The Latest from Iran (31 October): Karroubi to March on 13 Aban

NEW Iran: Mousavi Statement for 13 Aban Demonstrations (31 October)
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Video: Tonight “Allahu Akhbars” at Sharif University
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Latest from Iran (30 October): Now to the Real Contest

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2040 GMT: It's Official: Bring It On. First we had Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement, now we have Mehdi Karroubi's signal that he will be joining the crowds on 13 Aban. The cleric has promised further details soon but indicated that he will be joining students at the "Polytechnic" in Tehran. This may refer to Amir Kabir University, although earlier chatter said Karroubi would be going to Sharif University.

2020 GMT: Handing Down "Justice". The deputy head of Iran's judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, has announced that sentences for 50 post-election detainees have been issued. Some detainees are appealing the verdicts, and Raeesi urged colleagues to speed up the processing of the cases.

For Raeesi, it is clear, has made his mind: “Those who have proposed the elections were fraudulent and created doubt in the public’s mind have undoubtedly committed a grave crime and naturally will have to answer for the crime they have committed.”

1930 GMT: We've now posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement welcoming the 13 Aban (4 November) demonstrations (see 1200 and 1215 GMT). The declaration is a spirited presentation of and for the Green movement in the context of the history of 13 Aban, Ayatollah Khomeini, and the Islamic Revolution.

And it is also a spirited criticism of Ahmadinejad's negotiations over the nuclear programme with the United States and other countries, accusing the President of selling out Iran for the sake of his personal position: "Today, it appears that a large proportion of the product of Iran’s nuclear program, which has caused much chaos and brought a number of sanctions for the people, must be handed to another country, in hopes that they will be kind enough to offer us some fuel later on.

1740 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has met with members of the Central Council of the Islamic Association of Tehran University and Tehran Medical Sciences. Khatami warned that surveillance into personal affairs of people is not allowed even in the cases of those who do not believe in the Establishment or in God, as long as they do not use weapons.

The former President emphasised that the Green movement is against violence but in the opposite side there are some who only think and act violently. Khatami said it must first be accepted that there is a crisis in the society, and then one can find the solution; if there are mistakes in analysing the current situation, there will be more problems in the future.

1730 GMT: Morteza Alviri, Mehdi Karroubi’s representative in the joint Karroubi-Mousavi committee formed to investigate prison abuse cases, was released from prison on bail this afternoon.

There is confusion, however, over Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution who has been illegally detained since June. It was reported that Nabavi had been released, but this has been denied by his family, who say he is still in hospital after surgery last month.

1405 GMT: Alef News carries a purported interview with mathematics student Mahmoud Vahidnia, who challenged the Supreme Leader with a series of questions on Wednesday. Vahidnia denies that he was arrested after the incident.

1340 GMT: The reformist cleric Abdollah Nouri has visited Mohammad Ghoochani, the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper released yesterday after more than four months in detention.

1215 GMT: How Not to Report Breaking News. Reuters summarises the Mousavi statement, "Opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi appeared to urge his supporters on Saturday to take part in rallies next week marking the 30th anniversary of the U.S. embassy takeover by radical students in Tehran."

Appears? Yes, in the same way that the Pope "appears" to be Catholic and many students "appear" to be concerned about the Iranian Government. And nice touch by the news service to frame 13 Aban as just an extension of "radical students" who took Americans hostage in 1979.

1200 GMT: We return from a break to find that Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a statement, his 14th of the post-election crisis, ahead of the 13 Aban (4 November) demonstrations. The statement is a rallying call, praising students for their determination and encouraging them to remain strong for "the Greenest day of the year". Mousavi stands against extremism, as he declares that the "Green path" is the "rational way".

0935 GMT: Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad is not going to be deflected from his strategy of continued engagement as a sign of the acceptance of the legitimacy of Iran's Government. He told veterans today that "the best way forward" for the "West" was "co-operation with the Iranian nation".

0855 GMT: A gentle morning in Iranian politics, so we've been working on other stories from the role of money in US politics to the latest on Israel-Turkey relations as well as an item on Iran's condemnation of the US, Canada, and Europe for human rights violations.

