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Entries in Green Path of Hope (5)

Saturday
Oct312009

Iran: Full Translation of Mousavi Statement for 13 Aban Demonstrations (31 October)

The Latest from Iran (31 October): Parliament’s Challenge to Ahmadinejad

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IRAN 3 NOV DEMOS 4

Adapted from the Facebook site associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi:

In the Name of God the Compassionate, the Merciful,

In our modern history, the 13th of Aban (4th of November) is reminiscent of three events. The first was when Imam Khomeini was exiled, and the movement went into a 13-year recession. After being able to silence the movement by sending the Imam into exile, the Shah’s regime marveled at why such a thing was not done sooner. There was one uprising and one Imam, and when he was far from it, there was nothing left of its spirit. Was the Imam truly alone in the movement he had begun? Never. It is never such that one person can create change in society. He had many followers, but they were not like the friends that would surround him years later, when he said: “our leader is that 13-year-old child".



The second 13th of Aban is the day of 13-year-old leaders --- students who had gathered at the University of Tehran for a protest and faced a most violent death. It was the regime’s experience with the events of the 40s [the 1960s] that caused such a bloody reaction. They [the regime] thought that if they act as determined as before, they will once again achieve the same incredible results. But the base of society had changed. The monarchist establishment was no longer facing one Imam. This time, people had surrounded the Imam, who may not have known him as well as their fathers did or who had not heard his speeches, had as much spirit and strength in their hearts as the Imam himself. Unlike their fathers, they did not need to be repressed or to see as much evil to join this movement

Much has been said about the third 13th of Aban. It is unlikely that anything of that event has remained unsaid, including the fact that in that event, the Imam followed the Muslim students. On the surface, the students called themselves the followers of the Imam, but in reality, it was the Imam who followed what they did. None of the leaders and commanders of the revolution had a role in shaping what came to be that day. Even the students themselves thought that everything would be over in a few days and they would return home. But the Imam followed the events and called it a revolution greater than the first revolution. Only an Imam who has experienced the bitter taste of 13 years of exile knows that a society which has lived under rigid and severe rule does not have spirit and does not have a healthy existence. He preferred to let people lead because he knew simply passing one historic milestone is not enough in the prosperity of a nation. The nation must have such knowledge and insight to be able to tell right from wrong in every day and age, and to be able to walk the right path. Today, our people are the leaders and this is the great wish that the Imam had for them. He invited us to those things which promise life.

And now, the 13th of Aban, this greenest day of the year is approaching. Today, is it conceivable that the flame of the people’s movement may be extinguished if a fellow countrymen is kept silent? If such a thing happens, we will lose the fruit of 45 years of our history and our struggle. And if it doesn’t happen, this will show the roots of our revolutionary spirit. It is reliance on these roots that have made us green, If we leave these roots neglected, we will have turned to those very things that our opponents wish. It is thus absolutely necessary that we carefully approach any such extreme efforts.

Our movement will not benefit from leaving Islam to the hands of worshipers of superstition, leaving the revolution to the incompetent and the devious, neglecting the fruits of 100 years of struggle and replacing that heritage with misconstrued and twisted images and alienating ourselves from that heritage. If some foreign governments insist on such tendencies, that may be because they have personal gains in such an effort. If need be, they will sit at the negotiation tables while turning their backs on the current movement of the Iranians, and they will be content with the little freedom and political progress that exists in neighboring countries, and we can not reprimand them for such actions. It is we ourselves who must be reprimanded if we do not tell wisely the interests of our own country.

These days, people are all asking of victory. When will we achieve it? How will we get there faster? And what will add to its perfection? Our entire existence is prayer and inquisition, and we are filled with the lords words who has said that he will grant us some of whatever we may wish [from the Koran: "And he granted some of whatever you asked for."] The mere fact that a demand has been created in society means that no one will be able to get in its way, and governments can only attempt to influence factors like time, scale, and the shape of its realization.

Can we too influence these factors? Yes. [As the Koran says] people will only reap rewards to the extent to which they use their intelligence and insight. In the past few months, our people have been blessed with the rewards of their own wisdom.

Our Green path is a path of rationality and shows that we are persistent in standing up for our demands. If we were to be extremists, be certain that there would have been nothing left of us. Extreme enthusiasm leads to unenthusiasm. If you need an example of this, look no further than the foreign policy of this government. The same time when they were busy infusing our international relations with propaganda and refused to utilize moderation and intelligence, it was obvious that they would soon bargain the interests of our people with nothing. Sixteen years ago, neither the media nor statesmen considered developing nuclear fuel for Tehran’s program very important news. Today, it appears that a large proportion of the product of Iran’s nuclear program, which went on to see this much chaos and was to bring a number of sanctions for the people, must be handed to another country, in hopes that they will be kind enough to offer us some fuel later on. Is this a victory? It is an obvious deception when they call this “the greatest of victories”[as President Ahmadinejad said on Thursday].

