Friday
Sep112009
The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics
Friday, September 11, 2009 at 22:10
Iran: The Complete Translation of the Supreme Leader’s Friday Prayer Address
Iran: Josh Shahryar's Snap Analysis of the Supreme Leader's Speech
Iran: Questions on Prayer Day
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2200 GMT: We have received further information on both the Rah-e-Sabz and New York Times stories on the Khamenei order for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi and on the Rafsanjani "retreat" because of military pressure.
The information indicates that one of Hashemi Rafsanjani's colleagues has confirmed the Karroubi arrest story to one of the best reporters covering Iran. We are therefore taking the story very seriously.
More to come in a special analysis on Saturday.
2120 GMT: An EA correspondent picks up the following from the Rah-e-Sabz story on Rafsanjani's apparent retreat: "He went as far as to say that Karroubi's arrest warrant should not have been issued by Khamenei himself and that the presence of the IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] in the political sphere will make matters 'complicated'. Khamenei apparently reacted with a long silence to this remark."
2100 GMT: Rumour of the Day. Rah-e-Sabz reports that an "informed source" claims that the Supreme Leader has issued an order for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi. Almost as significant is the claim, from the same report, that Hashemi Rafsanjani has told members of the Center for Strategic Research of the Expediency Council, about a meeting between himself and Ayatollah Khamenei: “I will back away from everything, they are not granting me permission to speak at the Friday prayers anymore.”
The New York Times, which picked up the story, has added from "a person close to Mr. Rafsanjani" that "the order was issued at least two weeks ago".
1945 GMT: Journalist Mohammad Hasan Fallahizadeh, who had been on hunger strike in Evin Prison, was released on Wednesday on medical grounds.
1520 GMT: The Karroubi Response. A "source close to Mehdi Karoubi" has told Rooz Online's English-language website:
That is a straightforward reaction, but the emerging question for us is whether Karroubi comes to the forefront to lead the protests on Qods Day next Friday. The source's comments were focused on the narrower question of the abuse investigation: "Mr. Karoubi shall continue his pursue of the cases of the victims of the post election atrocities....The issue is very clear: Crimes have taken place and the Islamic system is responsible to investigate them."
1515 GMT: More of the Hard Line. The Supreme Leader's address was not the only tough talk on Friday. The leader of prayers in Qom has wondered why Mir Hossein Mousavi has not been arrested and called for the "voice" of the Green movement to be "strangled" on Qods Day.
1500 GMT: Back after an afternoon break. Radio Farda has posted a summary of the Karroubi letter to head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani (English text in separate entry), emphasising Karroubi's declaration that the Revolutionary Guard has hidden documentation of rapes of detainees.
1120 GMT: Agence France Presse's take on the speech: Confrontation. They use this extract, "Those who draw swords against the regime will be confronted. Differences of views should not lead to conflicts....The policy of the regime is to work with the majority. But if opposition groups have ideas that are against the nation's security and the principles of the regime, they will be confronted."
1115 GMT: Irony of the Day (so far). I'm just checking in after a trip to Manchester --- thanks to Mike Dunn and Chris Emery for covering the Supreme Leader's speech.
Reading the updates, 0855 GMT stands out: "Supreme Leader recalls the memory of a modern Shia icon: Ayatollah Taleghani, a contemporary of Ayatollah Khomenei who died shortly after the Revolution."
Hmm, would that be the same Ayatollah Taleghani whose memorial service was initially blocked, for the first time in 30 years, by the regime earlier this week?
0935 GMT: And it's over. The Supreme Leader ends a hardline, but to some observers nervous, performance with a final warning against any Quds Day demonstrations. A full analysis will follow once we have collected our thoughts..
0930 GMT: Great Britain singled out for more than 200 years of experience of evil in Iran.
0925 GMT: Khamenei recalls another momentous in Iran's modern history. He is now recalling Iran's victory over the US in the 1998 soccer World Cup! "Iran's goal is a goal for us"!
0920 GMT: State TV showing crowds outside Friday Prayers singing 'Death to England'.
0910 GMT: VIPs present - Larijani Ali and Sadegh Larijani, Rahim Safavi, Hassan Rowhani, Int. Minister Heydar Moslehi. President Ahmadinejad seated next to Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, former judiciary chief.
0906 GMT: Khamenei justifies the crack down..."All States, even European ones, react with force to violent threats. We accept criticism, but not threats."
