The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal

The Latest from Iran (18 October): Semi-Normal, Indeed - Khamenei, Bahari, & Hajjarian
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The Latest from Iran (16 October): Rumours and Drama, Khamenei and Karroubi

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1855 GMT: We're taking a Saturday night off to recharge mental batteries. The discussion board should be buzzing all night, however --- take a look at the sharp-eyed comments on the separate entry about the Supreme Leader's pictures --- and your ideas and thoughts are invaluable to us.

Before we go, an apology. In another prominent entry today, I referred to the Persian language as "Farsi". This, of course, is an error, and I will endeavour not to repeat it. Thanks to readers who gently brought the mistake to my attention.

1850 GMT: The Government Fights On Over Detainees.
Mohammad Reza Mogheyseh, who became the head of the Karroubi-Mousavi special committee investigating prisoner abuse cases after the arrest of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti in September, was taken from his home and detained at 4 a.m. Mogheyseh is a well-known war veteran who has helped amputees and families of the dead.

http://www.kaleme.com/1388/07/25/klm-637

1810 GMT: Conservative Resurgence Against Ahmadinejad? The high-profile conservative member of Parliament, Ali Motahari, had been quiet recently after repeated complaints about the President during the summer. However, in an interview today he has said that conservatives should admit to the wrongdoings of Ahmadinejad, and considering the facts without prejudice and judging fairly.

Perhaps even more significantly, given talk of the National Unity Plan, Motahari complained that Ahmadinejad supporters are insisting that there should be no national unity unless “leaders of the conspiracy” admit to their mistakes and apologise to the people or even be prosecuted. Motahari insisted those supporters should consider that Ahmadinejad started the “conspiracy” with his remarks during the election campaign and in his “victory” speech. (English summary via Facebook page linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi)

1800 GMT: Reuters is reporting, from Iranian Labor News Agency, that Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari has been released on $300,000 bail.

1740 GMT: We've updated in the separate entry on the photographs of today's reported appearance of the Supreme Leader. Meanwhile, Press TV has brought out an English-language version of the meeting with the President of Senegal, focusing on Khamenei's call for support of "oppressed Palestinians".

1640 GMT: He's Alive! The Supreme Leader's website has poted the first picture of Ayatollah Khameini since the recent rumours of ill health. We've got the details in a separate entry.

1625 GMT: Salaam News reports that the weekly gathering of mothers and family members of victims of post-election violence, held in Laleh Park, was disrupted by police and security forces who used tear gas.

1545 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz and Rouydad claim that leading reformist politician Saeed Hajjarian has been given a five-year suspended prison sentence after four months in detention. The Iranian judiciary has not yet been confirmed the reports.

1415 GMT: After a four-day break, the English-language Tehran Times is publishing again, with stories such as Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's warning to his US counterpart Hillary Clinton, "Avoid ‘Useless Slogans’ Used in Bush Era".

1250 GMT: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty posts more details about those recently sentenced to death in Iran, including Hamed Rouhinejad. (Curiously, they report four rather than five condemned.)

1150 GMT: National Unity Plan Alive and Well? After days with little news of the Plan, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar has confirmed that he is on the panel working on the proposal. He told journalists, "Don't rush on reporting details," expressing confidence in the success of the initiative. The article from Aftab News claims that, although Government supporters have been hostile, the majority of Parliament supports the plan.

1140 GMT: A Sign of Conciliation? Tehran's police chief has called for unity and admitted that "the Basij [militia]'s image needs to be repaired". Perhaps most importantly, he has accepted street marches as long as they are peaceful.

The statement follows recent comments by Iran's police chief, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, that said demonstrations would be tolerated if they were within the law.

1130 GMT: News or Disinformation? Raja News, a fervent opponent of the Green movement, claims that supporters of Ayatollah Dastgheib, an equally vehement critic of the Government, stormed the office of the Friday Prayers committee in Fars Provine and beat a cleric who supports the Supreme Leader. The newspaper also features a statement from the "community and clergy" reiterating the electoral turnout of 85 percent and Ahmadinejad's tally of more than 24 million votes.

