The Latest from Iran (24 November): A Larijani-Rafsanjani Alliance?

1910 GMT: Prosecuting Journalists. Reporters without Borders has published a summary of latest news on journalists who have been convicted and arrested (and even one who was released).

1900 GMT: Some Good News for Mahmoud. President Ahmadinejad and his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, signed 13 cooperation agreements on trade, energy, stocks and banking, agriculture, news agenices, technology, culture, and visa requirements.

1735 GMT: Mortazavi Mystery Over? After days of rumours that he was in Evin Prison, former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi has appeared at the memorial service for Ali Kordan, the former Minister of Interior who died this weekend.

1725 GMT: Isolating Rafsanjani? Division of opinion here amongst EA staff: one colleague is saying Hashemi Rafsanjani is a spent force while another is arguing strongly that "the Shark" is far from finished and about to make another move.

If the latter, those in the regime opposed to Rafsanjani (and possibly worried about the possibility of his working in combination with Ali Larijani) will try to block it. Having dismissed him from the rota for Friday Prayers in Tehran and the Qods Day Prayer, authorities are now taking away the Eid al-Adha Prayer from Rafsanjani and giving it to Ahmad Khatami.

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1715 GMT: Back from teaching break to find that Mousavi activist Majid Zamani has been released on bail.

1335 GMT: Your Daily University Demonstration. Video is now in of Monday's protest at Qazvin University; we've posted it in a separate entry.

1320 GMT: Atrianfar Sentenced. A reliable Iranian activist reports that journalist Mohammad Atrianfar's sentence, passed this weekend, was six years in jail and that he --- like former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and student organisation leader Ahmad Zeidabadi --- has been released on bail while the sentence is appealed.

The same source claims that student activist Atafeh Nabavi has been sentenced to four years.

1230 GMT: A Persian-language site has published the names of more than 70 students who have been detained recently by the regime.

1100 GMT: Mr Smith Gets It Right. Back from a research seminar on Chomsky to find that Iran's Foreign Ministry has opened the door a bit on the talks on uranium enrichment:

Iran is not opposed to sending its low-enriched uranium (LEU) abroad but wants 100 percent guarantees of receiving higher-enriched fuel in return for a medical research reactor...."Nobody in Iran ever said that we are against sending 3.5 percent-enriched uranium abroad," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said. "If we say we are looking for 100 percent guaranteees, it means that we want 3.5 percent enriched uranium to be sent out under such circumstances that we make sure that we will receive the 20 percent fuel."

That statement seems to bear out the analysis from EA's Mr Smith, offered last week: "[Iran's proposed] arrangement would allay Iranian fears that its uranium supply might be held indefinitely by some foreign party, including Russia."

0840 GMT: Today's Bang the War Drum Moment. The Guardian of London reaches far this morning in its presentation of all shades of opinion. Benny Morris, once a good historian and now a loud polemicist, wrings his hands over an Israeli military attack on Iran: "Obama will soon have to decide whether to give Israel a green light, and how brightly it will shine."

I think Morris would like the missiles to fly but he's passed the buck to the US President because of...

...the likely devastating repercussions –-- regional and global. These will probably include massive rocketing of Israel's cities and military bases by the Iranians and Hezbollah (from Lebanon), and possibly by Hamas (from Gaza). This could trigger land wars in Lebanon and Gaza as well as a protracted long-range war with Iran. It could see terrorism by Iranian agents against Israeli (and Jewish) targets around the world; a steep increase in world oil prices, which will rebound politically against Israel; and Iranian action against American targets in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Gulf. More generally, Islamist terrorism against western targets could only grow.

0830 GMT: As for Dissent.... In this morning's New York Times, Robert Worth picks up on several developments in recent weeks to summarise the regime's efforts to defeat the opposition:

Stung by the force and persistence of the protests, the government appears to be starting a far more ambitious effort to discredit its opponents and re-educate Iran’s mostly young and restive population. In recent weeks, the government has announced a variety of new ideological offensives.

It is implanting 6,000 Basij militia centers in elementary schools across Iran to promote the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, and it has created a new police unit to sweep the Internet for dissident voices. A company affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards acquired a majority share in the nation’s telecommunications monopoly this year, giving the Guards de facto control of Iran’s land lines, Internet providers and two cellphone companies. And in the spring, the Revolutionary Guards plan to open a news agency with print, photo and television elements.

The government calls it “soft war,” and Iran’s leaders often seem to take it more seriously than a real military confrontation.

