The Latest from Iran (24 October): Resurgence at the Fair?

NEW Iran: Football's Going Green (with the help of Press TV)
NEW Iran: The Karroubi Effect
NEW Iran: Karroubi Statement on Events at Iran Media Fair
NEW Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)
Reading Afghanistan and Iran: Scott Lucas on “The Beautiful Truth” Radio

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

1935 GMT: A Note from the Media Fair. As the rumors and discussion continue over the events and protests of the week, another incident, reported by the Iranian Labor News Agency and passed on by an EA correspondent:

A stand for the "Wave of Law" website (a deliberate twist of the term "Green Wave") was dismantled at the press exhibition in Tehran for collecting signatures for a petition seeking a complaint against Mir Hosein Moussavi. The stand faced reluctance from exhibition visitors.

Permission to set up the stand for this new website was given in circumstances in which eligible applicants had been refused. Warnings from the organizers of the Tehran Press Fair were instrumental in the stand's ejection.

1920 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has intervened again with an open letter to the former prosecutor of Tehran, judges, Revolutionary Guard, and the Ministry of Intelligence:

We do not open this letter with “greetings”, as it is a symbol of all that you and your colleagues have denied us and those like us....The mass assault of the agents of the former Tehran prosecutor on the central office of the Participation Front, the election headquarters, and newspapers as well as the mass arrest of the members of the Participation Front, other political, and media activists happened not long ago, and the wave of arrests still continue.

This time you and your colleagues have created a new wonder. Thirty years after the establishment of the “Islamic” system, you silenced the “O God! O God!” prayer in the throats of this nation’s sons and daughters and the innocent families of [political] prisoners by your weapons and handcuffs. We remind you of this because it is the duty of every Muslim to stop their religious brothers and sisters from committing bad deeds that we hope are not being committed deliberately and knowingly but rather unintentionally and under pressure.

Before it is too late come to your senses and don’t be the tools of oppression for the tyrant masters of power. Someday that God willing is coming and is not too far away, they will be too caught up as the results of their words and actions to be able to help you.

1715 GMT: We haven't forgotten you. It is just a relatively quiet period in Iran, and we're heading out to catch up with friends and colleagues. Back later to round up the day's events.

1530 GMT: Saturday Football Story. Looks like the Green wave has made it into a photo of the Iran national team on the Press TV website --- see separate entry.

1455 GMT: The Curious Development with the Nuclear Deal. Something very strange is happening as the Iranian Government deliberates whether to accept the Vienna proposal on uranium enrichment.

Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani has now come out against the agreement, declaring, "Westerners are insisting to go in a direction that speaks of cheating and are imposing some things on us. They are saying we will give you the 20 percent [enriched uranium] fuel for the Tehran reactor only if you give us your enriched uranium. I see no link between these two things."

Larijani's remarks follow those of the Deputy Speaker, Mohammad Reza Bahonar. Neither have had a role in the current negotiations with the "5+1" powers, although Larijani was the former head of Iran's nuclear programme.

So is Larijani, like Bahonar, just staking out some Parliamentary autonomy over whether the deal goes through (and, if so, why)? Or is he reflecting the views of the Supreme Leader, whose endorsement is required for the agreement to proceed?

1430 GMT: For almost two hours, rumours have been racing that Mohammad Khatami and/or Mir Hossein Mousavi have been at the Iran Media Fair this afternoon. The Iranian Labor News Agency was even reporting that Khatami was inside the Mossalla, where the Fair is taking place, before removing the article.

Latest rumours include that Mousavi approached the Fair but did not enter on the advice of security and that one man disguised as Khatami was arrested.

1100 GMT: "Western" Media Foolishness. If Iranian media are highlighting their capacity for distortion and misinformation in their coverage of the Karroubi-Media Fair events, their British counterparts are giving them a run for their money with their representation of Iran's position in the uranium enrichment talks (as we predicted at 0845 GMT). The Times proclaims, "Barack Obama's policy on brink of collapse",while The Daily Telegraph --- citing that most reliable of sources, Mr John Bolton --- yells, "Israeli Military Strike More Likely".

1035 GMT: More Other Side of the Story (see 1015 GMT). The strategy of the Islamic Republic News Agency is to use a member of the Parliament's Cultural Commission to argue that Mehdi Karroubi and his supporters planned yesterday's events at the Media Fair as part of their strategy for "overthrow" of the Iranian system.

Fars News, meanwhile, continues to push the story as one of pro-Government crowds confronting Karroubi with the "Death to the hypocrite" chant, to which Karroubi's bodyguards responded by brandishing guns.

