The Latest from Iran (30 November): Nuclear Distraction, Trashing the Greens?

1915 GMT: Quiet Engagement. News is just emerging of five British nationals who have been held by Iran since their yacht Sail Bahrain strayed into Iranian waters on Wednesday.

The significance behind the headline is that the story was kept quiet for five days. That indicates that Britain does not want the matter to escalate into confrontation and that Iran, for now, does not want to use the detention for political advantage.

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The Latest from Iran (29 November): Iran’s Nuclear Bluff

1830 GMT: Just for the Nuclear Record. Iranian Foreign Manouchehr Mottaki used a press conference with the Russian Energy Minister (who confirmed Moscow's intention to complete the Bushehr nuclear plant by March 2010) to denounce the IAEA resolution:

We could not find any logical reason for the Board of Governors' decision. We cannot accept discrimination in international relations. Either there are rights or such rights do not exist. The age of discriminatory policies is over. This is the law of the jungle.

Nothing surprising here and no further indication as to Iran's next step.

1625 GMT: Mehdi Karoubi, in an interview on his website Tagheerwebsite (official website of Etemad-Melli party), responded to accusations from Kayhan newspaper:

I really did not want to point out the arrogance of these guys but when I saw that they repeatedly are talking about “conspiracy”, denying their role in the events after the election, and are influencing the Judiciary system, I decided to respond....My message to the management of Kayhan newspaper is that the our interpretation of Islam is different than yours.

1610 GMT: President Postponed. It appears that President Ahmadinejad's national broadcast (see 0715 GMT) has been postponed to Tuesday night.

1555 GMT: A Detainee Speaks. Amidst a slower afternoon, interesting revelations from Behzad Nabavi, the high-profile reform activist who has recently been given a six-year prison sentence. Nabavi is free on a 10-day release pending appeal: "They asked me the night before my release to sign a paper and agree not to engage in political activities or conduct interviews until the appeals court hearing; they told me not to meet or contact political parties and organizations, but I refused. When they couldn't close the deal with me they gave me [only] a 10-day break from prison [instead]."

Nabavi claimed that the former Tehran Prosecutor General, Saeed Mortazavi, was present for at least one of his interrogations. He also claims that his arrest warrant had been issued on 9 June, three days before the Presidential elections (and six days before the supposed basis for his "crime", presence at the mass demonstration on 15 June).

1255 GMT: Larijani Baffles (Part 2). I have a hunch --- and nothing more -- that Ali Larijani, with his statement on the nuclear programme this morning, is setting himself up as an alternative to President Ahmadinejad, both for elements in the Iranian establishment and for the "West".

But who is the target of this Larijani statement, keeping in mind the shaky translation of the Iranian Labour News Agency: "Commenting on the post-election events, the speaker remarked that the unjustified persistence of certain people on their own views would only benefit others"?

1220 GMT: Report that journalist Hengameh Shahidi has been sentenced to six years, three months, and one day in prison.

1204 GMT: Larijani Baffles. Press TV has summarised this morning's comments by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani:

I believe there is still room for diplomacy and it is useful for them [the "5+1 powers] to adopt a diplomatic option. That way Iran would be able to make progress within the framework of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) while they would also be certain that Iran activities are peaceful. But of course, if they choose to take a different path Iran would also adopt a different stance.

Here's what puzzles me: given Larijani's hostility to the diplomatic process pursued by the Ahmadinejad Government in recent months, criticising apparent Iranian concessions, why is he now embracing "room for diplomacy"? Why not celebrate the apparent demise of the Ahmadinejad strategy?

Suggestions welcomed.

1200 GMT: This is Interesting. Just over a week before the protests of 16 Azar, students from Amir Kabir University have met Mehdi Karroubi in his home.