0815 GMT: Rooz Online are pressing the idea of co-operation between Ali Larijani and Hashemi Rafsanjani against the President. An analysis has highlighted Larijani's defense of Rafsanjani as a "pillar of the revolution" and, as we have in a separate entry, contrasted this with a view of Ali Reza Zakani's speech on the election and the National Unity Plan as an attack on Larijani.

0730 GMT: The US View of the Green Movement. Over the last two weeks, we have had intense debate over Washington's perception, inside and outside the US Government, of the Iranian opposition. Amongst this was a discussion of how the American elites might view filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf, with his recent talk at the Carnegie Endowment, as the spokesman for the Green Wave.

Interesting then to see Robin Wright, one of the top US-based journalists on Iran and the Middle East, highlight Makhmalbaf's speech and declare, with one quick qualification, "Iran's Green Movement Reaches Out to U.S."

0720 GMT: Nuclear Rhetoric or a Powerful Signal? Fars News' English-language site is putting a clear message on top of Deputy Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mohammadi's comments on Sunday: "Leader Has Final Say on Iran-US Talks". Mohammadi said in a roundtable at Tehran's Amir Kabir University:

The negotiation with the US is not possible without the permission by Imam and the Leader, and any kind of talks with the US must be permitted by the Supreme Leader. No Iranian President or Foreign Minister has had or will have the permission to act on establishment of relations with the US.

So is Mohammadi's declaration just the formal reiteration that Ayatollah Khamenei is atop the Iranian system? Is it a reassurance that any show of engagement with the US and Iranian proposals have the backing of the Supreme Leader? Or is this a message to Ahmadinejad and pro-deal allies to step away from the discussions?

0710 GMT: The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has stepped up its line of US and Pakistani support of the Baluch insurgent group Jundallah, including last month's deadly suicide bombing in Baluchistan.

Addressing IRGC commanders in Isfahan, Brigadier General Gholam-Reza Soleimani said the US Central Intelligence Agency has been spending millions of dollars in its campaign against the Islamic Republic: "The CIA makes a contribution of more than one billion dollar each year to Pakistan's intelligence agency (Inter-Service Intelligence) as part of a campaign to eliminate individuals with anti-U.S. mentalities." He added that there was evidence of ISI and US involvement in many terrorist incidents in Iran, including the October bombing that claimed several IRGC commanders amongst more than 40 dead: "There exists documented evidence of links between (Abdolmalek) Rigi's terrorist group (Jundallah) and the CIA."

Iran: Re-Evaluating the Green Movement After 5+ Months

The Latest from Iran (17 November): An Obama-Ahmadinejad Alliance?

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0800 GMT: In recent days there has been an apparent shift in the content of the statements of opposition leaders. Despite Government restrictions, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami have continued to get out public declarations, mainly through meetings with reformist groups or appearances such as Karroubi's visit to Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani in hospital, but their content now seems to be carefully hedged. While the abuses of the Government are still identified, all three have been at great pains to put their calls for changes within the framework of the Constitution and the Iranian system, as well as warning their followers not to resort to extreme action.

In tone, this is not new. The Green movement has always maintained that it is upholding the laws and values of the Islamic Republic and that it is the Government which has dismissed or violated those foundations of 1979. There has been far less in content, however, from Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami on political objectives, and even specific issues such as the enquiry into detainee abuses, spurred by Khatami's letter of 29 July to Hashemi Rafsanjani, have not featured so prominently.



One explanation for the shift may be that the Government's 5+ months of restrictions on the communications and movements of the oppositonal leadership, “supported” by detentions and trials, have worn down the scope of the leadership's declarations and ambitions. Another is that figures like Rafsanjani have moved away from open co-operation and that initiatives such as the National Unity Plan appear to have run into the ground. A third is that the leaders have a growing fear of a movement which, angry and frustrated, may strike out violently against the Government.

Whatever the reason for a more cautious approach from the top, this should not be mistaken as the settling of the Green Wave. Dissent bubbles --- yesterday, catching up with news, it was notable that there were not only the statements of Karroubi and Khatami but also the more pointed criticisms of Grand Ayatollahs Sane'i and Montazeri and a show of support for the challenge of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib. (I also understand, from a private source, that Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi --- considered a “conservative” in clerical approach --- has launched a scathing attack on the Government in a closed-door session which has not been made public.)

