The Latest from Iran: Challenge Renewed (19 September)
Posted by Scott Lucas in Middle East & IranNEW Iran After Qods Day: What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?
NEW Iran: Another Qods Day Participant Writes
Latest Iran Video: More from Qods Day (18-19 September)
NEW Iran: The Five Lessons of Qods Day
Qods Day Video Special: The Black-and-White Soccer Game
Iran’s Qods Day: The Participants Speak
Qods Day: The Discussion Continues
Iran Qods Day: Snap Analysis and Summary Translation of Ahmadinejad Speech
The Latest from Iran (18 September): Qods Day
NEW Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)
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2200 GMT: We took a break tonight to recuperate from the drama of Friday. To be honest, almost all the chatter is a recycling of the events and images of Qods Day.
There are intriguing developments surrounding the clerical opposition to the Government. Mowj-e-Sabz reports that Grand Ayatollah Montazeri was forced to cancel an important annual prayer.
The Green Movement is highlighting the possibility that marjas, the highest-ranking senior clerics, will not declare that Ramadan has ended Sunday and can be celebrated with the feast of Eid al-Fitr. In particular, it is noted that the websites of Ayatollah Montazeri and of Ayatollah Sane’i have not yet declared that the Holy Month is over.
Ayatollahs Mousavi-Ardebili, Safi-Golpaygani, and Bayat-Zanjani are also declaring that they have not seen the crescent of the moon. And now Hojatoleslam Taghdiri, the head of the crescent observation committee of Tehran Province, has said that there is no way that the crescent can be observed tonight, permitting Eid al-Fitr to proceed tomorrow.
The statements are significant because they defy the declaration of the Supreme Leader that Sunday is the end of Ramadan holiday.
1540 GMT: In his first statement after Qods Day, Mehdi Karroubi has told medical faculty of the great opportunity “to expose in court atrocities which would have made the Shah look good”.
1250 GMT: The Quds Day Football Mystery (continued). Two readers continue the tireless effort to sort out what happened with last night’s Iranian state TV broadcast of the Esteghlal-Estell Azin match (video in separate entry and see 0740 GMT). Both note that the game was re-broadcast, after the “problems” with live transmission. One notes, “It was in colour and not in black and white as reported. There were many Esteghlal fans in the stadium but almost all of them came in blue. You could see glimpses of green colour among them, but, as I said, about 95% of the came in blue. I also couldn’t hear any opposition slogans during the game, to be honest.”
The other reader has the possible answer: “They started over from the beginning of the match, in color, with the sound edited from another match (so Green chants could not be heard). Also they cut away several times to another camera on the sideline for showing reaction shots of the bench/coaches, even though they said there was only one camera in Azadi Stadium.”
1240 GMT: Maryam at Keeping the Change has taken on the task of sifting through the information to establish “whether Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Mohammad Khatami…took part in the Qods Day demonstrations”. Her thoughtful but provocative assessment:
Mousavi and Rafsanjani could have been forced to appear in the protests against their wills or may have been given the choice to either stay away from the demonstrations or attend the government-sponsored rallies. The men may have calculated that failing to appear at the marches would be more damaging than participating in the pro-government demonstrations….The utilitarian calculations of the two men and the propaganda potential of these images aside, the presence of Mousavi, in particular, at the pro-government rally may prove to have undermined his “Opposition”-credentials, giving the impression (whether true or misleading) that he has become less assertive, more prone to succumb to government pressure, and/or is in a weakened position vis vis the government. As for Rafsanjani, a similar analysis may be appropriate, though his historical tendency to walk a fine line between competing interest groups militates against rushing to judgment on his motivations.
1130 GMT: Definitely a lull after the storm of events. We’ve now completed and posted the analyses of Mr Smith, “What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?“, and of Scott Lucas, “Iran: The Five Lessons of Qods Day“. We’ve also got a new account from a participant in the demonstration and a new video thread as well as yesterday’s video collection.
0830 GMT: Contrary to our fears at the end of yesterday, it appears that the regime’s restrictions on the Internet were more to stifle the Qods Day protests than as a forerunner of an even more intense crackdown of arrests. Some Internet services have been restored in Iran.
0820 GMT: Three of the grandchildren of Ayatollah Montazeri, arrested yesterday, have been released. Three of his grandchildren remain in detention.
0740 GMT: The Qods Day Football Match. Our quirkiest story of the day, complete with video, gets even better. The latest account is that state television’s coverage was delayed and limited to one black-and-white camera not because of the fears of Green symbols and chants but because the regime’s efforts to limit communications hindered IRIB’s technical systems. (I think the Blue team won 2-0 but I can’t tell which one was Blue.)
0600 GMT: To be honest, this is a holding entry. For the first time in 24 hours, it is possible to draw breath and take a reflective step back, as the news from Iran is slow this morning, in part because of the Government’s attempts to close down information on the scale of its setback yesterday, more because everyone is trying to take in exactly what happened on Qods Day.
The regime will try to regain its balance today. Press TV has a lovely example. Its story just before I went to bed was “Iran’s Opposition Marches on Qods Day“, a recognition that “supporters of Iran’s opposition movement…joined the major annual commemorative rally showing their loyalty to their leaders”. This morning the website is back on the proper line: “Iranians March in Solidary with Palestinians”.
But, barring a swift crackdown by the Government, with a wave of high-profile arrests, the question of initiative will be with the opposition. What can the leaders and the Green Wave do with the opportunity offered by the tens of thousands who, after all that has been thrown at protest to make it go away, “won” with their defiance — in anger, sadness, hope, and more than a bit of humour — yesterday?
That’s what EA staff will work on now. The first part of our opening analysis is now posted.
Entries (RSS)
After the analyses of the War being fought (at each level/Battlefield), The analyses of Hashemi’s Arsenal of Weapons and finally the weapon arsenal of the S.L I was hoping to do the same for the Guards today. Instead I want to make another analyses, of which the opening might raise a few eyebrows.
Qods day was great victory for the Supreme Leader.
Yes it absolutly was. Yes you are reading this right, Supreme leader was the absolute Victor yesterday and no Samuel has not managed to hack my computer and is not writing this in my place.
Well offcourse there is BIG unless. Qods day was great victory for the Supreme Leader UNLESS either the Guards, Hashemi/ Reformists or the Public is willing to go all the way.
If none of these parties is willing to take this to the next level then we are just replaying the moves ending things in a draw and in that case the S.L is the only winner. Let me explain more;
We have called this great battle the 4 sided chess match before. Actually there are 6 sides but 1 we left out and the other we united with the reformists. For today though I would like to look at aal sides and specially what it is they are fighting for;
1) the Guards,
Well I guess it is clear what they want, they want a coup, they have been working hard at it for years and are more or less on target, getting there bit by bit. They want the old establishment out. I have said this before something is making them increase spead causing them issues. It’s like they are on a race against the clock. The only thing I could think off was the S.L being more ill then we all think. Hashemi being the Head of Assembly of experts would pose a serious threat and would need to be dealt with before that day comes.
Results Qods day : Not great, they saw their enemies take over Qods day, regain legitimacy and strenght.
