The Latest from Iran (30 November): Nuclear Distraction, Trashing the Greens?

1915 GMT: Quiet Engagement. News is just emerging of five British nationals who have been held by Iran since their yacht Sail Bahrain strayed into Iranian waters on Wednesday.

The significance behind the headline is that the story was kept quiet for five days. That indicates that Britain does not want the matter to escalate into confrontation and that Iran, for now, does not want to use the detention for political advantage.

NEW Iran: How Washington Views the Green Opposition — The Next Chapter
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Today’s Iran Non-Story: Some Guy Who Looked Like Ahmadinejad Protested in 1984
Video: The Mothers of Martyrs Protest (28 November)
Iran: The Routes of 16 Azar
The Latest from Iran (29 November): Iran’s Nuclear Bluff

1830 GMT: Just for the Nuclear Record. Iranian Foreign Manouchehr Mottaki used a press conference with the Russian Energy Minister (who confirmed Moscow's intention to complete the Bushehr nuclear plant by March 2010) to denounce the IAEA resolution:

We could not find any logical reason for the Board of Governors' decision. We cannot accept discrimination in international relations. Either there are rights or such rights do not exist. The age of discriminatory policies is over. This is the law of the jungle.

Nothing surprising here and no further indication as to Iran's next step.

1625 GMT: Mehdi Karoubi, in an interview on his website Tagheerwebsite (official website of Etemad-Melli party), responded to accusations from Kayhan newspaper:

I really did not want to point out the arrogance of these guys but when I saw that they repeatedly are talking about “conspiracy”, denying their role in the events after the election, and are influencing the Judiciary system, I decided to respond....My message to the management of Kayhan newspaper is that the our interpretation of Islam is different than yours.

1610 GMT: President Postponed. It appears that President Ahmadinejad's national broadcast (see 0715 GMT) has been postponed to Tuesday night.

1555 GMT: A Detainee Speaks. Amidst a slower afternoon, interesting revelations from Behzad Nabavi, the high-profile reform activist who has recently been given a six-year prison sentence. Nabavi is free on a 10-day release pending appeal: "They asked me the night before my release to sign a paper and agree not to engage in political activities or conduct interviews until the appeals court hearing; they told me not to meet or contact political parties and organizations, but I refused. When they couldn't close the deal with me they gave me [only] a 10-day break from prison [instead]."

Nabavi claimed that the former Tehran Prosecutor General, Saeed Mortazavi, was present for at least one of his interrogations. He also claims that his arrest warrant had been issued on 9 June, three days before the Presidential elections (and six days before the supposed basis for his "crime", presence at the mass demonstration on 15 June).

1255 GMT: Larijani Baffles (Part 2). I have a hunch --- and nothing more -- that Ali Larijani, with his statement on the nuclear programme this morning, is setting himself up as an alternative to President Ahmadinejad, both for elements in the Iranian establishment and for the "West".

But who is the target of this Larijani statement, keeping in mind the shaky translation of the Iranian Labour News Agency: "Commenting on the post-election events, the speaker remarked that the unjustified persistence of certain people on their own views would only benefit others"?

1220 GMT: Report that journalist Hengameh Shahidi has been sentenced to six years, three months, and one day in prison.

1204 GMT: Larijani Baffles. Press TV has summarised this morning's comments by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani:

I believe there is still room for diplomacy and it is useful for them [the "5+1 powers] to adopt a diplomatic option. That way Iran would be able to make progress within the framework of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) while they would also be certain that Iran activities are peaceful. But of course, if they choose to take a different path Iran would also adopt a different stance.

Here's what puzzles me: given Larijani's hostility to the diplomatic process pursued by the Ahmadinejad Government in recent months, criticising apparent Iranian concessions, why is he now embracing "room for diplomacy"? Why not celebrate the apparent demise of the Ahmadinejad strategy?

Suggestions welcomed.

1200 GMT: This is Interesting. Just over a week before the protests of 16 Azar, students from Amir Kabir University have met Mehdi Karroubi in his home.

