The Latest from Iran (9 November): Assessing the Government

NEW Iran: An Eyewitness on 13 Aban “Protest An Inseparable Part of People’s Lives”
NEW Iran's Nuclear Programme: Washington's Unhelpful Misperceptions
Latest Iran Video: Mehdi Karroubi on the 13 Aban Protests
NEW Iran: An Opposition Renewing, A Government in Trouble
Iran: Question for the Regime “What’s Your Next Punch?”
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban & from Today (8-9 November)

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2030 GMT: We're still waiting for an English translation of today's Mir Hossein Mousavi newspaper with Jamaran, the newspaper of the Khomeini family (see 1015 GMT). The headline is Mousavi's declaration that Iran is "vulnerable" in the current political situation: “People who entered the scene of the Revolution did not do it to suffer such difficulties. They came to secure their freedom and welfare, and if the system fails to deliver, it will lose its legitimacy for certain.”

2020 GMT: An EA reader has sent us the petition, printed in full in the comments below, to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to commute the death sentence of Ehsan Fatahian, a 28-year-old Kurd who is scheduled for execution on Wednesday. Fatahian was initially given a 10-year prison term for “plotting against national security” but this was changed to a death sentence by an appeal court when the charge “waging war against God” was added.

2000 GMT: Back from a break to find excellent material from readers. With university demonstrations continuing today, we've posted four clips from a rally at Azad University, Khomeini Shahr, outside Isfahan.

An EA reader describes, in a comment below, today's  ceremony awarding the Human Rights Defenders Tulip to Iranian lawyer and human/women’s rights activist Shadi Sadr in The Hague.

Tomorrow (10 November) at 12:00 CET she will present a film, Women in Shrouds, and hold a Q&A about human rights in Iran. If anyone here would like to ask her a question through me, please post it here in these comments.

1645 GMT: Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat, the main reformist student and alumni organisation, has issued a statement announcing that it will withstand the oppression of "coup agents" with all of its organisational power, even as almost half of its key members are imprisoned or sought by the security forces.


The significance beyond this general assertion is that when the organisation issued a statement of defiance on the eve of 13 Aban, the regime arrested three of its leading members. So renewing this show of resistance is a clear signal that, less than a month before the next mass rally on 16 Azar (7 December), the students will not be cowed into silence.

1630 GMT: Hillary Responds and Iran's State Media Takes Note. No surprise that Secretary of State Clinton would offer a boiler-plate response to the news of the charging of the three hikers:

We believe strongly that there is no evidence to support any charge whatsoever. And we would renew our request on the behalf of these three young people and their families that the Iranian government exercise compassion and release them so they can return home. And we will continue to make that case through our Swiss protecting power, who represents the United States in Tehran.

More interesting, perhaps, that the statement would be prominently featured on Press TV's website.

1440 GMT: The Story Beyond the Headline Story --- 3 US Hikers Charged with Espionage. Western media will be dominated for the next 24 hours by the breaking news that three Americans who strayed across the Iraq-Iran border will be charged with spying, according to Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi.

Here's the unreported dimension of the event. The news came through only hours after the US representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Glyn Davies, offered Washington's olive branch in the nuclear talks:

"There have been communications back and forth. We are in extra innings in these negotiations. That's sometimes the way these things go....We want to give some space to Iran to work through this. It's a tough issue for them, quite obviously, and we're hoping for an early positive answer from the Iranians."

Davies' kind words appear to be tied to the new Iranian counter-proposal (see separate entry), which in visit may be linked to Russian intervention through the visit of its Deputy Foreign Minister to Tehran this weekend.

So is the Iranian Government playing a cunning game where it can engage the US with one hand and strike at Washington, via its citizens,  with the other? Or are we now seeing a schizophrenic Government in which one group is pursuing negotiations while another is going for intimidation?

1225 GMT: Ahmadinejad and the CIA. The politics around the President's "engagement" with the US, given the regime's simultaneous post-election use of "velvet coup" to crack down on opponents, is getting very confusing.

The Iranian Labor News Agency features an interview with conservative activist Mojtaba Shakeri, who says that  some of the journalists and scholars who met with Ahmadinejad, presumably during the President's trip to New York, were undoubtedly CIA operatives. Shakeri says this is common US practice and occurred in previous encounters with Presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami.

For Mir Hossein Mousavi's Kalemeh, the interview is enough to become the sensational revelation that the President has met CIA officials. That, of course, is part of the current opposition campaign to question the President's duplicity in negotiating with the Obama Administration while denouncing the evils of the US.

1145 GMT: We have received a moving and thoughtful e-mail from an EA reader, offering an eyewitness summary of the importance of 13 Aban. It is posted in a separate entry.

