Monday
Oct122009
The Latest from Iran (12 October): Green Shoots?
Monday, October 12, 2009 at 20:01
NEW Iran: The Politics of the Death Sentences
NEW Iran: English Text of Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (10 October)
Iran: The Washington-Tehran Deal on Enriched Uranium?
Iran: So Who Controls the Islamic Republic?
The Latest from Iran (11 October): The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting
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Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
1930 GMT: The reformist Assembly of Combatant Clergymen, paralleling the statements of Mohammad Khatami, have written an open letter to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, warning about the consequences of the current lawlessness and stressing that the judiciary should be held accountable for crimes, violation of law, and injustices. Among these violations are detentions in solitary confinement and uncertainties about charges:
1910 GMT: A Very Gentle Day. Gentle by post-election standards, with the big domestic news Parliament's approval of Government cuts in food and gasoline/petrol subsidies. Reuters is only now catching up with Saturday's Karroubi-Mousavi meeting, loosely translating Mousavi as claiming, "It seems some people are trying to take us back to the Inquisition era."
1340 GMT: Posturing. After the flurry of political movement over the weekend, relatively quiet today. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is making an appearance in Shiraz, hoping that he doesn't face too many demonstrators. Mohammad Khatami is celebrating his 66th birthday with friends.
Meanwhile, the Iranian Government continues the ritual tough-talk two-step with its US partner, covering up the private movement towards accommodation. Responding to Hillary Clinton's finger-shaking that "the world will not wait indefinitely" for Iranian movement on the nuclear issue, the spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry blustered on Monday, "So far, western powers have achieved nothing by using the language of threats and sanctions against Iran. The West, itself, knows that this language is useless. We have always announced that we advocate negotiations."
0905 GMT: We've posted a special analysis of the politics surrounding the four death sentences handed out by the regime in recent days. And we've updated our feature on "Who Controls Iran?".
0900 GMT: A new poster (left) for the 4 November demonstrations is circulating. It repeats the slogans of previous flyers and adds, "United, we will be on the streets.
Join our million-strong green crowd on 13 Aban [4 November] in support of freedom in Iran. Stay in your car in silence in the areas where people are sitting in."
0720 GMT: Iranian state media is trying to keep President Ahmadinejad firmly in the international arena rather than within internal difficulties. The President's latest statement was the reassurance that Iran, not "the West", was setting the agenda for the next round of talks on Tehran's nuclear programme:
Meanwhile the Iranian military is putting out its own tough reassurances, with a Brigadier General asserting, “Updating the defense systems is moving on an excellent progressive trend at present and (Iran’s systems) can compete with hi-tech systems of the world. Now we are in our best conditions of defensive preparedness."
0600 GMT: Are we seeing an opposition revival? Consider that in the last 48 hours:
*Mohammad Khatami has made a high-profile appearance in Yazd Province and issued one of the strongest criticisms of the Government to date: “Be sure that people will never back down."
*Mehdi Karroubi, in a letter sent in his son's name, used the call for fairness from Iranian state broadcasting to attack the Iran judiciary's handling of his claims of detainee abuses;
*Karroubi has also re-established his web presence with the re-launch of Tagheer;
*Mir Hossein Mousavi, after seeing senior clerics on Thursday about his "social network", had a lengthy meeting on Saturday with Karroubi. In the summary of the meeting, both in Farsi and in English, their emphasis is on a renewal of pressure against the Government over electoral fraud, "legal" injustices, and abuses.
Add to this the re-appearance of Mousavi chief advisor Alireza Beheshti after the attempt to silence him through detention. Yesterday he issued a sharp response to Ahmad Khamati's Friday Prayer, deriding the cleric's claims of a US-sponsored "velvet revolution" (given that the Iranian Government had just sat across from US delegates at the Geneva talks) and calling for "rights" and "respect" for all Iranians.
NEW Iran: English Text of Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (10 October)
Iran: The Washington-Tehran Deal on Enriched Uranium?
Iran: So Who Controls the Islamic Republic?