The statesmen neither solved the problems of the world [as Ahmadinejad claimed he would] or stressed the rights of their own people, but rather they were willing to forgo those rights all together. They showed that in surrendering too they are extremists. Even if with the help of friends, losing the achievements of Iran’s nuclear program will be thwarted, we have not seen the last of this extremism and their actions will pave the way for more sanctions and isolation for Iran.

What we can learn from this is to avoid extremism ourselves. Sooner or later --- and, with the help of God, sooner --- those who stand against the people will leave. On that day, will only a ruined country remain for the nation? What we must be worried about today is the interests of our country and except for its rightful owners, no one else will be occupied with this. Building tomorrow must begin today. We must be so prepared that if tomorrow suddenly presents itself, we will not be taken by surprise. Each of us must feel the great responsibility that rests on our shoulders.

Our constant demand for the constitution to be carried out is a key solution to building the future. With such an approach, we will have a light to guide us in the dark, and we will not be stepping on the struggles of generations past. Whatever remains in our hearts and desires [that is not in the constitution], we will strive for in our life because formal structures do not reflect, for the most part, the greater realities that exist in society.

The greater reality is what goes on in our lives. The superficial structures can arrest the children of this revolution and imprison them like criminals and dress them up in degraded clothing, but the people can look at those images and feel pride and create heroes out of those very images. Who is the winner in this confrontation? The superficial structure can condemn these people in show trials and the people will be the final judge in those trials. Which of these is the true ruler of society? The superficial structure can degrade these families and attempt to shame them with its abusive behavior but while these families suffer, the people will always know them to be courageous and honorable. Which of these two views will win the hearts of these families?

Pay attention.  Up to now, we’ve only been talking about the power that exists in the view of the people, and not about power they have to actually do other things. The superficial structures can sentence these families to isolation and the people can embrace them. Truly, which of these will triumph? The superficial structures can deprive the students of dormitories for the crime of expressing their opinion and deprive them of a livelihood and the social networks can back them with their support. Which of these groups is more powerful?

But this is a wrong way to frame the question because in essence, there is no confrontation between these two entities. One is, and the other isn’t. It is our life that gives meaning to any matter in the external order of society. In the past few months we have changed society not by breaking this external order but by changing its meaning. We have no need to break order when it is we who give it direction in every circumstance.

This will be our path from now on as well. When so many parts of our constitution go unnoticed, the truth is that there is no difference between good law and bad law. Even if the political structure of our country were in the best of orders, what difference does it make when our lives do not give it credibility? Does not give it meaning? Does not approve it and does not ask for it? In the same way, if this structure was backward or wrong, we could only attempt to correct it if we could first correct the meaning and we do this through the path we live in our lives.

There are so many nations who do not choose to exercise this power, who choose to leave power in the hands of the powerful. They will not lead their societies, but we will.

The 13th of Aban is that pledge which reminds us that among us, it is the people who are the leaders. I send my deepest wishes to the people of Iran for this day, and I ask the Lord for freedom, patience and rewards that are worthy of the creators of this day, some of whom are now in prison, and the other hostages of the Green movement.
Tuesday
Oct202009

The Latest from Iran (20 October): Green Waves or Green Mirage?

NEW Video (19-20 October): More University Demonstrations (Tehran & Karaj)
UPDATED
Iran’s Nukes: The Real Story on Vienna Talks and the Deal for Uranium Enrichment

Iran Snap Analysis: Mousavi’s Webcast Takes “National Unity” Beyond Politics
Video: Mousavi’s First Post-Election Webcast (18 October)
The Latest from Iran (19 October): Beyond Bombings, The Pressure on the Government

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IRAN 18 TIR

2005 GMT: A look at the economy as we draw to a close today. The Iranian Parliament has passed a large portion of the Ahmadinejad Government's proposals for reductions in subsidies on food and energy, objecting only to cuts in subsidies on medicines.

2000 GMT: We've posted updates on today's Vienna talks on Iran's nuclear programme in a separate entry.

1950 GMT: Now that the Iranian press has announced the sentencing of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh (see 1620 GMT), the State Department has commented with further details. Spokesman Ian Kelly said that Tajbakhsh had been given 15 years in prison, clarifying the "more than 12 years" in Iranian reports. Kelly added that the US was "deeply concerned":
Mr. Tajbakhsh poses no threat to the Iranian government or its national security. Given the groundless nature of charges against him we call on Iran to grant his immediate release. As an independent, internationally respected academic, Mr. Tajbakhsh has always sought to foster better understanding between Iran and the United States and Iran and the international community.

1850 GMT: More University Demonstrations. AUT News reports on a protest at Qazvin University today.

1800 GMT: Great Moments in Journalism. Press TV devotes several paragraphs to the "hundreds of Iranian students [who] gathered in front of the Saudi Arabian Embassy to protest the Kingdom's policies towards Muslims" but somehow has failed to notice the thousands of students who protested at Iranian universities today.

