Wednesday
Oct212009
UPDATED Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery
Wednesday, October 21, 2009 at 11:33
The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today's Two Bombings
Iran: Khamenei, Bahari, Hajjarian, and the “Semi-Normal”
Iran: The Supreme Leader Lives — The Picture (17 October)
The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal
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UPDATE 21 October: And just in case you're still doubting, the Supreme Leader's website has posted an audio and photo album from yesterday's meeting with female scholars.
UPDATE 1645 GMT: Ayatollah Khamenei’s official website has posted a photograph and full report of the Supreme Leader’s meeting with thousands of female scholars and teachers. Khamenei declared that Islam show its “respect and dignity for women and women’s talents” in the family, society, and national and international activities. He repeated his criticism of Western academia, specifically the humanities, for its teaching and worldview in contrast to an Iranian approach based on Qu’ranic principles. (Cross-posted from Latest Iran Updates, 20 October)
UPDATE 20 October 1615 GMT: The Supreme Leader did meet the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezatullah Zarghami, at the end of last week. Previously we had reported that the meeting was scheduled but, amidst the rumours about Ayatollah Khamenei's health, had no confirmation that it took place. (Cross-posted from Latest Iran Updates, 20 October)
Well, it's the morning after the pictures that were supposed to end all speculation about the fitness and health of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The images of the Supreme Leader with President Ahmadinejad and the visiting President of Senegal, Abdoulaye Wade, are most ordinary for a ceremonial photographs, and their message is that, after an extraordinary five days of rumour, possibility, and anxiety, all is ordinary with Iran's leadership.
Inevitably, Internet users (including Enduring America's staff) pored over the pictures to find inconsistencies and flaws that might point to a regime cover-up. Did the event even occur?
Fars News offered a curiosity when it ran a photograph different from that released by the Supreme Leader's office, with Wade in a suit rather than traditional African dress. And, indeed, the picture was of a June 2006 meeting. Yet the explanation turns out to be very mundane: all photographs are taken by Khamenei's private photographer, who then edits them and places them on the official website subject to the approval of the Supreme Leader's office. It may be hours between the news of a meeting and the emergence of any pictures, so an editor at Fars pushed out an old photo while waiting for the newer one. Wade was indeed wearing traditional dress on his visit to Tehran, a fact confirmed by his pictures at the reception at Ahmadinejad's compound.
Then there was the Photoshop speculation. Enduring America readers noticed an object which appeared to be in the same place on the same table in front of Khamenei in the 2006 and 2009 meetings. The possible, again mundane explanation, is one of habit or bureaucratic routine. The object appears to be a case or recording device used regularly on such occasions.
Some Iran-watchers are persisting with the Photoshop theory, and other rumours persist. The claim that Wade was only in Tehran for a few hours (which does not rule out a visit to Khamenei, since the Supreme Leader's office is only two blocks from the Presidential compound). The photographs are from Wade's February 2008 meeting with the Supreme Leader (we haven't yet found any pictures of that encounter). Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani tried to see Khamenei but was turned away.
My aversion to these hypotheses is because they over-complicate and thus distract from a far more important situation. In the middle of the speculation yesterday, an EA correspondent commented concisely, "He's alive, whether he's well, that's another story for another day!"
With respect, it's a matter for this day. The Supreme Leader's appearance, for at least the time it took to take the photographs, does not rule out the original story, which was that he had been taken ill earlier this week, and three doctors had been summoned to his home. (It does knock out, I think, the expansion of this into Khamenei being in hospital in a coma.) If that story is true, with the addition that the Supreme Leader was told no public appearances and only visits with family and friends, then it is a significant twist in the post-election tale. Khamenei was being firmly instructed to remove himself from the public arena but his office found, given the flurry of speculation, that removal is not possible --- sooner rather than later, he had to resurface.
That's still a big if. The origins of this rumour still lie with a single website, run by the "left" Iranian diaspora, relying on a single unnamed source. What gave the story legs were other curious developments such as the suspension of publication of several pro-Government newspapers.
So the issue is not whether "the Supreme Leader is still not dead", but how "still not dead" he is. This remains a most demanding political situation, to say the least, and a Khamenei who is less than 100%, let alone one who is significantly restricted by a prolonged illness, means new calculations by others in the manoeuvres for power.
