The Latest from Iran (30 November): Nuclear Distraction, Trashing the Greens?

1915 GMT: Quiet Engagement. News is just emerging of five British nationals who have been held by Iran since their yacht Sail Bahrain strayed into Iranian waters on Wednesday.

The significance behind the headline is that the story was kept quiet for five days. That indicates that Britain does not want the matter to escalate into confrontation and that Iran, for now, does not want to use the detention for political advantage.

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Today’s Iran Non-Story: Some Guy Who Looked Like Ahmadinejad Protested in 1984
Video: The Mothers of Martyrs Protest (28 November)
Iran: The Routes of 16 Azar
The Latest from Iran (29 November): Iran’s Nuclear Bluff

1830 GMT: Just for the Nuclear Record. Iranian Foreign Manouchehr Mottaki used a press conference with the Russian Energy Minister (who confirmed Moscow's intention to complete the Bushehr nuclear plant by March 2010) to denounce the IAEA resolution:

We could not find any logical reason for the Board of Governors' decision. We cannot accept discrimination in international relations. Either there are rights or such rights do not exist. The age of discriminatory policies is over. This is the law of the jungle.

Nothing surprising here and no further indication as to Iran's next step.

1625 GMT: Mehdi Karoubi, in an interview on his website Tagheerwebsite (official website of Etemad-Melli party), responded to accusations from Kayhan newspaper:

I really did not want to point out the arrogance of these guys but when I saw that they repeatedly are talking about “conspiracy”, denying their role in the events after the election, and are influencing the Judiciary system, I decided to respond....My message to the management of Kayhan newspaper is that the our interpretation of Islam is different than yours.

1610 GMT: President Postponed. It appears that President Ahmadinejad's national broadcast (see 0715 GMT) has been postponed to Tuesday night.

1555 GMT: A Detainee Speaks. Amidst a slower afternoon, interesting revelations from Behzad Nabavi, the high-profile reform activist who has recently been given a six-year prison sentence. Nabavi is free on a 10-day release pending appeal: "They asked me the night before my release to sign a paper and agree not to engage in political activities or conduct interviews until the appeals court hearing; they told me not to meet or contact political parties and organizations, but I refused. When they couldn't close the deal with me they gave me [only] a 10-day break from prison [instead]."

Nabavi claimed that the former Tehran Prosecutor General, Saeed Mortazavi, was present for at least one of his interrogations. He also claims that his arrest warrant had been issued on 9 June, three days before the Presidential elections (and six days before the supposed basis for his "crime", presence at the mass demonstration on 15 June).

1255 GMT: Larijani Baffles (Part 2). I have a hunch --- and nothing more -- that Ali Larijani, with his statement on the nuclear programme this morning, is setting himself up as an alternative to President Ahmadinejad, both for elements in the Iranian establishment and for the "West".

But who is the target of this Larijani statement, keeping in mind the shaky translation of the Iranian Labour News Agency: "Commenting on the post-election events, the speaker remarked that the unjustified persistence of certain people on their own views would only benefit others"?

1220 GMT: Report that journalist Hengameh Shahidi has been sentenced to six years, three months, and one day in prison.

1204 GMT: Larijani Baffles. Press TV has summarised this morning's comments by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani:

I believe there is still room for diplomacy and it is useful for them [the "5+1 powers] to adopt a diplomatic option. That way Iran would be able to make progress within the framework of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) while they would also be certain that Iran activities are peaceful. But of course, if they choose to take a different path Iran would also adopt a different stance.

Here's what puzzles me: given Larijani's hostility to the diplomatic process pursued by the Ahmadinejad Government in recent months, criticising apparent Iranian concessions, why is he now embracing "room for diplomacy"? Why not celebrate the apparent demise of the Ahmadinejad strategy?

Suggestions welcomed.

1200 GMT: This is Interesting. Just over a week before the protests of 16 Azar, students from Amir Kabir University have met Mehdi Karroubi in his home.

1100 GMT: Ahmadinejad and Latin America. An EA reader points us to an intriguing discussion between Mohsen Milani, Aram Hessami and Babak Dad, "What is Ahmadinejad searching for in the USA's backyard?" The reader notes Dad's provocative speculation that one purpose of the President's recent tour of Latin America was to prepare a "safe haven" if one should be noted for him and his allies.

