Tuesday
Oct132009
The Latest from Iran (13 October): Government Threatens Karroubi
Tuesday, October 13, 2009 at 20:00
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Shiraz Protest Against Ahmadinejad (12 October)
NEW Video: Protest at Tehran Azad University (13 October)
Iran: The Politics of the Death Sentences
The Latest from Iran (12 October): Green Shoots?
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Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
1915 GMT: The Internet is buzzing over the story that Narges Kalhor, the daughter of President Ahmadinejad's advisor for cultural and media affairs, has applied for asylum in Germany. Kalhor made the application after showing her film The Rake at the International Human Rights Film Festival in Nuremberg. The movie condemns the use of torture in Iranian prisons and the totalitarianism of Iran's authorities.
The filmmaker Hana Makhmalbaf has conducted a video interview with Kalhor.
1810 GMT: Everyone's piling in to mention the Iranian Government's threat to prosecute Mehdi Karroubi for "lies" about the abuse of detainees. Iran's Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie has added to the earlier warnings from his Tehran counterpart, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi: "They [Clerical Court] have been tasked with hearing cases raised against the clergy and [you can] be sure that they will deal with this issue."
1700 GMT: We've posted a set of videos from today's protests by students at Tehran Azad University.
1625 GMT: Yes, A Rafsanjani Signal. EA's Mr Smith checks in to tell us that the interview with Hossein Mar'ashi of the Kargozaran party is even more significant than we thought (1000 GMT):
1615 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi has posted another set of information about the latest condition of detainees.
1600 GMT: Back from an afternoon of teaching with some most interesting inside information. An EA source with excellent links inside Iran tells us of President Ahmadinejad's trip to Shiraz yesterday.
The vast majority of students who turned out protested against the visit, in which Ahmadinejad reportedly arrived late and left early.
At the same time, Ayatollah Dastgheib, a vocal critic of the Government, gave an important speech to a small audience. The speech has not yet been published but, according to the source's information, Dastgheib went even further in his questioning of the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad's authority and also challenged the position of the Supreme Leader.
1145 GMT: No Worries About Corruption/Mismanagement Allegations? Really? This is the current lead story on the Islamic Republic News Agency website: "Not even one rial [Iranian currency] of oil revenue has been lost. The Ahmadinejad Government is a clean government." The claim comes from a "parliamentary deputy" on the Supreme Audit Court.
1100 GMT: Turning Up the Pressure. Here's the regime response to Mehdi Karroubi's recent renewal of his claims -- expressed through the letter sent by his son to the head of Iranian state broadcasting and his Saturday meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi --- on abuses of detainees and, more broadly, flaws and injustices in the system. Tehran's Prosecutor-General, Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi, has said that a special clerical court is leading an enquiry into whether Karroubi broke the law when he accused security forces of rape and other abuses. (English-language summary available via the Los Angeles Times)
This is not yet a prosecution, more of a "final final warning". EA readers will recall last month when Ali Larijani was despatched, probably by the Supreme Leader, to tell Karroubi to maintain a low-profile silence and when the Government raided Karroubi's offices. Karroubi still joined the Qods Days marches, and his renewed statements have been matched by a restored Web presence.
So the ball is back in Karroubi's court but I fully expect him to play another shot. Game on.
1000 GMT: A Rafsanjani Signal? Hossein Mar'ashi, a high-level official in the Kargozaran party, has said: "Today I believe devoutly that this trueborn way which is presented by Mr. [Mir Hosssein] Mousavi as the "Green Path of Hope", implemented by the ...people in the framework of a movement. The power establishment cannot stand against it in the long-term neither structurally nor legally and has to accept the people's will sooner or later."
Kargozaran has been linked to Hashemi Rafsanjani since its formation in the 1990s, though it is a matter for discussion whether he is associated with this latest move. The Facebook site associated with Zahra Rahnavard, Mousavi's wife, is hopeful, calling the party "close to Rafsanjani".
