The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today's Bombings

NEW Iran Newsflash: National Unity Plan Submitted to Supreme Leader
NEW Video: Blame on Sunni Group Jundallah, US For Bombing
NEW Iran: Khamenei, Bahari, Hajjarian, and the "Semi-Normal"
NEW Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery
Iran: The Supreme Leader Lives — The Picture (17 October)
The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal

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2000 GMT: The official death toll from today's bombing is now 42.

1950 GMT: Coincidence or Sabotage? A passenger train travelling from Tehran to Kerman derailed today, and a tea factory in Golestan burned to the ground.

1925 GMT: Mehr News is reporting that the explosion near the Oil Ministry in Tehran was from a faulty air tank.

Islamic Republic News Agency, repeating the air tank story, is reporting one person killed and 17 injured.

1910 GMT: Switching the Foreign "Enemy" from the US to Pakistan. This morning, when the Revolutionary Guard was claiming Washington was behind the bombings, we wrote, "Watch carefully to see if the Ahmadinejad Government maintains this line, which could derail 'engagement'."

There's a big clue tonight that Ahmadinejad has chosen engagement over the blame-US line. Fars News reports that the Iranian Cabinet has demanded that Pakistan bring forward those who carried out the bombings, a positioning reinforced by the summoning of the Pakistani Ambassador to the Foreign Ministry. There is no mention of the US anywhere in the Fars story.

1900 GMT: There are reports of an explosion near the Oil Ministry in Tehran.

1830 GMT: The Death Toll Rises.... The afternoon number of 31 dead from this morning's bombing will rise, though it is uncertain how much. Fars News reports that 35 victims have already been identified.

1625 GMT: National Unity Plan. It's alive, and it apparently has been submitted to the Supreme Leader (who is apparently also alive) for consideration. We've posted a separate entry on the newsflash.

1535 GMT: Iran's Nuclear Programme: This is Not Good. If the following report from Press TV is accurate, Iran's nuclear negotiators --- on the eve of the Vienna technical talks --- just laughed in the face of the "West": "A team of Iranian experts heads for the Austrian capital to discuss the terms of a deal to buy highly-enriched uranium without exchanging any of Tehran's low-enriched uranium."

The deal discussed quietly since June between Iran and other countries, including the US, is precisely for Tehran to transfer 80 percent of its low-enriched uranium to third countries for enrichment. Simply adding highly-enriched supplies to Iran's existing low-enriched stock has no appeal for Washington, which sees third-party enrichment as a way to ensure that Tehran stays below the 20 percent enrichment maximum for "civilian" uses of uranium.


1530 GMT: Another Suspended Sentence. A day after the five-year suspended sentence for Saeed Hajjarian, the same judgement has been handed down on Shahab Tabatabai, Head of Campaign 88 for young supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami.

1430 GMT: Now Back to Politics. Mir Hossein Mousavi, writing on his website Kalameh (English summary on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty) after a meeting with relatives of detained former Deputy Foreign Minister Mohsen Aminzadeh, says he will persist in efforts for reform in spite of the Government's attempts to suppress post-election protests:

Our people are not rioters. Reform will continue as long as people's demands are not met. Keeping these people in jail is meaningless. They should be released as soon as possible.

1340 GMT: On the international front, Fars News reports that Iran's delegation to the technical talks in Vienna tomorrow will include Ali Asghar Soltanieh, the Iranian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Hamid Reza Asghari, deputy head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation, and Mehdi Khaniki, another IAEO chief executive. However, Ali Akhbar Salehi, the head of the IAEO is not going.

1330 GMT: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has also taken the line that Washington carries responsibility for today's bombings, "We consider this recent terrorist act to be the result of the U.S. actions and this is a sign of their enmity."

To repeat: US and Iranian officials are due to meet tomorrow in the next step of engagement, technical talks on Iran's uranium enrichment programme.

1240 GMT: The Islamic Republic News Agency is featuring a message from President Ahmadinejad, offering his condolences to the families of those killed this morning and expressing confidence that there would be a swift response to the "criminal action".

1230 GMT: EA's Mr Smith checks in with detail on Jundallah and the bombing: "We would normally dismiss the Iranian allegations of foreign interference as the usual anti-West yarn from Tehran, but the claims against [Jundallah leader Abdolmalek] Rigi warrant extra attention. He is an extremely shadowy figure who appears to be well-protected, to the extent that his own brother has been caught and sentenced to death [Hamid Rigi was reprieved at the last minute although 13 other Jundullah members were executed] by the Iranian authorities but he himself is still at large.

