Sunday
Oct252009
The Latest on Iran (25 October): Expectation Rises
Sunday, October 25, 2009 at 10:44
NEW Iran's American Prisoner: The Case of Kian Tajbakhsh (Continued with 15 Years in Jail)
Iran: Football’s Going Green (with the help of Press TV)
Iran: The Karroubi Effect
Iran: Karroubi Statement on Events at Iran Media Fair
Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)
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0825 GMT: Norooz has published the names of 19 reformist activists and family members, out of 71 arrested on Thursday night at the home of detainee Shahabeddin Tabatabei, transferred to Evin Prison.
0753 GMT: Nuclear Deal Still On? Your latest clue, courtesy of Press TV, that the Iranians want an agreement on enrichment: a high-profile splash on the US and Russian positions, "Medvedev, Obama find talks with Iran 'positive'".
Your latest clue, courtesy of Press TV and Iran's Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, that Tehran will spin out the process a bit longer, manoeuvring for best possible terms on "third-party enrichment" and assuring the Iranian people that it is negotiating from strength: "Iran asserts that its offer to buy nuclear fuel from the West is purely a confidence-building measure, as it has the technology to enrich uranium up to 20 percent."
0750 GMT: We've updated the story of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, now sentenced to 15 years in prison, with an article by Karim Sadjadpour.
0615 GMT: A morning where the significant movement is on the Iranian nuclear question. The inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency should begin their work at Iran's second uranium enrichment facility, at Fardoo near Qom, today --- Al Jazeera has video. That story will dominate "Western" coverage of Iran, possibly matched by speculation and worry over Tehran's deliberations on the Vienna agreement on enrichment. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani stirred up confusion yesterday, as we noted, with his criticism of the proposal --- still no clue, in the dramatic US-UK coverage, whether Larijani speaks for anyone (say the Supreme Leader) other than himself.
Inside Iran, however, the hot-button question yesterday was whether Mir Hossein Mousavi and/or Mohammad Khatami had showed up at the Tehran Media Fair, a day after Mehdi Karroubi appeared.
Hours later, there was no confirmation, only the continuing rumours that Khatami had been inside the Fair and Mousavi had tried to enter but turned away on the advice of security forces. Personally, I do not think either happened --- the story about Mousavi, in particular, was being pushed by pro-Government media to show the opposition leader's weakness when challenged.
Yet a non-story is still a signal. The buzz over Mousavi and Khatami amplifies the message, which we noted and evaluated yesterday, that the opposition movement is ready for another go at the regime. Fatigue and resignation give way to excitement. How much that translates into hope, rather than the energy for another show of frustration and anger, is an important but as of now unanswerable question.
Still, I think it's notable that yet another high-profile if confused Government attempt to break resistance --- the arrest of the 60 reformists and their relatives this week --- has lost its force. Indeed, the continued detention of some of the 60 contributes to the anger/frustration seen at the Media Fair and beyond. That, I suspect, will be doubly true because of the taking of women who have no "political" position in this conflict apart from the relationship to their husbands.
Caveats have to be played on the above reading. Once again, we are seeing events which are almost exclusively in Tehran. While there are significant reports of demonstrations outside the capital, especially at universities and in factories (EA sources in particular are watching Shiraz), it is impossible to assess how far the challenge to the regime extends. At the same time, what happens in Tehran --- even if it is propelled by a "minority", as pro-Government interpretation will claim --- will have a ripple effect, 4 1/2 months after the Presidential election.
It is 10 days to 13 Aban (4 November).
Iran: Football’s Going Green (with the help of Press TV)
Iran: The Karroubi Effect
Iran: Karroubi Statement on Events at Iran Media Fair
Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
0825 GMT: Norooz has published the names of 19 reformist activists and family members, out of 71 arrested on Thursday night at the home of detainee Shahabeddin Tabatabei, transferred to Evin Prison.0753 GMT: Nuclear Deal Still On? Your latest clue, courtesy of Press TV, that the Iranians want an agreement on enrichment: a high-profile splash on the US and Russian positions, "Medvedev, Obama find talks with Iran 'positive'".
Your latest clue, courtesy of Press TV and Iran's Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, that Tehran will spin out the process a bit longer, manoeuvring for best possible terms on "third-party enrichment" and assuring the Iranian people that it is negotiating from strength: "Iran asserts that its offer to buy nuclear fuel from the West is purely a confidence-building measure, as it has the technology to enrich uranium up to 20 percent."
