The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech
NEW Iran: Khamenei Scrambles for Position
The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech

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2010 GMT: The buzz over Imam Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, continues. After his appearance yesterday at the Supreme Leader's speech (analysed in a separate entry), the Islamic Republic News Agency has attacked him for his continued visits to the families of detainees (see 1510 GMT).

1535 GMT: Revelation of the Day. Rooz Online claims that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has ordered the Ministry of Health not to release the medical records of recently injured protesters, thus covering up the cause of their wounds.

Afternoon Update (1510 GMT): A New Act in the Crackdown? State TV has again put high-profile reformist detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on air in a two-day roundtable to explain and analyse their transgressions, no doubt re-drawing the picture of foreign-directed attempts at regime change. The trio were featured in a roundtable last month after the first wave of Tehran trials.

Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Imam Khomeini, has continued his visits to the families of post-election detainees. The visits have been seen as symbolic of Khomeini's challenge to the current Government and have resumed a day after his appearance at the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr address.

Parliament Qualms? Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar has again raised the prospect of a legislative clash with the President after the cease-fire that led to approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. Bahonar has expressed qualms about the President's power, saying he is worried that Ahmadinejad will start changing Ministers and declaring that Parliament will force Government to abide by laws.


0820 GMT: A quiet morning, as all sides continue to manoeuvre for position. The major political story is the Supreme Leader's attempt in his speech yesterday both to stabilise his position and to push for a settlement including both the President and Hashemi Rafsanjani. We've analysed that in a separate entry, "Khamenei Scrambles for Position".

Unfortunately, this story is now beyond the comprehension of most "mainstream" media outside Iran. So, instead of considering the internal dynamics, they will be distracted this week by President Ahmadinejad's visit to New York. They will not pick up on the most important aspect of this trip, namely that Ahmadinejad will use it to show Iranian people that he is in control and that protest against him jeopardises Iran's prominent position in world affairs. (Not many people, even veteran Iran-watchers, have figured out that this is why he gave the "exclusive" interview to NBC's Anne Curry.) They will not realise that the importance of Iran's nuclear programme is more in the prestige that it gives the President, especially as he can show defiance against "Western" and Israeli attempts to curb it, than in any imminent military use.

The headlines on the Supreme Leader's speech this morning give the game away: It's Not about Iranians, It's About US. CNN blares, "Iranian leader decries Obama's missile defense plan". The BBC adds, "Khamenei denies US nuclear claims". NBC, having tried to dine out on the interview with President Ahmadinejad, falls back into the superficial with "Iran's leader says U.S. nuke accusations wrong". The New York Times avoids the pitfall by saying nothing at all. (The honourable exception is The Los Angeles Times, which recognises,"Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei Says Opposition Protests Failed".)

Comments

[Jashar]

I watched last night BBC farsi's call-in show ("Nobate Shoma") . A religious woman called who seemed toknew what she was talkin about (I think she said that she went to a Quran school in one of Qom's religious centers). She said that calling the end of ramadan is and was always the duty of the supreme leader (she is a supporter of grand ayatollah Saanei by the way). She explained that even during the Shah reign it was the bureau of the shah which officially anounced Eide Fetr, because there were always conflicts between different Marjas about the end of Ramadan, so it was always the ruler of the country who announced it. The woman also said that this was always accepted by all the Marjas. They always have send a representant to the supreme leaders bureau who then made an agreement with the leader or his bureau and then the Marjas also annouced the end of Ramadan, after the leader confirmed it. She added that its differenent this year because of the tension between the marjas and the leadership. Her analysis was that Rafsanjanis and Khomeini's attendance at todays "Fitr party" (or whatever it is called) had nothing to do with a deal between the leader and Rafsanjani. She said that Rafsanjani and Khomeini had to go there despite the tension between the Khamenei, cause they are religious men and know that announcing Eide Fitr is the leadership's job.

It kinda makes sense to me, eventhough i canT see why Rafsanjani, Khomeini or Nateghnoori HAD to be there! What do you think?