2) Hashemi,
Hashemi is and represents the old establishment. The Clerical regime, the Marja’s, the ayatollahs, Qom and to a great extent Mashhad. They not only want their piece of the pie but also are forced to act, to unite, to fight back as the guards have opend a full attack on them. They are almost forced in to this war.
Results Qods day : Not bad, People did shout for Montazeri, Sanei and even Hashemi. Could have been better but it was a good start.
3) Reformist,
The leaders of the reformist are pretty much all old establishment them selves. And it is here that the most important question rises; do they just want back in and are claiming their piece of the pie OR are they really wanting change? Perhaps even both but if so then which of the two has their priority? If they want real change then they infact represent the people and we were right to exclude them as a player on the chess board since they are being represented by the reformist. If they are fighting for them selves first and foremost then people should be considerd a player as well.
Results Qods day : A good win, They were pushedm they were shoved, they were threatend, arrested, hospitalised, even attacked on the day (khatami) but stood their ground and the people answered. The turnup was not in the millions but beyond the expectation of many.
4) the People,
We left them out before as they are represented by the reformists. People want change, Religious, not religious, Pro Revolution, anti revolution, does not really matter, even parts of the guards want change.
Results Qods day : Small win, we did not see the millions but still a huge crowed. A small victory, yet one has to mention that the police and the guards seemed to have been ordered to keep quit. It would have been a great victory if the people had some more resistance on their way and would have come on top still.
5) Foreign powers
Well this is another one we have left out and I guess they are participating in the war amongst them selves.
- Russia and China on one side (lost yesterday)
- Europe, they have also many interests in Iran and want to protect them, they have remaind out of the danger zone so far
- USA, well they also want theit piece of pie back. I guess who they get it from is not really important.
Results Qods day : Loss for China and Russia, Europe hard to say, Usa Hard to say as I do not know what their interests are at the moment.
6) Supreme Leader
Supreme leader is very much the representative of the Conservatives and the principlists. Allthough he has seen some conservatives flirt with hashemi and some priciplist flirt with the guards he is still the main man and the only one who wants a status quo. He need a balans of power which he has managed so badly that it may tip over now. He can not afford to let the Reformists back in to much as they represent the people, are backed by the clerics and also represent everything he loaths, he cant let them be ousted to much as the balans of power is gone, once the reformists and the Clerics are gone his role becomes obsolete and he is the next to go in the hunger for power of the guards. He needs to keep the balans, a somewhat weak but alive opposition vs the Guards and him in the middle.
If what i claim above is correct then the S.L is indeed the winner of Qods day. Cause right now we are still very much in a position of runing in circles repeating the moves. Looking at the same groups one can say ok we know what they want but what will they settle for. In some cases its hard to say but lets have a try;
1) the Guards,
I think they want it all, they will not settle with anything less then full control. They fear something, perhaps Hashemi and the clerics (assembly of Expert incase the leader dies) they need this to end now. Specially now that more and more clerics are seeing the ploth
2) Hashemi
He is is a position of power, Status quo for now suits him fine. He is on the defence and he can play the ropes. Let the guards come. I think he is very capable of accepting a bargain.
3) Reformist,
Unless they want to go all the way which I doubt they would, their faith seems very much in the hands of Hashemi for now. Ithink they are all capable of making a deal.
4) The People
I doubt that people will settle for anything else then Change, the question is will they accept gradual change or can they be fooled with the illusion of change yet again (8 years of Khatami) ?
5) The West
Well they all want their piece of the pie and they are not crazy about sharing
China and Russia – Status Quo just suits them fine
Europe – Same here
USA – Well they are the big losers of the revolution, left or right give us our piece. How they want to achieve this I am not sure, regime change, Deal with S.L ??
6) S.L
well status Qua fits him just fine. Perhaps bye off some reformistsm give them some symbolic victories and stay in power till the end. His problem however is the other players are out of control and as I stated in the S.L analyses his guns are not working good.
Will anybody take this to the next level? if so then the S.L may end up being the biggest loser, will they smell danger and settle Supreme leader would be the great victor.
Personally I seriously doubt this match will end up in a tie but how will they take it to the next level. Arresting of Karoubi and Mousavi, the assembly of expert meeting are things to watch for now.
Incredible analysis, Afshin. I’ve wondered about SL playing the sides off against one another, If either side goes down, SL is toast. It may partially explain why Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karoubi & Mohammed Khatami have not been arrested. SL needs them.
Looking forward to reading today’s other analyses, but will have to wait till later in the day.
re. building on yesterday’s march, any thoughts or rumors of action on Eid ul-Fitr?
Internet Traffic in Iran for 9/19/09, Current Index 60 (with 73 as average for Asia), with a Response Rate of 304ms. They seem to have Internet:
http://www.internettrafficreport.com/history/308.htm
There’s one other player in the political maneuvering. He has returned to Iran from distant tea houses of the middle east. Though not always reliable, he seems worth considering. It is the somewhat obscure Mullah Nasrudin, sometimes wise, although he has never actually seen a soccer match.
Mullah Nasrudin has done a careful analysis and was able to find all the missing votes. He confided only in his wife and made no public announcement. We managed to record a private conversation between the Mullah and his wife. Ref: http://wp.me/soSaJ-t3turban A transcript follows:
( Mullah Nasrudin couldn’t wait to tell his wife about his good luck at the Bazaar.)
“But you were gone a long time and you’ve brought nothing back,” she said.
“I discovered a new game at the Bazaar called ‘Three Turban Dinejad’ ”
“What happened,” she said, “you have nothing.What’s this game?”
Mullah Nasrudin said, “One guesses. There are three turbans. Under one is 40 million ballots.”
“You saw this? How is it possible to fit 40 million ballots under one turban?”
“Well,” said Nasrudin, “they’ve been shrunk into mica and quartz chips — looks like sand.”
“You have to guess under which turban is a pile of sand?” Nasrudin’s wife said.
“Yes,” said Mullah Nasrudin, “and I guessed correctly and won a prize.”
Mullah Nasrudin’s wife was excited, “What’s the prize?”
“It’s a camel,” said Mullah Nasrudin.
The Mullah’s wife was puzzled. “Where is it?”
Mullah Nasrudin said, “It’s under my turban.”
“to expose in court atrocities which would have made the Shah look good”.
“made the Shah look good”???
This is the kind of insane, crazy, garbage quality comment that makes one wonder whether Karroubi is presently consuming copious quantities of Heroin. Honestly, I’ll be the first to denounce crazy comments about Holocaust denial (from AN or anyone else) but Karroubi has actually won the prize.
@Amy
I doubt much would happen. Perhaps some kids who’s start some small protests on their own but I would not expect anything big as it is not managed bu the Opposition leaders same as Qods was.
Howevere there is a clear danger in it. A.N and the S.L do not really want any casualties at this moment and these sorta unplanned actions could lead to unplanned Basiji reaction and people could die. But I dont expect much to happen. It is the Guards turn to make a move, lets see what they do.
Very interesting analysis by Afshin but I have a question regarding the Guards.
