The Latest from Iran (19 October): Beyond Bombings, The Pressure on the Government

NEW Iran Snap Analysis: Mousavi’s Webcast Takes “National Unity” Beyond Politics
NEW Iran Discussion: The Bombings, Jundallah, and the US
NEW Video: Mousavi’s First Post-Election Webcast (18 October)
NEW Video: Larijani on The Bombings, Jundallah & The US (18 October)
Iran Newsflash: National Unity Plan Submitted to Supreme Leader

Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery
Video: Blame on Sunni Group Jundallah, US For Bombing
The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings

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1910 GMT: In case you're wondering why, after the initial media distractions (0825 and 1355 GMT), there were no updates on today's talks between Iran and the "5+1" powers over uranium enrichment....

Well, there was precious little to report, as all delegations stayed tight-lipped. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, offered some general encouragement, praising "a good meeting....We are off to a good start," but saying only that talks would resume Tuesday morning.

This was always the most likely outcome, since details of uranium enrichment and the logistics of transport and processing can be surprisingly complex. However, it appears that some of the international media were expecting the drama of either an agreement or a breakdown within hours, if not minutes. That foiled expectation produced the day's alternative high point, the tragi-comedy of CNN's Matthew Chance sinking from excitement into chilly whimpering:

1. just did first live shot....talks not even started yet, but lot of anticipation
2. ok talks finally begun
3. gonna do live right now
4. freezing out here...
5. jeez..all day silence... now the talks have broken up....

1840 GMT: Clerical Hope. Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, meeting members of the Qom branch of the “Green Path of Hope”, has said different views should not lead to division and should be resolved through dialogue and negotiation. He asked, however, how one can speak to a Government that calls people agents of traitors and foreigners and that insults the families of martyred heroes. (English summary on Mousavi Facebook site)

1815 GMT: Khamenei Speaks (or At Least His Official Site Does). Back from an academic break to find the official statement from the Supreme Leader on the Sunday bombings: "The Islamic system shall not withhold any energy to defend the region and the people" against the terrorists and enemies "backed by arrogant governments".

1555 GMT: Supreme Leader Speaks? Reuters reports, from Press TV, that Ayatollah Khamenei has said that Iran will "punish" those responsible for Sunday's bombings and that enemies "can't harm the unity" amongst Iranians. It is unclear, however, whether the Supreme Leader's statement was in a message on his website or in a public appearance.

1545 GMT: Political Terms. We have been referring to Jundallah in the last 48 hours as a "Sunni group", but my impression is that a more accurate description would be "Baluch insurgent group", reflecting the regional emphasis of its objectives. Any comments most welcome.

1505 GMT: We have moved our snap analysis of Mir Hossein Mousavi's webcast on "National Unity" to a separate entry.

1435 GMT: Here They (the Revolutionary Guard and the "Western" Media) Go Again. A predictable if ridiculous escalation in the Iran v. US narrative. The commander of the Revolutionary Guard, General Jafari, makes his comments to Iranian journalists denouncing the US, Israel, and Pakistan in Sunday's bombings by Jundallah and promises to "retaliate" (see 0850 GMT). Reuters turns Jafari not only into the Ahmadinejad Government but all of Iran, as in its headline, "Iran Threatens Britain and US After Guard Bombing".  The Guardian gives a token nod to Islamabad but does no other reporting beyond Reuters' declaration with its  "Iran blames Pakistan and west for deadly suicide bombing: Iran vows revenge".

None of the "Western" journalists, to our knowledge, take any notice of last night's Cabinet meeting, which distanced itself from criticism of the US. Indeed, no one seems to bother to ask, "If Iran really blames the US for this act, why is it negotiating with Washington at the Vienna talks today?"

1355 GMT: A Non-Threat. Let's hope the Western press don't swallow this (frankly ridiculous) media bait on today's enrichment talks. Press TV is featuring the declaration, from "a source close to the meetings", "Iran Rejects 'Direct Talks' with France in Vienna".

Since Iran is not speaking directly to France but to the "5+1" powers, this is the reddest of red herrings having no significance whatsoever.

1345 GMT: Montazeri E-Mails the BBC. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has responded to a series of questions from the BBC on the Iranian Government and the Islamic Regime. After a rather fatuous start, "What is your view of claims that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in contact with the Hidden Imam and that his government is working for the return of the Mahdi?", the interview produces Montazeri's declaration, "Due to the short-sightedness, ineptitude and lack of wisdom, as well as arrogance and neglect of the demands of the majority of the people by a small inefficient minority, many of the initial ideals of the revolution have not been fulfilled." And he repeats his warning to the Supreme Leader:

As, in my view, the government will not achieve legitimacy without the support of the people, and as the necessary and obligatory condition for the legitimacy of the ruler is his popularity and the people's satisfaction with him; therefore, the present dissatisfaction - which is unfortunately increasing - will have a direct bearing on the legitimacy of the ruling establishment, unless the wiser figures in the nation can think of a solution by changing the current policies, and can remove the causes of the dissatisfaction of the majority of the people, and deal with the people with kindness, mercy, compassion and humility.

