Sunday
Nov082009
The Latest from Iran (8 November): Challenge Renewing?
Sunday, November 8, 2009 at 19:25
NEW Latest Iran Video: Mehdi Karroubi on the 13 Aban Protests
NEW Iran: An Opposition Renewing, A Government in Trouble
Iran: Question for the Regime “What’s Your Next Punch?”
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban & from Today (8 November)
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
The Latest from Iran (7 November): Regrouping
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2215 GMT: On? Off? Well, I guess for a day that started with a projection of Government uncertainty, it is appropriate that it should end that way. Having said on Saturday that Iran could reject the Vienna enrichment deal, top lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1016801/1/.html on Sunday, "Our first option is to buy fuel of 20 per cent (enrichment). But if we cannot buy it we could make a limited exchange on condition that first we get fuel of 20 per cent."
So is Boroujerdi shifting in recognition that pro-deal forces have pressed ahead (see 1640 GMT)? Or is he just manoeuvring for a better position, working with allies, to hold out against any agreement?
2030 GMT: Another day with some releases from prison and some cases going to trial. The file of Mohsen Aminzadeh, Deputy Foreign Minister in the Khatami Government, has been sent to the Revolutionary Court.
1930 GMT: An Iranian blogger reports that Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi, the former Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, was met by sustained protests when he visited Gilan University in northern Iran today and left to shouts of "Murderer, Get Out!". We have video in a separate entry.
1850 GMT: Three Iranian judges have reported been fired because of their connection with the Kahrizak Prison, infamous for alleged abuse of detainees.
1640 GMT: Nuclear Deal On? Yes, the Ahmadinejad Government is pressing ahead, despite objections from within the establishment.
"Diplomats close to nuclear negotiations" say that Iran will offer a two-stage delivery of uranium to be enriched in Russia. Each delivery will consist of 400 kilogrammes. The total of 800 kilogrammes, or just over half of Iran's current stock of uranium, compares with a single delivery of 1200 kilogrammes in the proposal from October's Vienna talks.
The revelation of Iran's counter-offer may have been prompted by the gathering flurry of voice in Iran's state media saying no deal was possible (see yesterday's updates and 1300 GMT). Or it may be connected with a visit, reported in Fars News, of Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov to Tehran.
1620 GMT: Presidential Confusion. Here's the latest explanation for why Ahmadinejad did not appear last night. He was going to speak about his subsidy reform bill but then decided not to appear, since this might pre-empt Parliament's discussion on the measure today. The director of his Public Relations Department now says, "The interview is slated for next week." He added:
Understand that? I don't. Accept it? No again.
1605 GMT: For What It's Worth. Parliament's National Security Commission has announced that it will investigate the events of 13 Aban.
1545 GMT: Correction on the Bread Story. An EA correspondent checks in to clarify the economic situation in Iran:
1535 GMT: Rafsanjani Surfaces. The former President has met members of Parliament from the Western Provinces. He has once again called for a constructive social and political dialogue. Implicitly criticising post-election coverage by state media, he said concerns must be heard and the creation of unity through due legal process and avoidance of extreme and divisive actions is a necessity.
1510 GMT: Appearing in Revolutionary Court, Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, has denied all charges against him.
1310 GMT: Mediaflash --- Iranian Politics Makes Washington Post Columnist's Head Explode. It's not just the headline of David Ignatius' column, "Iran's 'Great Satan' addiction", that indicates ill-informed stereotype and hysterical pseudo-analysis is to follow. There is his ignorance of any aspect to the Iranian post-election crisis other than the "nuclear issue" and his reduction of Iran's politics to Ahmadinejad v. the Reformists (and then Khamenei Jumps In).
What really gives offence is that Ignatius won't admit that the "Great Satan" problem lies not with the Green movement but with his own inability to appreciate 1) that opposing the regime does not necessarily mean giving up a claim to Iran's sovereignty over nuclear energy and 2) that opposition to Ahmadinejad's tactics of negotiation with the US has more to do with criticism of the President's quest for legitimacy than it does with anti-Americanism. Thus this well-connected Washington columnist throws out the Green opposition as a movement tainted with an incurable Iranian disease:
1300 GMT: Nuclear Deal Off?A "well-informed" Iranian source has rejected the compromise "third-party enrichment" proposal of Mohammad El Baradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Only yesterday Iranian state media were featuring El Baradei's suggestion Turkey to replace France as the third country with Russia and Iran in the enrichment plan, but the source claims, "It seems the IAEA chief is trying to take advantage of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Turkey to gain media coverage on a closed issue."
