The Latest from Iran (31 October): Karroubi to March on 13 Aban

NEW Iran: Mousavi Statement for 13 Aban Demonstrations (31 October)
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Video: Tonight “Allahu Akhbars” at Sharif University
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Latest from Iran (30 October): Now to the Real Contest

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2040 GMT: It's Official: Bring It On. First we had Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement, now we have Mehdi Karroubi's signal that he will be joining the crowds on 13 Aban. The cleric has promised further details soon but indicated that he will be joining students at the "Polytechnic" in Tehran. This may refer to Amir Kabir University, although earlier chatter said Karroubi would be going to Sharif University.

2020 GMT: Handing Down "Justice". The deputy head of Iran's judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, has announced that sentences for 50 post-election detainees have been issued. Some detainees are appealing the verdicts, and Raeesi urged colleagues to speed up the processing of the cases.

For Raeesi, it is clear, has made his mind: “Those who have proposed the elections were fraudulent and created doubt in the public’s mind have undoubtedly committed a grave crime and naturally will have to answer for the crime they have committed.”

1930 GMT: We've now posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement welcoming the 13 Aban (4 November) demonstrations (see 1200 and 1215 GMT). The declaration is a spirited presentation of and for the Green movement in the context of the history of 13 Aban, Ayatollah Khomeini, and the Islamic Revolution.

And it is also a spirited criticism of Ahmadinejad's negotiations over the nuclear programme with the United States and other countries, accusing the President of selling out Iran for the sake of his personal position: "Today, it appears that a large proportion of the product of Iran’s nuclear program, which has caused much chaos and brought a number of sanctions for the people, must be handed to another country, in hopes that they will be kind enough to offer us some fuel later on.

1740 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has met with members of the Central Council of the Islamic Association of Tehran University and Tehran Medical Sciences. Khatami warned that surveillance into personal affairs of people is not allowed even in the cases of those who do not believe in the Establishment or in God, as long as they do not use weapons.

The former President emphasised that the Green movement is against violence but in the opposite side there are some who only think and act violently. Khatami said it must first be accepted that there is a crisis in the society, and then one can find the solution; if there are mistakes in analysing the current situation, there will be more problems in the future.

1730 GMT: Morteza Alviri, Mehdi Karroubi’s representative in the joint Karroubi-Mousavi committee formed to investigate prison abuse cases, was released from prison on bail this afternoon.

There is confusion, however, over Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution who has been illegally detained since June. It was reported that Nabavi had been released, but this has been denied by his family, who say he is still in hospital after surgery last month.

1405 GMT: Alef News carries a purported interview with mathematics student Mahmoud Vahidnia, who challenged the Supreme Leader with a series of questions on Wednesday. Vahidnia denies that he was arrested after the incident.

1340 GMT: The reformist cleric Abdollah Nouri has visited Mohammad Ghoochani, the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper released yesterday after more than four months in detention.

1215 GMT: How Not to Report Breaking News. Reuters summarises the Mousavi statement, "Opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi appeared to urge his supporters on Saturday to take part in rallies next week marking the 30th anniversary of the U.S. embassy takeover by radical students in Tehran."

Appears? Yes, in the same way that the Pope "appears" to be Catholic and many students "appear" to be concerned about the Iranian Government. And nice touch by the news service to frame 13 Aban as just an extension of "radical students" who took Americans hostage in 1979.

1200 GMT: We return from a break to find that Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a statement, his 14th of the post-election crisis, ahead of the 13 Aban (4 November) demonstrations. The statement is a rallying call, praising students for their determination and encouraging them to remain strong for "the Greenest day of the year". Mousavi stands against extremism, as he declares that the "Green path" is the "rational way".

0935 GMT: Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad is not going to be deflected from his strategy of continued engagement as a sign of the acceptance of the legitimacy of Iran's Government. He told veterans today that "the best way forward" for the "West" was "co-operation with the Iranian nation".

0855 GMT: A gentle morning in Iranian politics, so we've been working on other stories from the role of money in US politics to the latest on Israel-Turkey relations as well as an item on Iran's condemnation of the US, Canada, and Europe for human rights violations.

There are increasingly interesting developments on Iran's nuclear talks and US-Iranian relations, however.

