The Latest from Iran (8 October): Will There Be a Fight?

NEW Green Tweets: Mapping Iran's Movement via Twitter
NEW Iran: A Telephone Poll on Politics You Can Absolutely Trust (Trust Us)
UPDATED Iran: Rafsanjani Makes A Public Move with “Friendship Principles”
UPDATED Iran: How a Non-Story about a Non-Jew Became Media Non-Sense
The Latest from Iran (7 October): Drama in Parliament?

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1900 GMT: It appears that the State Department's withdrawal of funding from four Iran-centred human rights organisations including the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center, which we noted yesterday, may get some media attention. Alex Massie of the British magazine The Spectator has written about the "shabby, and actually terrible" Government treatment of the groups, raising the concern of Andrew Sullivan of The Atlantic magazine.

1845 GMT: A University student newspaper has been closed by Government order after it implicitly accepted that the Holocaust had occurred.

1545 GMT: We're here, but it is a really slow news day, compounded by breakdowns in communication. Twitter seems to be out of action. Press TV's website is still leading with yesterday's story of the Supreme Leader's speech, and CNN has nothing beyond the disappearance of the Iranian nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri (see 1025 GMT).

1050 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi ("Iranbaan") has posted another set of updates on the conditions of detainees.

1025 GMT: Kidnappings and Talks. Both in Iranian and non-Iranian media, headlines are devoted to Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's allegation, "We have found documents that prove US interference in the disappearance of the Iranian pilgrim Shahram Amiri in Saudi Arabia."

The claim elevates an already murky story into the current power politics around Iran's nuclear program. Amiri is one of four Iranians who have "disappeared", whether through defection or kidnapping, since 2007. All four have been connected with Iran's military or nuclear programme. (Note that Press TV coyly refers to Amiri, beyond the "pilgrim" status, as "a researcher".) There have been allegations that the disappearances may be connected with an Israeli covert effort to cripple Iran's nuclear efforts.

Mottaki's statement, however, is connected more with an attempt to get leverage in the post-Geneva negotiations. The article uses comments by University of Tehran academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi to put further pressure on the US, "As long as the United States continues to behave in an unacceptable manner, I think it will be very difficult for Iranians to be convinced that true negotiations can lead to a fruitful conclusion." Marandi also applies that pressure to Iran's regional manoeuvres: "What is even more disturbing is the fact that the Saudi regime has effectively discredited itself and...will be seen by those who know what has gone on in the region as being confined to American demands and effectively abiding by American wishes."

0955 GMT: A Bit of Fun. Thanks to Persian Umpire, we have posted the ultimate telephone poll of Iranians on politics and President Ahmadinejad.

0915 GMT: The Death Sentence is Noticed. Reuters, citing the Green movement website Mowj-e-Sabz, has written about the death penalty imposed on Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani (see 0620 GMT).

0910 GMT: Parleman News offers an overview of yesterday's events in the Iranian Parliament. The focus is on Ali Larijani's success (and thus President Ahmadinejad's defeat) in winning re-election as head of the Principlist majority party, but there is also a bit of light-hearted banter between journalists and MPs over the question, "Where is my vote?"

0635 GMT: Following up our story of the morning (0600 GMT): Ayande News has an interview with Saeed Mortazavi (pictured), most of which is on the events surrounding Kahrizak Prison. Mortazavi minimises his role in the detentions and abuses, claiming that deaths occurred because of "prior injuries" rather than incidents at Kahrizak.

0620 GMT: Beyond the politics, a curious silence this morning on our last report of yesterday, the first death sentence passed on a post-election demonstrator, Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani. Possibly because the news has not been reported inside Iran, I cannot find a sign that the opposition has picked up on the development. If the death penalty is carried out, it could offer the symbolism of a martyr --- as with Neda Agha Soltan or Soltan Arabi --- for high-profile protest.

0600 GMT: The open challenge in Parliament to President Ahmadinejad, or at least to some high-profile officials, did not materialise yesterday, despite the existence of a report into post-election abuses which could be the foundation for that confrontation.