Iran: Khamenei, Bahari, Hajjarian, and the “Semi-Normal”
Iran: The Supreme Leader Lives — The Picture (17 October)
The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
UPDATE 21 October: And just in case you're still doubting, the Supreme Leader's website has posted an audio and photo album from yesterday's meeting with female scholars.UPDATE 1645 GMT: Ayatollah Khamenei’s official website has posted a photograph and full report of the Supreme Leader’s meeting with thousands of female scholars and teachers. Khamenei declared that Islam show its “respect and dignity for women and women’s talents” in the family, society, and national and international activities. He repeated his criticism of Western academia, specifically the humanities, for its teaching and worldview in contrast to an Iranian approach based on Qu’ranic principles. (Cross-posted from Latest Iran Updates, 20 October)
UPDATE 20 October 1615 GMT: The Supreme Leader did meet the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezatullah Zarghami, at the end of last week. Previously we had reported that the meeting was scheduled but, amidst the rumours about Ayatollah Khamenei's health, had no confirmation that it took place. (Cross-posted from Latest Iran Updates, 20 October)
Well, it's the morning after the pictures that were supposed to end all speculation about the fitness and health of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The images of the Supreme Leader with President Ahmadinejad and the visiting President of Senegal, Abdoulaye Wade, are most ordinary for a ceremonial photographs, and their message is that, after an extraordinary five days of rumour, possibility, and anxiety, all is ordinary with Iran's leadership.
Inevitably, Internet users (including Enduring America's staff) pored over the pictures to find inconsistencies and flaws that might point to a regime cover-up. Did the event even occur?
Fars News offered a curiosity when it ran a photograph different from that released by the Supreme Leader's office, with Wade in a suit rather than traditional African dress. And, indeed, the picture was of a June 2006 meeting. Yet the explanation turns out to be very mundane: all photographs are taken by Khamenei's private photographer, who then edits them and places them on the official website subject to the approval of the Supreme Leader's office. It may be hours between the news of a meeting and the emergence of any pictures, so an editor at Fars pushed out an old photo while waiting for the newer one. Wade was indeed wearing traditional dress on his visit to Tehran, a fact confirmed by his pictures at the reception at Ahmadinejad's compound.
Then there was the Photoshop speculation. Enduring America readers noticed an object which appeared to be in the same place on the same table in front of Khamenei in the 2006 and 2009 meetings. The possible, again mundane explanation, is one of habit or bureaucratic routine. The object appears to be a case or recording device used regularly on such occasions.
Some Iran-watchers are persisting with the Photoshop theory, and other rumours persist. The claim that Wade was only in Tehran for a few hours (which does not rule out a visit to Khamenei, since the Supreme Leader's office is only two blocks from the Presidential compound). The photographs are from Wade's February 2008 meeting with the Supreme Leader (we haven't yet found any pictures of that encounter). Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani tried to see Khamenei but was turned away.
My aversion to these hypotheses is because they over-complicate and thus distract from a far more important situation. In the middle of the speculation yesterday, an EA correspondent commented concisely, "He's alive, whether he's well, that's another story for another day!"
With respect, it's a matter for this day. The Supreme Leader's appearance, for at least the time it took to take the photographs, does not rule out the original story, which was that he had been taken ill earlier this week, and three doctors had been summoned to his home. (It does knock out, I think, the expansion of this into Khamenei being in hospital in a coma.) If that story is true, with the addition that the Supreme Leader was told no public appearances and only visits with family and friends, then it is a significant twist in the post-election tale. Khamenei was being firmly instructed to remove himself from the public arena but his office found, given the flurry of speculation, that removal is not possible --- sooner rather than later, he had to resurface.
That's still a big if. The origins of this rumour still lie with a single website, run by the "left" Iranian diaspora, relying on a single unnamed source. What gave the story legs were other curious developments such as the suspension of publication of several pro-Government newspapers.
So the issue is not whether "the Supreme Leader is still not dead", but how "still not dead" he is. This remains a most demanding political situation, to say the least, and a Khamenei who is less than 100%, let alone one who is significantly restricted by a prolonged illness, means new calculations by others in the manoeuvres for power.
Reader Comments (22)
This is laughable your link to "Some Iran-watchers" is Ledeen??? The guy does not even realize that the picture of the president in the suit is from a prior trip to Iran. No one is claiming that the suit picture is from yesterday.
Ledeen seems to be fond of EA. With admirers like these...
Ahh good old samuel is back, after Qods day u were quit for a while. Welcom back. We have another great day for you on Nov 4. I'm sure you'll like...
The black object on the table is some kind of communication/recording device. Wires can be plainly seen running to it over the carpet. It is not an eyeglasses case.
has anyone seen any news reports in Senegalies news sites about their president's visit to Iran ?
the news about Abdoulaye Wade's visit is genuin, he arrived in tehran on saturday, however the question is, whether or not he visited with SL.
http://www.africanews.com/site/Senegalese_presidents_visits_Iran/list_messages/27483
Here is the website of the Senegalese president http://www.presidence.sn/spip.php?rubrique50 The site doesn't mention a visit to Iran, but the most actual news on this site is of 14th October, so maybe there will be pictures of the visit to Iran about a few days?
taxidermy
;)
Nomoredespots:
The black object on the table is some kind of communication/recording device. Wires can be plainly seen running to it over the carpet. It is not an eyeglasses case.