There are increasingly interesting developments on Iran's nuclear talks and US-Iranian relations, however.

Our suspicion about Ali Larijani's renewed attack on Washington for its supposed involvement in the recent suicide bombing in southeastern Iran --- this is a tactic to challenge the Ahmadinejad Government's continued discussions with the US on nuclear issues --- is reinforced by  statements from other high-profile conservative and principlist legislators. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Committee, repeated his objection from earlier this week:

We are completely opposed to the proposal on delivering uranium with 3.5 percent enrichment in exchange for uranium with 20 percent enrichment. There is no guarantee they would give us fuel with 20 percent enrichment in exchange for our delivered LEU. We have deep mistrust in relation to the Westerners.

Kazem Jalali, another key member of the committee, declared, "The demand that we should deliver all enriched nuclear material to other countries so that they would supply Tehran's fuel needs is completely out of the question."

Andrew Lee Butters of Time magazine has a good overview article picking up on the "storm of criticism from across the Iranian political spectrum", highlighting the remarks of Mir Hossein Mousavi as well as the Government's Parliamentary challengers:

Conservatives had accused moderates of treason over previous attempts to reach a nuclear agreement with the West; now the country's embattled opposition leaders are getting their own back, perhaps fearful that rapprochement between the West and Ahmadinejad would reinforce the regime that has cracked down hard since the election.

Latest from Iran (30 October): Now to the Real Contest

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Iran: Text of Ahmadinejad Speech in Mashaad (29 October)
Iran: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting
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Video: The Announcements for the 13 Aban Marches

The Latest from Iran (29 October): Opposition Momentum?

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2000 GMT: We've posted video of tonight's protests at Sharif University in Tehran.

1840 GMT: Meanwhile, despite Larijani's harsh and perhaps troublesome intervention, the Government strategy --- as signalled by the President --- unfolds. The Islamic Republic News Agency is quoting an "unnamed source" that Iran has not given an "answer" to a specific deal on third-party enrichment. Instead, "The Islamic republic only announced its positive view to the negotiation and has said it is ready to have negotiations based on its technical and economic considerations regarding how to procure fuel for the Tehran reactor." (English summary in Agence France Presse article)

Translation? Iran is trying to take the proposal for shipment of 80 percent of stock off the table, beginning from scratch on the questions of timing and amounts to be delivered to Russia. That in effect undoes three months of talks on the US-led plan while maintaining Tehran's claim that it is still committed to discussions.

1835 GMT: Larijani the Hard-Liner. What is Iran's Speaker of the Parliament playing at?

Almost two weeks after the Sistan-Baluchestan bombing, Ali Larijani cast blame upon the United States:

Reliable evidence shows the US played a role in the recent move. The Iranian nation should correctly recognize the US for what it is. The United States and Israel are the main culprits of these events and known enemies of the Iranian nation.

Larijani has now publicly levelled these charges on at least three occasions, while no one in the Ahmadinejad Government --- as the President welcomes Western concessions towards Iran in nuclear talks --- has done so. So is the Speaker of the Parliament, as we speculated earlier this week, representing the Supreme Leader's specific disquiet over the handling of the bombing? Or is this a wider effort to undermine Ahmadinejad's manoeuvres in a continued "engagement" on the nuclear issue?

1820 GMT: The Price of Defiance. Yesterday we reported --- and readers added information --- on a mathematics student from Sharif University who challenged the Supreme Leader, during his Wednesday speech to "academic elites", with a series of questions.

Well, it is reported today by Sharif University students that their classmate, Mahmoud Vahidnia, was taken away on Thursday night by Revolutionary Guard agents for questioning. His family were told he would only be detained for an hour but have still not heard from him; they have been told by other students that he is fine but cannot talk. It is also claimed that the family has been warned not to speak about the case.

1800 GMT: There are some interesting points on Iran's uranium enrichment coming out of an article by Julian Borger of The Guardian, "The fading of an Iranian mirage". Borger's piece is useful primarily for his exposure of the US-led strategy behind the third-party enrichment deal, "[Iran]wants to hand over the uranium in batches as the fuel rods are delivered. In that scenario, Iran's stockpile of LEU – currently enough to make a bomb – is not reduced, even for a few months. There is no diplomatic dividend, in the form of reduced tensions and negotiating space."
The real meat for discussion about the Iranian programme are in the comments being made by readers about the uranium stockpile.