The document remained classified, and no one --- not even the reformist press --- broke out to make claims beyond the identification of two likely culprits, Iran Deputy Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi and Tehran police chief Ahmad Reza Radan.

That does not mean that the challenge has evaporated. To the contrary, there are enough signals from conservative/principlist members of Parliament to indicate anger with a Government which both oversaw and covered up the abuses. The symbolic catalyst for this is "Kahrizak", the prison where detainees were beaten, on occasion to death. One of those detainees was Mohsen Rohulamini, the son of a prominent academic and adviser to conservative Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, and it is his case that appears to have propelled the movement that someone has to answer for "crimes".

The question, as we noted yesterday, is how far that anger has translated into talks "across parties" not only to press the President on the report but to turn this into a wider attack on his authority.

We know that Hashemi Rafsanjani met principlist clerics on Tuesday. What we don't know is how much contact he has had with conservative/principlist politicians and officials within the Government. And we do not know what role the "Green movement", or rather its leaders, have in any discussions. It could be that the relative silence of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi in recent days is because they are now in talks which need time to produce action, or it could be that they are on the outside but waiting to see what occurs.

Throughout the crisis, EA readers have reminded me that Iranian politics is rarely measured in days or even weeks but in far longer periods. That timeframe seems to fit here.

The Latest from Iran (7 October): Drama in Parliament?

UPDATED Iran: Rafsanjani Makes A Public Move with "Friendship Principles"
UPDATED Iran: How a Non-Story about a Non-Jew Became Media Non-Sense
Video: 4 Clips from Tehran Azad University Protests (6 October)
The Latest from Iran (6 October): Loud Noises, Quiet Manoeuvres

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2130 GMT: A very depressing end to the day. The Committee on Human Rights Reporters has announced that Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani, a member of the The Association of Monarchists, is
to be executed by hanging for taking part in the demonstrations following the June elections. Zamani, who had no access to independent legal representation, was transferred on Monday from Section 29 of Evin Prison to Branch 15 of the Revolutionary Courts and his sentence was handed down by Judge Salavati.

To our knowledge, this is the first death sentence for a partipicant in post-election protest.

(http://chrr.us/spip.php?article6138)

1800 GMT: Disturbing article in Payvand that 10 of the 21 members of the "press court jury" have been replaced in elections. Out go Fatemeh Karoubi, wife of Etemade Melli party head Mehdi Karoubi, Masih Mohajeri, editor-in-chief of Jomhouri Eslami newspaper, and cleric Mohsen Doagu, all of whom have been critical of the Ahmadinejad administration. The news accompanies the closure of three more newspapers since Sunday.

1715 GMT: Report that 12 members of the Iran Teachers Union who were arrested on Tuesday (the day after World Teachers Day) have been released from detention.

1530 GMT: Let's Keep It Global, OK? Sure looks like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants to talk about matters other than domestic trifles. He appeared on Iran state television after a Cabinet meeting to confirm Tehran's willingness to consider "third-party enrichment" of its uranium, adding:

I think these negotiations were a step forward and I hope we proceed with the same trend so we will have constructive cooperation to resolve all outstanding global issues....In these negotiations we witnessed better behaviour than in the past from some countries and we noticed that the logic of respect and justice is being established gradually. These talks are good basis for continuation of the negotiations.

1319 GMT: Prompted by readers, we're investigating the story that the Obama Administration has cut funding to four Iran-centred human rights organisations. The only article so far, in Boston.com, considers the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center. The three other groups are not identified.

1315 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi ("Iranbaan") has updated on the condition of a number of detainees, including the two of 18 students who were not released after University protests last week.

1105 GMT: And Now A Distraction. Press TV summarises the Supreme Leader's public address in the northern city of Chalous:

The enemy started to throw mud and spread rumors in order to undermine and downplay this big political victory....The enemy caused unrest in a part of the country. We see that it is worried about the 85 percent participation of the Iranian nation in the presidential election....Iran's foes are angry with progress and development of the nation.

And so on and so on....

