The Latest from Iran (30 November): Nuclear Distraction, Trashing the Greens?

1915 GMT: Quiet Engagement. News is just emerging of five British nationals who have been held by Iran since their yacht Sail Bahrain strayed into Iranian waters on Wednesday.

The significance behind the headline is that the story was kept quiet for five days. That indicates that Britain does not want the matter to escalate into confrontation and that Iran, for now, does not want to use the detention for political advantage.

NEW Iran: How Washington Views the Green Opposition — The Next Chapter
NEW Video: The Bahari Interview on CNN (Part 2)
Today’s Iran Non-Story: Some Guy Who Looked Like Ahmadinejad Protested in 1984
Video: The Mothers of Martyrs Protest (28 November)
Iran: The Routes of 16 Azar
The Latest from Iran (29 November): Iran’s Nuclear Bluff

1830 GMT: Just for the Nuclear Record. Iranian Foreign Manouchehr Mottaki used a press conference with the Russian Energy Minister (who confirmed Moscow's intention to complete the Bushehr nuclear plant by March 2010) to denounce the IAEA resolution:

We could not find any logical reason for the Board of Governors' decision. We cannot accept discrimination in international relations. Either there are rights or such rights do not exist. The age of discriminatory policies is over. This is the law of the jungle.

Nothing surprising here and no further indication as to Iran's next step.

1625 GMT: Mehdi Karoubi, in an interview on his website Tagheerwebsite (official website of Etemad-Melli party), responded to accusations from Kayhan newspaper:

I really did not want to point out the arrogance of these guys but when I saw that they repeatedly are talking about “conspiracy”, denying their role in the events after the election, and are influencing the Judiciary system, I decided to respond....My message to the management of Kayhan newspaper is that the our interpretation of Islam is different than yours.

1610 GMT: President Postponed. It appears that President Ahmadinejad's national broadcast (see 0715 GMT) has been postponed to Tuesday night.

1555 GMT: A Detainee Speaks. Amidst a slower afternoon, interesting revelations from Behzad Nabavi, the high-profile reform activist who has recently been given a six-year prison sentence. Nabavi is free on a 10-day release pending appeal: "They asked me the night before my release to sign a paper and agree not to engage in political activities or conduct interviews until the appeals court hearing; they told me not to meet or contact political parties and organizations, but I refused. When they couldn't close the deal with me they gave me [only] a 10-day break from prison [instead]."

Nabavi claimed that the former Tehran Prosecutor General, Saeed Mortazavi, was present for at least one of his interrogations. He also claims that his arrest warrant had been issued on 9 June, three days before the Presidential elections (and six days before the supposed basis for his "crime", presence at the mass demonstration on 15 June).

1255 GMT: Larijani Baffles (Part 2). I have a hunch --- and nothing more -- that Ali Larijani, with his statement on the nuclear programme this morning, is setting himself up as an alternative to President Ahmadinejad, both for elements in the Iranian establishment and for the "West".

But who is the target of this Larijani statement, keeping in mind the shaky translation of the Iranian Labour News Agency: "Commenting on the post-election events, the speaker remarked that the unjustified persistence of certain people on their own views would only benefit others"?

1220 GMT: Report that journalist Hengameh Shahidi has been sentenced to six years, three months, and one day in prison.

1204 GMT: Larijani Baffles. Press TV has summarised this morning's comments by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani:

I believe there is still room for diplomacy and it is useful for them [the "5+1 powers] to adopt a diplomatic option. That way Iran would be able to make progress within the framework of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) while they would also be certain that Iran activities are peaceful. But of course, if they choose to take a different path Iran would also adopt a different stance.

Here's what puzzles me: given Larijani's hostility to the diplomatic process pursued by the Ahmadinejad Government in recent months, criticising apparent Iranian concessions, why is he now embracing "room for diplomacy"? Why not celebrate the apparent demise of the Ahmadinejad strategy?

Suggestions welcomed.

1200 GMT: This is Interesting. Just over a week before the protests of 16 Azar, students from Amir Kabir University have met Mehdi Karroubi in his home.

1100 GMT: Ahmadinejad and Latin America. An EA reader points us to an intriguing discussion between Mohsen Milani, Aram Hessami and Babak Dad, "What is Ahmadinejad searching for in the USA's backyard?" The reader notes Dad's provocative speculation that one purpose of the President's recent tour of Latin America was to prepare a "safe haven" if one should be noted for him and his allies.

1020 GMT: Montazeri Criticises "lllegal" Violence. Lots of chatter this morning about a video of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri denouncing post-election violence by Basiji militia, betraying its mission “unite and mobilise everyone on the path to God not to the path of evil”.