0750 GMT: We've updated the story of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, now sentenced to 15 years in prison, with an article by Karim Sadjadpour.
0615 GMT: A morning where the significant movement is on the Iranian nuclear question. The inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency should begin their work at Iran's second uranium enrichment facility, at Fardoo near Qom, today --- Al Jazeera has video. That story will dominate "Western" coverage of Iran, possibly matched by speculation and worry over Tehran's deliberations on the Vienna agreement on enrichment. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani stirred up confusion yesterday, as we noted, with his criticism of the proposal --- still no clue, in the dramatic US-UK coverage, whether Larijani speaks for anyone (say the Supreme Leader) other than himself.
Inside Iran, however, the hot-button question yesterday was whether Mir Hossein Mousavi and/or Mohammad Khatami had showed up at the Tehran Media Fair, a day after Mehdi Karroubi appeared.
Hours later, there was no confirmation, only the continuing rumours that Khatami had been inside the Fair and Mousavi had tried to enter but turned away on the advice of security forces. Personally, I do not think either happened --- the story about Mousavi, in particular, was being pushed by pro-Government media to show the opposition leader's weakness when challenged.
Yet a non-story is still a signal. The buzz over Mousavi and Khatami amplifies the message, which we noted and evaluated yesterday, that the opposition movement is ready for another go at the regime. Fatigue and resignation give way to excitement. How much that translates into hope, rather than the energy for another show of frustration and anger, is an important but as of now unanswerable question.
Still, I think it's notable that yet another high-profile if confused Government attempt to break resistance --- the arrest of the 60 reformists and their relatives this week --- has lost its force. Indeed, the continued detention of some of the 60 contributes to the anger/frustration seen at the Media Fair and beyond. That, I suspect, will be doubly true because of the taking of women who have no "political" position in this conflict apart from the relationship to their husbands.
Caveats have to be played on the above reading. Once again, we are seeing events which are almost exclusively in Tehran. While there are significant reports of demonstrations outside the capital, especially at universities and in factories (EA sources in particular are watching Shiraz), it is impossible to assess how far the challenge to the regime extends. At the same time, what happens in Tehran --- even if it is propelled by a "minority", as pro-Government interpretation will claim --- will have a ripple effect, 4 1/2 months after the Presidential election.
It is 10 days to 13 Aban (4 November).
Reader Comments (8)
Weekly protest by a group of about 200 mothers and family members of the martyrs and political prisoners in Laleh Park in Tehran in protest (Oct 24, 2009):
singing "ey iran ey "
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=103297203020400&ref=mf
here you are a link about the iranian leaders who have to live like "Gandi" because they are religious and have a vocation; unfortunately it's not the case; God , in all over the world, is "$"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKOYflgM1zc
allo ? where are you ? je m'ennuie et il n'y a personne !! pas gentil !!!
Et alors ange, c'est dimanche ! (et les journalistes aussi ont besoin de
lâcher leur clavier ) Rendez- vous tomorrow!
Where the hell is Rafs? Is he waving the white flag? `does anyone have any news from his office? he`s been silent these last weeks, all while the Guards are steamrolling over his allies, about time he throws some punches.
maybe it is like one reader mentioned here. Rafsanjani is Raft (sanjani)
@xerxes
That is what I have been asking!! Where is Rafs?! Also the SL has been very quite, I thought he would have been warning about 13 Aban about now or commenting on the National Unity Plan (we haven't heard anything about that since it was sent to the SL). Apart from Nuclear issue and more propaganda attacks on reformists there has not been much news coming out of the government.
@Anna,
The silence from Rafs is surprising, he's been under attack, I was expecting him to make a few moves, but he has kept his mouth shut. As for the warnings, the guards have issued strong non-verbal warnings, the arrests from last week is a strong warning, but I suspect it to be counterproductiv as people are getting more upset. Seems to me that SL and Guards are running out of options, everyting they've tried so far has failed. Trials, toruture, murder. Sooner or later they will attach each other in an attempt to survive.
Labor unrest in Ahvaz continues. Peyke Iran reports that people joined workers of pipe manufacturing plant who were protesting having not paid wages for 10 months. They chanted “death or justice”, something I had not heard before. Other chants were variations of those we had heard before. I also saw a sign for 13th of Abaan (Novemeber 4). Here is the link: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=8373