1110 GMT: Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Prosecutor General who organised the first post-election trials and has been linked to the abuses at Kahrizak Prison, may be moving post for the second times in three months. Mortazavi became Iran's Deputy Prosecutor General but may now become head of the economic crimes division of the Justice Ministry.

1015 GMT: Green Publicity. Mir Hossein Mousavi has spoken with Jamaran, the newspaper of the Khomeini family, about the need for unity through adherence to the Constitution of the Islamic Republic. This is the second major interview Jamaran has featured in 72 hours, having spoken with former President Mohammad Khatami this weekend.

0945 GMT: Why are Bread Prices Rising? EA correspondent Mohammad Khiabani, who specialises in analysis on the Iranian economy, has a look at the recent increase in bread prices (see yesterday's updates), "This is not completely unrelated to subsidy removals, since merchants often increase prices in future expectation of inflation, which of course leads to inflation." This from the US Open Source Center:

In its November 8 issue, Hemayat said that the two traditional breads including Barbari and Sangak were being sold for 600 and 2,000 tomans, respectively (approximately 1,000 tomans = US $1). The newspaper said that, coming before the announcement of the new rates for bread, evidence shows that the increase in prices is more than what was officially declared. Officials had declared new rates for the traditional bread in the first week of November. Under this scheme the price per bread for unsubsidized Sangak is 400 tomans and in subsidized bakeries it is 175 tomans.

Jomhouri Eslami headlined: "New wave of expensive bread". The report pointed out that the offenders are overcharging while the authorities are only giving warnings. Jomhuri Islami reported the cost of bread in various Tehran neighborhoods. In southern Tehran Barbari costs 150 tomans, Pasadaran (northeast) 200 tomans, Saadatabad (northwest) 250 tomans, Shahrake Gharb (northwest) 300 tomans, Shahrake Omid (northeast) 500 tomans, Ketabi Square (north) 600 tomans.
As for the Sangak, which uses a more expensive flour and baking process, it was sold in Pasdaran for 1,000 tomans, Saadatabad 700 tomans, and Shahrake Gharb for 2,000 tomans.

0900 GMT: Iran's Telecommunications Privatised. Press TV reports:

An Iranian consortium has signed a deal to buy 50 percent plus one of the shares of Telecommunication Company of Iran (TCI) for around eight billion dollars. According to the deputy of Iran's Privatization Company, the related contract was signed Sunday with an Iranian consortium named Etemad Mobin Development that includes three firms.

"The historical deal was signed after an article was added to the $7.8 billion text of the contract according to which the buyer will be committed to the charter of TCI," said Mehdi Oghadaei.

0805 GMT: The muddle inside Iran on the nuclear negotiations and a useful but disturbing New York Times article this morning prompt us to offer an analysis, "Iran's Nuclear Programme: Washington's Unhelpful Misperceptions".

0640 GMT: Unsurprisingly, Iranian state media are playing up the meetings of President Ahmadinejad with Turkish President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul. No details are offered, though Erdogan has recently been supportive of Iran's line on its nuclear programme, criticising its Israeli counterpart.

0610 GMT: An EA reader sends in a piece of interesting information about Internet trends inside Iran. The search volume for Mohsen Sazegara, a founder of the Revolutionary Guard who is now a fervent opponent of the regime from his exile in the US, is twice that for Mehdi Karroubi.

Not sure of the significance of this; any ideas would be welcome.

0600 GMT: We'll be trying to put the pieces together on where the Iranian Government is heading, even if those involved don't know where they fit.

President Ahmadinejad is in Ankara for the meeting of the economic committee of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, which raises the possibilities of the Government going into a holding phase or (more likely) others manoeuvring while Ahmadinejad is away.

One of the events which may or may not be significant in those calculations continues to be debated today. We initially speculated that Speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani, travelled to Najaf in Iraq to see senior clerics because of the internal discussions in Tehran. EA correspondent Josh Mull has been putting the alternative that Larijani saw Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and others to encourage passage of the law for Iraqi elections in January, and other observers also back that view.

On the opposition side, there is a lot of Internet chatter this morning about Mehdi Karroubi's webcast yesterday, recounting the events of 13 Aban and criticising the Government's manipulation of the issue of relations with the US. And discussion is picking up over a planned demonstration at Shiraz University today.

The Latest from Iran (7 November): Regrouping

NEW Iran: Question for the Regime "What's Your Next Punch?"
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

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2240 GMT: Confirmation that Ebrahim Amini, of the Etemade Melli party and a close relative of Mehdi Karroubi, has also been released from detention.

2150 GMT: Dr. Ali Tajernia, former MP and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released after 140 days in detention.

2145 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran has a Farsi-language update on detainees, including the transfer of 95 people arrested on 13 Aban from detention centres to Evin Prison.