There's more. Montazeri also implicitly attacks the Supreme Leader for his thanks to the Basiji for "defeating the enemy in the events after election”: “Isn’t it a misery that one [i.e., the Basiji] goes to hell (in afterlife) for the wellbeing of others in this world?!” (Summary of remarks on Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi)

0940 GMT: You Might Want to Be More Subtle. The head of Iran's nuclear organisation, Ali Akhbar Salehi, kind of gives the political game away today:

We had no plan to build many nuclear sites like Natanz [enrichment facility but it seems that the West do not want to comprehend Iran's message of peace. The West adopted an attitude toward Iran which made the Iranian government to pass the ratification on construction of ten sites.

Hmm....So you haven't make any previous moves to build beyond the enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordoo but now you've going to throw all your resources at a crash construction programme because of Friday's IAEA resolution?

Wouldn't back Salehi as a poker player: this is either clumsy deception --- Iran has already started on other sites --- or clumsy bluff.

0930 GMT: We've posted the second part of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari's interview with CNN. We've also been moved by his comments on the Green movement(s) to consider again how Washington may be viewing (and belittling) the opposition.

0810 GMT: Blackout. Fears are growing that, in addition to "containing" the protest of 16 Azar (7 December) through a 48-hour holiday just before it, the Government may try to pull the curtains down on it through a cutoff of Internet and mobile phone service.

0730 GMT: Sigh. The coverage of Iran this morning on the BBC's flagship radio programme? Declare "time is running out" for Tehran, then turn over seven minutes of airtime just after 7 a.m. to the Israeli Ambassador to the UK, Ron Prosor for comments such as: "Iranians are not just carpet makers but carpet weavers; they will divide one red line into 100 pink lines and then cross the red line"; "Israel's nuclear capability is irrelevant in the current situation"; "all options are on the table".

0720 GMT: Russia Mending Political/Nuclear Fences? Russian energy minister Sergei Shmatko, in Iran for talks with his Iranian counterpart and other officials, has pledged that Iran's first nuclear power station will soon be completely. Shmatko said earlier this month that the Bushehr plant would be delayed beyond its announced opening date of the end of 2009.

The political significance of Shmatko's statement overshadows the technical dimension: days after supporting the International Atomic Energy Agency resolution, Moscow is tacking back politically towards Iran. That means some continuing level of co-operation (though the Russians can always dangle and pull back support) and no sanctions.

0715 GMT: President Ahmadinejad will speak on national television this evening.

0645 GMT: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is now holding a press conference on Iranian television.

0630 GMT: Reality Check. Here are two reasons, courtesy of Gary Sick, why the Iran Government's nuclear announcement is "all mouth and no trousers".

The declaration of 10 enrichment plants is for 500,000 centrifuges. In the last nine years, Iran has constructed and installed fewer than 9000 centrifuges, of which only about half are operating. At that rate, the plans announced yesterday will be completed in the year 2509.

According to documents, construction began on the second enrichment site at Fordoo in 2003. There are still no centrifuges installed, and the site is due for completion in 2011.

At that rate, 10 enrichment plants would take 80 years to construct, if they were built one after another. If they were all pursued at the same time, it would put great strain on Iranian resources and manpower, to say the least. What's more, the proposed plants would be the same size as Iran's primary enrichment facility at Natanz, much larger than Fordoo.

0610 GMT: One week before the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December), but all the headlines are far away from the internal conflict in Iran. The Ahmadinejad Government's declaration of "10 new enrichment plants" has successfully walked the international media down a nuclear garden path, even though the proposal at this point is a fantasy. In addition to our coverage in yesterday's updates, we'll have further analysis laying out both the technical and political realities later this morning.

However, while Tehran's move is political symbolism, it reinforces the mood in the US that engagement is now a long-shot. A clear sign of that is in Trita Parsi's piece for The Huffington Post, "Washington Can Give An Israeli Attack On Iran The Red Light". That headline in itself is a hyperbolic diversion --- for reasons beyond the Obama Administration, Israel will not be launching military operations --- but it shows that Parsi, the President of the National Iranian American Council and a fervent supporter of a political settlement with Iran, has now all but given up on the process.

