The Latest from Iran (25 November): Larijani Talks Tough
Wednesday, November 25, 2009 at 13:39 
2030 GMT: El Baradei's Clues. Want to know the state of the nuclear talks with Iran? The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, offers all the necessary hints in an interview with Reuters.1. Iran's "swap" proposal, exchanging 20% enriched uranium for Iranian 3.5% stock inside the country, is not acceptable. "They are ready to put material under IAEA control on an (Iranian) island in the Persian Gulf. But the whole idea as I explained to them, to defuse this crisis, is to take the material out of Iran. I do not think (Iran's counter-proposal) will work as far as the West is concerned."
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To back his line, El Baradei is playing up uncertainty over the state of Iran's nuclear plans, pivoting on the controversy over the second enrichment plant at Fordoo: "You cannot really use it for civilian purposes. It's too small to produce fuel for a civilian reactor." So while the IAEA has "no indication that there are other undeclared facilities in Iran" or "any information that such facilities exist", Fordoo's existence raises questions about a wider Iranian programme --- questions that El Baradei can use (or create) to push back the "swap" initiative.
Iranian state media has already reacted: "IAEA fails to address Iran nuclear swap concerns". But this pretty much puts an end to Tehran's offer: if El Baradei won't back it, then it's almost certain none of the "5+1" powers will be offering any support.
2. But the talks are still very much alive, resting on a "third-party enrichment" arrangement. The plan would be one in which the IAEA would "take custody and control of the material. We've offered also to have the material in Turkey, a country which has the trust of all the parties.... I am open (to Iranian amendments) if they have any additional guarantees that do not involve keeping the material in Iran."
3. So, for now, El Baradei does not see a move to aggressive sanctions: UN resolutions are mainly "expressions of frustration".
Summary? Ball's in your court, President Ahmadinejad (and Supreme Leader Khamenei). Don't knock it back --- take a modified "third-party enrichment" offer and everyone will be happy.
1955 GMT: The Khatami and Mousavi Statements. Former President Mohammad Khatami has also issued a statement for Basiji week. He used the occasion to criticise both the specific oppression of dissenters --- "These days, honest and truthful people are being oppressed and worse than that all these are being done in the name of Islam and the revolution" --- and the general mismanagement of the Government --- "An unbiased view is that all areas of industry, agriculture, foreign affairs and different managements are in bad shape and all indexes have decline and the country has fallen behind." He continued to emphasise the hope for "a change in the country’s atmosphere" through an adherence to the Constitution".
And to summarise the Mousavi statement (see 1610 GMT): "What shaped Basij in the beginning of the revolution was pure ideas not weapons and military power that raised it to high statures....The goal of Imam Khomeini in creating Basij was to include all or at least a significant majority of the public by not belonging to a particular idea."
Now, however, the Basij "take orders with closed eyes and break tthe arms and legs of their religious brothers and sisters". They need to recognise that those who use lies as "their main political tactic...Following these people is not the righteous path."
At the end of the statement, Mousavi seizes the nationalist mantle and turns the charge of "foreign intervention" against the regime: If terrorising people succeeds, "the country will fall into the hands of foreign invaders".
1905 GMT: Here is Why There Won't Be Tough Sanctions. "The Chinese refiner Sinopec has signed a memorandum of understanding with the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company to invest $6.5 billion for building oil refineries in Iran. It is predicted that the two sides will close the deal in the next two months."
1850 GMT: Iranians' Civil Rights Violated (outside Iran). Forgive me for finding this story ironic as wel as serious: "An Iranian NGO (non-government organisation RahPouyan-e-DadGostar) is in the process of logging a legal complaint against the US over its violation of the rights of Iranian detainees."
Without dwelling on the case of Kian Tajbakhsh, the Iranian-American recently jailed for 15 years after a televised "confession" over his supposed role in velvet revolution, I'll note the possible significance that several of the 11 Iranians listed in the report have been connected to possible Israeli and/or US plots to abduct individuals connected with Iran's nuclear programme.