1315 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have each issued statements condemning Sunday's bombings.

1230 GMT: Another Post-Election Prison Sentence. Hedayat Aghaei, a senior member of the Kargozaran Party, has been sentenced to five years in prison for "disrupting the public order by provoking people to riot, propagating against the Islamic republic...and acting against national security”.

The twist in the tale is that Kargozaran has been seen more as a party linked to Hashemi Rafsanjani, raising the question of how much this is a symbolic move against the former President.

1045 GMT: Where is Khamenei? At the risk of re-igniting rumours and speculation, a question: is it unusual for no statement or appearance from the Supreme Leader given the death toll from yesterday's bombings in Sistan-Baluchestan?

1040 GMT: Hammihan News reports that journalist Masoud Bastani, detained in early July, has been sentenced to six years in prison.

0850 GMT: The Government's Disarray Continues. President Ahmadinejad may want to get a hold of his Revolutionary Guards commander, General Mohammad Ali Jafari. Jafari has upset the Cabinet's attempts to damp down talk of US-first responsibility for the Sunday bombings, telling journalists that Washington and Israel are behind the attack and claiming links of Jundallah head Abdolmalek Rigi with US and Pakistani intelligence services.

0840 GMT: The Pakistani Government has denied any link to Sunday's bombing in southeastern Iran. "Pakistan is not involved in terrorist activities ... we are striving to eradicate this menace," Foreign Ministry Spokesman Abdul Basit told the Daily Times newspaper .

Pakistani President Asif Zardari has called Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to offer his condolences and reaffirm Pakistan’s commitment to fighting extremists.

0825 GMT: As the technical discussions between Iran and the "5+1" powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) open in Vienna, Tehran is throwing up a lot of chaff to divert the media. Following yesterday's assertion that Iran was not looking for third-party enrichment but would seek to buy high-enriched uranium from the US and other countries, a spokesman for Iran's nuclear energy authority declared this morning, "If the talks do not bring about Iran's desired result ... we will start to further enrich uranium ourselves."

Don't be distracted. The main proposal on the table is still the US-developed plan, after Iranian signals in June, for 80 percent of Iran's low-enriched uranium to be processed to 19.75 percent in Russia. (Here's our reminder of the details of the plan and negotiations.) That is the message between the lines of this report from Press TV, under the cover of "local enrichment", "The United States is considering ways to officially announce that it has agreed to Iran's demand to locally enrich uranium, sources say. The US has held private meetings with its European allies in order to inform them about the decision."

0815 GMT: EA's Mr  Smith and Chris Emery met up last night for a chat about the Sunday bombing, Jundallah, and the allegations of US involvement. The outcome is in a separate entry.

0725 GMT: The effects of yesterday's bombings in southeastern Iran still resonate, with people inside and outside the Government trying to assess the political as well as "security" effects. The immediate impression is that the regime is in a bit of disarray, both from the shock of losing six senior Revolutionary Guard commanders and from the symbolic significance of a suicide attack inside Iran.

The immediate reaction of the Revolutionary Guard and, more interestingly, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani (see separate video) was to blame "foreign elements" such as the US Government for the attacks, but this only caused further political complications. With an Iranian delegation meeting American counterparts and representative of the other "5+1" countries today for technical talks on uranium enrichment, the aggressive line risked a breakdown of engagement and, thus, the threat of harsher economic sanctions on Iran.

So the Ahmadinejad Cabinet, reviewing the situation last night, re-focused Tehran's strategy. blaming Pakistan and pressuring it to co-operate in the pursuit of Jundallah, the insurgent group blamed for the bombings. Given the complexity of Pakistani politics and its own tangled internal situation, that pressure is unlikely to lead to a resolution in the near-future.

But this is the only start of the bombings' political effects.

No doubt the Government will gather itself to put the attacks within the context of post-election "disturbances" by the opposition, but this is not the easiest of propositions. Jundullah is a political light-year away from the nature and content of the Green movement, and of course no one in the opposition is going to offer any public sympathy for violence against Iranian officials or the military, even the Revolutionary Guard.

So, while Ahmadinejad and advisors try to re-align the security situation, internal politics, and their international manoeuvres, there is a space for others to take advantage. And, indeed, yesterday's "other" events may prove more significant than the Baluchestan bombing. The revelation that the National Unity Plan has now gone to the Supreme Leader for consideration (see separate entry) establishes that, despite all the pressure from Ahmadinejad supporters to contain and even sabotage the Plan, a cross-section of groups --- and, yes, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani --- have persisted. We are still in the dark about the details of the Plan, but it has long been clear that its proposals for system reform, first and foremost in the short-term, will put limits and possibly pressure on Ahmadinejad.

So it is far more than notable that Mir Hossein Mousavi made his own intervention yesterday, for the first time using an Internet interview (see separate video) to set out his political vision and call on the Iranian people to persist in their efforts for change. Most importantly for now, he opened by aligning himself with the National Unity Plan while, at the same time, encouraging the Green movement to use "virtual media" to ensure its voice was heard.