Is it just the leader Mohammad Ali Jafari that you refer to? is it an elite group of Generals around him? Who are they, what are their identities and backgrounds? If it is a collective leadership and not just a one man show (Jafari) then there are questions of intra-group interests and disputes.
I guess my point is that if we are talking about a Guard coup scenario we have to understand the personalities involved, we have to understand that most coups historically eventually focuses on one individual: Hafez al Assad in Syria, Pinochet in Chile, Franco in Spain, Suharto in Indonesia, Colonel Nasser in Egypt, Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq in Pakistan, Musharraf later in Pakistan.
Who is this strongman waiting in the wings ready to take charge in Iran?
Again history tells us that collective leadership in coups don’t work. One man, a Nasser for example, assumes the mantle of power.
I myself do not believe that the Guards are working to sideline the SL and we should all note that the SL looked healthy during last week’s Friday Prayers. http://www.shiatv.net/view_video.php?viewkey=ee6179bfc4bcb64bbbfb
While I generally disagree with Samuel philosophically regarding the reformists, I haven’t really seen any evidence to back up a lot of the speculation I’m seeing regarding potential conflict between the SL and the Guards. So I tend to agree with him on this one given that I don’t see any evidence of the current Guard leadership working against the SL. The Guards have the power that they do because the SL gave it to them despite Khomeini’s injunction that they should stay out of politics. Khamenei did this so they would act just as they are doing now, as a bulwark of support against the reformists who he fears will end up turning Iran into a paradise for atheists, homosexuals, pornographers & zionists should they achieve sufficient power. (I’m not saying that’s what would happen, only that I believe he thinks that will be the result.) Giving the Guards political power is thus seen as a lesser evil by him. Even if he does recognize the theoretical possibility of a threat from the Guard, it probably pales in comparison to the threat presented by the reformists in his eyes.
Now that said, just because I don’t think the guard is a threat to the current SL at the moment doesn’t mean I think it won’t be a threat to the next SL. I see a showdown looming between the Ahmadi government and the Mesbah-Yazdi faction of extremist clerics which seem to think they’re above the law on the one hand, and the principle-ists and the rest of Qom defending the law on the other after Khamenei passes away. The Pasdaran leadership may well stick their nose into the election within the Assembly of Experts in order to obtain the decision they desire and/or refuse to acknowledge a winner its leadership doesn’t like and back a loser instead. Should they throw their support behind Mesbah-Yazdi as some now fear, then that may well spell the end of the republic in name as well as deed unless the people were to start rising up in significantly larger numbers then they are currently doing.
@ Peter
Perhaps you are not paying enough attention, some examples;
1) S. Larrijani (The Guards fought against it, the Leader for it)
2) The Fight over Vice President
3) The Fight within the Intelligence ministery
4) A.N saying literally to the Majlis that the country os to be run by him, the cabinet and the Majlis and that the S.L should not be busy with the running of the country
Some things to be aware of;
A) Just because S.L allowed the Guards to come to power does not mean the dog is not grwoing out of control.
B) Same as the S.L allowed the Guards to grow, so is he prepring a balance of power. Allowing the Reformist just enough to be present, investing in conservatives such as the Larrijanis and hence forming a new force
Weather the S.L is ill or not the Guards need to win this battle BEFORE he passes away, Even if his health is good now he is a old man with many health issues. They dont have forever and if the S.L was to passaway Hashemi would as head of Assembly of Experts pose a serious threat to them.
@Afshin
I grant that Ahmadinejad is guilty of all those things, but I’m not yet convinced that Ahmadinejad=The Current Republican Guard Leadership. Certainly AN has no room for those who disagree with him like the Larijani brothers and rewards loyalty over competence. He’s packing his cabinet and the Intel ministry with former Guard officers like himself with a mindset similar to his own, but that doesn’t necessarily equate to the current Guard leadership being a weapon he can play against the SL. Furthermore on 4) above, the SL specifically told a resistant Majlis to let AN have his way on the cabinet nominees, saving AN from some serious humiliation.
I don’t doubt that the SL is having second thoughts about his annointing of AN as God’s choice. But the SL values both the appearance of unity and the reputation of the government above nearly everything else. If a few innocents have to be victimized a second time by a government silencing their pleas for justice then so be it. The crimes committed against them were unfortunate, but life is filled with imperfect choices and as supreme leader the well-being of the country as a whole (as he defines it) comes first. This is where he is getting into trouble with those Marjas who believe that in his attempts to cement Islam even more firmly into Iran’s structure, the SL is destroying the very foundation of what he is fighting to save. And AN’s continued abuses of the law are just making the SL look worse and worse.
I certainly agree that the “dog is growing out of control”. When the SL passes away the RG will likely attempt to obtain veto power over his replacement at a minimum. For example, I doubt very heavily that the RG would accept Rafsanjani were he to be selected by the Assembly of Experts as the next SL.
Were the SL to die tomorrow I suspect we’d see a serious shift in the positions of many principle-ists who respect the reformists as fellow revolutionaries and a loyal opposition in an islamic republic but fear the dark path of total dictatorship down which the AN/Mesbah-Yazdi group would drag the country. It is only the SL that holds the conservatives together. Without him they’d fracture and Hashemi would likely come out on top unless the RG intervened. If the Guard intervenes Hashemi will need the support of the Greens to call up the masses so he cannot allow them to be knocked out as a political force.
[...] از ترس( دلقک بازی خیابانی )! lol, just saw this on Enduring America: 0740 GMT: The Qods Day Football Match. Our quirkiest story of the day, complete with video, gets [...]
New Public Opinion Poll in Iran shows Strong support for Iranian Govt. and Leaders.
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/639.php?nid=&id=&pnt=639&lb=
No this poll was not conducted by the Iranian govt. (“A project managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland”)
“On Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the survey finds that eight in 10 Iranians say they consider him to be the country’s legitimate president.”
More on the survey:
WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) conducted the poll of 1,003 Iranians across Iran between Aug. 27 and Sept. 10, 2009. Interviewing was conducted by a professional survey organization located outside Iran which used native Farsi speakers who telephoned into Iran (8 in 10 Iranian households have a telephone line). The margin of error is 3.1 percent. WPO, a collaborative project involving research centers from around the world, is managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland.
More from the survey:
“Most Iranians express acceptance of the outcome of the Presidential election. Eighty-one percent say they consider Ahmadinejad to be Iran’s legitimate president, and 62 percent say they have a lot of confidence in the declared election results, while 21 percent say they have some confidence. Just 13 percent say they do not have much confidence or no confidence in the results. In general, eight in 10 (81%) say they are satisfied with the process by which authorities are elected, but only half that number (40%) say they are very satisfied.”
Mmmmm. 62 Percent sounds kind of familiar.
More good stuff:
“Eight in 10 say Ahmadinejad is honest but slightly less than half – 48 percent — say he is very honest. Asked about the institutions that make up the government of the Islamic republic, large majorities express at least some confidence in major institutions. The president is viewed most favorably, with 84 percent of respondents expressing a lot (64%) of or some (20%) confidence.
