The Latest from Iran (16 October): Rumours and Drama, Khamenei and Karroubi

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1945 GMT: The English-language website of Mowj-e-Sabz has a short summary of the Mousavi-Khatami meeting (1500 GMT).

1830 GMT: After a four-day absence, fueling speculation of a connection to the ill health of the Supreme Leader (0645 GMT), the newspaper Kayhan has reappeared today.

1515 GMT: The Battle Goes On. Yesterday Karroubi made clear his intention to stand firm against Government threats of arrests. So today the Government reiterated the warnings. The deputy head of Iran's judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, has repeated to the Islamic Republic News Agency that the consideration of charges is "very serious".

1500 GMT: Mousavi and Khatami Meet. Parleman News summarises a discussion between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, who asserted that the Iranian nation will not be diverted from its course by "force and pressure". The post-election movement had awakened Iran to the blessings of Islamic Revolution, especially its path toward justice, freedom, independence, and honour, and it would not deviate from its attachment to those ideals."

1345 GMT: Nice response to today's Friday Prayers on Twitter: "Hey Jannati, thanks for the free publicity! You told WAY more ppl about 13 Aban [4 November demonstrations] than the Greens could!"

1255 GMT: HomyLafayette has posted a summary of Ayatollah Jannati's Friday Prayers (see 1015 GMT):

"Jannati warned Greens against trying to exploit anniversary of the US Embassy takeover, 4 November [13 Aban]. He said that their schemes...will be neutralized. Some people who are tools of others want to show their American and Israeli natures on 4 November. If judiciary and security apparatus treat protesters with leniency, they are traitors to Islam and the Revolution."

1235 GMT: In the Midst of Uncertainty, Comedy. Fars News' fumbling attempt to turn the Khamenei health rumours into high evidence of the foreign-directed velvet revolution is book-ended by Michael Ledeen's latest entry onto the stage.

Ledeen's feigned modesty, "I have been given more credit than is absolutely necessary," is belied by his failure to acknowledge the true source of the rumour --- the Peiknet report of doctors at Khamenei's house --- and his surprise at the supposed outcome of his words, "It follows that I effectively shut down the Tehran Bazaar!"

What is most entertaining, however, if contributing nothing at all to knowledge are more Ledeen claims into the air --- "Not only was the Bazaar closed, but there seems to be a run on staples, as people stock up against the possibility of unsettled times" --- and this far-fetched explanation (from "Iranian friends") of the most prominent denial of the rumours so far: "The people at Tabnak believed I had it right, and they put it up in order to say “hey look at this! The Americans know our most secret secrets.”

1055 GMT: Khamenei's Health Rumours? Blame the Velvet Revolution. OK, we've got a long, convoluted denial of the health scare story, courtesy of Fars News. According to their "analyst", this is all part of the post-election scheme, similar to undermine the regime (the Government's bogeyman, financier George Soros, even makes an appearance). And the author is pointed in drawing a comparison with the rumours in 2007 of Khamenei's demise.

1015 GMT: Friday Prayer Update. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, using the analogy of Imam Sadegh, the 6th Imam, has declared that the issues of security in the Islamic Republic are due to "a lack of respect".

0900 GMT: Bad news for John Hannah, the former advisor to Dick Cheney who is trying to "help" Iran's people by crippling the economy (0845 GMT). China just made it clearer than clear that sanctions are not on the agenda. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, at a Thursday press conference his guest, Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, declared, "The Sino-Iranian relationship has witnessed rapid development, as the two countries' leaders have had frequent exchanges, and cooperation in trade and energy has widened and deepened."

0845 GMT: We've posted two special analyses this morning: our newest correspondent, Mohammad Khiabani, introduces readers to the issues in the Iranian economy, while Maryam from Keeping the Change takes on the former Bush Administration official who is advocating harsh economic sanctions "on behalf of Iran's people".

0645 GMT: At one point yesterday, caught up in the rumours of the Supreme Leader's illness or death, I was inappropriately reminded of a classic sketch from the US show Saturday Night Live, in which newscaster Chevy Chase would sombrely inform the audience, "Spain's Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead." (Trust me, I'm looking for the video clip.)

Well, Franco is still dead and Ayatollah Khamenei is still not dead, as far as we know. There are indications that something is amiss in Iran: the "hard-line" daily Kayhan has not published since Monday, the English-language Tehran Times has been silent since Tuesday. The Supreme Leader's official sites, leader.ir and khamenei.ir, have not denied the rumours. Leader.ir has been quiet for a week and khamenei.ir refers the reader to the one Iranian newspaper responding to the rumours: Tabnak denounces the US activist Michael Ledeen (who, just as a reminder, was not the original source for the current round of Khamenei rumours; that honour goes to Peiknet, a website associated with "left" Iranian exiles).

The one counter-indication is a note on the Facebook site run by Khamenei supporters, which claims the Supreme Leader was present Wednesday at the rites for Imam Sadegh. If that was true, however, one would expect to have seen the news elsewhere in the Iranian press. So here's our own position: we're on watch, but making no conclusions. If there is no official denial by the end of today, then we will begin thinking that there may be substance to the original Peiknet report.This is not that Khamenei has died, but that he is too ill to be in public.

Part of our caution on the Supreme Leader story is because it is obscuring political developments which are both 100% confirmed and 100% significant. The headline event yesterday was Mehdi Karroubi's defiant response to the Government threats to arrest him. He not only refused to withdraw his allegations of the system's abuses; he promised a doubling and re-doubling of evidence if he was charged.

The initial read is easy: Karroubi will not lie down. Just as in August, when he was threatened with court action, just as in September, when he was told by Ali Larijani to be quiet, the cleric has responded by making himself visible and heard. And this is being achieved despite the Government's 24/7 surveillance on Karroubi and his house.

