The Latest from Iran (3 October): Debating Mousavi's Strategy

NEW Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Obama’s Balance Wobbles
Iran Video: Football & “Ya Hossein! Mir Hossein!”
Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Big Win for Tehran at Geneva Talks
The Latest from Iran (2 October): Back to the Homefront

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2100 GMT: Just Back Away Slowly. Now this from the Iranian Government:

Atomic Energy Organization of Iran spokesman Ali Shirzadian said on Saturday that International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei’s two-day trip to Iran had previously been planned and is not linked to last Thursday’s talks between Iran and the 5+1 group.

2000 GMT: Rumour of the Day. No, it's not the one about Ahmadinejad being part-Jewish: the Daily Telegraph's "astonishing secret" is eight months old. Mehdi Khazali, the son of the late Ayatollah Khazali, posted the allegation eight months ago.

No, the more important loud whisper is that Major-General Hassan Firouzabadi, the head of Iran's armed forces, is being removed from his post. We held off reporting this, as there was no supporting evidence, but now his office has felt the story was serious enough to issue a denial.

1945 GMT: Mehdi Mirdamadi, the son of Mohsen Mirdamadi, the Secretary-General of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released after 17 days in detention.

1635 GMT: Amidst all the confusion over the claimed drafts of National Unity Plans (see 1040 GMT), Pedestrian offers a thoughtful and pointed analysis. There are two drafts, one which would have be inclusive of opposition figures such as Mousavi and Karroubi and one put about by hard-liners who want to steal the limelight and quash an inclusive arrangement:

Now, the other side doesn’t want to be left behind and is trying to release a plan of their own. They don’t want the Mousavi camp to be the group to come up with “the” national unity plan. Which is just funny, since Mousavi and Rafsanjani after him were the ones who have been talking about a plan for months. RajaNews and FarsNews sound like a kid who suddenly decides to steal his classmate’s homework.

Sure, they could have waited for Mousavi’s and ignored it, but they know that it will be read by a whole lot of people, “national unity” is of utmost importance right now, and as much as they can yell and holler that nothing has happened, they know the cords it will strike and they want theirs to be front page news.

1616 GMT: Spinning Out the Game. First, it was the denial by Saeed Jalili's spokesman that Iran had agreed to "third-party enrichment". Now a member of the Iranian delegation from the Geneva talks says not only that no agreement was made on delivery of uranium to a country such as Russia but also that there was no deal on inspection of the second enrichment plant near Qom in the next two weeks: "In the Thursday talks, Iran elaborated on its package of proposals and how to implement them… and it was agreed that negotiations should continue on Iran’s package of proposals and the common points in this package and the package drawn up by the other side, and there was no other agreement.”

1610 GMT: International Atomic Energy Agency Mohammad El Baradei has arrived in Tehran to discuss arrangements for the inspection of Iran's second uranium enrichment facility.

1435 GMT: MediaCheck (EA v. CNN, Round 78) . Enduring America ($0/story), 2 October, 0700 GMT: "Big Win for Tehran at Geneva Talks".

CNN ($199/story), 3 October, 1320 GMT: "Iran is Winner in Nuclear Talks, At Least for Now"

1420 GMT: The reformist leader Saeed Hajjarian, detained for 100 days until he was bailed this week, has told the youth section of the Islamic Iran Participation Front of his stay in prison. He was totally cut off from the outside world and was unaware of events. He was held in solitary confinement in Evin Prison for a month and, after his transfer to another location, was only in contact with interrogators.

Hajjarian claimed that interrogators told him of many people killed in fighting and a big gap has been created between the authorities and the Iranian people, all due to his theories of reform. He added that he could hear people chanting “God is Great” outside Evin Prison, boosting his spirits.

1410 GMT: All 15 members of the Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat (Unity Consolidation Bureau) reformist student group who were arrested on Friday morning have been released. One of the members told Deutsche Welle that these blind arrests are signs that the authorities are confused on how to deal with the protests.