"He has appeared several times on Voice of America Persian, under the label "Leader of the 'Popular Resistance Movement of Iran', which is something VOA made up --- it's not quite the Persian translation of Jundullah. Exactly how the VOA got hold of him for a live interview, via satellite phone, is quite unexplained, as is the prominence and deference accorded to him. This interview caused a serious backlash in the Iranian blogosphere and seriously discredited VOA Persian."

1215 GMT: Press TV's reporting is not only emphasising Jundallah's responsibility for the bombings but playing up a US connection. In a video we've posted in a separate entry, Press TV claims --- from an interview with the captured brother of Junduallah's leader, Abdolmalek Rigi --- that the group "has been in constant contact with the US Embassy in Islamabad [Pakistan] and this has been certified by different groups and sources [of Press TV]".

1200 GMT: The latest from Iranian state media puts the death toll from this morning's larger bombing at 29, including six senior Revolutionary Guard commanders, with 28 injured. The Sunni rebel group Jundallah is reported to have claimed responsibility for the attack. The Revolutionary Guard continue to allege that the US is involved, while state television has also blamed Britain.

0945 GMT: We've moved our initial morning analysis, considering the politics of the Supreme Leader's health, the release on bail of journalist Maziar Bahari, the suspended sentence for Saeed Hajjarian, and more arrests, to a separate analysis.

0920 GMT: Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting has identified the site of the larger of the two bombings as the gates of a conference hall, where the Revolutionary Guard meeting with tribal elders was to take place, in the city of Sarbaz in Sistan-Baluchestan.

0845 GMT: Press TV adds an interesting detail on the bombing, pointing to coordinated attacks: "At around the same time, another group of IRGC commanders were caught in an explosion as their convoy came under attack at a road junction" in the town of Pishin in Sistan-Baluchestan.

0840 GMT: No new details on the suicide boming, but Revolutionary Guard officials have issued a communique saying "foreign elements" linked to the US were responsible.

Watch carefully to see if the Ahmadinejad Government maintains this line, which could derail "engagement". US and Iranian delegations are due to meet tomorrow in the "5+1" technical talks on Iran's uranium enrichment.

0725 GMT: Iranian state media is reporting that "several" senior commanders have been killed by a suicide bombing in Zahedan, the capital of Sistan-Baluchestan Province in southeastern Iran, which left 60 dead and injured.

Those killed include General Noor Ali Shooshtari, the deputy commander of the IRGC ground forces, and Rajab Ali Mohammadzadeh, the IRGC's commander in Sistan-Baluchestan.

The IRGC commanders had gathered to meet tribal elders, purportedly for Shia-Sunni reconciliation. (English summary avaiable via Associated Press)

Iran: Khamenei, Bahari, Hajjarian, and the "Semi-Normal"

The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings
NEW Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery
Iran: The Supreme Leader Lives — The Picture (17 October)
The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal

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Little did we know, when we titled yesterday's updates "Back to Semi-Normal", how appropriate the label would turn out.

The most prominent semi-normal was the apparent reappearance of the Supreme Leader after recent rumours about his poor health. We've followed yesterday's special updates with an analysis this morning of the political significance beyond the pictures of his meetings with Senegal's President Abdoulaye Wade.

Then there was the semi-normal, which will dominate "Western" coverage today, of the release of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari on $300,000 bail from Evin Prison. Bahari had been held since June on allegations that he had passed sensitive information to "Western" agencies plotting velvet revolution in Iran; the authorities put him on show after the first Tehran trial in August to "confess".

If this is semi-normal for Bahari, who is not "free" but still awaits a formal judgement and sentencing, the event is even more semi-normal because it obscures a wider political move by the regime. In the post-election conflict, far more significant is the suspended five-year prison sentence handed down to Saeed Hajjarian, the reformist political leader who has been at the centre of the crisis since his arrest in June.

Hajjarian, disabled by an assassin's attack nine years ago but still one of the most powerful political theorists in Iran, became a symbol for the Green opposition; he was a far different symbol for the Government, who made his "confession" first amongst equals as they constructed their foreign-inspired attempt to overthrow the regime.

