The Latest from Iran (31 October): Karroubi to March on 13 Aban

NEW Iran: Mousavi Statement for 13 Aban Demonstrations (31 October)
Iran: Why is Israel Now Endorsing the Enrichment Deal?
Iran: Human Rights is a Problem…in the US and Europe
Video: Tonight “Allahu Akhbars” at Sharif University
More Time, Please: Ahmadinejad’s Legitimacy and Iran’s Nuclear Talks
Latest from Iran (30 October): Now to the Real Contest

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

2040 GMT: It's Official: Bring It On. First we had Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement, now we have Mehdi Karroubi's signal that he will be joining the crowds on 13 Aban. The cleric has promised further details soon but indicated that he will be joining students at the "Polytechnic" in Tehran. This may refer to Amir Kabir University, although earlier chatter said Karroubi would be going to Sharif University.

2020 GMT: Handing Down "Justice". The deputy head of Iran's judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, has announced that sentences for 50 post-election detainees have been issued. Some detainees are appealing the verdicts, and Raeesi urged colleagues to speed up the processing of the cases.

For Raeesi, it is clear, has made his mind: “Those who have proposed the elections were fraudulent and created doubt in the public’s mind have undoubtedly committed a grave crime and naturally will have to answer for the crime they have committed.”

1930 GMT: We've now posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement welcoming the 13 Aban (4 November) demonstrations (see 1200 and 1215 GMT). The declaration is a spirited presentation of and for the Green movement in the context of the history of 13 Aban, Ayatollah Khomeini, and the Islamic Revolution.

And it is also a spirited criticism of Ahmadinejad's negotiations over the nuclear programme with the United States and other countries, accusing the President of selling out Iran for the sake of his personal position: "Today, it appears that a large proportion of the product of Iran’s nuclear program, which has caused much chaos and brought a number of sanctions for the people, must be handed to another country, in hopes that they will be kind enough to offer us some fuel later on.

1740 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has met with members of the Central Council of the Islamic Association of Tehran University and Tehran Medical Sciences. Khatami warned that surveillance into personal affairs of people is not allowed even in the cases of those who do not believe in the Establishment or in God, as long as they do not use weapons.

The former President emphasised that the Green movement is against violence but in the opposite side there are some who only think and act violently. Khatami said it must first be accepted that there is a crisis in the society, and then one can find the solution; if there are mistakes in analysing the current situation, there will be more problems in the future.

1730 GMT: Morteza Alviri, Mehdi Karroubi’s representative in the joint Karroubi-Mousavi committee formed to investigate prison abuse cases, was released from prison on bail this afternoon.

There is confusion, however, over Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution who has been illegally detained since June. It was reported that Nabavi had been released, but this has been denied by his family, who say he is still in hospital after surgery last month.

1405 GMT: Alef News carries a purported interview with mathematics student Mahmoud Vahidnia, who challenged the Supreme Leader with a series of questions on Wednesday. Vahidnia denies that he was arrested after the incident.

1340 GMT: The reformist cleric Abdollah Nouri has visited Mohammad Ghoochani, the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper released yesterday after more than four months in detention.

1215 GMT: How Not to Report Breaking News. Reuters summarises the Mousavi statement, "Opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi appeared to urge his supporters on Saturday to take part in rallies next week marking the 30th anniversary of the U.S. embassy takeover by radical students in Tehran."

Appears? Yes, in the same way that the Pope "appears" to be Catholic and many students "appear" to be concerned about the Iranian Government. And nice touch by the news service to frame 13 Aban as just an extension of "radical students" who took Americans hostage in 1979.

1200 GMT: We return from a break to find that Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a statement, his 14th of the post-election crisis, ahead of the 13 Aban (4 November) demonstrations. The statement is a rallying call, praising students for their determination and encouraging them to remain strong for "the Greenest day of the year". Mousavi stands against extremism, as he declares that the "Green path" is the "rational way".

0935 GMT: Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad is not going to be deflected from his strategy of continued engagement as a sign of the acceptance of the legitimacy of Iran's Government. He told veterans today that "the best way forward" for the "West" was "co-operation with the Iranian nation".

