The Latest from Iran (26 November): Corridors of Conflict

2110 GMT: The White House has put out the following statement:

The United States is deeply concerned about reports of additional charges facing Kian Tajbakhsh (see 1200 GMT), an Iranian-American scholar who has been detained in Iran without access to an independent lawyer since July 9, 2009. The charges against Mr. Tajbakhsh are baseless, and his original sentence on October 20 was an outrage. The Iranian government cannot earn the respect of the international community when it violates universal rights, and continues to imprison innocent people. We call on the Islamic Republic of Iran to release Mr. Tajbakhsh, and to respect the human rights of those within its borders.

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Iran : Why Keep On Analysing a “Dysfunctional” Government?
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The Latest from Iran (25 November): Larijani Talks Tough

1945 GMT: Seizing the Peace Prize. EA readers have now picked up on the incident, building since yesterday, that Iranian authorities have seized the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to lawyer and rights activist Shirin Ebadi.

The possibility of seizure has been around for months, as the Iranian Government claimed that the award was taxable. (Ebadi maintains that prizes are explicitly excluded from taxation under Iranian fiscal law.) What seems to have elevated the story is the manner of the seizure, with the taking of the medal and prize diploma from a safe-deposit box.

The immediate diplomatic effect seems to have the provocation of Norwegian anger and a promise to elevate the human rights issue.. The Iranian charge d'affaires in Oslo was summoned to a meeting Wednesday with Norwegian State Secretary Gry Larsen. Foreign Minister Store stated, "During the meeting with the Iranian chargé d’affaires, we made it clear that Norway will continue to engage in international efforts to protect human-rights defenders and will follow the situation in Iran closely."

1720 GMT: The Big Push. The Turkish effort to get some movement from Iran on the nuclear issue (see 1600 GMT) accompanies "encouragement" by Moscow:

Russia urged Iran to cooperate with the international community as the United Nations’ atomic agency warned it had hit a “dead end” over whether the Islamic republic is developing a nuclear weapon. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov discussed the nuclear issue in Moscow with Ambassador Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi at the Iranian diplomat’s request, the Foreign Ministry said on its Web site today: “The Russian side especially underscored the necessity to observe the agreements in principle reached in talks in Geneva."

1620 GMT: The Islamic Republic News Agency is reporting that Mir Hossein Mousavi's brother-in-law Shapour Kazemi, freed earlier today (see 1320 GMT), has received a one-year prison sentence and is free on bail while the verdict is appealed.

Leading reformist Behzad Nabavi, still seriously ill, has been sentenced to six years.

1600 GMT: The Turkish Mediation. It's not looking good in Vienna, but Turkey is still trying to get an enrichment deal:

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu [had] phone conversations with foreign ministers of several countries over Iran's nuclear program. Davutoglu spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, diplomats said on Thursday

1530 GMT: And From the Other Side. While Mohammad El Baradei's statement is being headlined by "Western" media as proof that Iran should be cast into the darkness, here's the take from Press TV: "El Baradei: No diversion in Iran nuclear program". Unfortunately for Iran's state media, there's nothing --- nothing --- to support that declaration, and Press has to quote the opposing accounts: "There has been no movement on remaining issues of concern which need to be clarified for the agency to verify the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program."

1405 GMT: The non-Iranian media are all over the purported statement of Mohammad El Baradei at this morning's International Atomic Energy Agency meeting, stating that examination of Iran's nuclear programme is at a "dead end" because of non-cooperation from Tehran and that he is disappointed at the Iranian modification of his proposal for third-party enrichment of uranium.

To be honest, I'm being very careful with this. El Baradei's statement came out quickly --- very quickly --- from the meeting, which makes me think that certain diplomats are anxious to get his negative views across the Internet and into newspapers and broadcasts. I still think, pending further developments from Vienna, that the best measure of the IAEA head's current analysis is his interview with Reuters yesterday.

1330 GMT: We've posted the BBC version of the documentary on the death of Neda Agha Soltan.

1320 GMT: Shapour Kazemi, the brother of Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard, has been released on bail after more than five months in detention.

1200 GMT: Tajbakhsh the Pawn? As part of the tough front being taken this week against the US --- yesterday's speech by the Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad's posturing, the threats of the Revolutionary Guard --- the Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh has been brought back into Revolutionary Court on new charges of "spying for the George Soros foundation", the Open Society Institute. Tajbakhsh is also accused of sending e-mails to the Gulf 2000 network (a discussion list which includes two EA correspondents as members).