1020 GMT: Montazeri Criticises "lllegal" Violence. Lots of chatter this morning about a video of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri denouncing post-election violence by Basiji militia, betraying its mission “unite and mobilise everyone on the path to God not to the path of evil”.

There's more. Montazeri also implicitly attacks the Supreme Leader for his thanks to the Basiji for "defeating the enemy in the events after election”: “Isn’t it a misery that one [i.e., the Basiji] goes to hell (in afterlife) for the wellbeing of others in this world?!” (Summary of remarks on Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi)

0940 GMT: You Might Want to Be More Subtle. The head of Iran's nuclear organisation, Ali Akhbar Salehi, kind of gives the political game away today:

We had no plan to build many nuclear sites like Natanz [enrichment facility but it seems that the West do not want to comprehend Iran's message of peace. The West adopted an attitude toward Iran which made the Iranian government to pass the ratification on construction of ten sites.

Hmm....So you haven't make any previous moves to build beyond the enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordoo but now you've going to throw all your resources at a crash construction programme because of Friday's IAEA resolution?

Wouldn't back Salehi as a poker player: this is either clumsy deception --- Iran has already started on other sites --- or clumsy bluff.

0930 GMT: We've posted the second part of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari's interview with CNN. We've also been moved by his comments on the Green movement(s) to consider again how Washington may be viewing (and belittling) the opposition.

0810 GMT: Blackout. Fears are growing that, in addition to "containing" the protest of 16 Azar (7 December) through a 48-hour holiday just before it, the Government may try to pull the curtains down on it through a cutoff of Internet and mobile phone service.

0730 GMT: Sigh. The coverage of Iran this morning on the BBC's flagship radio programme? Declare "time is running out" for Tehran, then turn over seven minutes of airtime just after 7 a.m. to the Israeli Ambassador to the UK, Ron Prosor for comments such as: "Iranians are not just carpet makers but carpet weavers; they will divide one red line into 100 pink lines and then cross the red line"; "Israel's nuclear capability is irrelevant in the current situation"; "all options are on the table".

0720 GMT: Russia Mending Political/Nuclear Fences? Russian energy minister Sergei Shmatko, in Iran for talks with his Iranian counterpart and other officials, has pledged that Iran's first nuclear power station will soon be completely. Shmatko said earlier this month that the Bushehr plant would be delayed beyond its announced opening date of the end of 2009.

The political significance of Shmatko's statement overshadows the technical dimension: days after supporting the International Atomic Energy Agency resolution, Moscow is tacking back politically towards Iran. That means some continuing level of co-operation (though the Russians can always dangle and pull back support) and no sanctions.

0715 GMT: President Ahmadinejad will speak on national television this evening.

0645 GMT: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is now holding a press conference on Iranian television.

0630 GMT: Reality Check. Here are two reasons, courtesy of Gary Sick, why the Iran Government's nuclear announcement is "all mouth and no trousers".

The declaration of 10 enrichment plants is for 500,000 centrifuges. In the last nine years, Iran has constructed and installed fewer than 9000 centrifuges, of which only about half are operating. At that rate, the plans announced yesterday will be completed in the year 2509.

According to documents, construction began on the second enrichment site at Fordoo in 2003. There are still no centrifuges installed, and the site is due for completion in 2011.

At that rate, 10 enrichment plants would take 80 years to construct, if they were built one after another. If they were all pursued at the same time, it would put great strain on Iranian resources and manpower, to say the least. What's more, the proposed plants would be the same size as Iran's primary enrichment facility at Natanz, much larger than Fordoo.

0610 GMT: One week before the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December), but all the headlines are far away from the internal conflict in Iran. The Ahmadinejad Government's declaration of "10 new enrichment plants" has successfully walked the international media down a nuclear garden path, even though the proposal at this point is a fantasy. In addition to our coverage in yesterday's updates, we'll have further analysis laying out both the technical and political realities later this morning.

However, while Tehran's move is political symbolism, it reinforces the mood in the US that engagement is now a long-shot. A clear sign of that is in Trita Parsi's piece for The Huffington Post, "Washington Can Give An Israeli Attack On Iran The Red Light". That headline in itself is a hyperbolic diversion --- for reasons beyond the Obama Administration, Israel will not be launching military operations --- but it shows that Parsi, the President of the National Iranian American Council and a fervent supporter of a political settlement with Iran, has now all but given up on the process.