1400 GMT: Press TV is now headlining the denial of the spokesman for Iran's National Security Council that Tehran "reached a deal with world powers to ship its enriched uranium abroad for further processing". The Secretary of the NSC, Saeed Jalili, is Iran's lead negotiator on the nuclear issue.

1200 GMT: Sir, It Was Not Me. Saeed Jalili, Iran's lead negotiator at the Geneva talks, has denied the widespread report that he and his US counterpart, William Burns, had a 30-minute 1-on-1 discussion during lunch. They "might have exchanged a few words during the lunch break with other delegations present". (See also our separate analysis.)

1050 GMT: Reports that some of the 15 or more student activists of Daftar-Takhim-Vadat, detained yesterday, have been released.

1040 GMT: The Plan (and A Breakthrough)? After 48 hours of quiet, some movement on the purported National Unity Plan.

Parleman News reports that the "Iran Conciliation Plan" is close to a final draft. Provisions include a release of post-election detainees, a change in the "attitude" of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, allowing both sides 2 voice their views, and an end to the "security atmosphere".

Mediators for the plan are named as Hassan Khomeini (Imam Khomeini's grandson), Hashemi Rafsanjani, Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani, Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli, and a few other prominent senior clerics.

Mediators have approached Mir Hossein Mousavi in the past weeks. He has indicated that he approves the grand design and is discussing minor changes. And here's the big shift: for the first time since drafts of a plan surfaced, it is reported that Mehdi Karroubi is also being asked to approve the initiative.

"Informed sources" have said that prisoner release and a change in Government could occur within days, as well as the arrest and prosecution of some "rogue" officials and demotion of others.

Now for a caution: this is the second "draft" to have appeared; the first, published in Fars News, provoked much comment and criticism that it was not the "real" plan. So, while this latest news is imporant, we await other signs that this indeed is the working scheme for reconciliation.

0805 GMT: Wow. The editorial staff at The New York Times must have been taking multi-strength vitamins (or getting words in their ears from those in the Obama Administration who aren't thrilled about the talks with Iran):

This is no time for complacency or wishful thinking. The United States and its partners must push Iran to open all of its declared nuclear facilities and allow inspectors to interview any Iranian scientist they choose to — the only way to figure out what else Iran may be hiding. The leading powers must also be ready to impose tough sanctions if Iran resists or if negotiations go nowhere.

0750 GMT: Chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili has repeated: "Within the framework of the IAEA and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the nuclear watchdog will be allowed to inspect the [second] nuclear site as it has been the case with the Natanz nuclear facility."

0730 GMT: Leading Principlist MP Hamid-Reza Katouzian has raised questions about the Parliamentary commission that is supposedly investigating post-election abuses. He notes that its composition is not "diverse", "its legal status is unclear", and it has not yet met.

0725 GMT: The commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, has launched a pre-emptive strike against any plan for national unity, arguing that it is unnecessary given the legitimacy of the Presidential election and the strength of the Iranian system.

0700 GMT: Gary Sick, whose analysis on US-Iranian relations is always to be valued, yesterday put the "surprisingly productive" tag on the Geneva talks on Iran's nuclear programme. Juan Cole also held this view, adding, "Obama pwns Bush-Cheney on Iran", and this was soon picked up by other commentators such as Andrew Sulivan.

I share the hope that this is a breakthrough but, at the same, my concern (and that of EA colleagues) was that Geneva was being overplayed as a US victory "wringing concessions" out of the Iranians. The portrayal also obscured, even ignored, the tensions that continue within the Obama Administration.

So this morning "significant progress" has turned into "significant doubts" with the Obama Administration falling into confusion and squabbles over whether to welcome the engagement with Iran or to wag a finger of warning. We've got a separate analysis, "Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Obama’s Balance Wobbles".

