Friday
Oct302009
Latest from Iran (30 October): Now to the Real Contest
Friday, October 30, 2009 at 11:03
NEW Video: Tonight “Allahu Akhbars” at Sharif University
More Time, Please: Ahmadinejad’s Legitimacy and Iran’s Nuclear Talks
Iran: Text of Ahmadinejad Speech in Mashaad (29 October)
Iran: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting
Iran: The Supreme Leader’s Threat — Strength or Weakness?
Video: The Announcements for the 13 Aban Marches
The Latest from Iran (29 October): Opposition Momentum?
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2000 GMT: We've posted video of tonight's protests at Sharif University in Tehran.
1840 GMT: Meanwhile, despite Larijani's harsh and perhaps troublesome intervention, the Government strategy --- as signalled by the President --- unfolds. The Islamic Republic News Agency is quoting an "unnamed source" that Iran has not given an "answer" to a specific deal on third-party enrichment. Instead, "The Islamic republic only announced its positive view to the negotiation and has said it is ready to have negotiations based on its technical and economic considerations regarding how to procure fuel for the Tehran reactor." (English summary in Agence France Presse article)
Translation? Iran is trying to take the proposal for shipment of 80 percent of stock off the table, beginning from scratch on the questions of timing and amounts to be delivered to Russia. That in effect undoes three months of talks on the US-led plan while maintaining Tehran's claim that it is still committed to discussions.
1835 GMT: Larijani the Hard-Liner. What is Iran's Speaker of the Parliament playing at?
Almost two weeks after the Sistan-Baluchestan bombing, Ali Larijani cast blame upon the United States:
Larijani has now publicly levelled these charges on at least three occasions, while no one in the Ahmadinejad Government --- as the President welcomes Western concessions towards Iran in nuclear talks --- has done so. So is the Speaker of the Parliament, as we speculated earlier this week, representing the Supreme Leader's specific disquiet over the handling of the bombing? Or is this a wider effort to undermine Ahmadinejad's manoeuvres in a continued "engagement" on the nuclear issue?
1820 GMT: The Price of Defiance. Yesterday we reported --- and readers added information --- on a mathematics student from Sharif University who challenged the Supreme Leader, during his Wednesday speech to "academic elites", with a series of questions.
Well, it is reported today by Sharif University students that their classmate, Mahmoud Vahidnia, was taken away on Thursday night by Revolutionary Guard agents for questioning. His family were told he would only be detained for an hour but have still not heard from him; they have been told by other students that he is fine but cannot talk. It is also claimed that the family has been warned not to speak about the case.
1800 GMT: There are some interesting points on Iran's uranium enrichment coming out of an article by Julian Borger of The Guardian, "The fading of an Iranian mirage". Borger's piece is useful primarily for his exposure of the US-led strategy behind the third-party enrichment deal, "[Iran]wants to hand over the uranium in batches as the fuel rods are delivered. In that scenario, Iran's stockpile of LEU – currently enough to make a bomb – is not reduced, even for a few months. There is no diplomatic dividend, in the form of reduced tensions and negotiating space."
The real meat for discussion about the Iranian programme are in the comments being made by readers about the uranium stockpile.
1425 GMT: And Now, Your Friday Prayer from Tehran, Courtesy of Ayatollah Emami-Kashani.
1. Foreigners Are Devious: "We must identify where the enemy seeks to penetrate the Islamic establishment and then counter it."
2. But Other Foreigners Think Iran's Science (and Nuclear Programme?) Is Fabulous. "We must realize that aside from enemy media outlets, the rest of the world supports the Islamic and scientific movements in Iran. When science is founded upon faith and Islam, no one will be able to stop it."
3. But Remember, Those First Foreigners Are Devious and Jealous. "History has shown that the Islamic civilization, which incorporates science, faith and effort, was taking over the world, when certain parties stepped in and laid claim to the achievements of Muslims. They proclaimed themselves as the owners of the world and enslaved Muslim countries."
