The Latest from Iran (6 October): Loud Noises, Quiet Manoeuvres

NEW Video: 4 Clips from Tehran Azad University Protests (6 October)
NEW Iran: Talks and Legitimacy - Takeyh and Marandi on CNN
The Latest from Iran (5 October): The Difficulty of Signals

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1940 GMT: Isn't It Ironic, Don't You Think? The Iranian Government has celebrated Teachers Day by arresting 12 teachers. (To clarify, in light of comments below, World Teachers Day is 5 October. Iran's Teachers Day is 2 May.)

1745 GMT: Rumours and Audits. Tomorrow could be a very interesting day in the Iranian Parliament. The hot whisper is that former Tehran Prosecutor General and now Iran Deputy Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi could be set up as the "fall guy" for abuses mentioned in a Parliamentary report.

More substantial --- at this point --- is another criticism of President Ahmadinejad, this time over Government expenditure. The National Audit Report to the Parliament claims mismanagement, embezzlement, and fraud and accuses the Government of 2005-2009 of harming the nation.

1725 GMT: The release of the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli, Mohammad Ghoochani, has been delayed.

1635 GMT: Another Player on the Pitch. OK, the reformists are in play with their meeting with senior clerics (1555 GMT). Rafsanjani's gone public with his meeting with clerics (1608 GMT). And now Alireza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, re-enters after his recent detention. He has written an open letter of scathing criticism of the Revolutionary Guard and its commander, Mohammad Ali Jafari.

1618 GMT: Larijani Win, Ahmadinejad Defeat? Mik Verbrugge adds vital information on Ali Larijani's re-election as head of the Principlist group in Parliament (1605 GMT). Despite days of reports that pro-Ahmadinejad MPs would try to unseat Larijani, their candidate received only seven votes.

1615 GMT: More Student Protests. Reports and videos are coming in of demonstrations at Shiraz/Sadra University and Azad University in Tehran.

1608 GMT: Another Rafsanjani Message? As some senior clerics meet reformist politicians (1555 GMT), others have met Hashemi Rafsanjani to express grave concern over the national crisis and ask Rafsanjani to take all steps towards resolution. Rafsanjani reportedly answered, "In order to exit this crisis, we need 2 identify the 'true culprits' of divisions and provocations and confront them decisively." He further explained that such culprits were those "who accuse, slander, float rumours, and those in the media who help them".

1605 GMT: Ali Larijani has been re-elected leader of the Principlist group in Parliament with 24 of 32 central committee votes.

1555 GMT: Now It Gets Interesting. Members of the Parliamentary reformist minority, the Imam Khomeini Line, will consult with marjas (senior clerics), including Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib. The news comes 24 hours before a Parliamentary committee is due to report on its enquiry into alleged abuses of post-election detainees.

1545 GMT: No Sympathy Allowed. Back from academic seminars to find a rush of developments. Yet another sign that the ruling authorities are feeling some pressure. The Vice Governor of Tehran has ordered City Council members to refrain from meeting freed detainees and families.

1210 GMT: I Love You (Spell It with Tractors). Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, has a delightfully naughty article about the dubious background of Ahmadinejad's latest selection for First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi. There's little to support claims such as "allegations of stealing land from a University", but this allegation made up for lack of evidence with a sense of style:

He later assumed position as the governor of Kurdistan Province in the early 90s when Rafsanjani was in his second term as Iranian President. According to sources supporting the current coup government, during Rafsanjani’s visit to his province, Rahimi ordered farmers to place their tractors in a way that would read phrases in praise of Rafsanjani.

Meanwhile, three members of Parliament have filed a complaint, requesting investigation of claims that Rahimi forged his doctorate.

1155 GMT: Poke, Poke, Poke. You might think that the Ahmadinejad Government, having gotten agreement to a series of talks and averted the prospect of tougher sanctions, might want to take a quiet, steady line.