0935 GMT: Fars News, on its English-language site, has reiterated the denial by "Iran's diplomatic sources" of the rumours of the Supreme Leader's illness. The article is more shorter than the Farsi-language "analysis" posted on Friday (see yesterday's updates), linking the rumours to a Western campaign for velvet revolution.

Significantly, Fars refuses to note that it was an Iranian website, Peiknet, that posted the first report of Ayatollah Khamenei's health problems, instead pinning the rumour on a long-time bogeyman, Michael Ledeen. And, perhaps equally significantly, the denial still comes from relatively low-ranking Iranian officials --- the two are "on record", though not named in this article, are based in Armenia and Belarus.

0730 GMT: Now for the Government's Next Threat. A prosecutor has told the Islamic Republic News Agency that, after "several hundred" complaints from the public, Mir Hossein Mousavi may be brought before the Media Court to be punished.

0640 GMT: Press TV is intent on building up Iran's international stature today --- Iran sends special envoy to resolve crisis in Yemen, Jannati at Friday Prayers declares "Western powers have finally realized they cannot have the final say on Tehran's nuclear issue", Iran calls for war crimes trial of Israeli leaders. However, it does stray from this line for one economic story of note: "Iran's drug companies are facing a financial crisis due to unpaid debts of more than $300 million".

0625 GMT: A much quieter day so far. The chatter about the Supreme Leader's health has eased, and after a flurry of back-and-forth challenges between the Government, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mir Hossein Mousavi, no one has made any moves (though, if past experience is a guide, the battling could pick up this afternoon).

While life and politics can never be labelled normal in Iran after 12 June, there is a semblance of steady-as-she-goes today. Still, as a reader reminds us, even "semi-normal" qualified. Five post-election detainees remain on death row pending their appeals; a "deeply troubled" United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has now spoken on the issue through a report to the General Assembly: “The handling by authorities of the protests that followed has raised concerns about respect for freedom of expression, assembly and association, the use of force in policing demonstrations and the treatment of and due process afforded to detainees."

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1900 GMT: It appears that the State Department's withdrawal of funding from four Iran-centred human rights organisations including the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center, which we noted yesterday, may get some media attention. Alex Massie of the British magazine The Spectator has written about the "shabby, and actually terrible" Government treatment of the groups, raising the concern of Andrew Sullivan of The Atlantic magazine.

1845 GMT: A University student newspaper has been closed by Government order after it implicitly accepted that the Holocaust had occurred.

1545 GMT: We're here, but it is a really slow news day, compounded by breakdowns in communication. Twitter seems to be out of action. Press TV's website is still leading with yesterday's story of the Supreme Leader's speech, and CNN has nothing beyond the disappearance of the Iranian nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri (see 1025 GMT).

1050 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi ("Iranbaan") has posted another set of updates on the conditions of detainees.

1025 GMT: Kidnappings and Talks. Both in Iranian and non-Iranian media, headlines are devoted to Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's allegation, "We have found documents that prove US interference in the disappearance of the Iranian pilgrim Shahram Amiri in Saudi Arabia."

The claim elevates an already murky story into the current power politics around Iran's nuclear program. Amiri is one of four Iranians who have "disappeared", whether through defection or kidnapping, since 2007. All four have been connected with Iran's military or nuclear programme. (Note that Press TV coyly refers to Amiri, beyond the "pilgrim" status, as "a researcher".) There have been allegations that the disappearances may be connected with an Israeli covert effort to cripple Iran's nuclear efforts.

Mottaki's statement, however, is connected more with an attempt to get leverage in the post-Geneva negotiations. The article uses comments by University of Tehran academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi to put further pressure on the US, "As long as the United States continues to behave in an unacceptable manner, I think it will be very difficult for Iranians to be convinced that true negotiations can lead to a fruitful conclusion." Marandi also applies that pressure to Iran's regional manoeuvres: "What is even more disturbing is the fact that the Saudi regime has effectively discredited itself and...will be seen by those who know what has gone on in the region as being confined to American demands and effectively abiding by American wishes."

0955 GMT: A Bit of Fun. Thanks to Persian Umpire, we have posted the ultimate telephone poll of Iranians on politics and President Ahmadinejad.

0915 GMT: The Death Sentence is Noticed. Reuters, citing the Green movement website Mowj-e-Sabz, has written about the death penalty imposed on Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani (see 0620 GMT).