4. So Don't Think of Criticising Us. "Criticism that is intended to help make progress is good, but views that are expressed to belittle [the] others are not acceptable in any way."
1405 GMT: Report that all the workers arrested last week in connection with a strike at an Ahwaz pipe factory have now been released.
1400 GMT: Tagheer, the website associated with Mehdi Karroubi, has published a series of photos of Etemade Melli editor-in-chief Mohammad Ghoochani (left), released on bail today after 131 days in detention (see 0945 GMT).
1310 GMT: Ayatollah Montazeri, in solidarity with detainees and their families, has declared that he will not be celebrating Imam Reza's birthday. (English summary on Facebook site associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi)
1300 GMT: Report that Iran's Prosecutor General has confirmed three death sentences previously announced for post-election detainees are final.
1050 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, a fervent critic of the Government during the post-election crisis, has suffered a heart attack and is in intensive care in a hospital in Qom.
0945 GMT: Islamic Labour News Agency is confirming the report that Mohammad Ghoochani, the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper, has been released on $100,000 bail after 131 days in detention.
An EA source adds that Ghoochani was freed at midnight, with no notice to his family, and took a taxi home.
0700 GMT: A slow start to the day so we've focused on an analysis of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political move yesterday, using the nuclear issue to shore up and boost his Presidential legitimacy. We've also posted an extract from his speech in Mashaad.
The quick summary? While the Western media worries over the nuclear question, the sharper-eyed should look towards the bigger issue and bigger battle: Ahmadinejad's quest to establish his authority both against the opposition and against challengers within the regime. We now have the English translation of this week's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, setting up their next moves, and the videos being circulated for the 13 Aban demonstrations.
It is five days to 13 Aban (4 November).
More Time, Please: Ahmadinejad’s Legitimacy and Iran’s Nuclear Talks
Iran: Text of Ahmadinejad Speech in Mashaad (29 October)
Iran: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting
Iran: The Supreme Leader’s Threat — Strength or Weakness?
Video: The Announcements for the 13 Aban Marches
The Latest from Iran (29 October): Opposition Momentum?
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2000 GMT: We've posted video of tonight's protests at Sharif University in Tehran.1840 GMT: Meanwhile, despite Larijani's harsh and perhaps troublesome intervention, the Government strategy --- as signalled by the President --- unfolds. The Islamic Republic News Agency is quoting an "unnamed source" that Iran has not given an "answer" to a specific deal on third-party enrichment. Instead, "The Islamic republic only announced its positive view to the negotiation and has said it is ready to have negotiations based on its technical and economic considerations regarding how to procure fuel for the Tehran reactor." (English summary in Agence France Presse article)
Translation? Iran is trying to take the proposal for shipment of 80 percent of stock off the table, beginning from scratch on the questions of timing and amounts to be delivered to Russia. That in effect undoes three months of talks on the US-led plan while maintaining Tehran's claim that it is still committed to discussions.
1835 GMT: Larijani the Hard-Liner. What is Iran's Speaker of the Parliament playing at?
Almost two weeks after the Sistan-Baluchestan bombing, Ali Larijani cast blame upon the United States:
Reliable evidence shows the US played a role in the recent move. The Iranian nation should correctly recognize the US for what it is. The United States and Israel are the main culprits of these events and known enemies of the Iranian nation.
Larijani has now publicly levelled these charges on at least three occasions, while no one in the Ahmadinejad Government --- as the President welcomes Western concessions towards Iran in nuclear talks --- has done so. So is the Speaker of the Parliament, as we speculated earlier this week, representing the Supreme Leader's specific disquiet over the handling of the bombing? Or is this a wider effort to undermine Ahmadinejad's manoeuvres in a continued "engagement" on the nuclear issue?
1820 GMT: The Price of Defiance. Yesterday we reported --- and readers added information --- on a mathematics student from Sharif University who challenged the Supreme Leader, during his Wednesday speech to "academic elites", with a series of questions.