Iran: Where Now for the Green Wave(s)? A Discussion on (Non)-Violence

This analysis by Agh Bahman, via the blog of Pedestrian, complements our discussion this morning of the challenges and possibilities for the Green movement(s) as they move into the next phase of protest and politics, six months after the disputed Presidential election:

There’s only two weeks left to [the protests of] 16 Azar [7th of December] and some are expecting it to be like 13 Aban [4 November], if not like Quds Day [18 September]. At the same time, after 13 Aban, some conclude that the violence of security forces is really to provoke people towards violence too. And this will pave the way for more violence on the part of security.

Iran: Where Now for the Green Wave(s)? The EA Discussion

The harsher tone and actions of some demonstrators has worried some and certain political figures and activists have expressed their worries about the green movement becoming violent. (note I am not referring to some really funny or cool slogans, but the general demands of the movement).



I too am slightly worried about this. That is, I am worried about the movement getting more violent or its demands going beyond the “total implementation of the constitution” and the “full release of political prisoners”. I think this will reduce the universality of the movement. Not to mention that we must measure the strength of every movement in its demands. If the green movement can reach a full implementation of the constitution, it has done more than anyone can imagine (if you have some time, go and read the constitution, and note this also that [Mir Hossein] Mousavi and especially [Mehdi] Karoubi have stressed that they want to go back to the draft of the constitution written in 1979).

I’m going to bring in some analysis and statements released in the past few days about the need to abstain from violence on 16 Azar. Note that one of these was released by Tahkim Vahdat [Iranian student organisation], one of the most radical factions within Iran. Maybe they are truly worried that they are speaking out about this. You can read the full statements via the links I’ve put, here I only repost those parts which have to do with this discussion.

Statement by Tahkim Vahdat

Political activists are going through one of the most difficult times since the revolution. They no longer have minimum freedoms to hold even a small gathering. In this atmosphere we ask citizens to participate in upcoming demonstrations in the most peaceful manner and to shout slogans which keep the green movement within the frameworks of a peaceful movement and to keep from any radicalization, because the highest aim of this movement is to save Iran from the hands of those radicals which are willing to sacrifice all for the benefit of their own faction.

The Green Movement lives on because of its emphasis on peaceful protest, abiding the law, an emphasis on the constitution, and ethical behavior. Attributes which all go against the current dominant authority which sets up a tragedy like Kahrizak and blames one doctor for all the atrocities and through doing so only brings back the horrors of the student dormitories and a stolen plastic shaver [the only person charged with the assault on the student dormitories in 1999 was convicted of stealing a plastic shaver].

Statement by the Iran Freedom Movement

The state will have to pay a heavy price for using this much violence. It will want to continue this path. Thus, it will need to justify it. The authorities want to radicalize this movement. Experience has shown us that once citizens utilize violence, this only gives the state an excuse to use more of it.

Paramilitary forces infiltrate the ranks of protesters and try to provoke them to react violently. This is while militants always have the upper hand in violent combat because of the resources they have available to them. At the same time, the radicalization of this movement will only reduce its universality, and reduce the number of people willing to stand with it. Thus, a movement which allowed for all people, whether young or old, man or woman, family or individuals to participate in its gatherings might evolve into something that few will be willing to participate in.

The Freedom Movement of Iran believes that this movement will only triumph if it abides by peaceful, paths of reform. “Non-violence” is not only a temporary tactic. But rather, from the birth of this movement, it has been the main strategy.

Unfortunately, some opposition forces outside the country which do not have realistic views of the realities inside, willingly or unwillingly are provoking students to violence for 16 Azar. They are urging students to use the militia’s tactics on 13 Aban to “get revenge” on 16 Azar.

Iranian Labor News Agency's interview with Ezatollah Sahabi, head of the Freedom Movement

A movement which is not hierarchical has advantages and disadvantages. One advantage is that the movement can not be uprooted and can not be silenced because it has no particular leaders and is spread out strongly across society. At the same time, it can easily sway or go in different directions exactly because it has no particular leaders. But we must keep from radical, violent reactions.

On the Strategy of Flowers for Bullets, by Emad Bahavar [recently released from prison]

The state has yet to even acknowledge the existence of the green movement. When the head of the political wing of the Islamic Coalition Part was asked “how the country should exit this current crisis/situation” he replied: “there is no situation. The fact that chaos has reached a minimum shows that we are no longer in any situation.” Their analysis is based on an old calculation: historically, 20% of Tehran has been in disagreement with them, but has been sitting silently at home and has posed no particular to the state. The events following the elections has given this minority “hope” to create chaos and change the political system. This group will eventually go home when they discover that nothing has really changed.