[Amy]

I do enjoy the irony of SL joining US neocons & Republicans in denouncing President Obama's changes in the Bush-era missile defense plans

[whereismyvote]

The announcement by so many Marjah of a different day for the end of Ramezan indicates that there is a deeper conflict than what we see. It is not a duality of Rafsanjani clan vs the Khamanei clan with a battle royal at the expediancy council pending, but rather many players

1) Hard line anti Khamanei force of clerics (Montazari is the front man) who are completely critical of all aspects of the regime and in a very shaky alliance with the reformers / rafsanjani clan. The hatred of Montazari against Rafsanjani is deep and post crisis the alliance will be broken
2) Pragmatic anti Khamanei / AN alliance forces, lead by Rafsanjani and full of other clerics who ultimately want a leadership council and a roleback of the powers of the Pasdaran, but no other major change
3) The SL supporters who want to keep the status quo and him as leader supreme, they are in an alliance with the guards to achieve this, but its an alliance showing strain and signs of cracks at times.
4) The Pasdaran / Basiji forces who want to increase the power of their forcesand their control, and ultimately even replace the SL with their own man (Meshbah Yazdi or other) who is more a symbolic leader
5) Reformist clerics / members of the assembly of experts who want the reform and populist agenda pushed forward.

These forces and their presence in the main stream has been well documented and observed by many commentators in this forum. The same forces and actors exist in the assembly of experts and the speech and moves of the last 2 days has been a play for the assembly members. I suspect that Rafsanjani holds now a majority behind his alliance, however he is not probably yet holding a philabuster majority and also is worried of the Guards response with violence / terror against the assembly members. As such you see some jostling and play for power.

There is no deal just a carrot dangled by the SL for the Rafsanjani and Nateg Nouri clan to back down while all the while the guards will hit the opposition, Rafsanjani and everyone else with the stick.

The assembly meeting may fire a small shot at the bow of the SL but not a knockout punch this week. It seems the assembly is playing wait and see for now.

[Afshin]

@ Jashar

I did my bit yesterday. I personally think that they really need to be there.

1) If they Boycot everything they put them selves outside the system and cut them selves from the establishment, also reducing their own power and importance.

2) This way they can not be considered anti-revolution

3) It is easier for others to stand beside a man of the establishment then a man outside it. If they become the opposition they make that harder.

4) By not becoming one with the Reformist they play the role what S.L should be playing, staying in the middle. The balancing factor, the Protector of Imam's legacy, the ones to save the revolution etc.

[Peter]

@whereismyvote

I'm getting the vibe that the SL's supporters increasingly feel that there will be no place for them at the table of power either in the future. They will be pushed out just as the reformists have been. Many of them are clearly itching to take preventative action, but the SL restrains them and forces them to stay in the alliance.

You're suspicion regarding Rafsanjani's possession of majority support within the Assembly is a most interesting one. But if they deliberate too long before applying a "knockout punch", the regime will likely start applying "pressure" to individual members or even take more drastic types of action to whittle down the majority into a minority.

[Amy]

re. Assembly of Experts
If the Assembly of Experts did act, how might they go about it? Peter talks about the hazards of proceeding slowly. On the other hand, as Afshin & whereismyvote point out, the Pasdaran have been acting with at sense of urgency in recent weeks. Might abrupt action by the A of E trigger a precipitate response from the Pasdaran? What is the best approach?

BTW, whereismyvote, I love your filibuster-proof majority analogy... a cross-cultural pain-in-the butt

[Amy]

What is the Pasdaran leadership model? Is it more a one man dictatorial style or is it a group effort with a front man-- a Pakistan-style oligarchy? (I'm not saying Iran or the Pasdaran are comparable to Pakistan-- just talking about the structure of command)

[IRG silences Ministry of Healt]

[...] silences Ministry of Health From Enduring America today (The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions | Enduring America) "Revelation of the Day. Rooz Online claims that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has [...]

[Yseut]

@ Amy A good feature-link put in yesterday's page It's all about
"IRGC mode d'emploi" and status etc. -helpful and clear cut i think

http://www.payvand.com/news/09/sep/1199.html

[Amy]

Thanks Yseut,
Sorry to repeat if the subject was just discussed. I haven't had so much free time the last few days.