Our suspicion about Ali Larijani's renewed attack on Washington for its supposed involvement in the recent suicide bombing in southeastern Iran --- this is a tactic to challenge the Ahmadinejad Government's continued discussions with the US on nuclear issues --- is reinforced by  statements from other high-profile conservative and principlist legislators. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Committee, repeated his objection from earlier this week:

We are completely opposed to the proposal on delivering uranium with 3.5 percent enrichment in exchange for uranium with 20 percent enrichment. There is no guarantee they would give us fuel with 20 percent enrichment in exchange for our delivered LEU. We have deep mistrust in relation to the Westerners.

Kazem Jalali, another key member of the committee, declared, "The demand that we should deliver all enriched nuclear material to other countries so that they would supply Tehran's fuel needs is completely out of the question."

Andrew Lee Butters of Time magazine has a good overview article picking up on the "storm of criticism from across the Iranian political spectrum", highlighting the remarks of Mir Hossein Mousavi as well as the Government's Parliamentary challengers:

Conservatives had accused moderates of treason over previous attempts to reach a nuclear agreement with the West; now the country's embattled opposition leaders are getting their own back, perhaps fearful that rapprochement between the West and Ahmadinejad would reinforce the regime that has cracked down hard since the election.

UPDATED Latest Iran Video: Tonight's "Allahu Akhbars" at Sharif University (30-31 Oct)

The Latest from Iran (31 October): Parliament’s Challenge to Ahmadinejad
Latest from Iran (30 October): Now to the Real Contest

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31 October

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sx_fRrtvYC0[/youtube]

30 October

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z05fROoaUBU[/youtube]

Iran: Full Translation of Mousavi Statement for 13 Aban Demonstrations (31 October)

The Latest from Iran (31 October): Parliament’s Challenge to Ahmadinejad

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Adapted from the Facebook site associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi:

In the Name of God the Compassionate, the Merciful,

In our modern history, the 13th of Aban (4th of November) is reminiscent of three events. The first was when Imam Khomeini was exiled, and the movement went into a 13-year recession. After being able to silence the movement by sending the Imam into exile, the Shah’s regime marveled at why such a thing was not done sooner. There was one uprising and one Imam, and when he was far from it, there was nothing left of its spirit. Was the Imam truly alone in the movement he had begun? Never. It is never such that one person can create change in society. He had many followers, but they were not like the friends that would surround him years later, when he said: “our leader is that 13-year-old child".



The second 13th of Aban is the day of 13-year-old leaders --- students who had gathered at the University of Tehran for a protest and faced a most violent death. It was the regime’s experience with the events of the 40s [the 1960s] that caused such a bloody reaction. They [the regime] thought that if they act as determined as before, they will once again achieve the same incredible results. But the base of society had changed. The monarchist establishment was no longer facing one Imam. This time, people had surrounded the Imam, who may not have known him as well as their fathers did or who had not heard his speeches, had as much spirit and strength in their hearts as the Imam himself. Unlike their fathers, they did not need to be repressed or to see as much evil to join this movement

Much has been said about the third 13th of Aban. It is unlikely that anything of that event has remained unsaid, including the fact that in that event, the Imam followed the Muslim students. On the surface, the students called themselves the followers of the Imam, but in reality, it was the Imam who followed what they did. None of the leaders and commanders of the revolution had a role in shaping what came to be that day. Even the students themselves thought that everything would be over in a few days and they would return home. But the Imam followed the events and called it a revolution greater than the first revolution. Only an Imam who has experienced the bitter taste of 13 years of exile knows that a society which has lived under rigid and severe rule does not have spirit and does not have a healthy existence. He preferred to let people lead because he knew simply passing one historic milestone is not enough in the prosperity of a nation. The nation must have such knowledge and insight to be able to tell right from wrong in every day and age, and to be able to walk the right path. Today, our people are the leaders and this is the great wish that the Imam had for them. He invited us to those things which promise life.

And now, the 13th of Aban, this greenest day of the year is approaching. Today, is it conceivable that the flame of the people’s movement may be extinguished if a fellow countrymen is kept silent? If such a thing happens, we will lose the fruit of 45 years of our history and our struggle. And if it doesn’t happen, this will show the roots of our revolutionary spirit. It is reliance on these roots that have made us green, If we leave these roots neglected, we will have turned to those very things that our opponents wish. It is thus absolutely necessary that we carefully approach any such extreme efforts.