With Hajjarian's suspended sentence, the Government is trying to show a supposed willingness for conciliation while it draws a line under the crisis. EA's Mr Smith was wrong in his prediction --- that the Supreme Leader would give an amnesty to Hajjarian and other key reformists --- only by a few weeks. All is now well, the Government will claim, while being on guard to re-arrest Hajjarian, imposing the suspended sentence, if he or other reformists cause more trouble.

For, in this "semi-normal" political state, the regime is still detaining allies of Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. At 4 a.m. yesterday Government forces raided the home of Mohammad Reza Mogheyseh, the head of the Karroubi-Mousavi special committee investigating prisoner abuse cases, and arrested the activist.

No, for all the drama surrounding the Supreme Leader, for all the attention that will be given to Bahari (see how many non-Iranian media outlets even mention the Hajjarian suspended sentence), the "real" political stories of this week --- and the week to come --- are the sustained challenge by opposition leaders like Mehdi Karroubi and the still little-known negotiations over the National Unity Plan.

It is 17 days to the demonstrations of 13 Aban (4 November).

The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal

The Latest from Iran (18 October): Semi-Normal, Indeed - Khamenei, Bahari, & Hajjarian
Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery
Iran: The Supreme Leader Lives --- The Picture (17 October)
Iran: The Daily Show Tribute (Persian and English Versions)
A Brilliant Neo-Con Idea: Crippling Iran to Save It
Iran: A Beginner’s Guide to the Economy, Past and Present
The Latest from Iran (16 October): Rumours and Drama, Khamenei and Karroubi

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1855 GMT: We're taking a Saturday night off to recharge mental batteries. The discussion board should be buzzing all night, however --- take a look at the sharp-eyed comments on the separate entry about the Supreme Leader's pictures --- and your ideas and thoughts are invaluable to us.

Before we go, an apology. In another prominent entry today, I referred to the Persian language as "Farsi". This, of course, is an error, and I will endeavour not to repeat it. Thanks to readers who gently brought the mistake to my attention.

1850 GMT: The Government Fights On Over Detainees.
Mohammad Reza Mogheyseh, who became the head of the Karroubi-Mousavi special committee investigating prisoner abuse cases after the arrest of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti in September, was taken from his home and detained at 4 a.m. Mogheyseh is a well-known war veteran who has helped amputees and families of the dead.

http://www.kaleme.com/1388/07/25/klm-637

1810 GMT: Conservative Resurgence Against Ahmadinejad? The high-profile conservative member of Parliament, Ali Motahari, had been quiet recently after repeated complaints about the President during the summer. However, in an interview today he has said that conservatives should admit to the wrongdoings of Ahmadinejad, and considering the facts without prejudice and judging fairly.

Perhaps even more significantly, given talk of the National Unity Plan, Motahari complained that Ahmadinejad supporters are insisting that there should be no national unity unless “leaders of the conspiracy” admit to their mistakes and apologise to the people or even be prosecuted. Motahari insisted those supporters should consider that Ahmadinejad started the “conspiracy” with his remarks during the election campaign and in his “victory” speech. (English summary via Facebook page linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi)

1800 GMT: Reuters is reporting, from Iranian Labor News Agency, that Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari has been released on $300,000 bail.

1740 GMT: We've updated in the separate entry on the photographs of today's reported appearance of the Supreme Leader. Meanwhile, Press TV has brought out an English-language version of the meeting with the President of Senegal, focusing on Khamenei's call for support of "oppressed Palestinians".

1640 GMT: He's Alive! The Supreme Leader's website has poted the first picture of Ayatollah Khameini since the recent rumours of ill health. We've got the details in a separate entry.

1625 GMT: Salaam News reports that the weekly gathering of mothers and family members of victims of post-election violence, held in Laleh Park, was disrupted by police and security forces who used tear gas.

1545 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz and Rouydad claim that leading reformist politician Saeed Hajjarian has been given a five-year suspended prison sentence after four months in detention. The Iranian judiciary has not yet been confirmed the reports.

1415 GMT: After a four-day break, the English-language Tehran Times is publishing again, with stories such as Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's warning to his US counterpart Hillary Clinton, "Avoid ‘Useless Slogans’ Used in Bush Era".

1250 GMT: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty posts more details about those recently sentenced to death in Iran, including Hamed Rouhinejad. (Curiously, they report four rather than five condemned.)