1755 GMT: Reuters reports, from Fars News, that more than 100 members of Parliament have filed a complaint with the Iranian judiciary against opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi for "harming the image of the system".

1655 GMT: Protest of the Day. Kayhan, the fervently pro-Government newspaper, had to shut its guestbook and take down its flag at the Iran Media Fair today after visitors filled the guestbook with sentences and decorated the flag with green ribbons. The show of support for the opposition took place even though the Fair was moved behind closed doors because of the fear of protest.

1645 GMT: An Iranian report on the latest demonstrations at Tehran University, involving more than 1000 students, has been posted.

1635 GMT: A "National Unity" Warning to Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami? An interesting and disturbing to the Sunday comments of Habibollah Asgharoladi, the member of Parliament who revealed that the National Unity Plan had been sent to the Supreme Leader for critique. Tabnak reports, from Mehr News, that Asgharoladi has given a warning to Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami, after their "provocative" post-election activity, that they must decide whether or not to come "within the system".

1620 GMT: Stunning and Depressing. In a dramatic illustration of stick following carrot, Iran has followed the release of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari (see 1600 GMT) by imprisoning Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh for at least 12 years. Reports of the sentence circulated this weekend, but it was only confirmed today by the Islamic Republic News Agency.

I must say I am surprised that the regime would make this move, even to show its strength. While Tajbakhsh has been paraded as proof of the "velvet revolution", imposing such a stiff sentence risks a strain in engagement with the US Government, which has asked Tehran to release the academic. And this time, unlike the Roxana Saberi case, where an Iranian court handed down a long prison term before President Ahmadinejad intervened, this verdict had to have the full backing of the Government.

1615 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Back. Ayatollah Khamenei's official website has posted a photograph and full report of the Supreme Leader's meeting with thousands of female scholars and teachers. Khamenei declared that Islam show its "respect and dignity for women and women's talents" in the family, society, and national and international activities. He repeated his criticism of Western academia, specifically the humanities, for its teaching and worldview in contrast to an Iranian approach based on Qu'ranic principles.

The Islamic Republic News Agency is also featuring photographs and repeating the official article word-for-word.

1600 GMT: Newsweek magazine has announced that its journalist, Iranian-Canadian dual national Maziar Bahari, has arrived in London after being allowed to leave Iran. Bahari was detained from 21 June until last Saturday, when he was freed on $300,000. It is unclear whether Bahari will have to return to Iran to stand trial again or will simply forfeit the bail.

1510 GMT: Back from teaching with a key piece of information from a valued EA source. The Supreme Leader did meet the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezatullah Zarghami, at the end of last week. Previously we had reported that the meeting was scheduled but, amidst the rumours about Ayatollah Khamenei's health, had no confirmation that it took place.

One of the topics of conversation may have been a proposal for a statement by the Supreme Leader on IRIB announcing a "five-year plan" for Iran.

1100 GMT: We've posted videos of yesterday's demonstration at Amir Kabir University, Tehran, and today's at Azad University, Karaj. We're waiting for footage from today's protest at Azad University, Tehran.

1030 GMT: Although not as dramatic or as large as the protests at the start of the academic year, demonstrations have persisted in Iranian universities. Today's reports are of 3000 students protesting at Azad University in Tehran and a demonstration at Azad University in Karaj.

0820 GMT: Who's Not on the Enemy List? So Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki declares in a press conference on Tuesday, "[Foreign agents] are resident in Pakistan but violate [the] border of Iran and Pakistan They have links with intelligence services which are settled in the regional countries including Pakistan and Afghanistan." Later he says, "In Basra, British forces were in contact with certain terrorist groups and hold [training] courses for them. When Iranian authorities presented evidence about the issue, the British forces were forced to cut their links with terrorists in southern Iraq and left the area."

OK, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Britain have all supported troublemakers, such as the Baluch insurgent group Jundallah, inside Iran. But, wait, where is the US?

Mottaki's conciliation by not mentioning Washington, reflecting the Cabinet line on Sunday night, was accompanied by an outstretched hand towards Pakistan. He praised measures taken by Islamabad in the last year to jail or extradite "criminals", mentioned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's talk with Pakistani President Asif Zardari on "effective measures", and said an Iranian delegation will soon be in Islamabad for discussions.

0745 GMT: On the international front, we've posted a special analysis after the first day of the Vienna technical talks on Iran's nuclear programme. Don't be distracted by Tehran's posturing and the subsequent poor journalism of "Iran Threatens to Walk Out of Talks". A deal for third-party enrichment is on the table.

0525 GMT: Yesterday morning we speculated, "Other events may prove more significant than the Baluchestan bombing." It has taken less than 24 hours for the speculative to become likely.

The bombing will undoubtedly have long-term effects. Beyond the diversionary headlines over Revolutionary Guard commander Jafari's press conference --- he was blaming the US, Britain, Israel, Pakistan; Iran would "retaliate" --- were his more important comments about a restructured and empowered Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and military ensuring security and control. The overall impression, however, is still of a regime which is trying to regain its footing. The Supreme Leader's statement (whether from him or from his office) is no more than a general bandage of rhetoric, and it was notable that no other high-ranking Government officials acted yesterday to steady the political ship.