Tajbakhsh is being held in Evin Prison in solitary confinement.

1115 GMT: Tehran's Tough Talk on Nukes. As International Atomic Energy Agency delegates consider a resolution on Iran's nuclear programme, the Iranian ambassador, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, has issued a pre-emptive warning. Iran will respond to any condemnation by reducing co-operation "to the minimum we are legally obliged".

Translated, that's a threat to break off the talks on enrichment, as the resolution will "damage the currently constructive atmosphere" and "have long-term consequences".

1020 GMT: We've just posted an analysis, based on signals in the US media over the last 48 hours, "Has 'Green Reform' Disappeared in Washington?"

0950 GMT: Fighting the Menace Within. Another sign of the regime's disquiet. The Deputy Minister of Intelligence and former commander of the Basiji militia, Hossein Taeb, has launched another attack on Hashemi Rafsanjani through Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi.

Taeb told a Basiji seminar:

We found an espionage gang in 1992 and 1995 that met in a luxury house in Tehran and trained prostitutes for state officials as a way to corrupt them. One of the ring leaders was Mehdi Hashemi, Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani’s son who was immediately arrested. But following influence peddling by his father, some intelligence officials were transferred to other departments and Mehdi and his gang were set free.

Girls and women prostitutes that worked in that ring were active in Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s presidential election campaign headquarters. The plan of the reformists was that Mousavi would become president while Khatami would become leader and so the regime would collapse.

Taeb advocated arrest of the leaders of the reform movement saying that "there would be no consequences in the country" if they were detained.

0945 GMT: More than 40 students at Khaje Nasir University, the site of ongoing protests before, on, and since 13 Aban (4 November), have been targeted for possible disciplinary action; ten have been summoned to hearings on a variety of charges.

0915 GMT: Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader is asserting his authority with his own global tour, albeit through a statement rather than international jet-setting. His office has just put out the lengthy summary of a message to Iranian pilgrims on the Hajj to Mecca:

Palestine is under the evil dominion of Zionism in increasing suffering and starvation; Al-Aqsa Mosque is in great and serious danger. Oppressed people of Gaza are still in hardest condition after that unexampled genocide. Under the brogan of occupiers, Afghanistan is stricken by a new tragedy every single day. Insecurity in Iraq has deprived people of peace and comfort. Fratricide in Yemen has created a new tragedy in the heart of an Islamic nation.

Muslims think about recent years of devilry and wars, explosion and terrors in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, and where they have been designed. Why did these nations not witness tragedy before Western armies entered and dominated the region?

And so on until Ayatollah Khamenei gets to the political heart of his message: "Enemies have been defeated in Islamic Iran. Thirty years of tricks and concpiracy such as coups, war, sanctions, propaganda, and, most recently, [their] pompous [intervention in the] election were the scene of their defeat."

0900 GMT: A later start this morning, as we catch up with the news and post an analysis --- based on discussions over the last 24 hours --- of problems facing the Green movement and the regime, as well as the difficulties for US foreign policy.

On the surface, of course, President Ahmadinejad will say all is well. He continued his I'm a World Leader, Get Me Out of Tehran tour on Wednesday with the refuge of discussions in Venezuela. President Hugo Chavez gave warm support, agreements were signed, and Ahmadinejad struck a defiant pose: "Today the people of Venezuela and Iran, friends and brothers in the trench warfare against imperialism, are resisting....[We will] stand together until the end."

However, if Ahmadinejad is using the trip to claim leadership, his absence from Tehran is ample opportunity for others to challenge that authority. The reformist Rooz Online gleefully documents more evidence, in state media as well as private media, of "whispers" in Parliament against the President. The questions so prominently raised last week over not only the Government's economic programme but also mismanagement and corruption are not dissipating; to the contrary, the lack of apparent answers is fuelling more grumbling and discontent.

The Latest from Iran (25 November): Larijani Talks Tough

2030 GMT: El Baradei's Clues. Want to know the state of the nuclear talks with Iran? The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, offers all the necessary hints in an interview with Reuters.

