The Latest from Iran (30 November): Nuclear Distraction, Trashing the Greens?

1915 GMT: Quiet Engagement. News is just emerging of five British nationals who have been held by Iran since their yacht Sail Bahrain strayed into Iranian waters on Wednesday.

The significance behind the headline is that the story was kept quiet for five days. That indicates that Britain does not want the matter to escalate into confrontation and that Iran, for now, does not want to use the detention for political advantage.

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The Latest from Iran (29 November): Iran’s Nuclear Bluff

1830 GMT: Just for the Nuclear Record. Iranian Foreign Manouchehr Mottaki used a press conference with the Russian Energy Minister (who confirmed Moscow's intention to complete the Bushehr nuclear plant by March 2010) to denounce the IAEA resolution:

We could not find any logical reason for the Board of Governors' decision. We cannot accept discrimination in international relations. Either there are rights or such rights do not exist. The age of discriminatory policies is over. This is the law of the jungle.

Nothing surprising here and no further indication as to Iran's next step.

1625 GMT: Mehdi Karoubi, in an interview on his website Tagheerwebsite (official website of Etemad-Melli party), responded to accusations from Kayhan newspaper:

I really did not want to point out the arrogance of these guys but when I saw that they repeatedly are talking about “conspiracy”, denying their role in the events after the election, and are influencing the Judiciary system, I decided to respond....My message to the management of Kayhan newspaper is that the our interpretation of Islam is different than yours.

1610 GMT: President Postponed. It appears that President Ahmadinejad's national broadcast (see 0715 GMT) has been postponed to Tuesday night.

1555 GMT: A Detainee Speaks. Amidst a slower afternoon, interesting revelations from Behzad Nabavi, the high-profile reform activist who has recently been given a six-year prison sentence. Nabavi is free on a 10-day release pending appeal: "They asked me the night before my release to sign a paper and agree not to engage in political activities or conduct interviews until the appeals court hearing; they told me not to meet or contact political parties and organizations, but I refused. When they couldn't close the deal with me they gave me [only] a 10-day break from prison [instead]."

Nabavi claimed that the former Tehran Prosecutor General, Saeed Mortazavi, was present for at least one of his interrogations. He also claims that his arrest warrant had been issued on 9 June, three days before the Presidential elections (and six days before the supposed basis for his "crime", presence at the mass demonstration on 15 June).

1255 GMT: Larijani Baffles (Part 2). I have a hunch --- and nothing more -- that Ali Larijani, with his statement on the nuclear programme this morning, is setting himself up as an alternative to President Ahmadinejad, both for elements in the Iranian establishment and for the "West".

But who is the target of this Larijani statement, keeping in mind the shaky translation of the Iranian Labour News Agency: "Commenting on the post-election events, the speaker remarked that the unjustified persistence of certain people on their own views would only benefit others"?

1220 GMT: Report that journalist Hengameh Shahidi has been sentenced to six years, three months, and one day in prison.

1204 GMT: Larijani Baffles. Press TV has summarised this morning's comments by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani:

I believe there is still room for diplomacy and it is useful for them [the "5+1 powers] to adopt a diplomatic option. That way Iran would be able to make progress within the framework of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) while they would also be certain that Iran activities are peaceful. But of course, if they choose to take a different path Iran would also adopt a different stance.

Here's what puzzles me: given Larijani's hostility to the diplomatic process pursued by the Ahmadinejad Government in recent months, criticising apparent Iranian concessions, why is he now embracing "room for diplomacy"? Why not celebrate the apparent demise of the Ahmadinejad strategy?

Suggestions welcomed.

1200 GMT: This is Interesting. Just over a week before the protests of 16 Azar, students from Amir Kabir University have met Mehdi Karroubi in his home.

1100 GMT: Ahmadinejad and Latin America. An EA reader points us to an intriguing discussion between Mohsen Milani, Aram Hessami and Babak Dad, "What is Ahmadinejad searching for in the USA's backyard?" The reader notes Dad's provocative speculation that one purpose of the President's recent tour of Latin America was to prepare a "safe haven" if one should be noted for him and his allies.

1020 GMT: Montazeri Criticises "lllegal" Violence. Lots of chatter this morning about a video of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri denouncing post-election violence by Basiji militia, betraying its mission “unite and mobilise everyone on the path to God not to the path of evil”.

There's more. Montazeri also implicitly attacks the Supreme Leader for his thanks to the Basiji for "defeating the enemy in the events after election”: “Isn’t it a misery that one [i.e., the Basiji] goes to hell (in afterlife) for the wellbeing of others in this world?!” (Summary of remarks on Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi)

0940 GMT: You Might Want to Be More Subtle. The head of Iran's nuclear organisation, Ali Akhbar Salehi, kind of gives the political game away today:

We had no plan to build many nuclear sites like Natanz [enrichment facility but it seems that the West do not want to comprehend Iran's message of peace. The West adopted an attitude toward Iran which made the Iranian government to pass the ratification on construction of ten sites.

Hmm....So you haven't make any previous moves to build beyond the enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordoo but now you've going to throw all your resources at a crash construction programme because of Friday's IAEA resolution?

Wouldn't back Salehi as a poker player: this is either clumsy deception --- Iran has already started on other sites --- or clumsy bluff.

0930 GMT: We've posted the second part of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari's interview with CNN. We've also been moved by his comments on the Green movement(s) to consider again how Washington may be viewing (and belittling) the opposition.

0810 GMT: Blackout. Fears are growing that, in addition to "containing" the protest of 16 Azar (7 December) through a 48-hour holiday just before it, the Government may try to pull the curtains down on it through a cutoff of Internet and mobile phone service.