0555 GMT: We're back after taking Friday night off to recharge.

Many thanks to our readers for a discussion which I think offers some of the best analysis of the internal politics, possibilities, and challenges. Where else on the Internet can you find a thorough discussion of Tehran Mayor Qalibaf, who may become a key figure in a plan for political resolution?

One of the questions which continues to occupy us is the strategy of Mir Hossein Mousavi. I have been sceptical of Mousavi's move "into the tent", setting aside a front of political opposition for a social network and apparent negotiation within the system, through a role on a committee for 2national unity. (My concern is not as much about Mousavi's decision as it is about the exclusion of Mehdi Karroubi from the process.) Our readers, however, have been considering the idea that Mousavi is fulfilling the long-term approach of the Green Wave; recognising that head-on confrontation will only lead to the crushing of the movement, he is seeking reform through some co-operation with the establishment's inquiries and re-evaluations. Still others don't trust Mousavi at all because of his past record, particularly as Prime Minister in the 1980s.

Very little movement on the internal front so far this morning, however, from Mousavi or anyone else.

Comments

[Afshin]

Normally I tend to downdrill to a more detailed level but following on yesterdays discussion I am placing a more general post for a change.

I feel more and more that the time where Iranian people were driven and controlled by Islam is mostly over in the cities, the time when the word of the clergy on any subject was considered the truth and had to be obeyed is long over, hence with it the ayatollah rule is coming to an end. If not today then tommorow. It is almost over politically but perhaps more importantly as well spiritually.

Once the great majority of those people embrace democracy, human rights, freedom of speech, freedom of press and religion change will happen and become unstopable. The only way to a true democracy is through the minds of the people.

The big question now is, is this Iran ready for a western style democracy or will it allow fascisme to take over ?

[Catherine]

RE 07:00 GMT: Having just watched the State Dept press briefing, the first thing that popped into my mind was that crowing “Barack Obama pwned Bush-Cheney in one day, and got more concessions from Iran in 7 1/2 hours than the former administration got in 8 years of saber-rattling,” is just as premature as Mr Obama's and other US spokespersons' statements, echoed in the press, about Iran’s *agreement* to invite IAEA inspections the Qom facility, to ship uranium to Russia to be enriched, and to act within all the deadlines quoted. It also shows how easily those who want Obama get quick results that will silence his internal critics and to succeed where Bush failed are sucked into the same spin being put out by an Administration that is desperate to achieve the same.

[Catherine]

RE: The editorial staff at The New York Times must have been taking multi-strength vitamins (or getting words in their ears from those in the Obama Administration who aren’t thrilled about the talks with Iran)

...... or..... Rupert Murdoch bought the NYT on the sly

[Peter]

While the NYT may be progressive on many social issues, it can be downright hawkish on those foreign policy issues that are of concern to Israel as the NYC metropolitan area has the highest population of self-identified Jews outside of Israel itself. Of all of America's prominent newspapers, it was the NYT which took the lead in unquestioningly beating the drums of war for Iraq with Judy Miller's now discredited articles on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.

Given AN's continuing denials of the holocaust and his continuing predictions of the end of Israel, Jewish concern over Iran's actions is not entirely unwarranted. Regardless of whether or not he's just a puppet, comments like his are highly disturbing from another country's president, especially when that country is suspected of having a secret nuclear weapons program. So the NYT's response really isn't much of a surprise.

[Megan]

NYT hawiksh??? That is really funny.

[Tricia Sutherland]

I am so fed up with all this diversion onto the nuclear issues. IF Iran has nuclear capabilities (and I mean for war purposes), if they are not just playing games here, then I believe those capabilities are 5 years or so down the line. I also believe that Ahmadinejad is using his appearance at the UN, and all his rhetoric, to divert attention from the real issue here, which is the appalling human rights abuses taking place now, today, in Iran. These human rights abuses have been going on for the past 30 years under the Islamic Republic and yes, they went on under the Shah's authority as well. I surely dont think that Reza Pavlova as I call him is the saviour as some Monarchists seem to think he would be. But, I dont understand why our World Leaders (and I am in the UK) are not shouting from the loudest rooftops, about the news we are all seeing, day after day, about rapes, beatings, executions, people going missing, bodies being buried in secret, in between other graves in Tehran cemeteries! They can't not believe all these stories surely? And how can they say "Well this is an internal issue"? It's not an internal issue! It's a World Issue!!! Ok, i've had my rant and rave, I've ranted and raved to my politicians, my press and TV, my radio stations etc etc. And, do you know what, I have not had the courtesy of one reply ... how sad is that? But I will not give up!