1100 GMT: Ahmadinejad and Latin America. An EA reader points us to an intriguing discussion between Mohsen Milani, Aram Hessami and Babak Dad, "What is Ahmadinejad searching for in the USA's backyard?" The reader notes Dad's provocative speculation that one purpose of the President's recent tour of Latin America was to prepare a "safe haven" if one should be noted for him and his allies.

1020 GMT: Montazeri Criticises "lllegal" Violence. Lots of chatter this morning about a video of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri denouncing post-election violence by Basiji militia, betraying its mission “unite and mobilise everyone on the path to God not to the path of evil”.

There's more. Montazeri also implicitly attacks the Supreme Leader for his thanks to the Basiji for "defeating the enemy in the events after election”: “Isn’t it a misery that one [i.e., the Basiji] goes to hell (in afterlife) for the wellbeing of others in this world?!” (Summary of remarks on Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi)

0940 GMT: You Might Want to Be More Subtle. The head of Iran's nuclear organisation, Ali Akhbar Salehi, kind of gives the political game away today:

We had no plan to build many nuclear sites like Natanz [enrichment facility but it seems that the West do not want to comprehend Iran's message of peace. The West adopted an attitude toward Iran which made the Iranian government to pass the ratification on construction of ten sites.

Hmm....So you haven't make any previous moves to build beyond the enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordoo but now you've going to throw all your resources at a crash construction programme because of Friday's IAEA resolution?

Wouldn't back Salehi as a poker player: this is either clumsy deception --- Iran has already started on other sites --- or clumsy bluff.

0930 GMT: We've posted the second part of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari's interview with CNN. We've also been moved by his comments on the Green movement(s) to consider again how Washington may be viewing (and belittling) the opposition.

0810 GMT: Blackout. Fears are growing that, in addition to "containing" the protest of 16 Azar (7 December) through a 48-hour holiday just before it, the Government may try to pull the curtains down on it through a cutoff of Internet and mobile phone service.

0730 GMT: Sigh. The coverage of Iran this morning on the BBC's flagship radio programme? Declare "time is running out" for Tehran, then turn over seven minutes of airtime just after 7 a.m. to the Israeli Ambassador to the UK, Ron Prosor for comments such as: "Iranians are not just carpet makers but carpet weavers; they will divide one red line into 100 pink lines and then cross the red line"; "Israel's nuclear capability is irrelevant in the current situation"; "all options are on the table".

0720 GMT: Russia Mending Political/Nuclear Fences? Russian energy minister Sergei Shmatko, in Iran for talks with his Iranian counterpart and other officials, has pledged that Iran's first nuclear power station will soon be completely. Shmatko said earlier this month that the Bushehr plant would be delayed beyond its announced opening date of the end of 2009.

The political significance of Shmatko's statement overshadows the technical dimension: days after supporting the International Atomic Energy Agency resolution, Moscow is tacking back politically towards Iran. That means some continuing level of co-operation (though the Russians can always dangle and pull back support) and no sanctions.

0715 GMT: President Ahmadinejad will speak on national television this evening.

0645 GMT: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is now holding a press conference on Iranian television.

0630 GMT: Reality Check. Here are two reasons, courtesy of Gary Sick, why the Iran Government's nuclear announcement is "all mouth and no trousers".

The declaration of 10 enrichment plants is for 500,000 centrifuges. In the last nine years, Iran has constructed and installed fewer than 9000 centrifuges, of which only about half are operating. At that rate, the plans announced yesterday will be completed in the year 2509.

According to documents, construction began on the second enrichment site at Fordoo in 2003. There are still no centrifuges installed, and the site is due for completion in 2011.

At that rate, 10 enrichment plants would take 80 years to construct, if they were built one after another. If they were all pursued at the same time, it would put great strain on Iranian resources and manpower, to say the least. What's more, the proposed plants would be the same size as Iran's primary enrichment facility at Natanz, much larger than Fordoo.

0610 GMT: One week before the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December), but all the headlines are far away from the internal conflict in Iran. The Ahmadinejad Government's declaration of "10 new enrichment plants" has successfully walked the international media down a nuclear garden path, even though the proposal at this point is a fantasy. In addition to our coverage in yesterday's updates, we'll have further analysis laying out both the technical and political realities later this morning.