1100 GMT: Ahmadinejad and Latin America. An EA reader points us to an intriguing discussion between Mohsen Milani, Aram Hessami and Babak Dad, "What is Ahmadinejad searching for in the USA's backyard?" The reader notes Dad's provocative speculation that one purpose of the President's recent tour of Latin America was to prepare a "safe haven" if one should be noted for him and his allies.

1020 GMT: Montazeri Criticises "lllegal" Violence. Lots of chatter this morning about a video of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri denouncing post-election violence by Basiji militia, betraying its mission “unite and mobilise everyone on the path to God not to the path of evil”.

There's more. Montazeri also implicitly attacks the Supreme Leader for his thanks to the Basiji for "defeating the enemy in the events after election”: “Isn’t it a misery that one [i.e., the Basiji] goes to hell (in afterlife) for the wellbeing of others in this world?!” (Summary of remarks on Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi)

0940 GMT: You Might Want to Be More Subtle. The head of Iran's nuclear organisation, Ali Akhbar Salehi, kind of gives the political game away today:

We had no plan to build many nuclear sites like Natanz [enrichment facility but it seems that the West do not want to comprehend Iran's message of peace. The West adopted an attitude toward Iran which made the Iranian government to pass the ratification on construction of ten sites.

Hmm....So you haven't make any previous moves to build beyond the enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordoo but now you've going to throw all your resources at a crash construction programme because of Friday's IAEA resolution?

Wouldn't back Salehi as a poker player: this is either clumsy deception --- Iran has already started on other sites --- or clumsy bluff.

0930 GMT: We've posted the second part of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari's interview with CNN. We've also been moved by his comments on the Green movement(s) to consider again how Washington may be viewing (and belittling) the opposition.

0810 GMT: Blackout. Fears are growing that, in addition to "containing" the protest of 16 Azar (7 December) through a 48-hour holiday just before it, the Government may try to pull the curtains down on it through a cutoff of Internet and mobile phone service.

0730 GMT: Sigh. The coverage of Iran this morning on the BBC's flagship radio programme? Declare "time is running out" for Tehran, then turn over seven minutes of airtime just after 7 a.m. to the Israeli Ambassador to the UK, Ron Prosor for comments such as: "Iranians are not just carpet makers but carpet weavers; they will divide one red line into 100 pink lines and then cross the red line"; "Israel's nuclear capability is irrelevant in the current situation"; "all options are on the table".

0720 GMT: Russia Mending Political/Nuclear Fences? Russian energy minister Sergei Shmatko, in Iran for talks with his Iranian counterpart and other officials, has pledged that Iran's first nuclear power station will soon be completely. Shmatko said earlier this month that the Bushehr plant would be delayed beyond its announced opening date of the end of 2009.

The political significance of Shmatko's statement overshadows the technical dimension: days after supporting the International Atomic Energy Agency resolution, Moscow is tacking back politically towards Iran. That means some continuing level of co-operation (though the Russians can always dangle and pull back support) and no sanctions.

0715 GMT: President Ahmadinejad will speak on national television this evening.

0645 GMT: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is now holding a press conference on Iranian television.

0630 GMT: Reality Check. Here are two reasons, courtesy of Gary Sick, why the Iran Government's nuclear announcement is "all mouth and no trousers".

The declaration of 10 enrichment plants is for 500,000 centrifuges. In the last nine years, Iran has constructed and installed fewer than 9000 centrifuges, of which only about half are operating. At that rate, the plans announced yesterday will be completed in the year 2509.

According to documents, construction began on the second enrichment site at Fordoo in 2003. There are still no centrifuges installed, and the site is due for completion in 2011.

At that rate, 10 enrichment plants would take 80 years to construct, if they were built one after another. If they were all pursued at the same time, it would put great strain on Iranian resources and manpower, to say the least. What's more, the proposed plants would be the same size as Iran's primary enrichment facility at Natanz, much larger than Fordoo.

