Wednesday
Oct282009
The Latest from Iran (28 October): The Supreme Leader Jumps In
Wednesday, October 28, 2009 at 19:32
NEW Latest Iran Video: Families of Detainees Protest (28 October)
NEW Iran: Towards 13 Aban --- The University Protests
NEW Iran: Are There Billions of Dollars Missing?
NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi Speaks with Journalists (27 October)
Latest Iran Video: University Protests (27 October)
The Latest from Iran (27 October): Domestic and Foreign Collide
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Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2100 GMT: And for those looking for yet another account of the Karroubi-Mousavi meeting (see 1220 and 1350 GMT), here is the version from Mousavi's website Kalemeh.
1930 GMT: We've posted video of today's demonstration by families of detainees in front of the Tehran Prosecutor General's offices (see 1150 GMT).
1835 GMT: And Then There's the Nice Supreme Leader. Mehr News ignores the Khamenei challenge to the opposition, preferring the Supreme Leader's exhortation to students, “The political insight and religious principles and concepts in the depth of the thoughts of the youth show that today’s younger generation cannot be stopped, and this pure reality is the guarantor of the continuation of the country’s progress.”
Only later in the article does Mehr sneak in the criticism of the Green movement, “The day after the election, some called that great election a lie without any reason or justification. Is it a minor offence?”
Press TV finally gets around to the harsh Khamenei attack on "certain people", but they prefer to avoid the issue for several paragraphs, focusing instead on "foreign attacks".
1810 GMT: Khamenei Intervenes. And the Supreme Leader's message, after the Media Fair episodes, the Mousavi-Karroubi meeting, and the University demonstrations is: Enough is Enough.
Speaking to university staff and students today, according to state television, Khamenei made his sharpest direct attack on opposition leaders since early in the post-election crisis, saying "questioning [of] the basis of the election [was] the biggest crime". He added, "Of course some people inside (Iran) may not be aware that they are moving in line with the enemies' threats, but this issue will not change the truth."
Khamenei claimed that he had sent a private message to opposition leaders, saying that they were starting would be used by enemy". He then issued a not-so-veiled challenge over further moves, claiming, "A politician has to be like a chess player & predict their moves & their results in advance."
1350 GMT: Emrooz has also posted a brief report of the Mousavi-Karroubi meeting. Rooz Online has a longer piece, focusing on the Mousavi-Karroubi discussion of Iran's relations with the "West".
1220 GMT: Did Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi meet? Mizan News says so: the four-hour discussion included consideration of the enrichment agreement with the "5+1" powers, the continuity of the Green movement, and issues related to political reform. They stated the intention to form a joint committee for these concerns, emphasising the need of further regular meetings.
1210 GMT: Thanks to new information from an EA correspondent, we've moved our initial item this morning, on the significance of university protests, to a separate entry.
1154 GMT: Amnesty International has issued a call for the release of 76-year-old Mohammad Maleki on health grounds. Maleki, former Chancellor of Tehran University, has not been seen by friends or family since 14 September. He has been suffering from prostate cancer.
1150 GMT: Families of detainees protested today in front of the office of the Tehran Prosecutor General. They were surrounded by security forces, who prevented others from joining them. (English summary from Reuters, who do not the presence of security forces)
1145 GMT:The reformist Association of Combatant Clerics have held a meeting, chaired by former President Mohammad Khatami. They called on people to demonstrate on 13 Aban (4 November) but to show restraint in the face of the regime's violent provocations.
1135 GMT: Reuters is reporting from Mehr News that Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, will present Tehran's response on Thursday to the proposal for third-party enrichment.
0945 GMT: We've posted an entry posing the question, "Why is $66 Billion Missing from Iran Government Accounts?"
0725 GMT: Karroubi Speaks Again. We've posted an English translation of his latest comments, made to journalists who visited him in his house.
0643 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran have a summary of the latest developments in the cases of post-election detainees.