1425 GMT: And Now, Your Friday Prayer from Tehran, Courtesy of Ayatollah Emami-Kashani.

1. Foreigners Are Devious: "We must identify where the enemy seeks to penetrate the Islamic establishment and then counter it."

2. But Other Foreigners Think Iran's Science (and Nuclear Programme?) Is Fabulous. "We must realize that aside from enemy media outlets, the rest of the world supports the Islamic and scientific movements in Iran. When science is founded upon faith and Islam, no one will be able to stop it."

3. But Remember, Those First Foreigners Are Devious and Jealous. "History has shown that the Islamic civilization, which incorporates science, faith and effort, was taking over the world, when certain parties stepped in and laid claim to the achievements of Muslims. They proclaimed themselves as the owners of the world and enslaved Muslim countries."

4. So Don't Think of Criticising Us. "Criticism that is intended to help make progress is good, but views that are expressed to belittle [the] others are not acceptable in any way."

1405 GMT: Report that all the workers arrested last week in connection with a strike at an Ahwaz pipe factory have now been released.

1400 GMT: Tagheer, the website associated with Mehdi Karroubi, has published a series of photos of Etemade Melli editor-in-chief Mohammad Ghoochani (left), released on bail today after 131 days in detention (see 0945 GMT).

1310 GMT: Ayatollah Montazeri, in solidarity with detainees and their families, has declared that he will not be celebrating Imam Reza's birthday. (English summary on Facebook site associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi)

1300 GMT: Report that Iran's Prosecutor General has confirmed three death sentences previously announced for post-election detainees are final.

1050 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, a fervent critic of the Government during the post-election crisis, has suffered a heart attack and is in intensive care in a hospital in Qom.

0945 GMT: Islamic Labour News Agency is confirming the report that Mohammad Ghoochani, the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper, has been released on $100,000 bail after 131 days in detention.

An EA source adds that Ghoochani was freed at midnight, with no notice to his family, and took a taxi home.

0700 GMT: A slow start to the day so we've focused on an analysis of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political move yesterday, using the nuclear issue to shore up and boost his Presidential legitimacy. We've also posted an extract from his speech in Mashaad.

The quick summary? While the Western media worries over the nuclear question, the sharper-eyed should look towards the bigger issue and bigger battle: Ahmadinejad's quest to establish his authority both against the opposition and against challengers within the regime. We now have the English translation of this week's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, setting up their next moves, and the videos being circulated for the 13 Aban demonstrations.

It is five days to 13 Aban (4 November).

Iran: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting

The Latest from Iran (29 October): Opposition Momentum?

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We noted in our updates yesterday the emerging news of a recent meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Khordaad 88 has now provided an English translation of the account from the Mousavi-linked newspaper Kalemeh:

At the start of the meeting, Mehdi Karroubi recalled the events in the exhibition for Journalism [Tehran Media Fair]. He expressed his disappointment about some of the wrong and undeserved reaction against him and Alireza Beheshti [a close advisor to Mousavi, and son of the martyr Ayatollah Beheshti] committed on behalf of an organized minority. He added: “It saddens me to see how bans on newspapers have ‘blessed’ the exhibition. An exhibition for journalism that should be the place for thought and dialogue has turned into a lifeless environment. In addition, some act so boorishly and with such a behavior who knows where they are leading the country to.”

On the same subject, Mir Hossein Mousavi pointed to the clips that he has seen from the exhibition and said, “Despite the bans on journalism, I saw a great crowd of enthusiasts attending the exhibition who were supporting you and the Green movement. Apparently, this annoys the minority to an extent that has made them commit such reactions.”

Mehdi Karroubi alluded to the era when Mousavi was the Prime Minister, “You are well aware of the things I have done. Because of the responsibilities I have had in the Outreach Committee (Komitte Emdad), the Martyrs Foundation (Bonyad Shahid) and the Parliament, I have always been and will remain in contact with people. I can see that people are at a very devastating condition. Poverty, corruption, and fraud have increased. These are consequences of the wrong and inappropriate organization and planning on part of the executive and administrative branches.

