The Latest on Iran (28 November): Turning Attention Back to Tehran

1945 GMT: Reports that today's gathering of mothers of political prisoners, held every Saturday in Laleh Park in Tehran, was attacked by security forces with tear gas. Despite the assault, 150 people participated.

1915 GMT: The Revolutionary Guard Posturing. It comes from commander Mohammad Ali Jafari: "The era of threatening Iran with force is over, especially at a time when the majority of Iranians are willing to defend the Revolution and their country."

Speaking in Shiraz, Jafari added that the intimidation "even failed at the height of the nuclear issue, and now Iran is standing firm despite economic, political and cultural pressures".

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Iran: Where Now for the Green Wave(s)? The EA Discussion
The Latest from Iran (27 November): Where Now?

1815 GMT: Tough talk. The Associated Press is featuring a statement by Mohammad Karimirad, a member of Parliament's National Security Commission, declaring that Iran should block IAEA inspections and consider withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The media are also noting hostile statements from the Revolutionary Guard.

All this is to be expected, both in the posturing and in the reaction of Western media. None of it means much at this stage. Wait for a signal from the Iranian Government on its next step in the uranium enrichment discussions.

1715 GMT: My thanks to EA reader Samuel for pointing out that Ahmad Khatami's denunciation of the IAEA resolution was made today and not during Friday Prayers. My apiologies to readers for my error.

1330 GMT: Offensive Images. At left is the picture --- a tourist advertisement with a Baha'i temple --- that led to the banning of Hamshahri, the prominent newspaper linked to Tehran mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.

1320 GMT: Press TV's website has now posted a summary of Ahmad Khatami's Friday Prayer attack on the IAEA resolution on Iran's nuclear programme: "Rather than hurting Iran, the new resolution will impair the UN nuclear watchdog and Security Council."

So nothing significantly new there. Instead, this question: why did it take Press TV 24 hours to post news from Friday Prayers?

0920 GMT: Friday Prayers and Nukes. Agence France Presse notes that Ahmad Khatami, leading Friday prayers in Tehran, put in his two cents on the nuclear talks:

It is your obligation, under the law, to provide fuel for the Tehran reactor. If you did this, the issue would be closed. If you do not cooperate you should know that the nation ... which achieved its rights to technology will also provide fuel for its reactor. It is legal and in accordance with international safeguards.

0900 GMT: Don't Mention Neda. Two weeks ago we noted that Queen's College, Oxford University, had established a postgraduate scholarship in philosophy in the name of Neda Agha Soltan, the philosophy student killed on 20 June by a Basiji gunshot.

Well, it appears that it's not only the Iranian Government that is unhappy with the endowment:

A senior [British] diplomatic source said that the Government would have advised Queen’s College not to set up the scholarship when Britain is desperately trying to free local embassy staff in Iran who have been detained by the regime for their alleged involvement in the protests.

“If we were asked, we would have advised against it because it was always going to be deemed as provocative by the Iranian Government,” the source said. “But Oxford University did not ask us about setting up the scholarship, and does not have to because it is an independent educational institution.”

The diplomatic signal here for Tehran is that the scholarship is in no way "official" and should not be seen as pressure by the British Government over Iran's internal developments.

0815 GMT: With media attention primarily on Iran's nuclear programme and the International Atomic Energy Agency meeting, we've had to give over time and space to an analysis pointing out the real significance of the IAEA resolution, unnoticed by the headline media: the US Government has just bought some more time to try and get an "engagement" deal on uranium enrichment.

Time to return to Iran, however, and notice the simmering within the Establishment. In Qom, Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli announced from the podium that the Friday Prayer was his last. The declaration was one of sadness and frustration: “When the Friday Imam articulates the problems that people face and those problems are resolved, it is evidence that he has expressed them well. But if the problems are not resolved that means he was not successful.”