1150 GMT: National Unity Plan Alive and Well? After days with little news of the Plan, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar has confirmed that he is on the panel working on the proposal. He told journalists, "Don't rush on reporting details," expressing confidence in the success of the initiative. The article from Aftab News claims that, although Government supporters have been hostile, the majority of Parliament supports the plan.

1140 GMT: A Sign of Conciliation? Tehran's police chief has called for unity and admitted that "the Basij [militia]'s image needs to be repaired". Perhaps most importantly, he has accepted street marches as long as they are peaceful.

The statement follows recent comments by Iran's police chief, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, that said demonstrations would be tolerated if they were within the law.

1130 GMT: News or Disinformation? Raja News, a fervent opponent of the Green movement, claims that supporters of Ayatollah Dastgheib, an equally vehement critic of the Government, stormed the office of the Friday Prayers committee in Fars Provine and beat a cleric who supports the Supreme Leader. The newspaper also features a statement from the "community and clergy" reiterating the electoral turnout of 85 percent and Ahmadinejad's tally of more than 24 million votes.

0935 GMT: Fars News, on its English-language site, has reiterated the denial by "Iran's diplomatic sources" of the rumours of the Supreme Leader's illness. The article is more shorter than the Farsi-language "analysis" posted on Friday (see yesterday's updates), linking the rumours to a Western campaign for velvet revolution.

Significantly, Fars refuses to note that it was an Iranian website, Peiknet, that posted the first report of Ayatollah Khamenei's health problems, instead pinning the rumour on a long-time bogeyman, Michael Ledeen. And, perhaps equally significantly, the denial still comes from relatively low-ranking Iranian officials --- the two are "on record", though not named in this article, are based in Armenia and Belarus.

0730 GMT: Now for the Government's Next Threat. A prosecutor has told the Islamic Republic News Agency that, after "several hundred" complaints from the public, Mir Hossein Mousavi may be brought before the Media Court to be punished.

0640 GMT: Press TV is intent on building up Iran's international stature today --- Iran sends special envoy to resolve crisis in Yemen, Jannati at Friday Prayers declares "Western powers have finally realized they cannot have the final say on Tehran's nuclear issue", Iran calls for war crimes trial of Israeli leaders. However, it does stray from this line for one economic story of note: "Iran's drug companies are facing a financial crisis due to unpaid debts of more than $300 million".

0625 GMT: A much quieter day so far. The chatter about the Supreme Leader's health has eased, and after a flurry of back-and-forth challenges between the Government, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mir Hossein Mousavi, no one has made any moves (though, if past experience is a guide, the battling could pick up this afternoon).

While life and politics can never be labelled normal in Iran after 12 June, there is a semblance of steady-as-she-goes today. Still, as a reader reminds us, even "semi-normal" qualified. Five post-election detainees remain on death row pending their appeals; a "deeply troubled" United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has now spoken on the issue through a report to the General Assembly: “The handling by authorities of the protests that followed has raised concerns about respect for freedom of expression, assembly and association, the use of force in policing demonstrations and the treatment of and due process afforded to detainees."

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1940 GMT: Isn't It Ironic, Don't You Think? The Iranian Government has celebrated Teachers Day by arresting 12 teachers. (To clarify, in light of comments below, World Teachers Day is 5 October. Iran's Teachers Day is 2 May.)

1745 GMT: Rumours and Audits. Tomorrow could be a very interesting day in the Iranian Parliament. The hot whisper is that former Tehran Prosecutor General and now Iran Deputy Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi could be set up as the "fall guy" for abuses mentioned in a Parliamentary report.

More substantial --- at this point --- is another criticism of President Ahmadinejad, this time over Government expenditure. The National Audit Report to the Parliament claims mismanagement, embezzlement, and fraud and accuses the Government of 2005-2009 of harming the nation.

1725 GMT: The release of the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli, Mohammad Ghoochani, has been delayed.

1635 GMT: Another Player on the Pitch. OK, the reformists are in play with their meeting with senior clerics (1555 GMT). Rafsanjani's gone public with his meeting with clerics (1608 GMT). And now Alireza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, re-enters after his recent detention. He has written an open letter of scathing criticism of the Revolutionary Guard and its commander, Mohammad Ali Jafari.