0910 GMT: Parleman News offers an overview of yesterday's events in the Iranian Parliament. The focus is on Ali Larijani's success (and thus President Ahmadinejad's defeat) in winning re-election as head of the Principlist majority party, but there is also a bit of light-hearted banter between journalists and MPs over the question, "Where is my vote?"

0635 GMT: Following up our story of the morning (0600 GMT): Ayande News has an interview with Saeed Mortazavi (pictured), most of which is on the events surrounding Kahrizak Prison. Mortazavi minimises his role in the detentions and abuses, claiming that deaths occurred because of "prior injuries" rather than incidents at Kahrizak.

0620 GMT: Beyond the politics, a curious silence this morning on our last report of yesterday, the first death sentence passed on a post-election demonstrator, Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani. Possibly because the news has not been reported inside Iran, I cannot find a sign that the opposition has picked up on the development. If the death penalty is carried out, it could offer the symbolism of a martyr --- as with Neda Agha Soltan or Soltan Arabi --- for high-profile protest.

0600 GMT: The open challenge in Parliament to President Ahmadinejad, or at least to some high-profile officials, did not materialise yesterday, despite the existence of a report into post-election abuses which could be the foundation for that confrontation.

The document remained classified, and no one --- not even the reformist press --- broke out to make claims beyond the identification of two likely culprits, Iran Deputy Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi and Tehran police chief Ahmad Reza Radan.

That does not mean that the challenge has evaporated. To the contrary, there are enough signals from conservative/principlist members of Parliament to indicate anger with a Government which both oversaw and covered up the abuses. The symbolic catalyst for this is "Kahrizak", the prison where detainees were beaten, on occasion to death. One of those detainees was Mohsen Rohulamini, the son of a prominent academic and adviser to conservative Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, and it is his case that appears to have propelled the movement that someone has to answer for "crimes".

The question, as we noted yesterday, is how far that anger has translated into talks "across parties" not only to press the President on the report but to turn this into a wider attack on his authority.

We know that Hashemi Rafsanjani met principlist clerics on Tuesday. What we don't know is how much contact he has had with conservative/principlist politicians and officials within the Government. And we do not know what role the "Green movement", or rather its leaders, have in any discussions. It could be that the relative silence of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi in recent days is because they are now in talks which need time to produce action, or it could be that they are on the outside but waiting to see what occurs.

Throughout the crisis, EA readers have reminded me that Iranian politics is rarely measured in days or even weeks but in far longer periods. That timeframe seems to fit here.

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1940 GMT: Isn't It Ironic, Don't You Think? The Iranian Government has celebrated Teachers Day by arresting 12 teachers. (To clarify, in light of comments below, World Teachers Day is 5 October. Iran's Teachers Day is 2 May.)

1745 GMT: Rumours and Audits. Tomorrow could be a very interesting day in the Iranian Parliament. The hot whisper is that former Tehran Prosecutor General and now Iran Deputy Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi could be set up as the "fall guy" for abuses mentioned in a Parliamentary report.

More substantial --- at this point --- is another criticism of President Ahmadinejad, this time over Government expenditure. The National Audit Report to the Parliament claims mismanagement, embezzlement, and fraud and accuses the Government of 2005-2009 of harming the nation.

1725 GMT: The release of the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli, Mohammad Ghoochani, has been delayed.

1635 GMT: Another Player on the Pitch. OK, the reformists are in play with their meeting with senior clerics (1555 GMT). Rafsanjani's gone public with his meeting with clerics (1608 GMT). And now Alireza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, re-enters after his recent detention. He has written an open letter of scathing criticism of the Revolutionary Guard and its commander, Mohammad Ali Jafari.

1618 GMT: Larijani Win, Ahmadinejad Defeat? Mik Verbrugge adds vital information on Ali Larijani's re-election as head of the Principlist group in Parliament (1605 GMT). Despite days of reports that pro-Ahmadinejad MPs would try to unseat Larijani, their candidate received only seven votes.

1615 GMT: More Student Protests. Reports and videos are coming in of demonstrations at Shiraz/Sadra University and Azad University in Tehran.

