Latest Iran Video: The Media Fair Demonstrations (25 October)

The Latest on Iran (25 October): Expectation Rises

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Outside the Mossalla

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVIzknzeiag[/youtube]

The Latest on Iran (25 October): Expectation Rises

NEW Iran's American Prisoner: The Case of Kian Tajbakhsh (Continued with 15 Years in Jail)
Iran: Football’s Going Green (with the help of Press TV)
Iran: The Karroubi Effect
Iran: Karroubi Statement on Events at Iran Media Fair
Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)

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0825 GMT: Norooz has published the names of 19 reformist activists and family members, out of 71 arrested on Thursday night at the home of detainee Shahabeddin Tabatabei, transferred to Evin Prison.

0753 GMT: Nuclear Deal Still On? Your latest clue, courtesy of Press TV, that the Iranians want an agreement on enrichment: a high-profile splash on the US and Russian positions, "Medvedev, Obama find talks with Iran 'positive'".

Your latest clue, courtesy of Press TV and Iran's Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, that Tehran will spin out the process a bit longer, manoeuvring for best possible terms on "third-party enrichment" and assuring the Iranian people that it is negotiating from strength: "Iran asserts that its offer to buy nuclear fuel from the West is purely a confidence-building measure, as it has the technology to enrich uranium up to 20 percent."

0750 GMT: We've updated the story of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, now sentenced to 15 years in prison, with an article by Karim Sadjadpour.

0615 GMT: A morning where the significant movement is on the Iranian nuclear question. The inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency should begin their work at Iran's second uranium enrichment facility, at Fardoo near Qom, today --- Al Jazeera has video. That story will dominate "Western" coverage of Iran, possibly matched by speculation and worry over Tehran's deliberations on the Vienna agreement on enrichment. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani stirred up confusion yesterday, as we noted, with his criticism of the proposal --- still no clue, in the dramatic US-UK coverage, whether Larijani speaks for anyone (say the Supreme Leader) other than himself.

Inside Iran, however, the hot-button question yesterday was whether Mir Hossein Mousavi and/or Mohammad Khatami had showed up at the Tehran Media Fair, a day after Mehdi Karroubi appeared.

Hours later, there was no confirmation, only the continuing rumours that Khatami had been inside the Fair and Mousavi had tried to enter but turned away on the advice of security forces. Personally, I do not think either happened --- the story about Mousavi, in particular, was being pushed by pro-Government media to show the opposition leader's weakness when challenged.

Yet a non-story is still a signal. The buzz over Mousavi and Khatami amplifies the message, which we noted and evaluated yesterday, that the opposition movement is ready for another go at the regime. Fatigue and resignation give way to excitement. How much that translates into hope, rather than the energy for another show of frustration and anger, is an important but as of now unanswerable question.

Still, I think it's notable that yet another high-profile if confused Government attempt to break resistance --- the arrest of the 60 reformists and their relatives this week --- has lost its force. Indeed, the continued detention of some of the 60 contributes to the anger/frustration seen at the Media Fair and beyond. That, I suspect, will be doubly true because of the taking of women who have no "political" position in this conflict apart from the relationship to their husbands.

Caveats have to be played on the above reading. Once again, we are seeing events which are almost exclusively in Tehran. While there are significant reports of demonstrations outside the capital, especially at universities and in factories (EA sources in particular are watching Shiraz), it is impossible to assess how far the challenge to the regime extends. At the same time, what happens in Tehran --- even if it is propelled by a "minority", as pro-Government interpretation will claim --- will have a ripple effect, 4 1/2 months after the Presidential election.

It is 10 days to 13 Aban (4 November).

Iran's American Prisoner: The Case of Kian Tajbakhsh (Continued with 15 Years in Jail)

Iran’s American Detainee: The Case of Kian Tajbakhsh
Iran: How the Regime Constructed the “Velvet Revolution”

In early August, we featured the case of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, arrested at his home in Tehran a few weeks earlier. Within days of the report, Tajbakhsh was amongst the defendants in the first Tehran trial, held up as a prime agent in the "velvet revolution".

