Thursday
Nov052009
Iran's New 13 Aban: "A Major Blow to Khamenei's Authority"
Thursday, November 5, 2009 at 15:25
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “The Green Wave Has Bounced Back”
The Latest from Iran (5 November): Riding the Wave?
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This is the response from EA's Chris Emery this morning's analysis of 13 Aban by Mr Smith. After Emery's evaluation, Mr Smith offers a brief reply:
The one aspect I missed in your analysis, particularly in regard to the political manoeuvrings of the Larijani brothers and the much-vaunted National Unity Plan, is any mention of the Supreme Leader. Today was undoubtedly another major blow to his personal authority. Yet he is far from an irrelevancy. Any strategy to remove Ahmadinejad will undoubtedly have to include a carefully calibrated approach to Khamenei.
Which comes back to what I have been saying for months: Ahmadinejad's conservative and reformist opponents are going to have to decide on whether they settle for the paralysis of the President's Government or take a leap of faith and pursue his removal. I stated a long time ago that I thought the former was probably inevitable, but I still don't think they have a strategy for the latter. My simplistic reading sees the Larijanis' decision on this question as central. Personally, I doubt they will move until the anti-Ahmadinejad coalition is able to flex economic muscle: the Green Movement is notably lacking the support of industry or business. Strikes are the crucial source of leverage.
The undoubted achievement of the Green Movement is now the denial of the regime's mobilisation of pro-regime collective memory. Imagine if the American authorities overnight had to view the 4th of July with a sense of dread. As such, Khamenei's position as custodian of the revolution is now ridiculous.
For me, the next critical date is Ashua (about 28 December). If the opposition is able to mobilise Shia collective identity, as Imam Khomeini did, then the regime's problems are huge. This is also where the senior clerics can really play a part --- perhaps Rafsanjani's behind-the-scenes moves are anticipating this?
Mr Smith replies:
You are absolutely right --- I had actually included a word or two on the SL but then deleted it mistakenly while editing another topic within the piece. Yesterday's events were really the end of the Supreme Leader's prestige, if he had any left. He is now fairly and squarely in centre of the Green Movement's blame game, something the reformist leaders have to take into account now.
I am still of the opinion that they have to act and send the open letter to Khamenei soon. I think there could be opportunities for a "grand coalition" of sorts against Ahmadinejad if and when the Larijanis finally decide to jump ship and revoke their current tight association with the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad institutional camp.
The Latest from Iran (5 November): Riding the Wave?
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
This is the response from EA's Chris Emery this morning's analysis of 13 Aban by Mr Smith. After Emery's evaluation, Mr Smith offers a brief reply:
The one aspect I missed in your analysis, particularly in regard to the political manoeuvrings of the Larijani brothers and the much-vaunted National Unity Plan, is any mention of the Supreme Leader. Today was undoubtedly another major blow to his personal authority. Yet he is far from an irrelevancy. Any strategy to remove Ahmadinejad will undoubtedly have to include a carefully calibrated approach to Khamenei.Which comes back to what I have been saying for months: Ahmadinejad's conservative and reformist opponents are going to have to decide on whether they settle for the paralysis of the President's Government or take a leap of faith and pursue his removal. I stated a long time ago that I thought the former was probably inevitable, but I still don't think they have a strategy for the latter. My simplistic reading sees the Larijanis' decision on this question as central. Personally, I doubt they will move until the anti-Ahmadinejad coalition is able to flex economic muscle: the Green Movement is notably lacking the support of industry or business. Strikes are the crucial source of leverage.
The undoubted achievement of the Green Movement is now the denial of the regime's mobilisation of pro-regime collective memory. Imagine if the American authorities overnight had to view the 4th of July with a sense of dread. As such, Khamenei's position as custodian of the revolution is now ridiculous.
For me, the next critical date is Ashua (about 28 December). If the opposition is able to mobilise Shia collective identity, as Imam Khomeini did, then the regime's problems are huge. This is also where the senior clerics can really play a part --- perhaps Rafsanjani's behind-the-scenes moves are anticipating this?
Mr Smith replies:
You are absolutely right --- I had actually included a word or two on the SL but then deleted it mistakenly while editing another topic within the piece. Yesterday's events were really the end of the Supreme Leader's prestige, if he had any left. He is now fairly and squarely in centre of the Green Movement's blame game, something the reformist leaders have to take into account now.
I am still of the opinion that they have to act and send the open letter to Khamenei soon. I think there could be opportunities for a "grand coalition" of sorts against Ahmadinejad if and when the Larijanis finally decide to jump ship and revoke their current tight association with the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad institutional camp.
Reader Comments (5)
Chris, the next big day in the calendar is December 7th (16 Azar) the day when 3 University of Tehran students were killed by the shah's forces in 53 after the coup.
Now, when we talk about Iran, we all have to be cautious b/c it is really not a game where we can make a lot of predictions. So all possibilities standing, I beg to differ on your comments about Ashura, of which I wrote a little in September:
http://www.sidewalklyrics.com/?p=1576
Before the revolution, one of the best ways that people mobilized was through the mosque. Post-1979, the state has bought the mosque. It is no longer imaginable to attend to revolutionary, anti-establishment activities in that location.
What does that have to do with ashura?
"Ashura will be a tricky gathering though. Because while people hit the streets, each group (dasteh) starts from one mosque, hosseiniyeh or tekkiyeh. Since most of these religious centers are state-owned, it’s going to be very difficult to mobilize independent groups."
So saying "If the opposition is able to mobilise for ashura" is like saying "If the opposition is able to mobilise in mosques" which is not possible.
The only difference here is the "tekkiyeh"s which are huge "stands", tent-like structures that groups erect in the streets and serve as one center for the ceremonies parallel to the mosque. However, for a tekkiyeh, you need permission from the municipality, more specifically the office of each district, so I'm not sure how viable that will be either. We can hope that mayor qalibaf will very indirectly intervene and allow for tekkiyehs.
We will see.
Quick correction, if u don't mind - 16 Azar is December 7, not December 4.
Just because the official govt. groups start from a mosque doesn't necessarily mean the protesters have to also. I'm sure the authorities won't let you put up your own Tents for protest gatherings but protesters will be willing to defy the authorities. I'm also a bit skeptical of the policy of only demonstrating on official govt. holidays. It is a clever tactic to do so, but there needs to be more regular sustained pressure on the government.
I think that a National Strike might be the logical next move. It will allow a lot more people to participate without being beaten or arrested.
If you folks think that the Larijani's are now king makers, remember this. The greens will have to quickly kill / dispose of them post victory, for the people will not and shall not tolerate this alliance for long. It is a fact the Larijani's know too well. They know they have close to no popular support, and even are hated more than loved. I doubt they will make this switch now or for that matter any time soon, although I would say it is possible some day soon. It may seem like a stalemate, but it is not. Momentum has shifted back to the greens and the AN / SL alliance are now in a defensive posture. In July / August they gained all the momentum, but now that the government is only able to stumble from crisis to crisis and manage only day to day as opposed to deal with the 4 year plan, the greens have the momentum.
The greens have not even officially announced anything yet, everyone is talking of Asura. Then we have a whole slew of events leading up to Fajr week and then Esfand and the 53 coupe and all the way to Farvardin. Imagine planning the security / crackdown detail. Its one hell of a crisis you now have.
I agree with @whereismyvote: the Larijanis' game should be viewed with much skepticism. They are not democrats and in my opinion are just playing for the right time to hijack the executive power. That would give them effectively complete control on the state.