Mehdi Karroubi continued by comparing past and present and said, “Unfortunately, financial fraud of some of our officials is one of the main drivers of corruption within the country. I remember the days when government was so clean a bureaucrat would not have the money to pay for his family expenditures in a hospital. Today it’s different. My concern is that the new generation sees this and suspects that it has been like this ever since the early days of the revolution. This generation must know that such widespread economic corruption is a very new phenomenon.”

Based on this concern, Mahdi Karoubi added, “I grow even more sensitive when I hear the claims that this government has revived the discourse of the revolution and of the Imam Khomeini. This is a disgrace to the way of the revolution and the Imam. People, and especially the new generation must understand that we, the siblings of Imam, are against the conditions that govern the country today.”

Mahdi Karoubi also added, “Exaggerations that are common these days about some people and places could cause doubts in religious beliefs of some people, especially members of the newer generation. For instance, I have heard that they talk of the ‘Jamkaran mosque’ as though it is as holy as Masjid-Al-Haram mosque (in Mecca, Saudi Arabia) and Masjid-Al-Aghsa mosque (in Jerusalem, occupied Palestine). Such acts would only help ruin the trust of people even in their own beliefs. I have no idea what motivates some of these ‘honorable’ gentlemen to displace all the values and strip people of their beliefs in anything from their religion to their national history."

Alluding to the current problems in running the country, Mir Hossein Mousavi said, “Our painful concerns are mutual. I too am aware of the problems you alluded to, as well as many other issues. We are in agreement. For instance the outcomes of talks on the nuclear issue in Geneva are shocking. If we do commit to the promises they have given in Geneva we would be undermining the efforts of thousands of the scientists across the country, if we don’t we would open up the door for collective action against us in the form of sanctions. This outcome is the result of an adventurous foreign policy that has no regard for rules and national interests. The ‘interesting’ point here is that while they openly, and repeatedly pay homage to the Americans, they accuse the children of the revolution and experienced public servants of relations and tendencies toward the west and the east. People should be told of affairs so that they would know what is going on in the executive management of the country. When I was the prime minister I used to emphasize that military forces must not involve themselves in the financial affairs of the nation.”

Mir Hossein Mousavi, referring to the mismanagement in the country and to the incidents in the internal and foreign affairs, added: “I have two suspicions. Either some of the gentlemen are on a mission to ruin the country and obliterate the establishment or they are very short-sighted and only think of today. They would only do that which takes them from today to tomorrow. I think the latter is closer to reality. These men only think of today. What happens in the future as a result of their actions is of no importance to them. Otherwise, no other reasoning could explain and defend the risks of this magnitude in the internal and foreign affairs."

Mousavi also pointed out to the trials and detention that take place and the confessions that are broadcast and said, “Some think that such acts can change the things back to the way they were. But they are dreaming the impossible. They do not understand that no threats, detentions, trials, and even forced confessions can change today’s society to that of a year ago.”

Mousavi added, “Freedom of the political prisoners is a national demand. Their freedom can help resolve our situation.”

At the conclusion of this meeting Mahdi Karoubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi discussed ways to improve on the communication between themselves and with people despite closure of most  communication channels and information bridges.

Iran: The Supreme Leader's Threat --- Strength or Weakness?

Iran: Towards 13 Aban — The University Protests
The Latest from Iran (29 October): Opposition Momentum?
The Latest from Iran (28 October): The Supreme Leader Jumps In

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I had just returned from a 2 1/2-hour roundtable on "Obama: The First 300 Days" when I read of Ayatollah Khamenei's Wednesday statement, via an activist on Twitter:

"Questioning the principles of the election is the biggest crime....The very next day after election without any proof or evidence some PPL called the election a lie....The enemy exploited this & those who from the beginning were not supporters of the state joined them....Within the first hours I sent a private message telling them what they R starting will be used by enemy....I told them what they are doing will be exploited by the enemy & this is exactly what has happened."

