UPDATED Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery

The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today's Two Bombings
Iran: Khamenei, Bahari, Hajjarian, and the “Semi-Normal”
Iran: The Supreme Leader Lives — The Picture (17 October)
The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

UPDATE 21 October: And just in case you're still doubting, the Supreme Leader's website has posted an audio and photo album from yesterday's meeting with female scholars.


UPDATE 1645 GMT: Ayatollah Khamenei’s official website has posted a photograph and full report of the Supreme Leader’s meeting with thousands of female scholars and teachers. Khamenei declared that Islam show its “respect and dignity for women and women’s talents” in the family, society, and national and international activities. He repeated his criticism of Western academia, specifically the humanities, for its teaching and worldview in contrast to an Iranian approach based on Qu’ranic principles. (Cross-posted from Latest Iran Updates, 20 October)

UPDATE 20 October 1615 GMT: The Supreme Leader did meet the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezatullah Zarghami, at the end of last week. Previously we had reported that the meeting was scheduled but, amidst the rumours about Ayatollah Khamenei's health, had no confirmation that it took place. (Cross-posted from Latest Iran Updates, 20 October)

Well, it's the morning after the pictures that were supposed to end all speculation about the fitness and health of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The images of the Supreme Leader with President Ahmadinejad and the visiting President of Senegal, Abdoulaye Wade, are most ordinary for a ceremonial photographs, and their message is that, after an extraordinary five days of rumour, possibility, and anxiety, all is ordinary with Iran's leadership.

Inevitably, Internet users (including Enduring America's staff) pored over the pictures to find inconsistencies and flaws that might point to a regime cover-up. Did the event even occur?

Fars News offered a curiosity when it ran a photograph different from that released by the Supreme Leader's office, with Wade in a suit rather than traditional African dress. And, indeed, the picture was of a June 2006 meeting. Yet the explanation turns out to be very mundane: all photographs are taken by Khamenei's private photographer, who then edits them and places them on the official website subject to the approval of the Supreme Leader's office. It may be hours between the news of a meeting and the emergence of any pictures, so an editor at Fars pushed out an old photo while waiting for the newer one. Wade was indeed wearing traditional dress on his visit to Tehran, a fact confirmed by his pictures at the reception at Ahmadinejad's compound.

Then there was the Photoshop speculation. Enduring America readers noticed an object which appeared to be in the same place on the same table in front of Khamenei in the 2006 and 2009 meetings. The possible, again mundane explanation, is one of habit or bureaucratic routine. The object appears to be a case or recording device used regularly on such occasions.

Some Iran-watchers are persisting with the Photoshop theory, and other rumours persist. The claim that Wade was only in Tehran for a few hours (which does not rule out a visit to Khamenei, since the Supreme Leader's office is only two blocks from the Presidential compound). The photographs are from Wade's February 2008 meeting with the Supreme Leader (we haven't yet found any pictures of that encounter). Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani tried to see Khamenei but was turned away.

My aversion to these hypotheses is because they over-complicate and thus distract from a far more important situation. In the middle of the speculation yesterday, an EA correspondent commented concisely, "He's alive, whether he's well, that's another story for another day!"

With respect, it's a matter for this day. The Supreme Leader's appearance, for at least the time it took to take the photographs, does not rule out the original story, which was that he had been taken ill earlier this week, and three doctors had been summoned to his home. (It does knock out, I think, the expansion of this into Khamenei being in hospital in a coma.) If that story is true, with the addition that the Supreme Leader was told no public appearances and only visits with family and friends, then it is a significant twist in the post-election tale. Khamenei was being firmly instructed to remove himself from the public arena but his office found, given the flurry of speculation, that removal is not possible --- sooner rather than later, he had to resurface.

That's still a big if. The origins of this rumour still lie with a single website, run by the "left" Iranian diaspora, relying on a single unnamed source. What gave the story legs were other curious developments such as the suspension of publication of several pro-Government newspapers.

So the issue is not whether "the Supreme Leader is still not dead", but how "still not dead" he is. This remains a most demanding political situation, to say the least, and a Khamenei who is less than 100%, let alone one who is significantly restricted by a prolonged illness, means new calculations by others in the manoeuvres for power.

Iran: Karroubi Reply to Ahmadinejad's Appearance on US TV (9 October)

Now, for the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize: Mehdi Karroubi
The Latest from Iran (9 October): Almost Four Months

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED

Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Thanks to Pedestrian for translation from original article in Mashrote News. The letter is written on behalf of Karroubi by his son, Mohammad Taqi:

In the Name of God,

[a poem: if the first bricks of a wall are placed askew, the entire wall will go up askew]

Dear Brother, Mr. [Ezatullah] Zarghami,

The Honorable head of IRIB [Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting],

Greetings,

As you are well aware, on Tuesday Mr. Ahmadinejad’s interview with Charlie Rose [of US Public Broadcasting Service] was broadcast on Channel1 [IRIB1]. When speaking of post-election events, the host of this American TV network pointed to the subject of rape in prisons. In response, Mr. Ahmadinejad said: "It is Mr. Karroubi who has made these allegations and when the three-member team from the judiciary refuted his comments, he grew very angry and had nothing to show for it."

It is quite unfortunate that the culture of lying has become an inseparable part of the executive branch [of government]. I don’t know what it is about New York that brings out this personal attribute [lying] of the president’s two-fold. It is also unfortunate that the Islamic Republic’s broadcasting service has also been transformed to a medium that spreads this vile culture and the result is the lack of trust people feel towards this public medium....



I want the dear people to know that some very shocking news was reported to me about the state of the children of this nation who were in legal and illegal detention centers for simply demanding their legal rights. It was my religious, legal, national, and human obligation to say something and not to allow the violation of people’s rights and the trampling of their honor to become a norm in the Islamic Republic. After the members of the judiciary team were announced, we had some productive meetings, and I gave them my documentation while trusting that these individuals were intent on following the cases and punishing those who were responsible. But suddenly, instead of pursuing the cases, traitors viciously attacked me and they shut down my personal office and the office of my Etemade Melli party and another copy of the documents was in the hands of the officials.

The accusations made in [Ahmadinejad’s] interview are pure lies, and I am still actively pursuing those cases --- stories which hurt the conscience of any free human being. I ask the so-called national media to give me or one of my representatives a third of the time they gave to those judiciary members so I can convey the extent of these atrocities to the people, so that the nation, the real owners of this land, can place themselves in the place of a jury and judge my words and yours. The late Imam [Khomeini] said that he would sacrifice his life for the people of this nation, so why are these same people now considered become outsiders and why do they not have the right to hear of what is happening to their own children via their own medium?

Mr. Zarghami,

I know you to be an honest, intelligent individual. That is why I recommend that you bring down this great wall of mistrust that has been created between the people and their national media, which, today, more resembles the officials’ personal media. The interests of the people and the nation lie in their being informed of events. And there’s no one around these days who doesn’t know that because of the existent technologies, despite all the efforts, borders have been broken and people have access to information.

I ask the lord for your health and well-being,

With Thanks,

Mohammad Taqi Karoubi