1618 GMT: Larijani Win, Ahmadinejad Defeat? Mik Verbrugge adds vital information on Ali Larijani's re-election as head of the Principlist group in Parliament (1605 GMT). Despite days of reports that pro-Ahmadinejad MPs would try to unseat Larijani, their candidate received only seven votes.

1615 GMT: More Student Protests. Reports and videos are coming in of demonstrations at Shiraz/Sadra University and Azad University in Tehran.

1608 GMT: Another Rafsanjani Message? As some senior clerics meet reformist politicians (1555 GMT), others have met Hashemi Rafsanjani to express grave concern over the national crisis and ask Rafsanjani to take all steps towards resolution. Rafsanjani reportedly answered, "In order to exit this crisis, we need 2 identify the 'true culprits' of divisions and provocations and confront them decisively." He further explained that such culprits were those "who accuse, slander, float rumours, and those in the media who help them".

1605 GMT: Ali Larijani has been re-elected leader of the Principlist group in Parliament with 24 of 32 central committee votes.

1555 GMT: Now It Gets Interesting. Members of the Parliamentary reformist minority, the Imam Khomeini Line, will consult with marjas (senior clerics), including Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib. The news comes 24 hours before a Parliamentary committee is due to report on its enquiry into alleged abuses of post-election detainees.

1545 GMT: No Sympathy Allowed. Back from academic seminars to find a rush of developments. Yet another sign that the ruling authorities are feeling some pressure. The Vice Governor of Tehran has ordered City Council members to refrain from meeting freed detainees and families.

1210 GMT: I Love You (Spell It with Tractors). Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, has a delightfully naughty article about the dubious background of Ahmadinejad's latest selection for First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi. There's little to support claims such as "allegations of stealing land from a University", but this allegation made up for lack of evidence with a sense of style:

He later assumed position as the governor of Kurdistan Province in the early 90s when Rafsanjani was in his second term as Iranian President. According to sources supporting the current coup government, during Rafsanjani’s visit to his province, Rahimi ordered farmers to place their tractors in a way that would read phrases in praise of Rafsanjani.

Meanwhile, three members of Parliament have filed a complaint, requesting investigation of claims that Rahimi forged his doctorate.

1155 GMT: Poke, Poke, Poke. You might think that the Ahmadinejad Government, having gotten agreement to a series of talks and averted the prospect of tougher sanctions, might want to take a quiet, steady line.

No chance. The latest jab of the stick comes from the head of Iran's nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, who tells Kayhan that the second uranium enrichment plant at Fardoo will have the latest in high-technology centrifuges. In other words, the calmer narrative of Fardoo as a back-up to the main plant at Natanz will now be replaced, both by Tehran and by "Western" critics of engagement, with the portrayal of Fardoo as a front-line component in Iran's drive to nuclear energy (Iran version) or nuclear weapons ("Western" critics version).

1000 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has visited the home of the recently-released reformist leader Saeed Hajjarian. No details of the discussion have been offered.

0945 GMT: Earlier we noted the closure of Farhange Ashti, a newspaper close to Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the pro-reformist Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi by the Press Supervisory Board (0715 GMT). It is now reported that a third newspaper, Tahlil Rooz, has been shut.

0830 GMT: News arrives of a new Web project to offer English translations of German media on the post-election crisis in Iran. Some interesting material is already on-line.

0745 GMT: We've posted a brief analysis and transcript of an interview of former Obama Administration official Ray Takeyh and University of Tehran academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi on CNN. It's a textbook example of how, as Washington pursues engagement, the Ahmadinejad Government will link the talks to international and internal legitimacy.

0715 GMT: A quiet Tuesday so far. The Ahmadinejad Government has been playing up its international profile, calling the Geneva talks on the nuclear programme a “national success” for “Iran's resistance” to foreign pressure and emphasising that the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei “praised Iran's cooperation" in his Sunday press conference. (There was no reference to El Baradei's call for transparency from Tehran.) Ahmadinejad also proclaimed Iran's support for the Iraqi Government, framing it as an ally against unnamed opponents: "With fine qualities such as theirs, the Iraqi nation has a bright future ahead of it. It will undoubtedly stop its enemies in their tracks and take up its responsibilities with the understanding and foresight that it has."

Nothing further on the “National Unity Plan”. Nor has there been much from the Green movement or even from leading reformists since the weekend. So we are still stuck in trying to understand the politics behind a plan whose details are not known.