There is no doubt that this analysis is wrong. Do they choose to ignore this reality or simply do not see it? … We can assess that the state has entered this equation based on a wrong analysis. This movement truly exists. This movement is not only on the surface but is rooted within society. Its demands are serious and not meeting them or even minding them will create serious obstacles and crises be it in the social, political or economic realms for the system. The persistence of these demands will only slowly eat away at the legitimacy of the system itself. But even while activists, professors and intellectuals warn of this, the state pays no heed. One reason for this lack of attention will always be that the state will claim these analyses are provided by “Western Humanities” and have nothing to do with our “Eastern, Islamic” culture. They claim that the very roots of legitimacy of the state are defined differently in the Islamic context.

The system will try its best to reduce this movement to a demonstration of a few thousand students alone. If the demonstrations get violent, the state will use “its legal permission to use legitimate violence”. Not to mention that if the movement itself grows violent, fewer individuals will be willing to join its ranks. This will only reduce the movement to a violent, chaotic effort that will soon be killed off completely by security forces. Some opposition forces outside the country, willingly or unwillingly are trying to make this happen. It is obvious that anti-establishment opposition forces outside the country did not start this movement, but they can certainly try to see it end.

On the part of the state, it has thus been decided that violence is preferred to any sort of negotiation or compromise. They are determined to shut down any “chaos” using force and security measures. To do this more broadly, they need a radicalized, violent demonstration. They are thus counting on a mass violent reaction for 13 Aban. 16 Azar is the best opportunity to use the anger of the students. The authorities will at the same time force the leaders of the movement to loudly break ranks with those who are willing to go too far and thus create one of the greatest cracks in the movement so far.

Iran: Where Now for the Green Wave(s)? The EA Discussion

Yesterday an EA reader sent me this thoughtful and challenging comment:

I would like to point out what seems to be an oversight/flaw in your general understanding of the Green movement. By all counts, the vast majority of Iranians who have been out on the streets and questioning the legitimacy of [President] Ahmadi[nejad] and his cohorts, have no sympathy for Mousavi and "his" Green movement.

Iran: Where Now for the Green Wave(s)? A Discussion on (Non)-Violence

They are more being driven by their own frustrations, hopelessness and overwhelming desire to bring change. It is not likely that in any open contest, if given the choice, the majority of Iranians would be in support of the continuation of the Iranian regime as an Islamic Republic with its flawed constitution--the main refrain of [Mir Hossein] Mousavi and [Mohammad] Khatami is that there is nothing wrong with the Islamic Revolution, it is simply the deviation from the path of [Imam] Khomeini that is a problem.

So by focusing on, for example, whether [Ataollah] Mohajerani, [Mohsen] Sazegara or [Mohsen] Makhmalbaf (all figures tainted in the minds of many Iranians for their support of the regime who have only come to the party because there friends are now out of power and they would like to change that, you are missing the point about the magnitude of anger with the regime and all of its supporters over the past 30 years.

The loss inflicted by the Islamic Republic on Iran and Iranians is unfathomable for non-Iranians. The movement in Iran (which is not Green) is a manifestation of 30 years of pain and represents a demand for fundamental change. It would be a huge shame if that change is ultimately represented by Mousavi, Sazegara, Makhbalbaf and their friends....

This was my immediate response:

If you read between the lines, I think you may see our evolving thought that those at the grassroots and prominent figures such as Mousavi should no longer be conflated (I agree fully that --- being on a learning curve here --- we have made that conflation). At the same time, I think our sense has been that there is a synergy of pressure brought by the different aspects, i.e., if a Karroubi or Mousavi made a public move, that might energise the mass movement (and, conversely, that protest such as that on 30 July or Qods Days could bolster the challenge of those figures).

What recent weeks have raised, I think, is the question of whether the challenge still rests on that synergy, as I sense a disillusionment with Mousavi's inability to be visible on occasions such as 13 Aban and his recent manoeuvres and with Khatami's rather vague comments, accompanied by Karroubi's growing caution. How does the mass movement organise itself to maintain a lasting challenge?

My thought --- strictly as an outsider, I have to add --- is that your comment does not necessarily lead to a separation of the grassroots from the political figures. Another EA reader just posted, "The Iranian people were still shouting [their] names during their protests." I do wonder now, however, if waiting for leadership --- given not only specific issues about the figures you mention but the wider political environment in Iran --- means Waiting for Godot.

So, as the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December) approach but, more importantly, as the movement passes that marker and six months of resistance, I wonder again, "How now to organise?"

An hour after I drafted this response, another contributing twist: Agh Bahman, via Pedestrian's blog, has put together the thoughts of activists about the strategy for 16 Azar. The immediate concern of "Flowers for Bullets", the strategy advocated by recently-released detainee Emad Bahavar: how to maintain a peaceful and effective Green protest?