Last week Tajbakhsh was sentenced to 15 years in prison. In contrast to the attention given to previous US citizens held by Iran, such as journalist Roxana Saberi, but in parallel to the case of the three American "hikers" detained this summer and still held, Tajbakhsh's fate has received little attention. There was a perfunctory State Department declaration of concern, but the US Government apparently is making its efforts for Tajbakhsh's release behind the scenes and very quietly.

Karim Sadjadpour provides further information and thoughts in this article from Foreign Policy:

My friend, the Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, was recently  sentenced to 15 years in Tehran's Evin prison. For those familiar with the ways of authoritarian regimes, the charges against him will ring familiar: espionage, cooperating with an enemy government, and endangering national security.

Since his arrest last July -- he was accused of helping to plan the post-election uprisings -- Kian's family and friends have made countless appeals for clemency to the Iranian government, written letters to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pleading his innocence, and signed dozens of petitions. All to no avail.

I've come now to realize that the regime probably thinks we're obtuse. Indeed, they know better than anyone that Kian is an innocent man. As the expression goes in Persian, "da'va sar-e een neest," i.e. that's not what this fight is about.

Allow me to explain.

Kian was first arrested in 2007. His crime was having previously worked as a consultant for the Open Society Institute (OSI), a U.S.-based NGO. Though his work was nonpolitical, focused on educational and developmental projects, and had received the explicit consent of the Iranian government, he was accused of trying to foment a "velvet revolution" on behalf of U.S.
intelligence agencies.

While in solitary confinement in Evin, he was subjected to countless hours of interrogation. Had the authorities found any evidence for the above charges during all this, Kian certainly would not have been freed after four months.

He was permitted to leave the country after his release, but chose to remain in Tehran with his wife and newborn daughter. He reassured his worried family and friends that he was now an open book to the Iranian government and there could be no further rationale or pretext to detain him.

Over the last two years, he regularly met with his minder from the Ministry of Intelligence. Aware of the fact that the government was monitoring all of his activities and communications -- including e-mail and telephone conversations -- he kept a very low profile and exhibited
great caution.

During this period, Kian and I regularly exchanged e-mails. He urged me to read his favorite book, Polish writer Czeslaw Milosz's brilliant novel, The Captive Mind, which examines the moral and intellectual conflicts faced by men and women living under totalitarianism of the left or right.

On the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Shah we debated the successes and failures of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and he told me he believed that the former outweigh the latter. Hardly the worldview of a subversive counterrevolutionary.

Even amid the massive popular uprisings following the tainted June 2009 presidential elections, Kian remained cautious and unmoved, steering way clear of any political activity and continuing to meet with his minder.

On June 14, two days after the election, he wrote me an email saying, "I'm keeping my head down ... I have nothing to add to all the reports that are here." In the same e-mail, Kian even expressed skepticism about the opposition's accusations of electoral fraud, saying he had seen "little hard evidence."

A few weeks later he was arrested, bafflingly, on charges of helping to
plan the post-election unrest.

Read rest of article....

UPDATED Iran: Football's Going Green (with the help of Press TV)

Video: Football & “Ya Hossein! Mir Hossein!” (2 October)
The Latest from Iran (24 October): Resurgence

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UPDATE 25 October: Oh, my, folks at Press TV have learned their pro-Government lesson. This morning's story that Iran's football team has set another friendly match, this one with Macedonia, has a more suitable photograph (at left). All left wrists, and thus wristbands, are out of sight.

How appropriate, as I'm following the world's biggest third-division team (Leeds United) this afternoon, that a sharp-eyed reader brings us a football story with an important political twist.

Press TV recently announced, "Iran Sets Soccer Friendly with Iceland", providing a team photograph for illustration. Wonder if the editors noticed that at the right of the picture, the No. 6, No. 8, and No. 13 are all wearing Green wristbands? (Of course, there could be more unseen Green on hidden left wrists.)



