The Latest from Iran (26 November): Corridors of Conflict

2110 GMT: The White House has put out the following statement:

The United States is deeply concerned about reports of additional charges facing Kian Tajbakhsh (see 1200 GMT), an Iranian-American scholar who has been detained in Iran without access to an independent lawyer since July 9, 2009. The charges against Mr. Tajbakhsh are baseless, and his original sentence on October 20 was an outrage. The Iranian government cannot earn the respect of the international community when it violates universal rights, and continues to imprison innocent people. We call on the Islamic Republic of Iran to release Mr. Tajbakhsh, and to respect the human rights of those within its borders.

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1945 GMT: Seizing the Peace Prize. EA readers have now picked up on the incident, building since yesterday, that Iranian authorities have seized the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to lawyer and rights activist Shirin Ebadi.

The possibility of seizure has been around for months, as the Iranian Government claimed that the award was taxable. (Ebadi maintains that prizes are explicitly excluded from taxation under Iranian fiscal law.) What seems to have elevated the story is the manner of the seizure, with the taking of the medal and prize diploma from a safe-deposit box.

The immediate diplomatic effect seems to have the provocation of Norwegian anger and a promise to elevate the human rights issue.. The Iranian charge d'affaires in Oslo was summoned to a meeting Wednesday with Norwegian State Secretary Gry Larsen. Foreign Minister Store stated, "During the meeting with the Iranian chargé d’affaires, we made it clear that Norway will continue to engage in international efforts to protect human-rights defenders and will follow the situation in Iran closely."

1720 GMT: The Big Push. The Turkish effort to get some movement from Iran on the nuclear issue (see 1600 GMT) accompanies "encouragement" by Moscow:

Russia urged Iran to cooperate with the international community as the United Nations’ atomic agency warned it had hit a “dead end” over whether the Islamic republic is developing a nuclear weapon. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov discussed the nuclear issue in Moscow with Ambassador Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi at the Iranian diplomat’s request, the Foreign Ministry said on its Web site today: “The Russian side especially underscored the necessity to observe the agreements in principle reached in talks in Geneva."

1620 GMT: The Islamic Republic News Agency is reporting that Mir Hossein Mousavi's brother-in-law Shapour Kazemi, freed earlier today (see 1320 GMT), has received a one-year prison sentence and is free on bail while the verdict is appealed.

Leading reformist Behzad Nabavi, still seriously ill, has been sentenced to six years.

1600 GMT: The Turkish Mediation. It's not looking good in Vienna, but Turkey is still trying to get an enrichment deal:

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu [had] phone conversations with foreign ministers of several countries over Iran's nuclear program. Davutoglu spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, diplomats said on Thursday

1530 GMT: And From the Other Side. While Mohammad El Baradei's statement is being headlined by "Western" media as proof that Iran should be cast into the darkness, here's the take from Press TV: "El Baradei: No diversion in Iran nuclear program". Unfortunately for Iran's state media, there's nothing --- nothing --- to support that declaration, and Press has to quote the opposing accounts: "There has been no movement on remaining issues of concern which need to be clarified for the agency to verify the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program."

1405 GMT: The non-Iranian media are all over the purported statement of Mohammad El Baradei at this morning's International Atomic Energy Agency meeting, stating that examination of Iran's nuclear programme is at a "dead end" because of non-cooperation from Tehran and that he is disappointed at the Iranian modification of his proposal for third-party enrichment of uranium.

To be honest, I'm being very careful with this. El Baradei's statement came out quickly --- very quickly --- from the meeting, which makes me think that certain diplomats are anxious to get his negative views across the Internet and into newspapers and broadcasts. I still think, pending further developments from Vienna, that the best measure of the IAEA head's current analysis is his interview with Reuters yesterday.

1330 GMT: We've posted the BBC version of the documentary on the death of Neda Agha Soltan.

1320 GMT: Shapour Kazemi, the brother of Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard, has been released on bail after more than five months in detention.

1200 GMT: Tajbakhsh the Pawn? As part of the tough front being taken this week against the US --- yesterday's speech by the Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad's posturing, the threats of the Revolutionary Guard --- the Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh has been brought back into Revolutionary Court on new charges of "spying for the George Soros foundation", the Open Society Institute. Tajbakhsh is also accused of sending e-mails to the Gulf 2000 network (a discussion list which includes two EA correspondents as members).

Tajbakhsh is being held in Evin Prison in solitary confinement.