We've posted those thoughts in a separate entry.

Iran: Text of Mousavi Statement to Basiji (25 November)

Translation by Khordaad 88:

In the name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful

5th of Azar (26 November) is the anniversary of creation of "Basij of the Poor" by Imam Khomeini. This anniversary is an opportunity to have a second look at this influential institution in the history of the Islamic revolution: What was the Basij? What is it now? and what should it be? What force created the Basij, and gave it a name and recognition? What made it a hero of all the different tastes and inclinations [of different classes] in a period of the modern history of this land?

The Latest from Iran (26 November): Corridors of Conflict

That glorious history and great success known as Basij was not achieved through extensive budgets, and expensive weapons. It was not excellent institutionalized organization techniques that made the Basij as glorious as a tale of magnificent proportions. It was not military power that formed Basij. Instead, it was deep and pure intentions that created this high tower and nurtured role models whose names are remembered as if they were loyal friends of the prophet.

In addition, in the history of the revolution, Basij is the symbol and centerpiece of courage and persistence of our nation. Thirty years ago, Imam created "Basij of the Poor" to stand against probable military assault of superpowers. This act was the most influential step taken to prevent any such attacks. In the past three three decades, powers great and small carried the most destructive of weapons. The only thing that stopped them from assaulting our soil or made them regret their assault was that they had seen the courage of the people who were not afraid of the strength of the powerful. They had seen people who did not stop at anything to defend their rights and ideals. Basij was a window through which this aspect of our nation was displayed.

Basij was a manifestation of the union of [social] layers and different appetites among our people. When our caring father [Imam Khomeini] was planting this tree, he said: “A country that has 20 million youth, must have 20 million Basij members.” How could have this been achieved if Basij belonged to only one mode of thinking, one group or one class? What he meant by the 20 million army was the color and capacity that could represent if not all, at least a big majority of the colors that exist in our society; something like the flags of prince of martyrs, [third Imam of Shiite] that is yearly raised everywhere throughout our country, and all of our social layers even some of the religious minorities gather around it.

If Basij has turned into one of our nation’s greatest achievements, it was because of attention to such secrets. Otherwise, a name [Basij] can not by itself achieve such almost artistic relics of greatness: The art of changing normal people to an army who relies on God, the art of resisting and winning [the war] empty handed and the art of becoming the source and axis for the union and for the pride of a nation.
Today too, it’s the same story. It is not orders of labels and symbols, words and appearances, neither is it types of discourse and accents nor sentences or magic that creates such schools [Basij or purposeful togetherness] of love, and great humans. All the Basijis, whether known or nameless, who are the pride of faith and land, did not become heroes because of their words. They were tested. Of course, there is not one person in this world who is not tested with choosing right from wrong.

“Do men think that they will be left alone on saying, ‘We believe’, and that they will not be tested?"

“We did test those before them, and Allah will certainly know those who are true from those who are false”

The time has reached for the inheritors of Bagheris and Bakeris [high-ranking Revolutionary Guard military commanders killed in the Iraq-Iran War]. A new generation who are called Basijis and are in the middle of the darkest suspicions and upheaval. Is this new generation similar to those who have fought along The Commander of Faithful in the Battle of Camel [a battle that took place at Basra, Iraq in 656 between forces allied to Ali ibn Abi Talib (First Imam of Shi’ites and the Commander of the Faithful) and forces allied to Aisha (widow of Prophet Muhammad )]? Or are such similarities pointless because those who make them want Basij to be an oppressive machine to hit, capture, hurt and even kill the human beings whom their only sin is asking for justice?

Who knows the answer to such questions? What is the real identity of the institution which is currently called “Basij (Mobilization) of the Oppressed”? Is this an erratic institution that closes its eyes and breaks the arms and legs of its brothers and sisters when they are ordered to do so? Or is it an institution with the deepest insight that can distinguish the right way from wrong way in the darkest nights of upheaval. The night of upheaval is like a days for those who have doubts in their answers to these questions.

“Whenever you are faced with Fitna (Upheavals) like parts of a dark night, Quran is yours [to get refuge and find your way]”.

Hear the response of the Prophet (Peace be upon him) to all these doubts that when upheavals gets into you like parts of a dark night you have to look through Quran! Quran is an intercessor that its intercession is always accepted, and if it becomes a witness against anyone its testimony is accepted. A book that will lead to paradise anyone who considers it as a leader and will drive to hell anyone who goes against it. A book that guides to the best of ways. Quran is a book that clearly and explicitly orders us to be with the truthful.