2140 GMT: After the arrest of two students of Khaje Nasir University in Tehran, classmates went on hunger strike in front of the cafeteria and chanted, “Allahu Akhbar [God is Great]".

2130 GMT: Confirming indications we had received from EA sources in recent weeks, the Supreme Leader has reinstated Ezatullah Zarghami as head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for five years.

Zarghami had been considered vulnerable because of regime dissatisfaction with IRIB's output before and after the Presidential election, but a suitable replacement could not be arranged. Khamenei indicated this with a call for Zarghami to "take advantage of successful or unsuccessful experiences of the past five years to help this medium reach a better quality".

2125 GMT: Iran's Internal Nuclear Dispute. Press TV's website is now featuring the anti-talks line taken by high-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi (see 0845 GMT).



1648 GMT: Back-Channel US-Iran Talks? An EA reader has picked up what may be a significant unnoticed story in the nuclear negotiations. Peykeiran claims that President Ahmadinejad's close advisor and chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has secretly met Hooshang Amirahmadi, a US-based academic and the President of the American Iranian Council, in a villa in Gilan Province in northern Iran.

It is unclear why Amirahmadi is representing the Obama Administration and, if so, what message he could be conveying about the discussions on uranium enrichment. If true, however, the meeting would be a clear sign of a split between Ahmadinejad and high-profile conservatives/principlists calling for the deal to be abandoned.

1640 GMT: On the Los Angeles Times' blog "Babylon & Beyond", Borzou Daragahi has highlighted, "Defying supreme leader, reformist Khatami continues to question election" (see 1200, 1400, & 1418 GMT). It will be interesting to see if the Times prints this in Sunday's newspaper, maintaining a focus on Iran after 13 Aban.

One interesting note: Jamaran, where Khatami's remarks first appeared, is owned by the family of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

1620 GMT: Farhad Pouladi, the Iranian reporter for Agence France Presse detained on 13 Aban, has been freed.

1418 GMT: More on Khatami's Statement (see 1200 GMT). The former President has declared, “Senior authorities should accept that there is a crisis in the country" and allow all views to be expressed freely. He added, "We should find out who are ignoring the law for their own benefit, and those are the ones that should not be at centre of power."

Khatami continued his challenge to the Government as a defence of the true nature of the Islamic Republic:

If we truly return to the rule of law and those who are the guardians of the law don’t interpret the law based on their own personal views and don’t ignore the constitution,...[then the constitution will be the most important reference point. that can create unity in our society despite all the different views

We are still standing firm on our positions....In the Islamic Republic just as we defend Islam we are also defending people’s rights and votes. Those who are ignoring people’s votes and are willing to change them, are strangers to the Revolution and the Islamic Republic.

1408 GMT: And Now the Big News. We wrote earlier this morning that the regime seemed adrift and uncertain in how to respond to 13 Aban, but "tonight the President could try to change all the calculations above with an address to the nation".

Well, he won't because Ahmadinejad's speech tonight is postponed. This may be explained by the sudden announcement that the President is going to Turkey tomorrow (to discuss a re-arranged enrichment deal? --- see 0935 GMT), but pending a major breakthrough on that front, I'm going to read this as confirmation that the Government is a bit more than lost at the moment. This is the second postponement of the speech since Thursday's rallies.

1400 GMT: Regrouping Indeed. Former President Khatami is not just reasserting himself with statements questioning the election and the legitimacy of the Government (see 1200 GMT). He also met Mehdi Karroubi last night in his home.

Nominally, Khatami expressed sorrow and comforted Karroubi about the violence during the 13 Aban rallies, as did Abdollah Nouri, the interior minister in Khatami’s administration, and Bagher Golpaygani , son of the late Grand Ayatollah Golpaygani. But who is to say that other topics were not discussed?

1350 GMT: This is Important, but Why? I'm not sure what to make of this news yet, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has traveled to Najaf in Iraq to meet Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and other Shi'a clerics.

No clue yet as to topic of discussions. Earlier in the crisis, Sistani and his son had been in talks with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and Iranian clerics who have been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government. So is Larijani seeking support from Sistani and Iraq-based Ayatollahs to bolster the Government? Or the Supreme Leader? Or the position of the Supreme Leader against Ahmadinejad?

1340 GMT: Iranian activist "PersianBanoo" is updating with latest news on arrests from the 13 Aban protests.

1200 GMT: Khatami Rises. We have noted this week that the former President Mohammad Khatami has been relatively quiet, limiting himself to a general statement yesterday when he visited Karroubi  advisor Morteza Alviri.

Well, Khatami is back with a flourish today, declaring that the biggest "crime" of the current regime is its detachment from the values of the Revolution. And, despite warnings from the Supreme Leader, Khatami has renewed his criticism of the Presidential election.