No chance. The latest jab of the stick comes from the head of Iran's nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, who tells Kayhan that the second uranium enrichment plant at Fardoo will have the latest in high-technology centrifuges. In other words, the calmer narrative of Fardoo as a back-up to the main plant at Natanz will now be replaced, both by Tehran and by "Western" critics of engagement, with the portrayal of Fardoo as a front-line component in Iran's drive to nuclear energy (Iran version) or nuclear weapons ("Western" critics version).

1000 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has visited the home of the recently-released reformist leader Saeed Hajjarian. No details of the discussion have been offered.

0945 GMT: Earlier we noted the closure of Farhange Ashti, a newspaper close to Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the pro-reformist Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi by the Press Supervisory Board (0715 GMT). It is now reported that a third newspaper, Tahlil Rooz, has been shut.

0830 GMT: News arrives of a new Web project to offer English translations of German media on the post-election crisis in Iran. Some interesting material is already on-line.

0745 GMT: We've posted a brief analysis and transcript of an interview of former Obama Administration official Ray Takeyh and University of Tehran academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi on CNN. It's a textbook example of how, as Washington pursues engagement, the Ahmadinejad Government will link the talks to international and internal legitimacy.

0715 GMT: A quiet Tuesday so far. The Ahmadinejad Government has been playing up its international profile, calling the Geneva talks on the nuclear programme a “national success” for “Iran's resistance” to foreign pressure and emphasising that the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei “praised Iran's cooperation" in his Sunday press conference. (There was no reference to El Baradei's call for transparency from Tehran.) Ahmadinejad also proclaimed Iran's support for the Iraqi Government, framing it as an ally against unnamed opponents: "With fine qualities such as theirs, the Iraqi nation has a bright future ahead of it. It will undoubtedly stop its enemies in their tracks and take up its responsibilities with the understanding and foresight that it has."

Nothing further on the “National Unity Plan”. Nor has there been much from the Green movement or even from leading reformists since the weekend. So we are still stuck in trying to understand the politics behind a plan whose details are not known.

However, there was one very powerful signal on Monday of the internal battle between forces allied with Hashemi Rafsanjani and those who oppose his manoeuvres for “political reconciliation”. Farhange Ashti, a newspaper close to Rafsanjani, was closed on orders of the Press Supervisory Board. The pro-reformist Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi has also been shut.

Comments

[Arshama]

The name of Obama's former advisor has to be spelled TAKYEH (look at the explanation) http://www.iranian.com/main/blog/ghool/letter-ray-takyeh
Iranian political experts contradict AN that the Geneva talks were a success. In fact many of them called it shameful that Iran is forced to send its uranium to other countries for enrichment. We are at a point, where we were 6 years ago, the say.
Anyway, the only language this regime understands are threats.
I really wonder about Scott Lucas, painting the image of constructive talks while the IRGC is gradually taking control of the whole country. According to Iranian commentators actually purges are executed even within the Bassij.
Military and militia are not ready for talks, they prefer to shoot - at first at their fellow citizens and tomorrow at all citizens of the world. Not accepting this regime's military logic would be a big mistake. I am pleased that Obama and his allies have send out unmistakable signals to AN and Kham that the international community will not accept their cheating any longer.
P.S. Do you really expect reaching an agreement by peaceful talks with a Holocaust denier?

[Scott Lucas]

Arshama,

Not sure why Ray Takeyh's family changed the spelling, but ever since I met him 15 years ago, he has spelled it that way.

More importantly, are you referring to "constructive talks" inside or outside Iran? Inside Iran, I make no judgement on whether the political moves, including those supposedly for "National Unity", are constructive; I just watch to see if they're occurring, who they involve, what they propose. Outside Iran, as I've written this morning, I would prefer for talks on the nuclear programme to be held in suspense because of the seriousness of the internal situation.

S.

[Yseut]

Scott, on another angle (AN cabinet's merry prankers and their judicial
issues, + the faked diplomas feuilleton)
http://english.mowjcamp.com/article/id/42599 + Pedestrian today (and links)
-unbelievable + weirdly sort of comical....How i'd love to see a Muppet Show
iranian version !

