Your State-by-State Snapshot of the 2008 Election

Eight mornings to go before Indecision Day, as the Daily Show would call it, and last week’s analysis (Watching America, 23 October) is holding up well. There might well be a party on 4 November but there won’t be much drama.

Surprisingly --- well, surprising to me because it seems to be a forlorn strategy --- the media line that McCain-Palin were going to gamble on turning Pennsylvania Republican seems to have borne out over the weekend. Unsurprisingly, the Democrats countered by upping their presence in the state, with Obama attending rallies in Pittsburgh and the Pennsylvania suburbs this week. Obama-Biden are still up between 11 and 13 points in the latest state polls.

The more important story, picked up by the New York Times this AM, is the desperate attempt of the Republicans to hold onto “their” states from 2004: “Mr. McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, are planning to spend most of their time in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana.” That’s significant because those are six of the 10 Republican-held swing states that we identified on Thursday. What’s even more significant is that even a Republican miracle in these states won’t be enough: there’s an indication here that the Republicans don’t have the resources to defend Colorado , New Mexico , and Nevada --- a Democratic victory in Colorado plus one of the other two means a President Obama (barring a surprise McCain win in Pennsylvania ).

The broader weekend spin was McCain’s Braveheart call to his troops, insisting, “We’re going to win” and claiming that Obama and Co. are already treating the election as won. It’s a shrewd if expected move, trying to win over floating voters with the impression of an overconfident, even arrogant Democratic campaign. However, in the equally shrewd and expected counter-move, the Democrats are putting out the message that “it ain’t over until it’s over” and no one should expect an easy walk to the White House.

My reading is that McCain will close the national gap slightly over the next week. Underdogs often do so in the last phase of a campaign (Ford v. Carter ’76, Bush v. Clinton ’92 as examples). That will be a token gain, however --- McCain may cling on to a couple of states where he’s slightly behind, but there is no way that he pulls out the “Hail Mary” of modern US politics and takes himself and the Hockey Mom to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

I won’t be putting my final picks into the office pools until next Monday, but here’s a snapshot of the likely scenario. Remember that 270 electoral votes are needed for victory.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC STATES (20 and Washington D.C --- 259 electoral votes): I won’t list them all but this includes Michigan , Minnesota , and Wisconsin , where the Republicans had hopes of wins, and…

Pennsylvania (21 votes): Sorry, Big John. There’s not much hope in the appeal to that mythical working-class, white multitude in “western Pennsylvania ” to come out in force to stop Obama. Any bump in those areas will be more than offset by big Democratic margins in the urban areas.

SAFE REPUBLICAN STATES (19 --- 157 electoral votes): The fragment of good news for the GOP is that Georgia and West Virginia , which should never have been in doubt, have been shored up in recent days. The fun story, if it’s borne out in the next week, is that Obama is closing the gap in McCain’s home state of Arizona, but I think that’s just a bit of electoral froth and mischief.

THE 11 STATES IN PLAY (122 electoral votes): From largest to smallest…

Florida (27 votes): Obama’s up by just over two points here, a margin which could easily be overturned by the Republicans. Normally I would expect the diehard GOP folks to bring this back to McCain-Palin but memories of 2000 are a force here. The Democrats will want Florida big-time not only to lock down the election but as in-your-face statement to those they think took the Presidency from them eight years ago. A nail-biter but…

Obama-Biden

Ohio (20 votes): Obama’s up 4-6 points and the 2000/2004 “bump” is in play here as well. This was the decisive state four years ago and, discounting the theory that is still about that the Republicans stole the state, the Democrats think they should have made sure of the Buckeye State last time. This time…

Obama-Biden

North Carolina (15 votes): Obama’s up a point in the polls. This is one of those places where I expect a late Republican push to make a difference --- a big turnout in the rural areas may make a difference. Remember, this used to be the state of the late Jesse Helms, the spectre of parochial, xenophobic Republicanism.

McCain-Palin

Virginia (13 votes): Looking back on it, maybe the key state in this campaign. Republican for the last generation but, with its mix of rural areas and affluent suburbs, increasingly up for grabs --- in contrast to North Carolina to the south, not as definable in working-class, white terms. Swung early in the campaign towards the Democrats and Obama’s now up 6-7 points.

Obama-Biden

Missouri (11 votes): See North Carolina --- Obama’s up a point but McCain’s small bounce-back this week may take this one back into the Republican column. Still, I wouldn’t put the house --- or even my children --- on the outcome here.

McCain-Palin

Indiana (11 votes): The first vote to watch on Election Night, as it reports back just after 10 p.m. British time. If it goes for Obama, Democrat parties can already swing. Obama’s lead is whisker-thin, though. This state was such a Republican lock in 2000 and 2004 that, disappointing my colleague “Canuckistan”, have to call it…

McCain-Palin

Colorado (9 votes): Obama up 6-7 points. In a state balanced between big-city liberals, Christian fire-breathers, and rural whites, it’s the liberals who have been better-organised. No surprise that Obama made an appearance in Denver this week to get the party started.

Obama-Biden

New Mexico (5 votes): Obama has steadily gained in the last month, turning a toss-up into an 8-9 point lead. Somebody sometime is going to figure out the US Southwest has never been a die-hard “ Red State ” area, particularly with Hispanic voters drifting away from the Republicans.