0610 GMT: One week before the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December), but all the headlines are far away from the internal conflict in Iran. The Ahmadinejad Government's declaration of "10 new enrichment plants" has successfully walked the international media down a nuclear garden path, even though the proposal at this point is a fantasy. In addition to our coverage in yesterday's updates, we'll have further analysis laying out both the technical and political realities later this morning.

However, while Tehran's move is political symbolism, it reinforces the mood in the US that engagement is now a long-shot. A clear sign of that is in Trita Parsi's piece for The Huffington Post, "Washington Can Give An Israeli Attack On Iran The Red Light". That headline in itself is a hyperbolic diversion --- for reasons beyond the Obama Administration, Israel will not be launching military operations --- but it shows that Parsi, the President of the National Iranian American Council and a fervent supporter of a political settlement with Iran, has now all but given up on the process.

The Latest on Iran (28 November): Turning Attention Back to Tehran

1945 GMT: Reports that today's gathering of mothers of political prisoners, held every Saturday in Laleh Park in Tehran, was attacked by security forces with tear gas. Despite the assault, 150 people participated.

1915 GMT: The Revolutionary Guard Posturing. It comes from commander Mohammad Ali Jafari: "The era of threatening Iran with force is over, especially at a time when the majority of Iranians are willing to defend the Revolution and their country."

Speaking in Shiraz, Jafari added that the intimidation "even failed at the height of the nuclear issue, and now Iran is standing firm despite economic, political and cultural pressures".

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The Latest from Iran (27 November): Where Now?

1815 GMT: Tough talk. The Associated Press is featuring a statement by Mohammad Karimirad, a member of Parliament's National Security Commission, declaring that Iran should block IAEA inspections and consider withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The media are also noting hostile statements from the Revolutionary Guard.

All this is to be expected, both in the posturing and in the reaction of Western media. None of it means much at this stage. Wait for a signal from the Iranian Government on its next step in the uranium enrichment discussions.

1715 GMT: My thanks to EA reader Samuel for pointing out that Ahmad Khatami's denunciation of the IAEA resolution was made today and not during Friday Prayers. My apiologies to readers for my error.

1330 GMT: Offensive Images. At left is the picture --- a tourist advertisement with a Baha'i temple --- that led to the banning of Hamshahri, the prominent newspaper linked to Tehran mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.

1320 GMT: Press TV's website has now posted a summary of Ahmad Khatami's Friday Prayer attack on the IAEA resolution on Iran's nuclear programme: "Rather than hurting Iran, the new resolution will impair the UN nuclear watchdog and Security Council."

So nothing significantly new there. Instead, this question: why did it take Press TV 24 hours to post news from Friday Prayers?

0920 GMT: Friday Prayers and Nukes. Agence France Presse notes that Ahmad Khatami, leading Friday prayers in Tehran, put in his two cents on the nuclear talks:

It is your obligation, under the law, to provide fuel for the Tehran reactor. If you did this, the issue would be closed. If you do not cooperate you should know that the nation ... which achieved its rights to technology will also provide fuel for its reactor. It is legal and in accordance with international safeguards.

0900 GMT: Don't Mention Neda. Two weeks ago we noted that Queen's College, Oxford University, had established a postgraduate scholarship in philosophy in the name of Neda Agha Soltan, the philosophy student killed on 20 June by a Basiji gunshot.

Well, it appears that it's not only the Iranian Government that is unhappy with the endowment:

A senior [British] diplomatic source said that the Government would have advised Queen’s College not to set up the scholarship when Britain is desperately trying to free local embassy staff in Iran who have been detained by the regime for their alleged involvement in the protests.

“If we were asked, we would have advised against it because it was always going to be deemed as provocative by the Iranian Government,” the source said. “But Oxford University did not ask us about setting up the scholarship, and does not have to because it is an independent educational institution.”

The diplomatic signal here for Tehran is that the scholarship is in no way "official" and should not be seen as pressure by the British Government over Iran's internal developments.