1030 GMT: Deaths in Tehran. Iranian state media is reporting six people, including a judge, have been killed in the Iranian capital. The incident, however, appears to be unrelated to post-election conflict and instead stems from a "family dispute".

1015 GMT: The Other Side of the Story. It is illuminating to compare Mehdi Karroubi's account of the Media Fair experience with that from state media. Press TV portrays a balanced reception --- "Former Iranian presidential candidate Karroubi has been met with slogans both in favor of and against himself....The opponents shouted 'Liar, get lost' and 'Death to Monafeq [hypocrite]' while the proponents chanted, 'Long live Karroubi'." There's also a balance in blame for the violence, "The fair turned into a scene of clashes and some booths were damaged after the politician was attacked by a shoe."

No balance or indeed context in the headline, however: "Karroubi's bodyguard fires into air at Tehran fair".

0920 GMT: We've posted the English translation of Mehdi Karroubi's statement on yesterday's events at the Iran Media Fair in a separate entry.

0855 GMT: Responding to Karroubi. In a signal of the interaction of yesterday's events with the growing clerical movement against the regime, Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani talked with Mehdi Karroubi by phone after the incidents at the Media Fair. Bayat-Zanjani expressed his admiration for Karroubi’s resistance in front of obscene and hideous acts, calling him a fighter and a true believer: “The more influential you are, the more they [Ahmadinejad supporters] resist you and these insulting attempts [just] reveal how successful you are.”

0845 GMT: The Enrichment Deal is On. Just to be clear, while there will be much huffing and puffing about devious/manipulative/dangerous Iran today, Tehran's delay in signing the Vienna deal on third-party enrichment is --- for now --- only another step on the path to agreement.

The US signalled that it would allow more time for Iran's decision, while making the necessary tough noises, in a statement by State Department spokesman Ian Kelly:

Obviously we would have preferred to have a response today. We approach this with a sense of urgency. We can stretch things for a few days, and that's really what we're talking about. But we're not going to wait forever.

An EA reader adds that there is also an easing of hostility in the French media on the Iran nuclear issue, with newspapers like Le Monde accepting that Tehran's response will come next week.

0745 GMT: Pedestrian has posted an English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's remarks on Wednesday to the staff of his Kalemeh Sabz newspaper, which was raided and closed by Government forces on 22 June: "We must not allow the events of the past few months to create pessimism about the revolution."

0725 GMT: Inevitably we are picking up on two major stories this morning.

On the international front, the signs continue that the Iranian regime --- albeit several days after a deadline because of its gamesmanship and the rumblings of its bureaucracy --- will accept the uranium enrichment deal. While it deliberates, the Government has offered another significant concession to the "West"; officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency will arrive in Iran on Saturday to inspect the second uranium enrichment plant at Fordoo near Qom. The visit will last 2-3 days.

However, it is the Mehdi Karroubi story that dominates our initial thoughts this morning. As conversation continues to buzz about his appearance at the Iran Media Fair, the crowd enthusiasm, and the subsequent scuffles, we've posted an analysis of the significance.

The Latest from Iran (20 October): Green Waves or Green Mirage?

NEW Video (19-20 October): More University Demonstrations (Tehran & Karaj)
UPDATED Iran’s Nukes: The Real Story on Vienna Talks and the Deal for Uranium Enrichment
Iran Snap Analysis: Mousavi’s Webcast Takes “National Unity” Beyond Politics
Video: Mousavi’s First Post-Election Webcast (18 October)
The Latest from Iran (19 October): Beyond Bombings, The Pressure on the Government

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis



2005 GMT: A look at the economy as we draw to a close today. The Iranian Parliament has passed a large portion of the Ahmadinejad Government's proposals for reductions in subsidies on food and energy, objecting only to cuts in subsidies on medicines.

2000 GMT: We've posted updates on today's Vienna talks on Iran's nuclear programme in a separate entry.

1950 GMT: Now that the Iranian press has announced the sentencing of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh (see 1620 GMT), the State Department has commented with further details. Spokesman Ian Kelly said that Tajbakhsh had been given 15 years in prison, clarifying the "more than 12 years" in Iranian reports. Kelly added that the US was "deeply concerned":

Mr. Tajbakhsh poses no threat to the Iranian government or its national security. Given the groundless nature of charges against him we call on Iran to grant his immediate release. As an independent, internationally respected academic, Mr. Tajbakhsh has always sought to foster better understanding between Iran and the United States and Iran and the international community.

