The Latest from Iran (28 October): The Supreme Leader Jumps In

NEW Latest Iran Video: Families of Detainees Protest (28 October)
NEW Iran: Towards 13 Aban --- The University Protests
NEW Iran: Are There Billions of Dollars Missing?
NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi Speaks with Journalists (27 October)
Latest Iran Video: University Protests (27 October)
The Latest from Iran (27 October): Domestic and Foreign Collide

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2100 GMT: And for those looking for yet another account of the Karroubi-Mousavi meeting (see 1220 and 1350 GMT), here is the version from Mousavi's website Kalemeh.

1930 GMT: We've posted video of today's demonstration by families of detainees in front of the Tehran Prosecutor General's offices (see 1150 GMT).

1835 GMT: And Then There's the Nice Supreme Leader. Mehr News ignores the Khamenei challenge to the opposition, preferring the Supreme Leader's exhortation to students, “The political insight and religious principles and concepts in the depth of the thoughts of the youth show that today’s younger generation cannot be stopped, and this pure reality is the guarantor of the continuation of the country’s progress.”

Only later in the article does Mehr sneak in the criticism of the Green movement, “The day after the election, some called that great election a lie without any reason or justification. Is it a minor offence?”

Press TV finally gets around to the harsh Khamenei attack on "certain people", but they prefer to avoid the issue for several paragraphs, focusing instead on "foreign attacks".

1810 GMT: Khamenei Intervenes. And the Supreme Leader's message, after the Media Fair episodes, the Mousavi-Karroubi meeting, and the University demonstrations is: Enough is Enough.

Speaking to university staff and students today, according to state television, Khamenei made his sharpest direct attack on opposition leaders since early in the post-election crisis, saying "questioning [of] the basis of the election [was] the biggest crime". He added, "Of course some people inside (Iran) may not be aware that they are moving in line with the enemies' threats, but this issue will not change the truth."

Khamenei claimed that he had sent a private message to opposition leaders, saying that they were starting would be used by enemy". He then issued a not-so-veiled challenge over further moves, claiming, "A politician has to be like a chess player & predict their moves & their results in advance."

1350 GMT: Emrooz has also posted a brief report of the Mousavi-Karroubi meeting. Rooz Online has a longer piece, focusing on the Mousavi-Karroubi discussion of Iran's relations with the "West".

1220 GMT: Did Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi meet? Mizan News says so: the four-hour discussion included consideration of the enrichment agreement with the "5+1" powers, the continuity of the Green movement, and issues related to political reform. They stated the intention to form a joint committee for these concerns, emphasising the need of further regular meetings.

1210 GMT: Thanks to new information from an EA correspondent, we've moved our initial item this morning, on the significance of university protests, to a separate entry.

1154 GMT: Amnesty International has issued a call for the release of 76-year-old Mohammad Maleki on health grounds. Maleki, former Chancellor of Tehran University, has not been seen by friends or family since 14 September. He has been suffering from prostate cancer.

1150 GMT: Families of detainees protested today in front of the office of the Tehran Prosecutor General. They were surrounded by security forces, who prevented others from joining them. (English summary from Reuters, who do not the presence of security forces)

1145 GMT:The reformist Association of Combatant Clerics have held a meeting, chaired by former President Mohammad Khatami. They called on people to demonstrate on 13 Aban (4 November) but to show restraint in the face of the regime's violent provocations.

1135 GMT: Reuters is reporting from Mehr News that Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, will present Tehran's response on Thursday to the proposal for third-party enrichment.

0945 GMT: We've posted an entry posing the question, "Why is $66 Billion Missing from Iran Government Accounts?"

0725 GMT: Karroubi Speaks Again. We've posted an English translation of his latest comments, made to journalists who visited him in his house.

0643 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran have a summary of the latest developments in the cases of post-election detainees.