And, of course, there is the simmering at the Universities and other locations of protests, which emerges somewhere as public demonstration on a daily basis. Even if this is not picked up by the media, it should not be missed: note, as EA readers have, the dramatic challenge at the international university at Qazvin to the appearance of regime supporter Hamid Rasaee.

The thoughtful discussion on EA's comments board --- is this now a challenge which is long-term but which will not abate until there are major changes in the Iranian system? --- continues. I don't think there is a definitive answer, but I do think it exposes the fatuousness of mainstream assertions such as that in The New York Times (see yesterday's updates), "[Iran] now looks as if it’s back to business as usual." Indeed, for all the difficulties at the top of the opposition, I was struck recently by the comment of a shrewd but normally cautious Iranian activist, “This is no longer about the election. This is about the concept of velayat-e-faqih [the concept of clerical rule through the Supreme Leader].”

At the same time, that prospect of a demand for action which extends over time but expands in scope raises an equally long-term question. Up to now, I could be secure in the easy fit of a Green leadership, complemented by those like Rafsanjani who also wanted to curb Ahmadinejad's authority, with the mass if somewhat disjointed effort from below. Now I wonder what will be the new dynamic amongst a political leadership, manoeuvring not only against Government forces but against its own concerns and fear, senior clerics who will not go away quietly, and that Green Wave --- sometimes abstract, sometimes below the surface, but also visible in the shows of anger, frustration, and hope --- which ebbs but is never stilled?

Iran: Is This an "Unravelling" Protest Beyond Mousavi and Karroubi?

Iran: Why is Washington Belittling the Green Movement?
The Latest from Iran (12 November): Ahmadinejad Moves for Nuclear Deal

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I will be honest. I saw this article by Brian Murphy of the Associated Press earlier in the week but decided not to post it or even refer to it. I did so because I could not find the basis for his claims about the Green movement. Neither the quotes from his "some experts" do not or his knowledge of the situation (he claims, for example, that only "several thousand" demonstrators turned out in Iran on 13 Aban) support his sweeping conclusion of a "potential unravelling" of the opposition. They do not back his speculation that "Mousavi and Karroubi's reluctance could leave room for more militant opposition leaders to emerge in the future" --- indeed, Murphy's implication is that the mainstream of the Green protest desire revolution while Mousavi and Karroubi "have repeatedly said they do not seek to overthrow the ruling clerics".



On second thought, however, the far better-informed and thoughtful discussion amongst EA readers has considered the direction of the Green Wave after the latest protests and statements and actions by its leaders. So I'm posting Murphy's piece as his personal contribution to the debate and looking forward to the ideas and critiques of our own "experts" on the Comment board.

Iran's opposition steers challenge toward the top
Brian Murphy

Just minutes before anti-riot police charged opposition marchers in Tehran last week, a new chant bubbled up from the crowd: "Death to Nobody."

It was more than just a play on the "Death to America" slogans that are staples of Iran's political life. The cries give a sense of how much the protest movement has evolved since the raw outrage of last summer.

The demonstrations have moved beyond narrow attacks on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his disputed re-election in June. They are now drifting toward a blanket challenge of the Islamic leadership's right to rule.

"It's gone from anti-Ahmadinejad to more of anti-regime in general," said Mustafa Alani, a regional analyst at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. "That's an important shift."

And here lies the protesters' strength, but also their potential unraveling, some experts say.

An overall challenge to the powers of non-elected clerics — headed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — could provide the big picture goal to sustain the demonstrations for years. But it also carries risks. Top among them: alienating the opposition leadership, who remain still loyal to the Islamic system, and bringing even harsher crackdowns by authorities who can justify use of violence to protect the status quo.

The two senior figures in the opposition, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi, have repeatedly said they do not seek to overthrow the ruling clerics. Since July, authorities have put on trial more than 100 pro-reform figures accused of being part of a plot to topple this religious hierarchy.

Mousavi and Karroubi's reluctance could leave room for more militant opposition leaders to emerge in the future.

The protests last week coincided with state-run rallies marking the 30th anniversary of the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. The timing, like the shouts of "Death to Nobody," were a symbolic challenge to one of the ideological pillars of the regime — the anti-U.S. fervor of the 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled the pro-American shah.

Just blocks away from the opposition marches, the pro-government demonstrators were bellowing the standard beat of "Death to America" to mark the Nov. 4 embassy seizure.

Many pro-reform marchers still wore the green colors of Mousavi, who claims he is the rightful winner of the June 12 presidential election.