1. Iran's "swap" proposal, exchanging 20% enriched uranium for Iranian 3.5% stock inside the country, is not acceptable. "They are ready to put material under IAEA control on an (Iranian) island in the Persian Gulf. But the whole idea as I explained to them, to defuse this crisis, is to take the material out of Iran. I do not think (Iran's counter-proposal) will work as far as the West is concerned."

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To back his line, El Baradei is playing up uncertainty over the state of Iran's nuclear plans, pivoting on the controversy over the second enrichment plant at Fordoo: "You cannot really use it for civilian purposes. It's too small to produce fuel for a civilian reactor." So while the IAEA has "no indication that there are other undeclared facilities in Iran" or "any information that such facilities exist", Fordoo's existence raises questions about a wider Iranian programme --- questions that El Baradei can use (or create) to push back the "swap" initiative.

Iranian state media has already reacted: "IAEA fails to address Iran nuclear swap concerns". But this pretty much puts an end to Tehran's offer: if El Baradei won't back it, then it's almost certain none of the "5+1" powers will be offering any support.

2. But the talks are still very much alive, resting on a "third-party enrichment" arrangement. The plan would be one in which the IAEA would "take custody and control of the material. We've offered also to have the material in Turkey, a country which has the trust of all the parties.... I am open (to Iranian amendments) if they have any additional guarantees that do not involve keeping the material in Iran."

3. So, for now, El Baradei does not see a move to aggressive sanctions: UN resolutions are mainly "expressions of frustration".

Summary? Ball's in your court, President Ahmadinejad (and Supreme Leader Khamenei). Don't knock it back --- take a modified "third-party enrichment" offer and everyone will be happy.

1955 GMT: The Khatami and Mousavi Statements. Former President Mohammad Khatami has also issued a statement for Basiji week. He used the occasion to criticise both the specific oppression of dissenters --- "These days, honest and truthful people are being oppressed and worse than that all these are being done in the name of Islam and the revolution" --- and the general mismanagement of the Government --- "An unbiased view is that all areas of industry, agriculture, foreign affairs and different managements are in bad shape and all indexes have decline and the country has fallen behind." He continued to emphasise the hope for "a change in the country’s atmosphere" through an adherence to the Constitution".

And to summarise the Mousavi statement (see 1610 GMT): "What shaped Basij in the beginning of the revolution was pure ideas not weapons and military power that raised it to high statures....The goal of Imam Khomeini in creating Basij was to include all or at least a significant majority of the public by not belonging to a particular idea."

Now, however, the Basij "take orders with closed eyes and break tthe arms and legs of their religious brothers and sisters". They need to recognise that those who use lies as "their main political tactic...Following these people is not the righteous path."

At the end of the statement, Mousavi seizes the nationalist mantle and turns the charge of "foreign intervention" against the regime: If terrorising people succeeds, "the country will fall into the hands of foreign invaders".

1905 GMT: Here is Why There Won't Be Tough Sanctions. "The Chinese refiner Sinopec has signed a memorandum of understanding with the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company to invest $6.5 billion for building oil refineries in Iran. It is predicted that the two sides will close the deal in the next two months."

1850 GMT: Iranians' Civil Rights Violated (outside Iran). Forgive me for finding this story ironic as wel as serious: "An Iranian NGO (non-government organisation RahPouyan-e-DadGostar) is in the process of logging a legal complaint against the US over its violation of the rights of Iranian detainees."

Without dwelling on the case of Kian Tajbakhsh, the Iranian-American recently jailed for 15 years after a televised "confession" over his supposed role in velvet revolution, I'll note the possible significance that several of the 11 Iranians listed in the report have been connected to possible Israeli and/or US plots to abduct individuals connected with Iran's nuclear programme.

1840 GMT: A month after Iran's Ministry of Education announced a plan to permanently assign a member of the clergy to each school to “fulfill the cultural needs” of students, a religious official has stated that management of Iranian public schools is being transferred to seminaries. Ali Zolelm, the head of the Council of Cooperation between Ministry of Education and the seminaries, saying that seminars have already taken over school management in several provinces and the city of Qom.

1740 GMT: Larijani Keeps Up the Pressure. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, speaking in Tehran, has launched another assault on Iran's nuclear talks with the US, claiming that Washington wanted to deceive the Iranian Government:

Analyzing the U.S. (role) in the nuclear issue shows that there was a trickery in this (deal) proposal (brokered by the International Atomic Energy Agency). They (Americans) thought that, using a kind of rhetoric, they can cheat politically," Larijani said addressing a gathering in Tehran, without specifying how the United States has tried to cheat Iran.