0630 GMT: Pedestrian offers a fascinating account of the protest at Chamran University in Ahwaz (see video page).
The catalyst was the appearance of member of Parliament Hamid Rasaee, who has signed a letter asking the judiciary to prosecute Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. In his speech, Rasaee compared former President Mohammad Khatami to former US President George W. Bush, claiming, "The followers of Bush in Iran hide behind Khatami’s aba [clerical robe].”
The speech, which was supposed to open a conference on “soft warfare”, was greeted by screaming students wearing green and throwing empty water bottles and --- apparently --- green peppers at him. Unable to continue the speech, he responded, "We believe in the exchange of ideas and respect other people’s viewpoints but here, I am greeted with shouts of liar. We are allowing you to express your view and thus we are not dictators.”
To students' shouts of “Clumsy fool, go back to Tehran!”, he answered, “If Rasaee was a clumsy fool, 40 million people [who voted for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] would not have have given you a slap in the face”. This only brought the chant, "Liar, where is your 63% [the claimed share of the vote for Ahmadinejad on 12 June]?"
The exchange continued for some time, with students finally shouting, "Torture and confessions will no longer silence us.” The conference on soft warfare was reportedly canceled.
0600 GMT: The Government still seems to be occupied --- I would argue distracted --- with the haggling over the uranium enrichment deal. An EA reader offered the essential comment last night that Iran's call for re-negotiation of terms appears to be over a vast over-supply of its holdings for enrichment in Russia: the life of the medical research reactor is only 15 years, but the processing of 80% of Iran's stock provides 110 years of uranium.
That still leaves a curiosity: why did this apparently obvious objection not arise before the Vienna technical talks and indeed during them? Beyond that, however, there is the political impact at home. The regime seems to be scrambling and sometimes arguing amongst itself.
It is exactly one week to 13 Aban (4 November).
NEW Iran: Towards 13 Aban --- The University Protests
NEW Iran: Are There Billions of Dollars Missing?
NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi Speaks with Journalists (27 October)
Latest Iran Video: University Protests (27 October)
The Latest from Iran (27 October): Domestic and Foreign Collide
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2100 GMT: And for those looking for yet another account of the Karroubi-Mousavi meeting (see 1220 and 1350 GMT), here is the version from Mousavi's website Kalemeh.
1930 GMT: We've posted video of today's demonstration by families of detainees in front of the Tehran Prosecutor General's offices (see 1150 GMT).
1835 GMT: And Then There's the Nice Supreme Leader. Mehr News ignores the Khamenei challenge to the opposition, preferring the Supreme Leader's exhortation to students, “The political insight and religious principles and concepts in the depth of the thoughts of the youth show that today’s younger generation cannot be stopped, and this pure reality is the guarantor of the continuation of the country’s progress.”
Only later in the article does Mehr sneak in the criticism of the Green movement, “The day after the election, some called that great election a lie without any reason or justification. Is it a minor offence?”
Press TV finally gets around to the harsh Khamenei attack on "certain people", but they prefer to avoid the issue for several paragraphs, focusing instead on "foreign attacks".
1810 GMT: Khamenei Intervenes. And the Supreme Leader's message, after the Media Fair episodes, the Mousavi-Karroubi meeting, and the University demonstrations is: Enough is Enough.
Speaking to university staff and students today, according to state television, Khamenei made his sharpest direct attack on opposition leaders since early in the post-election crisis, saying "questioning [of] the basis of the election [was] the biggest crime". He added, "Of course some people inside (Iran) may not be aware that they are moving in line with the enemies' threats, but this issue will not change the truth."
Khamenei claimed that he had sent a private message to opposition leaders, saying that they were starting would be used by enemy". He then issued a not-so-veiled challenge over further moves, claiming, "A politician has to be like a chess player & predict their moves & their results in advance."
1350 GMT: Emrooz has also posted a brief report of the Mousavi-Karroubi meeting. Rooz Online has a longer piece, focusing on the Mousavi-Karroubi discussion of Iran's relations with the "West".
1220 GMT: Did Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi meet? Mizan News says so: the four-hour discussion included consideration of the enrichment agreement with the "5+1" powers, the continuity of the Green movement, and issues related to political reform. They stated the intention to form a joint committee for these concerns, emphasising the need of further regular meetings.