Overall most Iranians express support for their current system of government. Nine in ten say they are satisfied with Iran’s system of government, though only 41 percent say they are very satisfied. Six in ten approve of the system by which a body of religious scholars has the capacity to overturn laws they deem contrary to the Koran, while one in four express opposition. A modest majority (55%) says that the way the Supreme Leader is selected is consistent with the principles of democracy, though three-fifths say they are comfortable with the extent of his power.”
But, but, but, the govt. in Iran is made up of demons who roast young children alive every other wednesday. I know the websites run by Iranian Emigres tell me so. The Shah on the other hand was the most wonderful of leaders, a combination of the Dalai Lama, Mother Theresa, Ghandi, Churchill and Albert Einstein.
Trying to find something negative about the govt. the authors say the following:
“The extremely high number of people refusing to answer questions about their voting preference–something not found in response to any other questions–suggests that people have some discomfort with this topic,” says WPO’s Kull. “Thus these findings on voting preference are not a solid basis for estimating the actual vote.”
In other words the people may feel a bit intimidated. But of course the reformists always tell us how brave they an their supporters are.
Why if you belive them 90% of the population is on the rooftops every night. And I believe them, sure I do, I’ve seen it on You Tube. You tube clips don’t distort, of course they don’t.
And people in this survey did not seem to mind differing with the govt. when it came to relations with the U.S.:
“A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of Iranians finds that six in 10 favor restoration of diplomatic relations between their country and the United States, a stance that is directly at odds with the position the Iranian government has held for three decades. A similar number favor direct talks.”
So what have we learned? It seems that the bloody, demonic, tyrannical, cannibalistic, hitlerite govt. of Iran has once again distorted a western poll so that it reflects positively on them.
How evil are their magical powers, the same powers which resulted in a similar approval level for the govt. shown in the last official poll before the election. We all know in our brains, our hearts, our guts and points south of there that no more than 5% of the population (on a good day) support the blood stained, sadists who run the most evil regime on earth today or any other time in the history of mankind. The most evil regime ever to torment this planet (or any other planet) today or in the future.
Were it not for the SL, AN, the Mafia that runs Pasdaran, the Basij, and their relatives plus the other blind, ignorant, brainwashed 5% (make that 3%) of the population Iran would be a peaceful, sublime, exquisite, prosperous, enchanting paradise.
I urge everyone to follow my example and do the following:
Print the full report on recycled (if possible) paper and then run to your rooftop with friends and neighbors as soon as possible and set said report on fire as you shout insults at the dictator. (Note it is not advisable to consume alcohol or drugs while playing with fire and it is a good idea to have a fire extinguisher ready just in case)
[...] declaration of the Supreme Leader that Sunday is the end of Ramadan holiday." continues here:http://enduringamerica.com/2009/09/1…er/#more-17654 Obviously, I am not used to the customs of the Islam (which made me wondering about the [...]
LOL
Dear Samuel,
thank you very much for the good work. It meets the expectations – would we have learnt about the outcome of the survey if it wasn’t in favour of the gov ???
And, working in the field of social science for quite a time , I would never ever trust the outcome of a survey, which doesn’t give full information of how the data is generated. Eg. you say, 8 out of 10 Iranian households have a telefon. Alright.
*** But what was the calling time and whom could one expect to have answered the calls? ***
@ Peter
“I’m not yet convinced that Ahmadinejad=The Current Republican Guard Leadership. But that doesn’t necessarily equate to the current Guard leadership being a weapon he can play against the SL. ”
Think for your self can he stand infront of the S.L disobey him for more then a WEEK, during the last days OPENLY even !!!!!! and still get away with it. He ridiculed the S.L infront of a country and then eventually did not fire his Vice president and only had him resign himself. Then fired 2 of the S.L closest allies in a show of force. DO YOU FOR A SECOND BELIEVE IN A COUNTRY LIKE IRAN ONE CAN DO THAT AND GET AWAY WITHOUT THAT MUCH MUSCLE BEHIND HIM !!!!??? specially a unelected, unpopular president under that much pressure !!!!? dont be naive
—
@ Peter Wrote : Furthermore the SL specifically told a resistant Majlis to let AN have his way on the cabinet nominees, saving AN from some serious humiliation.
Think again, to save who’s face? A.N or himself ? Infact When did my analyses on that I mentioned the S.L and A.N playing poker, outbluffing each other and I forecasted the S.L losing. A.N is a great poker player and knew there was no way in Hell S.L would allow new elections now. People would hit the street again knowing they had won even in bigger numbers. He could nbever allow new elections. A.N knew that and played that game so well. S.L had to do that. He would lose face after backing A.N so intensly and openly (over Hashemi for example).
—
Peter Wrote: I don’t doubt that the SL is having second thoughts about his annointing of AN as God’s choice.
Now you are confusing S.L with Mesbah Yazdi. He is nit Gods choice for the S.L and Its not a matter of Regret anymore, its a matter of survival.
—
@ Peter Wrote
But the SL values both the appearance of unity and the reputation of the government above nearly everything else.
Hence the Multi Million people protests, ALL THE MARJA against him, The Ols stablishment against him !!!?? A illegitimate Goverment !!! Now you are just not making sense !!!
—-
Peter Wrote : I certainly agree that the “dog is growing out of control”……
During the last part, basically you are just agreeing with the fact that the Guards are infact preparing a coup which people like “Where is my vote” and I have been saying all along. The only thing you are saying is that they would do it after the S.L death. which again is one of the scenarios we have said many times before. The only addition to that is that the Guards just tolerate the S.L and do their thing. They openly disobey him allready.
PS. Hashemi is to smart to put his faith in the hands of justthe People.
A) he has the Marjas and the rest of the clerics
B) he is openly flirting with conservatives (both Larrijanis, and they belong to the fielth of the republis, such opputunists, with A.N atleast there is a ideology, how idiotic it is atleast one can respect that he fights for something, with larrijanis same as Karoubi told Ali, I hope you wont sell your self and your reliogion for a little more power like your brother)
C) he has guns, lots of guns. He is no idiot he knows you can fight bullits with just slogans
I advise you to read my analyses of the S.L arsenal of weapons and invite to tell me if I have missed any weapons or underestimate any, when you analyse things at a detailed level like that it becomes easier to understand, assume and even predict things.
@ Samuel
PHONED INTO IRAN…. In a time of fear I doubt anyone dare say a word of being against A.N. So the results are not surprising at all.
You want solid proof I suggest you look at the pictures of the MULTI MILLION PEOPLE Marches. They dont lie… Just in Tehran half the city participated. nOW THATS solid proof….
If you disagree, ok. If you are pro A.N ok. If you condone Murder and rape in the name of religion and god. Ok. BUT Stay honest and realistic.
Dear Paleene,
Here is the methodology:
METHODOLOGY
Overview
This study was designed, managed, and analyzed by WorldPublicOpinion.org, a project managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland. Staff from this organization have carried previous studies in Iran using face-to-face interviewing and have also conducted focus groups in Iran. This organization is responsible for all of the survey questions and the interpretation of the findings.