However, while Tehran's move is political symbolism, it reinforces the mood in the US that engagement is now a long-shot. A clear sign of that is in Trita Parsi's piece for The Huffington Post, "Washington Can Give An Israeli Attack On Iran The Red Light". That headline in itself is a hyperbolic diversion --- for reasons beyond the Obama Administration, Israel will not be launching military operations --- but it shows that Parsi, the President of the National Iranian American Council and a fervent supporter of a political settlement with Iran, has now all but given up on the process.

The Latest from Iran (21 November): Mousavi, Khomeini, and Ahmadinejad

NEW Latest Iran Video and English Text: Mousavi Interview with Kalemeh (21 November)
NEW Latest Iran Video: “The Stone Victory” over the Basiji on 13 Aban
Iran: The Ahmadinejad Speech in Tabriz (19 November)
Iran: Green Message to Obama “Back Us Instead of Dealing With Ahmadinejad”
The Latest from Iran (20 November): Manoeuvres in Washington

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2035 GMT: An advance copy of Michael Slackman's article on Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, published in Sunday's New York Times, is on-line.

2030 GMT: An Iranian activist is offering a running summary of the Government's crackdown on students through arrests and detentions as well as disciplinary action by Universities.

1840 GMT: A Mousavi Trial? Mohammad Nabi Habibi, Secretary-General of the conservative Islamic Coalition Party, has demanded that Mir Hossein Mousavi be prosecuted for claiming that the Presidential election was rigged, "I believe both Mousavi and all those who propagated this big lie must face trial in a court of law."

1810 GMT: We've posted the video and Engish text of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with Kalemeh (see 1550 GMT for summary).

1600 GMT: Magically Appearing Crowd. We opened this morning (0745 GMT) with photographic confirmation of the disappointing crowd at President Ahmadinejad's Thursday speech in Tabriz. Kayhan, the firmly pro-Government newspaper, has published pictures, but suddenly the empty bleachers are filled with people.

No one around here is saying Photoshop. Really.

1550 GMT: 1st summary of Mousavi Interview....

People should know what the government has done with $200 billion of oil revenues in the last two years. The Majlis [Parliament] should be criticized for not controlling and overseeing Government expenditures. It is not possible to have consumer prices based on international market prices and wages based on national standards and remove subsidies.

The scope of deployment of forces on the streets on #13Aban was unprecedented. When I walked out of my office on 13 Aban [4 November demonstrations] and saw the number of forces deployed, I thought this in itself is a victory for the Green movement. [Mousavi was under effective detention throughout the day, surrounded in his offices by pro-Government activists.]

1520 GMT: Copies of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with Kalemeh are now circulating. We'll have a summary within an hour.

1210 GMT: Today's Media Nonsense. David Frum, the Bush speechwriter who claims to have given the world the phrase "Axis of Evil", wields an aggressive pen in Canada's National Post over "Tehran's Last Chance".

Frum begins by misunderstanding the dynamics of the current negotiations over uranium enrichment. That's OK, his forte is words rather than any comprehension of politics. But then he goes overboard with his Sketch of Doom: The Iranians could not make their message clearer if they had sent a crayoned letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency: 'We're building a bomb--and you don't dare stop us. Boom boom, suckers.'"

And the solution? Just a few missiles from Tel Aviv: "Once again --- as with the Israeli strike on Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981, and the Israeli strike at Syria's nuclear reactor in 2007 --- the peace of the region and possibly the world will depend on Israeli strength and courage."

0940 GMT: A Bit More on the Iran-Turkey "Big Push". Yesterday we paid a great deal of attention to the Turkish Foreign Minister's visit to President Ahmadinejad in Tabriz, linking it to Tehran's counter-proposal for an uranium enrichment agreement. Mr Smith noted the pay-off of the Nabucco gas pipeline deal, which would link Turkey and Iran in one of the biggest projects of the 21st century.

Today's Press TV story: "More support for Iran to join Nabucco"

0930 GMT: Nukes, Nukes, Nukes. President Ahmadinejad, pushing for the deal that will shore up his legitimacy, followed up his Thursday address in Tabriz with a nationally-televised speech on Friday night. He embraced more talks with the "West" while contining the theme of negotiating from strength:

Today, the only tool in the hands of [our] enemies is to wage a psychological war and raise the hue and cry; but they know well that threats will have no impact on the Iranian nation....The resistance of the Iranian nation has repelled threats against Tehran.