0815 GMT: With media attention primarily on Iran's nuclear programme and the International Atomic Energy Agency meeting, we've had to give over time and space to an analysis pointing out the real significance of the IAEA resolution, unnoticed by the headline media: the US Government has just bought some more time to try and get an "engagement" deal on uranium enrichment.

Time to return to Iran, however, and notice the simmering within the Establishment. In Qom, Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli announced from the podium that the Friday Prayer was his last. The declaration was one of sadness and frustration: “When the Friday Imam articulates the problems that people face and those problems are resolved, it is evidence that he has expressed them well. But if the problems are not resolved that means he was not successful.”

Javadi-Amoli's decision is a setback for those seeking voices of reconciliation, but it is also a marker of the discontent amongst Iran's clerics. Another leading Qom Friday Prayer leader, Ayatollah Ostadi, had also suspended his sermons after denouncing "extremism" in support of the regime, including the Supreme Leader.

In Tehran, the curious, confusing, and significant story of the Parliamentary challenge to President Ahmadinejad took another twist yesterday. Khabar, which apparently has been suspended in print but continues to publish online, features criticism by leading members of Parliament against the Government's handling of the nuclear talks.

The Secretary of the National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, has met 40 MPs who back the Government, and Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of the National Security Commission, tried to quell the opposition with assurances that information on the negotiations will be provided. The stinger in the Khabar article, however, comes at the end: two weeks ago, when MPs "were notified [by Jalili] about the decisions made by" the Ahmadinejad Government, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and other leading principlist legislators were not invited.

The Latest from Iran (16 November): Catching Up

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The Latest from Iran (14 November): Political Fatigue?

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1740 GMT: Judge for Yourself. We've posted a copy of the IAEA report on Iran's nuclear facilities. In my opinion, it's a slap on the wrist from the Agency for Iran for not declaring the second enrichment facility before September 2009 and for saying it was begun in 2007 (the IAEA goes for 2006). The IAEA also wants an assurance there are no more nuclear surprises out there. But that, in contrast to the overblown press coverage, is about it.

1715 GMT: Iran Human Rights Voices Reports that 48 protesters detained during 13 Aban demonstrations in Shiraz went on trial on 11 November.

1653 GMT: Spin, Spin, Spinning Iran (see 1555 GMT). Some folks somewhere really want to kill off the idea of engagement by putting out the story of an Iran that breaks its agreements in pursuit of The Bomb. They hope to do so by framing the "Iran threat" in the latest International Atomic Energy report on uranium enrichment, before the IAEA discusses it on 26 November.

In The Washington Post: "A senior official said Monday that the U.N nuclear agency believes Iran plans to start enriching uranium at a previously secret facility in 2011. The official said the International Atomic Energy Agency also believes that the site near the holy city of Qom will be able to house 3,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges. The senior international official familiar with a new IAEA report said that number could allow Iran to enrich enough material to be able to arm one nuclear warhead a year. He spoke on condition of anonymity because of the restricted nature of the information."

In Bloomberg News: "The United Nations atomic agency has lost confidence that the Persian Gulf country is telling the whole truth about its nuclear program and isn’t hiding additional secret facilities. Iran’s Qom enrichment facility, revealed in a Sept 21 letter, 'reduces the level of confidence in the absence of other nuclear facilities under construction and gives rise to questions about whether there were any other nuclear facilities in Iran which had not been declared,' the International Atomic Energy Agency said today in a 7-page report obtained by Bloomberg News.

On Al Jazeera: "Iran's belated revelation of a second uranium enrichment site has raised concerns about possible further secret nuclear sites in the country. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) raised its fears in a report obtained by several news agencies on Monday."

1644 GMT: A group of activists have gathered in Shiraz to collect signatures for a statement supporting Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib, who has been an outspoken critic of the Iranian Government.

1630 GMT: The Death of the Prison Doctor. Speculation is spreading about Ramin Pourandarjan, the physician on duty at the infamous Kahrizak Prison, who was said last week to have died from a heart attack or stroke.