Our movement will not benefit from leaving Islam to the hands of worshipers of superstition, leaving the revolution to the incompetent and the devious, neglecting the fruits of 100 years of struggle and replacing that heritage with misconstrued and twisted images and alienating ourselves from that heritage. If some foreign governments insist on such tendencies, that may be because they have personal gains in such an effort. If need be, they will sit at the negotiation tables while turning their backs on the current movement of the Iranians, and they will be content with the little freedom and political progress that exists in neighboring countries, and we can not reprimand them for such actions. It is we ourselves who must be reprimanded if we do not tell wisely the interests of our own country.

These days, people are all asking of victory. When will we achieve it? How will we get there faster? And what will add to its perfection? Our entire existence is prayer and inquisition, and we are filled with the lords words who has said that he will grant us some of whatever we may wish [from the Koran: "And he granted some of whatever you asked for."] The mere fact that a demand has been created in society means that no one will be able to get in its way, and governments can only attempt to influence factors like time, scale, and the shape of its realization.

Can we too influence these factors? Yes. [As the Koran says] people will only reap rewards to the extent to which they use their intelligence and insight. In the past few months, our people have been blessed with the rewards of their own wisdom.

Our Green path is a path of rationality and shows that we are persistent in standing up for our demands. If we were to be extremists, be certain that there would have been nothing left of us. Extreme enthusiasm leads to unenthusiasm. If you need an example of this, look no further than the foreign policy of this government. The same time when they were busy infusing our international relations with propaganda and refused to utilize moderation and intelligence, it was obvious that they would soon bargain the interests of our people with nothing. Sixteen years ago, neither the media nor statesmen considered developing nuclear fuel for Tehran’s program very important news. Today, it appears that a large proportion of the product of Iran’s nuclear program, which went on to see this much chaos and was to bring a number of sanctions for the people, must be handed to another country, in hopes that they will be kind enough to offer us some fuel later on. Is this a victory? It is an obvious deception when they call this “the greatest of victories”[as President Ahmadinejad said on Thursday].

The statesmen neither solved the problems of the world [as Ahmadinejad claimed he would] or stressed the rights of their own people, but rather they were willing to forgo those rights all together. They showed that in surrendering too they are extremists. Even if with the help of friends, losing the achievements of Iran’s nuclear program will be thwarted, we have not seen the last of this extremism and their actions will pave the way for more sanctions and isolation for Iran.

What we can learn from this is to avoid extremism ourselves. Sooner or later --- and, with the help of God, sooner --- those who stand against the people will leave. On that day, will only a ruined country remain for the nation? What we must be worried about today is the interests of our country and except for its rightful owners, no one else will be occupied with this. Building tomorrow must begin today. We must be so prepared that if tomorrow suddenly presents itself, we will not be taken by surprise. Each of us must feel the great responsibility that rests on our shoulders.

Our constant demand for the constitution to be carried out is a key solution to building the future. With such an approach, we will have a light to guide us in the dark, and we will not be stepping on the struggles of generations past. Whatever remains in our hearts and desires [that is not in the constitution], we will strive for in our life because formal structures do not reflect, for the most part, the greater realities that exist in society.

The greater reality is what goes on in our lives. The superficial structures can arrest the children of this revolution and imprison them like criminals and dress them up in degraded clothing, but the people can look at those images and feel pride and create heroes out of those very images. Who is the winner in this confrontation? The superficial structure can condemn these people in show trials and the people will be the final judge in those trials. Which of these is the true ruler of society? The superficial structure can degrade these families and attempt to shame them with its abusive behavior but while these families suffer, the people will always know them to be courageous and honorable. Which of these two views will win the hearts of these families?

Pay attention.  Up to now, we’ve only been talking about the power that exists in the view of the people, and not about power they have to actually do other things. The superficial structures can sentence these families to isolation and the people can embrace them. Truly, which of these will triumph? The superficial structures can deprive the students of dormitories for the crime of expressing their opinion and deprive them of a livelihood and the social networks can back them with their support. Which of these groups is more powerful?

But this is a wrong way to frame the question because in essence, there is no confrontation between these two entities. One is, and the other isn’t. It is our life that gives meaning to any matter in the external order of society. In the past few months we have changed society not by breaking this external order but by changing its meaning. We have no need to break order when it is we who give it direction in every circumstance.