0630 GMT: Pedestrian offers a fascinating account of the protest at Chamran University in Ahwaz (see video page).

The catalyst was the appearance of member of Parliament Hamid Rasaee, who has signed a letter asking the judiciary to prosecute Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. In his speech, Rasaee compared former President Mohammad Khatami to former US President George W. Bush, claiming, "The followers of Bush in Iran hide behind Khatami’s aba [clerical robe].”

The speech, which was supposed to open a conference on “soft warfare”, was greeted by screaming students wearing green and throwing empty water bottles and --- apparently --- green peppers at him. Unable to continue the speech, he responded, "We believe in the exchange of ideas and respect other people’s viewpoints but here, I am greeted with shouts of liar. We are allowing you to express your view and thus we are not dictators.”

To students' shouts of “Clumsy fool, go back to Tehran!”, he answered, “If Rasaee was a clumsy fool, 40 million people [who voted for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] would not have have given you a slap in the face”. This only brought the chant, "Liar, where is your 63% [the claimed share of the vote for Ahmadinejad on 12 June]?"

The exchange continued for some time, with students finally shouting, "Torture and confessions will no longer silence us.” The conference on soft warfare was reportedly canceled.

0600 GMT: The Government still seems to be occupied --- I would argue distracted --- with the haggling over the uranium enrichment deal. An EA reader offered the essential comment last night that Iran's call for re-negotiation of terms appears to be over a vast over-supply of its holdings for enrichment in Russia: the life of the medical research reactor is only 15 years, but the processing of 80% of Iran's stock provides 110 years of uranium.

That still leaves a curiosity: why did this apparently obvious objection not arise before the Vienna technical talks and indeed during them? Beyond that, however, there is the political impact at home. The regime seems to be scrambling and sometimes arguing amongst itself.

It is exactly one week to 13 Aban (4 November).

The Latest from Iran (21 October): Room for a Challenge?

NEW Iran Newsflash: Lawyer Shadi Sadr Wins Dutch Human Rights Award
NEW Iran: Taking Apart the Jundallah-US Narrative
Video (19-20 October): More University Demonstrations (Tehran & Karaj)
UPDATED Iran’s Nukes: The Real Story on Vienna Talks and the Deal for Uranium Enrichment
The Latest from Iran (20 October): Green Waves or Green Mirage?

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1850 GMT: Spoiler Alert. And while Tehran is being encouraging about the draft enrichment agreement, the "Western" campaign to undercut it has already begun.

David Sanger of The New York Times, who seems to hang around in a hallway until a Government official tells him how to interpret a story, has fired the warning shot. After headlining, "Iran Agrees to Draft of Deal on Exporting Nuclear Fuel", Sanger swings a journalistic hammer at the apparent success. Making clear that "Western suspicions that Iran is secretly developing a nuclear weapon despite its repeated denials", rather than say, Iran's approach to the IAEA over its medical research reactor, "are at the heart of the negotiations", he "reports":

If the 2,600 pounds of fuel leave Iran in batches...experts warn, Iran would be able to replace it almost as quickly as it leaves the country....The estimate that Iran has about 3,500 pounds of low-enriched uranium “assumes that Iran has accurately declared how much fuel it possesses, and does not have a secret supply,” as one senior European diplomat [French? See 1835 GMT] put it....[President Obama] has not made the cessation of enrichment a prerequisite to talks, and the work is still under way, in violation of three United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Perhaps needless to say, Sanger doesn't name any of his "experts". Because this is not an analysis, it's a scare story. [Remember, it was Sanger who only on Monday was saying that Iran was threatening to walk out of the talks.] You Just Can't Trust the Big, Bad Iranians.

Well, perhaps not. But I'm not sure You Can Trust the Objective New York Times either.

1835 GMT: Iran Presses Its Nuclear Advantage. Ali Aghbar Soltanieh has offered a revealing summary of the Vienna talks to the Iranian Student News Agency. First, he made clear that Tehran would be holding Moscow close as the talks progressed:

We have announced that we are willing to cooperate with Russia within the framework of an agreement. Although certain other countries, including the U.S. and France, have been mentioned in the draft agreement, the main party in the agreement will be Russia.

