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Saturday
Sep042010

UPDATED Iran Video: The Claimed Attack on Karroubi's House (2/3 September)

UPDATE 4 September: Claimed footage of the assailants approaching the Karroubi's apartment complex and defacing the entrance. The men appear to be carrying guns:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQVbfPmeov0[/youtube]

Iran Video and English Summary: Mehdi Karroubi after 5th Night of Pro-Regime Siege (3 September)
Iran Urgent: Breaking News with Video on Day 5 of Karroubi “Siege”


We noted this video when it first appeared several hours ago. We were careful about posting because of difficulty of verification. However, as it is now circulating widely, we are putting this up as an alleged recording of Thursday night/Friday morning's attack on the home of Mehdi Karroubi.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tz0gGyBztxA&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
Saturday
Sep042010

Israel-Palestine Analysis: The Lopsided Table at the Direct Talks (Agha/Malley)

Hussein Agha and Robert Malley write for The Washington Post:

Israelis and Palestinians sat at the same table on Thursday, but much more separates them than the gulf between their substantive positions. Staggering asymmetries between the two sides could seriously imperil the talks.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is the head of a stable state with the ability to deliver on his commitments. Celebrations of supposed institution-building notwithstanding, Palestinians have no robust central authority. Their territory is divided between the West Bank and Gaza. On their own, Palestinians would find it difficult to implement an agreement, however much they might wish to. Israel controls all material assets; Palestinians at best can offer intangible declarations and promises.

Netanyahu operates within a domestic consensus. On issue after issue -- acceptance of a two-state solution; insistence on Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state; rejection of a full settlement freeze including Jerusalem; refusal of preconditions for negotiations -- his stances resonate with the Israeli people. Neither the right, from which he comes, nor the left, whose peace aspirations he is pursuing, denies him the mandate to negotiate. Netanyahu is heading on his own terms to negotiations he has demanded for 20 months; Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is being dragged there without any of his preconditions having been met.

The Palestinian leadership has never been more vulnerable. Participation in direct talks was opposed by virtually every Palestinian political organization aside from Fatah, whose support was lethargic. Abbas's decision to come to Washington is viewed skeptically even by those who back him. Netanyahu's is supported even by those who oppose him.

Palestinian views are well known. There is little to no distinction between their public, opening and final positions. Yet no one truly knows the Israeli stance. Netanyahu can start with maximalist positions and then climb down, exuding flexibility next to what inevitably will be couched as Palestinian obstinacy. Palestinians are likely to be frustrated, and the atmosphere poisoned.

Read full article....
Saturday
Sep042010

Iraq: Obama Wants Us to Forget the Lessons (Bacevich)

Andrew Bacevich writes for The New Republic:

The Iraq war? Fuggedaboudit. “Now, it is time to turn the page.” So advises the commander-in-chief at least. “[T]he bottom line is this,” President Obama remarked last Saturday, “the war is ending.” Alas, it’s not. Instead, the conflict is simply entering a new phase. And before we hasten to turn the page—something that the great majority of Americans are keen to do—common decency demands that we reflect on all that has occurred in bringing us to this moment. Absent reflection, learning becomes an impossibility.

For those Americans still persuaded that everything changed the moment Obama entered the Oval Office, let’s provide a little context. The event that historians will enshrine as the Iraq war actually began back in 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, Iraq’s unloved and unlovable neighbor. Through much of the previous decade, the United States had viewed Saddam as an ally of sorts, a secular bulwark against the looming threat of Islamic radicalism then seemingly centered in Tehran. Saddam’s war of aggression against Iran, launched in 1980, did not much discomfit Washington, which offered the Iraqi dictator a helping hand when his legions faced apparent defeat.

Yet when Saddam subsequently turned on Kuwait, he overstepped. President George H.W. Bush drew a line in the sand, likened the Iraqi dictator to Hitler, and dispatched 500,000 American troops to the Persian Gulf. The plan was to give Saddam a good spanking, make sure all concerned knew who was boss, and go home.