0855 GMT: A gentle morning in Iranian politics, so we've been working on other stories from the role of money in US politics to the latest on Israel-Turkey relations as well as an item on Iran's condemnation of the US, Canada, and Europe for human rights violations.

There are increasingly interesting developments on Iran's nuclear talks and US-Iranian relations, however.

Our suspicion about Ali Larijani's renewed attack on Washington for its supposed involvement in the recent suicide bombing in southeastern Iran --- this is a tactic to challenge the Ahmadinejad Government's continued discussions with the US on nuclear issues --- is reinforced by  statements from other high-profile conservative and principlist legislators. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Committee, repeated his objection from earlier this week:

We are completely opposed to the proposal on delivering uranium with 3.5 percent enrichment in exchange for uranium with 20 percent enrichment. There is no guarantee they would give us fuel with 20 percent enrichment in exchange for our delivered LEU. We have deep mistrust in relation to the Westerners.

Kazem Jalali, another key member of the committee, declared, "The demand that we should deliver all enriched nuclear material to other countries so that they would supply Tehran's fuel needs is completely out of the question."

Andrew Lee Butters of Time magazine has a good overview article picking up on the "storm of criticism from across the Iranian political spectrum", highlighting the remarks of Mir Hossein Mousavi as well as the Government's Parliamentary challengers:

Conservatives had accused moderates of treason over previous attempts to reach a nuclear agreement with the West; now the country's embattled opposition leaders are getting their own back, perhaps fearful that rapprochement between the West and Ahmadinejad would reinforce the regime that has cracked down hard since the election.

The Latest from Iran (16 October): Rumours and Drama, Khamenei and Karroubi

NEW A Brilliant Neo-Con Idea: Crippling Iran to Save It
NEW Iran: A Beginner’s Guide to the Economy, Past and Present
Iran: Karroubi Responds to Government Threats “Bring. It. On.”
Iran: The Latest on Mehdi Karroubi
The Latest from Iran (15 October): Restricting the Movement

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

1945 GMT: The English-language website of Mowj-e-Sabz has a short summary of the Mousavi-Khatami meeting (1500 GMT).

1830 GMT: After a four-day absence, fueling speculation of a connection to the ill health of the Supreme Leader (0645 GMT), the newspaper Kayhan has reappeared today.

1515 GMT: The Battle Goes On. Yesterday Karroubi made clear his intention to stand firm against Government threats of arrests. So today the Government reiterated the warnings. The deputy head of Iran's judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, has repeated to the Islamic Republic News Agency that the consideration of charges is "very serious".

1500 GMT: Mousavi and Khatami Meet. Parleman News summarises a discussion between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, who asserted that the Iranian nation will not be diverted from its course by "force and pressure". The post-election movement had awakened Iran to the blessings of Islamic Revolution, especially its path toward justice, freedom, independence, and honour, and it would not deviate from its attachment to those ideals."

1345 GMT: Nice response to today's Friday Prayers on Twitter: "Hey Jannati, thanks for the free publicity! You told WAY more ppl about 13 Aban [4 November demonstrations] than the Greens could!"

1255 GMT: HomyLafayette has posted a summary of Ayatollah Jannati's Friday Prayers (see 1015 GMT):

"Jannati warned Greens against trying to exploit anniversary of the US Embassy takeover, 4 November [13 Aban]. He said that their schemes...will be neutralized. Some people who are tools of others want to show their American and Israeli natures on 4 November. If judiciary and security apparatus treat protesters with leniency, they are traitors to Islam and the Revolution."

1235 GMT: In the Midst of Uncertainty, Comedy. Fars News' fumbling attempt to turn the Khamenei health rumours into high evidence of the foreign-directed velvet revolution is book-ended by Michael Ledeen's latest entry onto the stage.

Ledeen's feigned modesty, "I have been given more credit than is absolutely necessary," is belied by his failure to acknowledge the true source of the rumour --- the Peiknet report of doctors at Khamenei's house --- and his surprise at the supposed outcome of his words, "It follows that I effectively shut down the Tehran Bazaar!"

