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Thursday
Aug272009

The Latest from Iran (27 August): Catching Breath

NEW Iran: The Regime’s Knockout Punch? Not Quite.
NEW Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Talks, Threats, and Propaganda

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ABTAHI PRISON

2120 GMT: Well, unless the unexpected happens, it looks like all will be quiet until tomorrow morning's setpiece of President Ahmadinejad's speech introducing Friday prayers in Tehran.

2110 GMT: We took an evening break to recharge but, to be honest, we've returned to a standstill --- no  political developments.

There is, however, curious (and darkly humourous) goings-on at Press TV. The website has repackaged the Supreme Leader's Wednesday night speech under the headline, "Leader urges support for Ahmadinejad's strong suits", and the first paragraph: "The Leader of the Islamic Revolution sheds light on the recent course of events in Iran, urging the nation to stand by the administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad."

That opening is superimposed on paragraphs 2-9, which are truer to the original account of the speech (and thus not so warm towards Ahmadinejad, with the exception of one sentence --- not included here --- which has been heavily edited and thus distorted):
Be sure that no crime or atrocity will go unpunished, but with issues of that importance the judiciary should rule based on solid evidence....The establishment [the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran] should take broad actions only after taking into consideration all aspects of the issues, and avoiding assessing the situation only from one dimension....Irregularities and atrocities have been committed during the aftermath of the elections, crimes that will be certainly dealt with....Irregularities and atrocities have been committed during the aftermath of the elections, crimes that will be certainly dealt with.

Question: who made Press TV stick on a "better" headline and opening paragraph, which have little to do with the rest of the article?

1730 GMT: Catching Up With The Story. We had a pop at Michael Slackman and The New York Times earlier today (1320 GMT), so it's only fair to note that Slackman is now up to speed with developments, including the Supreme Leader's statement last night. In "Iran’s Supreme Leader Softens Accusations Against Reformists", just posted on the Internet, and presumably to be published in the print edition in the morning, Slackman writes:
Ayatollah Khamenei’s comments were the latest in a series of small, if significant, steps that appear aimed at slowing President Ahmadinejad’s drive to consolidate power and define members of the reform movement as enemies of the state.

Slackman's article should also be read as the prevailing opinion of US-based analysts like Abbas Milani and Karim Sadjadpour, both of whom are quoted.

1500 GMT: It's All Because the West Hates Me. There is one political statement to note this afternoon. At his eftar dinner breaking the daily Ramadan fast yesterday, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad explained the cause of the post-election crisis: "[Western countries] have been humiliated in the last four years and, therefore, wanted to take revenge by encouraging continued unrest....Like you have been slapped in the face by the Iranian people in the last three decades, you have also been slapped this time."

The President then offered a deal to his enemies, "Although they [the West] did not act rationally, I still hope they can make amends for their mistake by making a global commitment not to interfere in Iran anymore."

Hmm....Apparently, Ahmadinejead hadn't received the message that, just before his dinner, the Supreme Leader was denying that the Western countries were behind "continued unrest".

1400 GMT: By far the quietist day in the post-election crisis, with next to nothing coming out of Iran on political and legal manoeuvres. The reformist site Norooz is highlighting new photographs of the alleged site of secret burials of 40 protestors at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery. Reuters is running, from Parleman News, the statement from an unnamed MP: ""Raping of some detainees with a baton and soda bottle has been proven to us."

1320 GMT: How Twitter is Overtaking Mainstream Media. I've just had an interesting exchange with some correspondents, appropriately enough via Twitter, on its use for reporting and analysis. My position is that Twitter is invaluable in finding and putting together and interpreting the latest news, as opposed to the position --- held by some "mainstream" broadcasters --- that it is primarily useful to give the reactions of readers/viewers, since it is unreliable as a source for news.

In that context, a note. Enduring America, following up Twitter leads, first reported on the Supreme Leader's important speech to student leaders at 1845 GMT yesterday. We had an interim analysis up by 1915 GMT, and it was a key part of today's in-depth analysis, "The Regime's Knockout Punch? Not Quite", posted at 0655 GMT.

CNN's first mention of the Supreme Leader's speech? "US, UK Not Meddling in Iran", published at 1256 GMT today.

1040 GMT: US Media to Iranian Protestors, "You're Pawns in Our Nuclear Game."

It's bad enough that supposedly top-quality US media are now well behind the story in Iran. In today's New York Times, Michael Slackman writes that "aides to Iran’s president lashed out publicly at two former presidents" on Wednesday but still seems unaware that Hashemi Rafsanjani was attacked the day before in the Tehran trial.

What's really unsettling, however, is that The Washington Post isn't bothered any longer to consider the story as one of Iranians seeking changes to their Islamic Republic. At least Slackman and The New York Times tried today to assess the political situation --- the Post doesn't bother with an article.

Instead, the Post launches into an editorial attack instead on the "sickening spectacle" of the "Stalinist mass show trial". It does so, however, not out of concern for the rights of the defendants, detainees, or demonstrators. Three days ago, the newspaper seized on dubious propaganda spread by "Western officials" to demand that the International Atomic Energy Agency disclose information supposedly proving that Iran is pursuing The Bomb. Today, for the newspaper, any concern is reduced to that all-important nuclear question and "the challenge for Washington in engaging with a regime of questionable legitimacy, dubious lines of authority and an uncertain grip on power".

