Monday
Aug242009
Israel Shock Announcement: Saudis Go Nuclear...All Tehran's Fault
Monday, August 24, 2009 at 14:57
The Latest from Iran (24 August): The 4-D Chess Match
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Last Saturday, the Saudi Arabian newspaper Al-Watan reported the statement of Saudi Arabia’s minister of water and electricity, Abdullah bin Abdul-Rahman al-Husayen, that Riyadh was looking at building its first nuclear power plant. The announcement follows a May 2008 US-Saudi Memorandum of Understanding on civil nuclear energy cooperation.
This all seems fairly straightforward. The Saudis, while sitting on oil reserves, diversify their energy production. The US bolsters a strategic alliance.
Except that, of course, in today's framing of the Middle East, everything has to be connected to Iran. Israeli defense officials immediately said that Saudi interest in nuclear power was connected to Tehran's continued quest for The Bomb: "The Saudis are genuinely scared of what will happen if Iran turns nuclear. This is part of their response."
Now Tel Aviv's defense officials probably know that the civilian nuclear programme of Saudi Arabia has been established jointly with the United States, since a Memorandum of Understanding isn't exactly secret, and has been developed within the framework of International Atomic Energy Agency regulations. But why pass up a pretext for showing the Iran-inspired “danger of the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East”? After all, you can convert not only Saudi Arabia's interest but that of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Yemen, Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Egypt into a fear-induced response to the bad boys in the Iranian capital.
Fun Fact 1: Iran has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel has not.
Fun Fact 2: Iran has 0 nuclear weapons. Israel has (estimated) 150.
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
Last Saturday, the Saudi Arabian newspaper Al-Watan reported the statement of Saudi Arabia’s minister of water and electricity, Abdullah bin Abdul-Rahman al-Husayen, that Riyadh was looking at building its first nuclear power plant. The announcement follows a May 2008 US-Saudi Memorandum of Understanding on civil nuclear energy cooperation.This all seems fairly straightforward. The Saudis, while sitting on oil reserves, diversify their energy production. The US bolsters a strategic alliance.
Except that, of course, in today's framing of the Middle East, everything has to be connected to Iran. Israeli defense officials immediately said that Saudi interest in nuclear power was connected to Tehran's continued quest for The Bomb: "The Saudis are genuinely scared of what will happen if Iran turns nuclear. This is part of their response."
Now Tel Aviv's defense officials probably know that the civilian nuclear programme of Saudi Arabia has been established jointly with the United States, since a Memorandum of Understanding isn't exactly secret, and has been developed within the framework of International Atomic Energy Agency regulations. But why pass up a pretext for showing the Iran-inspired “danger of the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East”? After all, you can convert not only Saudi Arabia's interest but that of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Yemen, Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Egypt into a fear-induced response to the bad boys in the Iranian capital.
Fun Fact 1: Iran has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel has not.
Fun Fact 2: Iran has 0 nuclear weapons. Israel has (estimated) 150.
Reader Comments (3)
Your analysis (particularly your "fun facts") misses the point entirely. Yes, Iran is a signor of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but it has been in serious violation of that treaty for years and shows no sign of slowing down its enrichment program or coming to the negotiating table with a mindbogglingly patient and tolerant international community.
More importantly, where Israel has possessed nuclear weapons for deterrent purposes for years, it has not used, threatened to use, or distributed them. Iran, by contrast, spends billions of dollars arming groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, and has made comments regarding Israel that express a genocidal intent (keeping Ahmadinejad in power underscores the genocidal ideology of the regime, which is why his Holocaust denial sets off such alarm bells).
Given the use of terrorist proxies and the openly genocidal rhetoric from Iran's leaders, Iran's reckless regime poses an unacceptable threat.
Adam,
Do have a look through our analysis of this issue since we started in November 2008. The prevailing assessment of the US Government is still the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, which said that Iran had suspended R&D on a nuclear weapons programme in 2003 and that the earliest technical possibility for a bomb, even if programme was resumed, was around 2014. The IAEA has not found evidence of a resumption, and its issues with Iran are over the scope of the inspection regime, not a discovery of "serious violation".
Your point on Israel can only be taken as a good-faith assumption, since Tel Aviv has never admitted having any of its 150 nuclear weapons.
S.
Why would Saudi Arabia need a nuclear reactor? Its power needs are so small. Its electrical power grid has got to be tiny.
I think the Saudi move is more political than economic -- countering Iran's growing strategic and political power ambitions. Whether they've suspended the program or not, the Iranians enjoy toting along their nuclear wildcard. Think of it as an extra pin on an army officer's chest. Iran wants everybody to keep on guessing. I think it makes sense.
Libya got out of the nuclear business.