Iran: A Nobel Gesture from Obama Towards the Green Movement?

The Newest Deal offers a bit of intriguing speculation: with the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony coming up on 10 December, will its recipient, one Barack Hussein Obama, take the occasion to note the political and human rights situation in Iran?

As President Obama's nuclear negotiations with the Islamic Republic have dragged on, there have increasingly been calls -- from the left, right, and the Iranian diaspora community -- for Obama to couple his engagement on the nuclear front with a more direct condemnation of human rights abuses occurring inside of Iran. PBS and the BBC's recent documentaries centered around the death of Neda Agha-Soltan, as well as the media blitz that has accompanied Newsweek's Maziar Bahari's release from detention in Iran, have only added to such calls.

Iran MediaWatch: Has “Green Reform” Disappeared in Washington?
The Latest from Iran (27 November): Where Now?

This month's suspicious death of an Iranian doctor who truthfully reported the results of an autopsy he performed on Mohsen Rouholamini, the son of a prominent conservative adviser to Mohsen Rezaei, has also been receiving significant coverage. (Ramin Pourandarjani, the doctor involved, had written in his report and testified to an investigatory committee that Rouholamini was tortured to death while incarcerated by Revolutionary Guard agents.) Suffice it to say, events such as these have certainly not helped the Obama administration frame the Iran issue in exclusively nuclear terms.

And so on December 10th, the stars may be aligned for President Obama will ratchet up his criticism of the Islamic Republic. Obama will be in Oslo on that date to accept his Nobel Peace Prize. By that point, the administration's self-imposed December deadline for the end of nuclear talks will have passed -- albeit due to political infighting within Iran rather than a lack of want to actually strike a deal -- and hence giving Obama yet another pretext to increase the pressure coming from Washington. The "peace" themed nature of the award, furthermore, is unlikely to be lost on many.

Making the occasion all the more fitting (not to mention symbolic) is the fact that the regime has now confiscated Shirin Ebadi's Nobel Peace Prize from her safe deposit box. (Ironically, Ms. Ebadi was recognized in 2003 for her work as a human rights attorney in Iran.) This is the first time in the prize's 108-year history that an award has been confiscated, by a state government or otherwise.

The Latest from Iran (11 November): Revelations & Connections

NEW Iran Video & Text: The Mousavi Interview with Jamaran (9 November)
NEW Iran: The Story of How Mr Ahmadinejad Met US "Spies"
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NEW Iran Video Special: Ahmadinejad & Tehran’s “$18.5 Billion in Turkey”
NEW Iran Video Special: When Khamenei Met the US Hostage (and Why It’s Important Now)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Revelations of Hashemi Rafsanjani’s Son
The Latest from Iran (10 November): Uncertainty and Propaganda

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2110 GMT: Ezatollah Zarghami has celebrated getting a five-year renewal as head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, by alleging that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi are trying to get television airtime to incite people into joining street protests. Zarghami said this would be contrary to IRIB's objectives to "establish a stable social atmosphere" and help "society out of its instability".

1820 GMT: The Economic Issue Rumbles On. In addition to other challenges, President Ahmadinejad is still facing resistance from Parliament over his subsidy reduction bill. He returned from Turkey on Tuesday to go into a meeting with lawmakers, declaring that Iran will emerge as a prosperous nation in five years if the bill is implemented in full.

1815 GMT: Post-election detainee Soheil Navidi Yekta has been sentenced to seven years in jail and 74 lashes.

1800 GMT: More Posturing. The Iranian Government has taken another swipe at France, warning Paris to quiet down over the detention of lecturer Clotilde Reiss, who is under house arrest. A Foreign Ministry spokesman declared, 'The charges against Reiss are documented and therefore there can be no acquittal on grounds of political pressure, and nobody is allowed to tell the relevant judge what to do.

1755 GMT: The Mousavi Interview. We now have the video of Mousavi's comments on Monday, the text of which we posted earlier.

1525 GMT: More Business for the Revolutionary Guard. The BBC reports that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has won a $2.5 billion contract to build a railway route linking the southeastern port of Chabahar to Iran's rail network.