Well, it is reported today by Sharif University students that their classmate, Mahmoud Vahidnia, was taken away on Thursday night by Revolutionary Guard agents for questioning. His family were told he would only be detained for an hour but have still not heard from him; they have been told by other students that he is fine but cannot talk. It is also claimed that the family has been warned not to speak about the case.
1800 GMT: There are some interesting points on Iran's uranium enrichment coming out of an article by Julian Borger of The Guardian, "The fading of an Iranian mirage". Borger's piece is useful primarily for his exposure of the US-led strategy behind the third-party enrichment deal, "[Iran]wants to hand over the uranium in batches as the fuel rods are delivered. In that scenario, Iran's stockpile of LEU – currently enough to make a bomb – is not reduced, even for a few months. There is no diplomatic dividend, in the form of reduced tensions and negotiating space."
The real meat for discussion about the Iranian programme are in the comments being made by readers about the uranium stockpile.
1425 GMT: And Now, Your Friday Prayer from Tehran, Courtesy of Ayatollah Emami-Kashani.
1. Foreigners Are Devious: "We must identify where the enemy seeks to penetrate the Islamic establishment and then counter it."
2. But Other Foreigners Think Iran's Science (and Nuclear Programme?) Is Fabulous. "We must realize that aside from enemy media outlets, the rest of the world supports the Islamic and scientific movements in Iran. When science is founded upon faith and Islam, no one will be able to stop it."
3. But Remember, Those First Foreigners Are Devious and Jealous. "History has shown that the Islamic civilization, which incorporates science, faith and effort, was taking over the world, when certain parties stepped in and laid claim to the achievements of Muslims. They proclaimed themselves as the owners of the world and enslaved Muslim countries."
4. So Don't Think of Criticising Us. "Criticism that is intended to help make progress is good, but views that are expressed to belittle [the] others are not acceptable in any way."
1405 GMT: Report that all the workers arrested last week in connection with a strike at an Ahwaz pipe factory have now been released.
1400 GMT: Tagheer, the website associated with Mehdi Karroubi, has published a series of photos of Etemade Melli editor-in-chief Mohammad Ghoochani (left), released on bail today after 131 days in detention (see 0945 GMT).
1310 GMT: Ayatollah Montazeri, in solidarity with detainees and their families, has declared that he will not be celebrating Imam Reza's birthday. (English summary on Facebook site associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi)
1300 GMT: Report that Iran's Prosecutor General has confirmed three death sentences previously announced for post-election detainees are final.
1050 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, a fervent critic of the Government during the post-election crisis, has suffered a heart attack and is in intensive care in a hospital in Qom.
0945 GMT: Islamic Labour News Agency is confirming the report that Mohammad Ghoochani, the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper, has been released on $100,000 bail after 131 days in detention.
An EA source adds that Ghoochani was freed at midnight, with no notice to his family, and took a taxi home.
0700 GMT: A slow start to the day so we've focused on an analysis of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political move yesterday, using the nuclear issue to shore up and boost his Presidential legitimacy. We've also posted an extract from his speech in Mashaad.
The quick summary? While the Western media worries over the nuclear question, the sharper-eyed should look towards the bigger issue and bigger battle: Ahmadinejad's quest to establish his authority both against the opposition and against challengers within the regime. We now have the English translation of this week's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, setting up their next moves, and the videos being circulated for the 13 Aban demonstrations.
It is five days to 13 Aban (4 November).
tagged 13 Aban, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani, Etemade Melli, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Julian Borger, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud Vahidnia, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Ghoochani, Nuclear Proliferation, Tagheer, The Guardian, uranium enrichment in Middle East & Iran
13 Aban, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani, Etemade Melli, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Julian Borger, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud Vahidnia, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Ghoochani, Nuclear Proliferation, Tagheer, The Guardian, uranium enrichment in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (14)
Moscow has officially asked for added security around Russian embassy in Tehran on 13 Abaan (November 4). I understand Green Movement was planning to protest in front of Russian Embassy. Regime most likely will prevent that by stationing its own supporters plus plain clothes forces in that area.