But much of the protesters' defiance went beyond Mousavi's complaints over the election and the subsequent crackdown and targeted Khamenei in acts that were almost unthinkable before the postelection meltdown. Protesters tore up or trampled images of the supreme leader, whose most ardent backers believe is answerable only to God.

Demonstrators also called on President Barack Obama to pick a side, in apparent frustration with White House efforts for direct talks with Iran's leaders. "Obama, Obama, you are either with them, or with us," they chanted.

The opposition leaders were not among the crowd. Reformist web sites say hard-line vigilantes kept Mousavi from leaving his office. Karroubi was overcome by tear gas and left before riot police moved in, according to his Web site.

More than 100 people were detained, including several journalists, but most were later released.

Karroubi later denounced the "very ugly" tactics of police, which he claimed included attacking women. Mousavi issued a statement calling for the rights of all Iranians to be respected. But there was nothing to suggest they would follow the protesters' lead in hardening their stance against Iran's political system.

After security forces crushed that massive protests that erupted after the election, opposition groups in recent months have used major state-backed events to stage rival rallies.

The next test could come Dec. 7, which marks the death of three students in 1953 during protests of a visit by then-Vice President Richard Nixon for talks with the shah.

Reform groups appear focused on trying to build a credible turnout for the next marches after just several thousand joined last week's protests.

Some reformist Web sites have urged students to stay off campus on the days of future marches so they can't be blocked from joining by security forces. Many other sites are carrying one of the new symbols of the opposition: a green-hued drawing of a young woman wearing a headscarf and thrusting up her fist in protest.

"The long-term crisis for the government isn't over," said Alireza Nader, an analyst of Iranian affairs at the RAND Corp. in Washington.

Still, authorities must be careful about how hard they push back or else they risk a backlash. The government crackdown so far "has been very violent but measured in some ways," Nader said. But if authorities carry out threats to arrest Mousavi and Karroubi, "this could fan the flames," he said.

Some high-level officials have offered talks with the opposition as a way to keep the tensions from spilling over to recurring cycles of protests and violence.

The former chief of the judiciary and close ally of Khamenei, Ayatollah [Hashemi] Shahroudi, was quoted Monday in Iranian newspapers as calling the postelection rifts a "family dispute" that can be worked out through dialogue.

But Meir Javedanfar, an Iran analyst based in Israel, said Khamenei "sees the reformist movement as a threat" and aims to "stifle its growth and, if he can, to completely suffocate them."

But the greater the pressure, the more risk he could rally people around the protests.

"Khamenei's actions could actually strengthen the reformist movement," he said.

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UPDATE 1600 GMT: EA's Chris Emery has now posted a response, adding to Mr Smith's points that 13 Aban has been "a major blow to the Supreme Leader's authority".

---

Mr Smith, who was one of the EA correspondents following and updating on yesterday's events, offers his analysis:

The Green Wave has bounced back. The strongly-worded threats by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps did not deter the supporters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who made it to the police-infested streets of Tehran in their tens of thousands for yet another day of demonstrations, countering the official ones organised by the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei regime.

Yesterday's events are yet again proof of the fact that the opposition has not been defeated and is not going away. Nearly five months into the Iranian post-electoral crisis, the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei camp has not quite figured out a workable plan to fulfil its intent of silencing the critics. The litany of street violence unleashed by security forces, the background of the occasional killing and raping of reformist activists, and the current warnings by the IRGC and Ayatollah Khamenei that criticism of the "legitimate government" amounted to a crime did little to cow the Green Wave supporters. Instead, the Supreme Leader found himself at the receiving end of the street chants.

Yesterday's events also effectively ended the regime's capacity to use key Islamic Republic commemorations for its benefit. The Al-Jazeera English correspondent in Tehran portrayed the Green Wave demonstrations as a "hijacking" of the 13 Aban traditional marches. This interpretation is highly debatable, given that the perpetrators of the assault on the US embassy 30 years ago are now regime enemies, either languishing in jail, such as Mohsen Mirdamadi, or hovering in silence, such as the noted political analyst Abbas Abdi.

Another key outcome from yesterday's protests is the remarkable capacity of the rank-and-file to organise major events "from below", without needing or waiting for the go-ahead from its leadership. In fact, Mousavi and Karroubi are now effectively running after their own supporters and offering fatherly advice to them, rather than acting as beacons for the start of direct action.

