Your State-by-State Snapshot of the 2008 Election

Eight mornings to go before Indecision Day, as the Daily Show would call it, and last week’s analysis (Watching America, 23 October) is holding up well. There might well be a party on 4 November but there won’t be much drama.

Surprisingly --- well, surprising to me because it seems to be a forlorn strategy --- the media line that McCain-Palin were going to gamble on turning Pennsylvania Republican seems to have borne out over the weekend. Unsurprisingly, the Democrats countered by upping their presence in the state, with Obama attending rallies in Pittsburgh and the Pennsylvania suburbs this week. Obama-Biden are still up between 11 and 13 points in the latest state polls.

The more important story, picked up by the New York Times this AM, is the desperate attempt of the Republicans to hold onto “their” states from 2004: “Mr. McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, are planning to spend most of their time in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana.” That’s significant because those are six of the 10 Republican-held swing states that we identified on Thursday. What’s even more significant is that even a Republican miracle in these states won’t be enough: there’s an indication here that the Republicans don’t have the resources to defend Colorado , New Mexico , and Nevada --- a Democratic victory in Colorado plus one of the other two means a President Obama (barring a surprise McCain win in Pennsylvania ).

The broader weekend spin was McCain’s Braveheart call to his troops, insisting, “We’re going to win” and claiming that Obama and Co. are already treating the election as won. It’s a shrewd if expected move, trying to win over floating voters with the impression of an overconfident, even arrogant Democratic campaign. However, in the equally shrewd and expected counter-move, the Democrats are putting out the message that “it ain’t over until it’s over” and no one should expect an easy walk to the White House.

My reading is that McCain will close the national gap slightly over the next week. Underdogs often do so in the last phase of a campaign (Ford v. Carter ’76, Bush v. Clinton ’92 as examples). That will be a token gain, however --- McCain may cling on to a couple of states where he’s slightly behind, but there is no way that he pulls out the “Hail Mary” of modern US politics and takes himself and the Hockey Mom to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

I won’t be putting my final picks into the office pools until next Monday, but here’s a snapshot of the likely scenario. Remember that 270 electoral votes are needed for victory.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC STATES (20 and Washington D.C --- 259 electoral votes): I won’t list them all but this includes Michigan , Minnesota , and Wisconsin , where the Republicans had hopes of wins, and…

Pennsylvania (21 votes): Sorry, Big John. There’s not much hope in the appeal to that mythical working-class, white multitude in “western Pennsylvania ” to come out in force to stop Obama. Any bump in those areas will be more than offset by big Democratic margins in the urban areas.

SAFE REPUBLICAN STATES (19 --- 157 electoral votes): The fragment of good news for the GOP is that Georgia and West Virginia , which should never have been in doubt, have been shored up in recent days. The fun story, if it’s borne out in the next week, is that Obama is closing the gap in McCain’s home state of Arizona, but I think that’s just a bit of electoral froth and mischief.

THE 11 STATES IN PLAY (122 electoral votes): From largest to smallest…

Florida (27 votes): Obama’s up by just over two points here, a margin which could easily be overturned by the Republicans. Normally I would expect the diehard GOP folks to bring this back to McCain-Palin but memories of 2000 are a force here. The Democrats will want Florida big-time not only to lock down the election but as in-your-face statement to those they think took the Presidency from them eight years ago. A nail-biter but…

Obama-Biden

Ohio (20 votes): Obama’s up 4-6 points and the 2000/2004 “bump” is in play here as well. This was the decisive state four years ago and, discounting the theory that is still about that the Republicans stole the state, the Democrats think they should have made sure of the Buckeye State last time. This time…

Obama-Biden

North Carolina (15 votes): Obama’s up a point in the polls. This is one of those places where I expect a late Republican push to make a difference --- a big turnout in the rural areas may make a difference. Remember, this used to be the state of the late Jesse Helms, the spectre of parochial, xenophobic Republicanism.

McCain-Palin

Virginia (13 votes): Looking back on it, maybe the key state in this campaign. Republican for the last generation but, with its mix of rural areas and affluent suburbs, increasingly up for grabs --- in contrast to North Carolina to the south, not as definable in working-class, white terms. Swung early in the campaign towards the Democrats and Obama’s now up 6-7 points.

Obama-Biden

Missouri (11 votes): See North Carolina --- Obama’s up a point but McCain’s small bounce-back this week may take this one back into the Republican column. Still, I wouldn’t put the house --- or even my children --- on the outcome here.

McCain-Palin

Indiana (11 votes): The first vote to watch on Election Night, as it reports back just after 10 p.m. British time. If it goes for Obama, Democrat parties can already swing. Obama’s lead is whisker-thin, though. This state was such a Republican lock in 2000 and 2004 that, disappointing my colleague “Canuckistan”, have to call it…

McCain-Palin

Colorado (9 votes): Obama up 6-7 points. In a state balanced between big-city liberals, Christian fire-breathers, and rural whites, it’s the liberals who have been better-organised. No surprise that Obama made an appearance in Denver this week to get the party started.

Obama-Biden

New Mexico (5 votes): Obama has steadily gained in the last month, turning a toss-up into an 8-9 point lead. Somebody sometime is going to figure out the US Southwest has never been a die-hard “ Red State ” area, particularly with Hispanic voters drifting away from the Republicans.

Obama-Biden

Nevada (5 votes): The real surprise for those of us who have always lumped it with arch-conservative Utah . Enough swing voters --- by class and education, if not race --- to make this possible hunting ground for the Democrats. The local organization has converted the opportunity --- Obama’s up 2-3 points.

Obama-Biden

North Dakota and Montana (3 votes each): Should never have been in doubt. Even listing them here is a sign of how McCain-Palin have crumbled since early October.

McCain-Palin

YOUR ELECTION NIGHT OUTCOME (MAYBE)

Obama-Biden 338
McCain-Palin 230