1150 GMT: The Effect of Subsidy Cuts. Borzou Daragahi reports, from a source in Tehran, that bread prices in the capital have more than doubled.

0950 GMT: We've split off our first update today as a separate analysis, "Question for the Regime: What's Your Next Punch?"

0935 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal On? High-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi may be declaring the enrichment deal dead (see 0845 GMT), but the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, is claiming that a compromise may have been found. He told Bloomberg News that Turkey could replace France as the third country involved, shaping the Iranium uranium enriched by Russia into metal plates.

So, is El Baradei just putting out desperate ideas to save the deal or, given that Press TV is featuring his comments, is there a section of the Iranian Government that is still committed to discussions?

0930 GMT: Really, Only 109? Azizollah Rajabzadeh, the head of Tehran police, has said, "Police arrested 109 people who created disorder and disturbed public order and security on the sideline of the rally on Wednesday. Some 62 of the detainees were jailed and the rest were released."

Of course, that number does not include those detained outside Tehran, but it's still a distance from the 400+ reported by Iranian human rights groups. So, presuming that Rajabzadeh has kept the number low, does that indicate: 1) the regime does not want to admit to the scale of the detentions, which would point to the real size of the rallies? 2) the regime is trying to show it was not that repressive, cutting against the image of the "velvet fist" it has been displaying? 3) nobody within the Government is in control of how to handle the outcome of 13 Aban?

0855 GMT: A "Correct" Press TV. We noted that, late on the night of 13 Aban and early the following day, someone at Press TV was putting out stories highlighting the opposition protests rather than those for the Government.

No more. This morning, Press TV's website has a story, "Iran Frees Three Detained Foreigners". We had that news yesterday; what is more significant is the framing of the article: "On Wednesday tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets as part of an annual event to mark the storming of the American embassy in Tehran more than three decades ago."

So that's where the "foreigners" were arrested? Well, it must be, since Press TV --- in contrast to its earlier coverage --- dares not mention the Green rallies that were taking place elsewhere in the capital and throughout Iran.

0845 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal Off? Iranian Students News Agency is featuring a comment by the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, “Iran is not to give any of its 1200 kilograms fuel to the other party to receive 20 percent (enriched) fuel and whether gradually or at once, this will not be done and is called off.” Boroujerdi insisted that Iran must and would find another way to get uranium, "Mr [Ali Asghar] Soltanieh [Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency] is in talks to find an approach for the issue.”

Boroujerdi's burying of the Vienna deal for Russia to enrich Iran's uranium follows his speech introducing Friday Prayers, in which he denounced protesters for mouthing the words of the Voice of America.

Iran: Question for the Regime "What's Your Next Punch?"

Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
The Latest from Iran (7 November): Regrouping

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Almost 36 hours after the 13 Aban demonstrations, all is relatively quiet on the surface in Iran. In different ways, both sides threw big punches on Wednesday, and both may be re-assessing before deciding on the next punch.

On 13 Aban, the regime's attempted knockout was to beat and detain. We are now getting a fuller picture of the violence of the security forces, and more than 400 Iranians were taken to detention centers and prisons. Yet we also know that the demonstrations continued late into the night. And the opposition's communications are still running, albeit having to cope with restrictions and disruptions: both the Mousavi website Kalemeh has re-established itself, and the Karroubi website Tagheer was back up after an outage on Friday.

So what is a Government to do? Friday's clue to a response, albeit a hesitant and (it appears) uncertain one, was the Friday Prayer of Ahmed Khatami. Significantly, his normal big rhetorical stick was accompanied this time by the carrot of leniency and "freedom" if protesters repented. That offer was matched during the day by the again hesitant and confused signals from the Tehran Prosecutor's office. While still unable or unwilling to give the number of people detained on Wednesday, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi declared that "many" had been released and, in particular, noted foreigners who had been freed.

At the same time, the regime was announcing a set of trials, starting today and continuing to Monday. of high-profile reformists detained since the election. So, if there is a coherent strategy, it appears to revolve about splitting the Green movement by giving partial amnesty to those who give up the cause and coming down hard on the "leaders".

The difficulties only need a milli-second to emerge. Have a look at the discussion amongst our readers, some of whom are inside Iran, across various threads. It is fascinating and will give you more information than any mainstream analysis. The debate amongst the "rank-and-file" is not whether to give up, accepting a quieter and less fraught life, but what methods to adopt: civil disobedience or a show of force against the regime's oppressions? In such conditions, the signal of Khatami that some may be forgiven is a whistle in a growing opposition wind.

