Your State-by-State Snapshot of the 2008 Election

Eight mornings to go before Indecision Day, as the Daily Show would call it, and last week’s analysis (Watching America, 23 October) is holding up well. There might well be a party on 4 November but there won’t be much drama.

Surprisingly --- well, surprising to me because it seems to be a forlorn strategy --- the media line that McCain-Palin were going to gamble on turning Pennsylvania Republican seems to have borne out over the weekend. Unsurprisingly, the Democrats countered by upping their presence in the state, with Obama attending rallies in Pittsburgh and the Pennsylvania suburbs this week. Obama-Biden are still up between 11 and 13 points in the latest state polls.

The more important story, picked up by the New York Times this AM, is the desperate attempt of the Republicans to hold onto “their” states from 2004: “Mr. McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, are planning to spend most of their time in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana.” That’s significant because those are six of the 10 Republican-held swing states that we identified on Thursday. What’s even more significant is that even a Republican miracle in these states won’t be enough: there’s an indication here that the Republicans don’t have the resources to defend Colorado , New Mexico , and Nevada --- a Democratic victory in Colorado plus one of the other two means a President Obama (barring a surprise McCain win in Pennsylvania ).

The broader weekend spin was McCain’s Braveheart call to his troops, insisting, “We’re going to win” and claiming that Obama and Co. are already treating the election as won. It’s a shrewd if expected move, trying to win over floating voters with the impression of an overconfident, even arrogant Democratic campaign. However, in the equally shrewd and expected counter-move, the Democrats are putting out the message that “it ain’t over until it’s over” and no one should expect an easy walk to the White House.

My reading is that McCain will close the national gap slightly over the next week. Underdogs often do so in the last phase of a campaign (Ford v. Carter ’76, Bush v. Clinton ’92 as examples). That will be a token gain, however --- McCain may cling on to a couple of states where he’s slightly behind, but there is no way that he pulls out the “Hail Mary” of modern US politics and takes himself and the Hockey Mom to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

I won’t be putting my final picks into the office pools until next Monday, but here’s a snapshot of the likely scenario. Remember that 270 electoral votes are needed for victory.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC STATES (20 and Washington D.C --- 259 electoral votes): I won’t list them all but this includes Michigan , Minnesota , and Wisconsin , where the Republicans had hopes of wins, and…

Pennsylvania (21 votes): Sorry, Big John. There’s not much hope in the appeal to that mythical working-class, white multitude in “western Pennsylvania ” to come out in force to stop Obama. Any bump in those areas will be more than offset by big Democratic margins in the urban areas.

SAFE REPUBLICAN STATES (19 --- 157 electoral votes): The fragment of good news for the GOP is that Georgia and West Virginia , which should never have been in doubt, have been shored up in recent days. The fun story, if it’s borne out in the next week, is that Obama is closing the gap in McCain’s home state of Arizona, but I think that’s just a bit of electoral froth and mischief.

THE 11 STATES IN PLAY (122 electoral votes): From largest to smallest…

Florida (27 votes): Obama’s up by just over two points here, a margin which could easily be overturned by the Republicans. Normally I would expect the diehard GOP folks to bring this back to McCain-Palin but memories of 2000 are a force here. The Democrats will want Florida big-time not only to lock down the election but as in-your-face statement to those they think took the Presidency from them eight years ago. A nail-biter but…

Obama-Biden

Ohio (20 votes): Obama’s up 4-6 points and the 2000/2004 “bump” is in play here as well. This was the decisive state four years ago and, discounting the theory that is still about that the Republicans stole the state, the Democrats think they should have made sure of the Buckeye State last time. This time…

Obama-Biden

North Carolina (15 votes): Obama’s up a point in the polls. This is one of those places where I expect a late Republican push to make a difference --- a big turnout in the rural areas may make a difference. Remember, this used to be the state of the late Jesse Helms, the spectre of parochial, xenophobic Republicanism.