0945 GMT: So What is This "Ground Resistance Force"? It's a genuine question, as we can't quite get our hands around the significance of this declaration by the head of Iran's armed forces, Major General Hassan Firouzabadi:
The easy read is of a merger of the Basiji militia into the military organisation, but what does mean in terms of the control of those forces? Is this an effective IRGC expansion of authority, accompanying the possibility of its widening political influence? And, in the short term, what does this means for operations against the Green opposition and other demonstrators?
0615 GMT: Little breaking news out of Iran so far today. The New York Times runs instead a context article on "dozens of reporters, photographers and bloggers who have either fled Iran or are trying to flee in the aftermath of the disputed June presidential election", featuring interviews with two of the photographers, one who is still in the country. Mowj-e-Sabz looks forward to the 4 November demonstrations, "reminding the coup government that the issue of the elections is far from over".
Arguably, the most significant development on Monday was the Parliamentary passage of Government cuts in subsidies for energy and food. (Subscription required, but the full article can be accessed via Google Search using title and author.) Of course, the action risks public opposition, particularly as President Ahmadinejad has based his electoral appeal on helping the lower classes of Iran, but as the Minister of Economy told Parliament, "Under the current circumstances about a third of the country's income is directly or indirectly paid in subsidies," the cost of which has risen to $100 billion/year.
Is the Government on rocky economic ground that could cause political shifts? Far too soon to tell, of course, but a sign of nerves comes in Press TV's coverage. Ignoring the subsidy story this morning, its website prefers the reassurance of a natural gas deal between Switzerland and Iran.
EA readers have been paying attention to the economic aspects of the current crisis for several days, including a telling exchange last night, "Why people are taking it so much?" Iran specialists with whom I have been corresponding believe that the initial cuts in subsidies are manageable --- for example, households still get the full discount on purchases to fuel to a certian level, and then pay a "full price" which is amongst the cheapest in the world. However, there may be a cumulative effect. Add the Government measures to non-payment of wages in certain sectors and, in particular cases, strikes.
Despite the quiet, the situation is far from settled, and money and politics could be a combustible mix.
NEW Video: Protest at Tehran Azad University (13 October)
Iran: The Politics of the Death Sentences
The Latest from Iran (12 October): Green Shoots?
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
1915 GMT: The Internet is buzzing over the story that Narges Kalhor, the daughter of President Ahmadinejad's advisor for cultural and media affairs, has applied for asylum in Germany. Kalhor made the application after showing her film The Rake at the International Human Rights Film Festival in Nuremberg. The movie condemns the use of torture in Iranian prisons and the totalitarianism of Iran's authorities.The filmmaker Hana Makhmalbaf has conducted a video interview with Kalhor.
1810 GMT: Everyone's piling in to mention the Iranian Government's threat to prosecute Mehdi Karroubi for "lies" about the abuse of detainees. Iran's Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie has added to the earlier warnings from his Tehran counterpart, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi: "They [Clerical Court] have been tasked with hearing cases raised against the clergy and [you can] be sure that they will deal with this issue."
1700 GMT: We've posted a set of videos from today's protests by students at Tehran Azad University.
1625 GMT: Yes, A Rafsanjani Signal. EA's Mr Smith checks in to tell us that the interview with Hossein Mar'ashi of the Kargozaran party is even more significant than we thought (1000 GMT):
Mar'ashi is a close relative of Rafsanjani and served as his point man in the Khatami administration (1997-2005). The full text of the interview was published on the youth wing website of Kargozaran, and they explained that the interview had been previously published in censored form by the Etemaad daily due to "heavy pressures". One can surmise that it was Rafsanjani that gave the green light to the publication of the full text to send the message that he is aware of what's going on in the country.