This will be our path from now on as well. When so many parts of our constitution go unnoticed, the truth is that there is no difference between good law and bad law. Even if the political structure of our country were in the best of orders, what difference does it make when our lives do not give it credibility? Does not give it meaning? Does not approve it and does not ask for it? In the same way, if this structure was backward or wrong, we could only attempt to correct it if we could first correct the meaning and we do this through the path we live in our lives.

There are so many nations who do not choose to exercise this power, who choose to leave power in the hands of the powerful. They will not lead their societies, but we will.

The 13th of Aban is that pledge which reminds us that among us, it is the people who are the leaders. I send my deepest wishes to the people of Iran for this day, and I ask the Lord for freedom, patience and rewards that are worthy of the creators of this day, some of whom are now in prison, and the other hostages of the Green movement.

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2000 GMT: We've posted video of tonight's protests at Sharif University in Tehran.

1840 GMT: Meanwhile, despite Larijani's harsh and perhaps troublesome intervention, the Government strategy --- as signalled by the President --- unfolds. The Islamic Republic News Agency is quoting an "unnamed source" that Iran has not given an "answer" to a specific deal on third-party enrichment. Instead, "The Islamic republic only announced its positive view to the negotiation and has said it is ready to have negotiations based on its technical and economic considerations regarding how to procure fuel for the Tehran reactor." (English summary in Agence France Presse article)

Translation? Iran is trying to take the proposal for shipment of 80 percent of stock off the table, beginning from scratch on the questions of timing and amounts to be delivered to Russia. That in effect undoes three months of talks on the US-led plan while maintaining Tehran's claim that it is still committed to discussions.

1835 GMT: Larijani the Hard-Liner. What is Iran's Speaker of the Parliament playing at?

Almost two weeks after the Sistan-Baluchestan bombing, Ali Larijani cast blame upon the United States:

Reliable evidence shows the US played a role in the recent move. The Iranian nation should correctly recognize the US for what it is. The United States and Israel are the main culprits of these events and known enemies of the Iranian nation.

Larijani has now publicly levelled these charges on at least three occasions, while no one in the Ahmadinejad Government --- as the President welcomes Western concessions towards Iran in nuclear talks --- has done so. So is the Speaker of the Parliament, as we speculated earlier this week, representing the Supreme Leader's specific disquiet over the handling of the bombing? Or is this a wider effort to undermine Ahmadinejad's manoeuvres in a continued "engagement" on the nuclear issue?

1820 GMT: The Price of Defiance. Yesterday we reported --- and readers added information --- on a mathematics student from Sharif University who challenged the Supreme Leader, during his Wednesday speech to "academic elites", with a series of questions.

Well, it is reported today by Sharif University students that their classmate, Mahmoud Vahidnia, was taken away on Thursday night by Revolutionary Guard agents for questioning. His family were told he would only be detained for an hour but have still not heard from him; they have been told by other students that he is fine but cannot talk. It is also claimed that the family has been warned not to speak about the case.

1800 GMT: There are some interesting points on Iran's uranium enrichment coming out of an article by Julian Borger of The Guardian, "The fading of an Iranian mirage". Borger's piece is useful primarily for his exposure of the US-led strategy behind the third-party enrichment deal, "[Iran]wants to hand over the uranium in batches as the fuel rods are delivered. In that scenario, Iran's stockpile of LEU – currently enough to make a bomb – is not reduced, even for a few months. There is no diplomatic dividend, in the form of reduced tensions and negotiating space."
The real meat for discussion about the Iranian programme are in the comments being made by readers about the uranium stockpile.

1425 GMT: And Now, Your Friday Prayer from Tehran, Courtesy of Ayatollah Emami-Kashani.

1. Foreigners Are Devious: "We must identify where the enemy seeks to penetrate the Islamic establishment and then counter it."

2. But Other Foreigners Think Iran's Science (and Nuclear Programme?) Is Fabulous. "We must realize that aside from enemy media outlets, the rest of the world supports the Islamic and scientific movements in Iran. When science is founded upon faith and Islam, no one will be able to stop it."

3. But Remember, Those First Foreigners Are Devious and Jealous. "History has shown that the Islamic civilization, which incorporates science, faith and effort, was taking over the world, when certain parties stepped in and laid claim to the achievements of Muslims. They proclaimed themselves as the owners of the world and enslaved Muslim countries."

4. So Don't Think of Criticising Us. "Criticism that is intended to help make progress is good, but views that are expressed to belittle [the] others are not acceptable in any way."