1210 GMT: Thanks to new information from an EA correspondent, we've moved our initial item this morning, on the significance of university protests, to a separate entry.
1154 GMT: Amnesty International has issued a call for the release of 76-year-old Mohammad Maleki on health grounds. Maleki, former Chancellor of Tehran University, has not been seen by friends or family since 14 September. He has been suffering from prostate cancer.
1150 GMT: Families of detainees protested today in front of the office of the Tehran Prosecutor General. They were surrounded by security forces, who prevented others from joining them. (English summary from Reuters, who do not the presence of security forces)
1145 GMT:The reformist Association of Combatant Clerics have held a meeting, chaired by former President Mohammad Khatami. They called on people to demonstrate on 13 Aban (4 November) but to show restraint in the face of the regime's violent provocations.
1135 GMT: Reuters is reporting from Mehr News that Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, will present Tehran's response on Thursday to the proposal for third-party enrichment.
0945 GMT: We've posted an entry posing the question, "Why is $66 Billion Missing from Iran Government Accounts?"
0725 GMT: Karroubi Speaks Again. We've posted an English translation of his latest comments, made to journalists who visited him in his house.
0643 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran have a summary of the latest developments in the cases of post-election detainees.
0630 GMT: Pedestrian offers a fascinating account of the protest at Chamran University in Ahwaz (see video page).
The catalyst was the appearance of member of Parliament Hamid Rasaee, who has signed a letter asking the judiciary to prosecute Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. In his speech, Rasaee compared former President Mohammad Khatami to former US President George W. Bush, claiming, "The followers of Bush in Iran hide behind Khatami’s aba [clerical robe].”
The speech, which was supposed to open a conference on “soft warfare”, was greeted by screaming students wearing green and throwing empty water bottles and --- apparently --- green peppers at him. Unable to continue the speech, he responded, "We believe in the exchange of ideas and respect other people’s viewpoints but here, I am greeted with shouts of liar. We are allowing you to express your view and thus we are not dictators.”
To students' shouts of “Clumsy fool, go back to Tehran!”, he answered, “If Rasaee was a clumsy fool, 40 million people [who voted for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] would not have have given you a slap in the face”. This only brought the chant, "Liar, where is your 63% [the claimed share of the vote for Ahmadinejad on 12 June]?"
The exchange continued for some time, with students finally shouting, "Torture and confessions will no longer silence us.” The conference on soft warfare was reportedly canceled.
0600 GMT: The Government still seems to be occupied --- I would argue distracted --- with the haggling over the uranium enrichment deal. An EA reader offered the essential comment last night that Iran's call for re-negotiation of terms appears to be over a vast over-supply of its holdings for enrichment in Russia: the life of the medical research reactor is only 15 years, but the processing of 80% of Iran's stock provides 110 years of uranium.
That still leaves a curiosity: why did this apparently obvious objection not arise before the Vienna technical talks and indeed during them? Beyond that, however, there is the political impact at home. The regime seems to be scrambling and sometimes arguing amongst itself.
It is exactly one week to 13 Aban (4 November).
tagged Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Association of Combatant Clerics, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Azad University, Chamran University, Hamid Rasaee, Iran, Iran Elections, Iran Media Fair, Kalemeh, Khaje Nasir University, Mehdi Karroubi, Mehr News, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, Press TV, Reuters, Tehran University, uranium enrichment in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (27)
WIMV
Please, could you explain better what you said yesterday about enriched uranium and why this deal is not to iran's advantage; I didn't understand anything !! like "mars" vs "venus"
Thank you
We have a serious problem. We should not confuse the true green movement in Iran with a very false sea of green which is doing damage to the fight for democracy in Iran. I know my views are unpopular when we "need unity", but we have a serious problem, maybe even caused by the Supreme Leader. It very well could be MOIS or the MKO/MEK has sank their fangs deep into the green movement on the internet.