0730 GMT: Sigh. The coverage of Iran this morning on the BBC's flagship radio programme? Declare "time is running out" for Tehran, then turn over seven minutes of airtime just after 7 a.m. to the Israeli Ambassador to the UK, Ron Prosor for comments such as: "Iranians are not just carpet makers but carpet weavers; they will divide one red line into 100 pink lines and then cross the red line"; "Israel's nuclear capability is irrelevant in the current situation"; "all options are on the table".

0720 GMT: Russia Mending Political/Nuclear Fences? Russian energy minister Sergei Shmatko, in Iran for talks with his Iranian counterpart and other officials, has pledged that Iran's first nuclear power station will soon be completely. Shmatko said earlier this month that the Bushehr plant would be delayed beyond its announced opening date of the end of 2009.

The political significance of Shmatko's statement overshadows the technical dimension: days after supporting the International Atomic Energy Agency resolution, Moscow is tacking back politically towards Iran. That means some continuing level of co-operation (though the Russians can always dangle and pull back support) and no sanctions.

0715 GMT: President Ahmadinejad will speak on national television this evening.

0645 GMT: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is now holding a press conference on Iranian television.

0630 GMT: Reality Check. Here are two reasons, courtesy of Gary Sick, why the Iran Government's nuclear announcement is "all mouth and no trousers".

The declaration of 10 enrichment plants is for 500,000 centrifuges. In the last nine years, Iran has constructed and installed fewer than 9000 centrifuges, of which only about half are operating. At that rate, the plans announced yesterday will be completed in the year 2509.

According to documents, construction began on the second enrichment site at Fordoo in 2003. There are still no centrifuges installed, and the site is due for completion in 2011.

At that rate, 10 enrichment plants would take 80 years to construct, if they were built one after another. If they were all pursued at the same time, it would put great strain on Iranian resources and manpower, to say the least. What's more, the proposed plants would be the same size as Iran's primary enrichment facility at Natanz, much larger than Fordoo.

0610 GMT: One week before the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December), but all the headlines are far away from the internal conflict in Iran. The Ahmadinejad Government's declaration of "10 new enrichment plants" has successfully walked the international media down a nuclear garden path, even though the proposal at this point is a fantasy. In addition to our coverage in yesterday's updates, we'll have further analysis laying out both the technical and political realities later this morning.

However, while Tehran's move is political symbolism, it reinforces the mood in the US that engagement is now a long-shot. A clear sign of that is in Trita Parsi's piece for The Huffington Post, "Washington Can Give An Israeli Attack On Iran The Red Light". That headline in itself is a hyperbolic diversion --- for reasons beyond the Obama Administration, Israel will not be launching military operations --- but it shows that Parsi, the President of the National Iranian American Council and a fervent supporter of a political settlement with Iran, has now all but given up on the process.

The Latest from Iran (5 November): Riding the Wave

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Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 2nd Set)
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Text: President Obama’s Statement on Iran (4 November)
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The Latest from Iran (4 November — 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

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2135 GMT: For What It's Worth. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has stated sharply, possibly in response to Mohammad El Baradei's revelation that the International Atomic Energy Agency is looking for a compromise for the Vienna third-party enrichment agreement, "This is a pivotal moment for Iran. We urge Iran to accept the agreement as proposed and we will not alter it and we will not wait forever."

Whether the US Government holds this line, effectively suspending engagement, remains to be seen. It should be noted, however, that the "late October" window for the meeting of the 5+1 powers with Iran to seal a deal --- originally projected at the start of October when direct discussions between the US and Iran resumed in Geneva --- has come and gone.

1900 GMT: Shutting Away Journalists. Reporters Without Borders writes, “At least 100 journalists and cyber-dissidents have been arrested" in Iran since 12 June "and 23 of them are still being held. More than 50 journalists have left the country and those who have stayed are subject to constant harassment.”

The organization notes that, in addition to the arrest of Agence France Press correspondent Farhad Pouladi (see 1045 GMT), Nafiseh Zareh Kohan, a journalist who writes for various pro-reform newspapers, and blogger and human rights activist Hassin Assadi Zidabadi were arrested yesterday.

1850 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. It looks like Iran will get the all-clear on the second uranium enrichment plant near Qom, which caused such a fuss when it was "outed" by Western countries in September after Tehran notified the International Atomic Energy Agency.

IAEA head Mohammad El Baradei said inspectors found "nothing to be worried about" in their visit in late October. "The idea was to use it as a bunker under the mountain to protect things," in contrast to the open-air enrichment plant at Natanz, El-Baradei said. "It's a hole in a mountain."

El Baradei also said he was examining possible compromises to resolve the draft Vienna agreement on third-party enrichment, which Tehran balked at signing.

1830 GMT: Pedestrian, who often drops in on the EA comment section, offers an overview of 13 Aban and ponders, "What Now?":

Mousavi keeps referring to “social networks” and “communities”. The trick with that is that it makes individuals much more vulnerable. If people were to begin organizing events in their own community, they would be giving away their privacy: their address and their name could be identified. Any antagonist in the neighborhood could easily blow up their efforts. Before the revolution, people met in mosques. Each neighborhood has a mosque. Now, at least from rumors we hear, people might have even been held up in mosques. Whether these rumors are true or not, mosques are no longer an alternative (and amen to that!).

Be it in schools, in neighborhoods, at work - it seems to me as if smaller group activity may be a better alternative from now on.