Getting the news via 140-character bursts heightens the impact, yet as I found the articles, inside and outside Iran, narrating the Supreme Leader's message, the initial reaction did not fade even as it evolved. Evolved from surprise to concern and then hope.

Surprise because I had not expected such a direct assault on the opposition leaders. This is the most pointed warning that the Supreme Leader has put out since his Friday Prayer address a week after the election. Since then, he has spoken more generally about the "foreign threat", letting others shake the fist against internal challengers.

And Khamenei's timing is intriguing. Why raise the stakes so publicly a week before the demonstrations on 13 Aban? Why not let the protest play out, expecting that, for all the efforts of the Green wave, the regime's restrictions on movement and communications would keep mass gatherings (or at least news of those gathering) below the numbers on 15 and 20 June? Of course, a threat may be intended to back down movement leaders keep people off the streets, but it can also have the opposite effect.

The concern is that the Supreme Leader's message is not rhetoric but the portent of action. It is more than the threat that "something will be done" if the protests materialise on 13 Aban; it is a signal that in the next six days moves will be taken to break up opposition.

Some Iranian activists are going even farther, claiming that the Supreme Leader is also intervening against the compromise of the National Unity Plan. The speculation is that Khamenei has decided there will be no reforms in the system; instead, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the architects of that Plan, has gotten the message and warned the opposition that the hammer blow is imminent.

Perhaps. But that is not my reading of the situation. Indeed, after the shock of those initial Twitter flashes had eased, I found concern giving way to an optimism. The Supreme Leader's message is not one coming out of the decision for a coordinating response to knock down the opposition before it can mobilise; it is one forced by the fragmentation and uncertainty within the regime.

First, a personal belief. It is no more than a belief because I cannot verify this assertion, but the more I look at Iranian decision-making over the last month, the more I suspect that the Supreme Leader has been quite ill. The twists and turns of the Iranian tactics in the nuclear talks; the muddled responses to the Sistan-Baluchestan bombings (remember, Khamenei did not issue a statement until days later, after the over-the-top reactions of the Revolutionary Guard and the more measured deliberation of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet); the lack of any evidence that there has been a critique of and response to the National Unity Plan, supposedly sent to the Supreme Leader weeks ago.

If (and I know it's a big if) that is true, this is not just a question of Ayatollah Khamenei reasserting the authority of the regime. It is an issue of reasserting his personal authority, showing strength not only to opponents but to allies.

Yet I return to the point that this was not just a general declaration of Khamenei's firm hand and mind, it was a specific challenge. And it is a challenge issued not after a period of relative calm in the political situation, but after days of resurgent opposition --- the Karroubi statements, the Media Fair episodes, the Mousavi-Karroubi meetings, the signals from senior clerics the university protests.

This, in short, was not a statement which had long been planned by the Supreme Leader to top off the political reality: I'm Back, All is Well. This was a speech which was quickly prepared because the regime is shaken.

Shaken does not mean crumbling. But I think the greater concern this morning is not with the Green movement but with Ayatollah Khamenei. Far from shutting down the movement on 13 Aban, the Supreme Leader may have just indicated that this movement is very, very alive.

It is six days to the demonstrations of 4 November.

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2100 GMT: And for those looking for yet another account of the Karroubi-Mousavi meeting (see 1220 and 1350 GMT), here is the version from Mousavi's website Kalemeh.

1930 GMT: We've posted video of today's demonstration by families of detainees in front of the Tehran Prosecutor General's offices (see 1150 GMT).

1835 GMT: And Then There's the Nice Supreme Leader. Mehr News ignores the Khamenei challenge to the opposition, preferring the Supreme Leader's exhortation to students, “The political insight and religious principles and concepts in the depth of the thoughts of the youth show that today’s younger generation cannot be stopped, and this pure reality is the guarantor of the continuation of the country’s progress.”

Only later in the article does Mehr sneak in the criticism of the Green movement, “The day after the election, some called that great election a lie without any reason or justification. Is it a minor offence?”

Press TV finally gets around to the harsh Khamenei attack on "certain people", but they prefer to avoid the issue for several paragraphs, focusing instead on "foreign attacks".

1810 GMT: Khamenei Intervenes. And the Supreme Leader's message, after the Media Fair episodes, the Mousavi-Karroubi meeting, and the University demonstrations is: Enough is Enough.