1115 GMT: Tehran's Tough Talk on Nukes. As International Atomic Energy Agency delegates consider a resolution on Iran's nuclear programme, the Iranian ambassador, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, has issued a pre-emptive warning. Iran will respond to any condemnation by reducing co-operation "to the minimum we are legally obliged".

Translated, that's a threat to break off the talks on enrichment, as the resolution will "damage the currently constructive atmosphere" and "have long-term consequences".

1020 GMT: We've just posted an analysis, based on signals in the US media over the last 48 hours, "Has 'Green Reform' Disappeared in Washington?"

0950 GMT: Fighting the Menace Within. Another sign of the regime's disquiet. The Deputy Minister of Intelligence and former commander of the Basiji militia, Hossein Taeb, has launched another attack on Hashemi Rafsanjani through Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi.

Taeb told a Basiji seminar:

We found an espionage gang in 1992 and 1995 that met in a luxury house in Tehran and trained prostitutes for state officials as a way to corrupt them. One of the ring leaders was Mehdi Hashemi, Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani’s son who was immediately arrested. But following influence peddling by his father, some intelligence officials were transferred to other departments and Mehdi and his gang were set free.

Girls and women prostitutes that worked in that ring were active in Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s presidential election campaign headquarters. The plan of the reformists was that Mousavi would become president while Khatami would become leader and so the regime would collapse.

Taeb advocated arrest of the leaders of the reform movement saying that "there would be no consequences in the country" if they were detained.

0945 GMT: More than 40 students at Khaje Nasir University, the site of ongoing protests before, on, and since 13 Aban (4 November), have been targeted for possible disciplinary action; ten have been summoned to hearings on a variety of charges.

0915 GMT: Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader is asserting his authority with his own global tour, albeit through a statement rather than international jet-setting. His office has just put out the lengthy summary of a message to Iranian pilgrims on the Hajj to Mecca:

Palestine is under the evil dominion of Zionism in increasing suffering and starvation; Al-Aqsa Mosque is in great and serious danger. Oppressed people of Gaza are still in hardest condition after that unexampled genocide. Under the brogan of occupiers, Afghanistan is stricken by a new tragedy every single day. Insecurity in Iraq has deprived people of peace and comfort. Fratricide in Yemen has created a new tragedy in the heart of an Islamic nation.

Muslims think about recent years of devilry and wars, explosion and terrors in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, and where they have been designed. Why did these nations not witness tragedy before Western armies entered and dominated the region?

And so on until Ayatollah Khamenei gets to the political heart of his message: "Enemies have been defeated in Islamic Iran. Thirty years of tricks and concpiracy such as coups, war, sanctions, propaganda, and, most recently, [their] pompous [intervention in the] election were the scene of their defeat."

0900 GMT: A later start this morning, as we catch up with the news and post an analysis --- based on discussions over the last 24 hours --- of problems facing the Green movement and the regime, as well as the difficulties for US foreign policy.

On the surface, of course, President Ahmadinejad will say all is well. He continued his I'm a World Leader, Get Me Out of Tehran tour on Wednesday with the refuge of discussions in Venezuela. President Hugo Chavez gave warm support, agreements were signed, and Ahmadinejad struck a defiant pose: "Today the people of Venezuela and Iran, friends and brothers in the trench warfare against imperialism, are resisting....[We will] stand together until the end."

However, if Ahmadinejad is using the trip to claim leadership, his absence from Tehran is ample opportunity for others to challenge that authority. The reformist Rooz Online gleefully documents more evidence, in state media as well as private media, of "whispers" in Parliament against the President. The questions so prominently raised last week over not only the Government's economic programme but also mismanagement and corruption are not dissipating; to the contrary, the lack of apparent answers is fuelling more grumbling and discontent.

Latest Iran Video: Protest at Khaje Nasir University (22 November)

Students of the technical faculty of Khaje Nasir University in Tehran protesting against the arrest of two student activists of this university without any clear charges:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BElowJvWVhs[/youtube]

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2125 GMT: Activists on Twitter are reporting the arrest of blogger/journalist Sasan Aghaei.

1940 GMT: Karroubi's Latest Letter. Mehdi Karroubi has written to Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie and Habib-allah Askaroladi, the secretary general of the conservative Mo'talefe party, posting the letter on his Tagheer website.