0900 GMT: A nod to tolerance clearly setting up an attack on dissent. "Differences in opinion are valid and accepted within the framework of the system. The system will not react against anyone in this case; people who do not want to wreck the peace of the regime, and of society will not be dealt with."
0857 GMT: "There have been divisions throughout the revolution", some costly,. others not for the revolution, Khomeini dealt with them at all levels, people who were revolutionaries but that we could no longer work with." The Supreme Leader appears to be trying to reassert his leadership of the Revolution's legacy and the current political system.
0855 GMT: Supreme Leader starts the second sermon by recalling the memory of a modern Shia icon: Ayatollah Taleghani, a contemporary of Ayatollah Khomenei who died shortly after the Revolution.
0850 GMT: Khamenei has the whole crowd weeping: Suspicions that Ali Larijani's tears are less than convincing. Crowd is big, although they are yet to show the sorrounding streets.
0845 GMT: The SL is winding up the first sermon, the Quranic one, but building up to a possibly confronational second sermon: "Imam Ali said "after tollerance, Ali drew the sword"
0840 GMT: 'What would the Imam Ali do?' The Supreme Leader is drawing heavily on themese of 'spirituality' with particular emphasis on Imam's Ali's example.
0830 GMT: The Speech begins and the Supreme Leader warns of the "dangers" of the seperation of religion from politics. Politics becomes "immoral" in that case, just like in the "secular western".
0430 GMT: We've prepared for today's big events, the Supreme Leader's address at Friday prayers in Tehran, with a quick preview of the issues at play both for the opposition and for the regime. And no doubt we'll be occupied today with covering and then deciphering the speech.
This should not, however, ignore another development. The Green movement has not folded in the face of the toughest strikes on its leadership since the days after the 12 June election. Mir Hossein Mousavi has responded, with his criticism of the Government and his upholding of the "Green Path of Hopse"; the impact of this, given the restrictions on Mousavi's communications, remains to be seen.
Perhaps even more important, however, the Mehdi Karroubi network has bounced back. The Etemade Melli party website (including Saham News) has revived, against the expectations of many. Today Karroubi publishes his letter to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, on the investigation of the abuse of detainees. Karroubi's line is clear: the Ahmadinejad Government's raids and arrests this week were meant to stop this process, but this must not happen.
Which, of course, raises a vital question: after his recent reference to those "outside the law", does Larijani agree?
Iran: Josh Shahryar's Snap Analysis of the Supreme Leader's Speech
Iran: Questions on Prayer Day
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2200 GMT: We have received further information on both the Rah-e-Sabz and New York Times stories on the Khamenei order for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi and on the Rafsanjani "retreat" because of military pressure.The information indicates that one of Hashemi Rafsanjani's colleagues has confirmed the Karroubi arrest story to one of the best reporters covering Iran. We are therefore taking the story very seriously.
More to come in a special analysis on Saturday.
2120 GMT: An EA correspondent picks up the following from the Rah-e-Sabz story on Rafsanjani's apparent retreat: "He went as far as to say that Karroubi's arrest warrant should not have been issued by Khamenei himself and that the presence of the IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] in the political sphere will make matters 'complicated'. Khamenei apparently reacted with a long silence to this remark."
2100 GMT: Rumour of the Day. Rah-e-Sabz reports that an "informed source" claims that the Supreme Leader has issued an order for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi. Almost as significant is the claim, from the same report, that Hashemi Rafsanjani has told members of the Center for Strategic Research of the Expediency Council, about a meeting between himself and Ayatollah Khamenei: “I will back away from everything, they are not granting me permission to speak at the Friday prayers anymore.”
The New York Times, which picked up the story, has added from "a person close to Mr. Rafsanjani" that "the order was issued at least two weeks ago".
1945 GMT: Journalist Mohammad Hasan Fallahizadeh, who had been on hunger strike in Evin Prison, was released on Wednesday on medical grounds.
1520 GMT: The Karroubi Response. A "source close to Mehdi Karoubi" has told Rooz Online's English-language website:
Mr. Karoubi was taken back over the closure of the committee because he believed that the two meetings that he had with judiciary officials on the subject were very constructive.If the committee continues its work with Mr. Karoubi, then many issues will come to light. New issues are surfacing with every passing day. They wish to cut Mr. Karoubi from the people.
That is a straightforward reaction, but the emerging question for us is whether Karroubi comes to the forefront to lead the protests on Qods Day next Friday. The source's comments were focused on the narrower question of the abuse investigation: "Mr. Karoubi shall continue his pursue of the cases of the victims of the post election atrocities....The issue is very clear: Crimes have taken place and the Islamic system is responsible to investigate them."