1645 GMT: Catching Up. We've finally had a moment to post the English translation of a written interview with Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, on the eve of 13 Aban, on the 1979 US Embassy takeover, Iran's relations with the US, Russia, and China, and the state of the Iranian Government.

We're also posting the best of a steady stream of videos coming into us.

1545 GMT: A Crisis for Khamenei? Chris Emery, responding to this morning's analysis by Mr Smith, asserts that 13 Aban was "a major blow to Khamenei's authority". (We also have Mr Smith's reply.)

1345 GMT: Radio Zamaneh reports that families of those detained yesterday have clashed with security forces in front of the Vozara detention centre. It is also reported that the families blocked a bus taking detainees from Vozara to Evin Prison.

1340 GMT: The Regime Strategy. I think the response to 13 Aban may now becoming evident. While there is uncertainty over President Ahmadinejad's speech (some outlets quote Fars News as saying it will be on Saturday) and the general political response, the Government persists in trying to break the Green movement through arrests. A reliable Iranian source is passing on steady information about the detentions of student activists.

1330 GMT: Yes, State Media Setback. A follow-up to our 0745 entry: Press TV is now posting about a demand from Al-Alam, Iran's state Arab-language satellite channel, for an explanation from its Saudi hosts as to why it was taken off the air.

1300 GMT: Not So Weak. In a sign that the regime will press ahead with a heavy hand to deter opposition, it has been announced that Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, will appear in Revolutionary Court on Sunday. This follows yesterday's hearing for two other post-election detainees, former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and journalist Hengameh Shahidi.

1050 GMT: Weak. What is striking about the "official" reaction to the 13 Aban protests is its relative lack of strength. Because they are not acknowledging and indeed featuring the opposition, as Press TV has, other outlets seem to be stumbling in their attempt to wish away the protest.

Fars News is no longer playing up its hostile recognition of the marches, blaming Hashemi Rafsanjani's son for leading 50-100 "goons" (and explaining that Mehdi Karroubi arrived at an empty 7 Tir Square after the goons were shooed away by Iranian security forces). Instead, it features an interview a member of the Confederate Party of Islamic Clergy who praises youth for being ready to stand against the arrogance of internal and external enemies. The strategy of the Islamic Republic News Agency is to focus on President Ahmadinejad's hosting of the Emir of Qatar.

Of course, this could all change with a forceful speech by President Ahmadinejad. For now, however, Is sense uncertainty.

1045 GMT: An Iranian reporter working for Agence France Presse was arrested during yesterday's demonstrations. The whereabouts of Farhad Poulardi are unknown.

0845 GMT: How the Green Wave Swept Over Press TV.

This was the opening of the state media's English-language report on its website at 1115 GMT, "Iranians mark US embassy takeover":

Rallies marking the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover in Tehran have started in capital Tehran as well as other cities across the country.

Tens of thousands of people from all walks of life and many political persuasions have staged a rally at the site of the former US embassy in Tehran, better known in Iranian history as the 'Den of Spies'.

But this was overtaken by the opening of the report posted at 1930 GMT, "Opposed rallies on US Embassy takeover anniversary":

Thousands of supporters of defeated presidential candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, have held a rally in the Iranian capital as the country commemorated the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover.

The main anti-government rally took place at a central square in Tehran on Wednesday, November 4, our correspondent Leila Faramarzi reported.

It was only in the 5th paragraph that the article noted, "Tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to commemorate the day, dubbed as the national day of fighting global arrogance."

0745 GMT: State Media Setback? Egypt's Middle East News Agency reports that Iran's Arabic-language satellite TV channel, Al-Alam, has been taken off the air by two Arab-controlled satellite companies.

The official explanation form Nilesat and Arabsat is "breach of contract", but there according to Egypt's MENA news agency, but there is speculation that Arab governments want to curb the reach and influence of the channel.

0740 GMT: Complementing our correspondent Mr Azadi's eyewitness report, the Green Freedom Wave has also posted a detailed summary of events throughout Iran yesterday.

0725 GMT: We start this morning with an apology. 13 Aban was notable not just for the events in Iran, but for the birthday of the daughter of one of our correspondents. In the flurry of events, we forgot to offer our best wishes.

Our correspondent noted, "I used to be happy she was born on 13 Aban because it marked my defiance of the Americans. Now I am happy because it coincides with another movement." But will there be celebrations today as well? We've posted an analysis by Mr Smith and a first-hand account from the streets of Iran. We're hoping another analysis will follow this morning, and we'll posting more videos that have emerged.

At the moment the biggest buzz, at least for CNN, is that President Ahmadinejad will be giving a televised speech. No clues yet as to content. Unsurprisingly, no sign either of the opposition's next move, as breath is caught after yesterday's emerging if partial triumph.

Iran's New 13 Aban: "The Green Wave Has Bounced Back"

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Text: President Obama’s Statement on Iran (4 November)
Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
The Latest from Iran (4 November — 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

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UPDATE 1600 GMT: EA's Chris Emery has now posted a response, adding to Mr Smith's points that 13 Aban has been "a major blow to the Supreme Leader's authority".

---

Mr Smith, who was one of the EA correspondents following and updating on yesterday's events, offers his analysis:

The Green Wave has bounced back. The strongly-worded threats by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps did not deter the supporters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who made it to the police-infested streets of Tehran in their tens of thousands for yet another day of demonstrations, countering the official ones organised by the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei regime.