It is claimed that Iranian security forces did not allow any autopsy and that the funeral of the 26-year-old Pourandarjan took place with security agents present. Pourandarjan had allegedly been detained for leaking patients' files and telling close friends about the abuse of detainees and, after his released, warned against making any further revelations.

1620 GMT: Free the Journalist. More than 50 Iranian writers and journalists have signed an open letter to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, urging him to release Javad Mahzadeh. Mahzadeh was detained more than a month ago.

1615 GMT: Fearing a Loss of Control? Speaking to reformist members of Parliament, Mehdi Karroubi has urged young protesters to refrain from "violent behaviour". Following similar statements by former President Mohammad Khatami, Karroubi's advice may be an indication that opposition leaders fear an angry and frustrated movement will go further in their demonstrations of resistance.



1555 GMT: Spinning Iran. The political battle over Iran's nuclear programme --- friend or foe? --- is being played out again in the media with the framing of the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The report is the IAEA's summary of its inspection of the second uranium enrichment site near Qom. Although the IAEA itself has said it found nothing out of the ordinary, others, including sceptics within the agency, are hoping to find suspicious evidence. So they have leaked parts of the report to Reuters, who declare that the project began in 2002, paused in 2004, and resumed in 2006.

Much more interesting, however, is Reuters' headline, unsupported in the article, "Iran revelation could mean more secret sites".

1455 GMT: Russia Keeps Up Pressure. Meanwhile, Moscow --- in its role as the broker for an uranium enrichment agreement and following Sunday's warning by Presidents Obama and Medvedev that a deal needed to be completed soon --- may have just given Tehran a warning slap.

The Russians have announced that the opening of the Bushehr nuclear plant, scheduled for the end of 2009, has been delayed yet again. Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko insisted that the postponement was due to technical difficulties, but --- call us cynics --- the timing of the declaration is a bit more than curious.

1450 GMT: Who's Pushing the Nuke Talks? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

It can't get much clearer than this:

As the West continues to threaten Tehran with fresh sanctions, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad expresses readiness to enhance nuclear cooperation with Western countries.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran is ready to have constructive cooperation with Western countries on nuclear technology," Iranian Student News Agency (ISNA) quoted Ahmadinejad as saying on Monday...."Nuclear rights of the Iranian nation are non-negotiable and our nuclear cooperation and activities will be carried out within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency."

1435 GMT: Who's Pushing the Nuke Talks Inside Iran? Press TV has an intriguing post, "Turkey Still Wants Role in Iran Nuclear Deal".

The website quotes, from Turkish newspapers, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's statement that Turkey is still happy to serve as the third country in an uranium enrichment deal. Iranian uranium would shipped to Russia for enrichment and then held/reshaped by Turkey as metal plates for uses in Iran's medical research reactor. Davutoglu said, "From our point of view, the door is open. We will store that [uranium] as a kind of a trustee."

That, however, is not the significant part of the story. Rather, it's the fact that it appears at all (and indeed has been at least the second story run by Press TV on these lines in the last few days) despite the rejection by Iranian politicians of the proposal for a Turkey broker, offered by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, almost two weeks ago.

Indeed, Press TV uses Davutoglu to highlight the tension, "The Iranians trust us... but there is a great opposition within Iran. They say the problem is not Turkey, but the fact that the uranium will be taken abroad."

Which raises the question: if the deal was supposedly blocked by Tehran, why does the Turkish possibility keep re-appearing? Could it be that sources close to President Ahmadinejad are ensuring that Press TV keeps the option alive?

Although Tehran has ruled out the participation of third parties in a nuclear fuel deal with the West, Turkey says it is awaiting Iran's response on an offer to store the country's enriched uranium stockpile.
1420 GMT: We're back from our first break since 13 June in 24/7 blogging on the post-election crisis. Just catching up with the latest news inside and outside Iran: meanwhile, we have a new entry updating on the domestic political squabble in the US over the National Iranian American Committee.