1515 GMT: More of the Hard Line. The Supreme Leader's address was not the only tough talk on Friday. The leader of prayers in Qom has wondered why Mir Hossein Mousavi has not been arrested and called for the "voice" of the Green movement to be "strangled" on Qods Day.
1500 GMT: Back after an afternoon break. Radio Farda has posted a summary of the Karroubi letter to head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani (English text in separate entry), emphasising Karroubi's declaration that the Revolutionary Guard has hidden documentation of rapes of detainees.
1120 GMT: Agence France Presse's take on the speech: Confrontation. They use this extract, "Those who draw swords against the regime will be confronted. Differences of views should not lead to conflicts....The policy of the regime is to work with the majority. But if opposition groups have ideas that are against the nation's security and the principles of the regime, they will be confronted."
1115 GMT: Irony of the Day (so far). I'm just checking in after a trip to Manchester --- thanks to Mike Dunn and Chris Emery for covering the Supreme Leader's speech.
Reading the updates, 0855 GMT stands out: "Supreme Leader recalls the memory of a modern Shia icon: Ayatollah Taleghani, a contemporary of Ayatollah Khomenei who died shortly after the Revolution."
Hmm, would that be the same Ayatollah Taleghani whose memorial service was initially blocked, for the first time in 30 years, by the regime earlier this week?
0935 GMT: And it's over. The Supreme Leader ends a hardline, but to some observers nervous, performance with a final warning against any Quds Day demonstrations. A full analysis will follow once we have collected our thoughts..
0930 GMT: Great Britain singled out for more than 200 years of experience of evil in Iran.
0925 GMT: Khamenei recalls another momentous in Iran's modern history. He is now recalling Iran's victory over the US in the 1998 soccer World Cup! "Iran's goal is a goal for us"!
0920 GMT: State TV showing crowds outside Friday Prayers singing 'Death to England'.
0910 GMT: VIPs present - Larijani Ali and Sadegh Larijani, Rahim Safavi, Hassan Rowhani, Int. Minister Heydar Moslehi. President Ahmadinejad seated next to Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, former judiciary chief.
0906 GMT: Khamenei justifies the crack down..."All States, even European ones, react with force to violent threats. We accept criticism, but not threats."
0900 GMT: A nod to tolerance clearly setting up an attack on dissent. "Differences in opinion are valid and accepted within the framework of the system. The system will not react against anyone in this case; people who do not want to wreck the peace of the regime, and of society will not be dealt with."
0857 GMT: "There have been divisions throughout the revolution", some costly,. others not for the revolution, Khomeini dealt with them at all levels, people who were revolutionaries but that we could no longer work with." The Supreme Leader appears to be trying to reassert his leadership of the Revolution's legacy and the current political system.
0855 GMT: Supreme Leader starts the second sermon by recalling the memory of a modern Shia icon: Ayatollah Taleghani, a contemporary of Ayatollah Khomenei who died shortly after the Revolution.
0850 GMT: Khamenei has the whole crowd weeping: Suspicions that Ali Larijani's tears are less than convincing. Crowd is big, although they are yet to show the sorrounding streets.
0845 GMT: The SL is winding up the first sermon, the Quranic one, but building up to a possibly confronational second sermon: "Imam Ali said "after tollerance, Ali drew the sword"
0840 GMT: 'What would the Imam Ali do?' The Supreme Leader is drawing heavily on themese of 'spirituality' with particular emphasis on Imam's Ali's example.
0830 GMT: The Speech begins and the Supreme Leader warns of the "dangers" of the seperation of religion from politics. Politics becomes "immoral" in that case, just like in the "secular western".
0430 GMT: We've prepared for today's big events, the Supreme Leader's address at Friday prayers in Tehran, with a quick preview of the issues at play both for the opposition and for the regime. And no doubt we'll be occupied today with covering and then deciphering the speech.
This should not, however, ignore another development. The Green movement has not folded in the face of the toughest strikes on its leadership since the days after the 12 June election. Mir Hossein Mousavi has responded, with his criticism of the Government and his upholding of the "Green Path of Hopse"; the impact of this, given the restrictions on Mousavi's communications, remains to be seen.
Perhaps even more important, however, the Mehdi Karroubi network has bounced back. The Etemade Melli party website (including Saham News) has revived, against the expectations of many. Today Karroubi publishes his letter to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, on the investigation of the abuse of detainees. Karroubi's line is clear: the Ahmadinejad Government's raids and arrests this week were meant to stop this process, but this must not happen.