“O you who believe, fear Allah and be with the truthful”

However, if the truthful were known, the night of upheaval would have ended. On the other hand it is clear that the truthful never lies. Those who lie in their most important political campaign are certainly not truthful. God-consciousness is not their companion and faith is not compatible with them. Haven’t you heard lies in the past months?

“O you who believe, fear Allah and be with the truthful”

What was the Basji, what will be, and what is to be done?

The Basji that the Imam wanted would not stand against the nation, but would stand behind them and with them. A Basji whose actions would go beyond political factions and its broad shoulders would protect all, a Basji that would enjoy the friendship of the people, a Basji that would be seeking people’s friendship and unity. A Basji that would overlook the differences of opinion and protect the life and liberty of the masses, that would see them all as brothers or one in creation. A Basji that would protect the privacy of people. Imam did not want the Basji as a tool of authority, but a place for people to project their own power, a place that would allow them to have a part in their own future. It was supposed to be that the actions and behavior of the Basji would be an example to the people, not to have the power of the Basji crush the people. The Basji was not supposed to be on the government payroll and was not supposed to receive bonuses for arresting people for participating in demonstrations. It is a sad day if the Basji becomes just another political party. This is not what the Imam wanted for the Basjiis. The Basji was not supposed to be an instrument to take away people’s freedom in their votes.

My Basjii brothers! What where the faults or flaws in Imam [Khomeini]’s aspirations for Basij that you have abandoned them? Why should you ruin the image created based on the efforts of those before you? You are from the people and with the people. Why do the concepts that our people favour based on their nature, cause such hatred among our Basiji friends? What is bad about freedom? Why talking about freedom causes so much disgust in the heart of some our Basiji friends as if freedom is a unforgivable sin? We know that many of our cities’ major crossroads are called freedom. Don’t we say that subjects like human rights, women rights, minorities rights, and as such are exploited by great powers to hypocritically associate themselves with these concepts and demonstrate a good face?

So why should those, who are the main and noble owners of such values and ideals, distance themselves from them? Do they want their school of thought to look detestable? Why do you ban these concepts and consider them as criteria for being non-religious? Religion is like a favourite flower bestowed upon people. Its teachings are moderate and in agreement with people ‘s nature. Don’t turn it in to a torn bush, that everyone who touches it gets harmed, like what our youth experience [nowadays] in the streets.

Thirty years ago Basij came to existence just like a flower and a blast of light. If one desires to return to that luminous original era, does that mean he has turned his back on the [Islamic] Revolution and intends to turn over the system? Isn’t it a call to justice if one requests to return to the original version of Islamic revolution? If one demands the pure Islam of Mohammad, the one that Imam [Khomeini] was its mouthpiece and referral; if one expresses distaste toward superstitious and superficiality, which is sold to people in the name of religion; if one follows all the articles of the constitution; if one asks for the loyalty to the vows made based on belief and humanity? Is it legitimate to smack such people in the streets, to torture them in the jails, to sentence them to long terms in prison? Do Islam and Koran teachings allow killing of the people who peacefully ask their rulers to be just?

“And they kill the people who asked them to be just. So warn them of a severe punishment."

What was [the essence of] Basij before and what will it turn into if it continues on the road laid for it? The force that once represented the courage of our nation is now used to terrorize Iranians? It is evident that the newest and the latest strategy adopted by the authoritarian minority is to create fear in people. They wear terrifying apparel and gather in military formations in the city streets to frighten their countrymen? They terrorize people because they themselves are terrified? Or they convict the sons of this revolution to 7 , 10 and 15 years in prison to console themselves? And they don’t realize how they are jeopardizing the national security with these short-sighted behaviors?

It is sufficient for great powers to see [our] people frightened to harass our nation. To see our people’s courage undermined and their strength and their endurance uncertain to believe their dreams of the last 30 years [against our nation] are coming true. Look at our two neighboring countries that are occupied by foreign forces. In both countries they attempted to terrify people and people were terrified. On the surface the [great] powers stepped into these countries with the promise to set them free. But they did not hide their greed in [seeing] horrified faces of people when they established places like Abu Ghraib. They told people of these two countries with outmost clarity that you are the people who were scared of Saddam and Taliban; now it is justified to be more scared of our terrorizing weaponry. Even the radical terrorists still savagely kill these people hoping they can rule them based on their fear as the bloodthirsty [dictators] did before them . The victims of the brutalities of Saddam and Taliban are still paying for their lack of courage. But our nation owes its security and peace to courage and strength shown in the last thirty years.