1840 GMT: A month after Iran's Ministry of Education announced a plan to permanently assign a member of the clergy to each school to “fulfill the cultural needs” of students, a religious official has stated that management of Iranian public schools is being transferred to seminaries. Ali Zolelm, the head of the Council of Cooperation between Ministry of Education and the seminaries, saying that seminars have already taken over school management in several provinces and the city of Qom.
1740 GMT: Larijani Keeps Up the Pressure. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, speaking in Tehran, has launched another assault on Iran's nuclear talks with the US, claiming that Washington wanted to deceive the Iranian Government:
Analyzing the U.S. (role) in the nuclear issue shows that there was a trickery in this (deal) proposal (brokered by the International Atomic Energy Agency). They (Americans) thought that, using a kind of rhetoric, they can cheat politically," Larijani said addressing a gathering in Tehran, without specifying how the United States has tried to cheat Iran.
1610 GMT: Why Mousavi's Statement (see 1345 GMT) is Significant. An EA correspondent drops by:
Mousavi's latest communique isn't worth noting for its content --- it is a rather stale critique of current basij actions and dubious nostalgic take on the "good old days" of his premiership, when political repression was far higher than now.
What is remarkable is the coordination between Mousavi and Ayatollah Khomeini's bay foundation, run by his nephew Hassan. Mousavi's thoughts regarding the old vs new basij are almost identical to a similar article which appeared yesterday on the Jamaran website, run by the foundation. [Note: Mousavi's latest Internet interview was with Jamaran. -- SL]
This is yet another indicator that Khomeini's family have more than ever thrown their weight behind the reformists, no doubt a significant support in a clannish political system where familial ties are still a key yardstick of political interaction.
1345 GMT: Mousavi and the Basiji Celebrations. Mir Hossein Mousavi has used the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the Basiji movement to address the militia in his Statement No. 15. We're looking for an English translation.
1135 GMT: An Outstretched Hand (But You're Still Losers). The Supreme Leader said Wednesday in a televised speech, "Those who are deceived by a smile or applause by the enemy and try to confront the establishment and constitution should know that their efforts are futile."
Ayatollah Khamenei, backing President Ahmadinejad, said the opposition should not be branded as "hypocrites...just because they do not say what we say".
1130 GMT: Inspired by Marjane Satrapi's graphic memoir Persepolis, activists have published a Web update on the June election and the protests up to 21 June. All the drawings are from the original memoir except for one --- on the role of Twitter in the demonstrations.
1040 GMT: Trashing Neda. The commander of the Basiji militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, has marked this week's celebrations of his organisation by headlining the "real" story on the killing of Neda Agha Soltan. A "person from America" shot Neda as part of a plot in which the Iranian regime would be blamed for her death.
0930 GMT: The reformist website Rooz Online has published an English-language version of the speech of MP Ali Reza Zakani to which we have paid great attention. The summary is still garbled in places but it seems clear from this version that Zakani's primary targets, are not President Ahmadinejad and his inner circle but Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and those ministries like Interior and Intelligence whom Ahmadinejad has seen as post-election obstacles.
Specifically, I now think Zakani's references to the eve-of-election polls that indicated a close race between Ahmadinejad and Mir Hossein Mousavi are not, as I first misread (and as Rooz now misreads in its headline), an attack on the President's legitimacy. Instead, they put blame at the feet of Iranian ministries (and implicitly Larijani) who spread the polls and thus fed the notion of electoral "fraud" after Ahmadinejad's victory.
0825 GMT: The New York Times reveals that President Obama, on the eve of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Latin America, wrote a three-page letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Obama signalled his hope that Da Silva would back the US-led Vienna proposal for "third-party enrichment" of Iran's uranium.
More significant than the letter or indeed Da Silva's public response, balancing support for international efforts with a declaration of faith in Iran's "peaceful" programme is the leaking of the news by two Administration officials. This indicates that Washington still considered the discussion with Tehran "live", including Iran's tabling of its still-private response to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
0730 GMT: We've begun this morning by posting a video from Iranian students to international colleagues and a response to a reader's question, "Why do we keep analysing this dysfunctional Government?"