[Afshin]

@ 1040 GMT:

Perhaps a second caution, just because one asks something it does not mean one gets it....!!! Lets see how the S.L and the Guards re-act on the plan..

Well actually just the S.L as the Guards have allready denounced it and have said that no such plan is needed.

[Bill Davit]

Afshin,

I agree with your sentiments about theocracy and democracy. I think Iran is leading the Middle east simply because of their emphasis on education and relative openess to other cultures. The Arab world is trying but is way behind because they are sitll much more resistent to change. I think as the Muslim world catches up with the West in terms of education, human rights, democarcy, and their economy you will see more of what is happening in Iran. I like to look back to the reformation, renaissance, and industrial/scietific revolution in Europe as an example of this haven taken place in History already.

The west in general embraced greek/helenistic thought which allowed them to think of things like experimentation, freedom of association, the idea of a corporation, and critical thinking. This put Western civilization in a much better position ealier on to throw off the chains of religious intolerance. I don't believe Christianity had the level of rigidity Islam had but it had its periods of downright oppression and obstinance towards change.

As I noted in some other post the Islamic world largely rejected greek thought and critical thinking. This lead to bans like linguistic comparision(learning other languages) in the 12 century, philosophy, prohibition of music/art/poetry, and a ban on the idea to question things that contradicted scripture. The ban on Music and Art is a prime example and many fail to realize the impact they have had on civilization.

Music for example was a huge catalyst in group dynamics through the use of harmony. Harmony taught early western society that the sum of many could produce a greater effect than individually. Art on the other hand portrayed alternative perspective. Harmony and the ability to put things in perspecitve are a large basis of western thought. By largely not embracing these the Islamic world put itself in a bind unable to see or accept things that were not revealed in scripture.

That is all now changing. It is my belief is were now seeing a reformation like movement in the Islamic world. The Islamic world is embracing education, music, the arts, critical thinking, and the concept of basic individual human rights. The worry is it has also created a movement of those trying to go back in history to claim a utopia that never trully existed, the Caliphate. This movement is dangerous because despite being in the minority they do largely control the ideological stance of the Islamic world. I suspect things will get worse in the nerm term but overall the majority who want freedom will win out long term. Many liberal scholars in the Islamic world have stated as much and the Green Wave is a manifestation of this reform. It is terrifying yet beautiful to see it unfold before our eyes!

Thx
Bill

[Afshin]

@ Bill Davit

Well actuallt the Christian world did their fair share during the middle ages, funnily enough the crusaded and very much the influences from the Moslim world led to the renaissance in the west and now the exact opposite is happening.

[hasty]

@Tricia
As an iranian I thank you so much for being sensible unlike many (as you are one of the few specialy in UK), having your ayes opened to the reality of Iran's most important issues, being concerned and having ranted and raved to all those that you have (please don't be shy with the BBC). and I know how anying that not getting any reply is. But most of all I should and want to thank and do admire you for not giving up, so I do THANK YOU :*
@Afshin
HMMMM, what do you think yourself? are they ready?th epeople of Iran?

[Pedestrian » Blog Archiv]

[...] News, the website that belongs to reformist MPs, wrote that the “Iran Conciliation Plan” is close to a final draft. All sorts of issues will be addressed, including state of prisoners, and [...]