McCain-Palin

Virginia (13 votes): Looking back on it, maybe the key state in this campaign. Republican for the last generation but, with its mix of rural areas and affluent suburbs, increasingly up for grabs --- in contrast to North Carolina to the south, not as definable in working-class, white terms. Swung early in the campaign towards the Democrats and Obama’s now up 6-7 points.

Obama-Biden

Missouri (11 votes): See North Carolina --- Obama’s up a point but McCain’s small bounce-back this week may take this one back into the Republican column. Still, I wouldn’t put the house --- or even my children --- on the outcome here.

McCain-Palin

Indiana (11 votes): The first vote to watch on Election Night, as it reports back just after 10 p.m. British time. If it goes for Obama, Democrat parties can already swing. Obama’s lead is whisker-thin, though. This state was such a Republican lock in 2000 and 2004 that, disappointing my colleague “Canuckistan”, have to call it…

McCain-Palin

Colorado (9 votes): Obama up 6-7 points. In a state balanced between big-city liberals, Christian fire-breathers, and rural whites, it’s the liberals who have been better-organised. No surprise that Obama made an appearance in Denver this week to get the party started.

Obama-Biden

New Mexico (5 votes): Obama has steadily gained in the last month, turning a toss-up into an 8-9 point lead. Somebody sometime is going to figure out the US Southwest has never been a die-hard “ Red State ” area, particularly with Hispanic voters drifting away from the Republicans.

Obama-Biden

Nevada (5 votes): The real surprise for those of us who have always lumped it with arch-conservative Utah . Enough swing voters --- by class and education, if not race --- to make this possible hunting ground for the Democrats. The local organization has converted the opportunity --- Obama’s up 2-3 points.

Obama-Biden

North Dakota and Montana (3 votes each): Should never have been in doubt. Even listing them here is a sign of how McCain-Palin have crumbled since early October.

McCain-Palin

YOUR ELECTION NIGHT OUTCOME (MAYBE)

Obama-Biden 338
McCain-Palin 230

Monday Buffet: From the US Elections to New Old Cold Wars

A General's Endorsement

 

I must admit Colin Powell's ringing call, made on the flagship Sunday TV programme Meet the Press, surprised me. I was particularly shocked by his remark, "I was...concerned at the selection of Governor Palin....Now that we have had a chance to watch her for some seven weeks, I don't believe she's ready to be president of the United States."

 

However, Watching America can now reveal the reason behind the former Secretary of State's decision to back Obama. Last week Powell appeared with Palin on the legendary US game show "The $800 Billion (formerly $25,000) Pyramid". Watching America has obtained an exclusive clip.

 

Funtime with Colin

 

This morning's Today programme on BBC radio added a needed giggle to the serious political events. First, just after 6 a.m., our favourite US correspondent Justin Webb offered the insight that Powell's endorsement might be "marginal" because many right-wing Republicans distrusted the former General and added that many Democrats who opposed the Iraq War might not be persuaded because of Powell's role in the Bush Administration.

 

Well done, Justin! Right-wing Republicans wouldn't vote for Obama-Biden if Todd Palin, George W. Bush, and the Lord Jesus endorsed the Democrats, and any anti-war Democrat is highly unlikely to be backing the GOP. The groups to watch, of course, are moderate Republicans who are unhappy with their Presidential ticket and the sizeable group of "independent" voters who will likely be decisive in this contest.

 

The anchor of Today, James Naughtie, righted the BBC ship with an entertaining grilling of Emily Walker, a Republican spokeswoman who gave a dismissive wave of her hand to Powell's statement. She explained that his words "would not change the direction of this campaign". Quite right --- as Naughtie pointed out in a subsequent question, the polls are always running away from the Republicans.

 

President Obama: Will It Make a Difference?