The friendly is scheduled for 10 November, six days after the next major post-election demonstrations.

The Latest from Iran (24 October): Resurgence at the Fair?

NEW Iran: Football's Going Green (with the help of Press TV)
NEW Iran: The Karroubi Effect
NEW Iran: Karroubi Statement on Events at Iran Media Fair
NEW Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)
Reading Afghanistan and Iran: Scott Lucas on “The Beautiful Truth” Radio

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1935 GMT: A Note from the Media Fair. As the rumors and discussion continue over the events and protests of the week, another incident, reported by the Iranian Labor News Agency and passed on by an EA correspondent:

A stand for the "Wave of Law" website (a deliberate twist of the term "Green Wave") was dismantled at the press exhibition in Tehran for collecting signatures for a petition seeking a complaint against Mir Hosein Moussavi. The stand faced reluctance from exhibition visitors.

Permission to set up the stand for this new website was given in circumstances in which eligible applicants had been refused. Warnings from the organizers of the Tehran Press Fair were instrumental in the stand's ejection.

1920 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has intervened again with an open letter to the former prosecutor of Tehran, judges, Revolutionary Guard, and the Ministry of Intelligence:

We do not open this letter with “greetings”, as it is a symbol of all that you and your colleagues have denied us and those like us....The mass assault of the agents of the former Tehran prosecutor on the central office of the Participation Front, the election headquarters, and newspapers as well as the mass arrest of the members of the Participation Front, other political, and media activists happened not long ago, and the wave of arrests still continue.

This time you and your colleagues have created a new wonder. Thirty years after the establishment of the “Islamic” system, you silenced the “O God! O God!” prayer in the throats of this nation’s sons and daughters and the innocent families of [political] prisoners by your weapons and handcuffs. We remind you of this because it is the duty of every Muslim to stop their religious brothers and sisters from committing bad deeds that we hope are not being committed deliberately and knowingly but rather unintentionally and under pressure.

Before it is too late come to your senses and don’t be the tools of oppression for the tyrant masters of power. Someday that God willing is coming and is not too far away, they will be too caught up as the results of their words and actions to be able to help you.

1715 GMT: We haven't forgotten you. It is just a relatively quiet period in Iran, and we're heading out to catch up with friends and colleagues. Back later to round up the day's events.

1530 GMT: Saturday Football Story. Looks like the Green wave has made it into a photo of the Iran national team on the Press TV website --- see separate entry.

1455 GMT: The Curious Development with the Nuclear Deal. Something very strange is happening as the Iranian Government deliberates whether to accept the Vienna proposal on uranium enrichment.

Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani has now come out against the agreement, declaring, "Westerners are insisting to go in a direction that speaks of cheating and are imposing some things on us. They are saying we will give you the 20 percent [enriched uranium] fuel for the Tehran reactor only if you give us your enriched uranium. I see no link between these two things."

Larijani's remarks follow those of the Deputy Speaker, Mohammad Reza Bahonar. Neither have had a role in the current negotiations with the "5+1" powers, although Larijani was the former head of Iran's nuclear programme.

So is Larijani, like Bahonar, just staking out some Parliamentary autonomy over whether the deal goes through (and, if so, why)? Or is he reflecting the views of the Supreme Leader, whose endorsement is required for the agreement to proceed?

1430 GMT: For almost two hours, rumours have been racing that Mohammad Khatami and/or Mir Hossein Mousavi have been at the Iran Media Fair this afternoon. The Iranian Labor News Agency was even reporting that Khatami was inside the Mossalla, where the Fair is taking place, before removing the article.

Latest rumours include that Mousavi approached the Fair but did not enter on the advice of security and that one man disguised as Khatami was arrested.