[Afshin]

NOW THIS IS COMEDY... hahahaha

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/6256173/Mahmoud-Ahmadinejad-revealed-to-have-Jewish-past.html

Did I hear someone say "Self hating Jew".. !!?

[whereismyvote]

Afshin

Mr. AN's Jewish past (article above) is not new. it came out in the Iranian parliament some 8 months ago and it was censored. The MP voicing the concerns was also punished. If true or not, who knows, but it definitely is something they have used against him to discredit him on a few occasions. The UK press taking up the cause is new however, cause up to now it was internal to Iranians. Call this the card of mis information.

[Ali]

@Afshin - This is an unbelievable article. Didn't Hitler also have some Jewish ancestors? I can't help but see the parallels.

@Bill Davit - I think your analysis of Islam is quite accurate, but I'd like to add another component to it, which is the politicization of Islam, which is what we're experiencing in the middle east today. The problem with Christianity in the middle ages was the mixture of religion and state. It was only after the two got separated that we saw the renaissance era in Europe. I do admit however that all things being equal, Christianity is a more tolerant religion than Islam.

Regarding the state of affairs in Iran, I have a somewhat more pessimistic view than most. What's not being discussed enough is the IRGC. It's no longer a military organization created to protect the revolution, but it has become a multi-faceted organization that controls the military, much of the economy and many of the politicians. I really don't think it's any longer about religion, but it's about protecting the IRGC assets. IRGC has effectively become a state-run mafia. For that reason I'm more pessimistic about the future of the country and have been leaning towards the neocon view that the best way to get rid of them is foreign interference or invasion. Unfortunately, I don't see any of that happening. I hope I'm wrong with my assessment but that's how I see things.

[Yseut]

@Afshin, Whereismyvote

Did you notice ,several 'weird' news in global medias followed late AN
performance in N.Y, a resurgence of the arrests, tortures and rapes cases
in opponents ranks re-mentioned, between other things...
As if the negativity/arrogance conveyed by AN/IRI's regime had to be on
front stage, full flesh and bone, for the medias to remember what's really going
on INside Iran -and have a go at the subject...Now what's new indeed (for me
at least) is to learn about an iranian MP 'voicing concern' at AN 'Jewish past'
and being punished for it -or that this rumour?reality? serving as dicrediting
tool against him ! Poor sod ! ;- )

Press cartoon : AN depressed between angry MPs at home and scolding
western leaders at the UN tribune
"Life ain't easy dude, i swear, between antisemits and islamophobes...!"

[Megan]

@ Ali

Smart people on the ground in Iran recognize that as well. That is why they do not mind surgical and targeted strike on military assets.

[Arshama]

@ Afshin

I agree with you, especially after Mr. Sho'le Saadi's analysis in today's debate on VOA Persian (he is a renowned political analyst in Iran).
As to your question, if the Iranian people is ready for a Western style democracy: Yes, it is, but it is lacking necessary informations about the functioning of a democracy, and the second problem is the lack of political parties.
As long as the the Green Movement has no written political programme, it has a legitimacy deficit in the world. As to be expected Mousavi is searching for an - impossible - solution within this system, while the people demand real freedom.
Sho'le Saadi did not exclude the militarization of the Movement, if peaceful protests lead to no end. Mousavi and all his allies should be aware of this danger.

@ Bill Davit

Obviously you are not informed about the fact that many Greek philosophers were made available to the Christian world by Arab philosophs and translators like Avicenna (Ibn Sina), Averroes (Abu Reyhan Biruni) and Farabi.
I also advise you to have some readings about the so-called "Toledo's translator school" in the 13th century or Leon Feuchtwanger's famous novels on medieval Spain.
Imho Iran is acting as a catalyst for reformatory efforts in the Islamic world. As the IRI has prooved its failure, the next step would be a genuine reconsideration of Islamic religious foundations. So far many Iranian thinkers have approved a hollow compromise between conflicting systems, but Sorush's fierce critique of the IRI is promising.