 

Readers have pointed Watching America to two excellent but divergent views of the next Administration. Mark Danner seizes optimism from the last eight years of despair, "It is the very unpopularity of Bush and the atmosphere of profound disillusion and crisis that helped produce a Democratic challenger whose election—however remarkable his talents, however stirring his eloquence, however bright his promise—would constitute a true revolution." Mike Davis, however, worries that the Obama team may just follow its predecessor into the abyss: "It is bitterly ironic, but, I suppose, historically predictable that a presidential campaign millions of voters have supported for its promise to end the war in Iraq has now mortgaged itself to a "tougher than McCain" escalation of a hopeless conflict in Afghanistan and the Pakistani tribal frontier. In the best of outcomes, the Democrats will merely trade one brutal, losing war for another. In the worst case, their failed policies may set the stage for the return of Cheney and Rove, or their even more sinister avatars."

 

It's the New Old Cold War (Chapter 438)

 

Far from content with several Wars on Terror/Iraq/Afghanistan, Strategic Forecasting reaches back for an earlier Battle to the End of Time. (This, of course, is entirely unconnected from the suspicision that Stratfor tries to pick at least $99 a year from your pocket by making you very, very worried.)

 

Conveniently re-framing the link of Saddam Hussein to terrorism, Reva Bhalla puts the Kremlin in the seat of Master Planner Wanting to Kill All of Us: "The potential revival of Russian state-sponsored terrorism is most likely still early in its development. But one should not forget that after the Cold War, many experts proclaimed a 'New World Order' in which terrorism had become a thing of the past — and U.S. intelligence capabilities atrophied as a result. About a decade later, the 9/11 attacks caught the United States off guard and brought into being a new era of Islamist terrorism that is only now declining. With state-sponsored terrorism back on the horizon, the time has come to recognize the changing face of terrorism beyond the post-9/11 world."

 

Mentioning Bhalla's analysis is a convenient way to welcome back our old friend John Bolton, who is also finding solace --- amidst the "appeasement" of Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, etc. --- in a new old campaign:

 

"Ultimately, what most risks "provoking" Moscow is not Western resolve but Western weakness. This is where the real weight of history lies. Accordingly, attitude adjustment in Moscow first requires attitude adjustment in NATO capitals, and quickly, before Moscow's swaggering leaders draw the wrong lessons from their recent successes....Such an approach will not endanger Western security but enhance it. And if Russia takes offense, better to know that now than later, when the stakes for all concerned may be much higher."

Monday Buffet: From the US Elections to New Old Cold Wars

A General's Endorsement

 

I must admit Colin Powell's ringing call, made on the flagship Sunday TV programme Meet the Press, surprised me. I was particularly shocked by his remark, "I was...concerned at the selection of Governor Palin....Now that we have had a chance to watch her for some seven weeks, I don't believe she's ready to be president of the United States."

 

However, Enduring America can now reveal the reason behind the former Secretary of State's decision to back Obama. Last week Powell appeared with Palin on the legendary US game show "The $800 Billion (formerly $25,000) Pyramid". Enduring America has obtained an exclusive clip.

 

Funtime with Colin

 

This morning's Today programme on BBC radio added a needed giggle to the serious political events. First, just after 6 a.m., our favourite US correspondent Justin Webb offered the insight that Powell's endorsement might be "marginal" because many right-wing Republicans distrusted the former General and added that many Democrats who opposed the Iraq War might not be persuaded because of Powell's role in the Bush Administration.

 

Well done, Justin! Right-wing Republicans wouldn't vote for Obama-Biden if Todd Palin, George W. Bush, and the Lord Jesus endorsed the Democrats, and any anti-war Democrat is highly unlikely to be backing the GOP. The groups to watch, of course, are moderate Republicans who are unhappy with their Presidential ticket and the sizeable group of "independent" voters who will likely be decisive in this contest.

 

The anchor of Today, James Naughtie, righted the BBC ship with an entertaining grilling of Emily Walker, a Republican spokeswoman who gave a dismissive wave of her hand to Powell's statement. She explained that his words "would not change the direction of this campaign". Quite right --- as Naughtie pointed out in a subsequent question, the polls are always running away from the Republicans.

 

President Obama: Will It Make a Difference?