Javadi-Amoli's decision is a setback for those seeking voices of reconciliation, but it is also a marker of the discontent amongst Iran's clerics. Another leading Qom Friday Prayer leader, Ayatollah Ostadi, had also suspended his sermons after denouncing "extremism" in support of the regime, including the Supreme Leader.

In Tehran, the curious, confusing, and significant story of the Parliamentary challenge to President Ahmadinejad took another twist yesterday. Khabar, which apparently has been suspended in print but continues to publish online, features criticism by leading members of Parliament against the Government's handling of the nuclear talks.

The Secretary of the National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, has met 40 MPs who back the Government, and Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of the National Security Commission, tried to quell the opposition with assurances that information on the negotiations will be provided. The stinger in the Khabar article, however, comes at the end: two weeks ago, when MPs "were notified [by Jalili] about the decisions made by" the Ahmadinejad Government, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and other leading principlist legislators were not invited.

The Latest from Iran (27 November): Where Now?

2020 GMT: We've posted news of a campaign, "I Am Atefeh", to express support for Atefeh Nabavi, the first woman jailed for post-election protest.

2015 GMT: Ayatollah JavAdi-Amoli announced, during today's Friday Prayers in Qom, that this was his last sermon. Since June, Javadi-Amoli had expressed his displeasure over post-election events.

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The Latest from Iran (26 November): Corridors of Conflict

1815 GMT: One More Time --- The Talks Go On (But Time for Tehran to Deal). Here's the White House statement on today's IAEA resolution:

Today's overwhelming vote at the IAEA's Board of Governors demonstrates the resolve and unity of the international community with regard to Iran's nuclear program. It underscores broad consensus in calling upon Iran to live up to its international obligations and offer transparency in its nuclear program. It also underscores a commitment to strengthen the rules of the international system, and to support the ability of the IAEA and UN Security Council to enforce the rules of the road, and to hold Iran accountable to those rules. Indeed, the fact that 25 countries from all parts of the world cast their votes in favor shows the urgent need for Iran to address the growing international deficit of confidence in its intentions.

The United States has strongly supported the Director General’s positive proposal to provide Iran fuel for its Tehran Research Reactor - a proposal intended to help meet the medical and humanitarian needs of the Iranian people while building confidence in Iran’s intentions. The United States has recognized Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy and remains willing to engage Iran to work toward a diplomatic solution to the concerns about its nuclear program, if - and only if - Iran chooses such a course. To date, Iran has refused a follow-on meeting to the October 1 meeting with the P5+1 countries if its nuclear program is included on the agenda. Our patience and that of the international community is limited, and time is running out. If Iran refuses to meet its obligations, then it will be responsible for its own growing isolation and the consequences.

Here's what it means:

1. The second enrichment plant at Fordoo near Qom --- of no relevance except as pretext;
2. The El Baradei statement of a "dead end" on verification --- tangential
3. The Iranian response to the Vienna "third-party enrichment" deal --- the be-all and end-all of this meeting.

In other words, this IAEA meeting has been a two-day setpiece to put Tehran's feet to the fire on the October proposal. If Iran now refuses that plan, and if the "West" decides that the Tehran counter-offer of a "swap" is out of bounds, then and only then will there a move beyond engagement. Even then, it is far from clear if that push for sanctions will have any backing from Russia and China.

1455 GMT: Forgive us for being Nukes, Nukes, Nukes, but little else is breaking at the moment. More posturing, this time from Iran's ambassador to the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh, but note that this follows script of keeping channel open for discussions --- "jeopardise" is a mild democratic warning not to go farther:

.Adoption of this resolution is not only unhelpful in improving the current situation, but it will jeopardise the conducive environment vitally needed for success in the process of Geneva and Vienna negotiations expected to lead to a common understanding.