What is most entertaining, however, if contributing nothing at all to knowledge are more Ledeen claims into the air --- "Not only was the Bazaar closed, but there seems to be a run on staples, as people stock up against the possibility of unsettled times" --- and this far-fetched explanation (from "Iranian friends") of the most prominent denial of the rumours so far: "The people at Tabnak believed I had it right, and they put it up in order to say “hey look at this! The Americans know our most secret secrets.”

1055 GMT: Khamenei's Health Rumours? Blame the Velvet Revolution. OK, we've got a long, convoluted denial of the health scare story, courtesy of Fars News. According to their "analyst", this is all part of the post-election scheme, similar to undermine the regime (the Government's bogeyman, financier George Soros, even makes an appearance). And the author is pointed in drawing a comparison with the rumours in 2007 of Khamenei's demise.

1015 GMT: Friday Prayer Update. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, using the analogy of Imam Sadegh, the 6th Imam, has declared that the issues of security in the Islamic Republic are due to "a lack of respect".

0900 GMT: Bad news for John Hannah, the former advisor to Dick Cheney who is trying to "help" Iran's people by crippling the economy (0845 GMT). China just made it clearer than clear that sanctions are not on the agenda. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, at a Thursday press conference his guest, Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, declared, "The Sino-Iranian relationship has witnessed rapid development, as the two countries' leaders have had frequent exchanges, and cooperation in trade and energy has widened and deepened."

0845 GMT: We've posted two special analyses this morning: our newest correspondent, Mohammad Khiabani, introduces readers to the issues in the Iranian economy, while Maryam from Keeping the Change takes on the former Bush Administration official who is advocating harsh economic sanctions "on behalf of Iran's people".

0645 GMT: At one point yesterday, caught up in the rumours of the Supreme Leader's illness or death, I was inappropriately reminded of a classic sketch from the US show Saturday Night Live, in which newscaster Chevy Chase would sombrely inform the audience, "Spain's Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead." (Trust me, I'm looking for the video clip.)

Well, Franco is still dead and Ayatollah Khamenei is still not dead, as far as we know. There are indications that something is amiss in Iran: the "hard-line" daily Kayhan has not published since Monday, the English-language Tehran Times has been silent since Tuesday. The Supreme Leader's official sites, leader.ir and khamenei.ir, have not denied the rumours. Leader.ir has been quiet for a week and khamenei.ir refers the reader to the one Iranian newspaper responding to the rumours: Tabnak denounces the US activist Michael Ledeen (who, just as a reminder, was not the original source for the current round of Khamenei rumours; that honour goes to Peiknet, a website associated with "left" Iranian exiles).

The one counter-indication is a note on the Facebook site run by Khamenei supporters, which claims the Supreme Leader was present Wednesday at the rites for Imam Sadegh. If that was true, however, one would expect to have seen the news elsewhere in the Iranian press. So here's our own position: we're on watch, but making no conclusions. If there is no official denial by the end of today, then we will begin thinking that there may be substance to the original Peiknet report.This is not that Khamenei has died, but that he is too ill to be in public.

Part of our caution on the Supreme Leader story is because it is obscuring political developments which are both 100% confirmed and 100% significant. The headline event yesterday was Mehdi Karroubi's defiant response to the Government threats to arrest him. He not only refused to withdraw his allegations of the system's abuses; he promised a doubling and re-doubling of evidence if he was charged.

The initial read is easy: Karroubi will not lie down. Just as in August, when he was threatened with court action, just as in September, when he was told by Ali Larijani to be quiet, the cleric has responded by making himself visible and heard. And this is being achieved despite the Government's 24/7 surveillance on Karroubi and his house.

The more difficult read is whether this marks another surge in the opposition movement. That, as we noted earlier this week, cannot rest on Karroubi alone. Hashemi Rafsanjani appears to be in a phase of fighting for his personal position, but Mir Hossein Mousavi joined Karroubi's most recent push, the meeting of last Saturday. Will he make an appearance this weekend, despite his own difficulties in moving (and even talking) under the regime's gaze? And what does the Green Wave take from yesterday's remarks of the man who some are calling "Obi-Wan Karroubi" (Yes, really.)?

The demonstrations of 13 Aban (4 November) are 19 days away.