[Yseut]

Amy : then you have a bit to catch up , between Scott's
pages and our experts observers-analysts in the Responses ;- )
-but it's all so well explained and debated, that it's easy to do
Now the next political step-event seems to be tomorrow,
Assembly of Experts .... (to be continued)

[Afshin]

@Amy

I think it is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay to soon for the assembly to do anything, if the shark is the shark, first the things will get much worse, Hashemi will at times even SEEM (FOR THE SAKE OF SHOW) to do his best to keep things together but things will escalate so much that as the head of the Assemby he is asked to step in and and only then use this card to replace the leader probably not even initiated by him.

IF it ever came to that I would assume a scenario like that. Right now it is way to soon to do anything on that level.

[Amy]

Yseut
It sounds like the coup actually happened by 2004/05, but this year's election felt more like a coup because the people had begun to feel a hope that wasn't present in the previous election. The article shows how the timing of the war with Iraq (Iran/Iraq) made it inevitable that the Pasdaran would be a major player in the economy.

I've worried for Mehdi Karoubi's safety, but according to that article, he's been a thorn in the side for years.

[Jashar]

Afshin jaan, thank your very much for your exellent explanation!

[WitteKr]

@Afshin
HELP?
I always find the observations of tweeter MikVerbrugge interesting. Especially his notes on conversations with 'insider' or 'source'. But this time I have a hard time understanding what he's trying to say. I'm referring to his latest entries on:
http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/192762473/insider-opinion-back-to-square-one and
http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/193302447/source-on-the-truce
Could you explain what he's saying? Thanks!

[kevina]

@WitteKr

I'm not Afshin, but I'll try. In essence, MV's "sources" have told him of a truce between Hashemi (and like-minded folks- Nateq-Nouri) and Khamenei. The SL will, slightly, back off the reformists (esp. Khatami*), give them, over time, more voice and a LITTLE power. In return, the detainee issues (esp. Karroubi's crusade) are quashed, the Assembly meeting is a non-event**, and "Traditional conservatives" retake power from IRGC/Basij.

He goes on to claim that Hashemi in particular was not pleased by all of SL's sermon, and being a cleric himself, does not want to go against a unified Marja (Grand Ayatollahs). At the same time, the "sources" say, he fears a public uprising spiraling out of control into overthrow.

*Really? Why does Raffers care about Khatami's standing? His daughter, shortly after June 12, blamed Khatami for Reform's failings.

**It was going to be otherwise?

See, I enjoy reading MV, but I think his sources sometimes read too much into things.

[Bill Davit]

Afshin,

If you have not already this article from rooz about your coup theory I would encourage you to look it up:

http://www.roozonline.com/english/opinion/opinion-article/article/2009/september/11//on-the-eve-of-the-second-coup.html

After reading this and a few other related articles I am inclined to believe your correct about a military coup pending. It looks like the SL may actually be fighting a two front war internally. One side the reformers and the others the hardliners like Prof Crocodile. The Laranjanis dispute with Ahamadinejad supports this along with some of the reconciliatory comments towards the reform movement by the SL. Should be interesting to see how this unfolds! Please keep your excellent analysis coming!

Thx
bill

[Amy]

Hi Bill,
It's not the AN/Pasdaran coup that is unique to Afshin's analysis. The coup has been discussed ever since the election, and the word has been used openly by Mir Hossein Mousavi & Mehdi Karoubi for a couple of months now. Some think that a slow-rolling Pasdaran coup has been in process since 2004 or even longer (see link at Yseut' comment #9).

The coup is not complete, but is perilously close. The advance which the coup leaders made during the election has made it hard for them to maintain the "Republic" veneer, much to their dismay.

The fascinating part of Afshin's and whereismyvote's analyses (which aren't the same, but have similarities) is how they see the players and the dynamics of the horrific game.

[WitteKr]

@kevina
Thanks for puting things into perspective - or at least translating it into more understandable English... Still, his comments (again - the 22nd) on http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/ are intriguing!