Instead, the "other event" that tried to take the initiative was the webcast of Mir Hossein Mousavi. Even though communications are still restricted within Iran, the novelty of Mousavi's first Webcast --- as well as the declared significance of the message on "National Unity" --- should ensure that the news travels quickly. For all the limits on his movement (both physical and political), Mousavi has put out a rallying call to match those of the days before and after the 12 June election.

So far, however, reaction seems mixed. There was a buzz of excitement as word of the Webcast spread. And Mousavi's general invocations for a movement of all --- not just politicians or clerics or intellectuals --- to restore justice and responsibility, fulfilling the ideals of the Iranian nation and the Islamic Republic should raise spirits and hopes.

But then uncertainty set in for some (including, it must be admitted, some of us at EA). Mousavi's call is not to engage with the current political process around the National Unity Plan; it is go beyond it with his own conception of "National Unity" fulfilled by the "Green Path of Hope" social network. Some see this as a bold move to rally the Iranian people with a vision beyond the manipulations and compromises of politics; others see it as Utopian, evasive, or escapist.

Yet for all the importance and merits of that debate --- is the Green Wave overcoming the politics of the regime or dissipating in the face of it? --- the more important issue is whether Mousavi's call is part of a wider strategy encompassing other leaders, networks, and movements.

Early in the post-election crisis, a shrewd EA reader identified Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami as individual but complementary parts of a coordinated opposition machine. Mousavi made the rallying statements, Karroubi pressed the specific cases of injustice and Government abuses, and Khatami worked within the system to gather support. One conceivably could add to that scenario senior clerics such as Grand Ayatollah Sane'i and Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib. Even if Hashemi Rafsanjani proved not to be part of this coordinated movement, but rather pursued his own goals parallel to it, this might be enough to bring significant change.

So today we watch for the statements and measures taken not by Mousavi but by others. Was his declaration of "National Unity", made even as the National Unity Plan of others (conservatives, principlists, Rafsanjani) was being presented to the Supreme Leader, a dramatic but isolated appeal? Or was it only the first of a series of Green waves, all hoping to build strength against an unsettled Government?
Monday
Oct192009

The Latest from Iran (19 October): Beyond Bombings, The Pressure on the Government

NEW Iran Snap Analysis: Mousavi’s Webcast Takes “National Unity” Beyond Politics
NEW Iran Discussion: The Bombings, Jundallah, and the US
NEW Video: Mousavi’s First Post-Election Webcast (18 October)
NEW Video: Larijani on The Bombings, Jundallah & The US (18 October)
Iran Newsflash: National Unity Plan Submitted to Supreme Leader

Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery
Video: Blame on Sunni Group Jundallah, US For Bombing
The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings

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IRAN 3 NOV DEMOS1910 GMT: In case you're wondering why, after the initial media distractions (0825 and 1355 GMT), there were no updates on today's talks between Iran and the "5+1" powers over uranium enrichment....

Well, there was precious little to report, as all delegations stayed tight-lipped. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, offered some general encouragement, praising "a good meeting....We are off to a good start," but saying only that talks would resume Tuesday morning.

This was always the most likely outcome, since details of uranium enrichment and the logistics of transport and processing can be surprisingly complex. However, it appears that some of the international media were expecting the drama of either an agreement or a breakdown within hours, if not minutes. That foiled expectation produced the day's alternative high point, the tragi-comedy of CNN's Matthew Chance sinking from excitement into chilly whimpering:

1. just did first live shot....talks not even started yet, but lot of anticipation
2. ok talks finally begun
3. gonna do live right now
4. freezing out here...
5. jeez..all day silence... now the talks have broken up....

1840 GMT: Clerical Hope. Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, meeting members of the Qom branch of the “Green Path of Hope”, has said different views should not lead to division and should be resolved through dialogue and negotiation. He asked, however, how one can speak to a Government that calls people agents of traitors and foreigners and that insults the families of martyred heroes. (English summary on Mousavi Facebook site)

1815 GMT: Khamenei Speaks (or At Least His Official Site Does). Back from an academic break to find the official statement from the Supreme Leader on the Sunday bombings: "The Islamic system shall not withhold any energy to defend the region and the people" against the terrorists and enemies "backed by arrogant governments".

1555 GMT: Supreme Leader Speaks? Reuters reports, from Press TV, that Ayatollah Khamenei has said that Iran will "punish" those responsible for Sunday's bombings and that enemies "can't harm the unity" amongst Iranians. It is unclear, however, whether the Supreme Leader's statement was in a message on his website or in a public appearance.

1545 GMT: Political Terms. We have been referring to Jundallah in the last 48 hours as a "Sunni group", but my impression is that a more accurate description would be "Baluch insurgent group", reflecting the regional emphasis of its objectives. Any comments most welcome.