And there are the leaders. Rafsanjani has now retreated from public views to consider his tactics. Mousavi may indeed be bottled up --- for how long, time will tell. Khatami is cautious. But Karroubi? My growing sense is that he feels he has nothing to lose. And a cleric with charisma and nothing to lose poses a problem that no Government threat can easily remove.

So step up, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Tonight the President could try to change all the calculations above with an address to the nation after 9 p.m. The limited previews, however, give no indication that he will not make a direct response to the events of the last 72 hours. Instead, he will try to take the nation's eyes to the "nuclear question" and offer the vision of information technology. Caught up in a different battle, this one with Parliament over his subsidy reform proposals, he may try reassurances and make demands on the economy.

All of which makes sense but still would be an attempt to work around rather than deal with the challenge. For, if there is a takeaway line from 13 Aban, it is this:

The opposition --- whatever the threats, whatever the inducements --- will not go away.

The Latest from Iran (4 November --- 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s Son on 13 Aban Incidents
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 3rd Set)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 2nd Set)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 1st Set)
Text: President Obama’s Statement on Iran (4 November)
NEW Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
Latest Iran Video: Rooftop “Allahu Akhbar” Chants (3 November)
Latest Iran Video: Protests at Iranian Universities and a High School (3 November)
Iran: A Response to “What If the Green Movement Isn’t Ours?” (The Sequel)
Iran: A Response to an American Who Asks, “What if the Green Movement Isn’t ‘Ours’?
Iran: More 13 Aban Videos
The Latest from Iran (3 November): 24 Hours to Go

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2100 GMT: Today's #1 Unseen Story. With all the developments on the streets, I doubt many noticed that former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and journalist Hengameh Shahidi appeared in the Revolutionary Court today. Shahidi was released last week on $90,000 bail after going on hunger strike; Abtahi has been in detention since June.

Instead of defending herself, Shahidi asked the judge to free her friend Fariba Pajooh, whose order for detention was reaffirmed two weeks ago.

1902 GMT: Josh Shahryar, having gone through the videos and reports of today's events, estimates that 25,000 to 30,000 opposition demonstrators were on the streets of Tehran at some point during 13 Aban. An estimated 2000-3000 were marching in Isfahan, but there is not enough information yet to project the numbers in other cities.

1900 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz has posted an overview of the events of 13 Aban, the "Greenest day of the year".

1845 GMT: Following today's encounter between Mehdi Karroubi and Iranian security forces near 7 Tir Square, we've posted the video of the BBC interview with Karroubi's son.

1755 GMT: Has Press TV Joined the Cause? Really. Here is the lead of their latest report on 13 Aban, and notice who gets first billing:

Thousands of supporters of defeated presidential candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, have held a rally in the Iranian capital as the country commemorated the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover.

The main anti-government rally took place at a central square in Tehran on Wednesday, November 4, our correspondent Leila Faramarzi reported.....

Tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to commemorate the day [of the anniversary of the US Embassy takeover], dubbed as the national day of fighting global arrogance. They also decried the policy of the Obama administration towards the Islamic Republic.

1725 GMT: Reports that activist Hasan Asad Zaidabadi, student activist Ali Mashmooli, journalist Nafiseh Zare-Kohan, women's rights activist Wahideh Molavi, and politicians Hojjat Sharifi, Ali Maleehi, Mohammad Sadeghi, and Mohammad Hashemi were arrested today. Coming on top of the regime's detention of three leading members of the reformist student organisation Daftar-Takhim-Vahdat, the news is apparent confirmation of the Government's strategy to break the core of the opposition movement.

Mowj-e-Sabz has a longer list of names of some of those arrested today.

1605 GMT: We've started a third set of videos.

1555 GMT: And More Cities.... Reports now confirm protests in Kermanshah and Zahedan.

1540 GMT: Parleman News has just published a story, with excellent photos, covering the diversity of both pro-Government and opposition protests in Isfahan.

1505 GMT: More on What Happened to Mousavi (see 1315 and 1345 GMT).

Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Kalemeh reports that all communication, including cell phones and internet connections, were shut down in the area surrounding the Farhangestan Academy of Art, where Mousavi’s office is located. Dozens of plainclothes bikers, supported by security forces, gathered in front of both entrances, chanting against Mousavi. One group attacked and entered the Academy of Arts.

The attackers backed off, but Mousavi’s car, which was planning to take the leader to the rally, was prevented from exiting the Academy by the heavy presence of security forces.

1425 GMT: Regime Goes After Rafsanjani?

Sharp-eyed readers will have noticed, in contrast to previous rallies, Hashemi Rafsanjani from our updates today. Once events have settled, our analysis will probably have to account for a Green movement that can no longer for backing from or even convergence with the former President.