[ange paris]

I have read a very good aricle written by Anne Applebaum, a journ columnist of Washington post and Slate, entitled ” de quoi l’Iran a-il peur ” What is Iran frightened about ? unfortunately it’s in french but I am sure you could find a translation from english

http://www.slate.fr/story/11159/de-quoi-liran-t-il-peur

[Pedestrian]

Scott, Teachers Day is on May 2nd, the day of Motahari's assassination.

[Scott Lucas]

Pedestrian,

Have clarified in post --- should be World Teachers Day, not Iran's Teachers Day.

S.

[Amy]

1635 GMT
Alireza Beheshti fresh out of prison going after Mohammad Ali Jafari... that's one brave guy

1608 GMT
Hashemi continues to amaze... everything he says could be interpreted to apply to absolutely anybody

“In order to exit this crisis, we need 2 identify the ‘true culprits’ of divisions and provocations and confront them decisively.” He further explained that such culprits were those “who accuse, slander, float rumours, and those in the media who help them”.

[whereismyvote]

Interesting article I read on Foreign Affairs journal.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/features/letters-from/letter-from-tehran-irans-new-hard-liners

It almost reflects on what many of us have been talking about and discussing in the last few weeks and months.. This is good read. I saw a copy of the magazine in Tehran a few nights ago.

[Amy]

ange paris
Here is the link for the English version of the article you suggested:
http://www.slate.com/id/2229833/" rel="nofollow">What Is Iran Afraid Of?
Thanks!

Also thanks for yours, WIMV

[Amy]

whereismyvote
wow. You are right that most of what is in that article has been discussed here, but seeing it all at the same time in one place is overwhelming. People who argue that it's a sell-out for the Greens to work with the reformists should be referred to that article before coming back to explain how the Greens could go it alone. Military mafia comes to mind. Hugs to all of you.

Early in the article the Pasdaran are associated with the Hojjatieh Society, but then it transitions into business practices. Are part of the Pasdaran involved in Hojjatieh Society while others are not, or is it just that the Hojjatieh Society once was powerful, but it's influence faded as the Pasdaran grew increasingly secular?

Also is it true that Mojtaba Khamenei is "a man so feared that his name is not often uttered in public"? He is mentioned here at EA only occasionally in passing.

[whereismyvote]

@Amy
The article just like many other articles has to do some level of sensationalism to get the reader to stay focused and read. You have to realize that its 90% fact and 10% expansion of fact.
Pasdaran is a big force with many ideologies in it. The important thing for you to understand is that around 2003 a new group calling themselves the New Conservatives was formed in Iran. The article references it as the new right. With men in the Pasdaran, and the support of Yazdi (the head of Hojatieh) and the tutelage of Mojtabah. Alliance of Builders of Islamic Iran was a group of engineers typically of Pasdaran / Basiji background that had graduated with degrees from Irans top schools. The fake PHD farm folks... Mojtabah wanted to expand and upgrade his power and influence, and by taking under his wing the new group he started to form an alliance between Hojatieh, New conservative rights from Iran and the party called Alliance of Builders of Islamic Iran. The most pressing task in 2003 was security of the regime, this group started by creating a national security plan / security response. Their imputes was the Neo Cons in Washington. They fashioned themselves as an antidote to the Neo Cons and they got unconditional support from the leader at a time that everyone in Iran was scared of the Neo Cons and what they may do. In essence they were the response to the axis of evil speech. The escalation of economic expansion was justified cause they needed resources to execute their plan. The expansion to political and social life was allowed to create unified government and ability to response under their total war plan. Asymmetric response was the means to confront USA. Aggression was to be exercised in diplomacy and foreign policy. Parliament and Presidency were next targets to be over taken in 2005 and subsequent parliament elections. Their foreign adventures in Iraq and Lebanon was supported cause Iran felt a threat. The plan worked however the monster is now not willing to go back and wants to take complete control. The reformers / Rafsanjani / clerics / traditional conservatives and many in the Pasdaran force are against the New Conservative movement with Jafari / AN and his men, however the SL supported them through coercion and silence and now he seems to not be able to pull them back. A confrontation is inevitable. We will need to move in like waves of the ocean to under wash the pillars of this alliance. They will not be defeated any other way..... There are opposite views in the Pasdaran force, however they have been pushed out or forced to retire. Almost all top ranking pasdaran men are now part of this new group. A cleansing of Pasdaran has been happening for the last 4 years.