However, there was one very powerful signal on Monday of the internal battle between forces allied with Hashemi Rafsanjani and those who oppose his manoeuvres for “political reconciliation”. Farhange Ashti, a newspaper close to Rafsanjani, was closed on orders of the Press Supervisory Board. The pro-reformist Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi has also been shut.

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2100 GMT: Just Back Away Slowly. Now this from the Iranian Government:

Atomic Energy Organization of Iran spokesman Ali Shirzadian said on Saturday that International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei’s two-day trip to Iran had previously been planned and is not linked to last Thursday’s talks between Iran and the 5+1 group.

2000 GMT: Rumour of the Day. No, it's not the one about Ahmadinejad being part-Jewish: the Daily Telegraph's "astonishing secret" is eight months old. Mehdi Khazali, the son of the late Ayatollah Khazali, posted the allegation eight months ago.

No, the more important loud whisper is that Major-General Hassan Firouzabadi, the head of Iran's armed forces, is being removed from his post. We held off reporting this, as there was no supporting evidence, but now his office has felt the story was serious enough to issue a denial.

1945 GMT: Mehdi Mirdamadi, the son of Mohsen Mirdamadi, the Secretary-General of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released after 17 days in detention.

1635 GMT: Amidst all the confusion over the claimed drafts of National Unity Plans (see 1040 GMT), Pedestrian offers a thoughtful and pointed analysis. There are two drafts, one which would have be inclusive of opposition figures such as Mousavi and Karroubi and one put about by hard-liners who want to steal the limelight and quash an inclusive arrangement:

Now, the other side doesn’t want to be left behind and is trying to release a plan of their own. They don’t want the Mousavi camp to be the group to come up with “the” national unity plan. Which is just funny, since Mousavi and Rafsanjani after him were the ones who have been talking about a plan for months. RajaNews and FarsNews sound like a kid who suddenly decides to steal his classmate’s homework.

Sure, they could have waited for Mousavi’s and ignored it, but they know that it will be read by a whole lot of people, “national unity” is of utmost importance right now, and as much as they can yell and holler that nothing has happened, they know the cords it will strike and they want theirs to be front page news.

1616 GMT: Spinning Out the Game. First, it was the denial by Saeed Jalili's spokesman that Iran had agreed to "third-party enrichment". Now a member of the Iranian delegation from the Geneva talks says not only that no agreement was made on delivery of uranium to a country such as Russia but also that there was no deal on inspection of the second enrichment plant near Qom in the next two weeks: "In the Thursday talks, Iran elaborated on its package of proposals and how to implement them… and it was agreed that negotiations should continue on Iran’s package of proposals and the common points in this package and the package drawn up by the other side, and there was no other agreement.”

1610 GMT: International Atomic Energy Agency Mohammad El Baradei has arrived in Tehran to discuss arrangements for the inspection of Iran's second uranium enrichment facility.

1435 GMT: MediaCheck (EA v. CNN, Round 78) . Enduring America ($0/story), 2 October, 0700 GMT: "Big Win for Tehran at Geneva Talks".

CNN ($199/story), 3 October, 1320 GMT: "Iran is Winner in Nuclear Talks, At Least for Now"

1420 GMT: The reformist leader Saeed Hajjarian, detained for 100 days until he was bailed this week, has told the youth section of the Islamic Iran Participation Front of his stay in prison. He was totally cut off from the outside world and was unaware of events. He was held in solitary confinement in Evin Prison for a month and, after his transfer to another location, was only in contact with interrogators.

Hajjarian claimed that interrogators told him of many people killed in fighting and a big gap has been created between the authorities and the Iranian people, all due to his theories of reform. He added that he could hear people chanting “God is Great” outside Evin Prison, boosting his spirits.

1410 GMT: All 15 members of the Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat (Unity Consolidation Bureau) reformist student group who were arrested on Friday morning have been released. One of the members told Deutsche Welle that these blind arrests are signs that the authorities are confused on how to deal with the protests.

1400 GMT: Press TV is now headlining the denial of the spokesman for Iran's National Security Council that Tehran "reached a deal with world powers to ship its enriched uranium abroad for further processing". The Secretary of the NSC, Saeed Jalili, is Iran's lead negotiator on the nuclear issue.

1200 GMT: Sir, It Was Not Me. Saeed Jalili, Iran's lead negotiator at the Geneva talks, has denied the widespread report that he and his US counterpart, William Burns, had a 30-minute 1-on-1 discussion during lunch. They "might have exchanged a few words during the lunch break with other delegations present". (See also our separate analysis.)

