The Latest from Iran (14 October): Watching Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and the Supreme Leader's Health

NEW Iran-US-Russia Deal on Enrichment, The Sequel
Latest Iran Video: Selling Ahmadinejad's Economic Plan (13 October)
Iran: Tehran’s Growing Confidence Against the Israeli Threat
Iran: Rafsanjani Statement on “False News” (13 October)
Latest Iran Video: The Shiraz Protest Against Ahmadinejad (12 October)
Video: Protest at Tehran Azad University (13 October)
The Latest from Iran (13 October): Government Threatens Karroubi

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2025 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has issued a thinly-veiled challenge to the Revolutionary Guard through another statement. Focusing on the abuses of the armed forces, he declares, "Some think that because they have guns they should exercise the power of their guns and use it everywhere. In any society that wants to be obedient, its armed forces should not be cruel but rather be compassionate and merciful."

2000 GMT: Remember how we started this morning with a letter from Hashemi Rafsanjani, criticising and warning about "false news" to discredit him? Well, consider this from Javan Online, a publication closely linked with the Revolutionary Guard, as reported by Tabnak:

"Since the inauguration of the 10th administration, I believe in its legitimacy. Presently Mr. [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad attends the Expediency Council meetings as president, with invitations signed by myself," Rafsanjani said in a meeting with Iranian political figures in favor of the national unity plan.

It's not surprising that Javan would put this story, whether or not it is accurate. What is surprising is that, in light of Rafsanjani's warning that the only reliable news about him would come either from his website or the offices of the Expediency Council, an important website like Tehran Bureau would reprint Javan's claim without reflection.

1850 GMT: Amidst a quiet domestic news day, we've picked up on the international story missed by most of the media, "Iran-US-Russia Deal on Enrichment, The Sequel".

1500 GMT: The Facebook page associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi has responded to the Government threats to take Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to court with the reminder, "In case of the arrest of any of the Green movement’s leaders, we will take to the streets from 'Revolution' to 'Freedom' Square. The network [will use] media mobilization (SMS, email, flyer, wall notices, posters, Internet) for raising widespread awareness until the emergence of the Green army . (English summary via Iran News Digest)

1250 GMT: Amidst a lull in political developments, and as part of our increasing attention to the economic context, we've posted a two-part video from Press TV examining (and ultimately selling) President Ahmadinejad's economic proposals.

0805 GMT: We've posted what I think may be one of the most revealing analyses from within Iran, written by Dr Mahmoud Reza Golshanpazhooh, on the country's international position, "Tehran’s Growing Confidence Against the Israeli Threat".

0655 GMT: According to Peykeiran, a fifth death sentence over post-election conflict and "subversion" has been handed out to a "Davoud Mir Ardebili". The report claims that Ardebili is not a monarchist, the allegation made against three other condemned men, but merely called a radio station to report union protests.

0650 GMT: Today's Puffing of the Chest. Brigadier General Hussein Salami, the deputy commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps says,"Unlike the wrong conception of the enemies, Iran is strong and invincible."

No further comment or meat-related jokes necessary.

0640 GMT: Watching the Economy. Press TV's website has a must-read story betraying nervousness over both Iran's economic situation and the politics around the headline measure, Ahmadinjead's proposed subsidy reform.

The story begins with apparent good news, with a fall in the annual inflation rate from 20.2 percent to 18.5 percent. However, the headline also notes, "Jobless Rate Soars", rising to 11.3 percent from 10.2 percent over the summer.

And here's the stinger of the piece: "Economists fear that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's subsidy reform plan, which aims to gradually cut energy and food subsidies, will hike up inflation. The Iranian parliament has approved the outline of the bill, but lawmakers are still at odds over the details of the plan."

Our initial reading of the push for subsidy cuts, with the impulse being the worsening budget situation of the Iran Government, was too narrow. There are good structural reasons to reform the system, though I am uncertain how much these factor into Ahmadinejad's calculations. Far more significant --- and provocative --- is the President's political scheme, taking some of the money saved from the cuts and distributing it to Iran's poorest people.

0620 GMT: Our starting point today will be a close eye on the next steps of two key figures, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mehdi Karroubi.

Rafsanjani surfaced yesterday to publish a letter via Iranian Labor News Agency, denying "false news" of a letter that he and Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi-Kani supposedly sent to Mir Hossein Mousavi on 28 September. We think this is a reference to the claimed "National Unity Plan", "revealed" by Fars News that day. At this point, however, Rafsanjani's step is a defensive move, fending off pressure from the Government and media who oppose him, rather than a major political step. We have an analysis and English translation of the letter in a separate entry.

The situation around Mehdi Karroubi is more dramatic. The Government threat to prosecute him, issued yesterday by two high-level officials, is a clear response --- showing nervousness as well as supposed strength --- to the resurgence of Karroubi's public statements, especially his Saturday meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi.

So, to be blunt, we're wondering, "Does Karroubi back down?", and we're thinking, "No." His response to the Government's ham-fisted warning, which following similar threats over the last two months --- may not come today, but I would look for a clear signal from the cleric by the weekend.

Meanwhile, a brief article in Peiknet has stoked the fire of rumours about the poor state of the Supreme Leader's health. The website claims that three doctors were summoned urgently to Ayatollah Khamenei's house and, after examining him, insisted that he cancel all public and Government meetings and stay at home, with only his family seeing him. To our knowledge, no other source has corroborated the Peiknet assertion.