1850 GMT: More University Demonstrations. AUT News reports on a protest at Qazvin University today.

1800 GMT: Great Moments in Journalism. Press TV devotes several paragraphs to the "hundreds of Iranian students [who] gathered in front of the Saudi Arabian Embassy to protest the Kingdom's policies towards Muslims" but somehow has failed to notice the thousands of students who protested at Iranian universities today.

1755 GMT: Reuters reports, from Fars News, that more than 100 members of Parliament have filed a complaint with the Iranian judiciary against opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi for "harming the image of the system".

1655 GMT: Protest of the Day. Kayhan, the fervently pro-Government newspaper, had to shut its guestbook and take down its flag at the Iran Media Fair today after visitors filled the guestbook with sentences and decorated the flag with green ribbons. The show of support for the opposition took place even though the Fair was moved behind closed doors because of the fear of protest.

1645 GMT: An Iranian report on the latest demonstrations at Tehran University, involving more than 1000 students, has been posted.

1635 GMT: A "National Unity" Warning to Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami? An interesting and disturbing to the Sunday comments of Habibollah Asgharoladi, the member of Parliament who revealed that the National Unity Plan had been sent to the Supreme Leader for critique. Tabnak reports, from Mehr News, that Asgharoladi has given a warning to Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami, after their "provocative" post-election activity, that they must decide whether or not to come "within the system".

1620 GMT: Stunning and Depressing. In a dramatic illustration of stick following carrot, Iran has followed the release of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari (see 1600 GMT) by imprisoning Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh for at least 12 years. Reports of the sentence circulated this weekend, but it was only confirmed today by the Islamic Republic News Agency.

I must say I am surprised that the regime would make this move, even to show its strength. While Tajbakhsh has been paraded as proof of the "velvet revolution", imposing such a stiff sentence risks a strain in engagement with the US Government, which has asked Tehran to release the academic. And this time, unlike the Roxana Saberi case, where an Iranian court handed down a long prison term before President Ahmadinejad intervened, this verdict had to have the full backing of the Government.

1615 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Back. Ayatollah Khamenei's official website has posted a photograph and full report of the Supreme Leader's meeting with thousands of female scholars and teachers. Khamenei declared that Islam show its "respect and dignity for women and women's talents" in the family, society, and national and international activities. He repeated his criticism of Western academia, specifically the humanities, for its teaching and worldview in contrast to an Iranian approach based on Qu'ranic principles.

The Islamic Republic News Agency is also featuring photographs and repeating the official article word-for-word.

1600 GMT: Newsweek magazine has announced that its journalist, Iranian-Canadian dual national Maziar Bahari, has arrived in London after being allowed to leave Iran. Bahari was detained from 21 June until last Saturday, when he was freed on $300,000. It is unclear whether Bahari will have to return to Iran to stand trial again or will simply forfeit the bail.

1510 GMT: Back from teaching with a key piece of information from a valued EA source. The Supreme Leader did meet the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezatullah Zarghami, at the end of last week. Previously we had reported that the meeting was scheduled but, amidst the rumours about Ayatollah Khamenei's health, had no confirmation that it took place.

One of the topics of conversation may have been a proposal for a statement by the Supreme Leader on IRIB announcing a "five-year plan" for Iran.

1100 GMT: We've posted videos of yesterday's demonstration at Amir Kabir University, Tehran, and today's at Azad University, Karaj. We're waiting for footage from today's protest at Azad University, Tehran.

1030 GMT: Although not as dramatic or as large as the protests at the start of the academic year, demonstrations have persisted in Iranian universities. Today's reports are of 3000 students protesting at Azad University in Tehran and a demonstration at Azad University in Karaj.

0820 GMT: Who's Not on the Enemy List? So Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki declares in a press conference on Tuesday, "[Foreign agents] are resident in Pakistan but violate [the] border of Iran and Pakistan They have links with intelligence services which are settled in the regional countries including Pakistan and Afghanistan." Later he says, "In Basra, British forces were in contact with certain terrorist groups and hold [training] courses for them. When Iranian authorities presented evidence about the issue, the British forces were forced to cut their links with terrorists in southern Iraq and left the area."

OK, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Britain have all supported troublemakers, such as the Baluch insurgent group Jundallah, inside Iran. But, wait, where is the US?

Mottaki's conciliation by not mentioning Washington, reflecting the Cabinet line on Sunday night, was accompanied by an outstretched hand towards Pakistan. He praised measures taken by Islamabad in the last year to jail or extradite "criminals", mentioned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's talk with Pakistani President Asif Zardari on "effective measures", and said an Iranian delegation will soon be in Islamabad for discussions.