1405 GMT: Report that all the workers arrested last week in connection with a strike at an Ahwaz pipe factory have now been released.

1400 GMT: Tagheer, the website associated with Mehdi Karroubi, has published a series of photos of Etemade Melli editor-in-chief Mohammad Ghoochani (left), released on bail today after 131 days in detention (see 0945 GMT).

1310 GMT: Ayatollah Montazeri, in solidarity with detainees and their families, has declared that he will not be celebrating Imam Reza's birthday. (English summary on Facebook site associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi)

1300 GMT: Report that Iran's Prosecutor General has confirmed three death sentences previously announced for post-election detainees are final.

1050 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, a fervent critic of the Government during the post-election crisis, has suffered a heart attack and is in intensive care in a hospital in Qom.

0945 GMT: Islamic Labour News Agency is confirming the report that Mohammad Ghoochani, the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper, has been released on $100,000 bail after 131 days in detention.

An EA source adds that Ghoochani was freed at midnight, with no notice to his family, and took a taxi home.

0700 GMT: A slow start to the day so we've focused on an analysis of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political move yesterday, using the nuclear issue to shore up and boost his Presidential legitimacy. We've also posted an extract from his speech in Mashaad.

The quick summary? While the Western media worries over the nuclear question, the sharper-eyed should look towards the bigger issue and bigger battle: Ahmadinejad's quest to establish his authority both against the opposition and against challengers within the regime. We now have the English translation of this week's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, setting up their next moves, and the videos being circulated for the 13 Aban demonstrations.

It is five days to 13 Aban (4 November).

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Iran: Towards 13 Aban — The University Protests
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The Latest from Iran (28 October): The Supreme Leader Jumps In

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1940 GMT: Mondo Bizarro Analogy of the Day. A superficial Daily Telegraph report, "Iran accused of playing games on nuclear deal", is redeemed by this quote from "one diplomati close to the talks": "It's like playing chess with a monkey. You get them to checkmate, and then they swallow the king."

1920 GMT: Throughout yesterday and today (1210 GMT) we have been noting the significance of a meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. We have posted an English translation, courtesy of Khordaad 88, of the account of the discussion from Mousavi's Kalemeh.

1645 GMT: Defiance of the Day. Mowj-e-Sabz features the story of a mathematics student at Sharif University who challenged the Supreme Leader on Wednesday with a series of points about politics, media, and the Iranian leadership.

1505 GMT: Iran has formally submitted its response to the International Atomic Energy. As expected, Tehran has accepted the "framework" of third-party enrichment but wants further discussions on details, such as the timing and amount of uranum stock to be sent to Russia for enrichment.

The IAEA press release says merely, "The Director General is engaged in consultations with the government of Iran as well as all relevant parties, with the hope that agreement on his proposal can be reached soon."



1210 GMT: Now to Make Your Head Spin. In the current context of Ahmadinejad's move, this quote from Mir Hossein Mousavi in his latest talk with Mehdi Karroubi takes on significance: "The discussions in Geneva were really surprising and if the promises given (to the West) are realised, then the hard work of thousands of scientists would be ruined. And if we cannot keep our promises then it would prepare the ground for harder sanctions against the country."

Got it? Mousavi is against the third-party enrichment deal, trying to outbid Ahmadinejad as the defender of Iran's interests and sovereignty.

1200 GMT: Spinning Ahmadinejad Out of Control. The "Western" misunderstanding of the President's manoeuvre, not seeing the internal dimension in Ahmadinejad's quest for legitimacy through the nuclear talks, is escalating. CNN reproduces some of the quotes we have highlighted but reduces them to a "rare conciliatory note" struck by Ahmadinejad.

1110 GMT: Another note on the Ahmadinejad Nuclear Play (0850 and 1040 GMT). It is also significant that the Iranian President emphasised responsibility for past contracts in his talk today, calling on other countries to "fulfill their previous obligations"

We have nuclear contracts. It has been 30 years. We have paid for them…such agreements must be fulfilled … for technical activities, for reactors and power plants. If we intend to cooperate, such contracts must be addressed and the previous commitments must be fulfilled.

As an EA reader shrewdly noted during the Vienna talks, when Iran tried to sideline France from any agreement, Tehran is determined to get either finanical or political advantage out of pre-1979 payments to Western countries for nuclear reactors that were never completed.

1105 GMT: An EA source claims that Iran's judiciary officials are refusing to allow the lawyer of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh to file an appeal against his 15-year prison sentence.