0915 GMT: OK, So We Did Talk. Aladdin Boroujerdi, the Head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has messed up the Government's "Maybe We Did, Maybe We Didn't" strategy by confirming that Iranian and American delegates did have bilateral discussions at the Geneva meeting on Iran's nuclear programme. Saeed Jalili, the lead Iranian negotiator, had denied that any 1-on-1 conversation took place.

0820 GMT: One source for the claim that Saeed Mortazavi is on the firing line for the Parliamentary report on post-election abuses (see 0740 GMT) is member of Parliament Ali Reza Zakani, who claims that documents will soon be produced for judicial authorities establishing Mortazavi's guilt.

0810 GMT: Ayatollah Dastgheib has written another letter criticising the handling of the post-election crisis, alleging that "military men" are the cause of "vices" in Iran.

0755 GMT: Is This A Confession of Fraud or An Attack on Larijani? In an interview, conservative member of Parliament Javad Karimi Ghadousi claims that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani wants a National Unity Government so that he can replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President. Ghadousi criticises Larijani for investigations of post election events, such as the raids on Tehran University dormitories and the abuses at Kahrizak Prison, "in defiance" of the Supreme Leader's statement that these were "side issues".

This, however, is the headline assertion: Larijani called Mir Hossein Mousavi on the night of the Presidential election to congratulate him on victory, and Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar wrote a letter to Ayatollah Khamenei that the regime has to accept and prepare for Mousavi as President.

0745 GMT: Back in Action (with a Great Headline). It looks like Mehdi Karroubi's Web presence has returned, with the repackaging of Tagheer on a different URL. It criticises proposed First Vice President Rahimi (see yesterday and 0530 GMT) with one of the best lines in the post-election crisis: "Fake Correspondence of Fake Minister in Fraudulent Government".

0740 GMT: News is coming out of the Iranian Parliament that while parts of the report on post-election abuses are classified, it does criticise --- as rumoured --- former Tehran Prosecutor General (now Iran Deputy Prosecutor General) Saeed Mortazavi and Tehran police chief Ahmad Reza Radan.

0550 GMT: Nothing to See Here. Not a word on Press TV's website about the internal political dynamics. Instead it goes for Iran in the World, with "the [Supreme] Leader...has said Iran's military advances are no a threat to any nation but instead are helping them progress 'without dependence' on the US."

Nothing in Fars News' headlines either; however, the Islamic Republic News Agency does feature a critique of "the archaeology of Hashemi Rafsanjani's National Unity Plan". The analyst, Mohammad Sajjad Nosrati, begins with an invocation of "the discourse of [French philosopher/sociologist] Michel Foucault" (somehow I can't see the same approach being applied to Barack Obama's health care plan in the US) before asserting that the Plan was put forth a few months before the Presidential election.

0530 GMT: After days of fencing and manoeuvring for position, we may see some interesting developments inside and around the Majlis today, as a Parliamentary committee is scheduled to present its report on post-election abuses.

Tensions between the President and conservative/principlist groups have been re-emerging, with hints that condemnation of episodes such as the crimes in Kahrizak Prison may have to name some names, pressing the Ahmadinejad Government to take the reprimand and offer up a scapegoat. That has been accompanied by a renewal of discontent over the President's choice of allies and cronies, with whispers becoming public grumbles about selections such as the First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi. And one should not overlook that the headline, "Supreme Leader Reshuffles Top Positions" at the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps and Basiji headquarters, sits on top of a continuing battle between the President and others to control the Ministry of Intelligence.

Still, the key word in the opening sentence above is "may". The Parliamentary report has already been delayed, and conservative/principlist critics may decide once again to put aside their differences with Ahmadinejad. For what we have yet to see in this crisis is a conservative/principlist decision to set aside their basic opposition to "reformists", allying with them at least temporarily to force changes from Ahmadinejad and the security forces.

And that in turn takes us to the heart of the confusion and tension over the "National Unity Plans", whether that is one Plan, two rival Plans, or even more. With a lot of attention on Hashemi Rafsanjani, the question has not been answered: is there any plan which has finally brought agreement between conservative/principlist groups and reformists to work together in a committee to bring signficant changes?