Yesterday's events are yet again proof of the fact that the opposition has not been defeated and is not going away. Nearly five months into the Iranian post-electoral crisis, the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei camp has not quite figured out a workable plan to fulfil its intent of silencing the critics. The litany of street violence unleashed by security forces, the background of the occasional killing and raping of reformist activists, and the current warnings by the IRGC and Ayatollah Khamenei that criticism of the "legitimate government" amounted to a crime did little to cow the Green Wave supporters. Instead, the Supreme Leader found himself at the receiving end of the street chants.

Yesterday's events also effectively ended the regime's capacity to use key Islamic Republic commemorations for its benefit. The Al-Jazeera English correspondent in Tehran portrayed the Green Wave demonstrations as a "hijacking" of the 13 Aban traditional marches. This interpretation is highly debatable, given that the perpetrators of the assault on the US embassy 30 years ago are now regime enemies, either languishing in jail, such as Mohsen Mirdamadi, or hovering in silence, such as the noted political analyst Abbas Abdi.

Another key outcome from yesterday's protests is the remarkable capacity of the rank-and-file to organise major events "from below", without needing or waiting for the go-ahead from its leadership. In fact, Mousavi and Karroubi are now effectively running after their own supporters and offering fatherly advice to them, rather than acting as beacons for the start of direct action.

And do not underestimate the damage of yesterday to the slight legitimacy that the current Government possesses. The amateur footage of young unarmed women being beaten up by riot police and the widespread accounts of violence meted out by security forces will do little to back up the official claim that a small group of "troublemakers" were dealt with humanely by the police. The new round of arrests against student activists and journalists effectively wipes out the scant concessions offered by the release on bail of eminent reformist personalities such as the newspaper editor Mohammad Ghoochani and the noted journalist Hengameh Shahidi. [Editor's note: That concession is very limited, given that Shahidi appeared yesterday in Revolutionary Court to face charges.]

However, not everything is rosy for the reformists. The heavy "security atmosphere", the Iranian euphemism for the massive presence of police forces on the streets, is having its effects. The number of participants to the 13 Aban demonstrations was considerably lower, by all accounts, than that of the Qods Day marches of 18 September. Many potential participants await news of police deployment before setting out in the streets.
And the leadership is bearing the brunt of its followers' enthusiasm and relative success. While Karroubi is staunchly appearing in public events, only to be confronted violently by the security forces, Mousavi is effectively in virtual house arrest, prevented from joining crowds of any size. Former President Mohammad Khatami is even more detached, while Hashemi Rafsanjani has gone back to his behind-the-scenes scheming.

More than ever, the Green movement now needs a clear-cut, cogent, middle- to long-term political strategy that will harness the strong popular resentment against Ahmadinejad to plans for the fall of the present government and the establishment of an alternative one, be that in the guise of a "National Unity" coalition or another form. There are reasons to believe that this possiblity is not far-fetched. Political enmity between Ahmadinejad and his conservative opponents is on the rise once again. The Brothers Larijani have contrived to block or delay any possible nuclear deal between the government and the International Atomice Energy Agency, for fear of the credit it would bring to Ahmadinejad. The subsidy plan proposed by the President has unravelled after a public quarrel between the president and Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Majlis.

A deal between Mousavi, Karroubi, and the Larijanis is still distant on the horizon. However, the two reformist leaders must attempt to turn the sizeable following they command into political capital. Up to that point, the Green movement will resemble the "creative chaos" that has often appeared in recent Iranian political history but has only occasionally succeeded in attaining its long-term goals. A nervous and vicious stalemate hangs right now over the political skyline of Tehran, with the shadows of the Islamic Republic's most enduring political crisis becoming deeper than ever.

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The Latest from Iran (3 November): 24 Hours to Go

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2100 GMT: Today's #1 Unseen Story. With all the developments on the streets, I doubt many noticed that former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and journalist Hengameh Shahidi appeared in the Revolutionary Court today. Shahidi was released last week on $90,000 bail after going on hunger strike; Abtahi has been in detention since June.

Instead of defending herself, Shahidi asked the judge to free her friend Fariba Pajooh, whose order for detention was reaffirmed two weeks ago.

1902 GMT: Josh Shahryar, having gone through the videos and reports of today's events, estimates that 25,000 to 30,000 opposition demonstrators were on the streets of Tehran at some point during 13 Aban. An estimated 2000-3000 were marching in Isfahan, but there is not enough information yet to project the numbers in other cities.

1900 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz has posted an overview of the events of 13 Aban, the "Greenest day of the year".

1845 GMT: Following today's encounter between Mehdi Karroubi and Iranian security forces near 7 Tir Square, we've posted the video of the BBC interview with Karroubi's son.

1755 GMT: Has Press TV Joined the Cause? Really. Here is the lead of their latest report on 13 Aban, and notice who gets first billing:

Thousands of supporters of defeated presidential candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, have held a rally in the Iranian capital as the country commemorated the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover.

The main anti-government rally took place at a central square in Tehran on Wednesday, November 4, our correspondent Leila Faramarzi reported.....

Tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to commemorate the day [of the anniversary of the US Embassy takeover], dubbed as the national day of fighting global arrogance. They also decried the policy of the Obama administration towards the Islamic Republic.

1725 GMT: Reports that activist Hasan Asad Zaidabadi, student activist Ali Mashmooli, journalist Nafiseh Zare-Kohan, women's rights activist Wahideh Molavi, and politicians Hojjat Sharifi, Ali Maleehi, Mohammad Sadeghi, and Mohammad Hashemi were arrested today. Coming on top of the regime's detention of three leading members of the reformist student organisation Daftar-Takhim-Vahdat, the news is apparent confirmation of the Government's strategy to break the core of the opposition movement.

Mowj-e-Sabz has a longer list of names of some of those arrested today.