Please read http://iran115.org/blacklist
Decide for yourself.
If you have a chance read our manifesto:
http://iran115.org/manifest
Also, your comments and opinions would help us see more clearly the reality of the situation.
Thank you.
Jamshid
Ah, spam!^
Anyhoo, two disturbing dispatches from Verbrugge, which gives context to KH's latest dribble:
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/pd97" rel="nofollow">Part One
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/pdgo" rel="nofollow">Part Two
Rafsanjani's silence had me curious. Clearly, it was b/c he could not get SL on his side (or middle-ground anyway). If true, the Raf quote to Khatami is the most ominous I've seen yet.
It feels a lot like the night of June 19, no?
Jamshid,
I'm writing in a personal capacity, rather than in my role on Enduring America. I appreciate any point of view, as long as it is put respectfully and with a desire for engagement and discussion. Your "blacklist" of three people (one of whom I have worked with and am honoured to consider a colleague) is, in my opinion, an unjust slur. Your accusations that they are agents of groups advocating violent regime change or, alternatively, of the Iranian regime are reprehensible, not to mention contradictory. (The claim, however, that they are college students playing World of Warcraft does raise smile.)
S.
Kevin,
I suspect this will be our lead analysis tomorrow morning. I'm reading this differently than Mik --- it feels like SL is lashing out from concern at growing momentum of opposition. I would have thought he would have waited until after 13 Aban if he felt like he was in strong postion.
S.
[personal message rather than comment --- deleted by moderator]
^Interesting thought, Scott (BTW: C'mon Lucas, we want the FULL report on the NFL "research" you conducted Sunday!).
Maybe, in SL's mind anyway, he's essentially giving them one FINAL (He means it this time!) warning: Back down NOW, or else. Hashemi's concern, if accurate, is what troubles. If The Shark is worried...
Rafsanjani may be worried because if the SL has decide to use force, then their generations construct will collapse. Reform evolves to a new revolution.
Rafsanjani, Mousavi, Khatami, Karroubi, etc. HAD to know that this was coming. I wonder what their plan is. Their current stance of remaining defiant but not going out in public is puzzling, as is Rafsanjani's almost complete silence. Nothing about the regime's crackdown was unforseeable, and in some ways I am actually surprised it hasn't been much worse, so they must be waiting to play SOME card.
Kevina,
Rafsanjani may be worried because if the Supreme Leader is going to use force, then he knows their generations work will collapse. Reform evolves to revolution.
Funny.
I thought they were advocating non-violent resistance. A finatical form of it. Where your body goes limp when the dirty basij beat you. I was thinking they are experimenting with my country. This soft revolution crap. People who think the non-violent ideas that somewhat worked in India can be transplanted to work in Iran. People who think martin Luther King holds the answer to how Iran will become a democracy. Sorry folks; regime has read it, knows the play book, and will kill all of us if you keep pushing this theory on the people.
This is not the 1960s in the United States; this is iran's 1776.
If they want to bom Iran, why would they not be behind me 100%.
My group supports developing a bottom-up organization and insurgency using cells developed independently across the country with no affiliation with each other. The common bond would be a new constitution and manifesto which we have developed and that all would help to shape. We are providing training and education. Each cell needs to develop military, social, economic, and political components. No need to bomb Iran. The people can handle the job if they have the proper tools and support. No, I don't think it is they want to bomb Iran to the stone age, I think it is that they want to control the process. Sadly, there process and ideas are flawed.
Here is our constitution:
http://iran115.org/constitution
This is a rough draft; a template for a democratic Iran.
My take on the speech by the SL
The SL in the past threatened Karoubi, Mousavi and the Green wave leaders directly with arrest, prosecution and worst. He ordered people to stay home and called on the government to crush protests. All this lead to more people on the street and escalation of the confrontation. He has now adopted a strategy of playing hot / cold. The hot was the unity plan that went nowhere. The cold is threats . The problem and the issue is that the regime knows that by all counts 13 Aban is going to be a big day of major fireworks. He now has issues a thin veiled threat that these actions are illegal, but in comparison to the bashing's done before this is soft.