It remains to be seen whether the source is part of the Ahmadinejad camp, indicating that third-party enrichment is now dead as a negotiating possibliity, or whether he is connected to Iranian politicians trying to undermine the deal (and possibly the President).
1255 GMT: An Ahmadinejad Victory. Amidst the apparent turmoil within the Government, the President did pick up a big win on Sunday when the Parliament approved proposals to redistribute money saved from subsidy cuts. The Parliament, however, retains a say in the plan, as the cash in the state budget where the legislators have oversight powers.
1145 GMT: Press TV is now featuring news of Ali Larijani's meeting with senior Iraqi clerics, including Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Unsurprisingly, there are no indications of whether the talks focused on Iranian or Iraqi politics, only general platitudes such as Larijani "underlin[ing] the importance of religious authorities' viewpoints in resolving various issues among Muslims".
0910 GMT: We have posted Mehdi Karroubi's video statement on 13 Aban.
0835 GMT: With news coming in of the Karroubi video and uncertainty over Ahmadinejad's moves, we've split off our initial update as a separate analysis, "An Opposition Renewing, A Government in Trouble".
0825 GMT: Yes, Challenge Renewing. Mehdi Karroubi has just released a video statement on the 13 Aban protests. He declares that the Government has failed to put down the opposition with force and points to the Ahmadinejad hypocrisy of backing anti-US protests while negotiating with Washington.
0815 GMT: Busted! Ahmadinejad's Cancelled Speech and the Trip to Ankara. And here is the revelation that the President's 2nd postponement of his post-13 Aban speech is a sign of a Government in trouble. From the Chinese news service Xinhua:
So Ahmadinejad knew he was going to Turkey 48 hours before 13 Aban. And that exposes his excuse, more than 48 hours after 13 Aban, that he had to cancel his Saturday speech because he suddenly noticed he was going to Ankara.
0750 GMT: Will Russia Shift on Sanctions? As those opposed to the enrichment deal sent out their message yesterday through MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev declared, in an interview with Germany's Der Spiegel magazine, that Iran must abide by international rules and not hide its nuclear facilities. He added that it would be better to avoid sanctions, but they cannot be excluded if there is no progress in the talks.
It should be remembered that Medvedev offered a similar statement after the "revelation" of the second enrichment facility in September and that Der Spiegel has a tendency towards sensationalism in its coverage of Iran. So this feels more like a bit of pressure from Moscow for Iran to keep negotiating on an enrichment deal, rather than a threat of imminent sanctions.
0735 GMT: A Symbol? Today's update picture (left) is of an empty University classroom. The inscription on the wall, "Death to Khamenei".
NEW Iran: An Opposition Renewing, A Government in Trouble
Iran: Question for the Regime “What’s Your Next Punch?”
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban & from Today (8 November)
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
The Latest from Iran (7 November): Regrouping
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2215 GMT: On? Off? Well, I guess for a day that started with a projection of Government uncertainty, it is appropriate that it should end that way. Having said on Saturday that Iran could reject the Vienna enrichment deal, top lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1016801/1/.html on Sunday, "Our first option is to buy fuel of 20 per cent (enrichment). But if we cannot buy it we could make a limited exchange on condition that first we get fuel of 20 per cent."
So is Boroujerdi shifting in recognition that pro-deal forces have pressed ahead (see 1640 GMT)? Or is he just manoeuvring for a better position, working with allies, to hold out against any agreement?
2030 GMT: Another day with some releases from prison and some cases going to trial. The file of Mohsen Aminzadeh, Deputy Foreign Minister in the Khatami Government, has been sent to the Revolutionary Court.
1930 GMT: An Iranian blogger reports that Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi, the former Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, was met by sustained protests when he visited Gilan University in northern Iran today and left to shouts of "Murderer, Get Out!". We have video in a separate entry.
1850 GMT: Three Iranian judges have reported been fired because of their connection with the Kahrizak Prison, infamous for alleged abuse of detainees.
1640 GMT: Nuclear Deal On? Yes, the Ahmadinejad Government is pressing ahead, despite objections from within the establishment.