Of course, President Ahmadinejad is not admitting to dysfunction. Instead he is offering the globe-trotting sign that All is Well. After his visits to Gambia and Brazil yesterday, he had a stop-over in Bolivia, where he got a warm reception from a small group of Bolivian Muslims and a show of support for Iran's nuclear position and praise of Iranian-Bolivian links from President Evo Morales. Then it was off to Venezuela and another meeting with Hugo Chavez, a firm back of the Tehran Government.
And, in a signal of hyper-engagement, Iran has revived its application for membership of the World Trade Organization, sending a summary of its commerce policies to the WTO.
Ai Larijani, Ali Reza Zakani, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Barack Obama, Basiji, Bolivia, Brazil, Evo Morales, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hugo Chavez, International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Kian Tajbakhsh, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, Mohammad el Baradei, National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company, New York Times, RahPouyan-e-DadGostar, Reuters, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, Sinopec, Venezuela, World Trade Organization, uranium enrichment in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (18)
"Specifically, I now think Zakani’s references to the eve-of-election polls that indicated a close race between Ahmadinejad and Mir Hossein Mousavi are not, as I first misread (and as Rooz now misreads in its headline), an attack on the President’s legitimacy. Instead, they put blame at the feet of Iranian ministries (and implicitly Larijani) who spread the polls and thus fed the notion of electoral “fraud” after Ahmadinejad’s victory." The outcome of all this is :
They ( people belonging to their wing ) have confessed that there were a " fraudulent election " which have caused this uprising and this turmoil in the country !! they had to wait and see the second turn !! My god , they are so stupid !! All these people killed, raped and emprisonned, for this bloody stupid thing !!! and they dare to confess !!! they are so honourable !!
[...] more from the original source: The Latest from Iran (25 November): Reading the Signals | Enduring … Share and [...]
"Speaking at the Imam Sadegh University, Zakani also revealed that Ahmadinejad had fewer votes than Mousavi among workers at such sensitive institutions as the state radio and television broadcasting."
and :
"out of the 800 ballots cast by workers at the state radio and television broadcasting, 750 belonged to Mousavi, "
The elections were rigged !!!
Samuel
How is clever your friend Nagdi, he has eventually found who is the killer of poor Neda ; It's an american !! he has to be hired by CIA , because he's so sensible, intelligent and strong !! I read an other article , few times ago, an other wise man of the iranian estabilshment had said , the killer was the doctor who wanted to save her life and few people had a demonstration in front of the GB ambassy !! we could be proud of this kind of statement !! only in our country we could find this !! they take all the people in the world for " fools "; I think they believe that everybody will swallow their rubbish !!
Yesterday , in the french media, there was said that some figtherplanes, going from France to iranian erea, had made a military manoeuvring, above Iran , and thanks to their bases in the golf, they could been refuelded during their filght; it was only to show : "YES WE CAN " !! and to respond to iranian manoeuvring !
Bravo Mr Moussavi for your statement adressed to bassij militia ; I read and speak persian but unfortunately I was not able to decipher this iranian writing, as if you wrote democracy like this : D emo CR aC y !! I am also waiting for the english translation !! anyway, well done and good initiative !
[...] See the original post here: The Latest from Iran (25 November): Reading the Signals | Enduring … [...]
tension between Jafari and AN
http://www.facebook.com/notes/freedom-messenger-ghasedane-azadi/drgyry-lfy-frmndh-sph-w-mdy-nzd-dr-jlsh-swry-ly-mnyt-mly/183509494589
Regarding the 1130 GMT update: the Spreading Persepolis website actually says pretty specifically that this is inspired by Marjane Satrapi's work, not that she wrote it or endorses it. Unless I'm completely misreading it.