Advise to the SL
Order some Immodium to go with your Prozac and your Opium, cause on 13th of Aban you would need it.
Fars news was doing its best to make of this pharse....
Jamshid,
Non-violent resistance works. Any fighting needs to be done using selective force (i.e. taking out the known sadist, etc.). Read Gene Sharp's "From Dictatorship to Democracy", it is what the current leaders fear beacuse Iran is one step away.
In another community it was asked if we (U.S.) lost are charm for rebellion. My repsonse:
It hasn't for me. I am impressed by the Iranian Independence insurgency. The banner is the color of life, the method is civil demonstrations, the weapon is a camera phone, the goal is political evolution of a democratic republic, and, with unity, the victory is assured though battles remain to be engaged.
Saw this game before 1978-79, the current leadership has lost and what remains to be seen is how much death and destruction they cause before realizing it.
Bombing Iran will lead to total war and everyone loses.
But why do you want to blackball people? Samuel still posts here even though most do not agree with him.
Peace.
Kevin,
OK, that important NFL research 1) Tampa Bay is a truly awful team; 2) can't tell if my Patriots have a good shot at the Super Bowl because they played a truly awful team; 3) Calvin Harris (for you music fans) and NFL razz-ma-tazz don't mix; 4) someone please get a decent transport system out of Wembley.
S.
Thomas,
I have read "From Dictatorship to Democracy", and it is interesting and largely true up to a point. It is true that as long as Mousavi and Karroubi are free, and people aren't being killed, that non-violence is the best way to build the movement. However if the Green movement leaders are killed or imprisoned, that might change.
Overall Mousavi has drastically underplayed his hand from the beginning. Calling for people to stop rioting and instead peacefully protest a few days after the election was something only he could do successfully, and he should have demanded SOME concessions from Khamenei before doing that.
Further, it is hard for me to comprehend why this movement didn't turn into an indefinite national strike (this is still non-violent, but effective when the country is largely united behind you) until some serious negotiations were taking place between the Green movement and the Regime. At the very least no work should have been done until the political prisoners were freed, and their lives are still on the line as a result of Mousavi's meek strategy.
Most importantly, I think it is important for Mousavi and Karroubi to make clear to their followers that non-violence is preferred as long as it is reasonably tolerated by the authorities. If Mousavi/Karroubi are killed (they have already been assaulted) or if the government again opens fire against peaceful protesters, at that point the Green movement HAS to make a move to split the armed forces. Up until now, nobody in the Green movement or Assembly of Experts has attempted to give army personnel any signal or legal cover to turn against the regime. If Khamenei decides to go the Tiananmen Square route, it is important that he meets Causescu's end.
I have read all of Gene Sharp’s materials. I spent the last two years in Iran. I traveled to many villages and cities. I even handed out the material.
I even had a chance to meet with Gene Sharp and changed my mind. Why, because I think the concept is a theory. Like communism. It is great on paper and flawed in practice.
You will not win this struggle with the tools you mentioned. You are misleading people if you claim that you will.
Look, Iran is a rentier state. It has no need for the large population. They do not survive on taxes. This regime will kill every person if needed to stop this conflict. They will have no mercy. You are now warned. The blood of my people will be on your hands once again. Stop interfeering in my country.
Stick to donating money to real causes and reporting the news. Keep your theories in the think tank where they belong.
The only way to win is to address the military, political, and social components all at the same time.
The only way to win is bottom-up organization, military force, and a common bond of democracy to guide the fight.
Stop putting my people in danger with your experiments. We are not your lab rats.
Who ever you are.
@Jamshid Who exactely do you adress your ominous warnings
and exalted predictions to ?
'Whoever you are' ? ! Is this some video game or comix line you quote ?
You seem to have a soft spot for paranoid analysis of other people's views
and actions...
Yet your own panegyric of ' bottom up organization' to solve the IRI's
governing crisis sounds less than convincing itself ( a tad dogmatic maybe ?)