0745 GMT: On the international front, we've posted a special analysis after the first day of the Vienna technical talks on Iran's nuclear programme. Don't be distracted by Tehran's posturing and the subsequent poor journalism of "Iran Threatens to Walk Out of Talks". A deal for third-party enrichment is on the table.

0525 GMT: Yesterday morning we speculated, "Other events may prove more significant than the Baluchestan bombing." It has taken less than 24 hours for the speculative to become likely.

The bombing will undoubtedly have long-term effects. Beyond the diversionary headlines over Revolutionary Guard commander Jafari's press conference --- he was blaming the US, Britain, Israel, Pakistan; Iran would "retaliate" --- were his more important comments about a restructured and empowered Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and military ensuring security and control. The overall impression, however, is still of a regime which is trying to regain its footing. The Supreme Leader's statement (whether from him or from his office) is no more than a general bandage of rhetoric, and it was notable that no other high-ranking Government officials acted yesterday to steady the political ship.

Instead, the "other event" that tried to take the initiative was the webcast of Mir Hossein Mousavi. Even though communications are still restricted within Iran, the novelty of Mousavi's first Webcast --- as well as the declared significance of the message on "National Unity" --- should ensure that the news travels quickly. For all the limits on his movement (both physical and political), Mousavi has put out a rallying call to match those of the days before and after the 12 June election.

So far, however, reaction seems mixed. There was a buzz of excitement as word of the Webcast spread. And Mousavi's general invocations for a movement of all --- not just politicians or clerics or intellectuals --- to restore justice and responsibility, fulfilling the ideals of the Iranian nation and the Islamic Republic should raise spirits and hopes.

But then uncertainty set in for some (including, it must be admitted, some of us at EA). Mousavi's call is not to engage with the current political process around the National Unity Plan; it is go beyond it with his own conception of "National Unity" fulfilled by the "Green Path of Hope" social network. Some see this as a bold move to rally the Iranian people with a vision beyond the manipulations and compromises of politics; others see it as Utopian, evasive, or escapist.

Yet for all the importance and merits of that debate --- is the Green Wave overcoming the politics of the regime or dissipating in the face of it? --- the more important issue is whether Mousavi's call is part of a wider strategy encompassing other leaders, networks, and movements.

Early in the post-election crisis, a shrewd EA reader identified Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami as individual but complementary parts of a coordinated opposition machine. Mousavi made the rallying statements, Karroubi pressed the specific cases of injustice and Government abuses, and Khatami worked within the system to gather support. One conceivably could add to that scenario senior clerics such as Grand Ayatollah Sane'i and Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib. Even if Hashemi Rafsanjani proved not to be part of this coordinated movement, but rather pursued his own goals parallel to it, this might be enough to bring significant change.

So today we watch for the statements and measures taken not by Mousavi but by others. Was his declaration of "National Unity", made even as the National Unity Plan of others (conservatives, principlists, Rafsanjani) was being presented to the Supreme Leader, a dramatic but isolated appeal? Or was it only the first of a series of Green waves, all hoping to build strength against an unsettled Government?

Israel FM Lieberman: Distance from US, No Agreement with Palestine

Israel-Palestine: Sacrificing the Goldstone Report to the War of Politics

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has reached boiling point. After the leak of a secret memorandum calling for a radical refocus of Israeli foreign policy toward the developing world, he said on Thursday that "it was not the right time to have a final peace agreement with Palestinians".

Lieberman's five-page memorandum is calling for a move from  "lone dependence" on Washington, even if there is no replacement for Israel's special relationship with the United States) to  broader and closer ties with other world powers.

Doing this, Israel will expand ties with "neglected" parts of the world and create a "zero-tolerance" policy for anti-Semitic expression. But here's the immediate significance: Israel will also lower international expectations of a breakthrough in negotiations with the Palestinians

For the time being, this is the only official "response" from Washington, coming when tState Department Spokesman Ian Kelly was asked about Lieberman's statement on Israel Radio:

QUESTION: Israeli Foreign Minister Lieberman.

MR. KELLY: Foreign Minister.

QUESTION: He made this [statement] through Israeli radio – TV?

MR. KELLY: Yeah. No, I haven’t seen that. And we certainly see some urgency in moving beyond our facilitation of getting these talks started, to actually getting them started. And I know that Senator Mitchell, Special Envoy Mitchell is in the region. He met today with President Peres and with Foreign Minister Lieberman. And he’s also meeting, I think, now with Defense Minister Barak. He plans to see Prime Minister Netanyahu tomorrow, as well as Prime Minister Abbas tomorrow.