The Iranian nation welcomes talks and interaction and presses any hand extended for cooperation. But if its dignity and rights are not respected, the nation will not give up its rights.

0900 GMT: A well-placed EA source gives us an exclusive:

This week is the Week of Basij [militia]. What is interesting is that General Naqdi, the new Basij commender, and his companions went to Imam Khomeini's shrine, but Seyed Hassan Khomeini [the Imam's grandson] did not show up to welcome them.

Seyyed Hassan did not welcome Ahmadinejad, his Cabinet, or the head of police, but when Hashemi Rafsanjani visited the Shrine he warmly greeted him. This is could be why Ayatollah Khamenei invited Seyyed Hassan to see him on Thursday "to give him some advice".

0815 GMT: Former Minister of Culture Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi, who was dismissed by the President in the controversy over the choice of First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has criticised Ahmadinejad in Ayande News. He claims that the President is arrogant, too easily trusts people such as Mashai, and does not accept advice.

0810 GMT: More Rumblings from Parliament. Ahmad Tavakoli, the high-profile member of Parliament and ally of the Larijanis, has declared that Ahmadinejad’s demands from the Parliament are illegal. He warned that if those demands were accepted, this would lead to the closure of a Parliament which was failing to function.

0755 GMT: Salaam News has a lengthy interview with Hossein Marashi, who is close to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. What is interesting, beyond the clear disappointment with the Iranian system accompanied by the declaration that Rafsanjani "more than anyone else" is loyal to that system and its leadership, is Marashi's attention to the "reformists" and the Green Wave. While emphasizing that "public anger is serious", he is equally emphatic about the need for "communities of leadership" for the movement.

(Note: given what I think is a significant interview and our attention to the development and future of the opposition, I would be grateful for any comments and further translation of key sentences of this article.)

0745 GMT: Catching up with bits and pieces. An EA reader finally gave us the visuals we wanted on the crowd for Ahmadinejad's Thursday speech in Tabriz.

Picture 1 is from the Presidential campaign; pictures 2 and  3 are from Thursday.

Iran: What Happened on Election Night? The Ghalam News Editor's Account

The Latest in Iran (19 November): It’s the Nukes Today

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Abdofazl Fateh was the editor of Ghalam News, a publication close to Mir Hossein Mousavi before it was shut down by the Iranian Government. His account of what happened on the night of the Presidential election, 12 June, has re-surfaced.

Alongside the account of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, which we published on 25 August, Fateh's recollection puts forth the story of an opposition that feared manipulation of the results. Indeed, that fear prompted one of the key moves of the crisis, Mousavi's decision to hold a press conference before the votes were announced. The subsequent decision to write a letter to the Supreme Leader about the concerns brought this response from the head of Ayatollah Khamenei's security, Mr Vahid: "From his words I sensed that I must consider the election over. He said that he had sent a reminder to the Interior Ministry about the way they plan to announce the results, but he said that Mr. Ahmadinejad would win by a big margin."

Thanks to Pedestrian for the translation:

Thursday morning [11 June] we had consecutive meetings with Mr. Mousavi. The main topic of discussion was the provisions for election day. Numerous reports had reached people in the campaign which made us really worried about the election process. Supervising the ballot boxes was of serious concern to us.

Mir Hossein Mousavi chose a number of friends to follow up on these issues in parallel. One problem was that the text messaging service had been completely shut down by the ministry.

It was planned that Mousavi would vote in one of the mosques in the south of Tehran. This mosque was called the grand Jameh mosque in Rey [an old city in the south of Tehran]. Around 11 p.m. on Thursday, the time and place of Mousavi’s voting was put up on the Ghalam’s website [Mousavi's main webiste].

When I went to that mosque on Friday morning, a large group of reporters were there. Mr. Mousavi voted alongside Mrs. Rahnavard and went up to the podium of the mosque to give a talk for a very short time. He was saying that we will stay up tonight when the microphone was shut off.