1610 GMT: Why Mousavi's Statement (see 1345 GMT) is Significant. An EA correspondent drops by:

Mousavi's latest communique isn't worth noting for its content --- it is a rather stale critique of current basij actions and dubious nostalgic take on the "good old days" of his premiership, when political repression was far higher than now.

What is remarkable is the coordination between Mousavi and Ayatollah Khomeini's bay foundation, run by his nephew Hassan. Mousavi's thoughts regarding the old vs new basij are almost identical to a similar article which appeared yesterday on the Jamaran website, run by the foundation. [Note: Mousavi's latest Internet interview was with Jamaran. -- SL]

This is yet another indicator that Khomeini's family have more than ever thrown their weight behind the reformists, no doubt a significant support in a clannish political system where familial ties are still a key yardstick of political interaction.

1345 GMT: Mousavi and the Basiji Celebrations. Mir Hossein Mousavi has used the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the Basiji movement to address the militia in his Statement No. 15. We're looking for an English translation.

1135 GMT: An Outstretched Hand (But You're Still Losers). The Supreme Leader said Wednesday in a televised speech, "Those who are deceived by a smile or applause by the enemy and try to confront the establishment and constitution should know that their efforts are futile."

Ayatollah Khamenei, backing President Ahmadinejad, said the opposition should not be branded as "hypocrites...just because they do not say what we say".

1130 GMT: Inspired by Marjane Satrapi's graphic memoir Persepolis, activists have published a Web update on the June election and the protests up to 21 June. All the drawings are from the original memoir except for one --- on the role of Twitter in the demonstrations.

1040 GMT: Trashing Neda. The commander of the Basiji militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, has marked this week's celebrations of his organisation by headlining the "real" story on the killing of Neda Agha Soltan. A "person from America" shot Neda as part of a plot in which the Iranian regime would be blamed for her death.

0930 GMT: The reformist website Rooz Online has published an English-language version of the speech of MP Ali Reza Zakani to which we have paid great attention. The summary is still garbled in places but it seems clear from this version that Zakani's primary targets, are not President Ahmadinejad and his inner circle but Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and those ministries like Interior and Intelligence whom Ahmadinejad has seen as post-election obstacles.

Specifically, I now think Zakani's references to the eve-of-election polls that indicated a close race between Ahmadinejad and Mir Hossein Mousavi are not, as I first misread (and as Rooz now misreads in its headline), an attack on the President's legitimacy. Instead, they put blame at the feet of Iranian ministries (and implicitly Larijani) who spread the polls and thus fed the notion of electoral "fraud" after Ahmadinejad's victory.

0825 GMT: The New York Times reveals that President Obama, on the eve of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Latin America, wrote a three-page letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Obama signalled his hope that Da Silva would back the US-led Vienna proposal for "third-party enrichment" of Iran's uranium.

More significant than the letter or indeed Da Silva's public response, balancing support for international efforts with a declaration of faith in Iran's "peaceful" programme is the leaking of the news by two Administration officials. This indicates that Washington still considered the discussion with Tehran "live", including Iran's tabling of its still-private response to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

0730 GMT: We've begun this morning by posting a video from Iranian students to international colleagues and a response to a reader's question, "Why do we keep analysing this dysfunctional Government?"

Of course, President Ahmadinejad is not admitting to dysfunction. Instead he is offering the globe-trotting sign that All is Well. After his visits to Gambia and Brazil yesterday, he had a stop-over in Bolivia, where he got a warm reception from a small group of Bolivian Muslims and a show of support for Iran's nuclear position and praise of Iranian-Bolivian links from President Evo Morales. Then it was off to Venezuela and another meeting with Hugo Chavez, a firm back of the Tehran Government.

And, in a signal of hyper-engagement, Iran has revived its application for membership of the World Trade Organization, sending a summary of its commerce policies to the WTO.

Iran : Why Keep On Analysing a "Dysfunctional" Government?

An EA reader intervened yesterday, "I am not sure why we are consumed and analyze every word (official or unofficial) by every member of this dysfunctional government."