"Diplomats close to nuclear negotiations" say that Iran will offer a two-stage delivery of uranium to be enriched in Russia. Each delivery will consist of 400 kilogrammes. The total of 800 kilogrammes, or just over half of Iran's current stock of uranium, compares with a single delivery of 1200 kilogrammes in the proposal from October's Vienna talks.
The revelation of Iran's counter-offer may have been prompted by the gathering flurry of voice in Iran's state media saying no deal was possible (see yesterday's updates and 1300 GMT). Or it may be connected with a visit, reported in Fars News, of Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov to Tehran.
1620 GMT: Presidential Confusion. Here's the latest explanation for why Ahmadinejad did not appear last night. He was going to speak about his subsidy reform bill but then decided not to appear, since this might pre-empt Parliament's discussion on the measure today. The director of his Public Relations Department now says, "The interview is slated for next week." He added:
Such a relation [between postponement and Parliament's subsidy reform discussions] cannot be denied but other issues may also be involved. However, what Fars news agency has issued is not what we announced and they have offered their own comment. Actually it will be disrespectful to people if we declare that the interview was not conducted due to the president's other engagements.
Understand that? I don't. Accept it? No again.
1605 GMT: For What It's Worth. Parliament's National Security Commission has announced that it will investigate the events of 13 Aban.
1545 GMT: Correction on the Bread Story. An EA correspondent checks in to clarify the economic situation in Iran:
The rising bread prices in Tehran are not a result of the subsidy plan, which has not even been ratified by the Majlis [Parliament] or the Guardian Council. The changes in Tehran's bread prices stem from the Government's experiment with higher-quality wheat in the bread. For this they have to charge more, even with the subsidized price, to bakers. They first did this in Karaj (a suburb of Tehran) after the election. No bread riots there, even though it is a poorer area. Then they expanded it through Tehran slowly.
1535 GMT: Rafsanjani Surfaces. The former President has met members of Parliament from the Western Provinces. He has once again called for a constructive social and political dialogue. Implicitly criticising post-election coverage by state media, he said concerns must be heard and the creation of unity through due legal process and avoidance of extreme and divisive actions is a necessity.
1510 GMT: Appearing in Revolutionary Court, Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, has denied all charges against him.
1310 GMT: Mediaflash --- Iranian Politics Makes Washington Post Columnist's Head Explode. It's not just the headline of David Ignatius' column, "Iran's 'Great Satan' addiction", that indicates ill-informed stereotype and hysterical pseudo-analysis is to follow. There is his ignorance of any aspect to the Iranian post-election crisis other than the "nuclear issue" and his reduction of Iran's politics to Ahmadinejad v. the Reformists (and then Khamenei Jumps In).
What really gives offence is that Ignatius won't admit that the "Great Satan" problem lies not with the Green movement but with his own inability to appreciate 1) that opposing the regime does not necessarily mean giving up a claim to Iran's sovereignty over nuclear energy and 2) that opposition to Ahmadinejad's tactics of negotiation with the US has more to do with criticism of the President's quest for legitimacy than it does with anti-Americanism. Thus this well-connected Washington columnist throws out the Green opposition as a movement tainted with an incurable Iranian disease:
Rather than speak up for dialogue with the United States, many of the reformists gathered around former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi decided instead to score political points against Ahmadinejad. The past month has been a reminder that the very existence and legitimacy of Khamenei's regime are interwoven with a defiant anti-Americanism. This legacy infects even the reformers who protest against Khamenei.
1300 GMT: Nuclear Deal Off?A "well-informed" Iranian source has rejected the compromise "third-party enrichment" proposal of Mohammad El Baradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Only yesterday Iranian state media were featuring El Baradei's suggestion Turkey to replace France as the third country with Russia and Iran in the enrichment plan, but the source claims, "It seems the IAEA chief is trying to take advantage of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Turkey to gain media coverage on a closed issue."
It remains to be seen whether the source is part of the Ahmadinejad camp, indicating that third-party enrichment is now dead as a negotiating possibliity, or whether he is connected to Iranian politicians trying to undermine the deal (and possibly the President).
1255 GMT: An Ahmadinejad Victory. Amidst the apparent turmoil within the Government, the President did pick up a big win on Sunday when the Parliament approved proposals to redistribute money saved from subsidy cuts. The Parliament, however, retains a say in the plan, as the cash in the state budget where the legislators have oversight powers.