-all the same, nobody enjoins you to keep your own mastermind
theories to yourself (so far) nor accuses you of being potential
blood-shedder... Let's chill-out a bit on hyperboles and keep an open
mind is also an option ;- )
No, they just make belittling comments and accuse me of reading lines out of a commic book and others call my posts spam. No need to accuse me of being a blood shedder as making the person look a little daft will do the job.
Bottom-up organization is the best way to win. Organizing cells, establishing a constitution to live by, and providing the proper tools/organizational resources is best approach. Mousavi & Rafsanjani are playing you guys for suckers. In my humble opinion.
Rafsanjani is mafia; nothing more; nothing less. You have two factions of the mafia fighting for power, and you guys think that is going to reform Iran into a democracy.
On one side, you have the old guard, the clarics who's leader is rafsanjani.
On the other, you have the revolutionary guard, who play the supreme leader in order to maintain their power base by making him feel like... au.. a "Supreme Leader"
When are you going to figure out that Islamic Republic is organized crime? When are you going to understand they are ruthlessly tracking down people and killing young freedom fighters? When are you going to figure out MOIS and VEVAK are all over the internet and are playing the movement like a well tuned guitar.
Well November 4 is coming. And I'll be around after that to chat.
"May god have mercy on the enmies of democracy; because we won't." Until there is democracy in Iran.
Jamshid I just suggested you temper a bit your categorical
and stigmatizing judgements on people who have different opinions or
approaches than yours -is all. Besides, most people reading and writing
on this forum ARE well aware of the IRI's heavy past and present in matters
of crimes and sufferings inflicted on the population. And how do you expect to
concretize your dream of democracy and changing things in your country
if you can't even deal with dialogue in the first place or tolerate differences !
-let's not even speak of welcome them.... Good luck then !
Thank you Yseut for your comments. Jamshid/iran115 is always trashing people on #iranelection too.
Jamshid mentioned something interesting that I have heard a lot of in the Persian Exile community and even from President Obama at one point. The notion that Mousavi and Rafsanjani, since they are from the regime, wouldn't be a significant improvement from AN/Khamenei.
While I certainly understand the sentiment (Rafsanjani has been the key strategist for the regime for many years, if not from the very beginning), you need to look deeper into what they are currently saying and the history of regimes that have changed. When dictatorships have been turned into democracies, it generally does not come from a simple disappearance of the existing regime and an immediate democratic election. In every case I can think of, the major breakthrough for the democracy movement was when the hardliners within the regime were sidelined, then the reformist (or possibly transition) team ran the government while the ground was laid for democratic elections/government. This was true in every eastern european country in 1989, Spain in the 1970's, Chile in the 1980's, South Africa in 1994 etc...
If you look at the language coming from Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, and even Rafsanjani, it is not just a less harsh version of the same thing. They are calling for true reform, true democratic elections, and an atmosphere of free political expression. If they win this power struggle, it WILL lead to a democratic Iran. What exactly that will look like and how gradual it will be I don't know, but it would certainly be a major shift from the current situation and would certainly lead to much better relations with the world almost immediately.
Agreed.
If they mean what they say;
and say what they mean;
a bloody revolution may stay clean.
So I'll cross my fingers and pray to god;
that Rafsanjani is not one big fraud.
And if by chance;
His words are rants;
Then, the people must do like France?
No, I say wait;
Let people choose their fate!
A new democratic constitution that is for the people and by the people.
[URL removed by moderator. Jamshid, please do not use our comments to continuously promote your site. Your URL appears next to your name in comments, and you have already given these links in earlier comments. You don't need to provide links in every comment, and doing so runs the risk of your comments being held for approval by our spam filter. -MD]
Such a tangled web we weave, when we practice to deceive.
A message to all those foreign interests who just never learn that interfeering with iran's internal politics is never going to result in anything other than another chaotic mess; And even threatens the nation's territorial integrity .
Interfeering does include playing up support for one faction over another
; while atempting to silence true opposition that could actually make a difference; and somewhat supporting a violent terrorist cult like organization that is just a beaten bargaining chip.