The Latest from Iran (11 October): The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
1930 GMT: The reformist Assembly of Combatant Clergymen, paralleling the statements of Mohammad Khatami, have written an open letter to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, warning about the consequences of the current lawlessness and stressing that the judiciary should be held accountable for crimes, violation of law, and injustices. Among these violations are detentions in solitary confinement and uncertainties about charges:Our fear and concern is because of the reduction or even destruction of the peoples trust and faith in the judiciary system. How can it be that, with a simple gesture, a newspaper is closed down and thus the artery of information of a party or group is blocked instantly; however, hundreds of newspapers and [Government] media with different kinds of accusations and convictions in their evidence become richer in their unbounded cheek and still the judiciary system is unable to dispense justice and only casts some general conclusions about the reproach of lies?
1910 GMT: A Very Gentle Day. Gentle by post-election standards, with the big domestic news Parliament's approval of Government cuts in food and gasoline/petrol subsidies. Reuters is only now catching up with Saturday's Karroubi-Mousavi meeting, loosely translating Mousavi as claiming, "It seems some people are trying to take us back to the Inquisition era."
1340 GMT: Posturing. After the flurry of political movement over the weekend, relatively quiet today. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is making an appearance in Shiraz, hoping that he doesn't face too many demonstrators. Mohammad Khatami is celebrating his 66th birthday with friends.
Meanwhile, the Iranian Government continues the ritual tough-talk two-step with its US partner, covering up the private movement towards accommodation. Responding to Hillary Clinton's finger-shaking that "the world will not wait indefinitely" for Iranian movement on the nuclear issue, the spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry blustered on Monday, "So far, western powers have achieved nothing by using the language of threats and sanctions against Iran. The West, itself, knows that this language is useless. We have always announced that we advocate negotiations."
0905 GMT: We've posted a special analysis of the politics surrounding the four death sentences handed out by the regime in recent days. And we've updated our feature on "Who Controls Iran?".
0900 GMT: A new poster (left) for the 4 November demonstrations is circulating. It repeats the slogans of previous flyers and adds, "United, we will be on the streets.
Join our million-strong green crowd on 13 Aban [4 November] in support of freedom in Iran. Stay in your car in silence in the areas where people are sitting in."
0720 GMT: Iranian state media is trying to keep President Ahmadinejad firmly in the international arena rather than within internal difficulties. The President's latest statement was the reassurance that Iran, not "the West", was setting the agenda for the next round of talks on Tehran's nuclear programme:
We have already agreed to discuss Iran's latest package of proposals. I don't think there will be any problems in the next round of talks but if someone wants to cause problems, they will fail. And if they succeed to do so, they will harm themselves.
Meanwhile the Iranian military is putting out its own tough reassurances, with a Brigadier General asserting, “Updating the defense systems is moving on an excellent progressive trend at present and (Iran’s systems) can compete with hi-tech systems of the world. Now we are in our best conditions of defensive preparedness."
0600 GMT: Are we seeing an opposition revival? Consider that in the last 48 hours:
*Mohammad Khatami has made a high-profile appearance in Yazd Province and issued one of the strongest criticisms of the Government to date: “Be sure that people will never back down."
*Mehdi Karroubi, in a letter sent in his son's name, used the call for fairness from Iranian state broadcasting to attack the Iran judiciary's handling of his claims of detainee abuses;
*Karroubi has also re-established his web presence with the re-launch of Tagheer;
*Mir Hossein Mousavi, after seeing senior clerics on Thursday about his "social network", had a lengthy meeting on Saturday with Karroubi. In the summary of the meeting, both in Farsi and in English, their emphasis is on a renewal of pressure against the Government over electoral fraud, "legal" injustices, and abuses.
Add to this the re-appearance of Mousavi chief advisor Alireza Beheshti after the attempt to silence him through detention. Yesterday he issued a sharp response to Ahmad Khamati's Friday Prayer, deriding the cleric's claims of a US-sponsored "velvet revolution" (given that the Iranian Government had just sat across from US delegates at the Geneva talks) and calling for "rights" and "respect" for all Iranians.
Reader Comments (9)
In the end this is all running around in circles untill they start with the strikes. Once the OIL sector strikes its all over...