1505 GMT: We have moved our snap analysis of Mir Hossein Mousavi's webcast on "National Unity" to a separate entry.

1435 GMT: Here They (the Revolutionary Guard and the "Western" Media) Go Again. A predictable if ridiculous escalation in the Iran v. US narrative. The commander of the Revolutionary Guard, General Jafari, makes his comments to Iranian journalists denouncing the US, Israel, and Pakistan in Sunday's bombings by Jundallah and promises to "retaliate" (see 0850 GMT). Reuters turns Jafari not only into the Ahmadinejad Government but all of Iran, as in its headline, "Iran Threatens Britain and US After Guard Bombing".  The Guardian gives a token nod to Islamabad but does no other reporting beyond Reuters' declaration with its  "Iran blames Pakistan and west for deadly suicide bombing: Iran vows revenge".

None of the "Western" journalists, to our knowledge, take any notice of last night's Cabinet meeting, which distanced itself from criticism of the US. Indeed, no one seems to bother to ask, "If Iran really blames the US for this act, why is it negotiating with Washington at the Vienna talks today?"

1355 GMT: A Non-Threat. Let's hope the Western press don't swallow this (frankly ridiculous) media bait on today's enrichment talks. Press TV is featuring the declaration, from "a source close to the meetings", "Iran Rejects 'Direct Talks' with France in Vienna".

Since Iran is not speaking directly to France but to the "5+1" powers, this is the reddest of red herrings having no significance whatsoever.

1345 GMT: Montazeri E-Mails the BBC. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has responded to a series of questions from the BBC on the Iranian Government and the Islamic Regime. After a rather fatuous start, "What is your view of claims that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in contact with the Hidden Imam and that his government is working for the return of the Mahdi?", the interview produces Montazeri's declaration, "Due to the short-sightedness, ineptitude and lack of wisdom, as well as arrogance and neglect of the demands of the majority of the people by a small inefficient minority, many of the initial ideals of the revolution have not been fulfilled." And he repeats his warning to the Supreme Leader:
As, in my view, the government will not achieve legitimacy without the support of the people, and as the necessary and obligatory condition for the legitimacy of the ruler is his popularity and the people's satisfaction with him; therefore, the present dissatisfaction - which is unfortunately increasing - will have a direct bearing on the legitimacy of the ruling establishment, unless the wiser figures in the nation can think of a solution by changing the current policies, and can remove the causes of the dissatisfaction of the majority of the people, and deal with the people with kindness, mercy, compassion and humility.

1315 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have each issued statements condemning Sunday's bombings.

1230 GMT: Another Post-Election Prison Sentence. Hedayat Aghaei, a senior member of the Kargozaran Party, has been sentenced to five years in prison for "disrupting the public order by provoking people to riot, propagating against the Islamic republic...and acting against national security”.

The twist in the tale is that Kargozaran has been seen more as a party linked to Hashemi Rafsanjani, raising the question of how much this is a symbolic move against the former President.

1045 GMT: Where is Khamenei? At the risk of re-igniting rumours and speculation, a question: is it unusual for no statement or appearance from the Supreme Leader given the death toll from yesterday's bombings in Sistan-Baluchestan?

1040 GMT: Hammihan News reports that journalist Masoud Bastani, detained in early July, has been sentenced to six years in prison.

0850 GMT: The Government's Disarray Continues. President Ahmadinejad may want to get a hold of his Revolutionary Guards commander, General Mohammad Ali Jafari. Jafari has upset the Cabinet's attempts to damp down talk of US-first responsibility for the Sunday bombings, telling journalists that Washington and Israel are behind the attack and claiming links of Jundallah head Abdolmalek Rigi with US and Pakistani intelligence services.

0840 GMT: The Pakistani Government has denied any link to Sunday's bombing in southeastern Iran. "Pakistan is not involved in terrorist activities ... we are striving to eradicate this menace," Foreign Ministry Spokesman Abdul Basit told the Daily Times newspaper .

Pakistani President Asif Zardari has called Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to offer his condolences and reaffirm Pakistan’s commitment to fighting extremists.

0825 GMT: As the technical discussions between Iran and the "5+1" powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) open in Vienna, Tehran is throwing up a lot of chaff to divert the media. Following yesterday's assertion that Iran was not looking for third-party enrichment but would seek to buy high-enriched uranium from the US and other countries, a spokesman for Iran's nuclear energy authority declared this morning, "If the talks do not bring about Iran's desired result ... we will start to further enrich uranium ourselves."

Don't be distracted. The main proposal on the table is still the US-developed plan, after Iranian signals in June, for 80 percent of Iran's low-enriched uranium to be processed to 19.75 percent in Russia. (Here's our reminder of the details of the plan and negotiations.) That is the message between the lines of this report from Press TV, under the cover of "local enrichment", "The United States is considering ways to officially announce that it has agreed to Iran's demand to locally enrich uranium, sources say. The US has held private meetings with its European allies in order to inform them about the decision."