That doesn't mean, however, that the regime is not keeping an eye on Rafsanjani. Fars News has just posted a lengthy article claiming that his youngest son, Yaser, was leading a group of 50-100 protesters at 7 Tir Square. Police dispersed them and arrested some of the "goons", who had damaged property. Mehdi Karroubi was forced to leave the square after seeing no one had turned up.

1350 GMT: Another Snap Analysis (see 0920 GMT).

Just before noon, I had drafted a fairly pessimistic reading of today's events, based on the rather limited turnout of "thousands" (compared to expectations), the security forces' push-back against Mehdi Karroubi, and the lack of news from other leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi. Marchers had been unable to achieve their primary goal of getting to major gathering points for a mass statement.

Some of my EA colleagues still hold this view, but I'm now withdrawing my draft. There are too many spontaneous and re-routed gatherings to say that the Green movement has been suppressed. And the footage that we are coming from outside Tehran, more than in previous rallies, indicates that there is a spread of the opposition.

Moreover, while the quantity of protestors may be less than expected, the strength of the sentiment is not to be underestimated. Despite all the regime's intimidation and threats, demonstrators are openly calling the Supreme Leader a "murderer" and stomping on his picture. Security forces may able to use tear gas and bullets in the air to keep them from the largest squares but they cannot remove them from the streets.

There is a half-empty argument that the spread of protest through the city shows the weakness of the Green movement, as security forces can risk moving from the key points to pursue demonstrators through the city. The half-full response is that those protestors --- whether fleeing or chanting or standing firm --- are being seen.

13 Aban is now 14 hours old.

1345 GMT: We've Found Mousavi. Mir Hossein Mousavi was not at home this morning. He is at the Farhangestan Cultural Center, completely surrounded by plainsclothes security forces. Some have attacked and entered the building, while others are outside chanting.

1315 GMT: And Where is Mir Hossein Mousavi? According to Rah-e-Sabz, he is under house arrest since early morning, surrounded by security forces.

1305 GMT: More on the Karroubi Incident (see 0930 and 1054 GMT).

Mehdi Karroubi got out of his car about 1,800 feet away from 7 Tir Square. About 300 feet from the square, security forces stood before Karroubi and stopped him from going further. Tear gas was fired at where Karroubi stood. One of his guards was hit on the head with a shell and was hospitalized. Karroubi suffered skin irritation and small burns from the tear gas and was forced to leave the area.

Karroubi returned to his car, which was attacked by security forces and badly damaged. The car finally moved towards Motahhari Avenue; along the way, Karroubi got out of the car many times to talk to people. (hat tip to Josh Shahryar)

1220 GMT: Too Many Good Clips. So we've started a second set of videos to add to our first collection.

1205 GMT: Another City? Josh Shahryar has reports of a rally in Isfahan with 2000-3000 people.

1150 GMT: Next Green Wave? Reports of protests and clashes throughout Tehran, including Vali-e Asr Avenue and Square, in front of the dormintory at the Polytechnic, Beh-Afareen Avenue, and Hafez Avenue. People are moving towards Vanak Square.

1123 GMT: Oops! It appears that the Iranian Labor News Agency was a collateral-damage victim when the Government cut off communications today. It seems that ILNA was unable to update its website for hours because of disruptions to Internet service around Enghelab Square.

1054 GMT: So What Happened to Karroubi? One of Mehdi Karroubi's sons, Mohammad Taghi Karroubi, has spoken to Radio Farda about this morning's events in 7 Tir Square. He says Karroubi was prevented from reaching the square by police forces. Two bodyguards were injured, as well as many other people, as police forces shot tear gas canisters at Karroubi and the surrouding crowd. (One of the bodyguards is still in hospital.) Karroubi's son also says that his father did not pack up and go home but joined people in other squares.

1045 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, which seems to be back to full speed, has a lengthy summary of the morning's events. It adds Tabriz and Arak to the list of cities where protests have occurred.

1025 GMT: Regrouping. After what appears to be the setback at 7 Tir Square, Mehdi Karroubi's Tagheer website has put out a denunciation of the "forces of dictatorship" of the police, security forces, and Revolutionary Guard who have confronted the "thousands of Iranian people" who protested this morning.

The statement appears, at this point, to be an admission that numbers of marchers have been relatively low ("thousands" rather than "tens of thousands"), putting the blame on the oppression of the regime.

1000 GMT: More on Government Strategy - Constrict and Shut Down Opposition. It appears Mowj-e-Sabz, the best source inside Iran for developments today, is running sporadically and slowly.

0940 GMT: The Guardian is reporting, from "a contact", more clashes in Ghaem Magham Farahani street near 7 Tir Square with some people covered in blood.

Meanwhile, Josh Shahryar passes on reports that many people were detained this morning and held in Al-Javad mosque in Tehran. We are trying to verify.