The most significant snippet of the interview is the part in which Mar'ashi states that the regime wishes to have Hashemi "fall on his knees" and they want to make a "Jannati out of him", alluding to the puppet-like stance of the head of the Guardian Council [Ayatollah Jannati] vis-a-vis Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader. He also claimed that "senior leaders" of the IRGC want to arrest the reformist leaders.
1615 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi has posted another set of information about the latest condition of detainees.
1600 GMT: Back from an afternoon of teaching with some most interesting inside information. An EA source with excellent links inside Iran tells us of President Ahmadinejad's trip to Shiraz yesterday.
The vast majority of students who turned out protested against the visit, in which Ahmadinejad reportedly arrived late and left early.
At the same time, Ayatollah Dastgheib, a vocal critic of the Government, gave an important speech to a small audience. The speech has not yet been published but, according to the source's information, Dastgheib went even further in his questioning of the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad's authority and also challenged the position of the Supreme Leader.
1145 GMT: No Worries About Corruption/Mismanagement Allegations? Really? This is the current lead story on the Islamic Republic News Agency website: "Not even one rial [Iranian currency] of oil revenue has been lost. The Ahmadinejad Government is a clean government." The claim comes from a "parliamentary deputy" on the Supreme Audit Court.
1100 GMT: Turning Up the Pressure. Here's the regime response to Mehdi Karroubi's recent renewal of his claims -- expressed through the letter sent by his son to the head of Iranian state broadcasting and his Saturday meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi --- on abuses of detainees and, more broadly, flaws and injustices in the system. Tehran's Prosecutor-General, Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi, has said that a special clerical court is leading an enquiry into whether Karroubi broke the law when he accused security forces of rape and other abuses. (English-language summary available via the Los Angeles Times)
This is not yet a prosecution, more of a "final final warning". EA readers will recall last month when Ali Larijani was despatched, probably by the Supreme Leader, to tell Karroubi to maintain a low-profile silence and when the Government raided Karroubi's offices. Karroubi still joined the Qods Days marches, and his renewed statements have been matched by a restored Web presence.
So the ball is back in Karroubi's court but I fully expect him to play another shot. Game on.
1000 GMT: A Rafsanjani Signal? Hossein Mar'ashi, a high-level official in the Kargozaran party, has said: "Today I believe devoutly that this trueborn way which is presented by Mr. [Mir Hosssein] Mousavi as the "Green Path of Hope", implemented by the ...people in the framework of a movement. The power establishment cannot stand against it in the long-term neither structurally nor legally and has to accept the people's will sooner or later."
Kargozaran has been linked to Hashemi Rafsanjani since its formation in the 1990s, though it is a matter for discussion whether he is associated with this latest move. The Facebook site associated with Zahra Rahnavard, Mousavi's wife, is hopeful, calling the party "close to Rafsanjani".
0945 GMT: So What is This "Ground Resistance Force"? It's a genuine question, as we can't quite get our hands around the significance of this declaration by the head of Iran's armed forces, Major General Hassan Firouzabadi:
After two years of study we decided to change the IRGC [Islamic Revolution Guard Corps]’s structure, for the Basij to work in areas such as software work and the propagation of the Basiji culture in society, and to delegate the tasks, duties and mobilization of Basij units to a new called the IRGC Ground Resistance in order to increase expertise among the units.
The easy read is of a merger of the Basiji militia into the military organisation, but what does mean in terms of the control of those forces? Is this an effective IRGC expansion of authority, accompanying the possibility of its widening political influence? And, in the short term, what does this means for operations against the Green opposition and other demonstrators?
0615 GMT: Little breaking news out of Iran so far today. The New York Times runs instead a context article on "dozens of reporters, photographers and bloggers who have either fled Iran or are trying to flee in the aftermath of the disputed June presidential election", featuring interviews with two of the photographers, one who is still in the country. Mowj-e-Sabz looks forward to the 4 November demonstrations, "reminding the coup government that the issue of the elections is far from over".