0815 GMT: EA's Mr  Smith and Chris Emery met up last night for a chat about the Sunday bombing, Jundallah, and the allegations of US involvement. The outcome is in a separate entry.

0725 GMT: The effects of yesterday's bombings in southeastern Iran still resonate, with people inside and outside the Government trying to assess the political as well as "security" effects. The immediate impression is that the regime is in a bit of disarray, both from the shock of losing six senior Revolutionary Guard commanders and from the symbolic significance of a suicide attack inside Iran.

The immediate reaction of the Revolutionary Guard and, more interestingly, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani (see separate video) was to blame "foreign elements" such as the US Government for the attacks, but this only caused further political complications. With an Iranian delegation meeting American counterparts and representative of the other "5+1" countries today for technical talks on uranium enrichment, the aggressive line risked a breakdown of engagement and, thus, the threat of harsher economic sanctions on Iran.

So the Ahmadinejad Cabinet, reviewing the situation last night, re-focused Tehran's strategy. blaming Pakistan and pressuring it to co-operate in the pursuit of Jundallah, the insurgent group blamed for the bombings. Given the complexity of Pakistani politics and its own tangled internal situation, that pressure is unlikely to lead to a resolution in the near-future.

But this is the only start of the bombings' political effects.

No doubt the Government will gather itself to put the attacks within the context of post-election "disturbances" by the opposition, but this is not the easiest of propositions. Jundullah is a political light-year away from the nature and content of the Green movement, and of course no one in the opposition is going to offer any public sympathy for violence against Iranian officials or the military, even the Revolutionary Guard.

So, while Ahmadinejad and advisors try to re-align the security situation, internal politics, and their international manoeuvres, there is a space for others to take advantage. And, indeed, yesterday's "other" events may prove more significant than the Baluchestan bombing. The revelation that the National Unity Plan has now gone to the Supreme Leader for consideration (see separate entry) establishes that, despite all the pressure from Ahmadinejad supporters to contain and even sabotage the Plan, a cross-section of groups --- and, yes, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani --- have persisted. We are still in the dark about the details of the Plan, but it has long been clear that its proposals for system reform, first and foremost in the short-term, will put limits and possibly pressure on Ahmadinejad.

So it is far more than notable that Mir Hossein Mousavi made his own intervention yesterday, for the first time using an Internet interview (see separate video) to set out his political vision and call on the Iranian people to persist in their efforts for change. Most importantly for now, he opened by aligning himself with the National Unity Plan while, at the same time, encouraging the Green movement to use "virtual media" to ensure its voice was heard.
Tuesday
Oct132009

The Latest from Iran (13 October): Government Threatens Karroubi

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Shiraz Protest Against Ahmadinejad (12 October)
NEW Video: Protest at Tehran Azad University (13 October)
Iran: The Politics of the Death Sentences
The Latest from Iran (12 October): Green Shoots?

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KARROUBI21915 GMT: The Internet is buzzing over the story that Narges Kalhor, the daughter of President Ahmadinejad's advisor for cultural and media affairs, has applied for asylum in Germany. Kalhor made the application after showing her film The Rake at the International Human Rights Film Festival in Nuremberg. The movie condemns the use of torture in Iranian prisons and the totalitarianism of Iran's authorities.

The filmmaker Hana Makhmalbaf has conducted a video interview with Kalhor.

1810 GMT: Everyone's piling in to mention the Iranian Government's threat to prosecute Mehdi Karroubi for "lies" about the abuse of detainees. Iran's Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie has added to the earlier warnings from his Tehran counterpart, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi: "They [Clerical Court] have been tasked with hearing cases raised against the clergy and [you can] be sure that they will deal with this issue."

1700 GMT: We've posted a set of videos from today's protests by students at Tehran Azad University.

1625 GMT: Yes, A Rafsanjani Signal. EA's Mr Smith checks in to tell us that the interview with Hossein Mar'ashi of the Kargozaran party is even more significant than we thought (1000 GMT):
Mar'ashi is a close relative of Rafsanjani and served as his point man in the Khatami administration (1997-2005). The full text of the interview was published on the youth wing website of Kargozaran, and they explained that the interview had been previously published in censored form by the Etemaad daily due to "heavy pressures". One can surmise that it was Rafsanjani that gave the green light to the publication of the full text to send the message that he is aware of what's going on in the country.

The most significant snippet of the interview is the part in which Mar'ashi states that the regime wishes to have Hashemi "fall on his knees" and they want to make a "Jannati out of him", alluding to the puppet-like stance of the head of the Guardian Council [Ayatollah Jannati] vis-a-vis Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader. He also claimed that "senior leaders" of the IRGC want to arrest the reformist leaders.

1615 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi has posted another set of information about the latest condition of detainees.

1600 GMT: Back from an afternoon of teaching with some most interesting inside information. An EA source with excellent links inside Iran tells us of President Ahmadinejad's trip to Shiraz yesterday.

The vast majority of students who turned out protested against the visit, in which Ahmadinejad reportedly arrived late and left early.