 

Readers have pointed Watching America to two excellent but divergent views of the next Administration. Mark Danner seizes optimism from the last eight years of despair, "It is the very unpopularity of Bush and the atmosphere of profound disillusion and crisis that helped produce a Democratic challenger whose election—however remarkable his talents, however stirring his eloquence, however bright his promise—would constitute a true revolution." Mike Davis, however, worries that the Obama team may just follow its predecessor into the abyss: "It is bitterly ironic, but, I suppose, historically predictable that a presidential campaign millions of voters have supported for its promise to end the war in Iraq has now mortgaged itself to a "tougher than McCain" escalation of a hopeless conflict in Afghanistan and the Pakistani tribal frontier. In the best of outcomes, the Democrats will merely trade one brutal, losing war for another. In the worst case, their failed policies may set the stage for the return of Cheney and Rove, or their even more sinister avatars."

 

It's the New Old Cold War (Chapter 438)

 

Far from content with several Wars on Terror/Iraq/Afghanistan, Strategic Forecasting reaches back for an earlier Battle to the End of Time. (This, of course, is entirely unconnected from the suspicision that Stratfor tries to pick at least $99 a year from your pocket by making you very, very worried.)

 

Conveniently re-framing the link of Saddam Hussein to terrorism, Reva Bhalla puts the Kremlin in the seat of Master Planner Wanting to Kill All of Us: "The potential revival of Russian state-sponsored terrorism is most likely still early in its development. But one should not forget that after the Cold War, many experts proclaimed a 'New World Order' in which terrorism had become a thing of the past — and U.S. intelligence capabilities atrophied as a result. About a decade later, the 9/11 attacks caught the United States off guard and brought into being a new era of Islamist terrorism that is only now declining. With state-sponsored terrorism back on the horizon, the time has come to recognize the changing face of terrorism beyond the post-9/11 world."

 

Mentioning Bhalla's analysis is a convenient way to welcome back our old friend John Bolton, who is also finding solace --- amidst the "appeasement" of Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, etc. --- in a new old campaign:

 

"Ultimately, what most risks "provoking" Moscow is not Western resolve but Western weakness. This is where the real weight of history lies. Accordingly, attitude adjustment in Moscow first requires attitude adjustment in NATO capitals, and quickly, before Moscow's swaggering leaders draw the wrong lessons from their recent successes....Such an approach will not endanger Western security but enhance it. And if Russia takes offense, better to know that now than later, when the stakes for all concerned may be much higher."

Friday Buffet: From the Campaign Trail to Iraq

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WATCH-LIST

Four Signs That This Race is Over

1. Joe the Plumber Goes Down the Drain

On Wednesday night, John McCain's economic shtick was that he was the President who would look out for "Joe the Plumber", a working-class fella from Ohio who apparently would not be able to buy his business under Barack Obama's tax proposals. Joe Wurzelbacher instantly became the newest celebrity of Campaign 2008

Unfortunately for McCain, the New York Times became more than a fan Lewis, one of the leaders of the 1960s Civil Rights Movement, actually wrote:

Mr. Wurzelbacher had never held a plumber’s license, which is required in Toledo and several surrounding municipalities....His full name is Samuel J. Wurzelbacher. And he owes back taxes, too, public records show. The premise of his complaint to Mr. Obama about taxes may also be flawed, according to tax analysts. Contrary to what Mr. Wurzelbacher asserted and Mr. McCain echoed, neither his personal taxes nor those of the business where he works are likely to rise if Mr. Obama’s tax plan were to go into effect, they said.

[OTHER FAMOUS JOES WHO COULD SAVE MCCAIN: Joe Pesci, Joe Louis, Joe and the Volcano, Joe Mama, Joe 90, and (hat tip to Liam Kennedy) Joe Soap]

2. One Last Wild Cultural Swing

Following on from the "Culture Wars" theme: FiveThirtyEight.com took the line, immediately after the debate, that McCain lost his early advantage in the debate when he took a pop at Congressman John Lewis of Georgia.

A man I admire and respect -- I've written about him -- Congressman John Lewis, an American hero, made allegations that Sarah Palin and I were somehow associated with the worst chapter in American history, segregation, deaths of children in church bombings, George Wallace. That, to me, was so hurtful. And, Senator Obama, you didn't repudiate those remarks.