Rumors that the Supreme Leader has cancer, specifically prostate cancer, have persisted for years --- our readers have discussed these in comments. For now, we'll keep watch, especially to see if Khamenei stays out of public view.

Iran: Tehran's Growing Confidence Against the Israeli Threat

Arms and the Middle East: Was Halted German Ship Carrying Ammunition from Iran to Syria?
The Latest from Iran (14 October): Watching Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and the Supreme Leader’s Health

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Iran Review has posted an interesting essay by Dr Mahmoud Reza Golshanpazhooh considering "the extent of Israel’s isolation in the world". The article starts from the controversy over the Goldstone Report on the Gaza War, but it quickly moves to "Israel['s] game of posing military threats to Iran’s nuclear facilities". Golshanpazhooh notes shrewdly, "This policy has got an expiry date because the more it is repeated, the less it would be taken seriously by the audience", and then links Gaza, Palestine, and Iran in a challenging conclusion:

it is time to add another variable to Israel’s threat analyses on possibility or impossibility of an Israeli attack on Iran: Israel’s international prestige....Tel Aviv cannot possibly afford to further damage its international image in return for destruction of nuclear facilities where no international body [or] intelligence agency (even that of Israel) has been able to prove any deviation from non-peaceful military activities.

Golpanshooh is an academic, rather than Government official, but if his view is shared by Tehran's bureaucracy (and I think it is), then Iran's international strategy is now based on a stronger bargaining position.

Israel: International Prestige & Attacking Iran’s Nuclear Facilities

First: On September 29, the meeting at the United Nations Human Rights Council was quite different from the preceding days. Security was tight, entries and exits were controlled, there were limitations for representatives of nongovernmental organizations and media crews and all seats were occupied to prove that the day’s agenda was a special one. In fact, it was nothing but the report of the Human Rights Council’s fact-finding mission on the war in Gaza with its author, Justice Richard Goldstone, and his three colleagues doing their best to show that it has been based on justice and objective observation.

The report proved that Israel’s violations of human rights and international humanitarian laws were much more numerous than those by Hamas. The interesting point was the anti-Israeli atmosphere which dominated the meeting. Almost all the participating countries had asked for the chairman’s permission to talk about this issue and almost all of them talked against Israel’s measures in Gaza. Few countries, mostly Western, which usually try to change the balance in such meetings in favor of Israel, issued their statements by emphasizing that Hamas should pay more attention to the findings in the report and also questioned Justice Goldstone about the process of the report writing and its credibility.

In that meeting, the extent of Israel’s isolation in the world, especially when the world public opinion was concerned, was clear to me.

Second: Announcements about Iran building a second uranium enrichment facility around Qom have rekindled debates about a possible attack on those facilities by Israel. Some analysts maintain that Israel is losing this opportunity and if it did not attack Iran as soon as possible it would regret that in the future. Others, however, maintain that construction of the new facility has proven to Israel that the success of a military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is much less possible than what Israeli radical figures try to show. The second group of analysts believes that Iran has implied to Israel that it is capable of rebuilding its nuclear facilities by relying on local know-how and has made Israel more doubtful that Iran may have other nuclear facilities which are still hidden and out of the reach of the Israeli military.

Third: I read a sentence somewhere, which was very interesting to me. It noted that if Israel continued its game of posing military threats to Iran’s nuclear facilities there would be a time when Tel Aviv would have to give up its “hold me back” posture and actually attack those installations just to maintain its international prestige. In fact, this policy has got an expiry date because the more it is repeated, the less it would be taken seriously by the audience that, at times, even anticipate the attack to see what happens next.

During the past years, Israel has relentlessly told the world about Iran’s threat to the international system; has frequently charged the country with supporting Lebanese and Palestinian groups; has time and time again threatened various officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran; has been anxious about any trivial change of course in West’s policy toward Iran; has resorted to every means to prevent Iran-West détente; has increased its espionage activities in some neighboring countries of Iran; has warned Russia, India, and China about expanding relations with Iran; has blamed Iran for its failures in Palestine; and on the whole, has spared no attempt to depict Iran as a monster which world yearn to annihilate. Benjamin Netanyahu’s remarks at this year’s meeting of the United Nations General Assembly proved that how deeply-rooted this policy is among Israeli officials.

Perhaps it is time to add another variable to Israel’s threat analyses on possibility or impossibility of an Israeli attack on Iran: Israel’s international prestige. This variable, in my opinion, outweighs the possible response of Iran to an Israeli attack through the Hezbollah or Hamas and even more important than the low probability that Israel could take out all Iranian nuclear facilities in a military attack. In fact, after 60 years of occupation, Israel’s behavior has shown that there is little hope for Tel Aviv to gain face with the world public opinion. It makes no difference whether a radical is in office or a reconciliatory one. Israel’s international image is tainted and perhaps beyond remedy. Some may say that Iran’s image is also not optimal, but let’s not forget which side is posing threats against which and where all the threats, machinations and intrigues come from. I also know that prestige has nothing to do with a decision on launching a major military assault just in the same way that the United States attacked Iraq in defiance of international public opinion. However, Israel is not at the same level as the United States. Prestige is of vital significance to Israel. Tel Aviv cannot possibly afford to further damage its international image in return for destruction of nuclear facilities where no international body and even intelligence agency (even that of Israel) has been able to prove any deviation from non-peaceful military activities.