1605 GMT: We've started a third set of videos.

1555 GMT: And More Cities.... Reports now confirm protests in Kermanshah and Zahedan.

1540 GMT: Parleman News has just published a story, with excellent photos, covering the diversity of both pro-Government and opposition protests in Isfahan.

1505 GMT: More on What Happened to Mousavi (see 1315 and 1345 GMT).

Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Kalemeh reports that all communication, including cell phones and internet connections, were shut down in the area surrounding the Farhangestan Academy of Art, where Mousavi’s office is located. Dozens of plainclothes bikers, supported by security forces, gathered in front of both entrances, chanting against Mousavi. One group attacked and entered the Academy of Arts.

The attackers backed off, but Mousavi’s car, which was planning to take the leader to the rally, was prevented from exiting the Academy by the heavy presence of security forces.

1425 GMT: Regime Goes After Rafsanjani?

Sharp-eyed readers will have noticed, in contrast to previous rallies, Hashemi Rafsanjani from our updates today. Once events have settled, our analysis will probably have to account for a Green movement that can no longer for backing from or even convergence with the former President.

That doesn't mean, however, that the regime is not keeping an eye on Rafsanjani. Fars News has just posted a lengthy article claiming that his youngest son, Yaser, was leading a group of 50-100 protesters at 7 Tir Square. Police dispersed them and arrested some of the "goons", who had damaged property. Mehdi Karroubi was forced to leave the square after seeing no one had turned up.

1350 GMT: Another Snap Analysis (see 0920 GMT).

Just before noon, I had drafted a fairly pessimistic reading of today's events, based on the rather limited turnout of "thousands" (compared to expectations), the security forces' push-back against Mehdi Karroubi, and the lack of news from other leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi. Marchers had been unable to achieve their primary goal of getting to major gathering points for a mass statement.

Some of my EA colleagues still hold this view, but I'm now withdrawing my draft. There are too many spontaneous and re-routed gatherings to say that the Green movement has been suppressed. And the footage that we are coming from outside Tehran, more than in previous rallies, indicates that there is a spread of the opposition.

Moreover, while the quantity of protestors may be less than expected, the strength of the sentiment is not to be underestimated. Despite all the regime's intimidation and threats, demonstrators are openly calling the Supreme Leader a "murderer" and stomping on his picture. Security forces may able to use tear gas and bullets in the air to keep them from the largest squares but they cannot remove them from the streets.

There is a half-empty argument that the spread of protest through the city shows the weakness of the Green movement, as security forces can risk moving from the key points to pursue demonstrators through the city. The half-full response is that those protestors --- whether fleeing or chanting or standing firm --- are being seen.

13 Aban is now 14 hours old.

1345 GMT: We've Found Mousavi. Mir Hossein Mousavi was not at home this morning. He is at the Farhangestan Cultural Center, completely surrounded by plainsclothes security forces. Some have attacked and entered the building, while others are outside chanting.

1315 GMT: And Where is Mir Hossein Mousavi? According to Rah-e-Sabz, he is under house arrest since early morning, surrounded by security forces.

1305 GMT: More on the Karroubi Incident (see 0930 and 1054 GMT).

Mehdi Karroubi got out of his car about 1,800 feet away from 7 Tir Square. About 300 feet from the square, security forces stood before Karroubi and stopped him from going further. Tear gas was fired at where Karroubi stood. One of his guards was hit on the head with a shell and was hospitalized. Karroubi suffered skin irritation and small burns from the tear gas and was forced to leave the area.

Karroubi returned to his car, which was attacked by security forces and badly damaged. The car finally moved towards Motahhari Avenue; along the way, Karroubi got out of the car many times to talk to people. (hat tip to Josh Shahryar)

1220 GMT: Too Many Good Clips. So we've started a second set of videos to add to our first collection.

1205 GMT: Another City? Josh Shahryar has reports of a rally in Isfahan with 2000-3000 people.

1150 GMT: Next Green Wave? Reports of protests and clashes throughout Tehran, including Vali-e Asr Avenue and Square, in front of the dormintory at the Polytechnic, Beh-Afareen Avenue, and Hafez Avenue. People are moving towards Vanak Square.

1123 GMT: Oops! It appears that the Iranian Labor News Agency was a collateral-damage victim when the Government cut off communications today. It seems that ILNA was unable to update its website for hours because of disruptions to Internet service around Enghelab Square.

1054 GMT: So What Happened to Karroubi? One of Mehdi Karroubi's sons, Mohammad Taghi Karroubi, has spoken to Radio Farda about this morning's events in 7 Tir Square. He says Karroubi was prevented from reaching the square by police forces. Two bodyguards were injured, as well as many other people, as police forces shot tear gas canisters at Karroubi and the surrouding crowd. (One of the bodyguards is still in hospital.) Karroubi's son also says that his father did not pack up and go home but joined people in other squares.

1045 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, which seems to be back to full speed, has a lengthy summary of the morning's events. It adds Tabriz and Arak to the list of cities where protests have occurred.

1025 GMT: Regrouping. After what appears to be the setback at 7 Tir Square, Mehdi Karroubi's Tagheer website has put out a denunciation of the "forces of dictatorship" of the police, security forces, and Revolutionary Guard who have confronted the "thousands of Iranian people" who protested this morning.

The statement appears, at this point, to be an admission that numbers of marchers have been relatively low ("thousands" rather than "tens of thousands"), putting the blame on the oppression of the regime.

1000 GMT: More on Government Strategy - Constrict and Shut Down Opposition. It appears Mowj-e-Sabz, the best source inside Iran for developments today, is running sporadically and slowly.