Then Iranian diplomats celebrated an apparent victory over France. Not only had Paris been a vehement critic of Iran's nuclear programme in the run-up to the talks, but Iran --- as our readers noticed --- has a long-standing grievance against Paris over money paid for pre-1979 nuclear projects that were never completed. According to ISNA, "The French delegation apologized to Iran on Wednesday for their country’s past conduct toward Iran and asked IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei to make an effort to put France back in the draft agreement with Tehran."

1635 GMT: Not So Quiet Anymore. This may be the most significant piece of news that will go unnoticed this week.

This morning we wrote, "Watch Qom....The Grand Ayatollahs and Ayatollahs --- Dastgheib, Bayat-Zanjani, Sane'i, Safi Golpaygani --- are pressing for reforms to meet the post-election challenge, and he adds that none of those clerics are fans of Ahmadinejad. Just as significant, they do not operate in a vacuum but interact with secular' players in the political game."

Mehr News now reports:

Majlis Cleric Committee members are going to visit Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kanni, MP Mohammad Taqi Rahbar said on Wednesday. The committee members, during their meeting, will discuss the incidents that followed up the June 12 presidential election and the proposal for the establishment of a national election committee, Rahbar, who also heads the committee, added.

The National Election Committee, put forward by 2009 Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, may not be as prominent in discussions as the National Unity Plan, but it has still provoked heated opposition, both from those who think President Ahmadinejad's legitimacy is being questioned and those who believe it would curb the powers of the Supreme Leader. Conversely, it is galvanising senior clerics who are looking to press their challenge against the post-election abuses of the regime.

1445 GMT: A relatively quiet afternoon. There are rumours and uncertainty over whether or not President Ahmadinejad went to Tehran University today (see 1050 GMT). In the Parliament, there are twists over the complaint that pro-Ahmadinejad MPs were going to file about post-election behaviour by their opponents; the latest story is that Mir Hossein Mousavi is not named.

Meanwhile Press TV is featuring the story that the IAEA has passed the draft plan for uranium enrichment to national delegations for confirmation. It adds no details to reports from Western journalists.

1135 GMT: With many thanks to an EA reader, we've posted the news of a Dutch human rights awards for lawyer Shadi Sadr.

1055 GMT: Breakthrough? According to reporters in Vienna, International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohammad El Baradei has declared that a draft agreement on Iran's uranium enrichment has been reached. Deadline for confirmation by states is Friday.

1050 GMT: We're chasing the report that President Ahmadinejad has made a surprise visit to Tehran University and has been greeted by student protests.

1045 GMT: We've updated our page on the Supreme Leader's health after his appearance with female scholars yesterday.

0900 GMT: Following up our analysis of the effect of Sunday's bombing on Iranian politics and its relations with countries such as the US, we've posted an analysis by Josh Mull posing questions over the alleged link between the Baluch insurgent group Jundallah and the US Government.

0750 GMT: As the death toll from Sunday's bombing rose to 57, the UN Security Council "underlined the need to bring perpetrators, organisers, financiers and sponsors of this reprehensible act of terrorism to justice and urged all states ... to co-operate actively with the Iranian authorities in this regard".

0735 GMT: And just to add one more not-so-weak signal of both opposition potential and Government uncertainty from the last 48 hours. The videos from the University protests are striking: a Government representative shows up at a discussion to face loud protests and even a thrown shoe; 1000s gather despite the threat of academic punishment if not detention.

0645 GMT: Never underestimate the importance of timing. For all the plans and resources that a Government might have, the convergence of events can put a question mark over its efforts. For all the challenges that an opposition faces, developments far removed from their immediate concerns can provide opportunities.

And so, 96 hours after the Supreme Leader's reappeared, 72 hours after the bombings in southeastern Iran, 48 hours after the opening of the technical talks on Iran's nuclear programme, the Ahmadinejad Government --- which had been reasserting its position after the 18 September demonstrations --- seems to be drifting in the political arena. And, to add to its concerns, those who might take advantage are not just the Green Wave; "conservatives" and "principlists" who back the National Unity Plan that has gone to the Supreme Leader know that its first effects will be upon the authority of the President.

