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Sep022009
Latest on The IAEA Conclusion on Iran's Nuclear Programme (28 August)
Wednesday, September 2, 2009 at 10:00
Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Talks, Threats, and Propaganda
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UPDATE 2 September, 0900 GMT: In an interview with Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad el Baradei has said, "Somehow, many people are talking about how Iran's nuclear program is the greatest threat to the world. In many ways, I think the threat has been hyped....The idea that we'll wake up tomorrow and Iran will have a nuclear weapon is an idea that isn't supported by the facts as we have seen them so far."
UPDATE 29 August, 0920 GMT: An EA correspondent has pointed out, in response to my judgement, "These conclusions could be, almost word for word, the conclusions of reports from 2008", that there is a subtle difference from the IAEA's June 2009 report: "The section on possible military dimensions is considerably longer and more detailed...and also entails a subtle change of tone." In particular, the IAEA emphasizes that documentation "derived from multiple sources over different periods [is so] generally consistent and sufficiently comprehensive and detailed that it needs to be addressed by Iran".
This should not be read as a declaration that Iran has moved towards nuclear weapons capability. Rather, it is an amplification of the IAEA's frustration at not getting full access to Iranian facilities to verify the state of research and development.
As we expected, such subtleties are beyond the US press. The New York Times, confused that "Iran Has Bolstered Ability to Make Fuel but Slowed Its Output", gives up and puts out the panicky conclusion, supported by far-from-neutral "outside experts", "If Iran’s current stockpile of low-enriched uranium was further purified, it would have nearly two warheads’ worth of bomb fuel."
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We reprint below the conclusions of the latest report of the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's Nuclear Programme. The full report is available on the website of the Institute for Science and International Security.
As we noted earlier this week, there has been and will be a rush of propaganda around this report. Those who wish to put pressure on Iran, including tougher economic sanctions, will bring out the finding that Iran "has not suspended its enrichment related activities". More ominously, they will convert the IAEA's "remaining issues of concern which need to be clarified to exclude the possibility of military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme" into the conclusion that Iran is definitely pursuing nuclear weapons. (The US State Department has already put out the statement, "Based on what we have seen in press reports ... it seems clear that Iran continues to not cooperate fully and continues its (uranium) enrichment activities." Ha'aretz has trotted out the Israeli line, "The report states that Iran may be working towards acquiring a nuclear weapons capability.")
On the other side, Iranian officials will claim, with the finding of "the non-diversion of declared nuclear material" that they are in compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Or in the objective summary of Press TV, "the UN nuclear watchdog has confirmed that the country is improving its cooperation with the agency while it continues to enrich uranium in spite of UN Security Council resolutions".
All of this will overshadow the real significance of the report, which is that almost nothing has changed over the last year. Indeed, these conclusions could be, almost word for word, the conclusions of reports from 2008. This is a limbo in which Iran is neither culpable of definite violations of the NPT through pursuit of weaponry rather than civilian energy nor exonerated with full inspections of the IAEA of its research and production facilities.
Implementation of the NPT [Non-Proliferation] Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), and 1835 (2008) in the Islamic Republic of Iran
Report by the Director General
....
26. The Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran.
Iran has cooperated with the Agency in improving safeguards measures at FEP and in providing the Agency with access to the IR-40 reactor for purposes of design information verification. Iran has not, however, implemented the modified text of its Subsidiary Arrangements General Part, Code 3.1, on the early provision of design information.
27. Iran has not suspended its enrichment related activities or its work on heavy water related projects as required by the Security Council.
28. Contrary to the requests of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, Iran has neither implemented the Additional Protocol nor cooperated with the Agency in connection with the remaining issues of concern which need to be clarified to exclude the possibility of military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme. Regrettably, the Agency has not
been able to engage Iran in any substantive discussions about these outstanding issues for over a year. The Agency believes that it has provided Iran with sufficient access to documentation in its possession to enable Iran to respond substantively to the questions raised by the Agency. However, the Director General urges Member States which have
provided documentation to the Agency to work out new modalities with the Agency so that it could share further documentation with Iran, as appropriate, since the Agency’s inability to do so is rendering it difficult for the Agency to progress further in its verification process.
29. It is critical for Iran to implement the Additional Protocol and clarify the outstanding issues in order for the Agency to be in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.