1040 GMT: Western media are buzzing about President Ahmadinejad's statement on the nuclear talks (see 0850 GMT), to the point of mis-reading it.

The Los Angeles Times has a lengthy snap analysis which declares, "Iran's president appears to back nuclear proposal". That's not quite right. Ahmadinejad did not refer to the specific deal on third-party enrichment which Iran is still considering (its reply is supposed to be presented by its Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency today). Instead he declared:

In the past ["the West"] said that we had to halt our nuclear activities. But today they say, 'Come consult about finding solutions for world problems,' and they want to cooperate for the exchange of fuel and development of nuclear technology and establishing a nuclear plant.

That is not an endorsement of a specific agreement but of the general process, and it is an endorsement based on the political advantage for the President rather than any benefit to Iran's nuclear position.

In other words, as we predicted and then debated in early October, Ahmadinejad is trying to use the Geneva and Vienna talks to establish an internal legitimacy that has been in question since 12 June. Whether that effort, which is largely going unnoticed by "Western" media succeeds, will be highlighted by the events up to and including the 13 Aban demonstrations.

0925 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran has issued its latest update on the status of post-election detainees, including the hunger strikes of Fariba Pajooh and Hengameh Shahidi.

0850 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Nuclear Play. The Iranian President has asserted, in a televised speech from Mashaad, that Iran will not retreat "one iota" on its nuclear rights, but it is ready to cooperate on uranium enrichment and nuclear technology. The proposed deal for third-party enrichment for Tehran's medical research reactor is Iran's opportunity to evaluate the "honesty" of world powers and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The President's trip to Mashaad, which is to be the first in a series of visits around Iran, and Iranian press --- as opposed to colleagues in the "West" --- are noting his general references to various issues in housing, industry, agriculture, water and natural resources, and urban planning. However, I'll repeat: Ahmadinejad is clearly using the nuclear figure to strike the pose of confident leader defending Iran. However, focusing on the international front is risky, given the bubbling internal situation leading up to 13 Aban (4 November).

0830 GMT: Ayatollah Khamenei is not the only political figure making a headline statement. The reformist politician and cleric Abdollah Nouri, in an interview with Advar News (summary via Pedestrian), declared that the post-election detentions were a signs of the regime's "hopelessness":

Each of these prisoners is connected to a bigger network. And their family, their friends, the country, we all feel close to them. The establishment has kept them in prison, to keep this protest against the establishment alive? What kind of strategy is that? I am guessing that certain analysis are offered to the lord of the establishment, which predicts that if the prisoners are freed, the establishment’s problems will grow. This is an analysis made out of hopelessness and must not be the basis for decision making.

But Nouri's attack went much farther:

They consider the parts of the constitution which stresses the rights of the people to be worthless trash and other parts as a holy book. When people act on their legal rights, they consider it an act against national security and a step towards overthrowing the system. So who is not acting according to the constitution, the protesters or the establishment?

0815 GMT: The Supreme Leader also made a public statement in his meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday, focusing in this case on Iran's regional position: "The Western prescription for solving problems in the [Middle East] is not justice-based and efficient and cannot solve the region's issues, including the issues of Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan."

Khamenei praised Erdogan's policies, declaring, "Your stance in supporting the Palestinian people was rational and a right move in line with Islam. Adopting such stances will strengthen Turkey's position in the Muslim world."

0720 GMT: We begin today with an analysis of the Supreme Leader's threat to the opposition, handed down in a statement on Wednesday, which may surprise some readers.

Far from seeing it as a move of strength to break up the movement before 13 Aban (4 November), I am reading it as a speech coming out of regime uncertainty and worry over recent signs of protest, both from leaders and from the general public.

Meanwhile, the Government has flexed its muscles, albeit against another "foreign agent" with no connection to the Green movement. Hossein Rassam, an Iranian employee of the British employee, has been sentenced to four years in prison. Rassam was arrested soon after the 12 June election and paraded in the Tehran trials --- like Kian Tajbakhsh, the Iranian-American scholar recently given a 15-year jail term --- as a prime example of the "velvet revolution".

On the international front, a International Atomic Energy Agency team has returned from its three-day inspection of the second uranium enrichment plant at Fordoo near Qom. The head of the team called it a "good trip". Data from the plant will now be analysed and summarised in a report for the IAEA's Governing Board.