The survey was executed by means of computer-assisted-telephone interviewing by a professional research agency outside Iran. All interviewers were native Farsi speakers. Telephone interviewing and an outside agency were chosen for this study so that there would be no political constraints on questions asked or speculation about the influence of Iranian authorities on the data collection process. In the past, when we have examined clearly documented studies of the Iranian public, such as those by Terror-Free-Tomorrow and WorldPublicOpinion.org, we have found that telephone methods and face-to-face methods have produced very similar findings with comparable questions.
Telephone Sample
Interviewing was conducted August 27-September 10, 2009 among a national sample of 1,003 Iranian adults aged 18 and older. The margin of error for a sample of this size is no larger than +/- 3.1 percentage points.
The sample was stratified by Iranian provinces using area codes and telephone exchanges for landline telephones in Iran. Numbers were randomly selected and the last four digits of actual telephone numbers were randomly varied. Academic and commercial research organizations in Iran use very similar telephone methods for surveys. When a residence
was reached, an adult was selected randomly using the next birthday technique. An initial attempt and three callbacks were made in an effort to complete an interview. A total of 1,003 interviews were completed; the interview refusal rate was 52 percent.
The household penetration of telephone landlines in Iran is reported to be over 80 percent by Iran’s telecommunication company. WorldPublicOpinion.org conducted an in home survey with a national probability sample of Iranians in January-February, 2008 and found that 84 percent of Iranians reported having a landline telephone in their household.
All thirty Iranian provinces were represented in the completed sample in proportions similar to their actual populations, as were rural and urban areas and females and males. A post-weighting procedure was employed using gender, age, province, and urban-rural residence as factors. Demographic targets were based upon 2005 data from the Statistical Center of Iran. In general, the weighting effect was quite small; however, respondents 55 years and older had to be up-weighted and those 35-44 down-weighted somewhat.
“PHONED INTO IRAN…. In a time of fear I doubt anyone dare say a word of being against A.N. So the results are not surprising at all.”
Wait a second people are not afraid to march but they are afraid of a phone call?
“If you condone Murder and rape in the name of religion and god.”
Again with this? I condone the right of the Revolution to defend itself against those (Khatami in his own words) trying to overthrow it.. No govt. is suicidal. On June 20th you stay home and you can have all the sweet tea and pastries in the world followed by a nice long nap. No one will bother even one hair on your head.
@ Samuel
YES when they call u at home then they know where u live, who you are.
Oh ok I get it now.. if you do as you are told or jus mind your own business we wont kill u, but if u speak ur mind and on june 20 do go to the street and say where is my vote then we are obliged to rape and kill you.
Now what a fine muslim you are…
SO YES AGAIN WITH THAT… I know you dont like that part because you do in your heart know its wrong and feel ashamed for it, you are to smart to belive that is right and just so you rather just not think about it, hear it or in any way be refrenced to it…. Wake up man it really happened, people said where is my vote and they got raped and killed fot it, while khatami is still free and walking in Qods day…
Dear Samuel,
again, many thanks for your contribution.
Could you possibly provide any URL to the study? Love to check the full account.
@ Samuel
The thing with you Samuel is that, amazingly enough for someone
claiming intellectual standards, you seem to be refusing to aknowledge
facts for what they are, such as the relentless stream of evidences proving
the numerous illegal actions and stinking crimes commited in the last months
under the regime’s command. Crimes that came to full light even to the well thinking-self righteous-part of the elite who’s in charge since decades (and
professes they never knew,no no, and can’t believe such a level of dirt and
degrading shame could be committede ever in the IRI etc.) Like Karroubi and
some others among cleric network, like Moussavi and his pairs on the secular
side. But those people only refer to facts/atrocities blatantly commited by
pasdaran-bassij- security (or so labelled) ‘forces’ against ordinary people of
Iran, either opponents or mere demonstrators picked up in Iran streets.
Whether denouncers in doing so have or not a political agenda that you
reprove, it doesn’t change the data nor the numbers of deaths and casualties,
nor the utmost gravity of all this. From stealing votes to stealing lives….
your gentlemen did not hesitate, and it’s too late now for you and your lot
to slander, desinformate and distort what is at last, thanks heaven,
becoming public knowledge by the day…
You hate Karroubi just like anyone, Green or not, who’s contributing to expose
the lies-corruption-violence of a regime that long ago started to defile its own religious and moral standards, currently shifting from theocracy to military
thugocracy in its ways to govern the country and deal with society at large.
One more point, very relevant as well : it’s not the first time in 2009, alas,
that iranian peaceful opponents or dissenters are savagely repressed, jailed,
tortured, raped in IRI’s gaols -and murdered as well. IRI’s known palmares in
this department, over the last 3 decades of its complex and authoritarian
politics, is more eloquent (because documented) than any
bassij-pasdaran-cleric denial rethorics put together ! As Afshin says
‘wake up man, it really happened’ !
THAT AGAIN, YES !! and it’s only a beginning they say…
@ Afshin wrote:
Think for your self can he stand infront of the S.L disobey him for more then a WEEK, during the last days OPENLY even !!!!!! and still get away with it. He ridiculed the S.L infront of a country and then eventually did not fire his Vice president and only had him resign himself. Then fired 2 of the S.L closest allies in a show of force. DO YOU FOR A SECOND BELIEVE IN A COUNTRY LIKE IRAN ONE CAN DO THAT AND GET AWAY WITHOUT THAT MUCH MUSCLE BEHIND HIM !!!!??? specially a unelected, unpopular president under that much pressure !!!!? dont be naive
—
You’re making a lot of big assumptions. The Supreme Leader is an old man who does not read the same information sources that you or I do. Nearly all of his information comes from his “closest advisors” many of whom are close to AN, including the SL’s most politically minded son. Furthermore he’s clearly invested a great deal of his own credibility into AN. AN is abusing it. But at worst the Guard only stayed neutral in the altercation over the 1st vice president, and it’s not clear to me that the SL asked them to intervene on his behalf against AN. AN’s blatant defiance might well have taken the SL by surprise, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Jafari & Co. didn’t want to get on AN’s bad side knowing that the SL wasn’t going to get rid of him any time soon.
It’s like when you see a husband slap his wife and you intervene on her behalf, only to find that she rushes to her husband’s defense against you. Is anyone who saw the altercation going to intervene again on the woman’s behalf, especially when the husband is someone as vengeful as AN? No, you’d have to be stupid to do so. This is the situation that the SL has created for himself. So I’m not surprised the Guard stayed out of the “family dispute”. But that is a far cry from the Guard being ready to move against the SL on AN’s orders in the manner that you’re characterizing the situation.
-
@ Afshin wrote:
Think again, to save who’s face? A.N or himself ? Infact When did my analyses on that I mentioned the S.L and A.N playing poker, outbluffing each other and I forecasted the S.L losing. A.N is a great poker player and knew there was no way in Hell S.L would allow new elections now. People would hit the street again knowing they had won even in bigger numbers. He could nbever allow new elections. A.N knew that and played that game so well. S.L had to do that. He would lose face after backing A.N so intensly and openly (over Hashemi for example).