Speaking to university staff and students today, according to state television, Khamenei made his sharpest direct attack on opposition leaders since early in the post-election crisis, saying "questioning [of] the basis of the election [was] the biggest crime". He added, "Of course some people inside (Iran) may not be aware that they are moving in line with the enemies' threats, but this issue will not change the truth."

Khamenei claimed that he had sent a private message to opposition leaders, saying that they were starting would be used by enemy". He then issued a not-so-veiled challenge over further moves, claiming, "A politician has to be like a chess player & predict their moves & their results in advance."

1350 GMT: Emrooz has also posted a brief report of the Mousavi-Karroubi meeting. Rooz Online has a longer piece, focusing on the Mousavi-Karroubi discussion of Iran's relations with the "West".

1220 GMT: Did Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi meet? Mizan News says so: the four-hour discussion included consideration of the enrichment agreement with the "5+1" powers, the continuity of the Green movement, and issues related to political reform. They stated the intention to form a joint committee for these concerns, emphasising the need of further regular meetings.

1210 GMT: Thanks to new information from an EA correspondent, we've moved our initial item this morning, on the significance of university protests, to a separate entry.

1154 GMT: Amnesty International has issued a call for the release of 76-year-old Mohammad Maleki on health grounds. Maleki, former Chancellor of Tehran University, has not been seen by friends or family since 14 September. He has been suffering from prostate cancer.

1150 GMT: Families of detainees protested today in front of the office of the Tehran Prosecutor General. They were surrounded by security forces, who prevented others from joining them. (English summary from Reuters, who do not the presence of security forces)

1145 GMT:The reformist Association of Combatant Clerics have held a meeting, chaired by former President Mohammad Khatami. They called on people to demonstrate on 13 Aban (4 November) but to show restraint in the face of the regime's violent provocations.

1135 GMT: Reuters is reporting from Mehr News that Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, will present Tehran's response on Thursday to the proposal for third-party enrichment.

0945 GMT: We've posted an entry posing the question, "Why is $66 Billion Missing from Iran Government Accounts?"

0725 GMT: Karroubi Speaks Again. We've posted an English translation of his latest comments, made to journalists who visited him in his house.

0643 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran have a summary of the latest developments in the cases of post-election detainees.

0630 GMT: Pedestrian offers a fascinating account of the protest at Chamran University in Ahwaz (see video page).

The catalyst was the appearance of member of Parliament Hamid Rasaee, who has signed a letter asking the judiciary to prosecute Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. In his speech, Rasaee compared former President Mohammad Khatami to former US President George W. Bush, claiming, "The followers of Bush in Iran hide behind Khatami’s aba [clerical robe].”

The speech, which was supposed to open a conference on “soft warfare”, was greeted by screaming students wearing green and throwing empty water bottles and --- apparently --- green peppers at him. Unable to continue the speech, he responded, "We believe in the exchange of ideas and respect other people’s viewpoints but here, I am greeted with shouts of liar. We are allowing you to express your view and thus we are not dictators.”

To students' shouts of “Clumsy fool, go back to Tehran!”, he answered, “If Rasaee was a clumsy fool, 40 million people [who voted for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] would not have have given you a slap in the face”. This only brought the chant, "Liar, where is your 63% [the claimed share of the vote for Ahmadinejad on 12 June]?"

The exchange continued for some time, with students finally shouting, "Torture and confessions will no longer silence us.” The conference on soft warfare was reportedly canceled.

0600 GMT: The Government still seems to be occupied --- I would argue distracted --- with the haggling over the uranium enrichment deal. An EA reader offered the essential comment last night that Iran's call for re-negotiation of terms appears to be over a vast over-supply of its holdings for enrichment in Russia: the life of the medical research reactor is only 15 years, but the processing of 80% of Iran's stock provides 110 years of uranium.

That still leaves a curiosity: why did this apparently obvious objection not arise before the Vienna technical talks and indeed during them? Beyond that, however, there is the political impact at home. The regime seems to be scrambling and sometimes arguing amongst itself.

It is exactly one week to 13 Aban (4 November).