1145 GMT: Press TV is now featuring news of Ali Larijani's meeting with senior Iraqi clerics, including Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Unsurprisingly, there are no indications of whether the talks focused on Iranian or Iraqi politics, only general platitudes such as Larijani "underlin[ing] the importance of religious authorities' viewpoints in resolving various issues among Muslims".
0910 GMT: We have posted Mehdi Karroubi's video statement on 13 Aban.
0835 GMT: With news coming in of the Karroubi video and uncertainty over Ahmadinejad's moves, we've split off our initial update as a separate analysis, "An Opposition Renewing, A Government in Trouble".
0825 GMT: Yes, Challenge Renewing. Mehdi Karroubi has just released a video statement on the 13 Aban protests. He declares that the Government has failed to put down the opposition with force and points to the Ahmadinejad hypocrisy of backing anti-US protests while negotiating with Washington.
0815 GMT: Busted! Ahmadinejad's Cancelled Speech and the Trip to Ankara. And here is the revelation that the President's 2nd postponement of his post-13 Aban speech is a sign of a Government in trouble. From the Chinese news service Xinhua:
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will depart to Turkey on Nov. 8 to take part in the economic summit of Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in the country, the official IRNA news agency reported on Monday.
So Ahmadinejad knew he was going to Turkey 48 hours before 13 Aban. And that exposes his excuse, more than 48 hours after 13 Aban, that he had to cancel his Saturday speech because he suddenly noticed he was going to Ankara.
0750 GMT: Will Russia Shift on Sanctions? As those opposed to the enrichment deal sent out their message yesterday through MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev declared, in an interview with Germany's Der Spiegel magazine, that Iran must abide by international rules and not hide its nuclear facilities. He added that it would be better to avoid sanctions, but they cannot be excluded if there is no progress in the talks.
It should be remembered that Medvedev offered a similar statement after the "revelation" of the second enrichment facility in September and that Der Spiegel has a tendency towards sensationalism in its coverage of Iran. So this feels more like a bit of pressure from Moscow for Iran to keep negotiating on an enrichment deal, rather than a threat of imminent sanctions.
0735 GMT: A Symbol? Today's update picture (left) is of an empty University classroom. The inscription on the wall, "Death to Khamenei".
tagged Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Ali Larijani, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Baradei, Behzad Nabavi, Dmitri Medvedev, Gilan University, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Kahrizak Prison, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi, Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, Morteza Alviri, Sergei Ryabkov in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (34)
Interesting article by Ray Takeyh, the author of a recent book on Iran. Of course most of it is a rabid attack against the Govt. but he does acknowledge the significant steps taken by the govt. to combat the internal threat. As is inevitable with the Western press he gets the timing wrong by presenting these govt. moves as recent (as in post-election). The truth is that Jafari started restructuring the Pasdaran over two years ago knowing that the threat of a velvet revolution was real.
The real value of the piece is in recognizing Naqdi's central role as the new head of the Basij's. The pitiful Greenie performance of 13 Aban owes much to the planning and leadership of Naqdi. It truly was Naqdi's day.
Since many here are so fond of sport analogies I'll try my own. Naqdi's judicious use of force (no one was killed on 13 Aban) reminded me of the magnificent play of Carles Puyol, the star defender for FC Barcelona. Puyol never uses more energy than he has to stop the other team. Sometimes it is a skillfull tackle, sometimes it is pure power and sometimes it is a superhuman leap in the air to head a ball away. http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/06/20/sports/20spain_650x575.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/06/20/sports/20spainfloater.2.ready.html&usg=__mOINbrRdkN6QNNaMIWQoI3A8wdY=&h=575&w=650&sz=102&hl=en&start=28&um=1&tbnid=ZTjHCRNkLMCclM:&tbnh=121&tbnw=137&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dpuyol%26ndsp%3D18%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26start%3D18%26um%3D1
_______________________________________
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/04/AR2009110403873.html
Key quote:
"International scrutiny remains trained on Iran's nuclear program, but outside that glare, the structure and orientation of the Revolutionary Guards are changing dramatically. The regime in Tehran is establishing the infrastructure for repression. The leadership of the Guards and the paramilitary Basij force have been integrated and are much more focused on vanquishing imaginary plots by a (nonexistent) fifth column. Indeed, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari, warned in a speech last month that the structural changes were intended to "take on cultural divisions and the opposition to the soft war." To oversee the new campaign of repression, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, formerly deputy director of the Quds Brigades intelligence apparatus, has been appointed head of the Basij. Hossein Taeb, the notorious former commander of the Basij, has assumed leadership of the Guards intelligence bureau."