The more difficult read is whether this marks another surge in the opposition movement. That, as we noted earlier this week, cannot rest on Karroubi alone. Hashemi Rafsanjani appears to be in a phase of fighting for his personal position, but Mir Hossein Mousavi joined Karroubi's most recent push, the meeting of last Saturday. Will he make an appearance this weekend, despite his own difficulties in moving (and even talking) under the regime's gaze? And what does the Green Wave take from yesterday's remarks of the man who some are calling "Obi-Wan Karroubi" (Yes, really.)?

The demonstrations of 13 Aban (4 November) are 19 days away.

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The Latest from Iran (13 October): Government Threatens Karroubi

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2025 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has issued a thinly-veiled challenge to the Revolutionary Guard through another statement. Focusing on the abuses of the armed forces, he declares, "Some think that because they have guns they should exercise the power of their guns and use it everywhere. In any society that wants to be obedient, its armed forces should not be cruel but rather be compassionate and merciful."

2000 GMT: Remember how we started this morning with a letter from Hashemi Rafsanjani, criticising and warning about "false news" to discredit him? Well, consider this from Javan Online, a publication closely linked with the Revolutionary Guard, as reported by Tabnak:

"Since the inauguration of the 10th administration, I believe in its legitimacy. Presently Mr. [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad attends the Expediency Council meetings as president, with invitations signed by myself," Rafsanjani said in a meeting with Iranian political figures in favor of the national unity plan.

It's not surprising that Javan would put this story, whether or not it is accurate. What is surprising is that, in light of Rafsanjani's warning that the only reliable news about him would come either from his website or the offices of the Expediency Council, an important website like Tehran Bureau would reprint Javan's claim without reflection.

1850 GMT: Amidst a quiet domestic news day, we've picked up on the international story missed by most of the media, "Iran-US-Russia Deal on Enrichment, The Sequel".

1500 GMT: The Facebook page associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi has responded to the Government threats to take Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to court with the reminder, "In case of the arrest of any of the Green movement’s leaders, we will take to the streets from 'Revolution' to 'Freedom' Square. The network [will use] media mobilization (SMS, email, flyer, wall notices, posters, Internet) for raising widespread awareness until the emergence of the Green army . (English summary via Iran News Digest)

1250 GMT: Amidst a lull in political developments, and as part of our increasing attention to the economic context, we've posted a two-part video from Press TV examining (and ultimately selling) President Ahmadinejad's economic proposals.

0805 GMT: We've posted what I think may be one of the most revealing analyses from within Iran, written by Dr Mahmoud Reza Golshanpazhooh, on the country's international position, "Tehran’s Growing Confidence Against the Israeli Threat".

0655 GMT: According to Peykeiran, a fifth death sentence over post-election conflict and "subversion" has been handed out to a "Davoud Mir Ardebili". The report claims that Ardebili is not a monarchist, the allegation made against three other condemned men, but merely called a radio station to report union protests.

0650 GMT: Today's Puffing of the Chest. Brigadier General Hussein Salami, the deputy commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps says,"Unlike the wrong conception of the enemies, Iran is strong and invincible."

No further comment or meat-related jokes necessary.

0640 GMT: Watching the Economy. Press TV's website has a must-read story betraying nervousness over both Iran's economic situation and the politics around the headline measure, Ahmadinjead's proposed subsidy reform.

The story begins with apparent good news, with a fall in the annual inflation rate from 20.2 percent to 18.5 percent. However, the headline also notes, "Jobless Rate Soars", rising to 11.3 percent from 10.2 percent over the summer.

And here's the stinger of the piece: "Economists fear that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's subsidy reform plan, which aims to gradually cut energy and food subsidies, will hike up inflation. The Iranian parliament has approved the outline of the bill, but lawmakers are still at odds over the details of the plan."

Our initial reading of the push for subsidy cuts, with the impulse being the worsening budget situation of the Iran Government, was too narrow. There are good structural reasons to reform the system, though I am uncertain how much these factor into Ahmadinejad's calculations. Far more significant --- and provocative --- is the President's political scheme, taking some of the money saved from the cuts and distributing it to Iran's poorest people.

0620 GMT: Our starting point today will be a close eye on the next steps of two key figures, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mehdi Karroubi.

Rafsanjani surfaced yesterday to publish a letter via Iranian Labor News Agency, denying "false news" of a letter that he and Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi-Kani supposedly sent to Mir Hossein Mousavi on 28 September. We think this is a reference to the claimed "National Unity Plan", "revealed" by Fars News that day. At this point, however, Rafsanjani's step is a defensive move, fending off pressure from the Government and media who oppose him, rather than a major political step. We have an analysis and English translation of the letter in a separate entry.

The situation around Mehdi Karroubi is more dramatic. The Government threat to prosecute him, issued yesterday by two high-level officials, is a clear response --- showing nervousness as well as supposed strength --- to the resurgence of Karroubi's public statements, especially his Saturday meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi.

So, to be blunt, we're wondering, "Does Karroubi back down?", and we're thinking, "No." His response to the Government's ham-fisted warning, which following similar threats over the last two months --- may not come today, but I would look for a clear signal from the cleric by the weekend.

Meanwhile, a brief article in Peiknet has stoked the fire of rumours about the poor state of the Supreme Leader's health. The website claims that three doctors were summoned urgently to Ayatollah Khamenei's house and, after examining him, insisted that he cancel all public and Government meetings and stay at home, with only his family seeing him. To our knowledge, no other source has corroborated the Peiknet assertion.

Rumors that the Supreme Leader has cancer, specifically prostate cancer, have persisted for years --- our readers have discussed these in comments. For now, we'll keep watch, especially to see if Khamenei stays out of public view.