One last word. When this movement was initiated and when they moved against the USA and the Neo Cons many of us Iranians are guilty of silent support of it. We knew what was happening, but we were feeling very insecure, and we allowed them to make the counter move against the Bush administration. We all were pacified because we sat back and initially profited from the bad economical policies of AN. Between 2005 to 2007 real estate tripled in price, and we all made money and hated AN in the same sentence. Now we want the dog to leave as a response to America and its new president, its new approach and its offer of peace, yet the dog is too powerful and hungry.

[Amy]

whereismyvote
Thanks so much for taking time to explain in such detail. I'm keeping this comment for future reference. I knew (learned it here) that Bush's "axis of evil" speech & associated saber-rattling was responsible for the strengthening of Pasdaran authority and resources, but I didn't know about the behind-the-scenes alliances and economic changes that went with it.

Bush will never grasp the damage he did. I'm not sure he's capable of it even if it occurred to him to try. For what it's worth, lots of us were disgusted by his policies and rhetoric. He kept enough people scared to continue to get his way. He was able to get Democrats to approve and fund ventures they didn't support-- they were afraid of being blames if there was another terrorist attack. Whenever people questioned what BushCo proposed, they would ratchet up the scare tactics. There really was no guarantee that the US wouldn't attack Iran until the war in Iraq got bogged down enough to make it impossible.

What we could have done better would have been to create a strongly organized opposition against what he was doing to back up politicians who were willing to vote against war. We too are still reeling militarily and financially from that venture. The ones of us who could see what he was doing never understood why it wasn't obvious & why people wouldn't listen. I think fear & confusion had a lot to do with it. The GOP gains a lot of ground by the tactic of muddying the water. If people are confused, they usually choose to err on the side of safety. By 2004, he got his 2nd term & it was too late when people's eye's were finally opened.

[whereismyvote]

@ Amy
Keep the content of the comment in your mind, but keeping my comment in the atmosphere of Iran is dangerous. It can come to haunt me. You have seen how the regime has used the words of people against them.

[Amy]

got it
I worry about you when you don't show up for a couple of days. For me, it means I was busy for a couple of days, but for you, who know's what could have happened

Keep being safe :)

[Amy]

Still, thank you for taking the chance as well as the time to explain in so much detail. I understand much better now how the situation got to this point.

I am even more ashamed and disgusted about our role in it. I would also include Bush's overt and covert resources directed at overthrow of the regime, which he proudly trumpeted to the world. It probably contributed to the Pasdaran build-up just as much as the Iraq war did. Now it has a lingering benefit for the regime-- it serves as evidence of foreign interference. For what it's worth, we called it "the Bush regime" & we wanted our own regime change in a bad way. We got ours... Now it's your turn!

I think what you said will stick in my mind since part of it already was there-- LOL. I'm sure it helped other readers too.

[Arshama]

Thanks, Scott, for clarifying Ray's surname. Probably he has changed it because of religious connotations.
I was referring to "constructive talks" outside Iran, of course. Inside Iran words are replied with beating, jailing or torture. In the best case they close down your company or office (3 banned newspaper on Oct. 6th is a new record).
If you do not believe me, here is an article from a reformer's website:
http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2009/october/06//most-ruthless-generals-in-charge-of-institutions-of-suppression.html
AN and his mafia believe they can act in the same way outside Iran, at least they try to impose their radical and inhuman perception to all dialog partners. Fortunately Obama and his allies responded in an appropriate way: yes to talks, no to ridiculizing the world community.

[Scott Lucas]

Arshama,

Thank you for the link.

Do you think that "constructive talks" are possible amongst political groups who might be opposed to AN? In other words, is it possible for Rafsanjani, Mousavi, and others to agree a "Nat'l Unity Plan" which would curb the President's power and even the power of the "mafia"?

S.