At the same time, Ayatollah Dastgheib, a vocal critic of the Government, gave an important speech to a small audience. The speech has not yet been published but, according to the source's information, Dastgheib went even further in his questioning of the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad's authority and also challenged the position of the Supreme Leader.

1145 GMT: No Worries About Corruption/Mismanagement Allegations? Really? This is the current lead story on the Islamic Republic News Agency website: "Not even one rial [Iranian currency] of oil revenue has been lost. The Ahmadinejad Government is a clean government." The claim comes from a "parliamentary deputy" on the Supreme Audit Court.

1100 GMT: Turning Up the Pressure. Here's the regime response to Mehdi Karroubi's recent renewal of his claims -- expressed through the letter sent by his son to the head of Iranian state broadcasting and his Saturday meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi --- on abuses of detainees and, more broadly, flaws and injustices in the system. Tehran's Prosecutor-General, Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi, has said that a special clerical court is leading an enquiry into whether Karroubi broke the law when he accused security forces of rape and other abuses. (English-language summary available via the Los Angeles Times)

This is not yet a prosecution, more of a "final final warning". EA readers will recall last month when Ali Larijani was despatched, probably by the Supreme Leader, to tell Karroubi to maintain a low-profile silence and when the Government raided Karroubi's offices. Karroubi still joined the Qods Days marches, and his renewed statements have been matched by a restored Web presence.

So the ball is back in Karroubi's court but I fully expect him to play another shot. Game on.

1000 GMT: A Rafsanjani Signal? Hossein Mar'ashi, a high-level official in the Kargozaran party, has said: "Today I believe devoutly that this trueborn way which is presented by Mr. [Mir Hosssein] Mousavi as the "Green Path of Hope", implemented by the ...people in the framework of a movement. The power establishment cannot stand against it in the long-term neither structurally nor legally and has to accept the people's will sooner or later."

Kargozaran has been linked to Hashemi Rafsanjani since its formation in the 1990s, though it is a matter for discussion whether he is associated with this latest move. The Facebook site associated with Zahra Rahnavard, Mousavi's wife, is hopeful, calling the party "close to Rafsanjani".

0945 GMT: So What is This "Ground Resistance Force"? It's a genuine question, as we can't quite get our hands around the significance of this declaration by the head of Iran's armed forces, Major General Hassan Firouzabadi:
After two years of study we decided to change the IRGC [Islamic Revolution Guard Corps]’s structure, for the Basij to work in areas such as software work and the propagation of the Basiji culture in society, and to delegate the tasks, duties and mobilization of Basij units to a new called the IRGC Ground Resistance in order to increase expertise among the units.

The easy read is of a merger of the Basiji militia into the military organisation, but what does mean in terms of the control of those forces? Is this an effective IRGC expansion of authority, accompanying the possibility of its widening political influence? And, in the short term, what does this means for operations against the Green opposition and other demonstrators?

0615 GMT: Little breaking news out of Iran so far today. The New York Times runs instead a context article on "dozens of reporters, photographers and bloggers who have either fled Iran or are trying to flee in the aftermath of the disputed June presidential election", featuring interviews with two of the photographers, one who is still in the country. Mowj-e-Sabz looks forward to the 4 November demonstrations, "reminding the coup government that the issue of the elections is far from over".

Arguably, the most significant development on Monday was the Parliamentary passage of Government cuts in subsidies for energy and food. (Subscription required, but the full article can be accessed via Google Search using title and author.) Of course, the action risks public opposition, particularly as President Ahmadinejad has based his electoral appeal on helping the lower classes of Iran, but as the Minister of Economy told Parliament, "Under the current circumstances about a third of the country's income is directly or indirectly paid in subsidies," the cost of which has risen to $100 billion/year.

Is the Government on rocky economic ground that could cause political shifts? Far too soon to tell, of course, but a sign of nerves comes in Press TV's coverage. Ignoring the subsidy story this morning, its website prefers the reassurance of a natural gas deal between Switzerland and Iran.

EA readers have been paying attention to the economic aspects of the current crisis for several days, including a telling exchange last night, "Why people are taking it so much?" Iran specialists with whom I have been corresponding believe that the initial cuts in subsidies are manageable --- for example, households still get the full discount on purchases to fuel to a certian level, and then pay a "full price" which is amongst the cheapest in the world. However, there may be a cumulative effect. Add the Government measures to non-payment of wages in certain sectors and, in particular cases, strikes.

Despite the quiet, the situation is far from settled, and money and politics could be a combustible mix.
Saturday
Oct102009

The Latest from Iran (10 October): The Death Sentences

NEW Nobel Peace Prize Shock: Ahmadinejad Wins!
Iran’s Power Politics: A Warning To Moscow
Iran: Karroubi Reply to Ahmadinejad’s Appearance on US TV (9 October)
Now, for the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize: Mehdi Karroubi
The Latest from Iran (9 October): Almost Four Months

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KARROUBI 41920 GMT: A Bit of Official Hesitation? Press TV's website posts an article confirming the death sentences on three post-election detainees: "two are responsible for a deadly bombing and the remaining convict is a member of a terrorist organization". It names only Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani.