Arguably, the most significant development on Monday was the Parliamentary passage of Government cuts in subsidies for energy and food. (Subscription required, but the full article can be accessed via Google Search using title and author.) Of course, the action risks public opposition, particularly as President Ahmadinejad has based his electoral appeal on helping the lower classes of Iran, but as the Minister of Economy told Parliament, "Under the current circumstances about a third of the country's income is directly or indirectly paid in subsidies," the cost of which has risen to $100 billion/year.
Is the Government on rocky economic ground that could cause political shifts? Far too soon to tell, of course, but a sign of nerves comes in Press TV's coverage. Ignoring the subsidy story this morning, its website prefers the reassurance of a natural gas deal between Switzerland and Iran.
EA readers have been paying attention to the economic aspects of the current crisis for several days, including a telling exchange last night, "Why people are taking it so much?" Iran specialists with whom I have been corresponding believe that the initial cuts in subsidies are manageable --- for example, households still get the full discount on purchases to fuel to a certian level, and then pay a "full price" which is amongst the cheapest in the world. However, there may be a cumulative effect. Add the Government measures to non-payment of wages in certain sectors and, in particular cases, strikes.
Despite the quiet, the situation is far from settled, and money and politics could be a combustible mix.
tagged Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib, Etemaad, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, Green Path of Hope, Hana Makhmalbaf, Hassan Firouzabadi, Hossein Mar'ashi, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Kargozaran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Narges Kalhor in Middle East & Iran, Uncategorized
Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib, Etemaad, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, Green Path of Hope, Hana Makhmalbaf, Hassan Firouzabadi, Hossein Mar'ashi, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Kargozaran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Narges Kalhor in Middle East & Iran, Uncategorized
Reader Comments (20)
From Peiknet:
http://peiknet.com/1388/06mehr/21/PAGE/38EHZAR.htm
The SL health is worsening. 3 Specialists Doctors were summoned on Saturday. Doctors recommend all government meetings be discontinued and only private visitors from family.
I have heard rumors for a long time about his health. This could make things interesting.
Don't know if you picked it up yet, but a Dutch news site claims Karroubi will be prosecuted because of his rape claims:
http://www.nos.nl/nosjournaal/artikelen/2009/10/13/iraanseoppositieleideraangeklaagd.html
Scott,
Arabiya TV is reporting that the Iranian judiciary has "filed a complaint" against Mehdi Karroubi for "false accusations of rape" in government detention centers (I assume the reference is to Kahrizak). Have you seen that anywhere?
Edward Yeranian (Voice of America)
Associated Press says that no formal charges have been filed yet, judicial
investigating and 'a special clerical court is leading the inquest' on Karroubi's
"false allegations" of rape in prisons
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ixeFBxfLzaSjs8Mb8cuFmtPOT6-wD9BA56D82
-good luck to them if they think they can shut him down ! How desperate or
plain moronic these delusional hardliners can be ? What's the real purpose of
that i wonder besides plain denial outlet ?
Scott& Edward
Karroubi story also on BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8304293.stm
@ Janette
I remember having a discussion on this matter some weeks ago here on EA. When I was doing my simlpe analyses on the situation I sensed a HASTE/ RUSH tactic from the Guards, as if they were working on a tight time frame. The only major thing I could think off was the SL being very sick and haveing less then 2 years to live. With the Expeciancy council en Assembly of experts being controlled by Hashemi or atleast very much influenced by him and the Marja's they feel like they need to end this before the SL passes away.
Its all just thinking out loud offcourse.
Heavy protests at Azad university right now, turned violent.
@afshin, SL`s health; are there any reliable sources which indicate that he is in a bad shape? I`ve read rumours about his health for a long time, but still the oxygen thief keeps breathing. I agree with you, there are signs that point to SL soon being on his death bed. the Guards ultra-aggressive actions, Hashemi being rather silent than what is expected of him. maybe Hashemi is just waiting for SL to pass away, so he can play his cards, AE and expediency counsil.