But then again, what do I know?
My grasp on reality is slipping away.
yikes
Jamshid
Jamshid,
I want to join Yseut and ask you to please chill out. Insulting everyone on this blog and acting supersensitive seems to me the wrong approach for selling your view point especially to people you do not know.
I am interested to hear from you and your approach for creating a constitutional democracy in Iran. I do agree with you that current regime is a mafia organization and I have voiced that sentiment on this site many times. I do agree with you that none of the people who have severed this mafia regime has the best interest of Iran in heart. I, however, see at least two problems with your strategy and I would like you to address them. 1) What percent of Iranian population will get behind your plan and 2) How do you plan to fund it?
With regard to point #1, I believe the mullah coup of 1979 was materialized because illiterate and uninformed segment of population in Iran far exceeded the literate and informed. That picture has changed significantly today especially in the urban areas but what about rural areas? You said you travelled through villages in Iran. I am interested to hear your assessment on this point.
I believe freedom and democracy sets roots and grows strong when people are educated and have the capacity to understand it. I hate to admit this but I am pessimistic if Iran as a whole is ready for freedom and democracy. Why? I see and read views of some very sharp, educated, and well informed Iranians and often the first thing they want to do is to push out people who have different political and ideological beliefs. I see people calling other political group as saboteur of Green Movement. In a constitutional democracy the law rules and in democratic republic the majority rules and everybody accepts the outcome without calling each other saboteur and without killing each other. All the name calling or black listing or throwing people out of demonstration before the battle has been even won tells me we are not ready. Please do not misunderstand me. I am not suggesting in keeping Islamofascist in power nor am I advocating that by taking out Ahmadinejad and put in Mousavi we succeed in making Iran a democratic state. I am just wondering if Iranians are all on board with a true democratic system of government or if they are all on board for pushing mullahs back to mosques where they belong.
The second point is funding. How your proposed plan addresses the money and logistical issues? It is one thing to draft a plan on paper and it is another thing to implement it. During massive June protest, I noticed people did not have basic self defense skills or gears. They lacked the basic skill to stabilize an injured person and remove him/her to a safe location. They lacked the required killer instinct which is a must in your proposed plan.
Jamshid, I welcome your comments I only ask that you do not call Iranians as “your people”. For me that is not endearing that is an insult – Iranians are not cattle or sheep to be owned by any one. They are our country men and women (our hamvatan).
Everybody on this blog whether by birth, or marriage or just the love for freedom fighting people understands and appreciates the struggle in Iran. They are commenting because they care. I am thankful to Scott for providing this venue for those of us who ache to be there in body (and cannot) to at least be there in spirit. Who knows a country man or woman of ours may read our comments and feel that they are not alone.
"I do agree with you that none of the people who have severed this mafia regime has the best interest of Iran in heart. I, however, see at least two problems with your strategy and I would like you to address it. 1) What percent of Iranian population will get behind your plan and 2) How do you plan to fund it?"
1. I believe if citizens of Iran believed there was a true alternative to this regime, 90% of the people would passivly support a new government.
2. Funding must be by private citizens inside and outside Iran. No foreign governments.
"With regard to point #1, I believe the mullah coup of 1979 was materialized because illiterate and uninformed segment of population in Iran far exceeded the literate and informed. That picture has changed significantly today especially in the urban areas"
I completely disagree, the revolution was because of rising expectations. A new middle class that wanted more.
It was about a sick man who gave up and left the country. It was about a military that refused to take orders from a leaderless regime who wavered and sputtered.
In the end, it was highjacked by the theocracy and they consolidated their power during the Iran/Iraq war.
In the beginning it was about democracy, justice and freedom. It was about an islamic utopia.
"but what about rural areas? You said you travelled through villages in Iran. I am interested to hear your assessment on this point."
People in rural areas are more educated than you might give them credit for.
Rural Iran is far more developed than it's neighbors. It all comes down to their economic well being, the future of their children, and daily survival.