From the Mousavi FB: http://www.facebook.com/notes/mir-hossein-mousavi-myr-syn-mwswy/ktmy-m-ftkr-my-nym-h-z-zdy-w-ntkbt-zd-df-my-nym-khatamiwe-are-proud-of-defending/187858882605" rel="nofollow">Khatami's latest.
Also, http://www.facebook.com/notes/mir-hossein-mousavi-myr-syn-mwswy/mousavis-statement-15-with-english-summary-bynyh-15-myrsyn-mwswy-qrr-nbwd-bsyj-j/187675852605" rel="nofollow">a summary of Mousavi's latest.
See http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hgSur8od3Lq7ghaqgBlBVg_ZvtBA" rel="nofollow">THIS from AFP.
Larijani's playing an interesting, though dangerous game. This anti-US boilerplate/paranoia is really astounding. Thing is, many Western allies feared/fear the US was going too slow/soft on this.
If talks do break down, and Larijani seems to want to scuttle them altogether, I don't think Iran will get another BETTER opportunity.
Its interesting to see if Larijani is representing the views of the SL`s office or Hashemi`s. I suspect Larijani`s tough talk will get reactions from Israel.
1610 Update
"Mousavi’s latest communique isn’t worth noting for its content — it is a rather stale critique of current basij actions and dubious nostalgic take on the “good old days” of his premiership, when political repression was far higher than now."
This is why the Greenies look like hypocritical liars with Zero credibility. As the stament above accurately points out political repression was much harsher when Mousavi was Prime Minister than it is now. And it was all approved by Imam Khomeini.
Now the Greens present the early Revolutionary period as a "democratic" paradise and the Ayatollah Khomeini as a "reformer".
In line with this I hope everyone buys my new book "Genghis Khan: a TRUE PACIFIST" where I reveal the true peaceful nature of the man. This will be followed by my second book "Attila the Hun: precursor to Ghandi".
Little note: The Web update of Persepolis is based on the work by Marjane Satrapi, not actually made by her. However, given the style&tone of her memoir, I think she doesn't mind this adaptation and shares the view expressed there.
Samuel
Your quote is from "an unnamed EA correspondent". I am uncertain of it's accuracy - possibly others may be able to further educate me. However, to transpose that statement across to the thoughts of all "Greenies" is a long stretch. As a distant observer,
it seems to me that there are many "Greenies" who are none too keen on Mousavi - and wish to leave him behind. It also seems to me that there are many who have already left him behind.
I am also a little surprised in your statement about Imam Khomenei - harsh political oppression approved by Imam Khomenei?? Is that a fact?? Are you supporting that or condemning it?
Barry
Barry,
EA posted the quote as one of its updates that is all I can say to that. I agree with its second part. The Revolution was at war with Saddam Hussein and internally it had to deal with groups like the MoK that were allied with Iraq/Saddam. There was political repression which to my mind was fully justified. And it was approved by the Ayatollah Khomeini. I have said many times that Khomeini was a real hardliner compared with the SL and AN.
I agree with you that some Green supporters despise the Current Green Leadership. Megan who posts on this board often with colorful bloody language concerning her fantasies about what should happen, physically, to the leadership of the Revolution would be one such example.
I respect those declared enemies of the Revolution who openly and honestly express their hatred for religion, the Revolution, the doctrines and legacy of Imam Khomeini. I would also respect those, like the MoK, who would advocate armed conflict to destroy the Revolution even as I want to see such efforts crushed. They are enemies but they are honest about their beliefs and willing to fight for those beliefs.
What I don't respect, and neither should anyone else, is leaders like Mousavi and K and K, who pretend to support the Revolution and Imam Khomeni even as they strive to destroy the same Revolution. Those who give us a portrayal of a Khomeini who never existed on Earth, not in Tehran, or in France or in Najaf, Iraq. Those like Khatami who unilaterally stopped nuclear enrichment for several years while president and now criticize AN for being too accomodating to the west on the Nuclear Issue.
My thanks to everyone who has pointed out my error in saying Satrapi is the author of this update. I too think she fully shares the sentiment of Persepolis 2.0.
Scott