It's a fair point that made me think. The obvious response is "well, that's what I do", whether the government in the analytic crosshairs is in Tehran or Washington or London. But, after 5 1/2 months of watching and trying to assess the state of play inside Iran's corridors of power, the inevitable question is whether that attention makes any difference.

The Latest from Iran (25 November): Reading the Signals
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So here's my answer, beyond that of academia or journalism: if this Government had established legitimacy amongst most Iranians, we could probably pack up and go home, at least on the issue of whether there would be significant change within the Islamic Republic.

In my opinion, however, it hasn't. That's not only the case with respect to the Green movement and its well of silent supporters, it's also the case within the Iranian establishment. It's precisely because a lot of those "every words" point to dysfunction, in the sense of establishing and maintaining power, that they deserve attention.

Ironically, where this government continues to function, haphazardly but still with consequences, is in the attempt to crush the challenge from outside. The arrests of students, the continued display of the "foreign intrigue" banner, and the disruption of communications both point to a regime which is far from impotent and one which is far from settled.

Perhaps more importantly, even the swinging of the fist brings further tensions. So Iran's ministries fight over whether to maintain indefinite punishment or offer a sign of "legal" process, compromising on the prison sentences plus heavy bail for reformist leaders.

Meanwhile, with legitimacy far from established, the President faces challenges that walk hand-in-hand with "dysfunction". This morning, we are already picking up on a running battle between Ali Reza Zamani, the member of Parliament who decided to offer "revelations" about possible manipulations of the election and to trash the National Unity Plan, and the former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi. Seems that Zamani is arguing that the Kahrizak Prison scandal is due to Mortazavi's policy of shipping troublemakers to a facility which would become notorious for detainee abuse. And Mortazavi, perceiving --- with some justification --- that someone beyond Zamani may be lining him up as the "scapegoat" for post-election injustices --- is responding that he is not responsible. The bigger question is whether he tries to name those who he thinks are to blame.

Because Mortazavi is still nominally a Deputy Prosecutor General in Iran's judiciary. That's a judiciary which is in a running battle with the Revolutionary Guard over who administers justice in Iran. It's a judiciary headed by Sadegh Larijani, who is also the brother of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani. The same Ali Larijani who now appears to be making another run at curbing, if not toppling, President Ahmadinejad. The Ali Larijani who may or may not represent the Supreme Leader in his statements but who definitely is now offering political cover to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. The same Hashemi Rafsanjani who may now be calculating his own re-emergence on the political scene, whether or not that is linked to a National Unity Plan.

Another reader writes, "Those mixed messages....It's gotta wear ya down after a while." I appreciate the concern but the danger is not that I'm worn down --- I'll keep on keeping on.

The issue instead is whether the Iranian Government is being worn down by months of not only mixed messages but of scheming, bickering, and of course facing the unending challenge on the streets and in the universities. That's not to say that, if dysfunction turns to crumbling, it will be a Green victory. Take your choice: the Revolutionary Guard moving into the political turmoil to lead from the front, rather than stand alongside the President. A show of "unity" which brings a Larijani or a Rafsanjani to centre stage. A Supreme Leader making new alliances to maintain his own hold on velayat-e-faqih.

So it's a range of possibilities rather than a certainty, either that President Ahmadinejad's legitimacy has been secured or that his demise has been confirmed. Those possibilities lie not only in the dramatic shows of resistance but inside the mixed signals that rise up from the supposed seats of power in Iran.

And so I keep on analysing....

The Latest from Iran (24 November): A Larijani-Rafsanjani Alliance?

1910 GMT: Prosecuting Journalists. Reporters without Borders has published a summary of latest news on journalists who have been convicted and arrested (and even one who was released).

1900 GMT: Some Good News for Mahmoud. President Ahmadinejad and his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, signed 13 cooperation agreements on trade, energy, stocks and banking, agriculture, news agenices, technology, culture, and visa requirements.

1735 GMT: Mortazavi Mystery Over? After days of rumours that he was in Evin Prison, former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi has appeared at the memorial service for Ali Kordan, the former Minister of Interior who died this weekend.

1725 GMT: Isolating Rafsanjani? Division of opinion here amongst EA staff: one colleague is saying Hashemi Rafsanjani is a spent force while another is arguing strongly that "the Shark" is far from finished and about to make another move.