The letter is a renewal of Karroubi's campaign for the truth on reports of abuse of detainees, responding to the attempts of Mohseni-Ejeie and Askaroladi to cast doubt on his claims and motives. He repeats his earlier account of meetings with the three-member judiciary panel that was appointed to consider the charges. In particular, he states that, while he raised the case of Saeedeh Pouraghai but warned that it might be false. (The claims that Pouraghai had been raped and killed by security forces are now discounted. Some believe the case was "manufactured" by the regime so it would discredit the opposition when the falsehood emerged.)

Karroubi also challenges Askaroladi's claims that the Green movement is financed by millions of dollars from the US Government and demands that Mousavi and Karroubi "must be dealt with".

1740 GMT: The Visits Begin. Former President Mohammad Khatami has visited Mohammad Ali Abtahi in his home.

1625 GMT: Rumour of Day "Mortazavi in Evin Prison". Norooz claims that Saeed Mortazavi, who was Tehran's Prosecutor General in the early part of the post-election crisis, has been spotted in prison garb at Evin Prison. The website claims that Mortazavi has not been seen in public in two months and raises the possibility that he will disappear via "suicide", just like Kahrizak prison doctor Ramin Pourandarjan. (Norooz also sees parallels with the case of Said Emami, the intelligence operative and deputy minister found dead in his cell a decade ago. He was blamed for a series of murders after his death.)

1610 GMT: Abtahi Freed. The picture of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi provides happy confirmation of his release on bail after 160 days in detention (see 0735 and1405 GMT).



Abtahi has also posted on his blog. He says he will soon return to updating the blog on a daily basis. He hopes for the freedom of his fellow inmates, especially Abdollah Ramezanzadeh and Mohsen Safai-Farahani, to whom he bade a tearful farewell this morning.

1525 GMT: Economic Pressure. Following up our initial item this morning on the pressures on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (0735 GMT), Presidential candidate and secretary of the Expediency Council, Mohsen Rezaei , has criticised the President's proposed legislation on subsidies and taxes. “As a result of the new law, the effect of the global economy on the domestic economy will be more than before,” Rezaei wrote to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

Rezaei suggested the formation of an independent council of financial experts to study the impact of the bill on the lives of Iranians.

1520 GMT: Today's University Protests. There has been chatter throughout the day of clashes between students and security at Khaje Nasir University, and a short video has been posted of the demonstration at Tehran University.

1505 GMT: More Tehran Signals on the Nuke Deal. Ali Ashar Soltanieh, Iran's Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, has reiterated his comments (see 0955 GMT) about Iran's desire to negotiate an enrichment deal, provided it keeps uranium within the country. “We are ready for talks with a positive approach, but the main issue is a guarantee for the timely supply of fuel for Iran's medical needs." Soltanieh referred to Iran's grievances with France and Russia over delays and failures to fulfil previous contracts: “Considering Iran's lack of confidence towards the West regarding the past nuclear activities, we need to have these guarantees."

1405 GMT: Abtahi Update. Former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who was sentenced to a six-year prison term yesterday (see 0735 GMT), has been released on a bail of 700 million tomans (about $700,000) while the sentence is appealed.

1035 GMT: The Election was Most Fair. Really. Fars News offers acres of space to Ali Zakani, a member of the six-member Parliamentary committee that "investigated" the Presidential election, to defend the outcome and the committee's proceedings.

Zakani details meetings with Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohsen Rezaei and with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. All of this is to establish that the election was fair and to indicate that any "fraud" is on the part of those challenging President Ahmadinejad's legitimacy.

0955 GMT: The Government Wants a Nuclear Deal. Can't be a clearer signal than this:

Iran's ambassador to the UN nuclear watchdog [International Atomic Energy Agency] says over 200 hospitals in the country urgently need higher-enriched uranium. As a timely reminder that obtaining higher-enriched uranium is a matter of great urgency for Iran, Ali-Asghar Soltaniyeh said that the fuel is required for the Tehran nuclear reactor, which is designed to produce radioisotopes used by Iranian hospitals for medical treatment.

He warned that if Iran's proposal to purchase the fuel from abroad falls through, the country would have no choice but to enrich uranium to the required level of 20 percent...."We need the fuel because more than 200 hospitals depend on it."

o935 GMT: A Clerical Putsch? We held off on noting this story, but as a sharp-eyed EA reader has raised it.... Rooz Online summarises reports circulating in Iran:

Following the escalation of protests by Iran’s senior ayatollahs against the regime, some members of the Qom Seminary Teachers Association (the most important organization of clerics affiliated with the regime) are planning to present a new list of “grand ayatollahs” under the supervision of Mohammad Yazdi, Ahmad Jannati and Mesbah Yazdi....