Operation Desert Storm didn’t turn out that way. An ostensibly great victory gave way to even greater complications. Although, in evicting the Iraqi army from Kuwait, U.S. and coalition forces did what they had been sent to do, Washington became seized with the notion merely turning back aggression wasn’t enough: In Baghdad, Bush’s nemesis survived and remained defiant. So what began as a war to liberate Kuwait morphed into an obsession with deposing Saddam himself. In the form of air strikes and missile attacks, feints and demonstrations, CIA plots and crushing sanctions, America’s war against Iraq persisted throughout the 1990s, finally reaching a climax with George W. Bush’s decision after September 11, 2001, to put Saddam ahead of Osama bin Laden in the line of evildoers requiring elimination.

The U.S.-led assault on Baghdad in 2003 finally finished the work left undone in 1991—so it appeared at least. Here was decisive victory, sealed by the capture of Saddam Hussein himself in December 2003. “Ladies and gentlemen,” announced L. Paul Bremer, the beaming American viceroy to Baghdad, “we got him.”

Yet by the time Bremer spoke, it—Iraq—had gotten us. Saddam’s capture (and subsequent execution) signaled next to nothing. Round two of the Iraq war had commenced, the war against Saddam (1990–2003) giving way to the American Occupation (2003–2010). Round two began the War to Reinvent Iraq in America’s Image.

With officials such as Bremer in the vanguard, the United States set out to transform Iraq into a Persian Gulf “city upon a hill,” a beacon of Western-oriented liberal democracy enlightening and inspiring the rest of the Arab and Islamic world. When this effort met with resistance, American troops, accustomed to employing overwhelming force, responded with indiscriminate harshness. President Bush called the approach “kicking ass.” Heavy-handedness backfired, however, and succeeded only in plunging Iraq into chaos. One result, on the home front, was to produce a sharp backlash against what had become Bush’s War.

Unable to win, unwilling to accept defeat, the Bush administration sought to create conditions allowing for a graceful exit. Marketed for domestic political purposes as “a new way forward,” more commonly known as “the surge,” this modified approach was the strategic equivalent of a dog’s breakfast. President Bush steeled himself to expend more American blood and treasure while simultaneously lowering expectations about what U.S. forces might actually accomplish. New tactics designed to suppress the Iraqi insurgency won Bush’s approval; so too did the novel practice of bribing insurgents to put down their arms.

Yet as a consequence the daily violence that had made Iraq a hellhole subsided—although it did not disappear.

Meanwhile, once hallowed verities fell by the wayside. U.S. officials stopped promising that Saddam’s downfall would trigger a wave of liberalizing reforms throughout the Islamic world. Op-eds testifying to America’s enduring commitment to the rights of Iraqi women ceased to appear in the nation’s leading newspapers.

Respected American generals—by 2007, about the only figures retaining a shred of credibility on Iraq—disavowed the very possibility of victory. In military circles, to declare that “there is no military solution” became the very height of fashion.

By the time Barack Obama had ascended to the presidency, this second phase of the Iraq war—its purpose now inverted from occupation to extrication—was already well-advanced. Since taking office, Obama has kept faith with the process that his predecessor set in motion, building upon President Bush’s success. (When applied to Iraq, “success” has become a notably elastic term, easily accommodating bombs that detonate in Iraqi cities and insurgent assaults directed at Iraqi forces and government installations.)

Which brings us to the present....

Read full article....
Saturday
Sep042010

Iran Overview: "A Small Rally to Make More Enemies" (Shahryar)

Josh Shahryar considers the significance of the Qods Day events yesterday:

Iran managed to hold its annual anti-Israel Quds Day rallies this year in relative peace, as the opposition stayed away from the streets. Thousands of hard-line supporters of the Iranian government flocked to the streets of the capital Tehran and elsewhere in the country to denounce Israel, and to demand that Jews leave the Middle East. The numbers were a far cry from the rallies in past years that attracted millions, a good indicator of the government’s waning popularity.