So, the issue is not that the McCain-Palin rhetoric with their question, "Who is Barack Obama?" and the answer, "Palling around with terrorists....This is not a man who sees America like you and I see America,”, was prompting crowd responses of "traitor" and "terrorist...kill him".

Instead, it's Big John who is the victim? Hmmm....

Here's what

What I am seeing reminds me too much of another destructive period in American history. Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are sowing the seeds of hatred and division, and there is no need for this hostility in our political discourse."

George Wallace [segregationist Governor of Alabama and Presidential candidate in 1968 and 1972] never threw a bomb. He never fired a gun, but he created the climate and the conditions that encouraged vicious attacks against innocent Americans who were simply trying to exercise their constitutional rights. Because of this atmosphere of hate, four little girls were killed on Sunday morning when a church was bombed in Birmingham, Alabama.

Well, the way I read it, Lewis was not accusing McCain and Palin of the crimes of the 1960s. Instead, he was warning that character attacks on Obama with the clear message that he is "un-American" and the (unstated) reminder that he is a black un-American are not exactly conductive to good-neighbourly relations . If the language was over the political line (and the Obama campaign quickly pointed this out), Lewis' allegation doesn't stand up to the Republicans' own guilt-by-association tactics.

It's not my reading that matters, however, but the reaction of the American public. And, judging by the hysteria coming from Charles Krauthammer in the Washington Post, the GOP's last cultural gambit --- please vote for us because we've been terribly wronged --- has failed.

2A. One Last Wild Cultural Swing --- UPDATE

Charles Krauthammer fades away screaming as Saturday Night Live features "the crazy McCain-Palin Rally Lady".

3. The First Swallows of the Electoral Autumn

Leave aside the snap polls that showed --- even on Fox --- Obama "winning" the debate by a 2:1 margin amongst undecideds. FiveThirtyEight.com has some dramatic numbers on Obama's margins in five states allowing early voting:

                       % Voting Early       Margin amongst Early Voters              Margin in Polls

New Mexico         10%                            Obama +23%                             Obama  +6%
Ohio                    12%                            Obama +18%                             Obama  +4%
Georgia                18%                            Obama +6%                              McCain +11%
Iowa                     14%                           Obama +34%                             Obama +10%
North Carolina         5%                           Obama +34%                             McCain  +5% 

Even if you pop a couple of grains of salt on these numbers, say, that pro-Obama folks are quicker to get to the mailbox, Obama's lead --- even in what should be "safe" Republican state of Georgia and North Carolina, which McCain has to win to have any hope --- is ominous if you're a Big John backer.

4. Crossing to the Other Side

The Times of London --- that's right, the staunch defender of Thatcherism in the 1980s, flagship newspaper of Rupert Murdoch --- endorses Obama. (By the way, so did the Washington Post.)

A Necessary Correction

 

JM writes from London:

 

"As a fervent reader of your Journal, I must complain about the glaring omission in the Sarah Palin Flowchart (Watching America, 16 October). You forgot THE WINK that tells the fellow travellers that 'I've got this one right' and the rest of us, 'What am I doing here?'"

 

Happy to set the record straight, JM. Consider the flowchart amended with a special SP wink aimed straight at you. 

 

TODAY'S IRAQ CELEBRATIONS

 

Michael Gerson, former Bush speechwriter (and thus one of the scribblers behind the American adventure in Iraq), is the latest columnist to give General/King David Petraeus a big kiss:

 

Petraeus may be uniquely capable of convincing our friends in the region of America's long-term commitment, precisely because he didn't leave Iraq to its fate -- because he is the man who stayed.

 

In the Times of London, Richard Beeston has the classic line, "Without the distractions of the bombings and shootings, it is easier to see Iraq for what it really is." Which is bit like asking, "Apart from the shooting, Mrs Lincoln, how did you like the play?"

 

Meanwhile...

 

"More than 1,300 Christian families have fled [Mosul] and more than 13 Christians have been killed in the past two weeks."