It doesn't take much brilliant planning to massacre, beat, arrest and otherwise brutalize unarmed young Iranians who have sworn off violence. Particularly women, who already were constant targets of subjugation and brutalization by the Iranian regime. I also fail to understand how peacefully expressing dismay at the stealing of a vote that was overwhelmingly won by Mousavi qualifies as an internal threat that justifies the Government's orgy of violence against Iran's young people.
Further, you should be thanking Mojtaba Khamenei for leading the basij in this massacre, as he appears to have been the "mastermind". He will only be able to do so, however, as long as oil exports are plentiful and monopolized by his father. Any serious sustained disruption in Iran's oil production or transport would be the end.
0825 GMT: Yes, Challenge Renewing. Mehdi Karroubi ... points to the Ahmadinejad hypocrisy of backing anti-US protests while negotiating with Washington.
Is it really a challenge or is it only the appearance of a challenge? Iranians want another kind of relations with the rest of the world as reader Hossein made it clear in several messages, whereas Karroubi is in fact backing the AN government in its refusal to talk with the west (il est plus royaliste que le roi).
Regarding 0815 GMT: How dare you jump to such conclusions. Mahmoud is a busy man and fell asleep in prayers again. After a reprimand, I instructed him to study American culture so he can better ingratiate himself with the Obama fool. His English is not that good and he was supervising the preparation of a Thanksgiving Day turkey as a Trojan Horse gift for the Americans at the secret meeting for the special envoy. He could not make the speech because of the turkey preparation, not because he was going to Turkey.
In any case, loyal supporters need not worry: talking with the West is just a game. We do whatever we want to preserve the proper fruits of the Revolution. We know of your Machiavelli but our culture is much more ancient and superior. Mahmoud can be devious when he needs to be (with a little coaching). He's not as dumb as he looks. We'll see if he survives his studies without severe prejudice...
We are very much still going in circles just waiting. We will go nowhere untill the Guards arrest the opposition heads, the S.L dies or strikes are started.
But to carry on with our good Friend SAMUEL's sport analogie. The Guards can't knock the opposition out and the opposition is playing the ropes. Which may remind many of the greatest Boxing match of all time where an old slower Mohamad Ali had to face a young brutal young boxer, The Champion Big George Foreman with a Clean sheet of 40-0 (37 KO's)
Rumble in the Jungle was a match where Ali perhaps due to his old age or/and perhaps the incredible strenght of his opponent changed his boxing style and instead of attacking and his usual dancing played the ROPES. He took a beating from the first second and after the first round you could see the fear in Ali's eyes. But he stayed in the ropes and let the big bad giant powned him, round after round after round. Ali threw in the occasional Jab but mostly took punches and hanged on for dear life. The only other thing he did was to keep provoking the giant. The more he provoked the harder the giant came down on him and the more the giant came down the more Ali leand and let the punches come.
This untill the giant got tired, whatever he threw Ali did not go down. In round 5 the Big George's punches seemed to lack the thunder of the earlier punches and in round 8 he was running on empty but still being provoked to pound on. And it was at this moment where Ali still in the ropes and taking punches, countered and landed a few heavy jabs and hooks. The Giant went down and the fight was over.
Rumble in the Jungle. The greates fight of all time. Ali beat the odds, surprised the world, provoked, took a hell of a beating but KO'd the big bad giant in round 8.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIxIPz4MIAE&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNTdUfByIhY
To Afshin
As we can see in the very good documentary "When we were kings", Ali began with an harassing tactic BEFORE the fight, enraging Foreman, who was thirsting for revenge and threw all he got in the first rounds, which would prove fatal to him. Likewise the reform movement has infuriated the regime, particularly in the weeks before the election/coup. We all know how the regime reacted. It's gonna be a hard long fight, the greens will take more punches, but in the end, like Foreman, this illegitimate regime will fall
Scott,
Sorry to beat the nuclear drum, ad nauseum, but Arabiya TV is saying that Russia's Deputy FM Ryabkov is "visiting Tehran for a very brief visit, today," and I see no mention of it anywhere else. Have you seen any Iranian confirmation? One might extrapolate that such a visit is to be expected, since Ryabkov was part of the Russian negotiating team at the nuclear talks, and Moscow might want to try pressuring Tehran to accept the deal before joining any sanctions bandwagon.