We returned to the campaign headquarters right away. Mousavi was following the news. Reports that came from various election centers one after another indicated that the turnout was outstanding. Most of the reports pointed to a greater turnout for Mousavi.

It was only a few hours into voting day that pro-Government outlets and websites reported that Ahmadinejad had won. But reports indicated that we would be winning by a big margin.

Everyone was filled with an indescribable sense of happiness. A report was read by the Voter Protection Office. Many of the election centers were reporting very, very slow lines, the shortage of ballots, and various obstacles faced by voters. But, the combination of announced results we were getting indicated that Mousavi was well ahead.

Mousavi was continuously calling the heads of Parliament and judiciary, the leader’s office, and the Supreme Administrative Court to tell them about the problems and obstacles voters were facing.

Complaints were increasing minute by minute. In many voting centers, the ballots were finished. But nothing was done about it. We all came to the conclusion that this was a planned move on the part of the organizers of the election. It was apparent that they had no desire to get extra ballots to the centers, or to speed up the process or to extend voting hours. Reports told us that some voting centers had closed as early as 4 p.m. Even though hour by hour voting was to be extended to 10 p.m. many voting centers were closed before then, and even some people who had stood for hours in line did not get to vote.

Around 4 in the afternoon, someone called Mir Hossein Mousavi and told him that some have reached the decision to announced a 19 [million] vs. 14 [million] win for Ahmadinejad. Mousavi called the officials to let them know.

Around 6 p.m. in the afternoon, Mousavi wrote a letter to the Leader asking him to intervene and correct the voting irregularities we were continuously hearing.

Around 10 p.m. we heard some news that some are going to announce the end of the election with a win for Ahmadinejad. This is when counting votes had not started yet across the country.

Mousavi had a press conference and gave a warning regarding the counting process and mentioned some of the irregularities that had been reported.

Around 11 p.m. Mousavi wrote a confidential letter to the Leader, I transferred the letter to the Leader’s home/office myself and gave it to Mr. Vahid. We spoke for a few minutes and from his words I sensed that I must consider the election over. He said that he had sent a reminder to the interior ministry about the way they plan to announce the results, but he said that Mr. Ahmadinejad would win by a big margin. I told him that from all reports, eyewitness accounts, data and all logical assessment, it was just the opposite of what he was claiming.

After handing the letter, I came back to Mousavi. All our friends were there. Mousavi told the story to every single person and sought their advice. Everyone was dumbstruck. Nobody believed this result. And no report of such an outcome was sent to us by the officers overlooking the election centers [across the country]. After talking to everyone, Mousavi said: “the elections are people’s rights. I can’t give up people’s rights. I’m going to see this through and until this lie is cleared up, I will share the accounts of it with the people.”

The newspaper had been ordered not to headline anything that would predict the results. The Green Word [Mousavi's paper] had such a headline ready and was not permitted to run it. But, reports indicated that Iran and Kayhan newspapers were going to run a headline announcing Ahmadinejad’s victory [note, at this point, the final results had not yet been announced]. IRNA and Fars had already declared Ahmadinejad the winner.

Mousavi left the meeting at around 2 in the morning. We were all talking to one another and everybody was trying to come up with a solution but the results announced by the interior ministry were so great that it was obvious they were leaving no room for argument or protest.

Around 4 in the morning I heard that there had been disperse confrontations in the campaign headquarters and tear gas had been thrown [the headquarters were later raided].

Near the early hours of the morning, there were some in the street honking their horns, happy with victory.

I speak to Hamid Rasaee. Fourth months ago he’d said that Ahmadinejad would win 23 million votes and that he would surpass the 22 million votes for President Khatami in 1997. He’d said that Mousavi would have around 10 million votes. I wasn’t as smart as he was, I congratulated him on his prediction.

In the morning, we met up again and spoke among ourselves. Then we went to see Mousavi. He was sitting there, calm and collected as always. He read his statement for us.

The phone is constantly ringing. Everybody is startled, some are crying, some are screaming. Some are depressed, others worried. When I look at Mousavi, I too am ashamed and I can’t help but cry. I seek refuge in the presence of the lord and hope that he will watch over you. Alas! The diary had to end this way …