The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal

The Latest from Iran (18 October): Semi-Normal, Indeed - Khamenei, Bahari, & Hajjarian
Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery
Iran: The Supreme Leader Lives --- The Picture (17 October)
Iran: The Daily Show Tribute (Persian and English Versions)
A Brilliant Neo-Con Idea: Crippling Iran to Save It
Iran: A Beginner’s Guide to the Economy, Past and Present
The Latest from Iran (16 October): Rumours and Drama, Khamenei and Karroubi

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1855 GMT: We're taking a Saturday night off to recharge mental batteries. The discussion board should be buzzing all night, however --- take a look at the sharp-eyed comments on the separate entry about the Supreme Leader's pictures --- and your ideas and thoughts are invaluable to us.

Before we go, an apology. In another prominent entry today, I referred to the Persian language as "Farsi". This, of course, is an error, and I will endeavour not to repeat it. Thanks to readers who gently brought the mistake to my attention.

1850 GMT: The Government Fights On Over Detainees.
Mohammad Reza Mogheyseh, who became the head of the Karroubi-Mousavi special committee investigating prisoner abuse cases after the arrest of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti in September, was taken from his home and detained at 4 a.m. Mogheyseh is a well-known war veteran who has helped amputees and families of the dead.

http://www.kaleme.com/1388/07/25/klm-637

1810 GMT: Conservative Resurgence Against Ahmadinejad? The high-profile conservative member of Parliament, Ali Motahari, had been quiet recently after repeated complaints about the President during the summer. However, in an interview today he has said that conservatives should admit to the wrongdoings of Ahmadinejad, and considering the facts without prejudice and judging fairly.

Perhaps even more significantly, given talk of the National Unity Plan, Motahari complained that Ahmadinejad supporters are insisting that there should be no national unity unless “leaders of the conspiracy” admit to their mistakes and apologise to the people or even be prosecuted. Motahari insisted those supporters should consider that Ahmadinejad started the “conspiracy” with his remarks during the election campaign and in his “victory” speech. (English summary via Facebook page linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi)

1800 GMT: Reuters is reporting, from Iranian Labor News Agency, that Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari has been released on $300,000 bail.

1740 GMT: We've updated in the separate entry on the photographs of today's reported appearance of the Supreme Leader. Meanwhile, Press TV has brought out an English-language version of the meeting with the President of Senegal, focusing on Khamenei's call for support of "oppressed Palestinians".

1640 GMT: He's Alive! The Supreme Leader's website has poted the first picture of Ayatollah Khameini since the recent rumours of ill health. We've got the details in a separate entry.

1625 GMT: Salaam News reports that the weekly gathering of mothers and family members of victims of post-election violence, held in Laleh Park, was disrupted by police and security forces who used tear gas.

1545 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz and Rouydad claim that leading reformist politician Saeed Hajjarian has been given a five-year suspended prison sentence after four months in detention. The Iranian judiciary has not yet been confirmed the reports.

1415 GMT: After a four-day break, the English-language Tehran Times is publishing again, with stories such as Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's warning to his US counterpart Hillary Clinton, "Avoid ‘Useless Slogans’ Used in Bush Era".

1250 GMT: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty posts more details about those recently sentenced to death in Iran, including Hamed Rouhinejad. (Curiously, they report four rather than five condemned.)

1150 GMT: National Unity Plan Alive and Well? After days with little news of the Plan, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar has confirmed that he is on the panel working on the proposal. He told journalists, "Don't rush on reporting details," expressing confidence in the success of the initiative. The article from Aftab News claims that, although Government supporters have been hostile, the majority of Parliament supports the plan.

1140 GMT: A Sign of Conciliation? Tehran's police chief has called for unity and admitted that "the Basij [militia]'s image needs to be repaired". Perhaps most importantly, he has accepted street marches as long as they are peaceful.

The statement follows recent comments by Iran's police chief, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, that said demonstrations would be tolerated if they were within the law.

1130 GMT: News or Disinformation? Raja News, a fervent opponent of the Green movement, claims that supporters of Ayatollah Dastgheib, an equally vehement critic of the Government, stormed the office of the Friday Prayers committee in Fars Provine and beat a cleric who supports the Supreme Leader. The newspaper also features a statement from the "community and clergy" reiterating the electoral turnout of 85 percent and Ahmadinejad's tally of more than 24 million votes.