Meanwhile, I have used the last 48 hours to review sources for what I hope will be a major re-evaluation of the Obama Administration's approach to the Iranian Government the nuclear talks, and the Green Movement. The aim is to post this tomorrow but here's a teaser:

1. IT'S THE NUKES, STUPID --- "The driving force for the Obama Administration's approach to Iran is the quest for an agreement on uranium enrichment."

2. GETTING THE GREEN MOVEMENT WRONG --- "What is astounding is how a Washington distraction, an appearance by Ataollah Mohajerani at a conference, became the foundation for some in the CIA to bury and/or fear the Green movement."

3. THE MYTH OF THE PLAN B: SANCTIONS --- "How can a stricter round of sanctions, if nuclear talks break down, change Ayatollah Khamenei's positions?"

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The Latest from Iran (12 November): Ahmadinejad Moves for Nuclear Deal

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1805 GMT: Another Move for the Nuke Deal. Looks like the Ahmadinejad-military axis has put down another marker with the statement of the head of Iran’s armed forces, Major-General Hassan Firouzabadi, supporting the uranium enrichment agreement: “We will not suffer a loss from the exchange of fuel. Rather, in obtaining fuel enriched to 20 percent as needed by the reactors, nearly one million of our people would take advantage of its medical possibilities annually....The quantity of 3.5 percent enriched uranium [to be shipped out] is not so large as to cause damage to Iran’s supply."

1605 GMT: What's Happening at the Revolutionary Guard? Radio Fardi summarises the changes in higher commander at the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, including the head of the Tehran command. I'll have to leave it to others to assess whether these are "normal" changes in the organisation or whether there is a political story behind them.

1515 GMT: Confidence or Concern? Reuters has now picked up the statement of Mojtaba Zolnour, a representative of the Supreme Leader in the Revolutionary Guard, that the Assembly of Experts cannot remove him from office.

Zolnour told a gathering of Khamenei's representatives in Iranian universities, "The members of the assembly...do not appoint the Supreme Leader, rather they discover him and it is not that they would be able to remove him any time they wish so."

Now is Zolnour saying this because he is feeling good that the Supreme Leader is secure in his seat of power or is his warning prompted by fears that members of the Assembly, who raised the possibility of removal in August/September, may not be pacified?



1500 GMT: Football Story of Day. Or maybe, thanks to the Green movement, a non-story because there was a non-crowd. Persian2English writes about a disappointing turnout for the Iran v. Iceland match in Azadi stadium on Tuesday, citing state media: “In spite of efforts...to have spectators show up in the stadium, only 100 attended to watch the match between the two countries' national teams." (Goal.com say "only a few hundred" turned up to watch a "low-key friendly".)

1400 GMT: We've posted a long statement, adapted from the website linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi, made by former President Mohammad Khatami to academics. Khatami appears to be going to great lengths to set out "legitimate" protest (as opposed to "radical" activity) criticising the failure of the Government to serve the Iranian people and uphold the Constitution.

1315 GMT: Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has announced that Shapour Kazemi, the brother of Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard, will be tried in Revolutionary Court.

1200 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Report.

Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the former head of the Guardian Council, used his speech to put 13 Aban in the "right" context. The presence of students has demonstrated the Revolution's resolve against the "enemy flag" of the United States. Washington also gave Jannati the opportunity to attack the Iranian opposition --- despite the fact that he did not see them on 13 Aban --- "$55 million" authorised by the US for subversive activities.

1100 GMT: Persian2English reports on the Revolutionary Court's sentencing of Hassan Salamat, a master’s student at Tehran University, to four years in prison. Salamat was arrested in post-election protests on charges of "propagating aganist the regime and conspiracy to disrupt national security". He spent two months in Evin Prison before being released on $200,000 bail.