Ironically, the present show of strength for Ahmadinejad and Co. is in Vienna rather than Tehran. Iran's diva-ish manoeuvres yesterday, apparently refusing to show up for talks and then pursuing bilateral talks with the US to limit or exclude France in any plan, put the message that any "third-party enrichment" will not be imposed on Tehran but will be framed to meet its concerns. Whether this is because Iran wants a direct return of processed uranium from Russia or --- as a reader helpfully evaluates --- because it is punishing France for holding Iranian payments for pre-1979 nuclear contracts that were never fulfilled, the Iranian Government is dividing the "5+1" countries while maintaining engagement with Washington.

The regime's response to Jundallah's Sunday attacks is not so secure. Politically, the line set out by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki yesterday was quite clever, looking to turn the bombing into co-operation with the Pakistani Government. The Revolutionary Guard appears to be spiralling into threats of vengeance, not only against Jundallah but against any foreign Government that comes to mind. The Guard's latest demand, that Pakistan allow Iranian troops to enter the country and hunt down insurgents, seems to be pointless bluster, as Islamabad will turn down the request quickly, if not sharply. This follows statements by Guard commander General Jafari, with the promise to retaliate against the US and Britain, that could have put the Government's political strategy --- based on engagement despite Sunday's events --- into disarray.

Possibly Ahmadinejad and the Guard are pursuing a good cop/bad cop strategy. Even so, the eyes of the Iranian military seem to have been diverted from the internal political situation. And with the Government occupied with other matters, there has been a curious silence --- both with respect to the Green movement and with respect to the National Unity Plan --- since last week.

This does not mean that the Government's power to assert its authority has been diminished. To the contrary, yesterday's announcement that the Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh would spend 12 to 15 years in jail (a sentence passed several days ago) was meant to show that the fist was still clenched against supposed opponents at home and abroad.

Still, the space for political manouevre --- the space the regime hoped to close down with its threats, surveillances, and disruptions of communication --- has reopened. We still await the responses and unfoldings around Mir Hossein Mousavi's Sunday statement. Meanwhile, a well-placed EA source gives us another, equally important dimension.

This source advises, "Watch Qom". His interpretation is that the Grand Ayatollahs and Ayatollahs --- Dastgheib, Bayat-Zanjani, Sane'i, Safi Golpaygani --- are pressing for reforms to meet the post-election challenge, and he adds that none of those clerics are fans of Ahmadinejad. Just as significant, they do not operate in a vacuum but interact with "secular" players in the political game. So the vehement attack of the "conservative" member of Parliament Ali Motahari on the legitimacy of the President is not just because of Motahari's personal animosity and his connection with the Larijani brothers; it is also because Motahari, the son of an Ayatollah, is working with and reaction to another wave, this one from the Qom seminary.

It is 14 days to 13 Aban (4 November).

The Latest from Iran (20 October): Green Waves or Green Mirage?

NEW Video (19-20 October): More University Demonstrations (Tehran & Karaj)
UPDATED Iran’s Nukes: The Real Story on Vienna Talks and the Deal for Uranium Enrichment
Iran Snap Analysis: Mousavi’s Webcast Takes “National Unity” Beyond Politics
Video: Mousavi’s First Post-Election Webcast (18 October)
The Latest from Iran (19 October): Beyond Bombings, The Pressure on the Government

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2005 GMT: A look at the economy as we draw to a close today. The Iranian Parliament has passed a large portion of the Ahmadinejad Government's proposals for reductions in subsidies on food and energy, objecting only to cuts in subsidies on medicines.

2000 GMT: We've posted updates on today's Vienna talks on Iran's nuclear programme in a separate entry.

1950 GMT: Now that the Iranian press has announced the sentencing of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh (see 1620 GMT), the State Department has commented with further details. Spokesman Ian Kelly said that Tajbakhsh had been given 15 years in prison, clarifying the "more than 12 years" in Iranian reports. Kelly added that the US was "deeply concerned":

Mr. Tajbakhsh poses no threat to the Iranian government or its national security. Given the groundless nature of charges against him we call on Iran to grant his immediate release. As an independent, internationally respected academic, Mr. Tajbakhsh has always sought to foster better understanding between Iran and the United States and Iran and the international community.