The Guards' engineering wing, Khatam-ol-Anbia, has been awarded Government contracts worth billions of dollars, including the operation of Tehran's Imam Khomeini international airport, and 50 percent of Iran's national telecommunication company was bought by a consortium partly owned by a Revolutionary Guards affiliate fund.

1510 GMT: Crippling the Opposition. In a sign of the effect of Government detentions and intimidation, the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution Organisation party has postponed its annual convention because of restrictions on members. The party's senior members Behzad Nabavi, Feizollah Arab-Sorkhi, and Mostafa Tajzadeh have been detained since June. (English summary)

1500 GMT: We've posted an entry on how a comment in a US blog became the story of how "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met US spies".

1245 GMT: The "Neda Plot". As part of the ongoing campaign to portray the death of Neda Agha Soltan as a "premeditated scenario" to discredit the Iranian regime, Basij members are being summoned to gather in front of the British Embassy in Tehran to call for the extradition of Arash Hejazi, the doctor who tried to assist Neda after she was shot on 30 June. “Female Basij members are scheduled to congregate in front of the British Embassy on Wednesday at 2 p.m. local time,” Fars News reports.

1050 GMT: We awoke to reports of the hanging of Ehsan Fattahian, sentenced to death for "acting against national security with arms"and "war against God", but refrained from posting pending confirmation. That confirmation has now come from Fars News.

0900 GMT: We have posted the speech of activist Shadi Sadr accepting the "Human Rights Defenders Award" in The Netherlands: "Before the eyes of the people who are now fighting for freedom, democracy and human rights in Iran, one cannot sit at a negotiation table with a dictatorial government to speak about nuclear energy or economic contracts and talk about concrete conditions and at the same time, criticise the state of human rights in Iran through political statements which have no actual guarantee to be put into action."

0840 GMT: Not quite sure what to make of this, amidst stories of Iran's reorganisation of control over its security forces. Press TV reports, "The Leader of the Islamic Revolution has appointed Iran's interior minister as deputy commander of the country's Armed Forces in charge of police forces. In a decree issued by Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Armed Forces Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei on Tuesday, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar was handed the post of deputy commander."

0800 GMT: A slow-ish start to the day, so EA correspondents have taken the opportunity to make some important political connections in a series of videos.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's put-down of a BBC Persian correspondent, who asked about the rumoured $18.5 billion in gold shifted from Iran to Turkey, may not add much beyond a bit of drama. However, the impassioned speech of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's son Mohsen at a 17 June meeting offers important insight into the Rafsanjani-Ahmadinejad relationship.

And the footage of the Supreme Leader meeting an American hostage (now the highest-level official ever devoted specifically to Iran affairs in the US State Department) is far more than a nostalgic clip. It may point to the emerging, and special, political "engagement" between Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Obama Administration.

Of course, none of this should eclipse the significance, on the opposition side, of the discussion of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with the Khomeini-owned Jamaran website, covering the failings of the Government and the need to restore unity through a return to the Constitution. More than 36 hours after the interview was posted, we have the English translation.

The Latest from Iran (4 November --- 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s Son on 13 Aban Incidents
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 3rd Set)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 2nd Set)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 1st Set)
Text: President Obama’s Statement on Iran (4 November)
NEW Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
Latest Iran Video: Rooftop “Allahu Akhbar” Chants (3 November)
Latest Iran Video: Protests at Iranian Universities and a High School (3 November)
Iran: A Response to “What If the Green Movement Isn’t Ours?” (The Sequel)
Iran: A Response to an American Who Asks, “What if the Green Movement Isn’t ‘Ours’?
Iran: More 13 Aban Videos
The Latest from Iran (3 November): 24 Hours to Go

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2100 GMT: Today's #1 Unseen Story. With all the developments on the streets, I doubt many noticed that former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and journalist Hengameh Shahidi appeared in the Revolutionary Court today. Shahidi was released last week on $90,000 bail after going on hunger strike; Abtahi has been in detention since June.

Instead of defending herself, Shahidi asked the judge to free her friend Fariba Pajooh, whose order for detention was reaffirmed two weeks ago.