0940 GMT: The Guardian is reporting, from "a contact", more clashes in Ghaem Magham Farahani street near 7 Tir Square with some people covered in blood.

Meanwhile, Josh Shahryar passes on reports that many people were detained this morning and held in Al-Javad mosque in Tehran. We are trying to verify.

0930 GMT: The Karroubi Story. Mowj-e-Sabz is claiming that Mehdi Karroubi was beaten by "pro-coup forces and thugs" when he joined marchers near 7 Tir Square. We are treating this claim with great caution until we can get further information.

0920 GMT: Deep Breath Time.

We're assessing here at end of Act One of today. So far, the headline events are disappointing for the Green movement: Mehdi Karroubi showed up at 7 Tir Square but soon had to withdraw (whether because of risk of violence, threat of arrest, or another reason is unclear). Security forces have prevented large gatherings at other major sites. And there has no sign of, or even word from, figures like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami.

On the other hand, it is still relatively early in the day. Following patterns of earlier encounters, including Qods Day, the anti-Government movement will now move into a series of hit-and-run protests throughout Tehran. And there is already news of marches in other cities. That alone should keep attention on the demonstrations.

But will there be motivation and opportunity for the scattered marches to merge into one large symbolic presence, taking this day beyond 30 July and Qods Day and reviving the first post-election mass demonstrations?

0915 GMT: Blinkered Media (3). From EA correspondent: IRIB's domestic channel is no longer showing live footage of the pro-Government rally. An "expert" in the studio is blasting Western media for making up stories of anti-Government protests: "They picked up footage from [our] News Channel but implied through their own subtitles that something else is happening on the streets of Tehran. They are implying that anti-Revolutionary activity is happening on the streets of Tehran."

0910 GMT: Reports of protests on Khogare Shomali Avenue in Tehran.

0905 GMT: We're bouncing back from a computer problem to bring you up to speed. Four videos from today --- three from Tehran, one from Rasht --- are posted in a separate entry.

Mowj-e-Sabz is reporting a large protest in Shiraz. That makes three cities besides Tehran where marches have been confirmed: Shiraz, Mazandaran, and Rasht.

0835 GMT: EA correspondent Mr Smith checks in to give a snap analysis:

The Revolutionary Guard wasn't joking. As feared, the threats were real.

No sign of Mousavi or Khatami--- they have been cowed off the streets. However,
the Ferdowsi Square clashes are significant, as Ferdowsi is nowhere close to the ruote of Karroubi. That shows the spontaneity of these protests. They are basically there alone --- no leader in sight --- which shows the "movement from below" nature of this crisis.

0830 GMT: Reuters is first "Western" news service to report, "Mousavi supporters clash with police in Tehran". BBC English has followed.

0825 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz is also reporting on clashes at Ferdowsi Square. Josh Shahryar is reporting that Internet connections have been severely disrupted inside Iran. Cellphone service sporadic.

0810 GMT: The Green movement's Mowj-e-Sabz is now posting on the morning events. It has pieces on Karroubi's march to join the crowd, shooting "at the crowds" (we are treating this as an exaggeration of shots fired in the air), beatings and arrests, and the Mazandaran protest.

0800 GMT: Momentum. We are now treating the reports of Karroubi in the crowd as confirmed; a second good source is carrying the news.

And news is coming in of protests outside Tehran. We are treating news of a gathering in Mazandaran in northern Iran as probable, and there are unconfirmed claims of protests in Shiraz, Arak, and Isfahan.

0750 GMT: A Big Moment? It is being reported that Mehdi Karroubi is moving towards 7 Tir Square to join crowds.

0745 GMT: Report that "100s walk towards 7 Tir square holding up V signs. No anti-government chants. Cars honk in heavy traffic jams".

And Josh Shahryar writes that he has confirmation that some people have been beaten up in the clashes at Tehran University and near 7 Tir Square.

0740 GMT: As with previous marches, we are in a tricky early phase where it is hard to separate truth from rumour on the clashes between security forces and protestors. At this point, it appears that the forces are trying to disperse the crowds, using tear gas and possibly firing shots into the air.

0730 GMT: Press TV English have now joined Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for live coverage of the pro-Government rally outside the US Embassy.

0725 GMT: Earlier this morning security forces arrested Mohsen Amoozadeh, a member of youth wing of the Mousavi campaign.

0715 GMT: Government Strategy Unfolds. Reports of clashes at 7 Tir Square and between University students and security forces, as Government attempts to keep people away from the major gathering points.

0710 GMT: Latest from Twitter:

1. Security forces are completely alert at Ferdowsi and are equipped with combat helmet, batons and tear gas.
2. Forces have taken over Enghelab [Square] across from Ferdowsi.

0700 GMT: The Regime Strategy. OK, I think I have a read on how the Government is trying to shut down this day of opposition. Seal off major gathering points such as 7 Tir Square and bottle up groups like University students from reaching them. Broadcast non-stop footage of the pro-Government rally outside the US Embassy and hope no one notices the protests.

So far they seem to have had some success, but we're getting reports of "thousands" in locations from 7 Tir Square to Laleh Park and this day has only begun.

0645 GMT: Blinkered Media (2). CNN, to its credit, is highlighting the Iran story, but it is off to a bad start. The anchor started the 0610 GMT report with, "Demonstrations are underway to mark the anniversary of the US Embassy siege, and some anti-establishment protests are also expected." However, because CNN's correspondent, Shirzad Bozorgmehr, is outside the US Embassy, he sees only the thousands of students and police and army cadets chanting  "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" and singing "nationalistic slogans".