Now some people in the country want to take this [social] capital away from us. [Our] people are either not frightened by their displays --- which they are not and they will take away this last weapon away from them --- or they will be scared. In that case will these war toys keep this country intact?

In our contemporary history Basij was not just a name , it was a conduct that we will always need. [This is true] to the extent that if those responsible for Basij forget their duties and assignments we need to carry them out ourselves. It is a necessity, even more important than the goals of our movement , that forces us not to let anyone show greed in our fear.

And we should know, there is no color beyond black. [Creating] fear is their last effort. Your opponents made a mistake and used what they had as the last resort against your peaceful strength. The true solutions to their [quandaries] are yourselves. The day you ask your opponents: “are the colorful flags you carry in the support of implementing the full constitution?” and they answered yes, welcome them. That day we will all be Green.

Mir Hossein Mousavi

The Latest from Iran (26 November): Corridors of Conflict

2110 GMT: The White House has put out the following statement:

The United States is deeply concerned about reports of additional charges facing Kian Tajbakhsh (see 1200 GMT), an Iranian-American scholar who has been detained in Iran without access to an independent lawyer since July 9, 2009. The charges against Mr. Tajbakhsh are baseless, and his original sentence on October 20 was an outrage. The Iranian government cannot earn the respect of the international community when it violates universal rights, and continues to imprison innocent people. We call on the Islamic Republic of Iran to release Mr. Tajbakhsh, and to respect the human rights of those within its borders.

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The Latest from Iran (25 November): Larijani Talks Tough

1945 GMT: Seizing the Peace Prize. EA readers have now picked up on the incident, building since yesterday, that Iranian authorities have seized the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to lawyer and rights activist Shirin Ebadi.

The possibility of seizure has been around for months, as the Iranian Government claimed that the award was taxable. (Ebadi maintains that prizes are explicitly excluded from taxation under Iranian fiscal law.) What seems to have elevated the story is the manner of the seizure, with the taking of the medal and prize diploma from a safe-deposit box.

The immediate diplomatic effect seems to have the provocation of Norwegian anger and a promise to elevate the human rights issue.. The Iranian charge d'affaires in Oslo was summoned to a meeting Wednesday with Norwegian State Secretary Gry Larsen. Foreign Minister Store stated, "During the meeting with the Iranian chargé d’affaires, we made it clear that Norway will continue to engage in international efforts to protect human-rights defenders and will follow the situation in Iran closely."

1720 GMT: The Big Push. The Turkish effort to get some movement from Iran on the nuclear issue (see 1600 GMT) accompanies "encouragement" by Moscow:

Russia urged Iran to cooperate with the international community as the United Nations’ atomic agency warned it had hit a “dead end” over whether the Islamic republic is developing a nuclear weapon. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov discussed the nuclear issue in Moscow with Ambassador Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi at the Iranian diplomat’s request, the Foreign Ministry said on its Web site today: “The Russian side especially underscored the necessity to observe the agreements in principle reached in talks in Geneva."

1620 GMT: The Islamic Republic News Agency is reporting that Mir Hossein Mousavi's brother-in-law Shapour Kazemi, freed earlier today (see 1320 GMT), has received a one-year prison sentence and is free on bail while the verdict is appealed.

Leading reformist Behzad Nabavi, still seriously ill, has been sentenced to six years.

1600 GMT: The Turkish Mediation. It's not looking good in Vienna, but Turkey is still trying to get an enrichment deal:

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu [had] phone conversations with foreign ministers of several countries over Iran's nuclear program. Davutoglu spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, diplomats said on Thursday

1530 GMT: And From the Other Side. While Mohammad El Baradei's statement is being headlined by "Western" media as proof that Iran should be cast into the darkness, here's the take from Press TV: "El Baradei: No diversion in Iran nuclear program". Unfortunately for Iran's state media, there's nothing --- nothing --- to support that declaration, and Press has to quote the opposing accounts: "There has been no movement on remaining issues of concern which need to be clarified for the agency to verify the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program."

1405 GMT: The non-Iranian media are all over the purported statement of Mohammad El Baradei at this morning's International Atomic Energy Agency meeting, stating that examination of Iran's nuclear programme is at a "dead end" because of non-cooperation from Tehran and that he is disappointed at the Iranian modification of his proposal for third-party enrichment of uranium.

To be honest, I'm being very careful with this. El Baradei's statement came out quickly --- very quickly --- from the meeting, which makes me think that certain diplomats are anxious to get his negative views across the Internet and into newspapers and broadcasts. I still think, pending further developments from Vienna, that the best measure of the IAEA head's current analysis is his interview with Reuters yesterday.