Many people in the villages of iran are healthy and strong people who survive by their wits and family unity. They are warm, loving, and surprisingly well informed. They may have super stitions and beliefs I don't agree with, but they are still amazing and interesting.
Iran reminds me of the United States if the native americans had somehow defeated the Europeans in passive agressive warfare. If that makes any sense.
"I believe freedom and democracy sets roots and grows strong when people are educated and have the capacity to understand it. I hate to admit this but I am pessimistic if Iran as a whole is ready for freedom and democracy. Why? I see and read views of some very sharp, educated, and well informed Iranians and often the first thing they want to do is to push out people who have different political and ideological beliefs. I see people calling other political group as saboteur of Green Movement. In a constitutional democracy the law rules and in democratic republic the majority rules and everybody accepts the outcome without calling each other saboteur and without killing each other. All the name calling or black listing or throwing people out of demonstration before the battle has been even won tells me we are not ready. Please do not misunderstand me. I am not suggesting in keeping Islamofascist in power nor am I advocating that by taking out Ahmadinejad and put in Mousavi we succeed in making Iran a democratic state. I am just wondering if Iranians are all on board with a true democratic system of government or if they are all on board for pushing mullahs back to mosque where they belong."
Look, in the US, about 50% of people vote. If you examine 3/4 of Washington DC, the so called capital of the world, you would question if America is ready for democracy. Iran is as ready for democracy as it will ever be. For 20 years, we have played monopoly democracy under this regime. We have had lots of practice,. And besides, what exactly are you suggesting? A dictatorship must be put in place to bring forth a democracy?
That is why i think our constitution and manifesto are important. We have to teach and preach about the god democracy.
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We have to say yes; it is ok to argue, bicker, disagree, and sometimes even yell, so long as we vote in the end and reach a decision and have some protections for minorities.
We must build the institutions for democracy district by district, village by village, and across all of Iran.
Only then will you have those roots you describe.
This is not a project I or you can do. It is only possible from the bottom-up. It can only be done. Chapter by chapter, person by person.
In regards to your passing comment about our blacklist,
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That is just as much a part of the democratic struggle as people attacking us by destroying our credibility because we encourage social, political, and military tactics.
In a democracy, people will always fight. The beauty is they don't use bullets. It is a war of words. In the end, there are checks and balances which keep coruption to a minimum, maintain the rule of law, and insures the government functions properly.
"The second point is funding. How your proposed plan addresses the money and logistical issues? It is one thing to draft a plan on paper and it is another thing to implement it. During massive June protest, I noticed people did not have basic self defense skills or gears. They lacked the basic skill to stabilize an injured person and remove him/her to a safe location. They lacked the required killer instinct which is a must in your proposed plan."
Because of the training and propaganda which even I helped to spread through Iran, we all tried the non-violent approach and tactics suggested by western institutions.
people did not fight. They peacefully resisted. And you saw what happened.
Did you know that most every adult male in Iran has military training?
In regards to funding; we need to have funding to train and educate. Each cell wil fund there own activities in their communities.
This must not be a rented revolution. There must be no landlord. People must have a sense of ownership and pride. They must build there movement and the force they create will be more powerful than you could ever imagine.
Each community must address their social, political, economic, and military issues.
We must build a new government
"Jamshid, I welcome your comments I only ask that you do not call Iranians as “your people”. For me that is not endearing that is an insult – Iranians are not cattle or sheep to be owned by any one. They are our country men and women (our hamvatan)."
agreed 100%
"Everybody on this blog whether by birth, or marriage or just the love for freedom fighting people understands and appreciates the struggle in Iran. They are commenting because they care. I am thankful to Scott for providing this venue for those of us who ache to be there in body (and cannot) to at least be there in spirit. Who knows a country man or woman of ours may read our comments and feel that they are not alone."
So am I.
Thank you.
Long live iran.
[...] it back to his site and AGAIN twists what people says. Perhaps he is just a pathological liar. The Latest from Iran (28 October): The Supreme Leader Jumps In | Enduring America I expect donations will put him into the RED this year. LOL Another account he had that was ALSO [...]