Even though opposition activists had quietly indicated that they would hold rallies against the government, no one showed up after the government filled the streets with thousands of security forces. Their decision to not show up was also affected by the government’s brazen attacks on the house of opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi for the past two days.

The main government rallies in Tehran were marked by supporters marching through the streets in different parts of the city, carrying anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian placards and chanting anti-Israel slogans. By far the largest crowd gathered in Tehran University, which was under tight security, where President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave another of his anti-Israel speeches. This time, he managed both to denounce Israel and to call the current round of peace talks between the Israelis and Palestinians in Washington “a failure from the start”. He also accused the West of blatant pro-Zionist policies.

Quds Day is held on the last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan in Iran. Initiated by Iran’s revolutionary leader Imam Khomeini, the protest was meant to show solidarity with Palestinians. It has now largely turned into a platform for Iran’s regime to promote its own version of anti-Semitism, anti-Americanism, and anti-everything the mullahs in power seek to denounce — including their domestic opposition.

The opposition spent the day tending to the attack on their leader, and according to some activists, enjoyed the degree to which the government has become frightened of their activities. One activist opined:
The government had to put thousands of security forces on Tehran’s streets under scorching heat for most of the day. Logistically speaking, this is a great blow, since not only did they spend a lot of money to contain a ghost, but also fatigued their thugs.

Another lamented that if the government hadn’t put too many security forces on the ground, they might have held a rally.

What the day proved, however, was that the government is indeed troubled by the opposition, and is ready to go to any lengths to control their activities. This is a hard blow to a regime that has recently boasted that it has crushed the opposition, and that the Green Movement — a coalition of anti-government opposition groups — is not a threat. The streets of Tehran today were a witness to how much of a threat they expected.

Two of the city’s main squares, Enghelab and Hafte Tir, were covered by security forces. Roads leading to many other squares were also completely sealed by baton-wielding Basijis — a militant organization under the direct control of the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. Basijis also patrolled the metro stations in the city and routinely questioned people there. Elsewhere, security forces set up checkpoints and searched ordinary Tehranis. Eyewitnesses have so far confirmed the arrests of at least a dozen people — indicating the real number to be much higher.

The situation in Tehran was much better compared to Shiraz, however.

Clashes broke out in this southern city when security forces attacked Ghoba Mosque, the main seat of Ayatollah Dastegheyb, a respected cleric and supporter of the opposition movement. Hundreds of Basijis entered the mosque and beat up the cleric’s students who’d gathered there. Mosque officials were told not to hold any gatherings, and the establishment was already surrounded by security forces before the attack.

Back in the capital, Basijis continued their attacks on Mehdi Karroubi’s house for the fifth day. They shot paintball guns, threw rocks, and shot at the house. They also beat up several people outside the house who were either passing by or attempting to enter the house. Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi called Karroubi to express his support, as did Grand Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani, another renegade cleric who supports the opposition. Sayed Yasser Khomeini — the grandson of the leader of Iran’s revolution, Imam Khomeini — visited Karroubi and decried the government’s actions.

Later in the day, videos from inside of Karroubi’s house were released, showing broken windows and bullet holes in walls.

As the day ended, most opposition supporters may have been disheartened, but one dissident summed up the situation with these words:
They held a small rally to make more enemies. We didn’t show up, but we’re making more friends every day.
Saturday
Sep042010

Iran Propaganda Special: The Green Sedition Festival (Pedestrian)

Pedestrian writes about an event whipped up by the regime for Qods (Palestine) Day:



Fars News today features photos from the “Green Sedition Festival” which is being held for Qods Day. What is worth noting is the strong emphasis on the Rajavis (the husband and wife who lead the "terrorist" group Mujahedin-e-Khalq). I’ve seen these sorts of festivals before, and there is always stronger emphasis on the West. In these posters however, opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife Zahra Rahnavard are literally born into the bodies of the MEK leaders.

I wonder: how many people pass by these posters and laugh? How many take them seriously?







View all the pictures....
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