1850 GMT: More University Demonstrations. AUT News reports on a protest at Qazvin University today.

1800 GMT: Great Moments in Journalism. Press TV devotes several paragraphs to the "hundreds of Iranian students [who] gathered in front of the Saudi Arabian Embassy to protest the Kingdom's policies towards Muslims" but somehow has failed to notice the thousands of students who protested at Iranian universities today.

1755 GMT: Reuters reports, from Fars News, that more than 100 members of Parliament have filed a complaint with the Iranian judiciary against opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi for "harming the image of the system".

1655 GMT: Protest of the Day. Kayhan, the fervently pro-Government newspaper, had to shut its guestbook and take down its flag at the Iran Media Fair today after visitors filled the guestbook with sentences and decorated the flag with green ribbons. The show of support for the opposition took place even though the Fair was moved behind closed doors because of the fear of protest.

1645 GMT: An Iranian report on the latest demonstrations at Tehran University, involving more than 1000 students, has been posted.

1635 GMT: A "National Unity" Warning to Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami? An interesting and disturbing to the Sunday comments of Habibollah Asgharoladi, the member of Parliament who revealed that the National Unity Plan had been sent to the Supreme Leader for critique. Tabnak reports, from Mehr News, that Asgharoladi has given a warning to Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami, after their "provocative" post-election activity, that they must decide whether or not to come "within the system".

1620 GMT: Stunning and Depressing. In a dramatic illustration of stick following carrot, Iran has followed the release of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari (see 1600 GMT) by imprisoning Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh for at least 12 years. Reports of the sentence circulated this weekend, but it was only confirmed today by the Islamic Republic News Agency.

I must say I am surprised that the regime would make this move, even to show its strength. While Tajbakhsh has been paraded as proof of the "velvet revolution", imposing such a stiff sentence risks a strain in engagement with the US Government, which has asked Tehran to release the academic. And this time, unlike the Roxana Saberi case, where an Iranian court handed down a long prison term before President Ahmadinejad intervened, this verdict had to have the full backing of the Government.

1615 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Back. Ayatollah Khamenei's official website has posted a photograph and full report of the Supreme Leader's meeting with thousands of female scholars and teachers. Khamenei declared that Islam show its "respect and dignity for women and women's talents" in the family, society, and national and international activities. He repeated his criticism of Western academia, specifically the humanities, for its teaching and worldview in contrast to an Iranian approach based on Qu'ranic principles.

The Islamic Republic News Agency is also featuring photographs and repeating the official article word-for-word.

1600 GMT: Newsweek magazine has announced that its journalist, Iranian-Canadian dual national Maziar Bahari, has arrived in London after being allowed to leave Iran. Bahari was detained from 21 June until last Saturday, when he was freed on $300,000. It is unclear whether Bahari will have to return to Iran to stand trial again or will simply forfeit the bail.

1510 GMT: Back from teaching with a key piece of information from a valued EA source. The Supreme Leader did meet the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezatullah Zarghami, at the end of last week. Previously we had reported that the meeting was scheduled but, amidst the rumours about Ayatollah Khamenei's health, had no confirmation that it took place.

One of the topics of conversation may have been a proposal for a statement by the Supreme Leader on IRIB announcing a "five-year plan" for Iran.

1100 GMT: We've posted videos of yesterday's demonstration at Amir Kabir University, Tehran, and today's at Azad University, Karaj. We're waiting for footage from today's protest at Azad University, Tehran.

1030 GMT: Although not as dramatic or as large as the protests at the start of the academic year, demonstrations have persisted in Iranian universities. Today's reports are of 3000 students protesting at Azad University in Tehran and a demonstration at Azad University in Karaj.