1902 GMT: Josh Shahryar, having gone through the videos and reports of today's events, estimates that 25,000 to 30,000 opposition demonstrators were on the streets of Tehran at some point during 13 Aban. An estimated 2000-3000 were marching in Isfahan, but there is not enough information yet to project the numbers in other cities.

1900 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz has posted an overview of the events of 13 Aban, the "Greenest day of the year".

1845 GMT: Following today's encounter between Mehdi Karroubi and Iranian security forces near 7 Tir Square, we've posted the video of the BBC interview with Karroubi's son.

1755 GMT: Has Press TV Joined the Cause? Really. Here is the lead of their latest report on 13 Aban, and notice who gets first billing:

Thousands of supporters of defeated presidential candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, have held a rally in the Iranian capital as the country commemorated the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover.

The main anti-government rally took place at a central square in Tehran on Wednesday, November 4, our correspondent Leila Faramarzi reported.....

Tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to commemorate the day [of the anniversary of the US Embassy takeover], dubbed as the national day of fighting global arrogance. They also decried the policy of the Obama administration towards the Islamic Republic.

1725 GMT: Reports that activist Hasan Asad Zaidabadi, student activist Ali Mashmooli, journalist Nafiseh Zare-Kohan, women's rights activist Wahideh Molavi, and politicians Hojjat Sharifi, Ali Maleehi, Mohammad Sadeghi, and Mohammad Hashemi were arrested today. Coming on top of the regime's detention of three leading members of the reformist student organisation Daftar-Takhim-Vahdat, the news is apparent confirmation of the Government's strategy to break the core of the opposition movement.

Mowj-e-Sabz has a longer list of names of some of those arrested today.

1605 GMT: We've started a third set of videos.

1555 GMT: And More Cities.... Reports now confirm protests in Kermanshah and Zahedan.

1540 GMT: Parleman News has just published a story, with excellent photos, covering the diversity of both pro-Government and opposition protests in Isfahan.

1505 GMT: More on What Happened to Mousavi (see 1315 and 1345 GMT).

Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Kalemeh reports that all communication, including cell phones and internet connections, were shut down in the area surrounding the Farhangestan Academy of Art, where Mousavi’s office is located. Dozens of plainclothes bikers, supported by security forces, gathered in front of both entrances, chanting against Mousavi. One group attacked and entered the Academy of Arts.

The attackers backed off, but Mousavi’s car, which was planning to take the leader to the rally, was prevented from exiting the Academy by the heavy presence of security forces.

1425 GMT: Regime Goes After Rafsanjani?

Sharp-eyed readers will have noticed, in contrast to previous rallies, Hashemi Rafsanjani from our updates today. Once events have settled, our analysis will probably have to account for a Green movement that can no longer for backing from or even convergence with the former President.

That doesn't mean, however, that the regime is not keeping an eye on Rafsanjani. Fars News has just posted a lengthy article claiming that his youngest son, Yaser, was leading a group of 50-100 protesters at 7 Tir Square. Police dispersed them and arrested some of the "goons", who had damaged property. Mehdi Karroubi was forced to leave the square after seeing no one had turned up.

1350 GMT: Another Snap Analysis (see 0920 GMT).

Just before noon, I had drafted a fairly pessimistic reading of today's events, based on the rather limited turnout of "thousands" (compared to expectations), the security forces' push-back against Mehdi Karroubi, and the lack of news from other leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi. Marchers had been unable to achieve their primary goal of getting to major gathering points for a mass statement.

Some of my EA colleagues still hold this view, but I'm now withdrawing my draft. There are too many spontaneous and re-routed gatherings to say that the Green movement has been suppressed. And the footage that we are coming from outside Tehran, more than in previous rallies, indicates that there is a spread of the opposition.

Moreover, while the quantity of protestors may be less than expected, the strength of the sentiment is not to be underestimated. Despite all the regime's intimidation and threats, demonstrators are openly calling the Supreme Leader a "murderer" and stomping on his picture. Security forces may able to use tear gas and bullets in the air to keep them from the largest squares but they cannot remove them from the streets.

There is a half-empty argument that the spread of protest through the city shows the weakness of the Green movement, as security forces can risk moving from the key points to pursue demonstrators through the city. The half-full response is that those protestors --- whether fleeing or chanting or standing firm --- are being seen.