[Scott Lucas]

For the original revelations from January 2009 on Ahmadinejad's "Jewish ancestry" by Mehdi Khazali, son of the late Ayatollah, see http://www.rferl.org/content/Were_Ahmadinejads_Ancestors_Jews_/1375318.html.

S.

[Samuel]

The fact that AN has Jewish roots has been well known for some time now. Not a big deal, Judaism is not the problem Zionism is.
Now if someone finds out that AN was actually once a Zionist then we have a problem.

The whole notion that dismantling the Zionist Israeli state means the mass murder of the Jews is nonsense. The Apartheid state of South Africa was similarly dismantled but millions of whites (Afrikaners, English and some Jews plus Indians) continue to live happily in that great country.

[Yseut]

Medias Puppet-Show Daily
Old news exhumed in western medias and new 'B-plan' brandished in IRI
Thumb ups to Press-TV, the statement about Firouzabadi a tiny master piece
in its kind (how to say and not say something that shouldn't be said- or
should it....where are my pills ?)

[Norman]

The good link for the original article "jews ancestors of AN
http://www.rferl.org/content/Were_Ahmadinejads_Ancestors_Jews_/1375318.html

[Scott Lucas]

Norman,

Thanks. Have corrected in main text.

S.

[MD]

@Bill Davit,

In support of Arshama's response to your post ,
I am sending you the following link -
an article by the prominent philosopher Slavoj Zizek,
written right after the election :

http://supportiran.blogspot.com/2009/06/slavoj-zizeks-new-text-on-iran.html

Please do not miss his conclusion where he speaks of "genuine liberating potential in Islam" as IRI model is failing and also that :

" we are witnessing a great emancipatory event which doesn’t fit the frame of the struggle between pro-Western liberals and anti-Western fundamentalists"

[Hamid]

Folks, my 2 cents:
1. Why should anyone care whether AN is of Jewish or Arab or Chinese descent?? What matters are his thinking and actions. The fact is that he's an appalling human being, and that has nothing to do with his origins. I find it very disturbing that any of his opponent in Iran would attack him because of his ancestry rather than for his actual crimes.
2. A "surgical" strike on IRI military assets will have disastrous consequences for the freedom movement. Let's not even think of it as a solution.
3. Afshin had asked a fundamental question that I think got lost among other discussions: "is Iran ready for a western style democracy or will it allow fascism to take over ?" I'm more optimistic about the prospect of a democratic Iran than in the past. My reasons in a nutshell: (a) education; (b) having seen two different forms of authoritarian regimes utterly fail; (c) a middle class that's enormously grown over the last 50 years but that's conscious that it's now stuck because of the absence of the rule of law that provides the essential security, safety and equality of opportunity; (c) last but not least, a substantial increase in the number of people (mostly the young) who disagree with the calamitous but traditional Iranian conspiracy theory that "Iranian are powerless and all decisions are decided and dictated by foreigners" (US, UK, Russia, ... depending on one's particular mindset). The new generation believes in "Yes we can!" activism and that is my biggest hope for establishing democracy in Iran.
Of course, we first must unveil for all the mafia structure of the IRGC and strip them of respect and credibility so that they don't attempt to become another Suharto.

[Cyrus]

The dog that barkes never bites, Mousavi does alot of barking but no bite, No wonder the Guards and SL rejected the unity plan without consideration. Mousavi needs to take off his gloves and throw a few punches.
Hamid; you're right, we must unveil the mafia structure of the guards. I've studied organized crime, in particular the us-italian mafia; the best way to decimate a mob family is an internal war, (the colombos) now the guards are smart, they got rid of the commanders suspected of being reformist friendly. so an internal war within the guards is not likely at this point, all though at least half the footsoldiers and some mid-ranking officers are opposed to AN. Now we could see the middle management of the guards changing "family". One thing is certain, the declaration of war from the guards against Hashemi and his mafia family, The guards have muscles,Hashemi has brains.

Victory attained by violence is tantamount to a defeat, for it is momentary