0820 GMT: Who's Not on the Enemy List? So Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki declares in a press conference on Tuesday, "[Foreign agents] are resident in Pakistan but violate [the] border of Iran and Pakistan They have links with intelligence services which are settled in the regional countries including Pakistan and Afghanistan." Later he says, "In Basra, British forces were in contact with certain terrorist groups and hold [training] courses for them. When Iranian authorities presented evidence about the issue, the British forces were forced to cut their links with terrorists in southern Iraq and left the area."

OK, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Britain have all supported troublemakers, such as the Baluch insurgent group Jundallah, inside Iran. But, wait, where is the US?

Mottaki's conciliation by not mentioning Washington, reflecting the Cabinet line on Sunday night, was accompanied by an outstretched hand towards Pakistan. He praised measures taken by Islamabad in the last year to jail or extradite "criminals", mentioned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's talk with Pakistani President Asif Zardari on "effective measures", and said an Iranian delegation will soon be in Islamabad for discussions.

0745 GMT: On the international front, we've posted a special analysis after the first day of the Vienna technical talks on Iran's nuclear programme. Don't be distracted by Tehran's posturing and the subsequent poor journalism of "Iran Threatens to Walk Out of Talks". A deal for third-party enrichment is on the table.

0525 GMT: Yesterday morning we speculated, "Other events may prove more significant than the Baluchestan bombing." It has taken less than 24 hours for the speculative to become likely.

The bombing will undoubtedly have long-term effects. Beyond the diversionary headlines over Revolutionary Guard commander Jafari's press conference --- he was blaming the US, Britain, Israel, Pakistan; Iran would "retaliate" --- were his more important comments about a restructured and empowered Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and military ensuring security and control. The overall impression, however, is still of a regime which is trying to regain its footing. The Supreme Leader's statement (whether from him or from his office) is no more than a general bandage of rhetoric, and it was notable that no other high-ranking Government officials acted yesterday to steady the political ship.

Instead, the "other event" that tried to take the initiative was the webcast of Mir Hossein Mousavi. Even though communications are still restricted within Iran, the novelty of Mousavi's first Webcast --- as well as the declared significance of the message on "National Unity" --- should ensure that the news travels quickly. For all the limits on his movement (both physical and political), Mousavi has put out a rallying call to match those of the days before and after the 12 June election.

So far, however, reaction seems mixed. There was a buzz of excitement as word of the Webcast spread. And Mousavi's general invocations for a movement of all --- not just politicians or clerics or intellectuals --- to restore justice and responsibility, fulfilling the ideals of the Iranian nation and the Islamic Republic should raise spirits and hopes.

But then uncertainty set in for some (including, it must be admitted, some of us at EA). Mousavi's call is not to engage with the current political process around the National Unity Plan; it is go beyond it with his own conception of "National Unity" fulfilled by the "Green Path of Hope" social network. Some see this as a bold move to rally the Iranian people with a vision beyond the manipulations and compromises of politics; others see it as Utopian, evasive, or escapist.

Yet for all the importance and merits of that debate --- is the Green Wave overcoming the politics of the regime or dissipating in the face of it? --- the more important issue is whether Mousavi's call is part of a wider strategy encompassing other leaders, networks, and movements.

Early in the post-election crisis, a shrewd EA reader identified Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami as individual but complementary parts of a coordinated opposition machine. Mousavi made the rallying statements, Karroubi pressed the specific cases of injustice and Government abuses, and Khatami worked within the system to gather support. One conceivably could add to that scenario senior clerics such as Grand Ayatollah Sane'i and Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib. Even if Hashemi Rafsanjani proved not to be part of this coordinated movement, but rather pursued his own goals parallel to it, this might be enough to bring significant change.

So today we watch for the statements and measures taken not by Mousavi but by others. Was his declaration of "National Unity", made even as the National Unity Plan of others (conservatives, principlists, Rafsanjani) was being presented to the Supreme Leader, a dramatic but isolated appeal? Or was it only the first of a series of Green waves, all hoping to build strength against an unsettled Government?