Edward
Edward,
I will check --- I think Fars may have put out the story this morning. I agree with your interpretation re Russian moves.
S.
@Adam,
"Massacre" on 13 Aban??? Where did this massacre take place, in your dreams?? I'm specifically referring to Naqdi who has been the head of the Basij for one month. Let me repeat no one was killed on 13 Aban or on Qods day either.
If you want to talk about massacres look to American Army bases where American Army soldiers seem to be massacring each other.
Edward,
On the Ryabkov story --- Borzou Daragahi was "tweeting" this morning that Fars News was carrying the story. See update at 1645 GMT for possible connection with latest developments.
S.
Samuel, You must be so proud of your Basiji brothers. They seem especially talented at beating up unarmed young women. Of course they don't discriminate and are happy to attack unarmed old women and children and men as well.
Nancy,
Ah yes the lovely, the peaceful, the placid ones who would like to cut Khamenei's throat. Don't worry the Basij have confidential orders from Naqdi to hand these out at the next protests.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/toyohara/65545560/
Samuel
"T'es trop lourd !!" translation :" how you are heavy !!" don't make me laugh !
New Israeli Strategic Study analyzes possible Iran-Israel war:
Of course considering the source this is undoubtedly part Zionist propaganda but it is always good to know how the enemy thinks.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1126421.html
"But how will an Israel-Iran war look if it breaks out eventually? This question is at the center of a new study compiled by the Defense Ministry. Researcher Dr. Moshe Vered writes that such a war could go on for a long time. He believes that the Iranian's typical willingness to sacrifice many victims for a long period of time in a conflict with Israel will dictate a prolonged war between the two states, which will be difficult to end.
Dr. Vered, a physicist, occupies various roles in the defense establishment's technology division. He published his study this week as part of a sabbatical at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University. He argues that the length of an Israel-Iran war "will be measured in year, not in weeks or days." This stems from the Shiite perception by which one must fight and sacrifice for the sake of justice and to correct wrongs to Islam and to Muslims. "This outlook sees Israel's existence as a wrong that must be corrected for the sake of world redemption. The achievement of this goal will only be possible once Israel is annihilated. The Iranians will continue fighting this war, as much as it is up to them, until they achieve their objective, despite the heavy toll that will be exacted in battle," Vered writes.
Vered argues further that only the fear the Iranian regime being toppled could bring such a war to an end. But, it seems unlikely that Israel will be able to pose a real threat to the Iranian regime, and "in the absence of a way out, acceptable to both sides, the war could continue for a very long time."
Vered mentions the fact that the Iran-Iraq war, in the 1980s, lasted eight years. Iran fought many years to achieve its demands - to correct the basic wrong of Iraq's invasion into its territory, Iraqi recognition of its culpability, and the removal of the head of the Iraqi regime Saddam Hussein.
Iran paid an inconceivable price in that war - half a million dead and economic damage higher than the country's entire oil income in the 20th century - before it agreed to a ceasefire. The ceasefire came only when there was a real danger that the Iranian regime would not survive.
Vered writes that "one can't rule out with a high degree of certainty the possibility that a war will break out between Israel and Iran." Therefore, a careful assessment of the details of a possible war, and preparation for it, are essential. In his study, he fails to find anyone who could develop an effective method to shorten the time of a war.
He goes on to write that the fear of such a war should prompt Israel to prepare mentally, politically, and militarily, while creating ways to end it quickly, should it erupt. The assumption that the war will become prolonged should affect the way Israel prepares for it, as well it should affect the decision whether or not to attack Iranian facilities in the future.
Vered rejects the assumption that in the absence of a shared border, the Israel-Iran war will be fought only with surface to surface missiles. Such warfare shouldn't last a long time because Iran's supply of long-range missiles isn't large. However, he writes, it is more plausible to assume that Iran will want to continue the fighting against Israel via messengers: Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas, and maybe even an Iranian force on Syrian soil, as part of a defense treaty between Tehran and Damascus. He plays down the likelihood of a short confrontation (Israeli assault followed by a punishing counter assault and then an immediate ceasefire under international pressure while both sides realize that the war has played out), he thinks that the ideology of the Iranian regime will dictate a prolonged war. Yes, this isn't exactly what you would call relaxing reading material for the weekend."