13 Aban is now 14 hours old.

1345 GMT: We've Found Mousavi. Mir Hossein Mousavi was not at home this morning. He is at the Farhangestan Cultural Center, completely surrounded by plainsclothes security forces. Some have attacked and entered the building, while others are outside chanting.

1315 GMT: And Where is Mir Hossein Mousavi? According to Rah-e-Sabz, he is under house arrest since early morning, surrounded by security forces.

1305 GMT: More on the Karroubi Incident (see 0930 and 1054 GMT).

Mehdi Karroubi got out of his car about 1,800 feet away from 7 Tir Square. About 300 feet from the square, security forces stood before Karroubi and stopped him from going further. Tear gas was fired at where Karroubi stood. One of his guards was hit on the head with a shell and was hospitalized. Karroubi suffered skin irritation and small burns from the tear gas and was forced to leave the area.

Karroubi returned to his car, which was attacked by security forces and badly damaged. The car finally moved towards Motahhari Avenue; along the way, Karroubi got out of the car many times to talk to people. (hat tip to Josh Shahryar)

1220 GMT: Too Many Good Clips. So we've started a second set of videos to add to our first collection.

1205 GMT: Another City? Josh Shahryar has reports of a rally in Isfahan with 2000-3000 people.

1150 GMT: Next Green Wave? Reports of protests and clashes throughout Tehran, including Vali-e Asr Avenue and Square, in front of the dormintory at the Polytechnic, Beh-Afareen Avenue, and Hafez Avenue. People are moving towards Vanak Square.

1123 GMT: Oops! It appears that the Iranian Labor News Agency was a collateral-damage victim when the Government cut off communications today. It seems that ILNA was unable to update its website for hours because of disruptions to Internet service around Enghelab Square.

1054 GMT: So What Happened to Karroubi? One of Mehdi Karroubi's sons, Mohammad Taghi Karroubi, has spoken to Radio Farda about this morning's events in 7 Tir Square. He says Karroubi was prevented from reaching the square by police forces. Two bodyguards were injured, as well as many other people, as police forces shot tear gas canisters at Karroubi and the surrouding crowd. (One of the bodyguards is still in hospital.) Karroubi's son also says that his father did not pack up and go home but joined people in other squares.

1045 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, which seems to be back to full speed, has a lengthy summary of the morning's events. It adds Tabriz and Arak to the list of cities where protests have occurred.

1025 GMT: Regrouping. After what appears to be the setback at 7 Tir Square, Mehdi Karroubi's Tagheer website has put out a denunciation of the "forces of dictatorship" of the police, security forces, and Revolutionary Guard who have confronted the "thousands of Iranian people" who protested this morning.

The statement appears, at this point, to be an admission that numbers of marchers have been relatively low ("thousands" rather than "tens of thousands"), putting the blame on the oppression of the regime.

1000 GMT: More on Government Strategy - Constrict and Shut Down Opposition. It appears Mowj-e-Sabz, the best source inside Iran for developments today, is running sporadically and slowly.

0940 GMT: The Guardian is reporting, from "a contact", more clashes in Ghaem Magham Farahani street near 7 Tir Square with some people covered in blood.

Meanwhile, Josh Shahryar passes on reports that many people were detained this morning and held in Al-Javad mosque in Tehran. We are trying to verify.

0930 GMT: The Karroubi Story. Mowj-e-Sabz is claiming that Mehdi Karroubi was beaten by "pro-coup forces and thugs" when he joined marchers near 7 Tir Square. We are treating this claim with great caution until we can get further information.

0920 GMT: Deep Breath Time.

We're assessing here at end of Act One of today. So far, the headline events are disappointing for the Green movement: Mehdi Karroubi showed up at 7 Tir Square but soon had to withdraw (whether because of risk of violence, threat of arrest, or another reason is unclear). Security forces have prevented large gatherings at other major sites. And there has no sign of, or even word from, figures like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami.

On the other hand, it is still relatively early in the day. Following patterns of earlier encounters, including Qods Day, the anti-Government movement will now move into a series of hit-and-run protests throughout Tehran. And there is already news of marches in other cities. That alone should keep attention on the demonstrations.

But will there be motivation and opportunity for the scattered marches to merge into one large symbolic presence, taking this day beyond 30 July and Qods Day and reviving the first post-election mass demonstrations?