Which, of course, raises a vital question: after his recent reference to those "outside the law", does Larijani agree?
tagged Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Expediency Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Hasan Fallahizadeh, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, New York Times, Qods Day, Rah-e-Sabz, Rooz Online in Middle East & Iran
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Expediency Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Hasan Fallahizadeh, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, New York Times, Qods Day, Rah-e-Sabz, Rooz Online in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (26)
The full translation of Karoubi's letter:
http://khordaad88.com/?p=482
Thanks Khordaad88 for the translation. Fascinating reading! Karroubi is a very courageous man...
Quote Khamenei: "people who were revolutionaries but that we could no longer work with.”
Hmm... Is this a direct threat to HASHEMI ???
List of VIP's seem very very thin !!!
@afshin, I believe it to be a warning to Hashemi and Grand Ayatollahs who have defied him. He was spitting Shit like Mussolini from the balcony. His justification of the crackdowns is to me just anohter sign of weakness. His speech was probably written by the Guards. I now actually believe that their power is overestimated. They`re following Sun-tzu`s principles of art of war; "If you`re weak appear to be strong", Hashemi himself applying the principles of Sun-Tzu, " if you`re strong, appear to be weak", expect a big blow from Hashemi and his allies. Hashemi has been a Shark since the age of 15, he`s the "teflon ayatollah"
A big showdown is a head.
Afshin, Arash,
The present ruling elite in Iran being illegitimate, incompetent and incapable of any positive policy in pragmatic terms, will have to maintain it's aggressive policy for it's survival .
Just like a bicycle rider on a hot burning road who needs to pedal faster and faster or else he'll fall and burn .
Little do they know that the hot burning soil is never ending , for it is non stop being constructed by their tyrannical and unseen savage treatment of the Iranian people.
On this road they can only wear out their tires as well as their energy and burn,
joining all the other dictators in the history.
They can not escape from the vicious circle that they have created .
Iranians have been paying a very high price for their freedom in the past 100 years.
Hopefully the victory is close. "Darkest before Light".
"There have been divisions throughout the revolution”, some costly, others not for the revolution, Khomeini dealt with them at all levels, people who were revolutionaries but that we could no longer work with.”
There are numerous examples of the above but above all I think the SL is talking about Montazeri who was Imam's Khomeini designated successor but whou proved to be an unstable character. His support of the violent "Mehdi Hashemi Gang" (his son in law was involved) led to a fanatical feud with Rafsanjani and he tried everything he could to undermine Rafsanjani. See Michael Rubin's book "Into the Shadows", Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran.
@ Scott Lucas
Yes and also the same Taleghani that people chanted for in the streets claiming to have been murdered by the Khomeini and gang? Was the chant not;
Beheshti, Beheshti, Taleghani ro to koshti?
Beheshti, Beheshti, It was U who killed Taleghani.
Same Beheshti was murdered him self (claimed to be done by Mujjahedin, Who had Taleghani as their spiritual guide, but also claimed by some that Hashemi and Khamanei where behind the killings)
And is it not the same Beheshti who's son is now improsend by the guards !
URGENT!! From NIAC website. This is the first I have seen of this and have no cooberating evidence or supporting reports however NIAC's source is the NY Times.
http://niacblog.wordpress.com/
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/12/world/middleeast/12iran.html?_r=1
http://www.rahesabz.net/story/1399/
Has anyone heard more of this???
Scott,
I might suggest that you're overlooking a very important angle in the Karroubi arrest RUMOR: Raffers. Reading NIAC, if true, he's being silenced/vowing NOT to speak if that means supporting the gov't.
OOPS! Nevermind Scott. See you got this covered.
Thought: If Raffers steps down from everything, then he must not have a majority in the Assembly. If he did, despite his caution, I think he'd use it before resigning.
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1333
Quite interesting article from J.Hannah dated sept. 9th, (i don't think i saw it
mentioned here) Title is explicit ( Time to Get Serious about Helping Iran's Opposition).
A pity that one has to search so much to find this kind of paper/analysis in international press (apart from the staff at E.A and our faithful Green Brief. of course !)
Karroubi arrested if it's confirmed anytime soon +tight paranoid maneuvres of guards
and bassij to get control over Qods manifestations, it seems such an explosive formula, doesn't it ?
Really exciting and intresting coming days indeed.....