1608 GMT: Another Rafsanjani Message? As some senior clerics meet reformist politicians (1555 GMT), others have met Hashemi Rafsanjani to express grave concern over the national crisis and ask Rafsanjani to take all steps towards resolution. Rafsanjani reportedly answered, "In order to exit this crisis, we need 2 identify the 'true culprits' of divisions and provocations and confront them decisively." He further explained that such culprits were those "who accuse, slander, float rumours, and those in the media who help them".

1605 GMT: Ali Larijani has been re-elected leader of the Principlist group in Parliament with 24 of 32 central committee votes.

1555 GMT: Now It Gets Interesting. Members of the Parliamentary reformist minority, the Imam Khomeini Line, will consult with marjas (senior clerics), including Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib. The news comes 24 hours before a Parliamentary committee is due to report on its enquiry into alleged abuses of post-election detainees.

1545 GMT: No Sympathy Allowed. Back from academic seminars to find a rush of developments. Yet another sign that the ruling authorities are feeling some pressure. The Vice Governor of Tehran has ordered City Council members to refrain from meeting freed detainees and families.

1210 GMT: I Love You (Spell It with Tractors). Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, has a delightfully naughty article about the dubious background of Ahmadinejad's latest selection for First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi. There's little to support claims such as "allegations of stealing land from a University", but this allegation made up for lack of evidence with a sense of style:

He later assumed position as the governor of Kurdistan Province in the early 90s when Rafsanjani was in his second term as Iranian President. According to sources supporting the current coup government, during Rafsanjani’s visit to his province, Rahimi ordered farmers to place their tractors in a way that would read phrases in praise of Rafsanjani.

Meanwhile, three members of Parliament have filed a complaint, requesting investigation of claims that Rahimi forged his doctorate.

1155 GMT: Poke, Poke, Poke. You might think that the Ahmadinejad Government, having gotten agreement to a series of talks and averted the prospect of tougher sanctions, might want to take a quiet, steady line.

No chance. The latest jab of the stick comes from the head of Iran's nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, who tells Kayhan that the second uranium enrichment plant at Fardoo will have the latest in high-technology centrifuges. In other words, the calmer narrative of Fardoo as a back-up to the main plant at Natanz will now be replaced, both by Tehran and by "Western" critics of engagement, with the portrayal of Fardoo as a front-line component in Iran's drive to nuclear energy (Iran version) or nuclear weapons ("Western" critics version).

1000 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has visited the home of the recently-released reformist leader Saeed Hajjarian. No details of the discussion have been offered.

0945 GMT: Earlier we noted the closure of Farhange Ashti, a newspaper close to Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the pro-reformist Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi by the Press Supervisory Board (0715 GMT). It is now reported that a third newspaper, Tahlil Rooz, has been shut.

0830 GMT: News arrives of a new Web project to offer English translations of German media on the post-election crisis in Iran. Some interesting material is already on-line.

0745 GMT: We've posted a brief analysis and transcript of an interview of former Obama Administration official Ray Takeyh and University of Tehran academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi on CNN. It's a textbook example of how, as Washington pursues engagement, the Ahmadinejad Government will link the talks to international and internal legitimacy.

0715 GMT: A quiet Tuesday so far. The Ahmadinejad Government has been playing up its international profile, calling the Geneva talks on the nuclear programme a “national success” for “Iran's resistance” to foreign pressure and emphasising that the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei “praised Iran's cooperation" in his Sunday press conference. (There was no reference to El Baradei's call for transparency from Tehran.) Ahmadinejad also proclaimed Iran's support for the Iraqi Government, framing it as an ally against unnamed opponents: "With fine qualities such as theirs, the Iraqi nation has a bright future ahead of it. It will undoubtedly stop its enemies in their tracks and take up its responsibilities with the understanding and foresight that it has."

Nothing further on the “National Unity Plan”. Nor has there been much from the Green movement or even from leading reformists since the weekend. So we are still stuck in trying to understand the politics behind a plan whose details are not known.

However, there was one very powerful signal on Monday of the internal battle between forces allied with Hashemi Rafsanjani and those who oppose his manoeuvres for “political reconciliation”. Farhange Ashti, a newspaper close to Rafsanjani, was closed on orders of the Press Supervisory Board. The pro-reformist Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi has also been shut.