0915 GMT: Blinkered Media (3). From EA correspondent: IRIB's domestic channel is no longer showing live footage of the pro-Government rally. An "expert" in the studio is blasting Western media for making up stories of anti-Government protests: "They picked up footage from [our] News Channel but implied through their own subtitles that something else is happening on the streets of Tehran. They are implying that anti-Revolutionary activity is happening on the streets of Tehran."

0910 GMT: Reports of protests on Khogare Shomali Avenue in Tehran.

0905 GMT: We're bouncing back from a computer problem to bring you up to speed. Four videos from today --- three from Tehran, one from Rasht --- are posted in a separate entry.

Mowj-e-Sabz is reporting a large protest in Shiraz. That makes three cities besides Tehran where marches have been confirmed: Shiraz, Mazandaran, and Rasht.

0835 GMT: EA correspondent Mr Smith checks in to give a snap analysis:

The Revolutionary Guard wasn't joking. As feared, the threats were real.

No sign of Mousavi or Khatami--- they have been cowed off the streets. However,
the Ferdowsi Square clashes are significant, as Ferdowsi is nowhere close to the ruote of Karroubi. That shows the spontaneity of these protests. They are basically there alone --- no leader in sight --- which shows the "movement from below" nature of this crisis.

0830 GMT: Reuters is first "Western" news service to report, "Mousavi supporters clash with police in Tehran". BBC English has followed.

0825 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz is also reporting on clashes at Ferdowsi Square. Josh Shahryar is reporting that Internet connections have been severely disrupted inside Iran. Cellphone service sporadic.

0810 GMT: The Green movement's Mowj-e-Sabz is now posting on the morning events. It has pieces on Karroubi's march to join the crowd, shooting "at the crowds" (we are treating this as an exaggeration of shots fired in the air), beatings and arrests, and the Mazandaran protest.

0800 GMT: Momentum. We are now treating the reports of Karroubi in the crowd as confirmed; a second good source is carrying the news.

And news is coming in of protests outside Tehran. We are treating news of a gathering in Mazandaran in northern Iran as probable, and there are unconfirmed claims of protests in Shiraz, Arak, and Isfahan.

0750 GMT: A Big Moment? It is being reported that Mehdi Karroubi is moving towards 7 Tir Square to join crowds.

0745 GMT: Report that "100s walk towards 7 Tir square holding up V signs. No anti-government chants. Cars honk in heavy traffic jams".

And Josh Shahryar writes that he has confirmation that some people have been beaten up in the clashes at Tehran University and near 7 Tir Square.

0740 GMT: As with previous marches, we are in a tricky early phase where it is hard to separate truth from rumour on the clashes between security forces and protestors. At this point, it appears that the forces are trying to disperse the crowds, using tear gas and possibly firing shots into the air.

0730 GMT: Press TV English have now joined Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for live coverage of the pro-Government rally outside the US Embassy.

0725 GMT: Earlier this morning security forces arrested Mohsen Amoozadeh, a member of youth wing of the Mousavi campaign.

0715 GMT: Government Strategy Unfolds. Reports of clashes at 7 Tir Square and between University students and security forces, as Government attempts to keep people away from the major gathering points.

0710 GMT: Latest from Twitter:

1. Security forces are completely alert at Ferdowsi and are equipped with combat helmet, batons and tear gas.
2. Forces have taken over Enghelab [Square] across from Ferdowsi.

0700 GMT: The Regime Strategy. OK, I think I have a read on how the Government is trying to shut down this day of opposition. Seal off major gathering points such as 7 Tir Square and bottle up groups like University students from reaching them. Broadcast non-stop footage of the pro-Government rally outside the US Embassy and hope no one notices the protests.

So far they seem to have had some success, but we're getting reports of "thousands" in locations from 7 Tir Square to Laleh Park and this day has only begun.

0645 GMT: Blinkered Media (2). CNN, to its credit, is highlighting the Iran story, but it is off to a bad start. The anchor started the 0610 GMT report with, "Demonstrations are underway to mark the anniversary of the US Embassy siege, and some anti-establishment protests are also expected." However, because CNN's correspondent, Shirzad Bozorgmehr, is outside the US Embassy, he sees only the thousands of students and police and army cadets chanting  "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" and singing "nationalistic slogans".