0935 GMT: Fars News, on its English-language site, has reiterated the denial by "Iran's diplomatic sources" of the rumours of the Supreme Leader's illness. The article is more shorter than the Farsi-language "analysis" posted on Friday (see yesterday's updates), linking the rumours to a Western campaign for velvet revolution.

Significantly, Fars refuses to note that it was an Iranian website, Peiknet, that posted the first report of Ayatollah Khamenei's health problems, instead pinning the rumour on a long-time bogeyman, Michael Ledeen. And, perhaps equally significantly, the denial still comes from relatively low-ranking Iranian officials --- the two are "on record", though not named in this article, are based in Armenia and Belarus.

0730 GMT: Now for the Government's Next Threat. A prosecutor has told the Islamic Republic News Agency that, after "several hundred" complaints from the public, Mir Hossein Mousavi may be brought before the Media Court to be punished.

0640 GMT: Press TV is intent on building up Iran's international stature today --- Iran sends special envoy to resolve crisis in Yemen, Jannati at Friday Prayers declares "Western powers have finally realized they cannot have the final say on Tehran's nuclear issue", Iran calls for war crimes trial of Israeli leaders. However, it does stray from this line for one economic story of note: "Iran's drug companies are facing a financial crisis due to unpaid debts of more than $300 million".

0625 GMT: A much quieter day so far. The chatter about the Supreme Leader's health has eased, and after a flurry of back-and-forth challenges between the Government, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mir Hossein Mousavi, no one has made any moves (though, if past experience is a guide, the battling could pick up this afternoon).

While life and politics can never be labelled normal in Iran after 12 June, there is a semblance of steady-as-she-goes today. Still, as a reader reminds us, even "semi-normal" qualified. Five post-election detainees remain on death row pending their appeals; a "deeply troubled" United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has now spoken on the issue through a report to the General Assembly: “The handling by authorities of the protests that followed has raised concerns about respect for freedom of expression, assembly and association, the use of force in policing demonstrations and the treatment of and due process afforded to detainees."

The Latest from Iran (16 October): Rumours and Drama, Khamenei and Karroubi

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1945 GMT: The English-language website of Mowj-e-Sabz has a short summary of the Mousavi-Khatami meeting (1500 GMT).

1830 GMT: After a four-day absence, fueling speculation of a connection to the ill health of the Supreme Leader (0645 GMT), the newspaper Kayhan has reappeared today.

1515 GMT: The Battle Goes On. Yesterday Karroubi made clear his intention to stand firm against Government threats of arrests. So today the Government reiterated the warnings. The deputy head of Iran's judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, has repeated to the Islamic Republic News Agency that the consideration of charges is "very serious".

1500 GMT: Mousavi and Khatami Meet. Parleman News summarises a discussion between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, who asserted that the Iranian nation will not be diverted from its course by "force and pressure". The post-election movement had awakened Iran to the blessings of Islamic Revolution, especially its path toward justice, freedom, independence, and honour, and it would not deviate from its attachment to those ideals."

1345 GMT: Nice response to today's Friday Prayers on Twitter: "Hey Jannati, thanks for the free publicity! You told WAY more ppl about 13 Aban [4 November demonstrations] than the Greens could!"

1255 GMT: HomyLafayette has posted a summary of Ayatollah Jannati's Friday Prayers (see 1015 GMT):

"Jannati warned Greens against trying to exploit anniversary of the US Embassy takeover, 4 November [13 Aban]. He said that their schemes...will be neutralized. Some people who are tools of others want to show their American and Israeli natures on 4 November. If judiciary and security apparatus treat protesters with leniency, they are traitors to Islam and the Revolution."

1235 GMT: In the Midst of Uncertainty, Comedy. Fars News' fumbling attempt to turn the Khamenei health rumours into high evidence of the foreign-directed velvet revolution is book-ended by Michael Ledeen's latest entry onto the stage.

Ledeen's feigned modesty, "I have been given more credit than is absolutely necessary," is belied by his failure to acknowledge the true source of the rumour --- the Peiknet report of doctors at Khamenei's house --- and his surprise at the supposed outcome of his words, "It follows that I effectively shut down the Tehran Bazaar!"