-
AN is no political genius. The SL is just a bad judge of character. He took an immediate liking to AN and threw his support behind AN in such an overwhelming manner that now he can’t retract it without looking like a fool. The distinction between us is that whereas you characterize the relationship as one between poker players with AN being the superior player, I see it more as a paternal relationship where a father has allowed a favored son to get away with far more than he should have. Unfortunately for Iran, the situation has gone well past the point where the SL can sever the relationship without huge repercussions to his own authority.
-
@Afshin wrote:
Now you are confusing S.L with Mesbah Yazdi. He is nit Gods choice for the S.L and Its not a matter of Regret anymore, its a matter of survival.
-
No, I’m not. You on the other hand are forgetting the Supreme Leader’s comments regarding the divine origins of AN’s “landslide” victory.
-
@@Peter Wrote:
But the SL values both the appearance of unity and the reputation of the government above nearly everything else.
@Afshin Wrote:
Hence the Multi Million people protests, ALL THE MARJA against him, The Ols stablishment against him !!!?? A illegitimate Goverment !!! Now you are just not making sense !!!
-
Take a deep breath and calm down. The SL is on the record as having said something alone the lines of that while the deaths of some detainees were sad, the real tragedy was in the damage done to the reputation of the government. He is also on the record as having encouraged the Majlis to approve AN’s cabinet in the name of unity regardless of their lack of qualifications or shady pasts. Actions like these give thinking people a sense of the SL’s priorities. If you don’t believe me I can take the time to look up the news articles for you.
-
@@Peter Wrote : I certainly agree that the “dog is growing out of control”……
@Afshin Wrote:
During the last part, basically you are just agreeing with the fact that the Guards are infact preparing a coup which people like “Where is my vote” and I have been saying all along. The only thing you are saying is that they would do it after the S.L death. which again is one of the scenarios we have said many times before. The only addition to that is that the Guards just tolerate the S.L and do their thing. They openly disobey him allready.
-
The guards do not openly disobey him already. He’s letting them play the barking guard dog against the reformists so he can continue playing the benevolent leader who graciously restrains them. It’s a job he himself gave them so I don’t see how they’re disobeying him. I’m still waiting for you to give me one shred of proof that the guards are ready and willing to move against the SL. Instead all you’ve done is attempt to belittle me because I’ve had the audacity to question one of your assumptions. Saying that AN is willing to openly disobey the leader is insufficient as he isn’t currently in the Guard leadership. I’m still waiting for a logical response (instead of an emotional one) from you.
-
@Afshin wrote:
PS. Hashemi is to smart to put his faith in the hands of justthe People.
-
A very interesting reply, and one that I agree with.
-
@Afshin wrote:
A) he has the Marjas and the rest of the clerics
He does not yet have all the Marjas and the rest of the clerics. If he had that sort of overwhelming support then the Assembly of Experts would already slapped the SL down. He has some of them, and he’s gaining more as the days go by. But this is still very much a work in progress on his part. And his opponents have their own clerics (ie. Mesbah-Yazdi, Jannati, Khatami, etc…)
-
@Afshin wrote:
B) he is openly flirting with conservatives (both Larrijanis, and they belong to the fielth of the republis, such opputunists, with A.N atleast there is a ideology, how idiotic it is atleast one can respect that he fights for something, with larrijanis same as Karoubi told Ali, I hope you wont sell your self and your reliogion for a little more power like your brother)
-
Given that he has historically been allied with the conservatives himself, his flirting with conservatives is by no means surprising. He is first and foremost a pragmatist, and the Larrijanis aren’t much different. I don’t disagree there. As far as AN fighting for something is concerned, he’s fighting for himself just as the others are. The only difference is that he’s convinced himself (and for a little while at least, the SL as well) that he’s fighting for something greater. But his actions are even more self-serving than the Larrijanis because where they calculate the repercussions of their actions before engaging in them, he does not. He does what he wants when he feels like and screw anyone who disagrees with him. That to me is an even greater selfishness.
-
@Afshin wrote:
C) he has guns, lots of guns. He is no idiot he knows you can fight bullits with just slogans
-
This is a most interesting conjecture. I don’t put it past him to have a large numbers of firearms at his disposal. His financial empire is immense and he has dealt in weapons in the past (Iran-Contra). But does he have a large trained force at his disposal? I’ve seen no evidence of such. And if he doesn’t, then that would give the government reason to strike first and attempt to seize his assets first before he can bribe military officials with his vast cash reserves or “distribute” his wares to non-military folk. This is extremely dangerous territory for Hashemi to tread, but I suppose if anyone can navigate it, he can.
-
@Afshin wrote:
I advise you to read my analyses of the S.L arsenal of weapons and invite to tell me if I have missed any weapons or underestimate any, when you analyse things at a detailed level like that it becomes easier to understand, assume and even predict things.
-
I’m familiar with your analysis. Clearly the RG is willing to assist AN against the reformists. Our disagreement is primarily over whether or not they’re willing to act against the SL on AN’s behalf. You believe they are, while I haven’t seen any evidence that I find convincing enough to reach the same conclusion. A secondary argument between us regards the nature of the relationship between the SL and AN as the SL sees it. Where you see one poker player outplaying another, I see a father allowing his overly willful son to get away with far too much.
Samuel.
I don’t know whether you are even an Iranian. I am sure that the survey was not designed by Iranians and certainly not from within Iran.
As part of my job, I have been with all classes of people within in Iran, in various cities, towns and I find this survey absolutely unbelievable, and I am sure it has a major flaw, what I am not sure though.
BTW, Everytime I talk to my mother or my mother in law, as soon as I ask them about the unrest, or anything close to that subject, they hush me and say lets not talk about it on the phone. Such is the fear!
One thought: according to the poll, 52% of those called refused to take part. I wonder which group of people would be more nervous to talk on the phone, to a stranger from abroad!
@ Peter
Fair enough, I guess you have a diffrent view on what some actions mean then I do. You see a loving relationship between a father and a son. I see a struggle for power where billions of dollars are at stake.
The Iran I know is a Iran where preident can not ridicule the S.L for almost 10 days defying his direct orders and get away with it. its a country where the president can not try and stop the appointment of the head of judicary after the S.L him self has wanted him appointed. Its a country where the president can not fire the intelligence minister because he is a close ally of the S.L because the minister demanded the president obey the S.L. Nothing else just the fact that he demanded the S.L wishes be obeyed. The Iran I know is a country where the president cant get away with righting the S.L a letter with just 10 words in saying something in the line of “your wish has been met” without prasing hes greatness his holiness etc. A letter like that in Iran to S.L is unthinkable.
You see these things as minor issues, my expireance with Iran is very diffrent. I guess on these actions we have diffrent views on what they mean. Also on other moment i see you have complete diffrent take of what actions mean then I do. This is not Math so one can not write a formula and prove it. so it is just a matter of interpertation and logic but to reply to some of the claims u made which are not opinions but facts allow me to humbly reply;
——
S.L is not a old ignorant man who lacks info. Infact Elbaradei called him a very intelligent man, up to date on even the smallest details.