0930 GMT: The Karroubi Story. Mowj-e-Sabz is claiming that Mehdi Karroubi was beaten by "pro-coup forces and thugs" when he joined marchers near 7 Tir Square. We are treating this claim with great caution until we can get further information.

0920 GMT: Deep Breath Time.

We're assessing here at end of Act One of today. So far, the headline events are disappointing for the Green movement: Mehdi Karroubi showed up at 7 Tir Square but soon had to withdraw (whether because of risk of violence, threat of arrest, or another reason is unclear). Security forces have prevented large gatherings at other major sites. And there has no sign of, or even word from, figures like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami.

On the other hand, it is still relatively early in the day. Following patterns of earlier encounters, including Qods Day, the anti-Government movement will now move into a series of hit-and-run protests throughout Tehran. And there is already news of marches in other cities. That alone should keep attention on the demonstrations.

But will there be motivation and opportunity for the scattered marches to merge into one large symbolic presence, taking this day beyond 30 July and Qods Day and reviving the first post-election mass demonstrations?

0915 GMT: Blinkered Media (3). From EA correspondent: IRIB's domestic channel is no longer showing live footage of the pro-Government rally. An "expert" in the studio is blasting Western media for making up stories of anti-Government protests: "They picked up footage from [our] News Channel but implied through their own subtitles that something else is happening on the streets of Tehran. They are implying that anti-Revolutionary activity is happening on the streets of Tehran."

0910 GMT: Reports of protests on Khogare Shomali Avenue in Tehran.

0905 GMT: We're bouncing back from a computer problem to bring you up to speed. Four videos from today --- three from Tehran, one from Rasht --- are posted in a separate entry.

Mowj-e-Sabz is reporting a large protest in Shiraz. That makes three cities besides Tehran where marches have been confirmed: Shiraz, Mazandaran, and Rasht.

0835 GMT: EA correspondent Mr Smith checks in to give a snap analysis:

The Revolutionary Guard wasn't joking. As feared, the threats were real.

No sign of Mousavi or Khatami--- they have been cowed off the streets. However,
the Ferdowsi Square clashes are significant, as Ferdowsi is nowhere close to the ruote of Karroubi. That shows the spontaneity of these protests. They are basically there alone --- no leader in sight --- which shows the "movement from below" nature of this crisis.

0830 GMT: Reuters is first "Western" news service to report, "Mousavi supporters clash with police in Tehran". BBC English has followed.

0825 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz is also reporting on clashes at Ferdowsi Square. Josh Shahryar is reporting that Internet connections have been severely disrupted inside Iran. Cellphone service sporadic.

0810 GMT: The Green movement's Mowj-e-Sabz is now posting on the morning events. It has pieces on Karroubi's march to join the crowd, shooting "at the crowds" (we are treating this as an exaggeration of shots fired in the air), beatings and arrests, and the Mazandaran protest.

0800 GMT: Momentum. We are now treating the reports of Karroubi in the crowd as confirmed; a second good source is carrying the news.

And news is coming in of protests outside Tehran. We are treating news of a gathering in Mazandaran in northern Iran as probable, and there are unconfirmed claims of protests in Shiraz, Arak, and Isfahan.

0750 GMT: A Big Moment? It is being reported that Mehdi Karroubi is moving towards 7 Tir Square to join crowds.

0745 GMT: Report that "100s walk towards 7 Tir square holding up V signs. No anti-government chants. Cars honk in heavy traffic jams".

And Josh Shahryar writes that he has confirmation that some people have been beaten up in the clashes at Tehran University and near 7 Tir Square.

0740 GMT: As with previous marches, we are in a tricky early phase where it is hard to separate truth from rumour on the clashes between security forces and protestors. At this point, it appears that the forces are trying to disperse the crowds, using tear gas and possibly firing shots into the air.

0730 GMT: Press TV English have now joined Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for live coverage of the pro-Government rally outside the US Embassy.

0725 GMT: Earlier this morning security forces arrested Mohsen Amoozadeh, a member of youth wing of the Mousavi campaign.

0715 GMT: Government Strategy Unfolds. Reports of clashes at 7 Tir Square and between University students and security forces, as Government attempts to keep people away from the major gathering points.

0710 GMT: Latest from Twitter:

1. Security forces are completely alert at Ferdowsi and are equipped with combat helmet, batons and tear gas.
2. Forces have taken over Enghelab [Square] across from Ferdowsi.

0700 GMT: The Regime Strategy. OK, I think I have a read on how the Government is trying to shut down this day of opposition. Seal off major gathering points such as 7 Tir Square and bottle up groups like University students from reaching them. Broadcast non-stop footage of the pro-Government rally outside the US Embassy and hope no one notices the protests.