According to rumors, the new list of grand ayatollahs will include people such as Jafar Sobhani, Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, Khoshvaght, and a number of other ayatollahs approved by the regime. Credible reports indicate that prominent grand ayatollahs such as Montazeri and [Bayat] Zanjani will not have a place on the list....[Nor will] Dastgheib.

I still think the key word in the story is "rumors". The significance of the article is that it shows the concern of the regime and its supporters over the ongoing (and possibly escalating) resistance from Qom. A radical change to the list of Grand Ayatollahs, especially when it is clearly based on political rather than religious considerations, is likely to stoke that resistance.

0740 GMT: A depressing end to Saturday for the opposition movement, as Mowj-e-Sabz claimed that former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi has been sentenced to six years in prison. Abtahi, as one of the highest-profile detainees, was seen by the Government as a potential asset for propaganda. His televised "confession" was one of the low-lights of the first Tehran trial, and the regime even tried (briefly) to have Abtahi blog from prison to offset criticisms about the conditions of detainees.

Now it appears that the Government has given up on that use of Abtahi, and it has also decided that the advantage lies in keeping him in jail rather than extending a hand to the reformists through his release.

0735 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has always cut a confident, even cocky figure. And when challenged, he fights back.

So it's no surprise that the President would "go big" with a tour covering five days in five countries: Brazil, Venezuela, and Bolivia in South America and Senega land Gambia in Africa. He can finally project himself as a world leader, having been shut out by almost every head of state in the first three months after the disputed election. He can play on the assured support of Venezuela for Iran's nuclear programme and foreign policy. He can present Iran's expanding influence with the African leg of the trip. And no doubt there will be more than a few words on oil and natural gas, as well as the signing of commercial agreements.

Don't let this fool you, however. Ahmadinejad's travels are also a deliberate distraction from the homefront. For all the questions over the future course of the opposition, for all the "busted flush" of the National Unity Plan, the President has not been able to nail down a secure position.

The photographs of Ahmadinejad's visit to Tabriz are more than symbolic. Whether or not most Iranians support the Green movement, they are not turning out in the 63% claimed by the President in the June vote. The conservative/principlist politicians are rumbling again in Parliament, especially over Ahmadinejad's economic proposals, and the clerics in Qom are discussing and planning.

The President returns from his journey at the end of November. At that point, it will be just over a week to the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December).

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1900 GMT: An EA source tips us off to an on-line presentation from last month, "Debating Engagement: A Critical Dialogue on Iran and the Peace Movement".

1820 GMT: Iran's state Arabic-language satellite service Al-Alam is on air again after the French company Eutelsat agreed to carry its programmes. Al-Alam's former providers, the Saudi- and Egypt-based Arabsat and Nilesat, withdrew on 3 November.

1620 GMT: Families of political prisoners have gathered for the third time in front of offices of Iran's judiciary, calling for the release of all political prisoners and demanding the administration of law and justice for all. The families met representatives of the judiciary but failed to get an audience with the head of the judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.

At the end of this gathering, the families asked for the immediate release of those arrested during prayer and of innocent women. They called for “conducting public fair trials”, “allowing the prisoners to have the right of choosing their lawyers and naming those who are obstructing this right”, “identifying those who are putting pressure on some of the post-election prisoners’ families”, and “expediting court hearings and immediate release of those imprisoned with reduced bail".

1545 GMT: Punishing the Protesters. Pictures of orders banning students from their dormitories are now circulating on the Internet.

1535 GMT: For My Next Trick, I Will Solve Traffic Jams. This is either political genius or massive overconfidence: in the midst of conflicts over the economy, the nuclear issues, and his own legitimacy, President Ahmadinejad has declared his urgent priority to clear Tehran's roads: "We have solutions for Tehran and I believe I will soon have to personally intervene in Tehran's issues because I see that the traffic situation is making our citizens suffer."

Go a bit deeper, and you'll find a political battle which is far more than Mahmoud jumping into the middle of the Modarres Expressway to direct traffic. This is another play for power against an opponent within the establishment, in this case, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer-Qalibaf:

Ahmadinejad went on to say that his administration plans to take over the control of the Tehran Metro Company from the municipality. The remarks came as the Tehran Municipality and government are in disagreement about providing the capital's subway system with state subsidies. The president also called on...Qalibaf and the Tehran City Council to agree with shifting the management of the metro to the government.