1050 GMT: Reports that some of the 15 or more student activists of Daftar-Takhim-Vadat, detained yesterday, have been released.

1040 GMT: The Plan (and A Breakthrough)? After 48 hours of quiet, some movement on the purported National Unity Plan.

Parleman News reports that the "Iran Conciliation Plan" is close to a final draft. Provisions include a release of post-election detainees, a change in the "attitude" of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, allowing both sides 2 voice their views, and an end to the "security atmosphere".

Mediators for the plan are named as Hassan Khomeini (Imam Khomeini's grandson), Hashemi Rafsanjani, Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani, Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli, and a few other prominent senior clerics.

Mediators have approached Mir Hossein Mousavi in the past weeks. He has indicated that he approves the grand design and is discussing minor changes. And here's the big shift: for the first time since drafts of a plan surfaced, it is reported that Mehdi Karroubi is also being asked to approve the initiative.

"Informed sources" have said that prisoner release and a change in Government could occur within days, as well as the arrest and prosecution of some "rogue" officials and demotion of others.

Now for a caution: this is the second "draft" to have appeared; the first, published in Fars News, provoked much comment and criticism that it was not the "real" plan. So, while this latest news is imporant, we await other signs that this indeed is the working scheme for reconciliation.

0805 GMT: Wow. The editorial staff at The New York Times must have been taking multi-strength vitamins (or getting words in their ears from those in the Obama Administration who aren't thrilled about the talks with Iran):

This is no time for complacency or wishful thinking. The United States and its partners must push Iran to open all of its declared nuclear facilities and allow inspectors to interview any Iranian scientist they choose to — the only way to figure out what else Iran may be hiding. The leading powers must also be ready to impose tough sanctions if Iran resists or if negotiations go nowhere.

0750 GMT: Chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili has repeated: "Within the framework of the IAEA and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the nuclear watchdog will be allowed to inspect the [second] nuclear site as it has been the case with the Natanz nuclear facility."

0730 GMT: Leading Principlist MP Hamid-Reza Katouzian has raised questions about the Parliamentary commission that is supposedly investigating post-election abuses. He notes that its composition is not "diverse", "its legal status is unclear", and it has not yet met.

0725 GMT: The commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, has launched a pre-emptive strike against any plan for national unity, arguing that it is unnecessary given the legitimacy of the Presidential election and the strength of the Iranian system.

0700 GMT: Gary Sick, whose analysis on US-Iranian relations is always to be valued, yesterday put the "surprisingly productive" tag on the Geneva talks on Iran's nuclear programme. Juan Cole also held this view, adding, "Obama pwns Bush-Cheney on Iran", and this was soon picked up by other commentators such as Andrew Sulivan.

I share the hope that this is a breakthrough but, at the same, my concern (and that of EA colleagues) was that Geneva was being overplayed as a US victory "wringing concessions" out of the Iranians. The portrayal also obscured, even ignored, the tensions that continue within the Obama Administration.

So this morning "significant progress" has turned into "significant doubts" with the Obama Administration falling into confusion and squabbles over whether to welcome the engagement with Iran or to wag a finger of warning. We've got a separate analysis, "Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Obama’s Balance Wobbles".

0555 GMT: We're back after taking Friday night off to recharge.

Many thanks to our readers for a discussion which I think offers some of the best analysis of the internal politics, possibilities, and challenges. Where else on the Internet can you find a thorough discussion of Tehran Mayor Qalibaf, who may become a key figure in a plan for political resolution?

One of the questions which continues to occupy us is the strategy of Mir Hossein Mousavi. I have been sceptical of Mousavi's move "into the tent", setting aside a front of political opposition for a social network and apparent negotiation within the system, through a role on a committee for 2national unity. (My concern is not as much about Mousavi's decision as it is about the exclusion of Mehdi Karroubi from the process.) Our readers, however, have been considering the idea that Mousavi is fulfilling the long-term approach of the Green Wave; recognising that head-on confrontation will only lead to the crushing of the movement, he is seeking reform through some co-operation with the establishment's inquiries and re-evaluations. Still others don't trust Mousavi at all because of his past record, particularly as Prime Minister in the 1980s.

Very little movement on the internal front so far this morning, however, from Mousavi or anyone else.