Wonder if Hashemi rumours are true and if they manage to silence Karoubi. And what will Mousavi do..... Will they really artrest them if they dont back down and how will the people's reaction be like !!??
Incredible how this crisis seems to worsen by the day... I think till QODS DAY things should even escalate more...
Scott, something I'd like you to think about Re: Hashemi's retreat/threat to resign. Given his impeccable Revolutionary credentials, could it be a ploy to shame Khamenei? You know, how could a so-called clerical regime push out a pillar of the IRI?
Or, more implausibly, a ploy to gain emergency sympathy in the Assembly? As if to say, "We stop this NOW, or I'm done."
kevina
Such sickening news. Do you think Hashemi meant he's resigning his posts when he said “I will back away from everything, they are not granting me permission to speak at the Friday prayers anymore.”? It could be read other ways-- maybe he's saying he is backing off from the situation at this time. Either way, it is grave.
I wonder if they actually would arrest Karoubi. I asked whereismyvote some dumb questions in the http://enduringamerica.com/2009/09/11/iran-mehdi-karroubis-letter-to-sadegh-larijani-on-detainees/comment-page-1/#comment-8473" rel="nofollow">Mehdi Karroubi’s Letter to Sadegh Larijani on Detainees post & he went over the problems entailed in arresting either Karoubi or Hashemi.
kevina
You must have posted just before me. You may be onto something... maybe a game of 'chicken'. After all these discussions, I just can't buy that Hashemi is done.
@Amy
Agreed on the stupidity of arresting Karroubi. The Pasdaran seem unmoved by logic right now, however.
On Hashemi, he HASN'T yet resigned from anything. Could he be using the threat to do so as shaming leverage?
Or as MikVerbrugge (remember last night's convo?) speculates (optimistically), he's just getting out of the way of the upcoming revolt?
Afshin
Just saw your post. Do you think they would arrest Karoubi? I was thinking No, but then it would make sense to put him in jail for a few days just before Qods day, hoping to let some air out of the Green balloon. Bastards
(edit)
Somehow, I don't think they have the nerve. (not that I'm in any position to know)
kevina
Just looked back at yesterday. Good point. Here's one of Afshin's posts. I guess the question is "cornered beast" or un-seduced shark?
Final note tonight (from me):
Just to note, some Iranian tweeters (like @persianbanoo) aren't YET convinced the whole story's true. They think it could be false gov. news.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iZfgLuKrg3QBRltJ0qQMIzgIohdQD9ALB71G0" rel="nofollow">US says 6 nations accept Iran's offer to talk
Regarding Khamenei's speech friday, upon his political platform ( a clear example of how this regime uses Islam) He mentioned criticism of the system is welcomed. Well I would like an example of this, becouse to my knowledge anyone who has critisized the system has truly paid the price. Lets just ask a few GRAND AYATOLLAHS
Grand Ayatollah Kazemeyni Boroujerdi. He opposed Khamenei and the concept of Islamic rule, he was imprisioned Oct. 2006 along with many of his followers.
Grand Ayatollah Yasubedin Raslegari, Has been imprisioned since April 27, 2004 after criticizing the states systematic oppression of its citizens rights.
Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, questioned Khamenei's qualifications to be a Marja e Taqlid (source of Emulation) in retaliation the revolutionary guards detained and humilated him by forcing him to wear his night cap rather than his white turban.. In Oct. 2007 Grand Ayatollah montazeri was placed under house arrest, with the excuse of protecting him from hardliners, after criticizing Khamenei. These are just hard facts, not just another speech full of venom, spreading lies.
@ Amy,
I think they are playing Poker again, In the Parlement we saw how good A.N can play thins game. Announcing his list of ministers so late and then even passing the deadline. Eventually the S.L and the Conservatives and Pricipilists caved in. Also with his choice of first vice president he did the same, he did not back down and was the moral winner over S.L eventhough the S.L got his way the vice president was not fired, but quite himself.
So NO i do not think they will arrest him, atleast not now, perhaps AFTER QUDS day, after they get the situation calm again. This is just playing poker again. Now lets see if Karoubi would call their bluff.
Hi Amy,
I went through my original reaction from a few days ago when the arrests and these last threats started and this was my original response;
Afshin says: September 8th, 2009 at 18:55
I think we are making assumptions maybe a little to soon and looking for more behind these actions then maybe intended.
My guess is they are just flexing the muscles, showing whose the boss and saying wacht what u do on Sept 18. I’m sure you dont want trouble, consider your selves warned.
I would guess they do a few more of these things. This is just powerplay..