Some of the article is repetition of the very thin pretext for conviction: Zamani and the other member [Arash Pour-Ramani] of the "Iran Royal Association" are not tied to any criminal incident; however, "the group is responsible for a deadly bombing in the southern city of Shiraz back in April 2008, in which 13 people were killed and hundreds were wounded". The third detainee [Naser Abdul Hosseini] will die simply because his alleged membership in the Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization, the armed wing of the People's Mujahideen Organization of Iran.

Yet, if you read closely, there are a couple of chinks in the article's open-and-shut case. You'll notice in the headline, "In Iran, three 'terrorists' are placed on death row", the quote marks of uncertainty. And the text notes that Ali Zamani's case has been highlighted by Amnesty International.

1630 GMT: A report by AUT News names the three post-election detainees sentenced to death: "monarchists" Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Pourrahmani (both of whom are in the mid-August "confession" video run by Press TV, posted in a separate entry) and Naser Abdol Hosseini, alleged to be a member of the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran.

1530 GMT: Yahoo! Makes It into State Media. It looks like the allegation over Yahoo! passing 200,000 usernames to Iran authorities will now die down, as there is no verification of the Iranian Students Solidarity Organization's claim of a source inside the Iranian Government. Still, the Islamic Republic News Agency gave the story several paragraphs today.

1520 GMT: Radio Netherlands has posted an English summary of the condemnation by the Dutch Foreign Minister (noted in comments below) of the death sentence for Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani.

1505 GMT: Minutes after we told a BBC radio reporter of the death sentences for post-election detainees, the BBC website adds, from the judiciary official who spoke to the Iranian Students News Agency, that "MZ" (probably Mohammad Ali Reza Zamani) and "AP" had been convicted for ties with the Kingdom Assembly of Iran, a banned monarchist group, and "NA" for links with the People's Mujahideen Organization of Iran, which has sought the overthrow of the Islamic government since 1979.

On Thursday, an Iranian reformist website reported that Mr Zamani, 37, had been sentenced to death. It is unclear whether he is the "MZ" mentioned by Isna.

1445 GMT: Parleman News reports that Mir Hossein Mousavi met Thursday with the representative of Grand Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili in Tehran. The description of the discussion is vague, saying that it apparently centred on senior clerics' input into Mousavi's plans for a "social network" for the Green Path of Hope.

1435 GMT: The original Iranian Students News Agency report says only that three post-election detainees have received death sentences. The three cannot be named, according to the newspaper, because appeals are ongoing.

1410 GMT: More Death Sentences? Al Jazeera English, claiming information from Iranian Students News Agency, says a total of three post-election detainees, including Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani, have been sentenced to death by the Tehran Revolutionary Court.

Caution is needed here. We've been following this assertion, first posted by Twitter activists, for several hours. Those reports say three death sentences in addition to Ali Zamani. With the help of readers, we have now found the original ISNA story (see 1435 GMT), but there is no other verification.

0920 GMT: The Persian2English blog has published the English text of a new post-election movement, The Green Thinkers’ Network. Considering "What Is True Freedom For Iran?", the Network writes, "Are we liberal democrats? Is it even necessary to label ourselves with these names? Each name has a history. Why should we carry the history of liberalism on our shoulders? Maybe we can have new customs. In our custom we have religion, but also freedom."

0755 GMT: The Washington Post's alternative to Barack Obama for the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize? Neda Agha Soltan.

0630 GMT: Another quiet start after a relatively gentle Friday, but no doubt that there is one development of significance.

Mehdi Karroubi's letter, posted in the name of his son, to the head of Iran state broadcasting may not seem that dramatic. On the surface, it restates Karroubi's charges of detainee abuse, made since late July, to counter the message of President Ahmadinejad put out on American television. It returns to the battleground of the "enquiry" by the three-member judiciary panel, which unceremoniously threw out Karroubi's claims last month.

But there is a broader message here, both symbolic and very practical. Ahmadinejad might be posing himself on the international stage as Iran's leader, but Karroubi's letter is a reminder that the President has very clay feet. And it comes after weeks in which the Government appeared to have cut off Karroubi's communications. The Etemade Melli newspaper was closed and the website of Karroubi's reformist party was taken down, shutting off the daily drip-drip of allegations that was wearing away the Government authority.

Now the cleric is back, with a resurrected website and the certainty that he is still noticed. He is not mincing words --- Ahmadinejad's "[US] interview was pure lies"; "traitors have viciously attacked me" --- and telling the authorities that he will not be stopped: "The late Imam [Khomeini] said that he would sacrifice his life for the people of this nation."

And the last line of the letter contains pages of meaning, after all the Government attempts to bottle up the opposition in a vacuum of news: "Despite all the efforts, borders have been broken and people have access to information."