1100 GMT: "Western" Media Foolishness. If Iranian media are highlighting their capacity for distortion and misinformation in their coverage of the Karroubi-Media Fair events, their British counterparts are giving them a run for their money with their representation of Iran's position in the uranium enrichment talks (as we predicted at 0845 GMT). The Times proclaims, "Barack Obama's policy on brink of collapse",while The Daily Telegraph --- citing that most reliable of sources, Mr John Bolton --- yells, "Israeli Military Strike More Likely".

1035 GMT: More Other Side of the Story (see 1015 GMT). The strategy of the Islamic Republic News Agency is to use a member of the Parliament's Cultural Commission to argue that Mehdi Karroubi and his supporters planned yesterday's events at the Media Fair as part of their strategy for "overthrow" of the Iranian system.

Fars News, meanwhile, continues to push the story as one of pro-Government crowds confronting Karroubi with the "Death to the hypocrite" chant, to which Karroubi's bodyguards responded by brandishing guns.

1030 GMT: Deaths in Tehran. Iranian state media is reporting six people, including a judge, have been killed in the Iranian capital. The incident, however, appears to be unrelated to post-election conflict and instead stems from a "family dispute".

1015 GMT: The Other Side of the Story. It is illuminating to compare Mehdi Karroubi's account of the Media Fair experience with that from state media. Press TV portrays a balanced reception --- "Former Iranian presidential candidate Karroubi has been met with slogans both in favor of and against himself....The opponents shouted 'Liar, get lost' and 'Death to Monafeq [hypocrite]' while the proponents chanted, 'Long live Karroubi'." There's also a balance in blame for the violence, "The fair turned into a scene of clashes and some booths were damaged after the politician was attacked by a shoe."

No balance or indeed context in the headline, however: "Karroubi's bodyguard fires into air at Tehran fair".

0920 GMT: We've posted the English translation of Mehdi Karroubi's statement on yesterday's events at the Iran Media Fair in a separate entry.

0855 GMT: Responding to Karroubi. In a signal of the interaction of yesterday's events with the growing clerical movement against the regime, Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani talked with Mehdi Karroubi by phone after the incidents at the Media Fair. Bayat-Zanjani expressed his admiration for Karroubi’s resistance in front of obscene and hideous acts, calling him a fighter and a true believer: “The more influential you are, the more they [Ahmadinejad supporters] resist you and these insulting attempts [just] reveal how successful you are.”

0845 GMT: The Enrichment Deal is On. Just to be clear, while there will be much huffing and puffing about devious/manipulative/dangerous Iran today, Tehran's delay in signing the Vienna deal on third-party enrichment is --- for now --- only another step on the path to agreement.

The US signalled that it would allow more time for Iran's decision, while making the necessary tough noises, in a statement by State Department spokesman Ian Kelly:

Obviously we would have preferred to have a response today. We approach this with a sense of urgency. We can stretch things for a few days, and that's really what we're talking about. But we're not going to wait forever.

An EA reader adds that there is also an easing of hostility in the French media on the Iran nuclear issue, with newspapers like Le Monde accepting that Tehran's response will come next week.

0745 GMT: Pedestrian has posted an English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's remarks on Wednesday to the staff of his Kalemeh Sabz newspaper, which was raided and closed by Government forces on 22 June: "We must not allow the events of the past few months to create pessimism about the revolution."

0725 GMT: Inevitably we are picking up on two major stories this morning.

On the international front, the signs continue that the Iranian regime --- albeit several days after a deadline because of its gamesmanship and the rumblings of its bureaucracy --- will accept the uranium enrichment deal. While it deliberates, the Government has offered another significant concession to the "West"; officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency will arrive in Iran on Saturday to inspect the second uranium enrichment plant at Fordoo near Qom. The visit will last 2-3 days.

However, it is the Mehdi Karroubi story that dominates our initial thoughts this morning. As conversation continues to buzz about his appearance at the Iran Media Fair, the crowd enthusiasm, and the subsequent scuffles, we've posted an analysis of the significance.