If the latter, those in the regime opposed to Rafsanjani (and possibly worried about the possibility of his working in combination with Ali Larijani) will try to block it. Having dismissed him from the rota for Friday Prayers in Tehran and the Qods Day Prayer, authorities are now taking away the Eid al-Adha Prayer from Rafsanjani and giving it to Ahmad Khatami.

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1715 GMT: Back from teaching break to find that Mousavi activist Majid Zamani has been released on bail.

1335 GMT: Your Daily University Demonstration. Video is now in of Monday's protest at Qazvin University; we've posted it in a separate entry.

1320 GMT: Atrianfar Sentenced. A reliable Iranian activist reports that journalist Mohammad Atrianfar's sentence, passed this weekend, was six years in jail and that he --- like former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and student organisation leader Ahmad Zeidabadi --- has been released on bail while the sentence is appealed.

The same source claims that student activist Atafeh Nabavi has been sentenced to four years.

1230 GMT: A Persian-language site has published the names of more than 70 students who have been detained recently by the regime.

1100 GMT: Mr Smith Gets It Right. Back from a research seminar on Chomsky to find that Iran's Foreign Ministry has opened the door a bit on the talks on uranium enrichment:

Iran is not opposed to sending its low-enriched uranium (LEU) abroad but wants 100 percent guarantees of receiving higher-enriched fuel in return for a medical research reactor...."Nobody in Iran ever said that we are against sending 3.5 percent-enriched uranium abroad," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said. "If we say we are looking for 100 percent guaranteees, it means that we want 3.5 percent enriched uranium to be sent out under such circumstances that we make sure that we will receive the 20 percent fuel."

That statement seems to bear out the analysis from EA's Mr Smith, offered last week: "[Iran's proposed] arrangement would allay Iranian fears that its uranium supply might be held indefinitely by some foreign party, including Russia."

0840 GMT: Today's Bang the War Drum Moment. The Guardian of London reaches far this morning in its presentation of all shades of opinion. Benny Morris, once a good historian and now a loud polemicist, wrings his hands over an Israeli military attack on Iran: "Obama will soon have to decide whether to give Israel a green light, and how brightly it will shine."

I think Morris would like the missiles to fly but he's passed the buck to the US President because of...

...the likely devastating repercussions –-- regional and global. These will probably include massive rocketing of Israel's cities and military bases by the Iranians and Hezbollah (from Lebanon), and possibly by Hamas (from Gaza). This could trigger land wars in Lebanon and Gaza as well as a protracted long-range war with Iran. It could see terrorism by Iranian agents against Israeli (and Jewish) targets around the world; a steep increase in world oil prices, which will rebound politically against Israel; and Iranian action against American targets in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Gulf. More generally, Islamist terrorism against western targets could only grow.

0830 GMT: As for Dissent.... In this morning's New York Times, Robert Worth picks up on several developments in recent weeks to summarise the regime's efforts to defeat the opposition:

Stung by the force and persistence of the protests, the government appears to be starting a far more ambitious effort to discredit its opponents and re-educate Iran’s mostly young and restive population. In recent weeks, the government has announced a variety of new ideological offensives.

It is implanting 6,000 Basij militia centers in elementary schools across Iran to promote the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, and it has created a new police unit to sweep the Internet for dissident voices. A company affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards acquired a majority share in the nation’s telecommunications monopoly this year, giving the Guards de facto control of Iran’s land lines, Internet providers and two cellphone companies. And in the spring, the Revolutionary Guards plan to open a news agency with print, photo and television elements.

The government calls it “soft war,” and Iran’s leaders often seem to take it more seriously than a real military confrontation.

0815 GMT: Rooz Online are pressing the idea of co-operation between Ali Larijani and Hashemi Rafsanjani against the President. An analysis has highlighted Larijani's defense of Rafsanjani as a "pillar of the revolution" and, as we have in a separate entry, contrasted this with a view of Ali Reza Zakani's speech on the election and the National Unity Plan as an attack on Larijani.

0730 GMT: The US View of the Green Movement. Over the last two weeks, we have had intense debate over Washington's perception, inside and outside the US Government, of the Iranian opposition. Amongst this was a discussion of how the American elites might view filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf, with his recent talk at the Carnegie Endowment, as the spokesman for the Green Wave.

Interesting then to see Robin Wright, one of the top US-based journalists on Iran and the Middle East, highlight Makhmalbaf's speech and declare, with one quick qualification, "Iran's Green Movement Reaches Out to U.S."