1330 GMT: We've posted the BBC version of the documentary on the death of Neda Agha Soltan.

1320 GMT: Shapour Kazemi, the brother of Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard, has been released on bail after more than five months in detention.

1200 GMT: Tajbakhsh the Pawn? As part of the tough front being taken this week against the US --- yesterday's speech by the Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad's posturing, the threats of the Revolutionary Guard --- the Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh has been brought back into Revolutionary Court on new charges of "spying for the George Soros foundation", the Open Society Institute. Tajbakhsh is also accused of sending e-mails to the Gulf 2000 network (a discussion list which includes two EA correspondents as members).

Tajbakhsh is being held in Evin Prison in solitary confinement.

1115 GMT: Tehran's Tough Talk on Nukes. As International Atomic Energy Agency delegates consider a resolution on Iran's nuclear programme, the Iranian ambassador, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, has issued a pre-emptive warning. Iran will respond to any condemnation by reducing co-operation "to the minimum we are legally obliged".

Translated, that's a threat to break off the talks on enrichment, as the resolution will "damage the currently constructive atmosphere" and "have long-term consequences".

1020 GMT: We've just posted an analysis, based on signals in the US media over the last 48 hours, "Has 'Green Reform' Disappeared in Washington?"

0950 GMT: Fighting the Menace Within. Another sign of the regime's disquiet. The Deputy Minister of Intelligence and former commander of the Basiji militia, Hossein Taeb, has launched another attack on Hashemi Rafsanjani through Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi.

Taeb told a Basiji seminar:

We found an espionage gang in 1992 and 1995 that met in a luxury house in Tehran and trained prostitutes for state officials as a way to corrupt them. One of the ring leaders was Mehdi Hashemi, Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani’s son who was immediately arrested. But following influence peddling by his father, some intelligence officials were transferred to other departments and Mehdi and his gang were set free.

Girls and women prostitutes that worked in that ring were active in Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s presidential election campaign headquarters. The plan of the reformists was that Mousavi would become president while Khatami would become leader and so the regime would collapse.

Taeb advocated arrest of the leaders of the reform movement saying that "there would be no consequences in the country" if they were detained.

0945 GMT: More than 40 students at Khaje Nasir University, the site of ongoing protests before, on, and since 13 Aban (4 November), have been targeted for possible disciplinary action; ten have been summoned to hearings on a variety of charges.

0915 GMT: Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader is asserting his authority with his own global tour, albeit through a statement rather than international jet-setting. His office has just put out the lengthy summary of a message to Iranian pilgrims on the Hajj to Mecca:

Palestine is under the evil dominion of Zionism in increasing suffering and starvation; Al-Aqsa Mosque is in great and serious danger. Oppressed people of Gaza are still in hardest condition after that unexampled genocide. Under the brogan of occupiers, Afghanistan is stricken by a new tragedy every single day. Insecurity in Iraq has deprived people of peace and comfort. Fratricide in Yemen has created a new tragedy in the heart of an Islamic nation.

Muslims think about recent years of devilry and wars, explosion and terrors in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, and where they have been designed. Why did these nations not witness tragedy before Western armies entered and dominated the region?

And so on until Ayatollah Khamenei gets to the political heart of his message: "Enemies have been defeated in Islamic Iran. Thirty years of tricks and concpiracy such as coups, war, sanctions, propaganda, and, most recently, [their] pompous [intervention in the] election were the scene of their defeat."

0900 GMT: A later start this morning, as we catch up with the news and post an analysis --- based on discussions over the last 24 hours --- of problems facing the Green movement and the regime, as well as the difficulties for US foreign policy.

On the surface, of course, President Ahmadinejad will say all is well. He continued his I'm a World Leader, Get Me Out of Tehran tour on Wednesday with the refuge of discussions in Venezuela. President Hugo Chavez gave warm support, agreements were signed, and Ahmadinejad struck a defiant pose: "Today the people of Venezuela and Iran, friends and brothers in the trench warfare against imperialism, are resisting....[We will] stand together until the end."

However, if Ahmadinejad is using the trip to claim leadership, his absence from Tehran is ample opportunity for others to challenge that authority. The reformist Rooz Online gleefully documents more evidence, in state media as well as private media, of "whispers" in Parliament against the President. The questions so prominently raised last week over not only the Government's economic programme but also mismanagement and corruption are not dissipating; to the contrary, the lack of apparent answers is fuelling more grumbling and discontent.