Bozorgmehr continues, "I see no sign of counter-demonstrations by the opposition on the streets at all," which is not surprising since the Green rallies are beginning in other parts of Tehran. And so he keeps saying, "So far they haven't shown up."

0640 GMT: Latest reports via Twitter:

1. Helicopter are flying, roads are still filled with anti-riot and security police. People have not fully formed groups yet.
2. Tehran University students are leaving the university by chanting "Down with Dictator". Riot police are blocking students from exiting.

0630 GMT: Blinkered Media (Part 1). And how is Press TV covering 13 Aban so far? Live shots of pro-Government crowd outside the US Embassy with voiceover, "Iran marks 30th anniversary of seizure with anti-US rallies". Not a word, unsurprisingly, on gatherings elsewhere in Tehran.

And then the channel switches to a 30-minute profile of Jundallah, the Baluch insurgent group responsible for last month's suicide bombing in southwestern Iran.

0625 GMT: Your Comic Media Highlight of the Day.

I am not making this up. When we started blogging this morning, Press TV's English service was broadcasting a documentary called "Electile Dysfunction".

For a moment, I thought Iranian state media had decided, belatedly, to consider the incidents on and after the 12 June Presidential election. But only for a moment --- this was an old documentary on the corruptions, biases, and inequalities of the US electoral process.

0620 GMT: Reports that people starting to gather in 7 Tir Square. Also reported that Sharif University students are moving towards Tehran University in center of the city.

0600 GMT: We have posted the text of President Obama's statement on Iran. At first glance, it is extremely clever: Obama turns the history of the 1979 Embassy takeover into his desire to "move beyond this past and seek a relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran based upon mutual interests and mutual respect".

Obama then moves to the current nuclear talks --- "if Iran lives up to the obligations that every nation has, it will have a path to a more prosperous and productive relationship with the international community" --- but it is his shift to the situation inside Iran that is most significant. Having already declared, "We do not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs," he concludes:

Iran must choose. We have heard for thirty years what the Iranian government is against; the question, now, is what kind of future it is for. The American people have great respect for the people of Iran and their rich history. The world continues to bear witness to their powerful calls for justice, and their courageous pursuit of universal rights. It is time for the Iranian government to decide whether it wants to focus on the past, or whether it will make the choices that will open the door to greater opportunity, prosperity, and justice for its people.

To my knowledge, this is the first direct comment by a high-level US official, let alone Obama, on Iran's political situation since June.

0555 GMT: Initial reports from Iranian sources via Twitter:

1. There are reports of heavy anti-riot police and plainclothes present in 7 Tir [Square in Tehran].
2. Family friend from Shiraz: Military and Police surrounding TV and radio station.
3. All streets ending to former US Embassy are closed.

0550 GMT: EA correspondent Josh Shahryar has written a special analysis for 13 Aban, considering the Green movement in the context of the 1989 risings in Eastern Europe and China: "Fictions and Realities of 'Revolution'".

0530 GMT: Good morning.

It is 9 a.m., local time, in Tehran, and we are in place for a day which --- from my distant perception --- has produced the greatest excitement and highest expectation since early in the post-election crisis. As an EA reader summarised yesterday, putting 13 Aban in the context of the last mass march in Iran:

On Qods Day [18 September] we were full of fear and doubt. I personally didn’t know how big the crowd will be, we went out and throw our hearts at the sea.

Tommorw I have no doubts that there will be masses on the street. Tomorrow I have no fear when I march, for I have faced fear in the face, and won on Qods Day.

Only a fool would predict what is to unfold, but my fool's sense is that this gathering will surpass even the hundreds of thousands who emerged in various marches and gatherings on Qods Day. In the last six weeks, the Government has tried and failed to blunt, let alone crush the opposition movement. Mehdi Karroubi's symbolic appearance at the Iran Media Fair, Mir Hossein Mousavi's statements with renewed vigor and hope, the building university demonstrations, and just the amount of information and video reaching us and the world: all support our reader. Hope accompanies and possibly trumps fear, desires for the future trump resignation and passivity.

Today is 13 Aban.

Iran: Mehdi Karroubi's Son on 13 Aban Incidents

Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 3rd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 2nd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 1st Set)
The Latest from Iran (4 November — 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

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