'Politics of Death Sentences'
"UN rights chief speaks out against use of death penalty in Iran"
(UN News center, oct.13th)
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=32517&Cr=iran&Cr1=
PressTV did report on the subsidy story (on Sunday), but the tone is a bit different:
Under the bill, subsidies on energy carriers such as gasoline, gas and electricity will be cut and a portion of the recovered revenue will be distributed among lower income citizens.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=108390§ionid=351020102
Interesting, isn't it?
@ xerxes
The facts and the rumours of his health issues are maybe a decade old.
Everybody knows he had/ has Prostate cancer, is depresive and an addicts to pain medicine and Opium as a result, but he does look very fit still, so u tell me !?
The only thing that makes me think he is heading for worse is the Guards attitude and behaviour.
@ Afshin, yes but a decade is a long time for diseased-old individuals;
so the rumours of his being near his end are certainly
more founded today than 10 years ago And as you say
the haste + hard push- maneuvres of IRCG & its allies are also very
eloquent and noticeable.
you could find a great interview with the daugther of AN 's advisor about her movie; despite of her father's stance, she belongs to green mouvement; elle est magnifique and so natural
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PR6shJzZ5Yw
I don't know if you agree with me , but it smells the end of AN
To all "fanatically pro people of Iran"...
A footnote to the IRGC and wealth distribution in the country, at least the richest men:
Abbas Vaez Tabbassi (head of the Imam Reza shrine aka Sugar daddy), Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi (Guardians council), Ali Jannati (the son), Mohsen Rezaie, Sadegh Mahsouli (Interior minister) etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Iranian_people_by_net_worth
One of Khomeini's famous sentences was: Beware of judgement day (faghat be ghiamat fekr konid). Now this is it in Islamic dialectics!
Arshama wow, graphic ! and these wealthy guys are even famous
on wiki! As for Judgement's day, it seems tailored for those you mentioned
wouldn't one think - the way they earned their little war-treasures in the
'nezam' and all...
Here's an interview with Kalhor about his daughter:
http://www.mehrnews.com/fa/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=964160
in the headline he says: "I have not spoken to my daughter in more than a year."
and there's a video of an interview with the daughter on facebook (and youbute as you've posted.)
@ Arshama
Here is another source showing where these looters are hiding their stolen treasures: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmT-qyXgoEY
@ Afshin
Prostate cancer? Good Lord, he now needs Viagra when they bring him 12-year old girls? Mullah on Viagra, LOL.
I have heard, through someone in the medical field that he has been suffering from lung cancer in the last couple of years. Whatever the nature of his malignancy, I hope to see his doctors start him on chemotherapy soon. With chemotherapy he will lose more than his whisker, he will get so sick after each chemo session, he begs to die. I would like to see him kept alive and suffering until he pays for every young life he has destroyed. I would like to see him dying of thousands death.
http://pajamasmedia.com/michaelledeen/2009/10/13/khamenei-said-to-be-in-coma/
Many rumors today that Khamanei became seriously ill over the weekend, activities have been cancelled etc. Have you been following this possible story? One source: http://peiknet.com/1388/06mehr/21/PAGE/38EHZAR.htm
@Scott, all Well if Mr SL passes away chances are it will make the headline
here too , but if he delays... here's a piece of the HuffPo worth to read (about
the sanction's rethorics and afferent hype)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/melody-moezzi/leave-punishing-iran-to-i_b_318129.html
and also this on iranian medias situation (from A.Djavadi RFE/RL)
http://www.irannewsdigest.com/2009/10/13/irans-media-could-make-it-happen-if-we-let-it/
We all know not to take twitter and individual tweeters as hard news, right? That said, http://twitter.com/oxfordgirl" rel="nofollow">@oxfordgirl's tweets tonight are largely about the Khamenei health rumors. Take it FWIW, but there's a bunch of smoke coming.