What is most entertaining, however, if contributing nothing at all to knowledge are more Ledeen claims into the air --- "Not only was the Bazaar closed, but there seems to be a run on staples, as people stock up against the possibility of unsettled times" --- and this far-fetched explanation (from "Iranian friends") of the most prominent denial of the rumours so far: "The people at Tabnak believed I had it right, and they put it up in order to say “hey look at this! The Americans know our most secret secrets.”

1055 GMT: Khamenei's Health Rumours? Blame the Velvet Revolution. OK, we've got a long, convoluted denial of the health scare story, courtesy of Fars News. According to their "analyst", this is all part of the post-election scheme, similar to undermine the regime (the Government's bogeyman, financier George Soros, even makes an appearance). And the author is pointed in drawing a comparison with the rumours in 2007 of Khamenei's demise.

1015 GMT: Friday Prayer Update. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, using the analogy of Imam Sadegh, the 6th Imam, has declared that the issues of security in the Islamic Republic are due to "a lack of respect".

0900 GMT: Bad news for John Hannah, the former advisor to Dick Cheney who is trying to "help" Iran's people by crippling the economy (0845 GMT). China just made it clearer than clear that sanctions are not on the agenda. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, at a Thursday press conference his guest, Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, declared, "The Sino-Iranian relationship has witnessed rapid development, as the two countries' leaders have had frequent exchanges, and cooperation in trade and energy has widened and deepened."

0845 GMT: We've posted two special analyses this morning: our newest correspondent, Mohammad Khiabani, introduces readers to the issues in the Iranian economy, while Maryam from Keeping the Change takes on the former Bush Administration official who is advocating harsh economic sanctions "on behalf of Iran's people".

0645 GMT: At one point yesterday, caught up in the rumours of the Supreme Leader's illness or death, I was inappropriately reminded of a classic sketch from the US show Saturday Night Live, in which newscaster Chevy Chase would sombrely inform the audience, "Spain's Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead." (Trust me, I'm looking for the video clip.)

Well, Franco is still dead and Ayatollah Khamenei is still not dead, as far as we know. There are indications that something is amiss in Iran: the "hard-line" daily Kayhan has not published since Monday, the English-language Tehran Times has been silent since Tuesday. The Supreme Leader's official sites, leader.ir and khamenei.ir, have not denied the rumours. Leader.ir has been quiet for a week and khamenei.ir refers the reader to the one Iranian newspaper responding to the rumours: Tabnak denounces the US activist Michael Ledeen (who, just as a reminder, was not the original source for the current round of Khamenei rumours; that honour goes to Peiknet, a website associated with "left" Iranian exiles).

The one counter-indication is a note on the Facebook site run by Khamenei supporters, which claims the Supreme Leader was present Wednesday at the rites for Imam Sadegh. If that was true, however, one would expect to have seen the news elsewhere in the Iranian press. So here's our own position: we're on watch, but making no conclusions. If there is no official denial by the end of today, then we will begin thinking that there may be substance to the original Peiknet report.This is not that Khamenei has died, but that he is too ill to be in public.

Part of our caution on the Supreme Leader story is because it is obscuring political developments which are both 100% confirmed and 100% significant. The headline event yesterday was Mehdi Karroubi's defiant response to the Government threats to arrest him. He not only refused to withdraw his allegations of the system's abuses; he promised a doubling and re-doubling of evidence if he was charged.

The initial read is easy: Karroubi will not lie down. Just as in August, when he was threatened with court action, just as in September, when he was told by Ali Larijani to be quiet, the cleric has responded by making himself visible and heard. And this is being achieved despite the Government's 24/7 surveillance on Karroubi and his house.

The more difficult read is whether this marks another surge in the opposition movement. That, as we noted earlier this week, cannot rest on Karroubi alone. Hashemi Rafsanjani appears to be in a phase of fighting for his personal position, but Mir Hossein Mousavi joined Karroubi's most recent push, the meeting of last Saturday. Will he make an appearance this weekend, despite his own difficulties in moving (and even talking) under the regime's gaze? And what does the Green Wave take from yesterday's remarks of the man who some are calling "Obi-Wan Karroubi" (Yes, really.)?

The demonstrations of 13 Aban (4 November) are 19 days away.