0720 GMT: Nuclear Rhetoric or a Powerful Signal? Fars News' English-language site is putting a clear message on top of Deputy Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mohammadi's comments on Sunday: "Leader Has Final Say on Iran-US Talks". Mohammadi said in a roundtable at Tehran's Amir Kabir University:

The negotiation with the US is not possible without the permission by Imam and the Leader, and any kind of talks with the US must be permitted by the Supreme Leader. No Iranian President or Foreign Minister has had or will have the permission to act on establishment of relations with the US.

So is Mohammadi's declaration just the formal reiteration that Ayatollah Khamenei is atop the Iranian system? Is it a reassurance that any show of engagement with the US and Iranian proposals have the backing of the Supreme Leader? Or is this a message to Ahmadinejad and pro-deal allies to step away from the discussions?

0710 GMT: The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has stepped up its line of US and Pakistani support of the Baluch insurgent group Jundallah, including last month's deadly suicide bombing in Baluchistan.

Addressing IRGC commanders in Isfahan, Brigadier General Gholam-Reza Soleimani said the US Central Intelligence Agency has been spending millions of dollars in its campaign against the Islamic Republic: "The CIA makes a contribution of more than one billion dollar each year to Pakistan's intelligence agency (Inter-Service Intelligence) as part of a campaign to eliminate individuals with anti-U.S. mentalities." He added that there was evidence of ISI and US involvement in many terrorist incidents in Iran, including the October bombing that claimed several IRGC commanders amongst more than 40 dead: "There exists documented evidence of links between (Abdolmalek) Rigi's terrorist group (Jundallah) and the CIA."

Iran: While the President's Away.....The Contest Inside Tehran's Establishment

I could be overreading the situation, but I sense nervousness and confusion within the Iranian establishment. That emerged yesterday in the conflicting stories over the objections of key members of Parliament, and specifically Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, to the rule of President Ahmadinejad. Of course, there have been differences between Parliament and Ahmadinejad on the economic issues before the election, let alone after the inauguration. The anger over the economic proposals, especially the way they have been pursued by Ahmadinejad, is rising, with the injection of the accusations not only of mismanagement but of dubious practices and possibly corruption.

The Latest from Iran (24 November): A Larijani-Rafsanjani Alliance?

The reason for that appears to be a political contest behind the economic foreground. Look carefully at the conflicting stories in the same publication, Khabar, yesterday, and here is what emerges. While some members of Parliament are eager to rally round Ahmadinejad and claim that the dispute is being whipped up by outside forces, Larijani's criticism moves from the battle over subsidies and taxes to the manner in which Ahmadinejad is wielding authority. Dictator" is a pretty strong word, even if the President is not directly named, and Larijani's defense of Hashemi Rafsanjani against the attacks, fed if not led by Ahmadinejad allies, is just as telling.



The catalyst for this may be the collapse of the National Unity Plan. Consider that the Plan, in which Larijani and Rafsanjani both had a hand, would have curbed Ahmadinejad's authority and given both his adversaries roles in the revision of the Iranian system. And consider the drama of this weekend's statement by pro-Government MP Ali Zakani behind the "election may be rigged" headline: the declaration that the intent of the Unity Plan was a Larijani Presidency. Indeed, it may be that Zakani's intention was not to bring the election into question but to claim, albeit in garbled form, that Larijani and Mousavi had put forth the false image of a close election to try and pull out a coup against Ahmadinejad.

No surprise, then, that Larijani has spoken out. No surprise that Hashemi Rafsanjani's office has claimed that Zakani, in his speech, made up the quotes from the former President.

Remember, all of this is happening while the leadership of the Green movement is in a quiet phase. And, while the university demonstrations continue day after day, the intrigues are occurring behind closed doors as well as in speeches beyond the campuses. All of this has developed while Rafsanjani has been on the defensive and quieted, although there are signs that he may now be emerging for a fightback.

Meanwhile, the Revoutionary Guard makes its own moves with military exercises and loud announcements. And the fight over how to handle the "enemy" leads to more arrests and the muddled compromise of prison sentences for the biggest reformist names while letting them free on bail during appeals.

Some EA readers and other observers use the word "implosion" in their projections of the near-future. I don't, preferring "re-alignment". But it is a contested re-alignment, and political swords may soon be drawn.