Obama-Biden

Nevada (5 votes): The real surprise for those of us who have always lumped it with arch-conservative Utah . Enough swing voters --- by class and education, if not race --- to make this possible hunting ground for the Democrats. The local organization has converted the opportunity --- Obama’s up 2-3 points.

Obama-Biden

North Dakota and Montana (3 votes each): Should never have been in doubt. Even listing them here is a sign of how McCain-Palin have crumbled since early October.

McCain-Palin

YOUR ELECTION NIGHT OUTCOME (MAYBE)

Obama-Biden 338
McCain-Palin 230

Tuesday Buffet: Obama, Khomeini, and the Chavez-McDonald's War

A Footnote to the Election Talk: The Sublime....

I neglected to say in Monday's Buffet that, in contrast to some of the media witterings over the Colin Powell endorsement, Juan Cole's detailed reading is almost as effective as the former Secretary of State's simultaneous promotion of the Democrats and demolition of McCain-Palin.  A reader, noting the Cole column, helpfully adds that Powell's endorsement is just as valuable in offsetting Obama's supposed weaknesses, namely, his lack of foreign policy experience, as it is in pushing Obama's positives to uncommitted voters.

And The Ridiculous: Barack Obama- The Next Ayatollah Khomeini A reader  points us to Baron Boddissey's Islam-bashing website Gates of Vienna. There you can find this masterpiece, "Understanding Obama: The Making of a Fuehrer":

I must confess I was not impressed by Sen. Barack Obama from the first time I saw him. At first I was It is surreal to see the level of hysteria in his admirers. This phenomenon is unprecedented in American politics. Women scream and swoon during his speeches. They yell and shout to Obama, "I love you." Never did George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt. Martin Luther King Jr. or Ronald Reagan arouse so much raw emotion. Despite their achievements, none of them was raised to the rank of Messiah. The Illinois senator has no history of service to the country. He has done nothing outstanding except giving promises of change and hyping his audience with hope. It's only his words, not his achievements that is causing this much uproar.

When cheering for someone turns into adulation, something is wrong. Excessive adulation is indicative of a personality cult....During 1979, when the Iranians were tired of the dictatorial regime of the late Shah, they embraced Khomeini, not because they wanted Islam, but because he promised them change. The word in the street was, "anything is better than the Shah." They found their error when it was too late.... Listening to Obama... it harkens back to when I was younger and I used to watch Khomeini, how he would excite the crowd and they'd come to their feet and scream and yell.

And the Surreal: "I Can See Russia in My Name" "Publius" notes Monday's story in The Times of London, "I Can Live with Defeat, Says McCain", and comments, "In the guise of America's "who cares who came second", to talk about defeat tells me his internal polling is really bad news." Sprinkling a bit of salt on the wound, he takes on McCain's declaration that "Mr Obama was seeking to buy the election with his massive fundraising and spending" with the rejoinder, "The chutzpah of 'Obama's buying the election' when McCain did not avail himself of McCain-Feingold, the law [on campaign finance reform that] he championed, is just too much."   However, it is Publius's afterthought that concerns me, either for his well-being or that of America under GOP leadership: "If the name of McCain's VP is spelled S. Palin, try removing the P and inserting a T."  

Saying the Unsayable? The US and Iran Flynt Leverett, who handled Middle Eastern affairs for the National Security Council, and Hillary Mann Leverett, a National Security Council staffer who was involved in the "unofficial" dialogue with Iran over Afghanistan between 2001 and 2003, propose a US-Iranian "Grand Bargain". Contending  that "as a result of a dysfunctional Iran policy, among other foreign policy blunders, the American position in the region is currently under greater strain than at any point since the end of the Cold War", they argue:

It is clearly time for a fundamental change of course in the U.S. approach to the Islamic Republic. By fundamental change, we do not mean incremental, step-by-step engagement with Tehran, or simply trying to manage the Iranian challenge in the region more adroitly than the Bush administration has done. Rather, we mean the pursuit of thoroughgoing strategic rapprochement between the two nations.

Update: Hugo Chavez v. Ronald McDonald A reader from Alabama offers this nostalgic reflection on the Venezuelan Government's temporary shutdown of McDonald's outlets:

In 1989 there was a general strike in Venezuela. Really eerie to have the entire city absolutely silent on a weekday- the only traffic were occasional security vehicles. I played city editor from home because we were allowed only a certain number of workers- two reporters and photographers or something like that- until after daytime working hours.

McDonald's and, I believe, certain banks were just about the only ones to remain open in defiance of the strike. The banks I understood because of bankers' political beliefs, but McDonald's wasn't making any friends. Remember, though, that McDonald's at least then was a relatively pricey meal there.

Goon squads ... er, labor committees made sure people stayed closed and ended up at one of the McD's in Caracas. A garbage can ended up going through the plate glass and, by the end of the day, there was a tank and soldiers in the parking lot protecting the restaurant. Very weird.

McD's in Caracas, unlike Burger King or Tropi Burger, was different than your normal fast-food experience. It always was spotless, the food fast and fresh. And the wholesome kids who worked there -- it was like stepping into a television ad! You expected them to break out into song. Clearly, pay must have been decent and upwardly mobile student-types were their main counter help (janitorial, of course, was another story). They were probably all the Venezuelan equivalent of the College Republican Club and the Future Business Leaders of America.

Anyway, McDonald's always was crowded. Before and after the strike.