that one has to consider the macro-trends when setting strategies and Khomeiny played his cards superbly, gathering a vast array of people and opinions under his banner. If he had explicitly said early on what he really meant by “Islamic Republic” and “velayat faghih”, fewer people would have demonstrated or striked in 1978-79. This regime, just as the shah’s in the 1st half of 1978, is losing credibility and legitimacy. Regardless of the fantastic lies and exhortation of AN, Mesbah Yazdi of the the IRGC’s head thugs, fewer and fewer people believe them. This is absolutely excellent and our best avenue is to continue the drive for the truth as that will further peel off more layers from their credibility. The IRGC is indeed a mafia, but their foot soldiers are still part of the people (like the shah’s army was) and ultimately, their discomfort and the pressure of their friends and family will make them question the validity of their orders. I’m afraid that without such disenchantment, the regime will have the means to stay through brute force.
I suggest that we leave the form and shape of the future constitution alone for now and just focus on the core issue of rule of law and legitimacy through a referendum. If the majority, to my immense surprise, truly and freely votes to maintain a religious republic, then people like me and Megan will just have to accept that.

[Somebody]

@Megan [...]Or better yet fourteen centuries of enslaving people and force-feeding them nonsense and keeping them hostage for the promised paradise isn’t enough? Yeah, I let you read my hand. I am 100% for separation of state and religion and I want that NOW...[...]

You are not the only one. I certainly agree with that. But the real question is "what do Iranians in Iran want?" and "how do they get there?"

The way forward Iranians have adopted is that of strengthening civil society and challenging the system through mass non-violent protest and civil disobedience. The demands they are making are for their rights, including freedom of expression and self-determination, and for independence and democracy.

I support their choice of strategy. They learned from the mistakes of 1979. Violent struggle, guerilla groups and revolution only replaced one totalitarian regime with another. The people understand that revolution doesn't bring about democracy. They understand that a strong civil society must be present and engaged in politics in order to bring about and maintain freedoms and democracy. And they understand that until basic rights such as the freedom of expression are won, there can be no meaningful constitutional reform anyway.

Calling for a more uncompromising stand for the movement in Iran is akin to the attitude of some western radical leftists who reject the Iranian movement based on its Liberalism and lack of radical anti-capitalist credentials. These leftists don't realize that in Iran where the most basic freedoms taken for granted in the west are not to be found, Liberalism _is_ a radical agenda and a way forward (check out 'Reading Legitimation Crisis in Tehran' by Danny Postel).

Furthermore, there are the political realities---meaning the actual thoughts and opinions of Iranians in Iran---to be considered. If the movement grows too radical it risks losing support from large portions of society and loss of support from people is a huge setback for any popular non-violent movement. That's why the focus has been on issues that everyone can agree on. That way all Iranians work together in expressing their opposition to the government.

But when it comes to lower level decisions, let's not assume that every Iranian of every geographical region and socio-economic class has the same opinions as we do. Especially those of us who, like myself, have grown up outside of Iran..

[Megan]

@somebody

You may want to revisit your assertion of “revolution does not lead to democracy” by taking a look at American Revolution. And please pass that on to Mr. Gangi. I recall you quoting him on said assertion in another thread in your reply to me.

I also recall when I referred to Green Movement as Iranians revolt against their father’s and mother’s movement of 1979 that took them from bad to worse, you replied and argued that you personally were proud of what your parents did in 1979. Now today you write, again in reply to me, “the mistakes of 1979. Violent struggle, guerilla groups and revolution only replaced one totalitarian regime with another”. I am perplexed by your change of position.

You completely lost me with the following argument when your wrote , “Calling for a more uncompromising stand for the movement in Iran is akin to the attitude of some western radical leftists who reject the Iranian movement based on its Liberalism and lack of radical anti-capitalist credentials. These leftists don’t realize that in Iran where the most basic freedoms taken for granted in the west are not to be found, Liberalism _is_ a radical agenda and a way forward “. What in the world are you babbling about? Who are the leftist liberal you are referencing? Were you responding to my views or you just had an urge to unload incoherently?

For your information, I know a heck of a lot more about Iran, its people, its culture, its history, its ethnic and linguistic diversity, its struggle for independence and democracy that you give me credit for. Please refrain from passing judgment on people you do not know. Please refrain from labeling people liberal, leftist, western capitalist, monarchist (as you once labeled callers of epersainradio.com), or whatever labels you have in your repertoire. It is really counterproductive. Remember, we are all on the same side that is we are all on the side of Iranians in Iran.