I absolutely agree with Afshin. This is what many people say from day 1 of post election opposition movement protests!
Here is a translation of Alireza Beheshti's full response:
http://khordaad88.com/?p=699
Oh, and one more thing. This letter was written by Alireza Beheshti Shirazi. Not to be mistaken with Alireza Beheshti (Ayatollah Beheshti's son).
IRI's economy
In the Financial Times today
"Iran parliament backs move to slash subsidies"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a9d884ba-b6c5-11de 8a28-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1
It looks like more people will have trouble to make end's meet soon... The 'tweet
signalling the article commented : 'let's see if they commit suicide ' (i!)
What do you think Scott, persian advisors and alt. ?
In 1978 and 1979, as I recall, level of people desperation and more importantly level of tyranny and violence by the authorities, injustice and lawlessness were not as high as they are today and yet oil segment and Bazaar (merchants) went on strike. What is different in 2009? Why people are taking it so much?
I am thousands of miles away and my daily life is not affected by Iran regime, yet I have had it. I am sure if I was there I would not put up with this nonsense. How come people in Iran put up with it? Have they become numb to the situation after 30 years? Why is it that they do not go on strike if that, as some of you suggest, is going to do the trick?? What are they waiting for, mass execution or mass starvation?
I do not know if this blog has readers who live in Iran right now and if it does it would be great to hear their answers.
@ Megan
While I'm not in Iran, all my family is (I'm the only one out of the country). I believe the reluctance to strike is because many of the Bazaari (& others) remember the revolution and when you have revolution you don't have anything (money etc) you have to start from scratch. While the Bazaari would love for things to change they don't want to lose it all again. Think about it, if you owned a business, that was making some money for you to live, would you be jumping at the chance to strike (lose money for not working & possible lose your business/job if the regime changes). However I do believe they will go on strike eventually, it is almost time, but it is the last option. I believe they are waiting to see if Rafs Unity plan will come to anything before they strike - but that is only my opinion. I do know that there are many people - my family included - that really want a change in regime, but with little impact on their current lives. Once the strikes start it will be all over for the regime.
@Anna
Thank you for sharing your thoughts and helping me to make sense of it all. I latched on to your statement that said many people including your family did not want regime change. I think that may be it. I think a lot of people are scared of unknown.
I have, for some time, come to the conclusion that Iranians who are forty years and younger are shell-shocked and or suffer from Stockholm Syndrome. Many Iranians we see in street protests were young children during the 8-year war. As a young child they learned to run and hide in a safe place in order to survive the incoming missiles. They grew up learning to have some normalcy in their lives they had to submit to government strict rules. As result, they believed forgoing personal freedom was a matter of survival. They hoped and still hope one day things will get better. The reality is that with this regime things will not get better in Iran. At best, it will be a different shade of tyranny even if the election had gone as people hoped for. Mousavi, in my opinion, is the taller, the older, and less volatile version of Ahmadinejad. This thirty-year system of government is like cancer. Just like cancer it will not get better on its own. To have some chance of surviving cancer, you need aggressive and radical treatments. This is the reality people have to accept and take the right measures to uproot this regime if not for their own sake; they need to do that for the sake of their children and grand children.
I also think Iranians may be suffering from Stockholm Syndrome, identifying with their captors. You see young and old still chant Allah o Akbar- the same chant regime thugs use when they beat, torture, and execute innocent people. Young and old are protesting and chant “Marg bar Dictator” yet they are dressed (especially women) as dictator wants them to dress. How odd is that?
I hope my analysis is wrong. And I hope Iranians one day very soon realize they need to navigate the unknown waters because where they are now is shark infested water. They need a wise, capable and charismatic leader to lead them through troubled water; someone who has not swam with the sharks. I do not know if there are any.
I am not the praying type Anna, but I have started praying because I feel there is nothing else I can do. May God protect your family.
@Megan and Anna: I can see why people in Iran hesitate to totally change their regime. Violence is the first reason. In all the chaos following the election, only hundreds of people have died, even if the highest numbers are believed. That's a handful compared to the potential death toll if real fighting breaks out.