1010 GMT: An intriguing interview with Tehran Chief Prosecutor Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi on the Islamic Republic News Agency website. It's intriguing in part because Doulatabadi is clearly on the defensive about allegations of abuses by the regime. He admits that the Constitution in principle puts forth open trials but gives a convoluted explanation as to why this is not possible. He also expresses the hope that some trials can be completed in the next month.

Even more interesting, however, is the politics in the interview. Pointing to the regime's ongoing manoeuvres against former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, Doulatabadi says Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi --- accused in the first Tehran trial of corruption and intrigue in the Preisdential election --- should return from Britain to Iran if he believes the charges are false.

0825 GMT: Just catching up with news this morning.

Both The New York Times and Press TV share an interest in the seizure by US Federal prosecutors of properties, including the land where four mosques sit, of the Alavi Foundation. The prosecutors claim that the Foundation, whose 36-story office tower is also being taken, is illegally providing money and other services to Iran.

The Los Angeles Times goes instead for The Bomb, with a survey considering the reactions of Arab states and people to Iran's nuclear programme.

As for us, we're starting the day with two features outlining our concern over "Western" images of the Green Wave, which may point to a US Government policy shifting against the Iranian opposition: "Why is Washington Belittling the Green Movement?" and "Is This an 'Unravelling' Protest Beyond Mousavi and Karroubi?"

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The Latest from Iran (11 November): Revelations & Connections

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1900 GMT: An EA source tips us off to an on-line presentation from last month, "Debating Engagement: A Critical Dialogue on Iran and the Peace Movement".

1820 GMT: Iran's state Arabic-language satellite service Al-Alam is on air again after the French company Eutelsat agreed to carry its programmes. Al-Alam's former providers, the Saudi- and Egypt-based Arabsat and Nilesat, withdrew on 3 November.

1620 GMT: Families of political prisoners have gathered for the third time in front of offices of Iran's judiciary, calling for the release of all political prisoners and demanding the administration of law and justice for all. The families met representatives of the judiciary but failed to get an audience with the head of the judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.

At the end of this gathering, the families asked for the immediate release of those arrested during prayer and of innocent women. They called for “conducting public fair trials”, “allowing the prisoners to have the right of choosing their lawyers and naming those who are obstructing this right”, “identifying those who are putting pressure on some of the post-election prisoners’ families”, and “expediting court hearings and immediate release of those imprisoned with reduced bail".

1545 GMT: Punishing the Protesters. Pictures of orders banning students from their dormitories are now circulating on the Internet.

1535 GMT: For My Next Trick, I Will Solve Traffic Jams. This is either political genius or massive overconfidence: in the midst of conflicts over the economy, the nuclear issues, and his own legitimacy, President Ahmadinejad has declared his urgent priority to clear Tehran's roads: "We have solutions for Tehran and I believe I will soon have to personally intervene in Tehran's issues because I see that the traffic situation is making our citizens suffer."

Go a bit deeper, and you'll find a political battle which is far more than Mahmoud jumping into the middle of the Modarres Expressway to direct traffic. This is another play for power against an opponent within the establishment, in this case, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer-Qalibaf:

Ahmadinejad went on to say that his administration plans to take over the control of the Tehran Metro Company from the municipality. The remarks came as the Tehran Municipality and government are in disagreement about providing the capital's subway system with state subsidies. The president also called on...Qalibaf and the Tehran City Council to agree with shifting the management of the metro to the government.