Furthermore saying if Hashemi had all the marjas he would have allready used them in teh assembly is kinda simplistic and naive. Besides Assembly of experts is something else then the Marjas.
Marjas are the grand ayatollahs, (Khatami, Janatti and Yazdi are not a Marja, the last two also very much with the guards not S.L) From all the Grand Ayatollahs NOT EVEN 1 exept for Hamedani acknowledges the illegitemate President A.N. and the one that did do that “Hamedani” has taken back his support and has claimed it was under pressure and that it was a mistake.
“One thought: according to the poll, 52% of those called refused to take part. I wonder which group of people would be more nervous to talk on the phone, to a stranger from abroad!”
Good point, AM!
52% refusal … looks as if the group of those finally participating was highly biased!
@ Afshin wrote:
Fair enough, I guess you have a diffrent view on what some actions mean then I do. You see a loving relationship between a father and a son. I see a struggle for power where billions of dollars are at stake.
-
I wouldn’t go so far as to call it loving, at least not anymore. I do think the relationship between AN and the Supreme Leader has fractured on a personal level. I just believe that the SL allowed his personal like for AN to cloud his judgment to the point where he threw all his eggs into AN’s basket before realizing what AN really was like. And now he’s reaping the consequences.
-
@ Afshin wrote:
The Iran I know is a Iran where preident can not ridicule the S.L for almost 10 days defying his direct orders and get away with it. its a country where the president can not try and stop the appointment of the head of judicary after the S.L him self has wanted him appointed. Its a country where the president can not fire the intelligence minister because he is a close ally of the S.L because the minister demanded the president obey the S.L. Nothing else just the fact that he demanded the S.L wishes be obeyed. The Iran I know is a country where the president cant get away with righting the S.L a letter with just 10 words in saying something in the line of “your wish has been met” without prasing hes greatness his holiness etc. A letter like that in Iran to S.L is unthinkable.
-
Khamenei has alienated the very pillars of the revolution that installed him into power as a “compromise candidate” after the death of Khomeini. His infallible status has always been more illusion than fact. He lacks either the charisma or the spiritual authority that Khomeini had and has historically avoided picking fights that he wasn’t certain he could win. Until recently he has always been careful to preserve his credibility and increase his authority. He has stacked important bodies with allies and cultivated the image of a wise, benevolent father who mediates between his squabbling children. While it might have been unthinkable for the average Iranian to have challenged his authority, I don’t think Rafsanjani or Moussavi ever considered it unthinkable, merely unwise, given the potential damage to the state that would result.
Things have changed however now that the destabilizing force that is AN has been added to the mix. AN has been raised to power by the SL’s own hand and AN is so certain that God is on his side that he doesn’t stop to consider the repercussions of his actions. By his continuing actions, he is showing to everyone with two eyes that the SL not only can make mistakes but that he also can be defied. You seem certain that it is AN’s intent to weaken the SL. At the moment I’m favoring the idea that AN just wants to have his way. AN does not strike me as the sort to consider the consequences of his actions on others. He’s more of an impulsive cowboy type. Introspection is no more his cup of tea than it was George W. Bush’s. So utilizing Occam’s razor, that seems the most likely explanation.
Nevertheless it isn’t the only possibility. So I’m not totally closing the door on your argument, I’m just unwilling to declare it the one true one as yet. My biggest issue with your argument that he is purposely attempting to weaken the SL is that I don’t see what that gains him. The SL is his single, most important defender. If he weakens the SL he weakens his own legitimacy.
-
@ Afshin wrote:
You see these things as minor issues, my expireance with Iran is very diffrent. I guess on these actions we have diffrent views on what they mean. Also on other moment i see you have complete diffrent take of what actions mean then I do. This is not Math so one can not write a formula and prove it. so it is just a matter of interpertation and logic but to reply to some of the claims u made which are not opinions but facts allow me to humbly reply;
-
Fair enough. Btw, it’s not that I see AN’s flouting of the SL’s will as a minor issue so much that I think the SL has created his own mess. The 1st generation revolutionary powers have lost respect for him while the 2nd generation powers are growing hesitant to intervene on his behalf against Ahmadinejad because he’s allowed AN to crush those who have without repercussions.
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@ Afshin wrote:
S.L is not a old ignorant man who lacks info. Infact Elbaradei called him a very intelligent man, up to date on even the smallest details.
-
I never said he was ignorant or unintelligent. But he most definitely is old, and men of his advanced age rarely have the same fire they did in their youth. The effects may be subtle, but they have a profound influence on decision-making.
-
@ Afshin wrote:
Furthermore saying if Hashemi had all the marjas he would have allready used them in teh assembly is kinda simplistic and naive. Besides Assembly of experts is something else then the Marjas.
-
You need to go back and reread your exact words and mine instead of twisting them. You referred to the “Marjas and the rest of the clerics”. The Assembly of Experts does contain clerics you see. And by “the rest of the clerics” I thought it safe to assume that you meant exactly what you said, all the clerics aside from the Marjas. And clerics run the Assembly of the Experts. It’s really pretty simple logic really. I don’t see why you find it so hard to follow. It’s probably because you’re too busy being condescending. It’s a pity too because I do enjoy your posts. But you don’t seem to take critique well.
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@ Afshin wrote:
Marjas are the grand ayatollahs, (Khatami, Janatti and Yazdi are not a Marja, the last two also very much with the guards not S.L)
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Please reread my words, I never said they were Marjas; I called them clerics. And you were the one who brought up clerics as well as Marjas in the same sentence. They are still Ayatollahs however, and the fact that they receive prominent pulpits, generous funding and favorable press coverage from the government doesn’t help matters any. As GA Montazeri pointed out in his letter (although he neglects to mention names), it is they who have given religious cover to the crimes committed by the government.
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@ Afshin wrote:
From all the Grand Ayatollahs NOT EVEN 1 exept for Hamedani acknowledges the illegitemate President A.N. and the one that did do that “Hamedani” has taken back his support and has claimed it was under pressure and that it
-
We agree on this at least.
@ Peter
I think you are not getting the message. Like I said we look at the things on complete diffrent levels. A.N for me is a nobody. This is not a fight of A.N this is a fight between the Guards (new stablishement) and the Clerics (the old stablishment). It is not a fight about Religion or even politics its first and foremost a fight for survival.
As a results you are looking at things as a complete diffrent angle. For me A.N is irrelevent. He is a nobody a puppet same as Mousavi is.
I dont care about individuals, I care about what is for me the bigger picture. For me this war is NOT about A.N or his belief that god is with him or not, it is NOT about Mousavi, it is NOT about the elections, heck it is NOT even about the S.L.
The reason whe we do not understand each other is that you actually see A.N as a player and I dont. I see him as a face/Symbol of a movement. Same as I see Mousavi as nothing more then a face. They are both as a person simply irrelevent. That is were we differ in opinion.