1010 GMT: Professor Alireza Farshi has been released on bail from detention. It is also reported that lawyer Abdolfatah Soltani is free on bail after 72 days in prison.

0900 GMT: To be honest, after the dramatic twists of the last 48 hours, there is very little to report this morning. So we've concentrated on our analysis of the Ahmadinejad Government's failure to knock out the opposition with Tuesday's trial and on another developing story, the propaganda around Iran's nuclear programme ahead of an important international meeting on 14 September.

One very disturbing incident to note, however, with the sudden re-appearance of the blog of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi (pictured). It's an obvious propaganda move by the Government, with Abtahi generously allowed to resume his writing while still in detention: "I said, 'Anything that I write must be my own. You can only tell me what things I should NOT write.' [The interrogator] agreed."

Maryam at Keeping the Change reprints the blog entry with a short, sharp analysis: "While the blog entry does include a call for the release of the political prisoners, the overall pro-Establishment message seems clear....The government is likely to keep Abtahi in detention and blogging, for some time."

Reader Comments (10)

Thank you for your honesty. The MSM can't afford to admit what you've observed. Oh yes, not all tweets are reliable, but a properly educated journalist can thread the needle to verify when motivated to make that effort.

Your presentation is exactly that, and very much appreciated by your readers (devoted by now). Again, thank you for your efforts, which are making a sustantial contribution to informing those who are desperately seeking news they can count on.

AE is the best of its genre, actually. Your synthesis using multiple sources results in thought-provoking commentary, interesting focus on the not so obvious and a well-rounded view of what's happening.

August 27, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterObserver

Hereby I join the words of "Observer". Thank you for keeping us so informed. You're about the last reliable source to find information and analysis about what is going on in Iran. During the first weeks after June 12th there were so many blogs to follow, so much information written in various websites. But now they almost all dessicated, you're about the last one which is hanging on. And with such a good quality. I hope you will do so for a very long time. Sometimes it is discouraging that any change in Iran takes such a very long time, but mostly after reading your analysis I have my hopes up again. I also find the comments of your readers very valuable.
It is depressing to realize the suppression the Iranian people must put up with for so many years by now and how many years will it last in the future? I hope I will see the day when this regime will come to an end.

August 27, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterNelly

Scott,
The Washington Post has become a neocon mouthpiece. WaPo configures stories as evidence that there can be no non-military resolution to US issues with Iran. Diplomatic engagement is anathema. Humanitarian issues such as the trials & prisoner abuse are of concern when they bolster the non-engagement narrative. So for WaPo your 10:40 GMT comment is true: “You’re Pawns in Our Nuclear Game.”

August 27, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

Thanks to all of you for support and kind words. It makes me feel that all of this is worthwhile.

Keep fighting the good fight,

S.

August 27, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterScott Lucas

Thank *you*, Scott Lucas. And maybe, if you have time, you might find this Facebook Note worth reading: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/notes.php?id=1046743969 You're in it...

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterWitteKr

Not so warm toward Ahmadinejad? again I can't agree.

The SL says:
"Even if there are instances supporting some of the rumors that have been spread, those instances cannot constitute a basis for judicial rulings," which means the testimonies of the victims of rape are not "solid evidence" enough!

He adds:
"Any member of the two bodies (basij and police)who has violated a law or committed a crime should be dealt with,"

"we should, however, make a distinction between these crimes and the turmoil created after the country's June 12 elections."

"Some people -- who tend to turn a blind eye to the oppression of the people, the Islamic establishment and the tarnished reputation of the establishment -- seem to portray the Kahrizak issue as the main problem, whereas this on its own is another form of oppression against the nation."

In other words, taking part in the "turmoil" is a much more serious crime than those committed in Khazirak or Evin.

And finally:
The Leader continued that although the Islamic establishment did anticipate that some developments would take place after Iran's presidential elections, "it did not expect certain figures to get involved."

What figures? Not the greens, since he said the greens were not aware of what the foreign conspirators were engeneering
So, who does he mean? Rafsandjani?

All this shows, I think (but I may be wrong), that there isn't such a gap betwwen the title and the content of the article

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterflorence Achard

Hello Florence Achard,

Interesting comments. What I'd like to know is 'who' is actually directing these inconsistent statements. Surely not the SL, whose 'words' are 'all over the place' to the point of incoherency. Seems like a 'back and forth,' but whose?

Thank you for your comments.

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterObserver

PS

What was it the Supreme Leader urged? - 'Concentrate on Ahmadinejad's strengths, not his weaknesses.' After admitting the president had serious weaknesses? After acknowledging that atrocities did take place? After directly dismissing the entire raison d'etre for the regime's trial indictments? (foreign influence).

Wait a minute -- the scenario seems completely irrational. Better to select 'THE story' and stick with it maybe? Seems like the Supreme Leader comes across as a bouncing ball instead of somebody in charge. A 'tug-of war' with the SL as mouthpiece.

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterObserver

florence Achard & Observer
Since SL sees no evidence of foreign interference, all those "confessions" of foreign collusion suddenly become rather awkward. Somebody's dangling in mid air

August 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

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