Scott,
A million thanks on that. I knew it had to be true, since Arabiya TV's Najah Mohammed Ali is the summum of Iran correspondents.
Edward
Samuel
A gift for you; look at your brave fellows , only for "200$", !!!! shame on you
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1076152402969
Just wanted to let you know that I clicked on "Farsi language update on detainees" on Nov. 7th and it contained virus.
Samual
"(will the Americans provide Israel with an airspace corridor over Iran? "
I wouldn't get too excited about this journalists report. He seems to be a bit confused - see above. With a basic error like that in his article, just how good is the rest of his reporting??
Barry
Ladan,
Much appreciated. We will pull the link.
S.
Thanx Scott, for the list of detained journalists. Iran overtook China as the world's greatest prison for reporters. Nevertheless the situation in both countries is not comparable at all - not a single private publisher in Mao's homeland. ILNA's economic report of today is also a proof for some independently thinking journalists left over in Iran. And meanwhile even governmental literary prices are boycotted by more or less Iranian writers, as reported yesterday: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=8968
@ Nuclear deal on? I would be cautious.
Boroujerdi now opens a new front against Russia, warning that its delay in delivering S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Iran would harm relations between two countries: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_IRAN_RUSSIA?SITE=CAVEN&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Obviously a lot of bargaining is ahead.
Arshama,
I think the pro-deal forces in Ahmadinejad Government may be trying to out-manoeuvre Boroujerdi/Larijani (and Khamenei?) with the leak to Press TV of the possible new deal based on two-stage delivery of uranium to Russia.
S.
Some are saying that Karroubi criticizes the notion of dialogue w/ the US. That's not how I read it.
If Sharyar's translation is accurate, he's basically saying, "You can't negotiate with the Americans, THEN use days like 13 Aban to whip up anti-Americanism." One, it's hypocritical. But TWO, the point he makes at the end is that it's COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE. You make progress with the US, in other words, only to create enmity and mistrust with spectacles like the Gov.-sanctioned part of 13 Aban.
Samuel-Div,
Still a neo-con, big, bad, and bold...
...and far away from the battleground.
I have heard that the postponement of the President's speech was because he is about to be excluded from a new coalition government framework first suggested by a baker who was poisoned by moldy bread and who suggested the importation of higher quality flour, and then devised a compromise plan which is now under sporadic discussion. But sources have clarified the soft butter of the conundrum somewhat...
... And for this it sometimes pays to have unsavory friends. I have a friend who's been smuggling parrots in the saddlebags of donkeys into Azerbaijan from Iran for years. How he gets the parrots into Iran, I don't know. Lately, the parrots have been talking or maybe they have flash drives under their feathers. I'm not sure, but I don't ask. Anyway, his squawk is usually almost mostly reliable, and he tells be that a compromise grand restructuring of the government is underway to replace Ahmadinejad. The renowned cleric http://wp.me/oSaJ" rel="nofollow">Mullah Nasrudin has been tricked into serving as a transition figure. My friend smuggled to me this report and dialog:
Mullah Nasrudin was excited but conflicted when he spoke to his wife, "The Supreme Leader has announced there will be a special election, but...as the presidential election caused chaos, the new election is for King, but there's some special conditions..."
The Mullah's wife didn't wait to hear the conditions. "You'll make a fine King," she said.
"But the King is to serve for one year and then is expected to martyr himself in a foreign war."
The Mullah's wife said, "Maybe you should run. I've always liked your brother--he could help you."
"Only a fool would run for this office," Mullah Nasrudin said.
The Mullah's wife said, "Yes, of course, but that's why you could win. I'll make you a robe."
Mullah Nasrudin thought for a while and then said, "Yes, it's decided, I will be King."
The Mullah's wife was thoughtful, "You should write a will and I will marry your brother."
"That won't be necessary. I can be King and live a long life."
She said, "You consider one year a long life?"
"No," he said, "on my last day as King, I will make a speech at the U.N."
Confused, she asked, "How will that help?"
Mullah Nasrudin stood up in a Regal way and said, "I will abdicate and appoint the Supreme Leader as King."
"Will that work?" she asked.
"No," he said."but you'll love New York."
To Samuel
"Naqdi’s day"? Naqdi, a genius cetainly destined for posterity... ! His tactic : we beat defenseless women but we don't kill them. What a brain ! IRI is saved ! Long live Naqdi, the clever goon!