Bozorgmehr continues, "I see no sign of counter-demonstrations by the opposition on the streets at all," which is not surprising since the Green rallies are beginning in other parts of Tehran. And so he keeps saying, "So far they haven't shown up."

0640 GMT: Latest reports via Twitter:

1. Helicopter are flying, roads are still filled with anti-riot and security police. People have not fully formed groups yet.
2. Tehran University students are leaving the university by chanting "Down with Dictator". Riot police are blocking students from exiting.

0630 GMT: Blinkered Media (Part 1). And how is Press TV covering 13 Aban so far? Live shots of pro-Government crowd outside the US Embassy with voiceover, "Iran marks 30th anniversary of seizure with anti-US rallies". Not a word, unsurprisingly, on gatherings elsewhere in Tehran.

And then the channel switches to a 30-minute profile of Jundallah, the Baluch insurgent group responsible for last month's suicide bombing in southwestern Iran.

0625 GMT: Your Comic Media Highlight of the Day.

I am not making this up. When we started blogging this morning, Press TV's English service was broadcasting a documentary called "Electile Dysfunction".

For a moment, I thought Iranian state media had decided, belatedly, to consider the incidents on and after the 12 June Presidential election. But only for a moment --- this was an old documentary on the corruptions, biases, and inequalities of the US electoral process.

0620 GMT: Reports that people starting to gather in 7 Tir Square. Also reported that Sharif University students are moving towards Tehran University in center of the city.

0600 GMT: We have posted the text of President Obama's statement on Iran. At first glance, it is extremely clever: Obama turns the history of the 1979 Embassy takeover into his desire to "move beyond this past and seek a relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran based upon mutual interests and mutual respect".

Obama then moves to the current nuclear talks --- "if Iran lives up to the obligations that every nation has, it will have a path to a more prosperous and productive relationship with the international community" --- but it is his shift to the situation inside Iran that is most significant. Having already declared, "We do not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs," he concludes:

Iran must choose. We have heard for thirty years what the Iranian government is against; the question, now, is what kind of future it is for. The American people have great respect for the people of Iran and their rich history. The world continues to bear witness to their powerful calls for justice, and their courageous pursuit of universal rights. It is time for the Iranian government to decide whether it wants to focus on the past, or whether it will make the choices that will open the door to greater opportunity, prosperity, and justice for its people.

To my knowledge, this is the first direct comment by a high-level US official, let alone Obama, on Iran's political situation since June.

0555 GMT: Initial reports from Iranian sources via Twitter:

1. There are reports of heavy anti-riot police and plainclothes present in 7 Tir [Square in Tehran].
2. Family friend from Shiraz: Military and Police surrounding TV and radio station.
3. All streets ending to former US Embassy are closed.

0550 GMT: EA correspondent Josh Shahryar has written a special analysis for 13 Aban, considering the Green movement in the context of the 1989 risings in Eastern Europe and China: "Fictions and Realities of 'Revolution'".

0530 GMT: Good morning.

It is 9 a.m., local time, in Tehran, and we are in place for a day which --- from my distant perception --- has produced the greatest excitement and highest expectation since early in the post-election crisis. As an EA reader summarised yesterday, putting 13 Aban in the context of the last mass march in Iran:

On Qods Day [18 September] we were full of fear and doubt. I personally didn’t know how big the crowd will be, we went out and throw our hearts at the sea.

Tommorw I have no doubts that there will be masses on the street. Tomorrow I have no fear when I march, for I have faced fear in the face, and won on Qods Day.

Only a fool would predict what is to unfold, but my fool's sense is that this gathering will surpass even the hundreds of thousands who emerged in various marches and gatherings on Qods Day. In the last six weeks, the Government has tried and failed to blunt, let alone crush the opposition movement. Mehdi Karroubi's symbolic appearance at the Iran Media Fair, Mir Hossein Mousavi's statements with renewed vigor and hope, the building university demonstrations, and just the amount of information and video reaching us and the world: all support our reader. Hope accompanies and possibly trumps fear, desires for the future trump resignation and passivity.

Today is 13 Aban.

Latest from Iran (1 November): Is This the Opposition's Moment?

NEW Video: Sharif University Protest (1 November)
NEW Video Flashback: Ahmadinejad v. The Giant Flying Bug
NEW Iran: More 13 Aban Videos
NEW Video: The Mothers of Martyrs March (31 October)
Iran: Mousavi Statement for 13 Aban Demonstrations (31 October)
Video: Tonight's “Allahu Akhbars” at Sharif University (30-31 October)
The Latest from Iran (31 October): Karroubi to March on 13 Aban

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2100 GMT: A Hold-Up of the Telecommunications Privatisation? Mehr News reports that Iran's General Inspection Organization has said uncertainties remain in the purchase of the Telecommunications Company of Iran (TCI), submitting its report to a Parliamentary committee for further investigation.

Three Iranian firms, part of a consortium named Etemad Mobin Development, bought 50 percent plus one share of the company for $7.8 billion on 20 September. There are claims that the Revolutionary Guard is a hidden partner in the consortium.

2050 GMT: Mr Smith adds to the news (1530 GMT) that Mehdi Karroubi restated his claims of election fraud in a meeting today. Karroubi was actually meeting the leadership of Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat, the student organisation who supported him in the Presidential campaign and whose leaders, Ahmad Zeidabadi and Abdollah Momeni, are currently in jail.

2030 GMT: More on Hengameh Shahidi. After some uncertainty this afternoon over her announced release on $90,000 bail, the Karroubi advisor was able to leave after more than 120 days in detention, including 50 in solitary confinement. There are reports that she has been transferred to hospital following her hunger strike last week.