So far they seem to have had some success, but we're getting reports of "thousands" in locations from 7 Tir Square to Laleh Park and this day has only begun.

0645 GMT: Blinkered Media (2). CNN, to its credit, is highlighting the Iran story, but it is off to a bad start. The anchor started the 0610 GMT report with, "Demonstrations are underway to mark the anniversary of the US Embassy siege, and some anti-establishment protests are also expected." However, because CNN's correspondent, Shirzad Bozorgmehr, is outside the US Embassy, he sees only the thousands of students and police and army cadets chanting  "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" and singing "nationalistic slogans".

Bozorgmehr continues, "I see no sign of counter-demonstrations by the opposition on the streets at all," which is not surprising since the Green rallies are beginning in other parts of Tehran. And so he keeps saying, "So far they haven't shown up."

0640 GMT: Latest reports via Twitter:

1. Helicopter are flying, roads are still filled with anti-riot and security police. People have not fully formed groups yet.
2. Tehran University students are leaving the university by chanting "Down with Dictator". Riot police are blocking students from exiting.

0630 GMT: Blinkered Media (Part 1). And how is Press TV covering 13 Aban so far? Live shots of pro-Government crowd outside the US Embassy with voiceover, "Iran marks 30th anniversary of seizure with anti-US rallies". Not a word, unsurprisingly, on gatherings elsewhere in Tehran.

And then the channel switches to a 30-minute profile of Jundallah, the Baluch insurgent group responsible for last month's suicide bombing in southwestern Iran.

0625 GMT: Your Comic Media Highlight of the Day.

I am not making this up. When we started blogging this morning, Press TV's English service was broadcasting a documentary called "Electile Dysfunction".

For a moment, I thought Iranian state media had decided, belatedly, to consider the incidents on and after the 12 June Presidential election. But only for a moment --- this was an old documentary on the corruptions, biases, and inequalities of the US electoral process.

0620 GMT: Reports that people starting to gather in 7 Tir Square. Also reported that Sharif University students are moving towards Tehran University in center of the city.

0600 GMT: We have posted the text of President Obama's statement on Iran. At first glance, it is extremely clever: Obama turns the history of the 1979 Embassy takeover into his desire to "move beyond this past and seek a relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran based upon mutual interests and mutual respect".

Obama then moves to the current nuclear talks --- "if Iran lives up to the obligations that every nation has, it will have a path to a more prosperous and productive relationship with the international community" --- but it is his shift to the situation inside Iran that is most significant. Having already declared, "We do not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs," he concludes:

Iran must choose. We have heard for thirty years what the Iranian government is against; the question, now, is what kind of future it is for. The American people have great respect for the people of Iran and their rich history. The world continues to bear witness to their powerful calls for justice, and their courageous pursuit of universal rights. It is time for the Iranian government to decide whether it wants to focus on the past, or whether it will make the choices that will open the door to greater opportunity, prosperity, and justice for its people.

To my knowledge, this is the first direct comment by a high-level US official, let alone Obama, on Iran's political situation since June.

0555 GMT: Initial reports from Iranian sources via Twitter:

1. There are reports of heavy anti-riot police and plainclothes present in 7 Tir [Square in Tehran].
2. Family friend from Shiraz: Military and Police surrounding TV and radio station.
3. All streets ending to former US Embassy are closed.

0550 GMT: EA correspondent Josh Shahryar has written a special analysis for 13 Aban, considering the Green movement in the context of the 1989 risings in Eastern Europe and China: "Fictions and Realities of 'Revolution'".

0530 GMT: Good morning.

It is 9 a.m., local time, in Tehran, and we are in place for a day which --- from my distant perception --- has produced the greatest excitement and highest expectation since early in the post-election crisis. As an EA reader summarised yesterday, putting 13 Aban in the context of the last mass march in Iran:

On Qods Day [18 September] we were full of fear and doubt. I personally didn’t know how big the crowd will be, we went out and throw our hearts at the sea.

Tommorw I have no doubts that there will be masses on the street. Tomorrow I have no fear when I march, for I have faced fear in the face, and won on Qods Day.

Only a fool would predict what is to unfold, but my fool's sense is that this gathering will surpass even the hundreds of thousands who emerged in various marches and gatherings on Qods Day. In the last six weeks, the Government has tried and failed to blunt, let alone crush the opposition movement. Mehdi Karroubi's symbolic appearance at the Iran Media Fair, Mir Hossein Mousavi's statements with renewed vigor and hope, the building university demonstrations, and just the amount of information and video reaching us and the world: all support our reader. Hope accompanies and possibly trumps fear, desires for the future trump resignation and passivity.

Today is 13 Aban.