30. The Director General will continue to report as appropriate.
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
UPDATE 2 September, 0900 GMT: In an interview with Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad el Baradei has said, "Somehow, many people are talking about how Iran's nuclear program is the greatest threat to the world. In many ways, I think the threat has been hyped....The idea that we'll wake up tomorrow and Iran will have a nuclear weapon is an idea that isn't supported by the facts as we have seen them so far."UPDATE 29 August, 0920 GMT: An EA correspondent has pointed out, in response to my judgement, "These conclusions could be, almost word for word, the conclusions of reports from 2008", that there is a subtle difference from the IAEA's June 2009 report: "The section on possible military dimensions is considerably longer and more detailed...and also entails a subtle change of tone." In particular, the IAEA emphasizes that documentation "derived from multiple sources over different periods [is so] generally consistent and sufficiently comprehensive and detailed that it needs to be addressed by Iran".
This should not be read as a declaration that Iran has moved towards nuclear weapons capability. Rather, it is an amplification of the IAEA's frustration at not getting full access to Iranian facilities to verify the state of research and development.
As we expected, such subtleties are beyond the US press. The New York Times, confused that "Iran Has Bolstered Ability to Make Fuel but Slowed Its Output", gives up and puts out the panicky conclusion, supported by far-from-neutral "outside experts", "If Iran’s current stockpile of low-enriched uranium was further purified, it would have nearly two warheads’ worth of bomb fuel."
---
We reprint below the conclusions of the latest report of the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's Nuclear Programme. The full report is available on the website of the Institute for Science and International Security.
As we noted earlier this week, there has been and will be a rush of propaganda around this report. Those who wish to put pressure on Iran, including tougher economic sanctions, will bring out the finding that Iran "has not suspended its enrichment related activities". More ominously, they will convert the IAEA's "remaining issues of concern which need to be clarified to exclude the possibility of military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme" into the conclusion that Iran is definitely pursuing nuclear weapons. (The US State Department has already put out the statement, "Based on what we have seen in press reports ... it seems clear that Iran continues to not cooperate fully and continues its (uranium) enrichment activities." Ha'aretz has trotted out the Israeli line, "The report states that Iran may be working towards acquiring a nuclear weapons capability.")
On the other side, Iranian officials will claim, with the finding of "the non-diversion of declared nuclear material" that they are in compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Or in the objective summary of Press TV, "the UN nuclear watchdog has confirmed that the country is improving its cooperation with the agency while it continues to enrich uranium in spite of UN Security Council resolutions".
All of this will overshadow the real significance of the report, which is that almost nothing has changed over the last year. Indeed, these conclusions could be, almost word for word, the conclusions of reports from 2008. This is a limbo in which Iran is neither culpable of definite violations of the NPT through pursuit of weaponry rather than civilian energy nor exonerated with full inspections of the IAEA of its research and production facilities.
Implementation of the NPT [Non-Proliferation] Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), and 1835 (2008) in the Islamic Republic of Iran
Report by the Director General
....
26. The Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran.
Iran has cooperated with the Agency in improving safeguards measures at FEP and in providing the Agency with access to the IR-40 reactor for purposes of design information verification. Iran has not, however, implemented the modified text of its Subsidiary Arrangements General Part, Code 3.1, on the early provision of design information.
27. Iran has not suspended its enrichment related activities or its work on heavy water related projects as required by the Security Council.
28. Contrary to the requests of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, Iran has neither implemented the Additional Protocol nor cooperated with the Agency in connection with the remaining issues of concern which need to be clarified to exclude the possibility of military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme. Regrettably, the Agency has not
been able to engage Iran in any substantive discussions about these outstanding issues for over a year. The Agency believes that it has provided Iran with sufficient access to documentation in its possession to enable Iran to respond substantively to the questions raised by the Agency. However, the Director General urges Member States which have
provided documentation to the Agency to work out new modalities with the Agency so that it could share further documentation with Iran, as appropriate, since the Agency’s inability to do so is rendering it difficult for the Agency to progress further in its verification process.
29. It is critical for Iran to implement the Additional Protocol and clarify the outstanding issues in order for the Agency to be in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.
30. The Director General will continue to report as appropriate.