I would love to hear the recordings that were made on that over the years!!
Today (Monday 19th of October)the website http://www.africanews.com/site/Senegal_urged_to_help_Palestinians/list_messages/27500
finally posted a picture of the meeting of Khamenei and the Senegalese president Wade.
When Khomeini died, his death was announced 7 or 8 days after the actual death.
It is suffice to say that Khamanei has one foot in the grave and we will soon see where the other foot is.
I suspect power struggle is already heating up behind the scenes. Going by the past record, Rafi will be needed for any SL changes but then again he is being sidelined by the Gov so some interesting times ahead.
Another picture emerges:
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2009/10/19/Khamenei-talks-unity-after-health-rumors/UPI-16101255976815/
Nancy,
Thank you. Can anyone ID the other people in the photograph?
S.
Next to the Senegalese president Wade is Ahmadinejad. The only other one I make out is Mottaki in the Grey.
Picture is from the 17th.
Possibly Mehdi Mostafavi next to Mottaki- that would make sense as it was Mostafavi, Head of Iran's Islamic Culture and Relations Organization, who invited Wade to Iran back in September.
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8807011539
I assume this is part of Iran's effort to increase political and economic links in Africa.
Aother possible is Agriculture minister, Sadeq Khalilian- who met Wade at the airport.
Did they really meet?
This guy has done some interesting research:
http://www.iransocialmedia.com/2009/10/khamenei-senegal/
I can not tell if I am alive even among thousands of female scholars, because some of them are undercover men and some of the men in the intelligence service can be quite ugly. Our women have the talent to bare the children who are the fodder of our fanaticism, and many of the scholars and playwrights among them are fertile with farce like a pomegranate.
Am I alive? Dissolved in intense prayer and meditation, I cannot feel the body of my deeds that require me to dissociate from my soul. Would you ask me about evil deeds, decadent Western academia?
Because I am holy, I have plausible deniability. With my divine powers I have erased the sunspots from the sun, erased my guilt, and begun an age of chill and silence. Ghost or not, fever does not delude me, I am the Devil in the details, the shadow in the photo.
My opponents are mere English dogs: Lassie has fallen into the 12th well and Timmy cannot help her.
I am more powerful than the pagans and my sword of justice shall slay beyond the October of the Americans.
Beware the Guards and my son. Let not the MI5 stir the pot. "Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble." Let you and us pray, "Death to America, apple pie and Lassie," and have a nice day. Peace.
IRIB has video of the meeting with the female scholars. Of course this will be dismissed as fake, old tape etc.
http://english.iribnews.ir/videoplayer_interview.aspx?videoID=710
Ali Khamenei,
Thanks for the laugh.
Ali Khamenei,
Ali Khamenei ? What a is a misnomer for a well read person like you.
Tthe real Khamenei is Nothing, a big hollow ZERO. When he flat-lines, his body will be covered with maggots just like a dead dog or dead rat. Once he is put in a deep hole in the ground where he should have been a long time ago, the world will be cleansed from his stench, birds will sing again, sun will shine and children play and laugh again and Iranians can enjoy the fresh scent of spring flowers again.
Megan,
Thank you for sharing your fantasies but keep in mind that the Revolution survived the lost of its founder which is always the toughest test for a regime (see e.g., Lenin/Soviet U, Mao/China)
Keep wishing those very nice, lovely thoughts but be careful what you wish for because one day you may wake up to a Mesbah Yazdi Supreme Leader and a Jafari presidency.
Samuel
Are you now posting comments as Ali Khamenei? If so, the correct spelling should be KHAANNEI.
You are the one with Fantasies calling a slow prolonged death of your revolution a survival. The Nightmare of 1979, your revolution, is a sand castle on sandy shores. A strong wave will wash it off to the sea. We are witnessing its demise. Those waves of attractive, youthful, smart , and brave men and women pounding it every day chipping it away piece by piece until there is NO MORE.
Your Revolution was a house built on termite infested foundations. Termites, the mullahs, have been gorging on it for thirty years totally unaware they were digging their own graves. There will be NO ISLAMIC REPUBLIC. Khomeini has called them all to a meeting in hell. Did you not get the memo?
Megan,
Your responses never disappoint. I'll place my confidence on "Those waves of attractive, youthful, smart, and brave men and women" in the IRGC and the Basij.
In fact here are over 50 photos of "Those waves of attractive, youthful, smart, and brave men and women".
http://english.khamenei.ir//index.php?option=com_mhasgallery&Itemid=33&func=viewcategory&catid=92