1355 GMT: At some point someone is going to figure out that IAEA members have not forced a showdown with Iran and, indeed, that they have not even moved away from talks and towards further sanctions. Here's the latest coded signal, courtesy of British Foreign Secretary David Miliband:

The resolution passed today by the IAEA Board of Governors sends the strongest possible signal to Iran that its actions and intentions remain a matter of grave international concern. As the resolution makes clear, Iran needs to comply with its obligations both to the IAEA and to the UNSC. Unless it does this, it remains impossible for the international community to have any confidence in Iranian intentions.

Britain and the other members of the E3+3 have made it very clear that our hand is stretched out to Iran. We are waiting for Iran to respond meaningfully. But if it is clear that Iran has chosen not to do so, we will have no alternative but to consider further pressure on Iran, in line with the dual track policy we have been pursuing.

And this position is not altered by Prime Minister Gordon Brown's rhetorical blast: "[Iran] should accept the offers that have been made that they can have civil nuclear power with our support, but they've got to renounce nuclear weapons. I believe the next stage will have to be sanctions if Iran does not respond to what is a very clear vote from the world community."

1210 GMT: We've just posted an urgent assessment on the International Atomic Energy Agency's resolution, passed today, on Iran's nuclear programme. The real significance --- and this is being missed by the media, who are just following the original Reuters report (see Al Jazeera English, for example) --- is that it is a very mild rebuke of Iran. That in turn means talks with Tehran on uranium enrichment are still alive.

1120 GMT: Iran's Nobel Prize Response. We saw this one coming yesterday when we reported on the Iranian Government's seizure of the Nobel Peace Prize medal and diploma of lawyer and human rights activist Shirin Ebadi. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast said today, "Much the same as European countries, tax evasion is a crime in Iran and individuals would face legal penalties should they commit such an act."

Mehman-Parast added that if Norwegian officials really cared about human rights, they would not have abstained in the United Nations vote on the Goldstone Report on the Gaza War.

1023 GMT: Filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf has won the Freedom to Create Prize, donating the $125,000 prize to non-governmental organisations helping victims of Iran's post-election conflict and dedicating the award to Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. A video of the presentation has been posted on YouTube.

0955 GMT: Nuke Update. Nothing yet coming out of the International Atomic Energy Agency meeting in Vienna. The media, as in this CNN report, is just recycling yesterday's leaked soundbite of Mohammad El Baradei's statement that IAEA analysis of Iran's nuclear status is at a "dead end".

0945 GMT: Dutch television has obtained an interview with Mehdi Karroubi. The exchange is in Farsi with Dutch subtitles.

0830 GMT: Morning Media Moment. Emily Landau of The Jerusalem Post gets in a pre-emptive strike of fanciful "analysis" with her claim, "Dangerous Misreading Iran". That "misreading" is any thought that Iran's position in the nuclear talks is affected by internal development and, in particular, the post-12 June tensions:

The confusion emanating from Iran is simply the most recent manifestation of a well-known pattern that has been repeated in different forms for close to seven years. The "yes, no, maybe" answers from Iran are the tactic that serves its overall strategy in the nuclear realm.

Which would be a fair hypothesis if Landau produced a paragraph, a sentence, even a few words setting out this "well-known pattern". She doesn't.

The serious point here is a leading Israeli academic, "the director of the Arms Control and Regional Security Project, Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University", could show not one scrap of perception about the internal dynamics behind Iran's nuclear programme and foreign policy. Instead, "analysis" rests on the unshakeable position: There Cannot (and Should Not) Be a Deal with Iran.

At least the headline's good: I just suspect it's better applied to the author than to her straw-person targets.

0755 GMT: The international media are likely to be dominated today by speculations and leaks about the second day of discussions at the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's nuclear programme.

So, before getting drawn into that issue, we've taken the time --- with the help of readers and fellow bloggers --- to post two discussions about the next steps for the Green Wave(s). The use of the plural is deliberate, as you'll soon see in the debate on the evolving nature of the movement(s); the other, equally important discussion is on non-violence as protest moves towards 16 Azar (7 December) . So is our desire in posting them, not for a conclusive answer but for reflection on how and where protest and resistance develop in this marathon conflict.