1110 GMT: Responsible Journalism? Marc Champion of The Wall Street Journal offers the dramatic story, "Revolutionary Guard Tightens Security Grip":

Seven different agencies have now been subordinated to...the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, gutting the intelligence ministry of power....The seven agencies include the old intelligence directorate of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as its cyberdefense unit; the intelligence directorate of the Basij; parts of the now-gutted intelligence ministry; Mr. Khamenei's own intelligence unit, known as Office 101; and the plainclothes units and Tehran Revolutionary Guard headquarters tasked with controlling street protests in the capital.he seven agencies include the old intelligence directorate of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as its cyberdefense unit; the intelligence directorate of the Basij; parts of the now-gutted intelligence ministry; Mr. Khamenei's own intelligence unit, known as Office 101; and the plainclothes units and Tehran Revolutionary Guard headquarters tasked with controlling street protests in the capital.

Pretty serious news. Only problem is that Champion's information, initially cited as "interviews with Iranian analysts and opposition figures, along with recent government announcements", turns out to be a single source: Maryam Rajavi of the opposition group National Council for Resistance in Iran.

At no point does Champion note that the NCRI is the political arm of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, the group which for 30 years has sought the overthrow of the Iranian regime through violence and assassinations (he does put the qualification, "The NCRI is listed in the U.S. as a terrorist organization, though not in Europe). And nowhere does he notes that the NCRI --- as the group that he says is "responsible for exposing much of Iran's controversial nuclear-fuel program" --- has also been challenged over the years for providing distorted and inaccurate information.

1100 GMT: More University Protests (see 1000 GMT). Video has come in of yesterday's protest at Khaje Nasir University, where demonstrations have been occurring on a daily basis for more than a week.

1015 GMT: So Much for the Lull --- Ahmadi's Nuclear Push. Press TV summarises President Ahmadinejad's televised interview on Wednesday night as a claim that "the West has retreated in its nuclear dispute with Tehran, as it is no longer talking of suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment activities".

Ahmadinejad, declared, "We have now entered a stage of cooperation. At the moment, one of the key issues is Iran's participation in projects such as the international [nuclear] fuel bank or reactor and plant construction. There is no more talk of suspension. We have reached a stage where we are cooperating, on a high level, with other countries that have the technology through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)."

Interpretation? This is the clear indication that the President doesn't just want continued nuclear discussions; he's looking for a deal. He is setting up the presentation that an agreement on enrichment in a third country, accompanied by acceptance of Iran into international projects, will be a great "victory" with the West bowing down and recognising Tehran's as a nuclear power. This would be a triumph of Iran's enemies, as "Israelis and a number of Western countries are angry about [the discussions]. They are trying to prevent us from forming cooperation. They want the talks to break down and end in dispute."

So on to the next questions. How do Ahmadinejad's opponents, not just within the reformist movement but within the establishment (Ali Larijani, the ball's in your court) react? Where is Hashemi Rafsanjani? And what does the Supreme Leader say/fail to say in response?

1000 GMT: University Protests. There is now video confirmation of a demonstration at Elm-o-Sanat University (Iran University of Science and Technology) in Tehran. HomyLafayette adds the observation that http://www.iust.ac.ir/ is considered a base of support for President Ahmadinejad and the regime and that the Supreme Leader maintains an office on the campus.

0900 GMT: Catching up on the morning headlines in Iranian state media, it appears they have uncovered a nasty plot to overthrow the Iranian system coming out of the revolutionary hotbed of Cleveland, Ohio. We've got the story.

0745 GMT: A quiet start to the day. There is little political movement from either the Government or the opposition. It appears that President Ahmadinejad's immediate priority is to get Parliamentary approval of his proposals for subsidy reform, with the internal tensions over nuclear talks put aside over the last 48 hours.

Meanwhile, surprisingly little follow-up on the Mousavi message on Monday to Jamaran. I am uncertain as to whether this is because knowledge of it inside Iran has been restricted, because the statement has not sparked as much interest as Mousavi's previous declaration, or for another reason. Mehdi Karroubi has been relatively muted in recent days, and other reformist groups have been curbed in their public positions because of Government pressure.

That leaves, it appears, the simmering protest on university campuses to prop up interest and spirits. And, however quiet it may be for the moment, there is always the beacon of 16 Azar (7 December).

Latest Iran Video: Khaje Nasir University Hunger Strike (10 November)

Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban & from Today (8-9 November)

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[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3Vu9wDL7W4[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K97Q61A4OGg[/youtube]