The countdown has begun.
"Ayatollah Montazeri, in solidarity with detainees and their families, has declared that he will not be celebrating Imam Reza’s birthday."
What a piece of fraud this Montazeri is. I guess next year he'll celebrate Ramadan by stuffing himself all day long with pork and wine, all in solidarity with the detainees of course.
Fortunately we know very well who and what Montazeri is. After all the Ayatollah Khomeini told us in blunt terms:
http://www.baabeilm.org/khomeini/montezari.pdf
"Since you became a mouthpice of the hypocrites and your speeches have conveyed their wishes and letters to the people via the mass media, you have inflicted heavy blows on Islam and the revolution. This is a great act of treason against the unknown soldiers of the Lord of the Age, may our souls be sacrificed for him, and against the sacrifices made by the illustrious martyrs of Islam and the revolution. If you wish to save yourself from hell fire, you had better confess to all your sins and mistakes and maybe then God will help you."
I very much doubt that there will be fireworks around the Russian embassy. There was a lot of communication from the green wave leadership calling for no action against any specific country's embassy that could jeopardize the movement. There was a lot of calls for this, but people are being told that its a bad idea to storm embassies and to do anything out of the ordinary. Rather all the leaderships call has been for peaceful protest and also for vigilance and caution not to give the enemy the ability to shine a negative light on the movement.
The 1425 update is absolute primo Lucas :)
Do you think that the University of Birmingham would like a 36 year old American, who already has two degrees that he hasn't really used for anything substantial, as a brand new student next year? ;-)
Mahmood Vahidnia really spoke truth to power. People like you get Iran some hope to move beyond this regime.
The man in the picture in this post does not look like Mahmud Vahidnia if we believe this video that shows this brave young man scolding KH: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyMavmZD6TU&translated=1
Incidentally, I do not understand why people sit on the floor in presence of this Supreme Loon. Regime cannot afford to buy chairs or are chairs also anti Islam and enemy of God? It cannot be anti Islam or enemy of God or a Western custom because the Supreme Fool is sitting on one. I am guessing for the Supreme Fool to feel supremacy he needs to look down on people in which case I suggest let him sit on a pole. Respect is earned through ones action and looking down on people is not one of them.
About Larijani, I think he is trying to bolster his "hawkish" credentials for the next elections. He might be Khamenei's favorite as the next president.
Larijani is probably Khamenei's favorite as next president, but he isn't waiting until the next elections. He is the most likely compromise interim candidate if Khamenei decides to negotiate with the Greens.
I believe the photo in this post is Mohammad Ghochani following his release from prison. It is not Mahmud Vahidnia, the brave student. link: http://www.fararu.com/vdchkznx.23nk-dftt2.html
Apologies to all. I had featured the Ghoochani photograph earlier in the day and did not change it when the Vahidnia news came out.
S.
Kevin,
I'm certain the University would join my welcome to you and others, "Give us your tired, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free" (but hold off on "give us your poor" --- after all, even a top-quality institution can use a few bucks).
S.
Scott,
As we discussed on an earlier post the theory is now the truth. Iran wants to bake its own cake and eat it. The real issue has and always will be about Iran controlling its stock or enriched uranium. In essence if Iran continues to block stock being sent out we will all be back to square one. This begs the question of why. As many believe this is all about Iran retaining the possibility of having enough stock to pursue a bomb if they desire. Pakistan followed an almost identical path so one could conclude this is Iran's path as well. I am not entirely sold on their pursuit of the bomb but with this regime who lives through deception no one can say for sure. I did like your take on the poltical moves ongoing. It will be interesting to see how much damage competing factions in Iran will cause using the nuclear issue to achieve their ends. It sort of says Iran realizes it cannot win the nuclear issue so lets use it for what we can before its solved.
thx
Bill
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