And do not underestimate the damage of yesterday to the slight legitimacy that the current Government possesses. The amateur footage of young unarmed women being beaten up by riot police and the widespread accounts of violence meted out by security forces will do little to back up the official claim that a small group of "troublemakers" were dealt with humanely by the police. The new round of arrests against student activists and journalists effectively wipes out the scant concessions offered by the release on bail of eminent reformist personalities such as the newspaper editor Mohammad Ghoochani and the noted journalist Hengameh Shahidi. [Editor's note: That concession is very limited, given that Shahidi appeared yesterday in Revolutionary Court to face charges.]

However, not everything is rosy for the reformists. The heavy "security atmosphere", the Iranian euphemism for the massive presence of police forces on the streets, is having its effects. The number of participants to the 13 Aban demonstrations was considerably lower, by all accounts, than that of the Qods Day marches of 18 September. Many potential participants await news of police deployment before setting out in the streets.
And the leadership is bearing the brunt of its followers' enthusiasm and relative success. While Karroubi is staunchly appearing in public events, only to be confronted violently by the security forces, Mousavi is effectively in virtual house arrest, prevented from joining crowds of any size. Former President Mohammad Khatami is even more detached, while Hashemi Rafsanjani has gone back to his behind-the-scenes scheming.

More than ever, the Green movement now needs a clear-cut, cogent, middle- to long-term political strategy that will harness the strong popular resentment against Ahmadinejad to plans for the fall of the present government and the establishment of an alternative one, be that in the guise of a "National Unity" coalition or another form. There are reasons to believe that this possiblity is not far-fetched. Political enmity between Ahmadinejad and his conservative opponents is on the rise once again. The Brothers Larijani have contrived to block or delay any possible nuclear deal between the government and the International Atomice Energy Agency, for fear of the credit it would bring to Ahmadinejad. The subsidy plan proposed by the President has unravelled after a public quarrel between the president and Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Majlis.

A deal between Mousavi, Karroubi, and the Larijanis is still distant on the horizon. However, the two reformist leaders must attempt to turn the sizeable following they command into political capital. Up to that point, the Green movement will resemble the "creative chaos" that has often appeared in recent Iranian political history but has only occasionally succeeded in attaining its long-term goals. A nervous and vicious stalemate hangs right now over the political skyline of Tehran, with the shadows of the Islamic Republic's most enduring political crisis becoming deeper than ever.

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This is the response from EA's Chris Emery this morning's analysis of 13 Aban by Mr Smith. After Emery's evaluation, Mr Smith offers a brief reply:

The one aspect I missed in your analysis, particularly in regard to the political manoeuvrings of the Larijani brothers and the much-vaunted National Unity Plan, is any mention of the Supreme Leader. Today was undoubtedly another major blow to his personal authority. Yet he is far from an irrelevancy. Any strategy to remove Ahmadinejad will undoubtedly have to include a carefully calibrated approach to Khamenei.



Which comes back to what I have been saying for months: Ahmadinejad's conservative and reformist opponents are going to have to decide on whether they settle for the paralysis of the President's Government or take a leap of faith and pursue his removal. I stated a long time ago that I thought the former was probably inevitable, but I still don't think they have a strategy for the latter. My simplistic reading sees the Larijanis' decision on this question as central. Personally, I doubt they will move until the anti-Ahmadinejad coalition is able to flex economic muscle: the Green Movement is notably lacking the support of industry or business. Strikes are the crucial source of leverage.

The undoubted achievement of the Green Movement is now the denial of the regime's mobilisation of pro-regime collective memory. Imagine if the American authorities overnight had to view the 4th of July with a sense of dread. As such, Khamenei's position as custodian of the revolution is now ridiculous.

For me, the next critical date is Ashua (about 28 December). If the opposition is able to mobilise Shia collective identity, as Imam Khomeini did, then the regime's problems are huge. This is also where the senior clerics can really play a part --- perhaps Rafsanjani's behind-the-scenes moves are anticipating this?

Mr Smith replies:

You are absolutely right --- I had actually included a word or two on the SL but then deleted it mistakenly while editing another topic within the piece. Yesterday's events were really the end of the Supreme Leader's prestige, if he had any left. He is now fairly and squarely in centre of the Green Movement's blame game, something the reformist leaders have to take into account now.

I am still of the opinion that they have to act and send the open letter to Khamenei soon. I think there could be opportunities for a "grand coalition" of sorts against Ahmadinejad if and when the Larijanis finally decide to jump ship and revoke their current tight association with the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad institutional camp.