Comments

[Catherine]

RE: 0825 ... The main proposal on the table is still the US-developed plan, after Iranian signals in June, for 80 percent of Iran’s low-enriched uranium to be processed to 19.75 percent in Russia. (Here’s our reminder of the details of the plan and negotiations.

Actually, this third-party enrichment idea has been out there for much longer than last May-June, and it was apparently Russian-developed:

"It is not the first time that Moscow has offered a helping hand in resolving the Iranian nuclear dispute. Three years ago Russia proposed creating a joint company which would have enriched Iran’s uranium on its soil, but back then Tehran did not seize upon the initiative.
'In the past, Iranians several times accepted offers - for example, from the Russian Federation - to enrich uranium on Russian soil, but then they suddenly refused to do so,' Vladimir Sotnikov from the Institute of World Economy and International Relations told RT.

The most serious problem with Iran, Sotnikov says, is that they would 'very much like to enrich uranium by themselves, on their own soil.' "
http://russiatoday.com/Top_News/2009-10-02/russia-enrich-iranian-uranium.html

Are we to assume that Iran simply hasn't been able to do the job itself in the interim and is now finally forced to accept this long-standing offer because their 20% enriched uranium will run out next year? Not much of a 'coup' for the Obama administration or the current P5+1 talks, is it - or am I missing something?

[Megan]

Catherine,

I do not think you are missing anything. Obama has a few domestic challenges that are not going well for him and he needed a win on the international scene. Nuke talk with Iran was the low hanging fruit. As for Moscow, they stand to benefit and turn it into gold whichever direction the nuke goes, third party enrichment, sanctions or even military strike. Khrushchev once said Iran was a rotting apple; they wait until it falls from the tree. And it did. They are in Iran with both hands in the candy jar without firing a bullet.

[Afshin]

The Main question at the moment regarding Iran should be, why this bombing took place NOW?

What does this lead to and and who would benefit from that?

[Scott Lucas]

Catherine,

You are right to note this. I think the key shift was that in June Iran decided it would discuss 3rd-party enrichment, for the technical reasons you note and possibly for political considerations. I do think that it was opportunity for those in Obama Administration who prefer engagement to get advantage over their bureaucratic rivals, not as much a "coup" as a way out of the box that US got itself into over relations with Iran.

S.

[xerxes]

@afshin

The timing is suspicious, in regards to the rumours about SL`s health.
my thoughts;
1) there are some truth in SL health rumours, he might be close to death, so they`ve taken the fight to a new level(hashemi vs guards), if so, this bombing would not be the last we see, it will only get worse.

2) Jundullah is reported to be backed by CIA, which I believe to be true, they`ve been trying to destabilize the Iranian regime for a while, and this was a good time to strike, plus they hit sort of high-value targets.

what you think afshin?

[Pedestrian]

This is a translation of both Mousavi and Karoubi's letters in response to the bombings:

http://www.sidewalklyrics.com/?p=1933

[Scott Lucas]

Pedestrian,

As always, thanks so much for the great work.

S.

[Arshama]

Imho Jundullah's bombing is a direct response to the execution of their members two or three months ago. Its destabilizing effect should not be exaggerated, Sistan and Baluchistan province has always been a rough area for the regime, and battles with local drug mafias continue. On the other hand it is one of the most neglected areas in Iran, where state corruption has double negative effects.
The intriguing question is how the suicide bomber could get near high ranking IRGC officials? Sazegara speculated about some insider informations from the Pasdaran.
In any case a majority of Iranians refuses violence and terrorist actions as a means of political battle, especially with regard to Iraq and Afghanistan. Very likely peaceful protests will continue.

[Pedestrian]

the leader's office released a letter. It's not an appearance.

[mahasti]

Scot -
Re Jundallah, this article http://bit.ly/4lgidw in Welt Online has some good info on the group.
About terminology:
Being Baluchi and Sunni is what identifies them as a minority in Iran. But it's the fact that they call themselves "God's Brigade" (w/ their Talibanese ways--beheadings, suicide bombings) that distinguishes them from other minorities. So, I agree with you that the term Baluchi insurgent group is a better description of the brand.

[Bijan]

What is most interesting to me in the responses out of Iran over the past 24 hours or so is the "ping pong" dialogue from within the regime. IRG statements versus Cabinet's light retraction of blame against the US to shift towards Pakistan followed by the SL's comments which one could easily say implicitly put the blame back to the US. Just another fact pattern in the long dialogue by many, including EA and its readers posting on this site, of the disunity among the establishment.

[Bijan]

Forgot to add Larijani to the mix above as well.

[Scott Lucas]

Mahasti,

Much appreciated....

S.

[Arshama]

Nice article from Times Online, quoting an Iranian leader of an underground cell, who recently fled the country: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6881625.ece
According to him, AN will not survive his four year presidency term, especially for eonomic reasons.
And here some impressions from green flashmobs at Frankfurt Book Fair, visiting the regime's stand: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93J-f7SnSCM