For me this is a War between the OLD vs the NEW. IT is a fight for survival. For me it is as simple as that. And in my logic that fits very well. The so called heros of today are the same players we have seen in the last 3 decades under whos rule we saw Killings, Political murders, crimes against humanity,etc. and I dont believe for a second that all of a sudden they all have seen the light and are fighting for Justice, Freedom of Speech, Political freedom, etc. They are pragmatic and know this is their only path to survival. Karoubi, Hashemi, Mousavi, Khatami, Marja’s and yes most clerics they all represent the old….
Again like I have said before you are looking at the situation from a complete diffrent angle and on a totally diffrent level. Which is fine we all look at things diffrently and that makes things intresting. It is not math so there is no formula as to what is right and what is wrong. I do however totally disagree with your view on things as i think you are missing the big picture and looking at puppets instead of the plot. I find it a very simplistic and a Naive look on things on micro level, thats not condescending its just my opinion. So appologies if I have hurt your feelings.
@ Paleene, A.M., Samuel
http://english.mowjcamp.com/article/id/34867
http://kamangir.net/2009/09/20/world-pubic-opinion-poll-ahmadinejad-is-legitimate/
A different light on the WPO ’s poll on ‘How d’you like to have your A.N. ?’
It seems odd enough this survey’s and this WPO… worth to investigate…
@Afshin
Yes we do look at things differently. Since we’re being blunt, I feel you’re guilty of oversimplification. I suppose people like to divide things into two groups or teams in order to make them easier to understand, and sometimes things work out that way. But all too often it leads to mistaken prognostications based on poorly supported assumptions.
The Iranian clerical establishment is by no means the united monolithic group that you are presenting it to be. The OLD vs NEW distinction may play well on news channels designed for people with short attention spans, and its useful on a more elementary level to give people a very basic idea of what’s going on, but it’s also an oversimplification in my view that can lead to some incorrect conclusions if used carelessly. It’s not just about the younger generation wanting to push the older generation out of power. It can also be looked as a significant chunk of the older generation along with a significant chunk of the younger generation that have fallen out of power wanting to push out the small slice of the younger generation that has been raised to power by the single most influential individual member of the older generation. But that’s too complicated, and I haven’t even pointed out the previously marginalized members of the 1st generation who have gained some measure of power by providing cover for those 2nd generationers attempting to push out the previously dominant 1st generation. People prefer things simplified to the point of inaccuracy.
Well at least we understand each other better now, including how little we think of each other’s views. And there’s no need to worry about my feelings. I do try to be diplomatic in the beginning, but when the other side prefers to be more blunt, I don’t have any problem with matching their level of tact.
@ Peter
Fair Enough Peter, you have your ideas and views on things and thats good. I just wished that the part about the News channels was true.
“The OLD vs NEW distinction may play well on news channels designed for people with short attention spans”
I my self have not seen one channel refer to this as a fight between the clerical regime and the Guards. (except EA refering to it at times in the 4 sided chess game” where they include the S.L and the Reformist as well.) so if you have sources in the news that claim this, it would make me very happy. Please share these great News sources. It would make my day if finally more News sites understand the situation in Iran and report about the struggle between the clerics and the guards.
Allthough in my humble opinion you completely have missed the plot and do not understand what is going onj in the country and have missed the events that are leading to this war between the Clerics and the Guards, for me its enough that you feel so passionate about the cause. If more people felt so passionate about what is happening in Iran it would help the country more. Sorry again if I hurt your ego.
@yseut
Thank you for giving the links!
You’re probably right; WPO not worth further consideration.
@ Peter
Also Videos would be good. In the past I did see a short video on CNN where a former CIA agent referred to the situation as such (Literally said a fight between Guards and the Clerics if i remember correctly) but have not come across alot lately. So any videos or even articles of analysts refering to this as a fight between the Guards vs the Clerics would be most welcome. Specially if from the last weeks.
To Afshin and Peter,
I have to agree with Afshin’s analysis. My friend, who’s family, is still in Iran has said the same thing. She futher elaborated stating “at times its not old vs new but the old who adopted the new once they saw the opportunity. Many Iranians realize this but are so desperate for change they will latch onto it.” It is my belief your finding a “gorbachev” like effect with the reform leaders. I believe Karroubi and Moussavi have been deeply influenced by this and their open defiance shows this. I am not as convinced Khatami and Rafsinjani are doing this entirely for the people. I think part of their motivation is to settle old scores and grap power. To further support Afshin’s stance you have to look no further that the clerics in Qom who threw in with the reform. I believe many clerics are troubled by the militarization of the regime and see it as a conflict of interests. They firmly believe this has been in direct opposition to the messege of the Islamic Revolution. They believe the people should have a voice and the regime obviously trully doesn’t.
I am not totally sold on the guards angle but the militarization seems to support this. The question is wether the guards are using Ahamadinejad and SL or is it the other way around. The differences Ahamadinejad has with some of the conservatives supports this. There is no doubt the guards were heavily in the election and their statements afterward cleary showed they were. Because the guards tend to work behind the scenes more I don’t think we will trully know unitl more time passes.
@Afshin
During the elections the news channels broke things down as young vs. old with young being the reformists. You’ve simply flipped it around . It all sounds nice, and does have a kernel of truth to it, but it also isn’t entirely accurate.
@Bill
Exactly my point, whatever pattern of old vs. new you first see, upon closer examination there are old and new on both sides. And like you “I am not totally sold on the guards angle”. I know you’ve said that you agree with Afshin, but nothing you’ve said has contradicted my own position. And it’s interesting that you take Moussavi into consideration. Afshin does not. In fact he’s stated that Moussavi like AN is just a “nobody puppet” and not worth taking into account . So that would make you “naive” like me in his eyes for taking individuals into consideration. :P
@ Peter,
With your previous note you had me happy for a sec, thinking there was some intresting news out there you were gonna share with us. To analyse the situation Young vs Old is worse then Naive and Simple its just being lazy or blind. Unfortunatly some Media are like that.
From your last few posts it seems that I have realy struck a very sensetive nerve so again, it was not my intention to belittle you or to hurt your feelings, its just that I think your views on the Iran situation is completly missing the plot. I’ve explained why I think that and have called your views Naieve and Simplystic. Its just an opinion you really should not be so bothered by it. Me and Samuel disagree on almost everything regarding Iran, its just someones look on things. Don’t let it get to you.
@Afshin
I think we can both agree that it would be wonderful if the situation in Iran received greater and more insightful coverage in the American news media. The LA Times doesn’t seem to be half bad,
@ Peter
Right now I settle for just Coverage. Even if wrong. Sometimes they dont even report on it.
I read another stupid article just now which unfortunatly is from a european Country and not in English, it brings tears to your eyes. They started with stealing the Roger Cohen piece and actually ended up with their own analyses saying if there was a time to bomb iran it would be now…. !!!!! How blind can one be ?
@Afshin
I think we can both agree that it would be wonderful if the situation in Iran received greater and more insightful coverage in the American news media. The LA Times doesn’t seem to be half bad, but the other papers leave a lot to be desired and the cable channels are terrible.
Rather then continuing to go around on what we think of each other’s approach, I’m going to get back to something a bit more specific. You’ve told me that individuals don’t matter. But yet you spend considerable time analysing Rafsanjani who happens to be an individual. Isn’t that a contradiction?