We have been identifying Shahidi as a lawyer. Mr Smith checks in to correct us: she is a prominent journalist and war correspondent.

1550 GMT: "Other" Larijani Jumps In on Nuclear Issue. Sadegh Larijani, head of Iran's judiciary and brother of Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani, has jumped into the discussion on the nuclear negotiations, declaring that they were not beneficial to Iran.

That's a pretty blatant political move, given that uranium enrichment isn't exactly a judicial responsibility. So is this now a Larijani axis against President Ahmadinejad on the issue of "engagement" with the West?

1540 GMT: Crackdown? The Western media are excited over a statement from Iran's deputy head of police Ahmad Reza Radan, "The police will act against any illegal gathering on the 13th of Aban." Even Britain's Sky News, which rarely notes internal Iran developments, hails this as a "Top Story".

We're playing wait-and-see. It was inevitable that the police would react to this week's 13 Aban declarations with law-and-order warnings. More significant will be any threats from Government leaders or the Revolutionary Guard.

1530 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi, speaking to the Central Council of University Alumni, claimed that votes were "rationed" in the Presidential election. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was allocated 25 million votes while Karroubi was allowed only 330,000.

1505 GMT: Iranian Labor News Agency is reporting that Karroubi advisor and lawyer Hengameh Shahidi, who has been on hunger strike in Evin Prison, has been released on $90,000 bail. Iranian activists are saying, however, that Shahidi has not appeared in front of the prison, where her family is waiting.

1500 GMT: Reformist political activist Behzad Nabavi has appeared in court today. After requesting an open trial, Nabavi, suffering from ill health throughout his four-month detention, was transferred to hospital.
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1450 GMT: And the Protest Videos Keep Coming. We've posted the latest, from Sharif University latest.

1425 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Sane'i has issued a statement inviting people to participate in rallies on 13 Aban (4 November). Sane'i warned that tyrants and autocrats should well know that the Iranian nation, by its strong resistance and by participation in the events of 13 Aban, will unveil and neutralise hidden and secret plans made against the rights and interests of the people.

1415 GMT: According to Iranian Labor News Agency, the head of  Friday Prayers Committee, Seyed Reza Taghavi, has declared that Hashemi Rafsanjani will not be leading Tehran's prayers in the near-future.

1200 GMT: The Coordination Council of the Reform Front has issued a statement inviting all people to demonstrate on 13 Aban (4 November). The Council condemned the post-election trials and heavy sentences imposed on protesters and expressed deep regrets and sorrow of “examples of promoting organised violence”, such as the assaults against Mehdi Karoubi and Alireza Beheshti at the Tehran Media Fair.

1135 GMT: Video Flashback. To honour President Ahmadinejad's defiance of his "mosquito" enemies, we have posted the video of his 6 July post-election speech, during which he battled a Giant Flying Bug.
1115 GMT: Ahmadinejad v. The Mosquito. Unsurprisingly, Western media are buzzing about the President's statement this morning, "While enemies have used all their capacities ... the Iranian nation is standing powerfully and they are like a mosquito."

No one, unfortunately, is interpreting what exactly mosquito-swatting means. Go beyond the metaphor, and Ahmadinejad is maintaining his strategy --- set out in his speech on Thursday --- of continuing talks by framing them as Western concessions to Iran's strength: "Given the negative record of Western powers, the Iranian government ... looks at the talks with no trust. But realities dictate to them to interact with the Iranian nation."

0945 GMT: State Media Endorses Khatami?

Really. Press TV gives a full and positive description of former president Mohammad Khatami's Saturday statement to reformist university groups (see yesterday's updates). The headline is "We Will Remain Critical of Power" from Khatami's assertion, “We will continue to stay critical of the current power trend, of course within the framework of a movement that supports Islam, the Islamic Republic and the [1979] Revolution.”

How can Press TV embrace the opposition leader? First, it emphasises that Khatami is calling for criticism within the system. Then it takes the sting out of Khatami's targeted criticism of "some deviations which must be set right with.. religious and Revolutionary principles", never mentioning that this is directed at the current Government. So Press TV can endorse Khatami's assurance that the Reformist movement denounces violence “by all means”, while ignoring the specific meaning of his declaration that "certain other parties endorse it as the basis of their thoughts and actions".

0900 GMT: Islamic Republic News Agency reports that the Russian Ambassador to Iran is continuing to press Tehran to accept the third-party enrichment deal for its uranium stock.

Does this state media report indicate the Ahmadinejad Government is still keeping the door open for talks? And, if so, how far?

0810 GMT: Profiles of the Day. Homy Lafayette writes about Mehdi Karroubi's advisor, journalist, and women's rights activist Hengameh Shahidi, who is on hunger strike in Evin Prison. Shahidi has been detained since 30 June.

And Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times picks up Wednesday's story of the maths student, Mahmoud Vahidnia, who challenged the Supreme Leader.

0800 GMT: A very good day for the Green opposition yesterday. Mir Hossein Mousavi took over the news cycle with his statement anticipating the protests of 13 Aban (4 November), and then Mehdi Karroubi announced that he would be joining marchers at Amir Kabir University on Wednesday. Meanwhile, amidst the in-house fighting over the nuclear talks with the "West", there was little of note from the regime.

A quiet morning so far, so we've posted other signals of the opposition momentum. There is video of the Saturday gathering in Tehran's Laleh Park of the mothers of those killed and detained, and we have the latest examples of the videos promoting the 13 Aban marches.