1110 GMT: Responsible Journalism? Marc Champion of The Wall Street Journal offers the dramatic story, "Revolutionary Guard Tightens Security Grip":

Seven different agencies have now been subordinated to...the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, gutting the intelligence ministry of power....The seven agencies include the old intelligence directorate of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as its cyberdefense unit; the intelligence directorate of the Basij; parts of the now-gutted intelligence ministry; Mr. Khamenei's own intelligence unit, known as Office 101; and the plainclothes units and Tehran Revolutionary Guard headquarters tasked with controlling street protests in the capital.he seven agencies include the old intelligence directorate of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as its cyberdefense unit; the intelligence directorate of the Basij; parts of the now-gutted intelligence ministry; Mr. Khamenei's own intelligence unit, known as Office 101; and the plainclothes units and Tehran Revolutionary Guard headquarters tasked with controlling street protests in the capital.

Pretty serious news. Only problem is that Champion's information, initially cited as "interviews with Iranian analysts and opposition figures, along with recent government announcements", turns out to be a single source: Maryam Rajavi of the opposition group National Council for Resistance in Iran.

At no point does Champion note that the NCRI is the political arm of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, the group which for 30 years has sought the overthrow of the Iranian regime through violence and assassinations (he does put the qualification, "The NCRI is listed in the U.S. as a terrorist organization, though not in Europe). And nowhere does he notes that the NCRI --- as the group that he says is "responsible for exposing much of Iran's controversial nuclear-fuel program" --- has also been challenged over the years for providing distorted and inaccurate information.

1100 GMT: More University Protests (see 1000 GMT). Video has come in of yesterday's protest at Khaje Nasir University, where demonstrations have been occurring on a daily basis for more than a week.

1015 GMT: So Much for the Lull --- Ahmadi's Nuclear Push. Press TV summarises President Ahmadinejad's televised interview on Wednesday night as a claim that "the West has retreated in its nuclear dispute with Tehran, as it is no longer talking of suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment activities".

Ahmadinejad, declared, "We have now entered a stage of cooperation. At the moment, one of the key issues is Iran's participation in projects such as the international [nuclear] fuel bank or reactor and plant construction. There is no more talk of suspension. We have reached a stage where we are cooperating, on a high level, with other countries that have the technology through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)."

Interpretation? This is the clear indication that the President doesn't just want continued nuclear discussions; he's looking for a deal. He is setting up the presentation that an agreement on enrichment in a third country, accompanied by acceptance of Iran into international projects, will be a great "victory" with the West bowing down and recognising Tehran's as a nuclear power. This would be a triumph of Iran's enemies, as "Israelis and a number of Western countries are angry about [the discussions]. They are trying to prevent us from forming cooperation. They want the talks to break down and end in dispute."

So on to the next questions. How do Ahmadinejad's opponents, not just within the reformist movement but within the establishment (Ali Larijani, the ball's in your court) react? Where is Hashemi Rafsanjani? And what does the Supreme Leader say/fail to say in response?

1000 GMT: University Protests. There is now video confirmation of a demonstration at Elm-o-Sanat University (Iran University of Science and Technology) in Tehran. HomyLafayette adds the observation that http://www.iust.ac.ir/ is considered a base of support for President Ahmadinejad and the regime and that the Supreme Leader maintains an office on the campus.

0900 GMT: Catching up on the morning headlines in Iranian state media, it appears they have uncovered a nasty plot to overthrow the Iranian system coming out of the revolutionary hotbed of Cleveland, Ohio. We've got the story.

0745 GMT: A quiet start to the day. There is little political movement from either the Government or the opposition. It appears that President Ahmadinejad's immediate priority is to get Parliamentary approval of his proposals for subsidy reform, with the internal tensions over nuclear talks put aside over the last 48 hours.

Meanwhile, surprisingly little follow-up on the Mousavi message on Monday to Jamaran. I am uncertain as to whether this is because knowledge of it inside Iran has been restricted, because the statement has not sparked as much interest as Mousavi's previous declaration, or for another reason. Mehdi Karroubi has been relatively muted in recent days, and other reformist groups have been curbed in their public positions because of Government pressure.

That leaves, it appears, the simmering protest on university campuses to prop up interest and spirits. And, however quiet it may be for the moment, there is always the beacon of 16 Azar (7 December).